North Korean Economy Watch

Pictured Above: The DPRK’s two most famous waterways are the Paekma-Cholsan Waterway (see here and here) and the Kaechon-Lake Thaesong Waterway. A third waterway in the Miru Plain is too recent to appear on Google Earth.

 According to KCNA (2012-1-26):

Waterway to Be Built in South Hwanghae Province, DPRK

Pyongyang, January 26 (KCNA) — A gravity-fed waterway will be built in South Hwanghae Province.

It is another gigantic nature-remaking project in the era of Songun as part of the far-sighted nature-harnessing plan of leader Kim Jong Il and the dear respected Kim Jong Un.

The completion of the waterway will help sufficiently irrigate tens of thousands of hectares of farmland and tideland-turned rice fields including those in Ongjin, Kangryong, Pyoksong and other several counties to ensure a safe and high yield of grain.

It will also help save tens of thousands of kilowatt of electricity and make a great contribution to the economic development and improvement of people’s living standard by preventing the damage by flood in the area along Jaeryong River.

A ground-breaking ceremony took place in Haeju City on Thursday.

Present there were Choe Yong Rim, Kim Ki Nam and other senior officials and officials of ministries and national institutions, builders and working people.

As the DPRK’s “rice bowl”, South Hwanghae Province is home to at least three additional large-scale agricultural projects at the moment: Pujiman Tideland Reclamation (Ongjin), Ryongmae Island (룡매도) land reclamation project, and the Sohae-ri-Nunggum Island Tedeland Reclamation.

Pictured above (Google Earth) is Changsong Town in North Pyongan Province. This town is the home of the Changsong Joint Conference which was held in August 1962.  This meeting was referenced in the DPRK’s most recent Cabinet plenary meeting on the DPRK economy.

According to KCNA (2012-1-22):

An enlarged Cabinet plenary meeting was held.

Present there were Premier Choe Yong Rim and cabinet members.

Attending the meeting as observers were senior officials of the organizations under direct control of the Cabinet, directors of management bureaus, chairpersons of provincial, city and county people’s committees, chairpersons of provincial rural economy committees, chairpersons of provincial planning committees, directors of provincial foodstuff and daily necessities management bureaus and managers of major factories and enterprises.

Prior to the meeting, the participants paid silent tribute to the memory of leader Kim Jong Il.

The meeting reviewed the fulfillment of last year’s national economic plan and discussed how to implement the decision of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Workers’ Party of Korea, joint calls of the WPK Central Committee and the Central Military Commission and the militant task put forward in the joint New Year editorial.

Vice-Premier Ro Tu Chol made a report to be followed by speeches.

The enlarged meeting set it as a priority task for this year to direct efforts into developing light industry and agriculture to improve the people’s livelihood and successfully carrying out the WPK’s prosperity-oriented strategy in the pilot domains and basic industries of the national economy upholding the flames of South Hamgyong Province. It also indicated the tasks and ways for it.

Also discussed was an issue of raising higher the flames of great innovation of South Hamgyong Province in the light industrial and agricultural fields.

The meeting mentioned the need to produce quality consumer goods favored by the people in the field of light industry and effect a decisive turn in development of local industry this year marking the 50th anniversary of the historic Changsong joint conference.

It also stressed the need for ministries and national institutions to help Changsong County in its industrial development.

Also discussed at the meeting were such issues as fulfilling the assignments for grain production for 2012 both in lowland and mountainous areas, making the best use of modern stockbreeding and poultry bases and large fruit and fish farms as well as the tasks for ministries and national institutions to preferentially supply materials, equipment and electricity to farming processes.

The meeting drew attention to the tasks for the industrial fields of electric power, coal, metal, railways and machine and construction and building materials, etc.

The meeting tabled the tasks for all ministries, national institutions and provincial people’s committees to lay their own scientific and technological foundations for stepping up the work for turning the economy into one based on technology in a forward-looking manner as required by the industrial revolution in the new century.

It also discussed the tasks for the fields of education, literature and art, public health, sports, capital construction, land management and urban management.

The meeting stressed the need for all economic officials to preserve the socialist principle and ensure profitability in economic management, operate and manage the economic work on the basis of detailed calculation and science as well as the need for ministries, national institutions and industrial establishments to set up strict order regarding planning, financial dealings and administration.

Relevant decisions were made at the meeting.

As premier of the Cabinet Choe Yong-rim has made quite a few prominent appearances in the DPRK media in the last two years which highlight his official efforts to improve the North Korean economy. His most recent public appearance (January 12) is reported to have been at the Jenam Coal Mine.

Kim Jong-un, however, is not a member of the Cabinet, so he did not attend the meeting. To date his legitimacy is being established through his relationship to Kim Jong-il/Kim Il-sung and as a leader of the KPA—rather than as a leader in the government or even the party (at least so far).

As a result, Kim Jong-un’s guidance visits have consisted almost exclusively of visits to KPA units.  In this month alone, he has visited the 105 Tank Brigade, KPA Unit 169, KPA Unit 3870, KPA Unit 354, KPA Unit 671, and the KPA soldiers constructing the Pyongyang Folk Village on the outskirts of Pyongyang. Uriminzokkiri has also credited him with spearheading the DPRK’s nuclear tests.

UPDATE: Here is Yonhap coverage of the meeting.

“Changsong Joint Conference”
The KCNA article prompted me to look into the “Changsong Joint Conference”, a term that did not ring a bell. The most recent reference I can find to it is this blurb from a March 2011 article in Korea Magazine:

The Changsong Joint Conference of Local Party and Economic Officials was held in August 1962.

The conference marked the beginning of developing the local industry throughout the country.

In recent years the county has made strenuous efforts to carry out the plan of the Workers’ Party of Korea for the building of a thriving nation and achieved many successes.

Hundreds of hectares of forests of raw materials and timber forests including pine-nut, wild-walnut and larch forests have been newly created.

The Changsong Foodstuff Factory gathers in scores of kinds of wild fruits including acorns, wild grapes, fruits of Actinidia arguta and Crataegus pinnatifida every year in mountains.

Recently its officials and workers have modernized all production processes including wild fruit drinks and wines as required in the IT age to produce foodstuffs in time.

Wines made from the fermented juice of wild grapes, fruits of Actinidia arguta and other wild fruits, Crataegus pinnatifida, Rubus crataegifolius, carbonated Actinidia arguta and other fruit juices, dried bracken and sliced bracken and other wild vegetables preserved in soy sauce are in great demand for their peculiar flavour.

The Changsong Textile Mill which started operation with six housewives has been turned into a modern fabric producer. As a treasure mill, it makes a great contribution to the improvement of the people’s standard of living. It produces quality fabrics, woolen knitted goods and quilts and blankets with local raw materials.

The Changsong Paper Mill produces paper from ground pulp. It has streamlined the equipment to improve the qualities of goods.

Looking round the local-industry factories in Changsong County in November last year, Kim Jong Il kindled the flame of developing the local industry throughout the country after the model of Changsong.

Changsong County stands at the head of development of local industry. Now its people work harder to change further the looks of their home village.

Another blogger seems to have located a single page of a book on the Changsong Joint Conference. Fortunately, he typed out the introduction:

The great leader Comrade Kim Il Sung had made a farsighted plan for bridging the gap between town and country and between regions and raising equally the living standards of all the working people. For this Changsong County had been taken as a model.

The great leader who had long pushed preparations for rapid improvement in the livelihood of the mountain peasants, studied deeply the state of affairs in this part of the country, and through his several on-the-spot guidances, paved the shortest cut to establish a socialist paradise.

In August 1962, in order to spread the example of Changsong across the land he convened the historic Changsong Joint Conference of Local Party and Economic Functionaries. There he put forward a new policy and overall ways and means to enhance the role of the county and develop local industry and agriculture, so as to improve radically the people’s living conditions.

In 1974, our people erected in Changsong the historic monument to the on-the-spot guidance of the respected and beloved leader Comrade Kim Il Sung, out of their wish to retell throughout generations the profound care of the fatherly leader who had shown the bright future of mountain villages and transformed that area into a people’s paradise fine to live in.

Kim Jong-il last visited Changsong in November 2010 where he visited the Changsong Foodstuff Factory, Changsong Textile Mill, and Changsong House of Culture. The first two locations are the shining examples of the success of the Changsong Joint Conference.  The Changsong House of Culture is where the meeting was officially held in 1962.

But if the goal of the conference is to reduce the disparity in the DPRK’s living standards, Changsong is probably not the best place to start. Changsong is home to one of the North Korean leadership’s most well-known luxury retreats.  This is because it was was extensively photographed by Kenji Fujimoto while he was working as Kim Jong-il’s personal chef.   See a satellite image and Mr. Fujimoto’s pictures of the compound here. You can see the Taegwan leadership train station Kim used to visit the compound here.

Pictured above (Yonhap): Food aid to be delivered to the DPRK (2012-1-27)

According to Yonhap:

Representatives of a South Korean charity group plan to visit North Korea next week to deliver 180 tons of flour aid to North Korea to help ease its chronic food shortages, officials said Friday.

The planned shipment by the Seoul-based Korea Peace Foundation marks the first flour assistance to the communist country following the death last month of North Korean leader Kim Jong-il.

The UNDP also made public that it will place a priority on the DPRK this year:

Radio Free Asia says the United Nations Development Programme will place a priority on improving food security in North Korea by reducing crop losses after harvests.

The U.S. based broadcaster said the UNDP plans to save more crops and improve seed production by revamping North Korea’s crop storage facilities and farm equipment such as threshers and grinders.

Around 15 percent of crops harvested in Pyeongyang are said to be damaged every year, while only 13 percent of the 150-thousand tons of seed produced meet international standards.

Food security is achieved by securing a certain amount of food, taking into account potential population increases, natural disasters and war.

Additional Notes:
1. I believe the “Korea Peace Foundation” is also the “Korean Conference of Religion and Peace (KCRP)”

2. Read about South Korea’s aid to the DPRK in 2011 here.

3. CNN also covered the story about South Korean food aid.

Read the full Yonhap article here:
S. Korean group to send first flour aid to N. Korea after Kim’s death
Yonhap
2012-1-20

According to the Daily NK:

There has been an upswing in prices and exchange rates in North Korea as East Asia moves towards the lunar New Year’s holiday, which falls on the 23rd.

A source from Hyesan in Yangkang Province told Daily NK this afternoon, “The number of people in the jangmadang is rising and trade is getting more active, and so the Yuan exchange rate and rice price are both on the up.” According to the source, the Yuan is trading for 680 North Korean Won, while rice is hovering at approximately 4,300.

A source from Musan in North Hamkyung Province previously reported similar circumstances to Daily NK on the 16th, with the Yuan at 780 Won and rice and corn at 4,500 Won and 800 Won respectively in the jangmadang there.

The current situation follows on from a price spike before Kim Jong Il’s death on December 17th [see here and here], the following mourning period (to the 29th) and criticism sessions (to January 8th). However, while at its height last month the price of the most expensive rice had hit 5,000 Won, by January 11th-14th it had declined to 3,000-3,500 Won in eastern regions. Now, however, with the holiday period ahead, prices are rising again.

“Although the self-criticism period ended, we still had to keep an eye on the security forces so the number of sellers in the jangmadang was what it used to be, but from a few days ago people started using the jangmadang as normal and the rice and Yuan prices started rising a bit,” the Hyesan source explained.

Interestingly, while the authorities have tried a number of measures to regulate the Sino-North Korean border and limit the use of foreign currency of late, sources report that the measures have only had a minor effect on prices and have not daunted the will of local people to trade at all.

Overseas currency is even being traded publicly somewhat more frequently now, sources report, showing the skepticism with which the people view official threats to stop the use of Yuan and U.S. Dollars in the market.

As the Musan source commented wryly, “People are saying that ‘If his dad couldn’t stop it, what is the young one going to do about it?’ and ‘As long as the Tumen River keeps flowing, they can’t stop the Yuan, the smuggling, or the defection.’”

Read the full story here:
New Year Seeing Active Trade
Daily NK
Lee Seok Young
2012-1-18

The Financial Times indirectly brings up the impact of a basic economic lesson, the tragedy of the commons, in a recent story on the DPRK’s fisheries. According to the article:

Supply disruptions are a fact of life in doing business with North Korea. “They are always stopping work for different reasons, for the anniversaries of leaders’ birthdays or whatever,” said Sha Zhibiao, manager of a fish shop in Yanji, the biggest Chinese city near the north-eastern tip of North Korea.

The main transit point for the crabs is Hunchun, a bustling Chinese border town that is a few hours from the North Korean port of Rajin.

While the North Koreans queue for meagre state hand-outs of grain, the Chinese traders in Rajin eat at Chinese-run restaurants or cook for themselves with supplies they bring in.

Doing business with North Koreans is fraught with uncertainty, according to Lu Zhentie, Mr Gao’s partner. “We agree on a price and then at the last second if they find someone who will pay more they cancel the entire deal. We cannot trust them.”

Mr Lu said the North Korean fishermen operate individually – a sliver of private-sector enterprise in the state-run economy – and their crabs are sold in a grey market that local officials allow to exist. “We give them sometimes Rmb10,000 ($1,580) for a catch. Some have become rich, but I have no idea what they do with their money. Even those who are rich still wear clothes like this,” Mr Lu said, pointing at a tear in his trousers.

All three said that Chinese demand for North Korean crabs had boomed in recent years – and that the North Koreans were flirting with trouble in trying to satisfy it. Mr Lu pointed to small crabs in his tanks, saying that the North Koreans should have thrown these back into the sea to sustain their fishery. “If they keep taking all these out, I don’t know how much longer their resource will last,” Mr Lu said.

Although the bulk of the article deals with challenges to the DPRK business environment that result from a poor institutional environment  (unannounced policy changes and unenforceable contracts) towards the end of the article another important idea is indirectly introduced: The tragedy of the commons. The tragedy of the commons occurs when multiple individuals, acting independently and rationally, will ultimately deplete a common-pool resource, even when everyone knows that it is not in anyone’s long-term interest for this to happen.

In the past, over-fishing was probably not a problem in the DPRK as all activity was coordinated through the Ministry of Fisheries. If anything, incentives in the socialist economic system probably resulted in fishing at levels below the sustainability threshold.  Today, however, de-facto independent fishermen are able (and encouraged) to over-fish the DPRK’s waters so they can export their catch to earn hard currency. Over-fishing is probably not an outcome that anybody wants, however, in the absence of a credibly enforced fishing quota or private property rights in fisheries, rational individual fishermen (who are competing with each other) will be financially rewarded for catching more and increasingly smaller fish and crabs, because if they do not, the next guy (a competitor) will.

Read the full story here:
Crabs offer lifeline for North’s economy
Financial Times
2011-12-23

According to the Daily NK:

The overbearing presence of ‘grain patrols’ is being keenly felt in North Korea these days. Formed at the municipal level from People’s Safety Ministry agents and Worker and Peasant Red Guards from factories and other enterprises, these groups of 20-30 individuals are busy manning checkpoints on main transit routes in agricultural areas to thoroughly restrict the movement of grains from cooperative farms and private plots.

To transit grain legally in North Korea at this time of year, a permit must be sought from the relevent Rural Management Committees. Those who do not hold the required documentation are meant to face punishment, although many simply bribe their way out of trouble. The patrols, which arrive in August, usually disband at the end of November.

A Hwanghae Province source recently told one Daily NK reporter, “They are blocking roads day and night inspecting people and their carts. They do not allow the carrying of any kind of foodstuff and confiscate without condition the goods of those caught.”

The source added, “Even people mobilized for the fall harvest are getting body searched; they are really annoyed.”

Another source from Pyongyang also described the scene, saying, “Currently the grain patrols are focusing on regulating the movement of corn, and are carefully watching for harvested corn being taken into people’s homes. So, some people get together to rent a car and bribe the patrol to be able to get around.”

The source also agreed that a substantial number of market traders are bribing guards and taking this year’s rice and corn from farms to sell.

Read the full story here:
Return of the Grain Patrol
Daily NK
Lee Seok Young
2011-11-15

1. “Relying on One’s Strength: The Growth of the Private Agriculture in Borderland Areas of North Korea”
Andrei Lankov，Seok Hyang Kim ，Inok Kwa
PDF of the article here 

The two decades which followed the collapse of the communist bloc were a period of dramatic social and economic transformation in North Korea. The 1990-2010 period was a time when market economy re-emerged in North Korea where once could be seen as the most perfect example of the Stalinist economic model. The present article deals with one of the major areas of socioeconomic change which, so far, has not been the focus of previous studies. The topic is about the growth of private agricultural activities in North Korea after 1990. This growth constitutes a significant phenomenon which has important social consequences and also is important from a purely economic point of view: it seems that the spontaneous growth of private plots played a major role in the recent improvement of the food situation inside North Korea.

______________________

3. Korea Sharing Movement anti-malarial program (Via Cancor)
Read a PDF of on the project here

______________________

4. What is it like to teach at the Pyongyang University of Science and Technology (PUST)?
Find out from one instructor here. More on PUST here.

According to the Daily NK:

New information suggests that the price of rice across North Korea now stands at more than 3,000 won per kilo, the highest market price since the currency redenomination of November 2009.

A source from Yanggang Province told The Daily NK on Friday, “The price of a kilo of rice has finally hit 3,000 won, having been only 2,600 won at the start of October. The won has gone down against the Chinese Yuan too, with one Chinese Yuan worth 515 North Korean won.”

Yesterday, a source from Sinuiju revealed that the cost of rice there has also risen to 3,000 won a kilo, saying, “People are bewildered as to why the cost of food has gone up so much, even though even the corn harvest has been gathered.” Sinuiju is always among the cheapest place to buy rice in North Korea due to its proximity to the major Chinese trading city of Dandong.

The situation is particularly surprising because the arrival of the autumn harvest would ordinarily be expected to drive down grain prices, or at the very least hold them steady. However, this year has seen poor weather feed concerns over crop yields, leading to rising prices throughout August and September. The average price in July, 2,000 won, was 2,500 won by late August. The exchange rate for Chinese Yuan has also been rising.

Some are predicting that the price fluctuations will level off with the end of the autumn harvest, while others believe that prices will simply move with the exchange rate, meaning greater uncertainty.

Read the full story here:
Rice Price Spike Defying Expectations
Daily NK
Kang Mi Jin
2011-10-15

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
2011-9-29

This year’s trade volume between China and the DPRK reached an all time high.

According to the (South) Korea Trade Investment Promotion Agency, the trade volume between China and North Korea between January and July of 2011 recorded 3.097 billion USD, surpassing last year’s 3.472 billion USD by 88 percent.

This is the second year since 2008 for the yearly trade volume to continue to break the record of the previous year.

During the same period, China exported 1.783 billion USD and imported 1.314 billion USD to North Korea. Compared to the same period last year, exports increased by 53.3 percent while imports increased by 169.2 percent, and its trade surplus decreased by 30.4 percent.

The main exports of China are oil, diesel freight vehicles, nitrogenous fertilizers, and grains while the top imports were anthracites, steel, and non-alloy pig irons.

The total amount of fertilizer North Korea imported between January and June totaled 193,960 tons (equaling about 39.88 million USD), a hike of 91 percent against last year’s 99,588 tons (25.4 million USD).

The price per ton of imported fertilizers was 188 USD for ammonium sulfate fertilizer (164,456 ton) and 346 USD for urea fertilizers (25,577 ton). Last year, 59,110 tons of ammonium sulfate fertilizer and 45,310 tons of urea fertilizer were imported. A drastically higher amount of ammonium sulfate fertilizer was imported this year compared with the previous year, the cause of which is speculated to be either a radical decrease in the fertilizer production in North Korea or an attempt to improve the country’s food production.

The total amount of grains imported from China from January to June totaled 149,173 tons, a boost of 5.5 percent from the previous year. The price of grain per ton went up from 372 USD to 404 USD, a rise of 8.6 percent. The cost of imported grain increased 14.4 percent against last year, an increase from 52.7 million USD to 63.1 million USD.

The grains imported were corn (38.2 percent), flour (37.5 percent), rice (16.9 percent), and bean (7.2 percent). Compared to last year, corn and flour imports rose while rice and bean slightly decreased. This year’s average price per ton of grain was 661 USD for bean, 538 USD for rice, 395 USD for flour, and 304 USD for corn.

According to Yonhap:

North Korea imported nearly three times as much grain from China in August as last year, an expert said Thursday, an unusual increase that may suggest food shortages in the impoverished nation have worsened.

The North purchased 47,978 tons of corn, flour and rice in August, up from 16,723 tons in the same period of last year, said Kwon Tae-jin, a North Korea expert at the Korea Rural Economic Institute.

“It is unusual that the North increased grain imports sharply in August ahead of the harvest season in fall,” Kwon said. “It is believed that the North increased imports as its grain stock is falling low.”

The North imported 216,535 tons of grain from China in the first eight months, a rise of 20 percent compared to the same period last year.

China is the North’s key ally, economic benefactor and diplomatic supporter.

North Korea suffered devastating floods in recent months that washed away tens of thousands of hectares of farmland, damage that is feared to threaten its already fragile food situation.

The North has relied on international handouts since the late 1990s when it suffered a massive famine that was estimated to have killed 2 million people.

Back in June 2011, Yonhap reported:

North Korea imported more than 50,000 tons of grains from its key ally China in May, an expert said Thursday, amid chronic food shortages in the North.

The North purchased 50,328 tons of corn, flour and rice in May, up 31.5 percent compared to the same period last year, said Kwon Tae-jin, a North Korea expert at the Korea Rural Economic Institute.

The North also imported 114,300 tons of fertilizer from China in the first five months, a rise of 39 percent compared to the same period last year, Kwon said, citing figures from Seoul’s Korea International Trade Association.

China is the North’s last remaining ally, key economic benefactor and diplomatic supporter.

In March, the U.N. food agency appealed for 430,000 tons of food aid to feed 6 million vulnerable North Korean people, a quarter of the country’s population.

Washington sent its delegation to North Korea in May to assess the food situation, though no decision on food aid has been made yet.

The North has relied on international handouts since the late 1990s when it suffered a massive famine that was estimated to have killed 2 million people.

However, the outside aid has dwindled following the North’s missile and nuclear tests and other provocations.

There are basically two conflicting narratives being played out in the media in regards to this kind of news. The first narrative is that heavy seasonal floods and typhoon damage wiped out a large percentage of North Korea’s fall harvest and they are in desperate need of food assistance. The second narrative is that the DPRK is boosting food stocks in advance of 2012, the year the country is supposed to transition into a “Strong and Prosperous Country” (according to official propaganda). Since the DPRK’s appeal for large-scale food aid has gone largely ignored by the international community (despite the best efforts of organizations like the UNWFP and charities like Samaritan’s Purse), the country is forced to increase food stocks through international trade if it wants to live up to the expectations it has created among the domestic population.  Meeting these expectations is especially important right now as they will play an important role in facilitating the leadership  transition to Kim Jong-il’s designated successor, Kim Jong-un.

I have been posting stories about this year’s food shortage here (though neglected for a couple of weeks).

Read the full stories here:
N. Korea’s grain imports from China increase threefold
Yonhap
2011-9-29

N. Korea increases grain imports from China
Yonhap
2011-6-30