North Korean Economy Watch

According to the Associated Press:

Military officials from the two Koreas communicated through new fiber-optic cables to help facilitate the travel of 330 South Koreans heading to an industrial complex in the North on Wednesday, Unification Ministry spokeswoman Lee Jong-joo said.

South Korea has sent fiber-optic cables and other equipment to the North to help its communist neighbour modernize its military hot lines with the South, she said.

The new hot lines replaced outdated copper cable hot lines that will remain as spare lines, said Lee, the spokeswoman.

The new hot lines will serve as a key mode of communication for border crossings for people travelling to and from the joint industrial complex at the North Korean border town of Kaesong, she added.

I assume the upgrade to fiber optic means that the bureaucracy of border crossing has been computerized.  Rather than reading information across the phone line border officials can now send it electronically (including photos) to speed up processing on the North Korean side of the border.

Read the full story here:
Divided Koreas open new, updated military hot lines to facilitate border crossings
Associated Press (via Winnipeg Free Press)
12/29/2009

According to Yohnap:

Production at the Kaesong complex reached US$27 million in October, up 12.1 percent from $24 million a month earlier, the Unification Ministry said. The October figure also represents a 16.9 percent increase from a year ago.

The overall increase was attributed notably to strong output from machinery and electronics manufacturers, which climbed 26.2 percent and 25.5 percent, respectively. Foodstuff and textile goods also enjoyed 24.9 percent and 8.6 percent increases, respectively.

Exports from the complex, however, shrank 9.1 percent from a month ago to $3.11 million, mostly due to a decline in machinery shipments, according to the ministry.

There are currently 116 South Korean firms operating in Kaesong, matching their capital and technology with the cheap but skilled labor of 42,000 North Korean employees.

Read the full article below:
Production at Kaesong complex rises in October
Yonhap
12/29/2009

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
NK Brief No.09-11-30-1

In an effort to seek new ways to develop the inter-Korean joint industrial complex in Kaesong, it is expected that the first joint complex between China and Vietnam will be inspected in the middle of next month. According to a high-ranking official in the South Korean Ministry of Unification, “If the Kaesong Industrial Complex (KIC) is to be made into an internationally competitive industrial complex, [we] need to take a close look at the processes and structure of the international market,” and, “In order to develop the KIC, we decided to inspect a foreign industrial complex, and the North has agreed.”

This inspection was agreed upon during the second round of inter-Korean working level talks in June, and is being looked at as a breakthrough in restarting talks between officials from the North and the South. The source added, “The thought is that the inspection will be of a China-Vietnam industrial complex,” and, “If this overseas inspection goes well, the 3-C problem (Communication, Conveyance, Customs) and issues of visits and sojourns by South Koreans in the complex, dormitories for the North Korean workers, the construction of roads for coming to and from work, and other issues will be advanced.”

The inspection team will include 10 officials from North Korea and 10 from the South, and plans to visit the site for ten days beginning on the 12th of next month. The South Korean delegation is expected to include representatives from the Ministry of Unification, the Ministry of Knowledge Economy, Korea Land Corporation, and members of the KIC management committee. The agreement between the two Koreas to inspect an overseas industrial zone is seen as a sign that inter-Korean relations are improving. It appears that North Korea is continuing to work toward improving inter-Korean relations.

At the very least, it looks like this inspection will foster an atmosphere in which Seoul and Pyongyang can resolve all of the problems, listed above, surrounding the KIC. In June of 2007, 14 Koreans, 7 from the North and 7 from the South, spent ten days and nine nights inspecting the joint Chinese-Vietnamese industrial complex, so expectations are that this visit will further boost inter-Korean relations and KIC competitiveness.

This story was also reported in the Joong Ang Ilbo:

The Unification Ministry announced yesterday that 10 officials from ech country will visit China and Vietnam for about 10 days in mid-December. Ministry spokesman Chun Hae-sung said the two Koreas will continue to discuss detailed itineraries and the makeup of the delegations. Chun added that the trip will be financed by the South’s inter-Korean cooperation fund. It is the third such joint trip to overseas industrial sites, but the first during the Lee Myung-bak administration. The previous two trips took place in June 2005 and March 2007.

The two Koreas have held four rounds of mostly fruitless working-level discussions on Kaesong this year and wrangled over land use fees and wage increases. During the second meeting in June, the South proposed a joint overseas trip, and Chun said the North recently agreed. “We hope the trip will allow the two Koreas to build a consensus on stable development of the Kaesong complex,” he said. “The officials will study legal structures, incentives designed to draw investments and customs clearance. We expect Kaesong to grow into a globally competitive complex.”

While it appears intent on improving inter-Korean ties at Kaesong, Seoul is in no hurry to resume suspended tourism to the North’s Mount Kumgang.

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
NK Brief No.09-11-23-1
11/23/2009

Companies in the inter-Korean joint Kaesong Industrial Complex (KIC) have recorded a growth since North Korea abolished restrictions on traffic to and from the complex, as well as on the number and length of visits by South Korean workers.

According to the South Korean Ministry of Unification, companies in the KIC recorded September exports worth 3.42 million USD, 21.5 percent higher than the 2.82 million USD-worth of goods exported in September 2008. From May 2008 to July of this year, KIC exports were lower than the previous year every single month, but finally showed a 29% jump in August, the first time in 15 months. The increase in the value of the complex’s exports was helped by exports of machinery and household electrical appliances now being produced there.

There are currently 116 companies operating in the KIC, but according to the Ministry of Unification, at the end of September there were only 40,848 North Korean laborers working there, and the problems revolving around hiring more workers are clouding future prospects for the complex. As there are only around 40,000 North Korean workers living in Kaesong City and the surrounding area, it appears that the KIC cannot currently accommodate any new businesses. This poses a dilemma for the 18 construction projects currently underway, and puts on hold another 105 projects that have been allotted land within the KIC, but have not yet begun construction of any factories.

Furthermore, despite the fact that managers in the KIC are trying to maintain a sense of stability in order to attract further orders, if the North decides to close the door on friendly policies, the beginning of next year could see a reversal of the growth. The KIC is, at best, enjoying an ‘uneasy peace.’

KIC officials say that the primary issue at the moment appears to be whether roads to and from the complex will be constructed and whether the inter-Korean agreement reached during the Roh Moo-hyn administration to provide dormitories for 15,000 workers will be implemented. According to a survey of businesses, companies already in operation and/or under construction want to hire an additional 26,000 workers. However, with the current government closely linking the North Korean nuclear issue with inter-Korean relations, the road and dormitory construction, which would cost tens of millions of dollars, would have to be based on progress toward denuclearization, the likelihood of which, at this point, is cloudy.

The incumbent government also seems to put more weight on maintaining the current, relatively stable state of things in the complex than on further developing the group project. One problem they are working to solve is that officials managing the KIC are now prepared to rent out space in one ‘apartment-style factory’ in which many different companies operate production facilities under one roof, but are having difficulties finding willing clients, while current tenants complain about close quarters and a lack of space.

Korea Business Consultants has published their October 2009 newsletter.  You can read it here.

Here is the newsletter table of contents:

COVER
- China eyes DPRK’s mineral wealth
- SinoMining acquires 51% of DPRK’s Hyesan Copper Mine
- Transformation and Modernization of North Korea
- DPRK sees peace pact with US as key to disarmament
- US “willing to engage DPRK directly”
- “DPRK Energy Sector Assistance to - Accompany Progress in… Discussions”
- Billy Graham’s son visits DPRK to deliver aid
- Lang visits Seoul

ECONOMY
- DPRK vows to expand trade
- China poised to give substantial aid
- DPRK films looking for joint producers

INTER KOREAN
- Buddhists from south, north call for reopening of Mount Kumgang tour
- Kaesong factory recognized for quality
- Frayed relations hindering development of mineral resources
- ROK aid to north falls
- Lawmakers call for use of rice surplus as DPRK aid
- Farmers demand rice price stabilization

POLITICAL
- Kenya establishes diplomatic relations with DPRK

CULTURE & SPORTS
- Eriksson to coach DPRK?
- DPRK’s Hong battles for gold at World Gymnastic Championships
- DPRK begins preparations for World Cup

KOREA COMPASS
- Mangyongdae
- Korean Proverb

1. Dutch import DPRK clothing and machinery (via Yonhap):

Dutch companies gave purchase orders to clothing and machinery firms in North Korea following their visit there organized by the Chamber of Commerce of the Netherlands in September, said the Japan-based Choson Sinbo in a dispatch from Pyongyang.

“Exchange and cooperation projects that were agreed to in meetings between the Dutch business delegation and the DPRK Commercial Office are entering the stage of implementation,” the report said. DPRK is short for the North’s official name, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.

“Production by the (North) Korean clothing and machinery trade firms is underway according to the agreements,” it added.

Dutch businesses along with firms from 14 other countries participated in the Pyongyang Autumn International Fair held Sept. 21 to 24. North Korea holds a trade fair twice a year to draw foreign investment and boost technology exchanges.

The Choson Sinbo said the Dutch firms then showed interest in the information technology area, machinery parts and clothing goods and held talks with pertinent North Korean companies, such as the Joson Computer Center and Unha Clothing Company.

After returning home, the Dutch produced a report on North Korea’s international economic relations for distribution at home and in other Western European countries, the newspaper said.

2. Seoul sets DPRK official assistance budget.  According to Yonhap:

According to its 2010 budget plan submitted to the National Assembly unification, foreign affairs and trade committee, the Unification Ministry allocated 1.18 trillion won (US$1.02 billion), about the same as the earmarked budget for this year, for inter-Korean relations and exchanges.

“The ministry has reflected the government’s policy to continue to proceed with humanitarian projects despite the strained phase in inter-Korean relations,” the ministry proposal said.

Broken down to specifics, 616 billion won has been set aside for the possible resumption of rice and fertilizer aid that was suspended after President Lee Myung-bak took office last year. The sum is slightly less than the 718 billion won for this year but remains mostly untouched. The ministry cited the fall of grain prices as the reason for adjustment.

The amount will be worth 400,000 tons of rice and 300,000 tons of fertilizer that had been annually provided to the North over the past decade. But Seoul officials have said they there is no immediate plan yet to resume the rice and fertilizer aid.

The ministry also set aside 18 billion won and 25 billion won to assist North Korea through non-governmental organizations or international agencies like the World Food Program.

For economic projects, including a joint industrial park in the North’s border town of Kaesong, the proposed budget earmarks 144.8 billion won, up 17 percent from the previous year.

“Massive economic cooperation projects were considered in preparation for the possibility of progress in the North Korean nuclear issue,” the ministry said.

It should be pointed out that Seoul has hardly touched its current inter-Korean assistance budget (here and here).  These sorts of policy moves are intended to offer Pyongyang a highly visible carrot.

3. Pyongyang’s 2009 Kaesong antics have unfortunately scared away more foreign direct investment from the Kaesong Zone, despite significant South Korean subsidies.  According to Yonhap:

Romanson Co., a South Korean watchmaker, said Thursday it has no intention to further invest in an inter-Korean industrial complex because of the political risks.

Romanson operates a plant in the industrial park in the North Korean border town of Kaesong, which turns out 40,000 watches per month. In 2005, the company invested 6.1 billion won (US$5.3 million) to build the factory.

4. And the first shipment of NOKO Jeans have arrived in Europe!  Learn more at their Facebook Page.  Here is a photo of the shipment on Flickr.

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
NK Brief No. 09-10-26-1
10/26/2009

Companies in the Kaesong Industrial Complex (KIC) are pushing for permission to transport goods manufactured within the complex along the railway running from Kaesong to Sinuiju and the highways connecting Kaesong, Pyongyang, Sinuiju and the Chinese city of Dandong.

Currently, the majority of goods exported from the KIC flow through the South Korean port of Incheon. They are then distributed elsewhere after arriving at the Chinese port of Dalian. This route is expensive and slow. Shipping by sea costs 1,900 USD per container and takes as many as 10 days, while if the railway infrastructure was built up between Kaesong and Sinuiju, both the cost and the time could be significantly reduced.

Seventeen percent of Kaesong goods are exported not only to China, but to Europe, the Middle East and Russia. In the mid- to long-term, Kaesong needs to be connected with Rajin-Sunbong, so that goods can be distributed throughout Russia and Europe via the Trans-Siberian Railway. In order to make this happen, companies within the KIC are seeking to attract foreign joint-ventures and investments while at the same time lobbying North Korean authorities in an effort to convince them of the need for such land transportation infrastructure.

These companies are also pushing for improvements in the highway spanning the 160 km between the KIC and Pyongyang and the injection of KIC goods into the Pyongyang markets, where they could compete with Chinese imports. One part of this effort is promoting the attachment of ‘Made In DPRK’ labels to goods produced in these factories.

It appears that North Korean authorities have been receptive to these ideas, but questions still remain on the logistics of the project. One source has said that the North Korean Central Special Direct General Bureau has shown interest recently in the idea of including KIC goods in the annual Pyongyang International Trade Fair.

On the one hand, the number of North Korean workers in the KIC has now topped 40,000; but on the other hand, given the number and size of the factories in the complex, the factories are about 26,000 workers short of full capacity. The effort to find suitable workers means that now people from Sariwon, Pyongyang and Hamheung have been brought in. Companies in the KIC are adamant that construction of dormitories in the complex needs to be sped up. At the same time, North Korean authorities are demanding that workers be paid according to their level of education, job description, and experience.

For the first time in 13 months, trade between the two Koreas began to rise again. In September 2009, inter-Korean trade amounted to 173.17 million USD, a 2.6 percent rise over the 166.86 million USD recorded in 2008. The economy has shown signs of recovery since last July, and as inter-Korean relations have inched toward improvement, trade has also risen.

The article was not as informative as I hoped.  But here are a few lines that I thought were interesting:

Q: When you were talking with Kim Jong Il, was it your impression that he wants more investment from South Korea? That he wants to do more business with your country?

A: He showed a lot of enthusiasm. He said he hopes the North and South Korean government can talk things through so to have a lot of South Korean companies enter the North, and he also said that since they have the natural resources and the South has the skills to sell, if both sides work together he expects the North and South to prosper.

Comment: There is a vast literature on the relationship between natural resources, economic growth, and conflict.  Natural resources tend to be the kiss of death for widespread economic development and “democracy.” Unfortunately, given the way the North Korean system is managed, I would expect most of the revenues from increased natural resources exports to go to the DPRK leadership with little tangible benefit to the North Korean people.

The Kaesong industrial complex, the joint facility run by North and South, what is the future of that complex?

Currently we are only operating the first block, but I am sure that once things get settled down by both governments, we have many plans for the second block as well. A hotel needs to be built. We need to have hospitals, post offices, so I am expecting gradually that we will expand business there.

I am more optimistic about the Kaesong Zone than I am about the DPRK’s desire for increasing natural resource exports because the workers at Kaesong actually process resources to build the textiles.  As a result, their productivity has increased over time and the workers have been able to capture some of that extra value themselves in the form of higher incomes (although at a ridiculously steep “tax rate” since the DPRK government keeps the vast majority of their salaries).  If Kaesong was closed down the workers would certainly be worse off, and so would all of those who depend on them.  Despite the DPRK’s efforts to increase tensions this year, business never closed down at Kaesong.  It could be that the DPRK leadership now considers Kaesong too big to fail.

Read the full interview below:
Doing business in North Korea
CNN
10/19/2009

According to Yonhap:

Inter-Korean trade grew for the first time in 13 months in September amid improving global economic conditions and eased cross-border tensions, customs data showed Monday.

According to data compiled by the Korea Customs Service, trade between South and North Korea amounted to US$173.17 million last month, up 2.6 percent from a year earlier when the global financial turbulence first began following the collapse of Lehman Brothers.

Also according to Yonhap however, the DPRK and RoK failed to agree on an aid-for-family reunions deal:

The two Koreas on Friday ended their day-long negotiations over further cross-border family reunions and other humanitarian issues without reaching any concrete agreement, with Pyongyang asking for resumption of aid by Seoul, officials said.

In the meeting arranged by Red Cross offices from both sides, South Korea proposed holding new rounds of reunions for families separated by the 1950-53 Korean War next month in both Seoul and Pyongyang, and again around February at the North’s Mount Kumgang resort.

But aid is not off the table.  According to the Korea Times today:

The government has been reviewing whether to subsidize non-government organizations through the inter-Korean cooperation fund in order to provide aid to North Korea, according to the Ministry of Unification, Monday.

“The government is mainly checking plans to offer health and medical care,” ministry spokesman Chun Hae-sung told reporters. “But details have yet to be determined.”

Chun reiterated that Seoul is sticking to its existing stance that it will provide North Korea with humanitarian assistance regardless of the political climate.

According to government sources, the subsidy would total less than 1 billion won (about $853,000).

The plan, however, is not related to North Korea’s request for humanitarian aid made during the inter-Korean Red Cross talks last Friday, the sources said.

Seoul has also been reviewing whether to provide the reclusive state with government-level support such as food and fertilizer aid, according to ministry officials.

The inter-Korean cooperation fund has served as a lifeline for cross-border business projects, including the Gaeseong Industrial Complex and the Mt. Geumgang tourism program, which has been suspended.

It is also a main source of South Korea’s economic aid to the impoverished North.

The cash pot was introduced in 1990 in order to boost personal exchanges, economic cooperation and trust-building between the two Koreas.

In August, the ministry approved a plan to subsidize 10 civic groups with approximately 3.6 billion won ($3 million) from the fund for relief activities involving North Korean babies, pregnant women and other social minorities.

The government originally planned to distribute the money starting from April but North Korea’s provocations postponed the plan.

As reported before, the South Korean government has spent just 5% of the funds it budgeted for inter-Korean projects this year.

At the same time North Korea is soliciting aid from South Korean and Western religious origanizations.  See here, here, and here in just the last few days.

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
NK Brief No. 09-30-1
9/30/2009

North Korean laborers in the Kaesong Industrial Complex are gaining attention as they are awarded with the government’s certificate of high quality, a certification difficult for even South Korean companies to earn. It is very rare for the North Koreans to earn in only about one year what it takes South Korean small and mid-sized businesses 2~3 years to get.

On September 25, the Korea Chamber of Commerce and Industry presented the food container-producing Sungrim factory, located in the KIC, with the Chamber’s ‘Single PPM Quality Certification’. This certification is awarded to the company that, during the last six months, have found less than 10 out of 1,000,000 products (0.001%, 10PPM) to be defective. To date, only 1,664 factories throughout Korea have earned the certificate, and this is the first time it has been awarded to a factory in the Kaesong Industrial Complex.

The Sungrim factory launched a ‘Single PPM’ project to boost the quality of its output in July of last year, and received the Korea Chamber of Commerce and Industry’s award just 14 months later. The KIC Sungrim factory was opened in April 2008, and manufactures food container lids for the CJ Corporation. It employs 88 North Korean workers and 3 South Korean supervisors.

When the factory first opened, the skill level of the workers was considerably lower than counterparts elsewhere, and this was reflected in the dissatisfaction of customers and large number of defective products. It appeared that workers were indoctrinated with the North Korean system of equality, in which production numbers were less important than providing meals, exercise facilities, and other benefits. However, as the workers became more loyal to the company, their efficiency improved as well, and employees even began repairing their own equipment in the event of a failure. The CJ management recognized this, and allowed the North Korean laborers to improve at their own pace, sparing no expense to support their efforts.

The result was that the factory which had produced as many as 650 defective goods per month at the beginning was able to reduce the number of maligned goods to 15 within a year, and eventually down to 1.8 PPM. This placed the factory more than 17 times higher than the 31.3 PPM average for the 111 companies receiving one of Korcham’s three certificates (Single PPM, 100 PPM, and 1000 PPM).