North Korean Economy Watch

According to Yonhap:

The joint South-North Korean industrial complex in the North’s border city of Kaesong saw its production expand 14.4 percent in 2011 from a year earlier, Seoul’s unification ministry said Monday.

The total production at the Kaesong Industrial Complex reached US$369.9 million during the January-November period last year, up from $323.3 million worth of production for all of 2010, according to the Ministry of Unification.

The output during the last month of 2011 has not been tallied yet, the ministry said, adding the on-year growth rate may be far greater.

Production for the first 11 months of 2011 marks a 25.7-percent growth from the same period in the previous year, the ministry also noted.

Monthly production hit $31.1 million in January last year and hovered near the $30-million mark every month last year, except in February, according to the ministry.

The ministry attributed last year’s output growth to an increasing number of workers at Kaesong.

North Korean laborers working at the complex reached a peak of 48,708 as of November last year, the ministry said. The comparable figure at the end of 2010 was 46,284, it said.

Yonhap also reports the following:

The provision of new laborers is seen as a signal of the new North Korean leadership attempting to maintain the joint industrial complex, the symbol of inter-Korean economic cooperation, despite the North’s repeated denunciations of the Lee Myung-bak administration for allowing only a former South Korean first lady and a businesswoman to visit Pyongyang to mourn Kim’s death.

“North Korea will provide about 400 more laborers to the Kaesong Industrial Complex on the 26th (of January) immediately after the Lunar Yew Year’s holiday,” a source at the Kaesong complex said.

A Unification Ministry official also said that he “heard that North Korea will soon increase the laborers at the Kaesong Industrial Park.”

The North had planned to increase the number of North Korean laborers late last month but suspended the plan due to the sudden death of Kim on Dec. 19.

Hundreds of South Korean factories in the industrial park employ 48,708 North Koreans as of the end of November last year, up 2,400 from a year earlier.

Read the full stories here:
Production at joint industrial Kaesong park expands 14.4 pct in 2011
Yonhap
2012-1-23

N. Korea to provide 400 new laborers to S. Korean firms in Kaesong: sources
Yonhap
2012-1-24

According to Yonahp:

Top executives of more than 120 South Korean companies operating in the Kaesong Industrial Complex plan to meet in the North’s border city this week, in the first such meeting to discuss pending inter-Korean business issues, an organizer said Tuesday.

The CEO conference is scheduled to bring together the heads or local representatives of 123 South Korean firms and other related officials on Wednesday, said Bae Won-joo, one of the organizers of the meeting.

A Unification Ministry official said the meeting was designed to discuss issues related to the operation of the industrial complex. He did not give further details and asked not to identified, citing office policy.

Previous posts on the Kaesong Industrial Zone can be found here.

Read the full story here:
S. Korean businessmen to meet in N. Korea’s industrial park
Yonhap
2011-12-6

According to the Daily NK:

According to records released today by the Ministry of Unification, there were a total of 48,242 workers in the Kaesong Industrial Complex at the end of September, up from 6013 when the project was launched in 2005.

Following the recent resumption of construction at the complex, the number of workers is now expected to grow further.

Revealing the data, an official with the Ministry of Unification commented, “Labor has been provided sufficient for Kaesong Complex enterprises to overcome labor shortages. If conditions get better allowing workers from further away to get employed, it looks like numbers will increase even more.”

The more than 48,000 North Korean workers in the Kaesong Complex bring in $50 million annually for the North Korean government.

As word of the good working environment that the Kaesong Industrial Complex offers spreads, the area is reportedly attracting internal migrants.

“The good reputation of Kaesong among workers has spread to Shinuiji, so they are moving to the area. But accommodation problems have to be solved before any can be hired,” the official explained.

The educational backgrounds of the workers include 81.8% with a high school diploma, 9.5% college graduates and 8.7% from professional schools.

Their base pay plus bonuses and incentives add up to roughly $100 dollars per person, though much of this is lost in payments to the North Korean state.

Here and here are recent post on road construction in Kaesong.

Here are previous posts on the Kaesong Industrial Zone.

Read the full story here:
Kaesong Still Growing
Daily NK
Kim Yong Hun
2011-12-02

According to Yonhap:

South Korea will next week start repairing a road used by North Korean commuters to reach an inter-Korean industrial complex in the North, an official said Thursday amid signs of a thaw in bilateral relations.

The 4.5-kilometer road linking North Korea’s border city of Kaesong to the nearby industrial park is used by more than 47,000 North Korean workers who are employed by some 120 South Korean firms operating in the zone. South Korean officials earlier said the road was damaged in summer’s torrential rains, prompting the South to conduct an on-site survey.

“After signing an agreement (with the North), we expect to start repair work next week,” said an official at the Unification Ministry, which handles inter-Korean relations in the South.

“It will likely take about three months to complete the work, unless the weather becomes too cold, and cost us around 1.8 billion won (US$1.59 million),” the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

The repairs will involve restoring damaged paved sections and filling in holes on unpaved sections. Repairing the road is expected to save time for North Korean commuters and reduce traffic accidents.

The Daily NK offers some additonal information:

A government official explained today that the decision was made pursuant to agreement between the Kaesong Industrial Complex Management Committee, LH Construction and the North Korean authorities.

“The agreement has not yet been signed, but we are hoping to start the construction at the beginning of next week,” the official explained.

“Our side has taken on responsibility for planning the road repairs and supervising the construction,” he went on. “The weather could change things, but the construction should require three months and is expected to cost 1.8 billion South Korean won.”

Aside from the aforementioned construction, there are also plans to reconstruct two turning points for buses serving the complex. The human resources for the construction will be provided by North Korea.

There are plans to extend bus service to cover the areas of Pongchon (봉천), Kumchon (금천), and Phyongsan (평산). However, the roads to these areas are unpaved and extension of transportation services to these areas will require negotiations with the North Korean authorities.

Read the full story here:
Seoul to start repairing road leading to Kaesong complex next week
Yonhap
2011-11-3

According to the Daily NK:

North Korea is pushing every angle to try and obtain more foreign currency to bolster its coughers and fund its 2012 festivities.

According to North Korean sources, apart from the standard blanket expropriation of a large proportion of the $200-1500 per month incomes of laborers based abroad, in recent times the authorities have also started to move in on the reserves of ordinary citizens inside North Korea’s borders.

Various enterprises and organizations are said to be in fierce competition to get hold of whatever foreign currency and gold is held by the people. Trade banks have also apparently responded to the situation by offering to exchange foreign currency at the black market rate of 2,800 won per U.S. dollar, instead of the laughable official exchange rate.

Elsewhere, mobile phone sales are helping the regime to dredge currency from the people. The North Korean Ministry of Communications is reportedly making impressive profits by monopolizing the importation of phones made by Chinese companies ZTE and Huawei, buying them for $80 per handset and reselling them for $300. Based on known prices, connection fees and a service take-up of 700,000 people so far, the authorities have presumably managed to earn $250m through this practice alone.

Overseas Koreans also say they are being pushed to add to the funding drive. Ethnic Koreans in the United States have claimed that North Korea has offered them the chance to reunite with long lost family members in the North for a cost of several thousand dollars per person, including brokerage and security fees, although this has been apparently going on for a number of years.

Over in Japan, meanwhile, it was also revealed by weekly publication AERA that North Korea has sent letters to elderly members of the Chongryon inviting them to return to North Korea with the promise of being able to live well on their pensions. It is suspected that the North hopes to be able to withhold news of their eventual passing so as to keep receiving the pensions in the medium term.

Finally, the workers and businesses at the Kaeseong Industrial Complex have also become a target of the fund raising drive. North Korean management in the Complex requested back in August that South Korean businesses stop offering ‘Choco-pies’ (a South Korean snack) to North Korean workers and give them cash instead.

However, the overall results are unlikely to be positive. The planned illusion of plenty may be briefly achieved next year, but the majority of experts agree that the North Korean regime is now distorting the economy more and more by focusing on events idolizing the Kim family at the expense of other issues that will inevitably come back to haunt the regime later.

Yonhap also reported on this story.

Read the full Daily NK piece here:
2012 Funding International Overdrive
Daily NK
2011-10-31

Pictured above (Google Earth): The towns mentioned in the article below from which the Kaesong Industrial Zone could draw more labor: Pongchon (봉천), Kumchon (금천), and Phyongsan (평산).

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
2011-10-20

According to South Korea’s Ministry of Unification (MOU), the “May 24 Sanctions” that went into effect after the sinking of the naval boat Cheonan was relaxed and began to permit the resumption of construction of businesses in the Kaesong Industrial Complex (KIC). In addition, plans to build fire stations and emergency medical facilities in the area are also currently underway.

After South Korean Grand National Party chairman Hong Jun-pyo visited KIC on September 30, 2011, the ROK government has reached the following decisions: 1) to allow the resumption of halted factory constructions; 2) to build a fire station and emergency medical facility; 3) to resume repair work for commuting roads for KIC employees; and 4) to extend the operations of commuter buses.

This means seven companies that received permits in the past to begin construction but stopped after the sanctions went into effect would be able to resume the halted construction projects.

According to the Ministry of Unification, the seven companies include three metal and machinery, three textile, and one electronic factories, taking up a total area of 103,527 square meters. The total site of production facilities of stage 1 businesses in the KIC reaches 2,171,900 square meters, in which the currently operating 123 companies take up 783,471 square meters. With the sanctions lifted, the total area of businesses in operation will reach 885,950 square meters.

In addition, five companies awaiting construction for expansion will have to wait a little longer. The authorities announced to discuss this issue at a later date, looking positively on their construction to resume shortly as well.

Also the MOU announced to push forward with the establishment of fire stations and emergency medical facilities, “to protect the properties and health of businesses and employees of the KIC. The plans to break ground for fire station will begin in mid-November and is expected to be completed by late next year.”

The layout for the KIC fire station was completed in December 2009 and 3.3 billion USD has been budgeted to fund the construction. The station will be constructed on a steel frame on a 3,305 square-meter lot with the total floor space to be around 2,182 square meters.

The Kaesong Management Committee has been operating a “fire/police station” from April 2005. But with occurrences of accidental fires since last winter, it has reinforced the number of fire engines and manpower – currently at a total of eight fire trucks and 36 fire fighters.

Medical facilities in the KIC will also be completed by the end of 2012 once the construction begins early next year. About 3 billion USD is set for this project.

Currently at the KIC, Green Doctor’s Cooperation Hospital is in charge of providing medical and health services in the KIC, with South Korea Green Doctor’s Kaesong Hospital treating the South Korean employees and North Korean Comprehensive Clinic treating the North Korean employees exclusively. The South Korea Green Doctor’s Kaesong Hospital is currently operated by volunteers at a clinic level. The hospital was in the process of improving the facilities to more than ten beds. However, this project was halted after the May 24 sanctions went in effect.

On another note, the MOU also announced that maintenance work for the road connecting Kaesong City to the KIC would begin. The road is normally used by North Korean employees of the KIC. It was also announced that the number and operation of commuter buses would increase to help with the commute. The buses operate in the 20 km radius; the plan is to increase that to 40 km. Since September 2010, the number of buses increased to 400.

There are plans to extend the service to cover the areas of Kumchon, Bongchon, and Pyongsang. However, the roads to these areas are unpaved and extension of transportation services to these areas will require negotiations with the North Korean authorities.

Although these measures will alleviate some of the problems faced by the businesses in the KIC, the MOU still stands firm on its position that North Korea must take responsibility and make formal apology for the Cheonan incident in order for a fundamental resolution of the situation to occur.

Pictured above (Google Earth): Kaesong Industrial Zone (Sept. 2009)

According to Reuters:

South Korea said on Tuesday it will allow 120 of its firms to restart building a joint industrial park with North Korea, a fresh sign of tensions between the rival countries easing.

Construction of five factories can resume, and work to build seven new ones can go ahead, South Korea’s Unification Ministry said, 17 months after stopping activity in protest at what the South said was an attack by the North on one of its ships.

The South Korean firms employ about 46,000 North Korean workers at the Kaesong industrial park to make clothes, utensils and watches, taking advantage of cheaper labour and property than is available in the South.

According to the Choson Ilbo:

[The Ministry of Unification] will also build a fire station and hospital at the complex, repair a highway linking the city of Kaesong with the industrial complex, and add 45 buses to shuttle North Korean workers to and from the facility.

Previous posts on the Kaesong Zone can be found here.

Read the full story here:
S.Korea allows work at factories in North to restart
Reuters
2011-10-11

According to Yonahp:

South Korean firms operating at an inter-Korean industrial complex have asked the government to grant a grace period for their debt repayments, saying the two Koreas’ strained political relations have adversely affected their business, officials at the complex said Wednesday.

The officials said an association of South Korean firms at the factory park collected signatures from some 40 firms operating there and submitted the request to the Ministry of Unification last week. The ministry is tasked with handling inter-Korean affairs.

“Although the total amount of production at the complex has increased this year, about 30 percent of our firms are experiencing significant difficulties,” said one of the officials, who wished to remain unidentified.

In the letter, the firms said their businesses are struggling due to the months-long political standoff triggered by North Korea’s deadly military attacks against the South last year. Seoul suspended nearly all ties with Pyongyang last year over the March sinking of the South Korean warship Cheonan and the artillery shelling of the front-line island Yeonpyeong, which killed a total of 50 South Koreans.

“With a growing number of firms facing the risk of bankruptcy, (we) need emergency measures from financial institutions, including an extension of grace periods and the deferral of debt repayments,” the firms said in the letter.

The association sent a similar request to Rep. Park Joo-sun of the main opposition Democratic Party last week, prompting lawmakers from a special parliamentary committee on inter-Korean relations to plan a trip to the joint industrial zone. The visit was canceled, however, after the Unification Ministry effectively denied their entry. All trips to North Korea are subject to prior approval from the ministry, as the Koreas remain in a technical state of war following a cease-fire at the end of the 1950-53 Korean War.

The industrial complex in the North Korean border city of Kaesong, an achievement of the first-ever inter-Korean summit in Pyongyang in 2000, combines South Korea’s capital and technology with the North’s cheap labor to produce clothes, utensils, watches and other goods.

Read previous stories on the Kaesong Industrial Zone here.

Read the full story here:
Kaesong firms request deferral of debt repayments
Yonahp
2011-8-31

The Choson Ilbo reports:

The World’s Knowledge biweekly published by World Knowledge Publishing House under the [Chinese] Foreign Ministry supervision dismissed the North Korean plan to build what it called “its own Hong Kong.” In its latest edition, Tang Longwen, an associate professor at the Dandong party school, said, “The North’s plan to develop the two islands by leasing them to Chinese enterprises costs too much.”

Chinese businesses “need to check if it is worth making huge investment in areas that neither have abundant resources nor are worth developing,” Tang wrote.

Tang also mentioned risks from the lack of proper governance in North Korea. Citing the joint Korean Kaesong Industrial Complex as an example, he said, “What is important is not the development of the two islands but whether the North genuinely intends to open its doors. Everybody worries that the North will just open and close the islands as it likes.”

He cited the North’s habitual disregard for international norms, apparently referring to its unilateral abrogation of its contract with Hyundai Asan in the Mt. Kumgang package tour project and repeated bans on passage to the Kaesong industrial park.

“The North is calling for simultaneous development of the Rajin-Sonbong area and Hwanggumpyong, but China is more interested in the Rajin-Sonbong area, which would give it access” to the East Sea, he said. As Chinese President Hu Jintao said during Kim’s visit to China in May, “the two countries should seek ‘win-win’ economic cooperation. It should not be sought through one-sided aid.”

On three visits to China between May last year to May this year, Kim asked China to support the development of Wihwa and Hwanggumpyong islands, but Beijing told him cooperation “should be sought based on market principles.”

Chinese officials attended a ground-breaking ceremony on Hwanggumpyong at the North’s request in June, but there has reportedly been no progress in construction since then.

A recent in the Financial Times article quotes another Chinese academic who expresses some skepticism about the success of the new ventures:

North Korea’s past experience of working with other countries has left it with a serious credibility problem and this will stop a lot of foreign investment from even considering these new zones,” says Zhang Liangui, a professor of international strategic research at China’s central Communist party school.

Mr Zhang graduated from the Kim Il-sung University in North Korea and is considered one of China’s top experts on the country. “Even though Chinese entrepreneurs are being encouraged and supported by China to invest there, they are still very cautious about considering the Hwanggumphyong Island Economic Zone, and investors from other countries will be even more circumspect,” he explains.

“It will be very difficult to build this zone up,” he adds, citing the unpredictability of the political situation in North Korea and UN sanctions which would prevent many investors from considering the venture.

In addition, analysts warn that similar moves in the past have led to nothing. The Rason zone that Chinese and North Korean officials broke ground on in June will incorporate an area that was designated as an investment zone in the early 1990s but never attracted any real interest.

Previous posts on Hwanggumphyong here.

Previous posts on Rason here.

Read the full story here:
Chinese Magazine Dismisses N.Korean Development Dreams
Choson Ilbo
2011-8-31

According to the Choson Ilbo:

According to the Unification Ministry, 123 firms were operating in the industrial park as of July, with combined production output amounting to US$34.87 million in May, up 25 percent from $27.79 million year-on-year.

The total volume of inter-Korean trade through the industrial park reached $825.88 million in the first half of this year, up 19.5 percent from last year and a whopping 135.8 percent from 2009.

South Korean staff dwindled from 1,461 in 2008, when inter-Korean trade was at its height, to 801 in May this year, but the number of North Korean workers rose from 36,650 to 47,172. And some 3,700 more North Korean workers were hired even since May last year when the South banned new investments there after the North sank the Navy corvette Cheonon in March.

At the moment, the regime is unlikely to shut down the industrial park, since nearly 50,000 North Koreans are working there. But experts stress that the government should take the seizure of the properties in the resort as a warning and be prepared for anything that the regime could do.

“There’s nothing we can be sure of in inter-Korean relations,” said Dong Yong-seung, a researcher at the Samsung Economic Research Institute. “Risk factors always exist because the government launched the Kaesong project without providing any safety net to protect its people and properties, as in the case of the Mt. Kumgang tour project.”

South Korean investments in the industrial park amount to W920 billion (US$1=W1,079) — W540 billion invested by the 123 firms, and W380 billion from the government and public corporations to lay the infrastructure, including electricity and communications facilities, and landscaping.

If the regime shuts down the industrial park, the South would suffer double the losses it incurred from the regime’s seizure of the properties in Mt. Kumgang, which are worth W484.1 billion.

Read the full story here:
Kaesong Firms Worry as N.Korea Seizes Mt. Kumgang Assets
Choson Ilbo
2011-8-24