North Korean Economy Watch

Yonhap
12/5/2007

A convoy of 10 South Korean buses drove into North Korea Wednesday across the heavily armed border to visit the city of Kaesong, launching a second tourism project between the two Koreas, said the South Korean company that developed the tour.

The one-day overland tour of Kaesong, a 90-minute drive from Seoul, offers ordinary South Koreans an unusual glimpse of North Korea, one of the world’s most isolated nations, said officials at Hyundai Asan, the company that offers the tour.

It is the second tourism project between the two Koreas by Hyundai Asan, a unit of the South Korean Hyundai conglomerate in charge of most business projects involving the North. Nine years ago it began a tour program to the North’s east coast mountain of Geumgang.

So far, the mountain resort has attracted some 1.5 million tourists, mostly South Koreans. North Korea receives US$50 for every $300 trip to the mountains.

Price of the one-day tour of Kaesong is 180,000 won ($195) per tourist with North Korea keeping $100 for each person, Hyundai Asan said.

Among the first batch of 360 tourists to Kaesong were 87-year-old Kim Yoon-kyung and four-year-old Shim Joo-eun, the South Korean company said.

They left Seoul at around 6:00 a.m. and are scheduled to return around 5:00 p.m., an official at Hyundai Asan said.

The tour of Kaesong offers visits to historical Buddhist temples, scenic waterfalls and other legacies of the city, which was the capital of the Koryo Dynasty that ruled the peninsula between A.D. 918 and 1392, the company said.

Kaesong is also the site of an inter-Korean industrial complex with some 26 South Korean companies manufacturing clothes and kitchenware there.

For years South Korea has been engaging in economic cooperation with North Korea as part of its effort to bridge the economic gap with its impoverished neighbor and prepare for reunification. South Korea’s economy is 35 times bigger than the North’s.

The effort is gaining momentum as North Korea has started disabling its nuclear weapons program and its relationship with the U.S. is improving.

Christopher Hill, the chief U.S. negotiator in international talks aimed at persuading North Korea to dismantle its nuclear program, is on a three-day visit to the North’s nuclear complex in Yongbyon, which produces weapons-grade plutonium, to check the progress of the disablement of the North’s nuclear facilities.

At the same time, the deputy prime ministers of the two Koreas are in a three-day meeting in Seoul to discuss a wide range of economic cooperation projects that South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun and North Korean leader Kim Jong-il agreed to during their summit in October.

International Crisis Group
Asia Briefing N°71
4 December 2007

North Korea’s relations with Russia have been marked by unrealistic expectations and frequent disappointments but common interests have prevented a rupture. The neighbours’ history as dissatisfied allies goes back to the founding of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) with Soviet support and the Red Army’s installation of Kim Il-sung as leader. However, the Soviets were soon written out of the North’s official ideology. The Sino-Soviet split established a pattern of Kim playing Russian and Chinese leaders off against each other to extract concessions, including the nuclear equipment and technology at the heart of the current crisis. Since Vladimir Putin visited Pyongyang in 2000, diplomatic initiatives have come undone and grandiose economic projects have faltered. Russia is arguably the least effective participant in the six-party nuclear talks.

The relationship between Putin’s Russia and Kim Jong-il’s North Korea has disappointed both sides. Putin has mostly been unable to assert himself as a prominent player in North East Asia, and North Korea has received neither the unalloyed political support nor the economic backing it seeks. Russia has more influence in the region than it did in the 1990s but not enough to change the equation on the Korean peninsula. Opportunities for economic cooperation have been limited, mostly by Pyongyang’s refusal to open its economy but also by Russia’s fixation on overly ambitious schemes that at best may take decades to realise. China’s more nimble investors have moved in much faster than Russia’s state-owned behemoths.

Moscow has been conservative in its political dealings with Pyongyang, playing a minor but thus far positive role at the six-party talks consistent with its concerns about proliferation and the risks of DPRK collapse. It regards the denuclearisation of the peninsula as in its interests, has relatively few commercial opportunities in the North and considers its relations with the other nations in the exercise more important in every way than its ties to Pyongyang.

While Russia has shown interest in building energy and transport links through the North, little progress has been made. Rebuilding railways on the peninsula will cost enormous sums, and overcoming the many obstacles will require years of negotiation. Investments have been hindered by the North’s unreliability and history of default on loans. Russia may eventually have to forgive billions of dollars of debt the North cannot repay. Energy is a major mutual interest but pipelines across the North are unlikely to be built soon; Japan and China are expected to be the main markets for Russian energy, while South Korea is reluctant to become dependent on the North for its supply. 

Pyongyang wants Russia to balance China’s growing influence but appears to recognise that Moscow will never provide the level of support it once did. The North has been keen to discuss economic cooperation but has lacked the political will to reform its economy sufficiently for foreign investment, even from a country as inured to corruption and government interference as Russia. It is equally interested in technical and scientific aid. Russian technology, equipment, and “know-how” have featured prominently in the history of both Koreas, and Pyongyang still seeks to resolve its economic problems by scientific and technical solutions. But there is unlikely to be much growth in bilateral cooperation unless the nuclear crisis is resolved peacefully, and the North opens its economy. 

This briefing completes Crisis Group’s series on the relationships between North Korea and those of its neighbours – China, South Korea, Japan and Russia – involved in the six-party nuclear talks. It examines Russia’s aims and ambitions in the region, as well as the responses from North Korea and is based on both interviews in Russia, Central Asia and South Korea and analysis of Russian and North Korean statements.

Asia Times
Ting-I Tsai
12/5/2007

The likelihood that North Korea’s nuclear disarmament will be completed just a year after Pyongyang announced that it had tested a nuclear bomb has been widely welcomed around the world, with the exception, perhaps, of China.

There are increasing concerns among Chinese academics that Pyongyang’s actions are hurting Chinese interests. Last October’s nuclear test not only unmasked the contradictions of a relationship frequently described as being “as close as lips and teeth”. It may have led to a further downturn in bilateral ties.

As the host nation of the Six Party Talks and once North Korea’s closest ally, China has reacted to the prospects for disarmament in a decidedly cool manner, with its North Korea experts debating how Pyongyang will harm China’s interests.

“There is no doubt that Pyongyang will create conflicts between China and the United States once it improves its relationship with Washington,” said Zhang Liangui, professor of international strategic research at the Central Party School in Beijing. He predicted that it was only a matter of time before Pyongyang took revenge on Beijing for China’s vote to impose sanctions on North Korea at the United Nations last October.

Zhang Yushan, researcher at the Jilin Academy of Social Sciences, however, doubts that North Korea could develop a close relationship with the US in the upcoming months.

After a year of dialog, North Korea agreed in October to shut its main nuclear reactor and provide detailed descriptions of all its nuclear programs by the end of the year. Furthermore, it has pledged not to transfer nuclear materials, technology or knowledge to other countries. Pyongyang fulfilled one of those promises in July by shutting down the reactor in Yongbyon. It has yet to make any substantial moves toward providing a description of its nuclear programs.

Chinese academics who question whether North Korea’s pledges to completely abandon its nuclear program are sincere also worry about Washington’s lack of determination to shape a nuclear-free Korean Peninsula after having received Pyongyang’s assurance that it would not transfer nuclear materials, technology or knowledge to other countries.

“China has always seen North Korea’s nuclear weapon issue as the Americans’ problem and has never adopted any strategic plan for itself in the Six Party Talks, which have led to where we are now,” said Jin Linbo, a research professor at the Beijing-based China Institute of International Studies. Jin argued that Beijing might have gained nothing but a security threat from its neighbor by hosting the talks.

What has particularly frustrated Beijing has been North Korea’s selfish neglect of China’s interests. The Central Party School’s Zhang noted that the latest developments have led some Chinese academics who originally had sympathies for North Korea to change their attitudes.

“Some of them have started to argue that North Korea is outrageous,” Zhang said.

Scoot Snyder, senior associate at the Washington based Asia Foundation, noted that North Korea’s traditional strategy is to play larger parties against each other; having found their country over-reliant on China for critical inputs, North Korean leaders would certainly like to stimulate a competition between China and the United States and South Korea to see who can most effectively win influence in Pyongyang. He pointed out in particular that DPRK negotiator Kim Kye-gwan’s public criticism of the United States for relying too much on China to carry out its Korea policy, US negotiator Christopher Hill’s sudden visit to Pyongyang without passing through Beijing, and the “three- or four-party” phrase in the inter-Korean summit declaration had all caused speculation and concern in Beijing.

In a study titled, “How North Korea threatens China’s interests“, conducted by Gregory Moore, assistant professor of political science at the St. Petersburg, Florida-based Eckerd College, the start of the decline in PRC–DPRK amity coincided quite closely with the rise of Kim Jong-Il in the late 1980s and the early 1990s. It was sealed with the passing of Kim Il-Sung in 1994, and contact between Beijing and Pyongyang broke down almost completely between 1994 and 1999.

Kim Jung-il, Moore suggested in his study, revealed his willingness to affront China in 1990-91 by conducting a dialog with China’s rival Taiwan and making a deal in which Pyongyang would have been paid to accept Taiwan’s nuclear waste. He played the same “Taipei card” again in 1996 when Beijing offered one-tenth of the grain that Pyongyang had asked for. In 1997, North Korea again opened discussions with Taiwan on direct flights between the island’s capital of Taipei and Pyongyang after another quarrel with China. At the time, Chinese agricultural experts publicly encouraged Pyongyang to adopt Chinese-style reforms, which led Pyongyang to call Deng Xiaoping a traitor to socialism. That jibe prompted Beijing to mull cutting off food aid to North Korea.

Other factors have also caused the relationship to sour. North Korea’s admission to US diplomat James Kelly in October 2002 that it was indeed pursuing a uranium enrichment program, its plan to establish the free trade zone and gambling city of Sinuiju, its counterfeiting of US$100 bills and Chinese currency, and China’s cutting off of an oil pipeline and deploying troops to the border in 2003 have all caused friction. In addition, rumors have surfaced that Pyongyang’s Chinese-built Taen Friendship Glass Factory resulted from Kim Jung-il’s flirtation with the “Taipei card”.

According to a Pyongyang-based foreign diplomat, bilateral relations “are mainly close in commercial and economic matters, especially with neighboring Liaoning province” in China. Bilateral trade in the first three quarters of 2007 reached US$1.44 billion, representing 16.6 growth year-on-year. The Chinese are reportedly operating three major coal mining sites in North Korea, although related government agencies in Pyongyang have denied this.

It remains to be seen how Pyongyang will handle its relationship with China. But both governments have made efforts to demonstrate their friendship.

On November 26, Liu Xiaoming, China’s ambassador to the DPRK, delivered a speech to students at Kim Il-sung University in Pyongyang, sharing the success of the Chinese Communist Party’s 17th congress, the significant accomplishments of its 29-year-long period of liberalization and reform, and China’s appreciation of its historical friendship with North Korea. The speech, which the embassy described as “a new page in the bilateral friendship”, came shortly after the visit of Liu Yunshan, member of the Secretariat of the Communist Party of China’s Central Committee and head of the Publicity Department of the CPC Central Committee, to Pyongyang on October 29. In July, Chinese Minister of Foreign Affairs Yang Jiechi made North Korea the first nation he visited after taking office.

In return, Pyongyang authorities issued a series of stamps featuring the 2008 Beijing Olympics in mid-November, and Kim Jung-il paid a visit to China’s embassy on the occasion of the Chinese lantern-festival holiday Yuan Xiao Jie.

In the eyes of South Korea, which has aggressively sought to improve its ties with the North, ties between China and North Korea remain unquestionably close.

Haksoon Paik, senior fellow at the Seoul-based Sejong Institute, argued that the US-PRC relationship is the key factor shaping East Asian international politics, and North Korea has simply “tried to just find some breathing space in between”.

Having dealt with North Koreans for more than a half-century, Chinese academics are now preparing for North Korea’s eventual tilt away from Beijing because of the landscape change in East Asian politics.

“For the upcoming decade, the relationships among the six-party-talk members will put the US, Japan and North Korea on one side, and China, South Korea and Russia on the other,” predicted a Chinese expert on North Korea, who spoke under the condition of anonymity.

Daily NK
Moon Sung Hwee
12/4/2007

An internal source conveyed on the 30th that due to an extreme decree which prohibits all sales of medical goods, the suffering of citizens has been increasing.

The source maintained that “In August, the sale of medical products was banned, and by the start of anti-socialism inspections in September, no medical products could be found in the jangmadang.”

The North Korean authorities have long since stated its position in prohibiting the sale of medical goods, saying that the sale of medical goods in the jangmadang is a show of democracy that undermines the national medical system. However, regulations usually never went beyond formalities.

Recently, however, anti-socialism inspections have been conducted on a large-scale in Yankang with the theme of “Abolishing capitalist trends in the market.” Medical products, which are mostly from China and South Korea, have been regulated more aggressively. Some have said that the authorities have strengthened regulations due to frequent incidences involving Chinese sub-standard medical products.”

With the harbinger of regulation of medical products, pharmaceutical vendors have sold medical products to their acquaintances on a limited basis. The price has increased significantly as well. Chinese-made aspirin, “Zhengtongbian”, which costs 20 North Korean won per pill, has hiked up to 30 won. A bottle of anti-diarrhea medicine has increased from 150 won to 300 won and penicillin from 120 to 200 won.

Especially the smuggling of Electrolyte Solution, used in IV’s to hydrate hospital patients, has stopped due to regulations, causing a jump in price.

From mid-August to the end of October, the anti-socialism inspections in Hyesan, Yankang were cooperatively conducted by the central Party, the Prosecutor’s Office, the National Security Agency and the People’s Safety Agency. Along with the strict regulation of cell phones, the market, and capitalist “corruption,” the medical goods ban has cast a heavy burden on the civilians.

“Good Friends” reported in October that “Thirty people have been incarcerated as a result of the anti-socialism inspections in Yankang since mid-August, and regulations have tightened.”

When the sale of medical products completely ceased in the markets, citizens and doctors who must treat their patients have been extremely disgruntled.

The source said, “People have to go to the homes of pharmacists in order to buy medicine, but they cannot if the pharmacists do not know them personally. The price has increased dramatically due to the regulations of medicinal products.”

“Even hospitals do not carry medicine and there is no way to procure them, even at doctors’ request.” Doctors have complained, saying “Are we supposed to just sit by and watch the sick people?”

A majority of medical products that could be found in the markets were Chinese-made contraband goods. In some cases, Party leaders or army hospital leaders have illegally procured medicine as well.

The source commented that when civilian discontent rose, the Party Municipal Committee explained the cause of the cease in sale of medical goods as, “In a socialist society, hospitals have guaranteed medical goods, but during this temporary time of suffering, some immoral people have hoarded the national medical supply and are making a profit.”

Korea Times
Jung Sung-ki
12/4/2007

Kim Chang-soon, director of the Institute for North Korea Studies in Seoul, died of a chronic illness Tuesday. He was 86.

Kim, a former North Korean journalist, has been recognized as the “pioneer” of North Korean studies in South Korea.

Born in Uiju, North Pyeongan Province, he was a journalist in the North before he fled the country about six months into the three-year Korean War in 1950.

Kim was a senior editorial writer for the communist regime’s newspaper, Minju Chosun, and had been once granted the rare opportunity of interviewing the late North Korean leader Kim Il-sung.

He said he learned first hand the “deceptive nature” of North Korea’s communism when he was imprisoned on charges of “anti-revolutionary” crimes in 1949.

In the early 1970s, Kim became the chief director of the private North Korean think tank in the South after spending several years with the now-defunct Naewoe Affairs Research Institute run by the Seoul government.

The area of North Korea studies was almost like a “barren land” in South Korea before Kim devoted himself to it as the head of the state-funded institute in 1962.

In an interview with Japan’s Kyodo News in the early 2000s, Kim said his hardships and inhumane treatment in North Korean prisons were almost “beyond description” and it made him become an incisive critic of North Korean communism and its followers.

He is survived by his wife, Jin Yong-joo, and two daughters.

A funeral service will be held at the Asan Medical Center in southern Seoul. His body will be buried at the Tongil Park in Paju near the inter-Korean border today. For more information, call 02-3010-2294.

Daily NK
Yoon Il Geun
12/3/2007

An inside source told the Daily NK recently that about 20 to 30% of business agents in Pyongyang are university students.

Since the late 90s, college students started working as agents between artifacts buyers and sellers.

Pyongyang middlemen usually connect local merchants in border area and retailers in Pyongyang. Besides trading foreign goods, they also took part in artifact business around Kaesung, which was the capital of Koryo dynasty from 10th century to late 14th, and thus full of ancient artifacts.

College students lack funds, so their only way to earn money is to be agent.

The insider said “Pyongyang’s college students are the smartest and known for their business skills. Among them, students from Kim Chaek University of Technology are best. It is reasonable to assume at least two out of ten students have become working as trading agents since the March of Tribulation in 1990s.”

“Students are perceived as trustworthy because they are from middle class families. And those who are from local provinces and studying in Pyongyang have advantages.”

Most of these business-practicing students are former army veterans, especially those who are interested in earning money rather than studying. A few poor students who have not enlisted do business.

According to the source, these students rarely attend classes and bribe school college administrators in order to graduate. During “farming supporting period” every spring and autumn (every college student is mandatory to work at farms twice a year), business-students are exempt while buying food for those who participate.

A defector from Pyongyang said “There is little to learn at universities and society is changed to capitalist, so there is no shame for doing business among college students. The other reason might be influx of army veterans into colleges.”

Daily NK
Jung Kwon Ho
12/3/2007

The North Korean authorities are intensifying efforts to crack down corruption and embezzlement prevalent among party cadres.

Lim Sang Il (pseudonym, 43), a native of Pyongyang, said, “The state excommunicated and dismissed both the chief secretary of the Party in the Daedonggang district and the head of the foreign currency-making activity organization. They were found to have embezzled money earned from cocoon business for the past ten years.” Mr. Lim, currently staying in Dangdong, China visiting relatives, said, “Words are circulating around that they extorted over 10 million dollars.”

Mr. Lim said, “The factory manager of the Sangwon Cement Complex located near Pyongyang took his life when he heard the news that he was suspected of corruption and the state inspection group against anti-socialist trends was about to come down to see him for inspection.”

“This manager was notorious for corruption. For years, he had extorted money from the factory and used it for his own use,” Mr. Lim said. “It was widely gossiped that this man killed himself because he knew that his would receive capital punishment considering the severity of his corruption.”

A source from Sinuiju in North Pyongan said in a phone conversation with DailyNK on the 28th of November, “The chief secretary of the local Party in Woonjeon, North Pyongan Province, was expulsed from the party and fired from his job after he was found to have extorted money allocated for public construction works.”

“There are constructions going on in Woonjeon, tearing down old houses and building new ones,” the source said, “However, no one has ever asked people’s permission for constructions in the first place and provided temporary housing for people until the completion of construction works, and that, of course, angered many people.”

“All of a sudden, those without money ended up being homeless whereas those with money became able to purchase two to three houses at affordable price,” said the source.

“Expressing their anger aggregated over time, the local people led by the old directly sent a written protest to the central Party and filed a complaint,” the source said. “After all, the inspection group had to come down to Woonjeun and dismissed the chief secretary of the local Party and head prosecutor.”

“The inspection group discovered that these men were hiding a significant amount of money in their houses,” the source said. “It was so much that the inspectors couldn’t count the money and had to weigh stacks of bills in the scales.”

“Conspiring with the construction manager, the chief secretary accumulated money by overpricing construction materials and selling newly constructed houses,” said the source. “The head prosecutor accepted huge bribe on condition that he should turn down pouring complaints and contesting reports from the locals.”

In regard to the recent incident where some machinery from the Suncheon Vinylon Complex was smuggled to China, the state has dismissed many high-ranking officials implicated in the smuggling such as the chief secretary of South Pyongan Province, the chief secretary of the local Party in Suncheon, the city’s public prosecutor, and director of safety agency and foreign-currency making organization of the city.

Daily NK
Kwon Jeong Hyun
12/3/2007

The North Korean authorities have toughened their regulation of the market.

An inside North Korean source relayed that “After releasing the policy of market regulations, the inspections of the railway police have become more extreme. They carelessly go through the citizens’ bags or even search women’s undergarments.”

The North Korean authorities have strengthened market regulations, such as prohibiting goods that can be sold in the market or fixing prices.

Also, they have adjusted the minimum age of women who can sell in the jangmadang (markets) to 45 from 35 years. If women who are under 45 sell in the market or sell prohibited goods, the safety agents in charge or the managers of the jangmadang confiscate the products by force or charge fines.

The source commented, “The security agents search their bodies because merchants hide cosmetics, medicine, or precious metals in thick clothing. After the decree from the authorities, the safety agents have come forward for aggressive regulations.”

The regulation of the market has spread to long-distance merchants who use rails. If young women are carrying a lot of possessions in trains, the safety agents steal the goods by force and search their bags without discretion.

Pyongyang has also made public announcements to prohibit women under 49 from trading at the market starting December 1st. Currently, women under 39 are prohibited. Further, they are only allowed to sell at permitted locations in the market.

North Korean rail safety agents ride in every car of North Korea’s rails. The basic duties of rail safety agents consist of checking travel certificate and citizen cards and regulating suspicious passengers, including crimes of theft. On top of this, their authority to inspect women who are engaging in long-distance trade has increased.

The rail safety agents force passengers who carry large loads suspected of being goods for sale to come to the inspection car. The safety agents search the luggage and make threats, such as reporting them. Recently, after the prohibition of sales by women under 45, if the owner of the luggage is a woman under 45, she been threatened to be reported. Long-distance merchants can only claim their goods if they give bribes such as cigarettes or cash to the rail security officer.

The source stated, “After the market regulation, the amount of bribes to the rail safety agent has risen. Due to this decree, the safety agents become well-off.”

Also, with the increase in new regulation authority by the rail safety agents, the phenomenon of sexually harassing young women who engage in long-distance trade or requesting wrongful sexual relations has been taking place.

The agents take the women to regulation cars by saying, “We have to investigate whether or not you are engaging in gold trade,” and force them to remove their undergarments under the pretext of investigations and engage in illicit conduct. If the women protest, their luggage is confiscated or their citizen cards and travel certificates are handed over to the discretion of the local safety agency office at the train station and the woman is forcibly removed from the train.”

The source said, “In North Korea, there are no laws regarding human rights and the consciousness of average civilians regarding human rights is very low, so recent occurrences which have been frequent can give rise to societal issues.” He also noted, “As a result of the recent market regulation decree, the tyrannies of safety agents and party leaders have become worse and the situation of indiscriminate human rights violations has become even more conspicuous.”

Yonhap
12/2/2007

The two Koreas have agreed on the daily schedule for a cross-border freight train that will resume service later this month for the first time in over 50 years, the South Korean Unification Ministry said on Sunday.

The prime ministers of South and North Korea met in Seoul last month and agreed to restart the railway service, which will traverse the heavily armed border, on Dec. 11. The train will run between the South’s Munsan station and the North’s Bongdong station as a follow-up to the October summit between their leaders in Pyongyang.

The ministry said a freight train will depart from Munsan at 9:00 a.m. each weekday and reach the North Korean border station of Panmun before returning to the South at 2:00 p.m.

The train, which will not operate during weekends, will extend its route to Bongdong once the construction of a cargo-handling facility there is completed, the ministry said. The Bongdong station serves as a gateway to an inter-Korean industrial park in Kaesong.

The soon-to-be-resumed service is expected to facilitate transportation of raw materials and manufactured goods between South Korea and the North’s Kaesong park, the ministry said.

The 19.8-km route between the two Koreas was severed in the midst of the 1950-53 Korean War and has since remained closed.

Yonhap
Nam Kwang-sik
12/2/2007

The first South Koreans to tie the knot in North Korea wed in a ceremony at Mount Geumgang, a scenic North Korean mountain frequented by South Korean tourists, tour company Hyundai Asan said on Sunday.

Choe Jeong-in, a 32-year-old employee of Hyundai Asan, and Cho Ah-ra, 24, who works for one of Hyundai Asan’s business partners, married in a ceremony at a Mount Geumgang hotel on Saturday, three years after they first met while working at the North Korean resort.