North Korean Economy Watch

From the BBC: 

The Japanese government is stepping up pressure on the DPRK by introducing legislation to impose formal economic sanctions.

North Korea has admitted kidnapping 13 Japanese citizens in the 1970s and ’80s to train its spies. Five have been allowed to return. Japan has demanded proof of what happened to the others. It is sceptical about North Korea’s insistence that they are dead. It also believes more of its citizens may still be held by the government there.

Pyongyang and Tokyo have no diplomatic ties, but there is some trade between the two countries. (Chongryun)

This new bill would require the government to impose sanctions on North Korea unless it gets the answers it wants.  The punishments would include a ban on the docking of North Korean ships at Japanese ports, and stopping private individuals in Japan from sending money to Pyongyang.

Two years ago Japan passed a law setting out a range of similar measures that could be imposed. The new legislation is designed to strengthen that policy.  Japan has up to now stopped short of imposing sanctions, preferring instead to pursue the matter through occasional talks, but there has been little progress.

Pyongyang has always said any imposition of economic sanctions would be regarded as an act of war.

Korea Times
4/27/2006

South Korea’s state-run resources development corporation on Thursday announced the opening of a joint graphite mine in North Korea.

The 50-50 joint venture between the Korea Resources Corp.(KORES) and a North Korean firm can produce 3,000 tons of graphite per year.

Of that, South Korea will import 1,830 tons every year for the next 15 years. This amount is equivalent to 20 percent of the South’s domestic demand.

The corporation has invested $10.2 million into the mine in Chongchon, South Hwanghae Province. It is estimated to hold 6.25 million tons of graphite.

Graphite from the mine can be used in batteries, brake-lining for cars and flame-proof or heat-resistant materials. The first batch of graphite is to arrive in South Korea in the second half of the year.

The joint development pact was signed in March 2003 with a formal deal signed four months later. South Korea transferred mining materials and other equipment to the mine in early 2004 and development got underway shortly afterwards.

From Yonhap:

According to an analysis by Peter Hayes, professor at Nautilus Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology, North Korea would need to double its imports and production to sustain combat.  “Based on our estimates of fuel use during exercises, fuel use by DPRK military for 30 days of full-time combat would be up to 200,000 tonnes,” the study said.

The fuel use figure is based on a wartime scenario in which 50 percent of ground force equipment would be inoperable by the end of 30 days, aircraft cease operations in 24 hours, and 90 percent of naval forces cease operation in five days.

The study predicted it would take four more months to restock military fuels given North Korea’s current supply rate, either by bringing in fuel stored in rear areas or from refining new fuel and then moving it into combat zones.

Even if all the available refineries operate at 100 percent capacity and all supplies are diverted solely to the military, it would still take two months or longer to restock, Hayes said.

North Korea’s military accounted for 8 percent of the country’s total energy demand in 2000, up from 4.2 percent in 1990. In terms of the types of energy used by the military, 66 percent was coal, 37 percent was oil products, and 8 percent was electricity.

In 1990, the military used 17.1 percent of the country’s total refined oil products, 3.9 percent of the coal and 8.1 percent of the electricity.

The study reaffirms the North’s economy is stagnating from an energy shortage, compounded by a drop in oil imports, a decline in coal exports, the flooding of key coal mines and damage to major hydro facilities.

There should be international assistance to stimulate and sustain North Korea’s energy sector and rehabilitate its decaying power grid, estimated to cost between US$5.5 billion and $7.5 billion, according to the study.

Progress can also be made by reducing vast waste of supplied energy, caused by equipment dating as far back as the 1940s and less than 50-percent-efficient coal-fired boilers, Hayes said.

According to the Nautilus Institute’s web site [Link broken since posing]:

“Under the direction of central authorities, foreign currency management groups are rapidly being moved into Sinuiju, while ordinary residents are being relocated to other regions only to be replaced by residents of Pyongyang and other areas who are in the process of moving in.”

The Sinuiju Special Administrative Region (SAR) project lost momentum in September 2002 when its first governor-to-be, Chinese-born Dutch businessman Yang Bin, was arrested in China. North Korean leader Kim Jong Il’s visit to China at the beginning of this year, however, appears to have triggered a turnaround. With Kim’s China trip focused on the revision of economic policies, the rejuvenation of Sinuiju SAR development plans came into the spotlight.

Most South Korean press have run pieces, based on the stories of North Korean defectors and Chinese residents in Dandoong and other border areas, alluding to the fact that there is change in the air around Sinuiju. A North Korean businessman in Dandoong was quoted as saying, “No official word has come down from central [authorities], but they are busy preparing the Sinuiju SAR,” while rumors are spreading among area residents that “Sinuiju is the next Hong Kong.”

The most reluctant promoters are the People’s Committee and regional administrative organs. As orders come down, some administrators are required to immediately pack and relocate to southern Sinuiju, an underdeveloped area not even comparable to Sinuiju proper. Authorities had chosen the site as far back as 1986, and while development was fully promoted, only factories were built up. Housing, roads, and other indirect social capital facilities are still lacking. While regional authorities may have decided to build up southern Sinuiju, it will take another ten years of hard work to do so.

On the other hand, the outlook for city authorities is considerably brighter. This is because in the future, they will have the opportunity to rise up though organizations run by special administrative businesses. Up until now, instructions have come through the Regional People’s Committee, security bureau and defense authorities, but even though they own the facilities, they can still receive orders directly from the central government. Because of this, regional officials are still influenced by the temperament of local and central party politics while being faced with increasing pressure from city authorities to transfer power to them. While some factories — like the Sinuiju Cosmetics Factory, Sinuiju Shoe Factory, Sinuiju Synthetic Fiber Plant, and other large factories — are preparing for foreign capital support and cooperative ventures, most administrators appear to be pushing for keeping the status quo.

There are still many concerns. As the SAR is being set up, central officials are being dispatched to fill roles as factory officials; central officials without any personal interest. A similar sort of dispatch of central officials took place in the Rajin-Sonbong Special Economic Zone in the past.

Most small- and medium-sized enterprises and regional factories are beginning to transform into trading companies. There are currently around one hundred fifty such trading offices in Sinuiju. In the future, if Sinuiju is officially designated as a SAR, it appears that a great many more trade offices will appear.

Other news from Sinuiju insiders is that the People’s Committee, People’s Security Force, National Security and Defense Bureau and other central government departments that have received Kim Jong Il’s permission to trade have already opened offices in Sinuiju, employing people in the area and busily seeking out people with connections in China in order to find trading partners.

It appears by looking at the relocation currently underway that the goal is to move residents within the same timeframe that was required for the first round of relocations in 2002, when residents were moved to Chunma, Kwaksan, Dongrim and other areas around the outskirts of Sinuiju. There are problems here as well, as the government wants to relocate residents from Pyongyang and other regions to Sinuiju. At issue is the fact that while the number of residents who can move in needs to equal the number relocated out of the area, some North Koreans have already used connections with the central and regional party affiliates in order to move to the region.

In addition, the housing market is active, with housing prices in central downtown areas having already skyrocketed. While officially owned by the state, dwellings are unofficially “sold” through the use of “modification fees”: apartments run from 25 to 30 million won (8 to 10 thousand USD), while two-three story condominiums in “Chinatown” in the Namsang district run in the tens of thousands of dollars.

However, complications have arisen. Many residents being moved out have decided to get rid of their houses, but this has proved more difficult than expected. Some have put up their house for sale but have been unable to find a buyer. There are also those who were caught in the midst of sales through “real estate offices” when a crackdown by authorities resulted in their expulsion. A source stated that the administrative authority of the city security bureau in charge of relocating residents is undermanned and takes different measures to direct different groups of residents, while pressing for the expulsion of what it deems as “lesser” or unemployed people.

According to Yonhap:

The number of North Korean workers at a South Korean-run industrial complex in the North Korean border city of Kaesong rose 22 percent every month over the past one and a half years, the South’s Unification Ministry said Wednesday.  Production increased 36 percent every month due largely to a rise in the number of South Korean factories operating in the complex, according to the ministry.

As of Friday, a total of 6,859 North Korean workers, including 1,047 construction workers, were registered at the complex.

South Korea hopes to promote the Kaesong complex as a role model for inter-Korean economic partnership, while officials in Washington express concern over its possible negative impact on the multilateral efforts to end North Korea’s nuclear weapons program.

The US Secret Service, which is part of the Treasury Department, has the responsibility to track down counterfit US currency, and becuase of a quirk of history, also protects the President of the USA.

According to Yonhap, the Secret Service has collected up to $50 million of “supernotes,” first discovered sixteen years ago and believed to come from North Korea….

But the latest trend shows the communist regime depends heavily on counterfeiting cigarettes for major income, smuggling at least one 40-foot container every month into the U.S., they said.

Testifying before the Senate in the first Congressional hearing on Pyongyang’s illicit financial activities, Michael Merritt, deputy assistant director of the U.S. Secret Service, gave statistics gathered from a global investigation.

There were more than 170 arrests involving more than 130 countries since the supernote was first detected in 1989 by a Central Bank cash handler in the Philippines, he said.

“Our investigation has revealed that the supernote continues to be produced and distributed from sources operating out of North Korea,” he said.

“These new versions show corrections or improvements in the flaws which are used by banking and law enforcement to detect them,” he said.

“A major source of income to the regime and its leadership, we believe, is the counterfeiting of cigarettes,” he said.

The U.S. government is seeking $5 million in criminal forfeitures in several of these indictments, according to the official.

I was told on my last visit to the DPRK that Marlboro Reds were popular in the DPRK and many astute smokers could taste the difference between the American and European versions–and prefered the American product. 

According to Yonhap, the US State Department has reported to the US Senate (who controls its funding) that it does not have “sufficient information to designate North Korean individuals or organizations under the Kingpin Act, a legislation that denies foreign drug traffickers access to American financial institutions.”

According to the Article:

Peter Prahar, a director at the [State] [D]epartment’s bureau for international narcotics and law enforcement, told a Senate hearing that the U.S. does not yet have sufficient information to designate North Korean individuals or organizations under the Kingpin Act, a legislation that denies foreign drug traffickers access to American financial institutions.

He said indictments are unlikely at this point, since they require “a certain level of evidence that I don’t believe exists,” he said.

Asked if North Korea might be put on the major drug trafficker nation list, Prahar said it is something his department considers “on a regular basis.”  But he cited inability to confirm reports of massive opium cultivation in North Korea, or find evidence that the country’s drug transiting is impacting the U.S.

“But this is something…that we consider regularly within the Department of State, and if we have information that will substantiate that finding, that is a recommendation we are going to make,” Prahar said.

Kim Seong-min, a former North Korean director, claimed it is certain that Pyongyang continues to produce opium.  “Youngsters are used to collect extract from opium,” he told the hearing.  As much as 70 percent of three North Korean counties are set aside to cultivate poppy seeds, totaling some 30,000 hectares, he claimed.

Prahar also stressed alarm at North Korea’s counterfeiting of pharmaceuticals which is “still sketchy” so its magnitude cannot be measured.

North Korea is promoting energy efficient light bulbs!

From UPI:

North Korean television has aired a program highlighting the benefits of energy-saving light bulbs.  Earlier this month, Korean Central Television showed a six-minute segment titled “Compact Light and Our Life” as part of the “Science and Technology Commonsense” program.

During the show, the announcer spoke of the benefits of energy-saving bulbs and told the audience that “compact light saves a lot more energy compared with normal white glow lamp or fluorescent lamp … compact lamps last longer than white glow lamps or fluorescent lamps.”

In interviews for the program, Yu Yong-hi, chief member of the Ministry of Power and Coal Industries, and Kim Kwang-il, of the Power and Remote Control Institute, spoke highly of the benefits of energy-saving bulbs, and explained how to use them most efficiently and safely.

A video still read: “Electricity saving, about 80 per cent compared with 100watt white glow lamp, about 50 per cent compared with 40W fluorescent lamp.”

Encouraging North Koreans to use energy-saving light bulbs, the program ended with a testimonial to the contribution made by energy-saving bulbs to the cultural lives of the North Korean people.

From the Korea Times:

A delegation from the South Korean Catholic Church left for Pyongyang early Wednesday to tour regions in the North it has provided with humanitarian assistance, the Archdiocese of Seoul said.

The 61-member delegation from the Seoul archdiocese, led by Monsignor Choi Chang-hwa, will take field trips in and around Pyongyang until Saturday, it said.

“This is the first time a Catholic delegation has traveled to North Korea on such a large scale, and with laymen included,” Ma Young-ju, an archdiocese’s public relations official said.

Pyongyang sent an Air Koryo plane to Incheon International Airport to pick up the delegation, Ma said.

The Seoul archdiocese has provided food and equipment worth 11 billion won ($11.6 million) since it started assisting in the midst of a deepening food shortage in the North in 1995.

It helps operate flour factories in Nampo and Shinchon on the North’s west coast and provides 1,200 tons of flour annually, according to the archdiocese.

According to the Manilla Times and ABS/CBN Interactive:

North Korea could suspend food rations for ordinary citizens in Pyongyang next month due to its worsening famine, a South Korean aid group warned Sunday.   The North Korean capital has had a better food supply than other areas despite a chronic food shortage since the 1990s.

“Pyongyang is no longer a safe zone in food supply,” Good Friends, a Seoul-based aid group for North Koreans, said in a newsletter.  “Food supply officials in Pyongyang say food rations lasted only 10 days in April and will be suspended for ordinary citizens beginning in May,” the group said. The aid group said big businesses and state organizations would remain unaffected.

United Nations food aid to North Korea ended late last year after Pyongyang said it no longer needed emergency shipments from the World Food Program (WFP) and other international humanitarian agencies. The North Korean government said it instead wants development assistance and a smaller operation with fewer international staff whose monitoring activities would be restricted.

WFP has proposed a downsized aid plan to feed 1.9 million people, largely women and children vulnerable to malnutrition and disease. It used to feed 6.5 million people.

North Korea’s grain production rose 5.3 percent to 4.54 million tons last year, still far short of its annual demand of six million tons, South Korea’s unification ministry report says.

According to the Daily NK:

North Korean sources have claimed that since April only some areas of Pyongyang have gotten food rations, and local areas were already cut off. North Korea recently relaunched rationing on the Workers’ Party Foundation Day (10/10/2005), yet from the beginning, the program did not meet its objectives, and furthermore, from this spring even Pyongyang is seeing a shortage of food.

Mr. Kim, who is a North Korean trader and now stays in Dandong, China said, “Officials working at the central agencies (the Party, Ministries, Court) in Pyongyang have gotten rations, but workers in general factories and small companies in local cities have to resolve their April and June food prooblmes themselves.”

Mr. Kim stated, “Despite a severe shortage of food, some wealthy, powerful people are persisting well. Yet other people who rely on the food rationing of factories mainly go to local areas to exchange goods for food.” It led to a situation where North Koreans have to withstand starvation by all means, before new potatoes come out.

At the same time, price of rice at the Jangmadang 9farmers markets) began rising.

Rice prices at the Shinuiju Jangmadang are:

1,000W ($0.33) to 1,200W($0.4) per 1kg
Yongcheon rice  is 1,200W 1kg
Chinese rice is 900W($0.3) to 930W($0.31) per 1kg

Corn is 300W($0.1) to 400W($0.133).

Shinuiju rice is a little more expensive than that of other cities, and its wheat flour is cheaper. It is because rice comes in from other cities, and Chinese wheat flour is distributed to each city via Shinuiju. 

Mr. Lee hinted that travel permits to China are issued “conditionally.” That is, after visitors to China come back to North Korea, they have to offer some food to the National Security Agency, and people with no relatives have a harder time getting passes.

Mr. Lee said, “As for me, it is better because I found my older brother. However, other people living in our village go out to rivers to dig for gold and to mountains to dig for edible plants.”

March and April, called the ‘Barley Period (Borigogae)’ are the months when food crunches are most severe. This is when the crops and edible plants (side dishes) harvested last year begin to run out. When edible plants run out, North Koreans prolong their lives by eating grass or wild plants. However, because of death by starvation in the mid 90’s, which resulted in massive foraging, even wild plants like bracken are not easily found now.