North Korean Economy Watch

Several days ago, Orascom Telecom issued a press release claiming “that it has been granted the first commercial license to provide mobile telephony services in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) using WCDMA (3G) technology,” and also claiming, ”The DPRK has a population of approximately 23 million of which 67% is between the age of 15 and 64 years, moreover, there is currently no mobile services in the country.”

(Although we won’t know if these demographics are correct until the next census).

However, Dr. Aidan foster Carter took issue with these statements this weekend in the Asia Times…

In 2008, not even North Korea is a cellphone virgin. The DPRK and mobile telephony have a tangled history, starting over a decade ago. (There’s a very useful account as of 2005 at this site.) The tale includes a joint bid in 2002 by several South Korean firms to build a CDMA network in Pyongyang, which sank when Washington made it clear it would not let Qualcomm sell the technology.

That false start apart, our Egyptian Columbus is ignoring, and perhaps usurping, a Thai Leif Ericsson in the shape of Loxley. Back in 1995, the Thai conglomerate set up a 70:30 joint venture, North East Asia Telephone & Telecommunication, with the very same partner Orascom has now bagged, KP&TC. NEAT&T had a 30-year “exclusive” concession - or so it thought.

They’re not the only ones. Hyundai used to vie with Samsung to be South Korea’s biggest chaebol or conglomerate. The group’s northern-born founder, the late Chung Ju-yung, was a pioneer of inter-Korean business. His reward was to be fleeced rotten by Pyongyang, which charged almost a billion dollars for a six-year tourist concession - and then coolly offered bits of it to rival operators like Lotte. As a result, Hyundai splintered into separate firms - and no other chaebol will touch the North with a bargepole. Cheating really doesn’t pay.

But back to the luck of the Loxleys. Having begun with a mainly fixed network in the Rason special economic zone in the northeast, several years later in 2003 Loxley rolled out mobile service in Pyongyang - only to see them banned after a mere six months. That was in May 2004, soon after a huge rail explosion destroyed a swath of the northwestern town of Ryongchon - hours after Kim Jong-il’s train had passed through from China. Officially an accident, one rumor is that this was an assassination attempt triggered by a mobile phone.

Whatever the reason, with service still suspended over a year later, Thailand’s then foreign minister, Kantathi Suphamongkhon, went to Pyongyang in August 2005 to fight Loxley’s corner. He got no joy. North Korea still bars hand-phones, confiscating them from the rare foreign visitor at the country’s Sunan airport and coming down hard on bold souls along the northern border who have illicit mobile phones using Chinese networks. Last October, a factory boss who made international calls from 13 lines - unlucky for some - installed in his basement was reportedly executed in a stadium in front of 150,000 people.

Dr. Foster-Carter gives a great summary of the DPRK’s mobile phone adventures, but I have a couple of data points that flush out the story a bit further.

While visiting Pyongyang in 2005, I personally witnessed an elite North Korean woman (who also claimed to have a reserved room at the Koryo) discretely use a mobile phone, then wrap it in a pink handkerchief a store it in her purse.  Even my guides were shocked, having previously told me that cell phones were recalled for security reasons.  One told me, “She must be special, I am just a normal person.”

Additionally, many journalists to the country are provided with state-sanctioned cell phones to use.  I met a reporter from Reuters who had one.

The full article can be found here:
North Korea: The Columbus complex
Asia Times
Aidan Foster-Carter
2/2/2008

Orascom Telecom
(Hat tip to Werner)
1/30/2008

Orascom Telecom Holding S.A.E. (“OTH” or “Orascom Telecom”) announced today that it has been granted the first commercial license to provide mobile telephony services in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (“DPRK”) using WCDMA (3G) technology.

The license was granted to OTH’s subsidiary CHEO Technology JV Company (“CHEO”) which is controlled by Orascom Telecom with an ownership of 75% while the remaining 25% is owned by the state owned Korea Post and Telecommunications Corporation. The terms of the license allows CHEO to offer services to its customer throughout the country, the duration of the license is 25 years with an exclusivity period of four years. Orascom Telecom intends to invest up to US$400 million in network infrastructure and license fee over the first three years in order to rapidly deploy a high quality network and offer voice, data and value added services at accessible prices to the Korean people. OTH intends to cover Pyongyang and most of the major cities during the first 12 months of operations.

The DPRK has a population of approximately 23 million of which 67% is between the age of 15 and 64 years, moreover, there is currently no mobile services in the country. The operation in the DPRK will complement OTH’s existing operations in Asia and will further enhance OTH’s position as the leading GSM operator in the emerging markets.

Naguib Sawiris, Chairman & CEO, Orascom Telecom, stated “We are continuing to head in the right strategic direction; our Greenfield license in the DPRK is in line with our strategy to penetrate countries with high population and low penetration by providing the first mobile telephony services. OTH has consistently proved its ability to successfully roll out mobile services into countries where no other operator has. OTH will continue to increase shareholder value and maintain its leadership in the markets it operates in.”

About Orascom Telecom
Orascom Telecom is a leading international telecommunications company operating GSM networks in six high growth markets in the Middle East, Africa and South Asia, having a total population under license of approximately 430 million with an average mobile telephony penetration of approximately 37% as at September 30th 2007. Orascom Telecom operates GSM networks in Algeria (”OTA”), Pakistan (”Mobilink”), Egypt (”Mobinil”), Tunisia (”Tunisiana”), Bangladesh (”Banglalink”), and Zimbabwe (”Telecel Zimbabwe”). Orascom Telecom had reached approximately 65 million subscribers as at September 2007.

Orascom Telecom is traded on the Cairo & Alexandria Stock Exchange under the symbol (ORTE.CA, ORAT EY), and on the London Stock Exchange its GDR is traded under the symbol (ORTEq.L, OTLD LI).

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
8/1/2007

INTER-KOREAN RELATIONS

Following two days of talks between economic representatives of the two Koreas at the Kaesong Industrial Complex, South Korea announced on July 7 that it would begin shipping raw materials to the North in exchange for DPRK natural resources. South Korea shipped 800,000 USD of polyester fabric on July 25, and is set to send the rest of the materials by the end of November. North Korea accepted South Korean prices for the goods, and will pay transportation, cargo working, and demurrage costs, as well. South Korea will pay for shipping, insurance, and the use of port facilities. On 28 July, a South Korean delegation left for the North in order to conduct on-site surveys of three zinc and magnesite mines. The team will spend two weeks in North Korea.

It was reported on 17 July that North Korea proposed a joint fishing zone north of the ‘Northern Limit Line’ dividing North and South territorial waters to the west of the peninsula. Seoul turned down the offer.

Inter-Korean military talks broke down early on 26 July after only three days of negotiations as North Korea insisted on the redrawing of the Northern Limit Line.

North Korea demanded on 27 July that workers in the Kaesong Industrial Complex be given a 15 percent pay raise. The North Korean workers will not work overtime, weekends or holidays beginning in August unless the raise is granted.

It was reported by the Korea International Trade Association on 26 July that inter-Korean trade was up 28.6 percent in the first six months of 2007, totaling 720 million USD.

RUSSIA-DPRK INVESTMENT

It was reported on 19 July that Russia and North Korea have agreed to connect Khasan and Najin by rail, enlisting investment from Russian oil companies interested in an inactive refinery at Najin Port capable of processing up to 120,000 barrels per day. The project is estimated to cost over two billion USD.

MONGOLIA-DPRK RELATIONS

During a four-day visit to Mongolia by Kim Yong-nam beginning on 20 July, the two countries signed protocols on cooperation on health and science, trade and sea transport, and labor exchange issues. This follows on the heals of an agreement to allow South Korean trains to travel through North Korean territory on to Mongolia in route to Russia and Europe.

JAPAN-DPRK PROPAGANDA

Japan took one step further to recover abductees in North Korea this month when the government began broadcasting propaganda into the DPRK intended for Japanese citizens. The broadcasts are made in Korean and Japanese (30 minutes each) daily, and updated once per week.

U.S.-DPRK PEACE PROSPECTS

U.S. Ambassador to the ROK Alexander Vershbow stated that Washington was prepared to negotiate a permanent peace regime on the Korean Peninsula by the end of the year if North Korea were to completely abandon its nuclear ambitions.

EGYPT-DPRK INVESTMENT

The Egyptian company Orascom Construction Industries announced a 115 million USD deal with North Korea’s state-owned Pyongyang Myongdang Trading Corporation to purchase a 50 percent state in Sangwon Cement. To put this in perspective, the deal in worth more than four times the amount of frozen DPRK funds that had caused six-party talks to break down and delayed the implementation of the February 13 agreement.

NORTH KOREAN SOCIETY

The Economist reported on 7 July that, according to foreigners living in the North’s capital, concern for petty law appears to be weakening. Citizens are reportedly smoking in smoke-free zones, sitting on escalator rails, and even blocking traffic by selling wares on the streets.

It was reported on July 11 that a letter sent earlier in the year by the North Korean Red Cross indicated severe shortages of medical supplies. The letter stated that North Korea would accept any medicine, even if it was past expiration, and accept all consequences for any problems that arose from using outdated supplies. The (South) Korea Pharmaceutical Manufacturers Association had no choice but to reject the request.

Events were held on July 11 in North Korea in order to promote women’s health and well-being issues. Marking World Population Day, a North Korean official stated that the DPRK has cooperated with the UN Population Fund since 1986, and is now in the fourth phase of cooperation.

Seeing entertainment venues as a “threat to society”, North Korean security forces have been implementing a shutdown of karaoke bars and Internet cafes. These venues mainly cater to traders in the northern regions of the country.

It was reported on July 13 that construction of North Korea’s first all-English language university was nearing completion. The Pyongyang University of Science and Technology, funded largely by ROK and U.S. Christian evangelical groups, will hold 2600 students and offer undergraduate and post-graduate degrees in business administration, information technology, and agriculture.

Local elections were held on 29 July for DPRK provincial, city, and country People’s Assemblies. 100 percent of 27,390 candidates were approved with a 99.82 percent turnout reported.