Archive for May, 2018

The calm throughout the storm: North Korean market prices in May 2018

Thursday, May 31st, 2018

By Benjamin Katzeff Silberstein

Daily NK just released their market price index for May 29th. With that, we get a pretty clear picture of the market situation for the full month of May.

So, what’s new? Not much, and that is newsworthy in its own right. Throughout the period of so-called “maximum pressure” in economic sanctions pushed by the Trump administration, North Korean market prices have, save for some months of a shaky diesel market, remained remarkably stabile. This trend continued in May.

Overall, average rice prices for May, in three North Korean cities, was 5041 won per kg. The average USD-exchange rate for the same period was 8061 won for $1. For a simple point of comparison, the average three-city rice price for late April 2017 was 4900 won/kg, and for USD, 8057 won/$1. For early June, rice cost 5228/kg, and for USD, 8026 won/$1. That prices are climbing is fully natural given that we’re approaching the so-called “lean season”, when North Korea is at the furthest point from the last harvest, and closest to the coming one.

How these relatively stabile prices are maintained is still very much a mystery. I maintain that if “maximum pressure” was truly all-encompassing, it would be very unlikely for at least foreign currency prices not to be impacted. The government may be keeping market prices stabile by adding to the supply of food and foreign exchange from their own coffers, and in the case of the foreign exchange rate, by contracting the supply of won by drawing down on credit supply to state enterprises, for example. But news of economic management at this scale would likely have been reported by at least one of the many outlets that regularly publish economic news from North Korea sourced from people inside the country. As things stand right now, there’s much we don’t know, but if the North Korean economy is truly in a crisis mode, market prices aren’t reflecting such a state of affairs.

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North Korean seafood continuously sold in China

Thursday, May 31st, 2018

Benjamin Katzeff Silberstein

Reports Daily NK:

There has been further confirmation that North Korean seafood products are being sold in China despite sanctions on the export of such items by the UN Security Council.
Large volumes of North Korean seafood products that were smuggled into the country as recently as last year are now being processed by China’s customs authorities, Daily NK sources say.
A photo of traders running to line up around trucks full of North Korean dried fish in Jilin, Húnchūn and Bàiquán Xiàn after inspections by the customs authorities appears to support these allegations.
In the image, the traders appear to be competing for a share of the North Korean dried fish, which has become difficult to purchase since international sanctions took effect.
“The tax authorities at Quanhe Customs seem to be allowing the passage of trucks full of dried fish from North Korea,” said a China-based source on May 29. “Because of that, we have started to see North Korean seafood products in the markets of Yánjí.”
The source added that the import of North Korean seafood products had been “totally prohibited following sanctions last year,” but that imports have “increased recently.” It is likely that smuggling has enabled the products to show up in China.
Daily NK sources suspect that China is “turning a blind eye” to the prohibitions on North Korean exports following recent summits between the Chinese and North Korean leaders.
“The Chinese prohibited the importation of fish, shellfish, dried squid and pollack up until last year,” said a separate source in China close to North Korean affairs.
“But after about a year they seem to be loosening the prohibitions.”
In August 2017, the UN Security Council adopted Resolution 2371, which includes seafood products in the list of banned North Korean export items. China announced a complete ban on the import of North Korean seafood products on August 15, 2017.
North Korean seafood products smuggled in via China ‘s customs authorities
Moon Dong Hui
Daily NK
2018-05-31
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Recap: South Korea’s economic plans for North Korea

Monday, May 28th, 2018

Benjamin Katzeff Silberstein

In this post, I’ll be collecting news and information on Moon Jae-in’s plans and ideas for economic development in North Korea. I’ve had to take a little break from blogging for the past couple of weeks due to travel, so the articles here won’t necessarily be recent or up-to-date, especially since up-to-date regarding the Korean peninsula these days seems to extend only to the last five minutes or so.

For the contents of the Panmunjom Declaration that have to do with the North Korean economy, feel free to check out this post, where I make the case (which still holds, I would argue) for why infrastructure is the most plainly obvious as of now for economic cooperation with North Korea in the wake of the latest warming of ties.

Infrastructure was an important component of the famed USB-stick that Moon handed to Kim at the first inter-Korean summit this year. Hankyoreh:

South President Moon Jae-in ordered a joint inter-Korean research effort to examine future economic cooperation ahead of the anticipated lifting of international sanctions against North Korea following an upcoming North Korea-US summit, which will follow up the inter-Korean summit that was held on Apr. 27.

Speaking on Apr. 30 at the first Blue House senior secretaries’ and aides’ meeting since the inter-Korean summit, President Moon said he “look[ed] forward to us being able to carry out a joint inter-Korean research effort for implementation of the Oct. 4 Summit Declaration [of 2007] and inter-Korean economic cooperation,” a key Blue House official reported.“He was saying we need joint research to examine what kinds of economic cooperation the South and North can engage in ahead of [sanctions against North Korea] being lifted,” the official explained.

During their summit, President Moon also personally gave North Korean leader Kim Jong-un a pamphlet on his “new economic vision” and a USB device containing a presentation video, the Blue House reported.

The materials reportedly contained details on power plant construction and other economic cooperation measures that could be implemented once inter-Korean relations gain momentum and sanctions against North Korea are lifted.During the Apr. 30 meeting, President Moon described the Panmunjeom Declaration as “a peace declaration proclaiming to the world that there will be no more threat of war or nuclear weapons on the Korean Peninsula.”

Article source:
South Korean President Moon Jae-in orders joint research effort for inter-Korean economic cooperation
Seong Yeon-cheol
Hankyoreh
2018-05-01

New York Times noted the somewhat ironic fact that Kim received Moon’s plan on a USB-stick, an item whose use by its own citizens the North Korean regime has long cracked down on:

For years, Kim Jong-un, North Korea’s leader, has been cracking down on USB flash drives that activists smuggle into his isolated country to poison his people’s minds with outside influences, like South Korean K-pop music.

But last month, when he met with the South’s president, Moon Jae-in, Mr. Moon handed him a USB drive that contained quite a different message.

In charts and video clips, Mr. Moon’s memory stick laid out a “new economic map for the Korean Peninsula,” including new railways and power plants for the impoverished North, should Mr. Kim abandon his nuclear weapons, according to South Korean officials.

Mr. Moon based his sales pitch on the belief that Mr. Kim wants to become the North Korean equivalent of Deng Xiaoping, who oversaw the economic liberalization of China. In this view, Mr. Kim may be willing to transform his pariah state by trading in his nuclear arsenal for diplomatic and economic incentives he needs to achieve prosperity.

[…]

“Kim Jong-un’s desire to develop his country’s economy is as strong as, and even stronger than, his desire for nuclear weapons,” said Lee Jong-seok, a former unification minister of South Korea. “But he knows he cannot achieve the kind of rapid economic growth in China that he envisions for his country while keeping his nuclear weapons — because of the sanctions.”

[…]

Vilified as he was, however, Mr. Kim has also shown signs of being a reformer, granting farms and factories more autonomy, allowing more markets to open, and setting off a building boom in his showcase capital, Pyongyang. He exhorts his country to follow “international development trends” and “global standards” and even admits failing to deliver on his promise that his long-suffering people would “no longer have to tighten their belts.”

“My desires were burning all the time, but I spent the past year feeling anxious and remorseful for the lack of my ability,” Mr. Kim said in a nationally broadcast speech last year, a startling admission for a member of the family that has ruled North Korea with the help of a personality cult since its founding in 1948.

After meeting him, Mr. Moon called Mr. Kim “open-minded and practical.”

Nowhere is Mr. Kim’s dilemma better seen than in his policy of “byungjin,” or parallel advance, which seeks a nuclear arsenal and economic development simultaneously. Under that policy, Mr. Kim has rapidly developed his country’s nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs, arguing that a nuclear deterrent would make his country feel secure enough to focus on rebuilding the economy. But the world has responded by imposing crippling sanctions.

[…]

If Mr. Kim pursues the route of economic reform, energy and transportation are the two areas where he most needs outside help. In his meeting with Mr. Moon, Mr. Kim admitted to the “embarrassing” condition of his roads and railways, South Korean officials said.

Trains running on electricity remain North Korea’s main means of transport, carrying 90 percent of its cargo and 60 percent of its passenger traffic, according to Ahn Byung-min, a senior analyst at the South’s government-funded Korea Transport Institute. But its rail systems are so decrepit that its fastest train, which runs to the Chinese border from Pyongyang, travels at 28 miles an hour. Other trains run at less than half that speed, Mr. Ahn said.

Lacking cash for oil imports, North Korea produces all its electricity from hydroelectric dams and coal-burning power plants. But the country’s power industry is trapped in a vicious cycle, energy experts say. Chronic electricity shortages make it difficult to produce coal and transport it to power plants. People in search of firewood for heat and cooking have denuded their hills, causing floods and droughts and making silt pile up at dams. That cuts down hydroelectric generation.

North Korea’s electricity generation amounts to only 4.4 percent of South Korea’s, according to Park Eun-jeong, an analyst at the South’s Korea Development Bank. The country prioritizes supplying electricity to lighting statues of Mr. Kim’s father and grandfather, who had ruled before him, while passengers wait for hours in trains unable to move because of power shortages, according to defectors from the country.

“Electricity is the Achilles’ heel for North Korea,” said Lee Jong-heon, an energy analyst in Seoul.

Mr. Moon’s proposal to modernize the North’s roads and railways and link them to the South’s is not meant to help just North Korea.

South Korean policymakers say that the two Koreas must first integrate their economies to make an eventual reunification less chaotic. They also envision building trans-Korean railways to find faster and cheaper routes to export South Korean goods to China, Russia and Europe, and bring Russian oil and gas into the South through pipelines for its power-hungry economy.

Full article and source:
South Korea Hands Kim Jong-un a Path to Prosperity on a USB Drive
Choe Sang-hun
New York Times
2018-05-10

Moon’s plan consists of three “economic belts”, as South China Morning Post notes, with infrastructure links that carry great potential gains for China and Russia as well:

President Moon Jae-in gave the North’s leader Kim Jong-un a USB drive containing a “New Economic Map of the Korean Peninsula” at the fortified border village of Panmunjom on April 27.

The initiative included three economic belts – one connecting the west coast of the peninsula to China, making the region a centre of logistics; one connecting the east coast to Russia for energy cooperation and one on the current border to promote tourism.

Whilst sources at the South Korean presidential office did not give further details about the information contained in the drive, they confirmed that the plan was in line with Moon’s “Berlin speech” last year when he outlined his basic approach to the north on a visit to the German capital.

During last year’s presidential election campaign, Moon pledged to merge the two Koreas’ economies in a single market to lay the foundations for unification.

Park Byeong-seug, a South Korean lawmaker from Moon’s ruling Democratic Party of Korea, said the proposal was in line with Moon’s campaign promises.

“The concept of the three belts was one of President Moon’s pledges during the election last year,” Park said.

“The new economic map includes railway links between the two Koreas and China’s northeast stretching all the way to Europe.”

One part of the plan would involve the construction of a rail link starting in Mokpo on the southwest tip of the peninsula, passing through Seoul and Pyongyang and the North’s Special Administrative Region of Sinuiju, before reaching Beijing.

Beijing is likely to welcome Seoul’s proposal as it accords with the core Chinese national interest of enhancing sustainable economic development and boosting the country’s northeastern rust belt.

Cheng Xiaohe, a deputy director at the centre for international strategic studies at Renmin University said Beijing may try to incorporate the plan into its Belt and Road Initiative.

“The northeast has been China’s weakest link and seen poor economic development for years. A rail link could make a real difference to the region,” Cheng said.

Improving the area’s logistics would also benefit China as its access to the open seas in that part of the world is physically blocked by the Korean peninsula and Russia’s far east.

North Korea’s economy is also closely tied to the northeast of China and opening up the reclusive state’s markets could provide new opportunities for the Chinese provinces on its border.

Lu Chao, a research fellow at Liaoning Academy of Social Sciences, said: “The plan would have a huge impact on China’s northeastern region as it would transform the region as a centre of logistics in East Asia, which could function as a driving force for the rapid economic growth of the region.”

“The northeast is the region with the greatest economic potential in China. A railway connection would bring a myriad of investments from overseas and would help the economy take off.”

[…]

South Korea would have to allow its allies and the UN to mediate any easing of sanctions before it could establish any economic cooperation with the North.

Moon Chung-in, a special foreign affairs and national security adviser in Seoul, said last month that Seoul’s economic incentives would compensate Pyongyang for freezing its missile programme, disclosing its nuclear capacity and allowing international inspections within its borders.

Full article and source:
Seoul offers Kim Jong-un grand bargain to link North and South Korean economies with China
Lee Jeong-ho
South China Morning Post
2018-05-07

Not surprisingly, Hyundai Asan is hoping to get in on whatever action may come. CNN:

Hyundai Group said Tuesday [May 8th] that it’s setting up a task force to prepare for the potential restarting of economic projects in North Korea.

The announcement comes shortly after a historic summit between South Korean President Moon Jae-in and North Korean supreme leader Kim Jong Un at which they committed themselves to rebuilding ties after years of tensions.

Hyundai Group, which split from the Hyundai Motor Group in 2000, was involved in various business projects in North Korea in the past, including a mountain resort and the Kaesong industrial complex, where North Korean workers made goods for South Korean companies.

“Hyundai needs to be ready when/if the two Koreas agree on terms and inter-Korean economic cooperation resumes,” a company spokesman said.

Hyundai will be closely monitoring the planned summit between Kim and US President Donald Trump that’s expected to take place in the coming weeks, as well as any potential changes to the heavy sanctions in place on North Korea’s economy, the spokesman said.

The Kaesong complex, a symbol of cooperation between the two Koreas, was closed as relations deteriorated in 2016. More than 120 South Korean companies had a presence there, employing tens of thousands of North Koreans and providing a steady stream of foreign currency to the regime in Pyongyang.

Hyundai also previously operated a tourist resort at North Korea’s Mount Kumgang, near the border with South Korea. It was shut down in 2008 after a South Korean tourist was killed by a North Korean soldier.

The company’s ties to North Korea go back to Hyundai’s late founder, Chung Ju-young, who was born there.

Last week, South Korean Deputy Prime Minister Kim Dong-yeon said the country’s government was “considering various scenarios” for economic cooperation between the two Koreas.

“The government is preparing response plans to different scenarios in terms of how and how fast to pursue [economic cooperation] and how to procure the resources for it,” he said.

South Korea’s government has allocated about $900 million to fund economic projects that involve both countries this year, according to the minister.

Full article and source:
Hyundai Group is getting ready to do business in North Korea again
Daniel Shane
CNN
2018-05-08

To be sure, preparations and planning are well underway in Seoul. Reuters:

South Korea’s finance minister said on Wednesday [May 2nd] the government was discussing how to finance possible economic projects with North Korea, although any projects with Pyongyang must first be approved by the international community.

“We’re internally carrying out preparations, in terms of what to prepare, and how to cooperate with the international community, and how to finance (possible inter-Korea projects),” Kim Dong-yeon told reporters in Sejong.

“But we need support from the international community and need to watch the (upcoming) summit between the United States and North Korea,” Kim said, without elaborating on specifics of any government financing.

Kim’s comments come after South Korean President Moon Jae-in and his North Korean counterpart Kim Jong Un agreed last Friday on a common goal of a “nuclear free” peninsula, and to “adopt practical steps towards the connection and modernization of the railways and roads”.

Many speculate that the two Koreas will start joint infrastructure projects as soon as international sanctions on North Korea are lifted. Currently, North Korea is under sanctions imposed by the U.N. Security Council to stop its nuclear weapons and missiles programs.

Kim also said there was a rise in the number of Chinese tourists in March although the services sector has not yet recovered from a drop in such visitors due to tensions between the two countries.

“The number of Chinese tourists is noticeably increasing since March, although it hasn’t recovered to the pre-Thaad level,” Kim said.

Tourist numbers plunged last year after South Korea angered China by deploying a U.S. Terminal High Altitude Area Defence (THAAD) system that features radar which Beijing believes could be used to penetrate its territory.

Full article and source:
South Korea considers financing of possible inter-Korea projects: finance minister
Reuters
2018-05-02

To be continued and updated…

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North Korean laws and regulations for consumer needs

Wednesday, May 2nd, 2018

Benjamin Katzeff Silberstein

An interesting column in the Daily NK reflects on changes in the North Korean system both to protect consumers, and boost domestic consumer goods production. The author, Na Jung Won, sources some of these insights from North Korean academic journals, pointing out that one article going back as far as to 2012 studies the insights into marketing strategy from the “Boston Consulting Group Matrix”, which I found pretty interesting, and one might wonder whether Choson Exchange has played a role in bringing this particular insight into the country. Overall, North Korean journals tend to often include references to theoretical models that are sometimes unexpected, given the largely closed-off nature of academia and research there.

Here’s the column:

Research has found that the North Korean economy has been growing continuously since the start of the Kim Jong Un era, despite economic sanctions and pressure from the international community. One can thus conclude that the North is able to maintain effective domestic growth while to some extent avoiding the effects of such outside variables. But in order to understand this economic growth, it is important to take a closer look at the North’s particular style of business administration.
Changing business law in North Korea
There have been two revisions or additions to North Korea’s business law since Kim Jong Un came to power – one enacted on November 5, 2013, and the other on May 21, 2015 – changing official business justifications and definitions, organizational principles, and management principles that are beginning to be reflected on the ground in the country.
Chapter 1 Article 4 of the business law covering management principles states, “In precisely laying out the nation’s management strategy and business strategy, ‘the administration of socialist business responsibility’ shall be carried out, and management activities must be carried out with socialism as the most fundamental underlying principle.” Chapter 4 is titled ‘Business Management,’ while Chapter 29 covers the same topic. Chapter 30 covers business strategy and the foundation for related business rights over socialist ownership, spelling out the management activities that must be carried out in realizing business development.
The entire system of financial management is governed under these business strategies, including item prices, sales, and salary standards. There is also a system for business capital, which spells out rights to earnings for companies, the unemployment payment system, and how companies can acquire loans from a commerce bank. Sales and pricing rights and restrictions are placed on products, contract requirements for distribution, sales, and trade in other products are described, and rules are laid out for how buyers can return problematic or poor-quality products which were misrepresented under the purchasing contract.
Trends in North Korean business administration research
North Korea is positioning its businesses and factories to increase their capabilities and follow global technological trends under its latest ‘five-year strategy for national economic development,’ revealing a shift in concern toward enacting effective changes to the previous, more centrally-planned economic strategy.
Research by Kim Kyung Ok for Economic Study No. 174 (2017-1) states: “Expanding production and planning rights for businesses must include contracts, and ordering contracts which are made under consideration of state central planning and quota fulfillment. Businesses are not permitted to unilaterally cancel contracts without justification, and consultations must be made between the parties to the contract over any changes or cancellations. The results are reviewed by the relevant organs and the agreed-upon production plan must be carried out under strict rules.” In other words, a system has been established to ensure that production contracts are carried out properly.
It implies that order contract fulfillment is extremely important even for ordinary businesses. Research by Rim Yong Chan for Economic Study No. 154 (2012-1) states that companies must follow contracts for producing and delivering products to the letter. Cha Jong Kyung writes for Economic Study No. 162 (2014-1) that agreements between factories and businesses must be made under a registered contract stipulating set rules for prices and collateral to ensure each party’s claim to profits. Rules for contracts for production materials, delivery, and other aspects of the process all help establish emerging new responsibilities for all parties involved.
North Korea is also increasing research into financial concepts such as credit and non-cash money, hoping to reap the benefits of development through credit and move towards creating new capital in addition to simply saving money. The idea is that diversifying credit-based transaction types will improve consumers’ purchasing power and economic activity as a whole.
Marketing has also been the subject of research in North Korea. Economic Study No. 156 (2012-3) by Pak Chun Gwang points to differing payment abilities and demands from residents in different areas and in different seasons of the year, as well as how the growing demands in material culture are affecting available products and services. In other words, matching resident needs and demand for products will have to be carried out according to regional and seasonal ‘targeting’ and ‘positioning.’ In additional research utilizing the principles of product lifecycle (PLC) management and the ‘Boston Consulting Group Matrix’ (typically referred to as the BCG Matrix), concepts of ‘cost leadership’ and ‘differentiation’ in international business management are discussed.
Effects of changing business administration
Various approaches to business management are practiced in workplaces across North Korea. After repairing the Gold Cup Food Processing Plant (est. 2006) in 2015, the previously low-volume operation increased from producing 360 products in less than 10 categories to over 600 products in close to 30 categories in November 2017.
A ‘New Products Expo’ starting in August 2017 was used to showcase the country’s domestic products, promoting the customer’s needs as the most important aspect. President of the beverage industry group Rim Song Chol said in an interview, “We are looking to the global market as we produce new products, but we are communicating with and listening to our customers as our number-one concern in informing the products we make,” implying that customer demand for a product is the most important factor in their process.
Producers are saying they will halt production for items that do not sell very well in the markets. The use of information management systems in the manufacturing process is also being promoted as helping producers make decisions over materials or whether or not to continue production, where unsuccessful new products are discontinued.
The Kim Jong Suk Pyongyang Textile Mill has also apparently shifted production to fabric for business suits after an increase in customer demand, running a synthetic fabric factory in Pyongyang to create a variety of suit material options according to specific orders. Competition in this market is heating up due in part to the use of synthetic fabric recycling for the suits. ‘Tetoron’ synthetic fabric production at the Kim Jong Suk Pyongyang Textile Mill is thus steadily rising, and customers such as the North’s official female marching band were able to demand custom colors and styles for their uniforms.
Product distribution companies are also changing to meet the needs of customers, with a lively and competitive market of service providers working to gain a leg up on their competitors. The Kwangbok Area Shopping Center, formerly the Kwangbok Department Store (est. 1991 and renovated in 2011), became a place where domestic products were sold under customer-responsive profit principles. In order to increase the variety of available products, government-affiliated domestic producers such as clothing and foodstuff factories are in the midst of improving capabilities and product quality. To attract more customers and increase sales, lighting fixtures are being improved in the shops and displays appear brighter and more modern. The third floor of the shopping center includes a buffet-style restaurant with over 400 menu items. Shops also offer loyalty cards to encourage repeat visits and offer rewards.
The Pyongyang Department Store No. 1 (est. 1982, Jung-gu district) is a top competitor of the Kwangbok Area Shopping Center. There, shops order directly from production companies, and it has become known among consumers in the capital as a place selling all the latest and most popular items. Aiming to become a ‘Shopping Center for the People’s Desires,’ this department store is also focusing on customers’ needs. Shops have instituted a system to track customer reactions and the popularity of items through sales records. These are just some of the latest signs of increasing attention being paid to customer demand in North Korea.
Source:
North Korean business developments reflect focus on ‘customer needs’
Na Jung Won
Daily NK
2018-05-01
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