North Korean Economy Watch

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
NK Brief No. 08-1-10-1
1/10/2008

The net worth of inter-Korean exchanges totaled 1,797,890,000 USD in 2007, up 33% from the 1.35 billion USD in the previous year. Exchanges between the two Koreas began in 1989, and topped one billion dollars for the first time in 2005. The almost 1.8 billion dollars in trade recorded in 2007 is the highest to date, and is equal to 65 percent of North Korea’s non-Korean trade volume of 2.996 billion USD in 2006.

Inter-Korean commercial trade was worth 1,431,170,000 USD, 54 percent higher than the 928 million USD in 2006, while non-commercial trade fell 13 percent, from 421,660,000 dollars in 2006 to only 366,720,000 dollars last year. Overall, commercial trade made up over 80 percent of cross-border exchanges, proving that inter-Korean exchanges continue to grow based on commercial transactions. Commercial trade growth was centered around the mining and fishery sectors (52 percent) and increased production in the Kaesong Industrial Complex (48 percent). Textiles and other goods processed on commission also grew by 30 percent.

Additional manufacturing by companies entering the KIC, as well as the installment of equipment used to increase output by those manufacturers already established in the first phase of the complex, saw a great jump last year. Additionally, South Korea loaned the North 80 million USD for equipment, cloth, soap, polyester fibers, synthetic leather, and other materials to be used in light industry, while the North repayed 2.4 million USD (3 percent) of the loan by delivering 1,000 tons of zinc. This was the first example of the North repaying funds to the South, and shows opportunities for the two Koreas to fulfill each other’s needs and carry out friendly economic cooperation in the future.

With increases in domestic use and export of Bukhan Mountain’s minerals and timber, improvements in communications, customs, and transport issues at the KIC and a growing number of companies moving into the complex leading to an increase in production and manufacturing activity, inter-Korean exchanges are expected to continue to grow in the future.

In the 1980s Pepsi went on sale in the Soviet Union [as did eventually Coke].  Since the hard currency needed to buy the syrup was scarce, the Soviets traded it for Vodka (which they presumably had plenty of)–At least this is what I was able to piece together when I visited the USSR as a teenager.

Yonhap (January 4, 2008) reports that North Korea has adopted the same basic strategy to repay its external debts.  This is a positive move on the part of the North because it is the first time the North has made an effort at repaying its external bills.

(excerpt from Yonhap)  The South-North Korea Exchanges and Cooperation Support Association said 500 tons of North Korean-produced zinc, worth about US$1.2 million, arrived in the port of Incheon on Thursday and was unloaded on Friday. It was the second repayment by the communist country for economic assistance provided by Seoul.

Although the amount agreed upon by both countries for 2007 has been paid in full, the installment represents only 3 percent of the North’s total debt to South Korea [appx. USD$80 million]. Pyongyang had agreed to pay Seoul with $2.4 million worth of mineral ore to reimburse it for aid.

[…]reportedly mark[ing] the first time the North has redeemed any of its debt.

Yonhap
12/28/2007

The total output of a South Korea-built industrial complex in North Korea’s border town of Kaesong totaled over US$180 million this year, shooting up 150 percent from a year ago, Seoul’s Unification Ministry said on Friday.

“The total production by businesses at the Kaesong industrial complex recorded an estimated $185 million this year, up about 150 percent from $74 million last year,” the ministry said in a press release.

Korea Times
Yoon Won-sup
12/9/2007

South Korea will provide 5,100 tons of steel plates to North Korea on Dec. 17 in a six-party deal that involves the provision of energy or alternatives to North Korea in exchange for the North’s disablement of its nuclear facilities by year’s-end, government officials said Sunday.

U.S. President George W. Bush sent a personal letter to North Korean leader Kim Jong-il last week urging him to keep his word on the disablement and declaration by Dec. 31.

The shipment is the first alternative to oil sent to the North under the agreement, although participants in the six-way talks have been taking turns to provide 50,000 tons of heavy fuel oil to the North every month recently.

Yonhap
12/8/2007

A ship carrying 1,400 tons of tangerines will leave Sunday for North Korea from a port on this southern island of South Korea to help promote peace and reconciliation between the two Korean states, island officials said Saturday.

They said that the tangerines grown by local farmers have been loaded onto a 3,500-ton ship, which will set sail for the North on Sunday afternoon. With crews including three South Koreans, the Panama-registered ship will arrive at Nampo, a western port town of North Korea, Tuesday, they said.

This is the first batch of 10,000 tons of tangerines that will be sent to the North this year. The officials said that the remainder will be delivered by the end of January next year at the latest.

They said that Jeju Island has sent 36,488 tons of tangerines and 17,100 tons of carrots to the North since 1998. It was humanitarian aid designed to promote peace and co-existence between the two Koreas, which remain technically at war after the 1950-53 Korean War ended in a truce instead of a peace treaty.

Yonhap
11/7/2007

Bilateral trade between the two Koreas increased by 23 percent in the first 10 months of the year due mainly to an increase in shipments of goods produced at the South Korea-built industrial complex in the communist North, the Unification Ministry said Wednesday.

The two-way trade volume jumped to nearly US$1.44 billion in the January-October period, up from $1.16 billion from a year earlier, according to the ministry.

“The rise mainly comes from a 48 percent increase in the amount of goods shipped from Kaesong,” a ministry official said, adding trade in some other areas, such as minerals and fisheries, increased by nearly 50 percent year-on-year.

Exchanges in non-commercial areas, however, dropped by 18 percent, according to the ministry official.

Seoul hopes cross-border trade will continue to increase over the coming years as the sides are about to launch a second development plan to expand the Kaesong industrial complex, where about two dozen South Korean companies are currently employing some 10,000 North Korean workers.

The joint industrial complex is expected to house over 2,000 South Koreans businesses and employ as many as 500,000 North Koreans when it is fully developed by a target year of 2012.

President Roh Moo-hyun and North Korean leader Kim Jong-il have also agreed to develop the North’s western Haeju area as a special economic district in the second-ever inter-Korean summit held in the North Korean capital of Pyongyang early last month.

Yonhap
10/19/2007

South Korea has spent nearly 4 trillion won (US$4.36 billion) over the last six years to provide rice and fertilizer to North Korea, the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry said Friday.

In a report forwarded to lawmakers for this year’s parliamentary audit, the ministry said Seoul spent 3.33 trillion won to send 2.2 million tons of rice to Pyongyang from 2002 to August of this year.

It said 400,000 tons of rice were shipped every year from 2002 to 2004, while 500,000 tons were shipped in 2005. Numbers dropped to 100,000 tons last year after Pyongyang fired off rockets and exploded a nuclear device.

This year, 400,000 tons have been sent to make up for poor harvest in the North.

Of the total, 2.1 million tons of rice were sent as low interest, long-term loans to be paid back in 20 years after a grace period of 10 years.

The ministry said 620 billion won were spent to send about 2 million tons of fertilizer to the North in the cited period.

Opposition lawmakers claimed the government had diverted 2.18 trillion won from the country’s grain management special account to provide North Korea with agricultural support.

“The grain account is aimed at helping local farmers. but the government is using it to supplement the inter-Korean cooperation fund,” said Rep. Hong Moon-pyo of the conservative Grand National Party.

He said that because it will take some time to recover the money, any shortcomings in the grain fund will have to come from the regular account and that will create a burden for taxpayers.

The government asked lawmakers to approve 909.6 billion won for next year’s inter-Korean cooperation fund. This year, the fund amounts to 870.4 billion won.

The money will be used to send 500,000 tons of rice and 400,000 tons of fertilizer to North Korea.

Joong Ang Daily (via AFP)
10/19/2007

If floods and bad weather aggravate already chronic food shortages, North Korea may face new famines next year, a leading expert in Seoul warned yesterday.

Floods and storms, followed by outbreaks of blight and insect-related damage, deprived the impoverished nation of about 10 percent of its fall harvest this year, said Kwon Tae-Jin, research director of the Korea Rural Economic Institute.

“North Korea is likely to face very serious food shortages next year, and barring very generous help from abroad, we may see something like the 1995-98 famine,” Kwon told AFP.

That famine reportedly killed hundreds of thousands of people.

Kwon said North Korea needs at least 5.3 million tons of food to feed its 23 million people from now until next year’s harvest. But its own food production is expected to come to only 3.9 million ton, leaving a shortfall of 1.4 million.

South Korea is the North’s biggest aid provider, supplying it with 400,000 tons of food every year. Seoul is expected to increase this aid to 500,000 tons next year.

North Korea imports about 200,000 to 300,000 tons of food every year, but must rely on outside help to plug the remaining gap, Kwon said.

Paul Risley, Asia spokesman for the World Food Programme in Bangkok, said some food aid was sent directly to the North, including from China. Nonetheless, there is a significant gap between the amount of food available and the amount actually required, Risley told AFP, citing UN figures.

“This is a very serious concern, and it’s quite clear from the most recent estimate of food commodities that are available … that the DPRK [North Korea] will once again this year face a very significant gap between the amount of cereal, such as corn and rice, available and the amount of food required for its population,” he said.

He said the World Food Programme provides a “relatively small amount of food assistance” to millions of the most vulnerable, including several hundred thousand victims of August floods.

North Korea was already reliant on international aid to help make up a food shortfall of 1 million tons ― 20 percent of its needs ― even before the August rains.

Yonhap
9/24/2007

North Korea is becoming more transparent and effective in dealing with disasters, spurred by both internal and external factors, an Asia-Pacific regional specialist said in his latest paper.

Dr. Alexandre Mansourov, a securities studies professor at the Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies (APCSS) in Hawaii, noted five trends in the North Korean government’s responses over the past decade to nationwide shocks, including floods, typhoons, drought and avian influenza outbreaks.

Increasing transparency is one of the trends, with Pyongyang more quickly admitting to disasters that have struck the nation, he said in a paper (download here) released last week through the Korea Economic Institute in Washington.

It took North Korea several years to admit the impact of natural disasters in the mid-1990s that led to massive starvation and chronic food shortages. But in August 2000, when it was hit by Typhoon Prapiroon, North Korea released the news three weeks after it occurred, and in the two following years, when other typhoons struck, North Korea reported it within three to six days, Mansourov said.

Pyongyang immediately acknowledged flooding in August 2007, he said.

“Observers agree that the timeliness, details, and amount of coverage of flood damage and rehabilitation work in August 2007 is unprecedented.”

North Korea is also showing institutional knowledge and a capacity for disaster management, with new organizations growing out of a decade of learning and experience, such as various provincial centers, the professor said.

The North Korean Red Cross Society has been exceptional, he said, working with the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, and has made itself the leading agency in disaster preparedness and response.

Inter-agency coordination has also increased, with deputy prime minister-level working groups working closely together in each disaster since the flood of 2001, as there are preventive programs through which basic relief supplies are stored in town and villages.

For example, the 10-year strategy against avian influenza, worked out by the emergency commission in 2005, would have been unthinkable a decade ago, Mansourov wrote.

Another notable trend is the increasing cooperation between the North Korean government and international humanitarian community, gradually allowing joint needs assessments and monitoring, he noted.

Mansourov argued that external factors helped bring about the changes.

“International factors did make a difference in what happened in (North Korea), especially through the introduction of innovative ideas and dissemination of best humanitarian practices,” in addition to foreign aid, he said.

The scholar also argued that while the country’s top leader, Kim Jong-il, does control any institutional changes, there is also adaptation driven by needs.

“There has been some degree of autonomous institutional learning and adaptation; it is incremental in nature and caused by both positive and negative feedback from the environment regarding institutional performance in crisis situations,” he said.

Yonhap
9/21/2007

North Korea is at serious risk from contagious diseases following damage from recent floods, an official from North Korea’s Red Cross told a newspaper in Japan on Friday.

In an interview with the Chosun Sinbo, a pro-North Korean newspaper in Japan, Kim Eun-chul, a vice secretary-general at the Red Cross Society of North Korea, said, “What we are most concerned with now is the spread of infectious diseases in the severely damaged areas.”

“The destruction of the water supply facilities could result in various diseases including skin diseases and diarrhea, as well as flue.”

Kim showed his anxiety, saying that the communist country would not be able to cope with the diseases when they broke out, as many of the North’s public health centers are also destroyed from floods.

“More than 560 hospitals were destroyed and 2,100 medical offices were damaged. The medical supplies were wet and useless. We can’t even read charts as they were soaked,” he said.

“New patients with diarrhea are reported one after another. We are now relying solely on the emergency medicines provided by the International Federation of the Red Cross and Red Crescent (IFRC).”

The IFRC shipped US$1,69 million worth of medical aid to North Korea earlier this month, which can be used for three months, according to Kim.