North Korean Economy Watch

Yonhap
12/2/2006

North Korea completed its crop harvest, and results suggest the country will need at least 1 million tons of food aid from the outside, according to a report released Thursday by the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).

In “Crop Prospects and Food Situation,” the fourth such report put out by the FAO, North Korea was categorized as a nation with widespread lack of access to food.

“The 2006 cereal output is estimated lower than in the previous year, reflecting floods in July and October in parts of the country,” said the report.

“The total cereal import requirement in 2006/2007, including commercial imports and food aid, is expected to be at least 1 million tons.”

The 2006 harvest season was completed in October, the report said, but food rations for millions of people will remain reduced as a result of a suspension of food aid.

South Korea, on the other hand, was expected to have 3 million tons in cereal stock in 2007, slightly up from 2.8 million tons this year.

Korea Times
Andrei Lankov
10/11/2005

“How much do they earn there, in the North?” “What are North Korean salaries now?” These questions come naturally, even if people are aware that in a socialist economy the formal size of one’s salary is less significant an indicator of wealth than it is in capitalism.
Under socialism, access to goods is at least as important as the amount of money in somebody’s possession. Since retail prices in the socialist economies tend to be subsidized, this means that many goods are not readily available in shops, but are distributed by the state bureaucracy instead. Thus, people who are deemed more deserving get such goods… goods that are not available to the “less valuable” people.

A party bureaucrat and a skilled worker often might have roughly similar salaries in a socialist economy, but their actual consumption levels may be vastly different. Apart from bureaucrats, another group of people who have privileged access to commodities are people employed in the retail system. They always can divert some goods from the public distribution system and use them either for their own consumption, or for barter with those who control other valuable commodities. Thus, the position of a sale clerk is seen as very prestigious occupation in the North.

The 2002 reforms (never called “reforms” in the North Korean press) dramatically changed the structure of wages and prices in the country. For a while it was not clear what the current price and wages levels were, but recent research by the World Food Program seems to answer a few questions. Now we know what was regarded as “normal” wages in 2004.

According to the survey, most types of low-paid workers earn between 1,700 and 2,500 won per month, with an average estimated at 2,100. Low-level professional jobs such as clerks and teachers at nursery and primary schools earn between 1,400 and 2,000 won per month. The average old age pension is just 900 won; women, in particular housewives, sometimes get pensions as low as 300_400 won.

The official exchange rate is 1,700 won per Euro (they to play down the significance of the imperialist dollar, so exchange rates are usually quoted in euros). However, throughout 2004, the actual exchange rate fluctuated between 1,600 and 2,200. This means that the average pension was something like 50 cents a month, with a nursery teacher earning as little as one dollar a month. This is not as bad as it sounds, since prices are also relatively cheap. But this is still pretty bad…

Most of the people who draw salaries live in the cities (some 70% of the North Koreans are inhabitants of urban areas), and rely on the public distribution system for their survival. The system, which almost ceased to function a few years ago, obviously has made a moderate comeback. Since all data in the secretive North is classified, nothing is known for sure, but it seems that in early 2005, the Public Distribution System was “the main source of cereals for the 70 per cent of the population living in urban areas” (such was an estimate by the FAO, a U.N. food agency).

Still, the official rations are hardly generous. According to the WFP, in early 2005 rations were cut to 250 grams per person per day _ 40 per cent of the internationally recommended minimum. People have to purchase food on the markets, and this food is expensive, with rice costing some 500 won a kilo.

According to the FAO report, “the income of cooperative farmers from the annual obligatory crop sales to the Government varies greatly from one farm to another, resulting in monthly incomes per person ranging from 500 won to 4000 won.” But farmers can also substantially increase their income by selling the produce from their kitchen gardens, and by hillside farming which is done on the steep slopes of the mountains. The latter activity has become common in the North over the past decade. It is formally forbidden but done nonetheless, and it seems that a large part of the hillside produce goes outside the public distribution system.

Unemployment is quite high, but it is hidden. Formally, everybody has a job, but a persistent shortage of raw materials, spare parts, machinery, and power supplies means that few factories actually operate at full capacity. In many cases people come to their factories and offices and sit there idly, spending just a couple of hours a day doing some meaningful work. They still have to come, since otherwise they could lose access to food rations, and this would make their situation impossible, probably even threatening their physical survival.

According to interviews with officials, and other information garnered, the WFP estimated that some 30 percent of the North Korean workers are either permanently or temporarily underemployed or unemployed.

As usual, women are more likely to become unemployed. But perhaps they do not mind. Why? Well, is it possible for a family to survive, even on two salaries, if the official income can merely buy eight kilos of rice to augment the distributed 200 grams? Of course, the answer is “no”, and even in the most difficult circumstances people need more than just rice. Hence, the survival strategy of most families depends heavily on the efforts of their women. While formally seen as “unemployed housewives”, women produce most of the income, ensuring the family’s survival. Indeed, the new-born North Korean capitalism has a female face. But that is another story…

UNFAO
4/21/2005

North Korea (DPRK) is applying knowledge gained from a forestry project on sustainable development of upland water catchments and use of marginal agricultural land to help reduce soil erosion, protect natural resources and increase agricultural output in the country, FAO said today.

“In a country that largely depends on agriculture for self-sufficiency and has seen its agricultural production devastated by floods and droughts in the recent past, an integrated and participatory approach to watershed management is essential,” said Thomas Hofer, an FAO forestry expert.

“Applying watershed management throughout the country, planting trees in the uplands and developing integrated approaches to the use of natural resources will help diminish soil degradation and the dangers of downstream sedimentation,” Hofer said.

Trees help retain water in the soil, preventing water from flowing downstream all at once during heavy rains and keep moisture in the soil during low rainfall. Their roots also cling to the soil, making it more difficult for soil to erode.

Forests, soil erosion and agricultural output

Soil erosion and sedimentation from floods and droughts between 1994 and 2000 have caused massive destruction and reduced the country’s agricultural output in the last decade. In 1995 and 1996 alone, 16 percent of its arable land was damaged by floods The floods also destroyed irrigation and transportation infrastructure as well as 30 out of 90 tree nurseries.

To compensate for the drop in agricultural output, forests have been extensively exploited and converted into agricultural land on steep slopes of marginal lands, which are vulnerable to soil erosion. Forests were also felled for fuelwood and to earn foreign currency from the sale of forest products.

As a consequence, one quarter of North Korea’s non-agricultural land on hills and mountains is bare today.

Tree nurseries and training

To put an end to this vicious cycle and offset the progressively diminishing forest quality and agricultural output, in 2001 FAO launched at the request of the government a watershed management project to reverse degradation of upland resources by addressing the decline of natural forest cover.

FAO has also helped the government to analyze the situation of upland resources, to collect data on forest land degradation and to identify measures to conserve and develop forest and other natural resources. It has rehabilitated damaged nurseries and established new ones for reforestation. Two small-scale pilot and demonstration sites for long-term management of watersheds have been established and country people have been trained to apply their newly-gained knowledge from the sites for replication elsewhere.

Based on the experience of the project, North Korea is now developing a watershed management plan for the Taedong River, which flows through the capital, Pyongyang.

“By applying elsewhere what we have learned from the pilot sites, we hope to see sustainable use of natural resources and greater agricultural output in the country,” Hofer said.

UNFAO
3/30/2005

FAO has sent a veterinary expert to Pyongyang/North Korea to obtain further information on the extent of the current avian influenza outbreak in the country and to offer assistance to control the bird flu virus.

Two additional FAO avian influenza experts from China and Australia will arrive in Pyongjang within the next days.

The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea has informed FAO about bird flu outbreaks on two or three farms. In response, FAO has sent diagnostic kits for avian influenza to support national control efforts.

Poultry production is one of the few growing sectors in the country. The number of poultry is estimated at some 25.5 million in 2004, about two times higher than in 1997.

In the wake of serious food shortages, the supply of animal protein has been very limited in North Korea. The recovering poultry sector could contribute to improve the nutrition of the country’s population of around 22.5 million people by adding a valuable source of animal protein to their diets.

North Korea is one of the poorest countries in the world, with around 8 million chronically undernourished in 2000-2002.

The spread of the disease into North Korea underlines the need for close regional cooperation, FAO said. North Korea is already benefiting from a regional FAO project on avian influenza, shared with China, Mongolia and the Republic of Korea. The project assists in improving and upgrading veterinary laboratories as well as creating a network for the sharing of epidemiological information, and provision of equipment to control and prevent avian flu.

A national workshop on bird flu will be held soon in North Korea to improve awareness of the disease, and provide information on control methods, laboratory diagnosis and good farming practices. The workshop will be jointly organised by the government and FAO.

It is essential to fight the bird flu virus in poultry, free-range chickens and ducks, in order to reduce the risk of a human flu pandemic, the UN agency said.

BBC
3/27/2005

North Korea says it has had a first outbreak of the deadly bird flu virus.

The state Korean Central News Agency said no people had been infected but hundreds of thousands of chickens had been culled and the carcasses burned.

The agency only said that the outbreak was “recent” and occurred at “two or three” chicken farms. It did not specify the virus type.

The H5N1 virus has killed almost 50 people since its resurgence in South East Asia in December 2003.

Tight controls

KCNA said Hadang farm in Pyongyang, among the city’s largest, was one of the sites of the outbreak.

North Korea had previously said it was free of the virus that has struck many countries in south and east Asia.

South Korean news agency Yonhap earlier this month reported an outbreak at Hadang, prompting the World Health Organization (WHO) to ask the reclusive North for information.

The North has relied on food aid for more than a decade but imposes tight controls on foreign visitors and aid workers.

Experts fear the H5N1 virus could eventually combine with human flu and threaten a deadly pandemic.

There are suspected cases of the virus being passed between humans.

Seoul offers N Korea bird flu aid
BBC
3/28/2005

South Korea has said it is ready to help the North combat bird flu, after the isolated state publicly admitted on Sunday that it was fighting the virus.

Pyongyang has not asked Seoul for assistance, but a South Korean official said the official announcement appeared to indicate the North would accept aid.

The North says no people have been infected but hundreds of thousands of chickens have been culled.

Analysts warn that the virus could wipe out its fledgling chicken industry.

“North Korea, plagued by food shortages, has struggled to modernise and build facilities for the breeding and processing of chicken, a main source of animal protein,” Kwon Tae-jin, an expert on North Korean agriculture based in Seoul, told the South Korean Munhwa Ilbo newspaper.

The North has not specified the type of bird flu virus it is battling. The H5N1 virus has killed almost 50 people since its resurgence in South East Asia in December 2003.

The state Korean Central News Agency only said that the outbreak was “recent” and occurred at “two or three” chicken farms.

The World Health Organization (WHO), which has an office in Pyongyang, said it had been contacted by the North, and would co-ordinate counter-measures.

South Korea was to hold several meetings on Monday to decide on a strategy to help the North.

It has already put in place measures to prevent the spread of bird flu into the South, as rumours first surfaced of an outbreak in the North earlier this month.

South Korea has itself suffered several outbreaks of bird flu, but no human infections.

Experts fear the H5N1 virus could eventually combine with human flu and threaten a deadly pandemic.

There are suspected cases of the virus being passed between humans. So far, Vietnam has been the country hardest hit by this year’s outbreak of bird flu.

UN bird flu expert visits N Korea
BBC
3/30/2005

A senior United Nations bird flu expert has gone to North Korea to try to prevent the spread of the virus.

North Korea confirmed on Saturday that bird flu had been detected in several farms near the capital, Pyongyang.

State media said hundreds of thousands of chickens had been destroyed to prevent the virus from spreading, and no humans had been affected.

The UN has also sent diagnostic kits to help the North Koreans determine if the birds died from the deadly H5N1 strain.

This strain of bird flu has killed almost 50 people since its resurgence in South East Asia in December 2003.

Hans Wagner, a senior official from the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization, flew to Pyongyang on Tuesday, and will be joined by two other experts from China and Australia in the coming days.

Survivor’s story

“They will look at the strategies being set up by the government and also bring some supplies,” FAO spokesman Diderik de Vleeschauwer told Reuters news agency.

South Korea’s Yonhap news agency reported on Tuesday that the North Korean authorities were struggling to control the outbreak, and the disease was spreading quickly.

Analysts warn that the virus could wipe out the poverty-stricken country’s chicken industry.

Before the bird flu outbreak, poultry production was one of the few growing sectors in North Korea. The number of poultry was estimated at 25.5m in 2004, about two times higher than in 1997.

N Korean bird flu ‘different’
BBC
4/5/2005

A strain of bird flu infecting poultry in North Korea is different from that which killed scores of people in other parts of Asia, a UN expert has said.

Hans Wagner, an official for the Food and Agriculture Organization, said the birds were infected with the H7 strain.

The strain that has decimated poultry stocks and caused recent human deaths in Cambodia, Thailand and Vietnam is the more virulent H5N1 strain.

North Korea has culled 219,000 birds to tackle the outbreak, Mr Wagner said.

“We have a new situation, because H7 has so far not occurred in Asia,” he told reporters.

“We don’t know where the virus came from,” he said, adding that UN experts would now try to trace the source of the infection, to prevent future outbreaks.

H7 can cause illness in humans, but outbreaks of the strain have not been as severe as those caused by H5N1.

H5N1 has killed almost 50 people since its resurgence in South East Asia in December 2003.

When North Korea first announced that three of its farms had been infected with bird flu last month, analysts warned that the virus could wipe out the poverty-stricken country’s chicken industry.

Poultry production is one of the few growing sectors in North Korea, which has relied on foreign aid to feed its people since the mid-1990s.

UNFAO
11/23/2004

Despite its best harvest in ten years, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) will post another substantial food deficit in 2005 and require external aid to support more than a quarter of its 23.7 million people, two United Nations agencies said today.

A report by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the World Food Programme (WFP) projected domestic cereals availability in the 2004/05 marketing year (November-October) at 4.24 million tonnes, including milled rice and potatoes - a 2.4 per cent increase on 2003/04.

However, it warns that insufficient production, a deficient diet, lower incomes and rising prices mean that 6.4 million vulnerable North Koreans - most of them children, women and the elderly - will need food assistance totaling 500,000 tonnes next year.

Good weather improves 2003 harvest

The 2004 rice paddy harvest was estimated at 2.37 million tonnes, up from 2.24 million tonnes in 2003, thanks primarily to favourable weather, a low incidence of crop pests and diseases, and improved irrigation in the country’s cereal belt. Maize output was unchanged at 1.73 million tonnes.

Forecasting total cereal needs for 2004/05 at 5.13 million tonnes, the UN agencies projected an import requirement of almost 900,000 tonnes. Given anticipated concessional and commercial imports of 400,000 tonnes, the residual gap will be about 500,000 tonnes.

Most of the 16 million people receiving subsidized cereals from the government-run Public Distribution System (PDS) averaging 300 grams per person per day - half a survival ration - cannot make ends meet. They turn to more expensive private markets yet “they are still not able to cover their basic energy requirements,” FAO and WFP said.

Despite good harvest, external food aid needed

The report, which followed a joint assessment mission by the Rome-based food agencies in September and October, says, “the continuing national shortage is still a problem” so “external food aid is in part seen within the context of overall domestic availability.”

It also noted that, increasingly, “the most critical problem for poor households is their lack of access to basic and nutritious food because of declining purchasing power.” As a result, assistance to the food-insecure population “should now be determined more by their household food gap than the national food gap in cereal production.”

“A balanced diet is out of reach for all but a few PDS-dependent households,” the report says. “The situation remains particularly precarious for children in kindergartens, nurseries, orphanages and primary schools, pregnant and nursing women, and elderly people.”

Price of food on new private markets up dramatically

While the prices of state-subsidized rice and maize rationed through the PDS have remained low and stable (at 44 and 24 won a kilo, respectively), prices in private markets have risen dramatically since the introduction of economic reforms in mid-2002.

Last month, rice cost as much as 600 won a kilo in such markets - almost 30 per cent of a typical monthly wage - compared to the 2003 average of 120 won; maize was 320 won a kilo, up from last year’s peak of 110 won. In September, one Euro bought 1600 won on the parallel market.

“The ability of low-income families to obtain food from the market is severely restricted due to their deteriorating purchasing power affected by under- or unemployment and sharp rises in food prices in the market,” according to the report.

An unintended consequence of reform has been the problem of higher food prices, which has been compounded by widespread and steep cuts in already meagre wage earnings as ailing enterprises in predominantly industrial DPRK shed labour.
Food rations meet just half a person’s minimum needs

The typical wage earner’s family now spends one-third of its monthly income on PDS rations that meet only half its minimum caloric needs. Another one-third is spent on non-food essentials - rent, heating and clothing. The remainder is insufficient to purchase enough food in private markets to meet the rest of the family’s very basic needs.

Much of the population, consuming very little protein, fat or micronutrients, suffers from critical dietary deficiencies. Fresh vegetables and fruit are either scarce or very expensive outside of the July-September period.

Traditional coping mechanisms such as animal husbandry, the cultivation of household gardens and hillside plots, the gathering of wild foods and transfers from relatives in the countryside, afford some relief to hard-pressed urban residents. Small-scale income-generating activities, notably petty trade and services, allowed under an easing of restrictions on private and semi-private enterprise are other sources of much needed income.

Better farm machinery and improved soil fertility needed

To deal with the chronic, structural food deficit, the FAO/WFP report recommended that the international community enter into a dialogue with the DPRK government toward the eventual mobilization of the economic, financial, and other resources needed to promote sustainable production and overall food security.

The report also proposed examination of investment projects on soil fertility and better farm machinery to allow further expansion of the country’s double-cropped area.

WFP has provided the DPRK with almost four million tonnes of food assistance, valued at $1.3 billion, since 1995.

UNFAO
10/26/2001

The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea is likely to record its best harvest for six years, but with domestic food production still well below consumption requirements, the country will again need substantial external assistance in 2002, two United Nations agencies said today.

Favourable weather during the main growing season, bigger budgetary allocations for agriculture, greater use of farm machinery and increased supplies of donated fertiliser should enable DPRK to produce some 3.54 million tonnes of cereals in 2001/02 (including rice in milled terms and potatoes in cereal equivalent (2001/02), up 38 percent on the previous year’s harvest and its highest output since 1995/96, according to a report by the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the World Food Programme (WFP).

Relatively good and well-distributed rainfall from mid-June to end-August benefited the main 2001 crops, overcoming the adverse effects of a prolonged spring drought, experts from the Rome-based agencies who undertook an assessment mission to the country from 25 September to 5 October concluded.

Rice production was forecast to reach 1.34 million tonnes (milled basis) in 2001, 22 percent more than last year, and the maize harvest projected to rise by 42 percent to 1.48 million tonnes.

The overall 3.54 million tonne estimate for 2001/02 includes yet-to-be-planted winter/spring wheat, barley and potato crops that in recent years accounted for 10-15 per cent of the country’s annual output. “The production estimate may need to be revised once the harvest outcome of these crops is known,” the FAO/WFP report noted.

But it pointed out that in addition to perennial droughts and floods, critical shortages of fertiliser, agro-chemicals and farm machinery persist, and there is little scope for expanding the cultivable area beyond its present level of some two million hectares.

Notwithstanding the significant recovery this year, “domestic production will fall well below the minimum food needs and the country will again have to depend on substantial external food assistance next year as its capacity to import commercially remains highly constrained,” the report said.

Estimating total cereal utilization needs in 2001/02 at 5.01 million tonnes, it therefore projected a deficit of 1.47 million tonnes (down from 2.2 million tonnes in 2000/01). “With commercial imports anticipated at 100,000 tonnes, 1.37 million tonnes will need to be covered by food aid and concessional food imports.”

On the basis of vulnerability assessments the report recommended that about 610,000 tonnes of food aid, including 525,000 tonnes of cereals and 85,000 tonnes of other food items be mobilised for population groups deemed to be most at risk: small children, pregnant and nursing women, and the elderly - especially in urban areas. It said bilateral aid and concessional food imports should meet the balance.

“The uncovered deficit is large and must be viewed very seriously. It needs to be emphasised that unless the international community responds positively and substantially, millions of people of DPR Korea, including large number of children, old people, pregnant women and lactating mothers will face hunger over prolonged periods with severe consequences for their health and welfare,” the joint report says.

“The crucial food aid safety net needs to be maintained until sustainable food security is achieved through the recovery of the economy and the rehabilitation of the agriculture sector, for which substantial international assistance will be needed,” the report concluded.

UNFAO
11/13/1997

Despite an improved harvest in North Korea, the country will enter 1999 with a large food deficit and will need to import 1.35 million tonnes of food grain, including 1.05 million tonnes as food assistance to meet the minimum nutritional requirements of the population, according to a joint report by the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the UN World Food Programme (WFP).

The report, based on the findings of a crop and food supply assessment mission that toured the country extensively last month, forecasts North Korea’s cereal production for 1998/99 at 3.5 million tonnes, some 30 percent higher than last year’s severely reduced crop.

But this harvest is only enough to cover minimum consumption needs for eight months. Apart from foreign exchange constraints that limit commercial imports, the general economic decline in the country and natural disasters have seriously compromised national food security.

“The food situation in DPR Korea (North Korea) remains precarious and the country urgently needs to address the underlying problems in the economy and agriculture if it is to avert serious problems in the future,” said the assessment team leader Mr. Abdur Rashid.

The report recommends that out of the 1.05 million tonnes of food aid needed, some 480,000 tonnes be targeted mostly to children, hospital patients and pregnant and nursing women. The remaining cereal shortfall of 574,000 tonnes will be needed to help the general population meet its minimum needs.

The report calls for immediate attention to be “focused on improving agricultural input supplies, mainly fertilisers, spare parts and fuel” to “enable the country to produce enough food to meet its minimum needs.”

“It is imperative that the international assistance to agriculture be increased substantially from its current low levels,” the report said, because “future food security in DPR Korea (North Korea) will crucially depend on solutions that address the major economic difficulties. In the absence of these, even without natural hazards, the food supply situation will remain highly precarious as the productivity in agriculture falls and the capacity of the country to finance commercial food imports dwindles and barter trade becomes a progressively less viable option.”

“Despite favourable weather this year, food production has not recovered sufficiently enough to avert serious food shortages,” said WFP’s Senior Program Coordinator for North Korea, Mr. Saeed Malik, adding, “The food crisis has been compounded by a complete run-down of the country’s economy.”

The natural disasters that struck North Korea from 1995 to 1997, including two years of flooding followed by serious drought and a typhoon, aggravated the underlying structural problems of the economy. The situation worsened further with the loss of favourable economic ties with the former USSR and other centrally planned economies in eastern Europe which had provided North Korea with large amounts of aid and trade benefits.

Today, the agriculture sector faces a lack of spare parts for broken machinery, shortages of fuel, irrigation difficulties and a shortage of pesticides. But, the shortage of fertiliser is the most serious problem for domestic food production, according to the report. North Korea’s three fertiliser factories have a total capacity of over 400,000 tonnes of nitrogen nutrient which could be enough for self-sufficiency, but the factories are obsolete, poorly maintained and face shortages of spate parts and raw materials, mainly fuel, causing fertiliser availability for 1998 to dwindle.

“The capacity of North Korea to provide adequate food for its population is constrained by the shortage of agricultural inputs such a fuel and fertiliser needed to produce food domestically and the reduced capacity of the economy to supplement domestic food production through commercial imports,” said the report, adding: “Food security in the country critically depends on general economic performance and the efforts to increase domestic food production.”

Other recommendations in the report include:

· Rehabilitation and development of the irrigation system and improved water management;

· Crop diversification to enhance soil productivity and reduce risk of crop losses in any one year due to adverse weather conditions;

· Research into effective crop rotation schemes including legumes to promote soil fertility and productivity; and,

· Research on seed improvement, and early and short-maturing and less chemical fertiliser dependent crop varieties.

· In the context of these recommendations, the UN Development Programme-led Round Table in support of Agricultural Recovery and Environmental Protection is an important initiative towards a strategic approach.

UNFAO
11/9/1997

The nutritional situation in North Korea remains fragile in spite of the country’s efforts to redress chronic food problems, United Nations food agencies said today in their latest comprehensive food assessment report.

“Given the scale of the problem and its root causes, future food supply prospects are almost entirely contingent on international food and rehabilitation assistance, economic growth and the ability of the country to integrate itself into the global economy,” the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World Food Programme (WFP) said in a report on their recent joint mission to North Korea.

“Failing these requisites, food availability and health and nutritional standards will continue to fall markedly,”

Living standards in North Korea have significantly declined in the last four years as the availability of food per person has shrunk, while serious health problems have increased because resources, drugs and essential supplies are unavailable. A vicious circle of poor nutrition compounding poor health and vice versa has become deeply entrenched, the report said.

“Widespread starvation has only been averted by concerted national efforts and the unprecedented volume of humanitarian food assistance provided by the international community,” according to the report.

The mission, which visited North Korea 9-19 October, said the food supply situation “will remain precarious over the next 12 months despite some improvement in rice production this year, due principally to increased fertiliser use, adequate irrigation supplies and the absence of serious pest and disease attacks.”

However, the report cautioned, the gains in rice production were more than offset by the reduction in maize output as the area cultivated fell sharply.

Based on population figures provided by North Korea’s government, grain demand for food and other uses for 1999/2000 is said to be 4.76 million tonnes. This leaves a deficit of about 1.29 million tonnes, of which the government is expected to import 300,000 tonnes commercially. A further 370,000 tonnes is covered by food aid imports in the pipeline, leaving 623,000 tonnes of grain that will need to come through assistance programmes. The food deficit has not significantly changed since the last year’s FAO/WFP crop and food supply assessment mission to North Korea.

According to the FAO/WFP report, there are signs that economic sanctions on North Korea by leading industrialized countries may be further relaxed, which could lead to recovery in the economy and rehabilitation in agriculture. “This inevitably will have a significant and positive impact on sustainable food security.”

UNFAO
10/23/1997

A new United Nations mission leaves today for the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (North Korea) to assess the outcome of this year’s harvest and evaluate food supply prospects and food aid needs for 1998 following the damaging drought and serious storm this summer.

The mission, mounted jointly by the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the World Food Programme (WFP), is the latest in a series sent to North Korea since the country’s agriculture was devastated by floods in 1995. This year serious drought hit the country in the crucial growing months from June to August, and Typhoon Winnie in late August breached sea defences and caused damaging floods.

The last joint FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission in August this year advocated urgent international assistance for North Korea in the form of food, agricultural rehabilitation and vital inputs of seed and fertilizers. “Without these interventions the human consequences are likely to be dire,” the mission said.

The report said the food outlook for 1998 was considerably worse than that of the previous two years of disasters. Domestic production of cereals, even under the most optimistic scenario, would cover less than half the country’s minimum food needs, while imports from commercial channels were likely to become increasingly strained due to growing and chronic economic difficulties and the lack of foreign exchange.

The new mission will estimate the size of this year’s harvest, assess prospects for food supply in 1998 and estimate the country’s food import requirements, including food aid, next year.