MacArthur Foundation working papers on DPRK collapse

Here is the text from the MacArthur Foundation:

North Korean Contingency and Prospects of China’s Military Intervention (PDF)
Park Changhee considers whether China would intervene with its military in the event of breakdown. A number of contingencies could occur in North Korea which could pose a direct threat to Chinese security and, Park argues, the prospect that the reunification of North and South Korea could result in a unified Korea as a U.S. ally means that China’s security is at stake even without direct threats in the form of refugee flows or instability among China’s Korean community. He concludes that given what is at stake on the peninsula for China, South Korea should expect and plan for Chinese involvement in a regime crisis in North Korea.

A Review of the Legacies associated with a Sudden Change in North Korea (PDF)
Shin Beomchul reviews legal issues surrounding regime collapse and reunification. Regime breakdown and reunification pose challenges in light of international law and South Korean domestic law. The latter especially could be problematic as South Korea will have to determine how to integrate the civil, criminal, and public legal codes of the two countries, and could also have to draft and enact a new constitution.

The Economic Impacts of a North Korean Collapse (PDF)
Deok Ryong Yoon considers the economic consequences of regime collapse. Regime collapse followed by rapid reunification could shock South Korea’s economy in the short term, producing a capital outflow, devaluation of the won, and asset market crashes. Over the longer term, South Korea will have to manage the unification of labor markets and currencies, and will have to cope with the potentially steep administrative costs of national reunification.

Here is a link to the Ilmin International Relations Institute (IIRI) which produced the papers.


2 Responses to “MacArthur Foundation working papers on DPRK collapse”

  1. Thanks too for these, Curtis. But MacArthur’s onward link to the Ilmin Institute at Korea University, which produced these, seems not to work ???