North Korean Economy Watch

This morning the International Herald Tribune published an interesting AP story on Air Koryo, North Korea’s state airline.

As has been mentioned before, Air Koryo recently began upgrading its fleet–but guess who will seemingly be on the first flight? 

The airline also has taken delivery of its first new jet in years. South Korea’s Yonhap news agency, quoting diplomatic sources in China, reported Thursday that North Korea’s reclusive leader Kim Jong Il was likely to fly to Vietnam and China on the new plane next week.

Kim is widely believed to shun air travel. His previous trips abroad by luxurious special train were shrouded in secrecy and reports speculating on his destinations beforehand were not always accurate.

And although the economy at large is not doing so well, Air Koryo business is brisk. 

“The golden days are now[.]  They’re busier than ever,” says Nick Bonner of Koryo Tours. (paragraph edited)

In 1998, his Koryo Tours — which despite being similarly named for an ancient Korean dynasty is unrelated to the airline — escorted just 98 tourists to North Korea. The number doubled to 200 in 2006 and last year jumped to a still minuscule 1,100. Some of his customers also get into the country by train, a much longer trip.

Bonner said a roundtrip ticket on Air Koryo between Beijing and Pyongyang costs 2,550 Chinese yuan (US$365; €230) for economy and 4,340 yuan (US$621; €390) for business class.

What are Air Koryo’s most recent routes:

Air Koryo now has just three regularly scheduled international routes. Domestic service is said to be virtually nonexistent.

It flies roundtrip three times a week between Pyongyang and Beijing and twice a week to the northeastern Chinese city of Shenyang, an important source of trade for North Korea.

The other is return service once a week to Vladivostok. A flight to Khabarovsk, another city in the Russian Far East, stopped in 2005. The airline also had flew to Bangkok and Macau in recent years.

About the fleet upgrade: 

Perhaps illustrative of Air Koryo’s improving fortunes, in December it acquired a twin-engine Tu-204-300 jet manufactured by Russia’s OAO Tupolev, adding to its fleet of other Tupolev, Antonov and Ilyushin jets and turboprops.

Tupolev mentions the deal on its Web site, though did not disclose financial terms when asked.

A non-North Korean with intimate knowledge of the airline, who refused to be identified, confirmed the deal, adding North Korean pilots were receiving training in Russia with the craft set to begin operations at the end of April.

Although the article insinuates that economics are largely behind the fleet upgrade, a little nudging by China certainly did not hurt.  China gave Air Koryo a deadline to meet Beijing safety standards.  But despite China’s concern for air safety, Air Koryo still has one of the best records in the business:

Though concerns about safety have been raised — Air Koryo is banned from flying in the European Union — the carrier has apparently had just one major accident, a crash in West Africa in 1983 when the airline was known under a different name.

The plane, an Ilyushin 62 carrying 23 people, was en route to Conakry, the capital of Guinea, on an “international non-scheduled passenger” flight, when it went down in the Fouta Djall mountains, according to the Aviation Safety Network Web site. All aboard perished.

Air Koryo made its first flight to South Korea in August of 2000 to ferry 100 separated family members for temporary reunions with long-lost relatives in the South. The airline has made occasional flights to South Korea for special purposes as relations have warmed in recent years.

The article does not mention the other (minor) mishap in 2006:

On August 15, 2006 aircraft from Air Koryo (Tupolev 154B-2) on an international scheduled passenger flight from Beijing, China (Beijing Capital Airport) to Pyongyang, North Korea (Sunan International Airport) experienced a runway mishap (exited runway) during landing rollout after landing in bad weather at Sunan International Airport. No injuries were reported and damage to plane was minor. (Wikipedia)

Read the full article here:
North Korea’s quirky Air Koryo survives and, increasingly, appears to thrive
International Herald Tribune (AP)
4/18/2008

Last August I posted an excerpt from Andrei Lankov’s book, North of the DMZ, on the preservation of Kim il Sung’s body in Kamsusan Memorial Palace.  This year, the Daily NK (here and here) provides some new information on Kim il Sung’s imposing presence on the North Korean landscape.

First some statistics:

1.  There are approximately 70 Kim il Sung statues in North Korea (large statues a la Mansu Hill in Pyongyang).

2.  There are approximately 30,000 plaster busts.

3.  There are approximately 140,000 monuments and memorials

4.  There is allegedly one Kim Jong il statue in Pyongyang (although the Daily NK is the only source I have ever heard make this claim). 

5.  The first Kim il Sung statue was at the Mangyongdae Revolutionary School on 10/24/1948.  The second was in front of the Changjeon School in 1949. The most recent is at Kim il Sung University in 1996. 

Apparently all of the statues are made of bronze, but are coated in a gold paint every two years to prevent them from corroding.  The gold paint is allegedly imported from Germany (Can any German readers/speakers find out which German company supplies the paint?  How much? And at what cost? ).   

All of the likenesses of the Great Leader are exclusively constructed by the Mansudae Art Studio’s “Number One Works Department”  in Pyongyang.  The workers in this group are tested annually by a deliberation committee so they can be certified to work on Kim statues, etc.  These individuals are the only ones legally allowed to reproduce the leader’s image in North Korea.

Once a Kim statue is completed, it is transported by numerous agencies (security, party, and artists) to its destination where it is erected.  Lamps are supposed to shine on the statues from 10:00pm until 4:00am.  Local citizens are charged with keeping the area around the statue tidy (which can be verified on Google Earth).  In the event of an emergency (such as a war), many statues allegedly have dedicated bunkers in which they can be stored.

UPDATE: Yonhap reports that the food shortage was also discussed at the cabinet meeting:

North Korea has recently convened a Cabinet meeting to discuss food shortages, China’s Xinhua News Agency said Sunday, as international concerns grow over the North’s economic woes.

The North’s Cabinet recently held an enlarged session and decided to address the chronic shortages of food and consumer goods, the news agency said, citing a recent edition of the cabinet daily Minju Joson.

DPRK budget expenditures grow 2.5% this year
Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
NK Brief No. 08-4-16-1
4/16/2008

On May 9, the sixth round of North Korea’s 11th Supreme People’s Assembly opened, at which this year’s budget expenditures were announced to be 2.5% greater than last year. It was also reported at the assembly that the Cabinet would pursue a new 5-year plan to develop the nation’s science and technology sector by 2012.

Despite officially holding a seat on the Assembly, General Secretary Kim Jong Il did not attend this year’s assembly meeting. In addition, there was no mention during the assembly of inter-Korean, U.S.-DPRK or other foreign relations.

Cabinet Deputy Prime Minister Roh Doo-chul announced this year’s budget, stating that “this year, in order to strengthen national defense, and while building strength, to decisively advance the people’s economy and existing industry as well as improve the lives of the people, the national budget expenditure plan will be expanded to 102.5% of last year.”

According to this statement, this year’s budget is estimated to be 451.5 trillion won (3.2 billion USD). An estimated 15.8%, or 71.3 billion won (510 million USD), is slated for national defense. Last year’s national defense budget was 15.7%, or 69.2 billion won (490 million USD), of the national budget.

North Korea has also decided to increase budget allocations for energy, coal, and metal industries as well as the railway sector by 49.8% as compared to 2007, and will focus investments on staple industries. In the past, the North had stressed the importance of the ‘four main sectors’ of improvement in the people’s economy, including energy, but this year the government will actually focus investment on these sectors.

Cabinet Prime Minister Kim Young-il stated, “From this year until 2012, we will proceed forward with a new 5-year plan for the development of national science and technology…As we systematically increase national investment in this sector, we will raise the sense of responsibility and the role of technicians and raise the level of science and technology development as quickly as possible.”

In 2012, North Korea will celebrate the 100th anniversary of the birth of national founder Kim Il-sung, and has set a goal of constructing an economically powerful nation by that year.

Read the Yonhap story here:
N.K. discusses food shortage in Cabinet meeting
Yonhap
4/20/2008

From Bloomberg: 

The country has a grain shortfall of 1.66 million metric tons this year, the United Nations agency said in a statement today, citing figures from the Food and Agriculture Organization. The shortfall was the highest since 2001, it said.

“It takes a third of a month’s salary just to buy a few days’ worth of rice,” Jean-Pierre de Margerie, the WFP’s country representative in North Korea, said in the statement. The situation is “not yet” on the scale of the 1990s famine but “yellow lights have to be flashed,” he added in an interview.

The Asian nation’s food deficit may exacerbate a global grain crisis that has driven prices of wheat and rice to records, stoking inflation and sparking civil unrest. International Monetary Fund Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn said April 12 that “hundreds of thousands” may starve worldwide.

Prices of staple foods in the North Korean capital have doubled over the past year following floods last August that reduced agricultural output, the WFP statement said. Last year’s harvest was a quarter less than that gathered in 2006, it said.

The WFP assists about 1.1 million North Koreans at present, while 6.5 million people suffer from “food insecurity,” it said. That “figure can be expected to rise if action is not taken,” the statement said.

Even in normal years North Korea has a deficit of 800,000 to 1 million tons of grain, de Margerie said in today’s interview.

The gap is greater this year because of the flooding and as external assistance has fallen since 2005, when North Korea declared that it could do without humanitarian aid, he said.

People will “resort to any means they can to cope” from growing food at home and trading in the country’s private markets to skipping meals, as many did for long periods in the mid-to-late 1990s leading to high malnutrition rates, de Margerie said.  (Bloomberg)

From Time (AP):

The North’s annual food deficit is expected to nearly double from 2007 to 1.83 million tons, according to U.N. projections.

Reflecting the situation, prices for key staples at food markets have also doubled to reach their highest level since 2004, the World Food Program said. Although the communist North provides some food rations to its people, those who can resort to markets to help make up for lacking state handouts.

The WFP also called on the North to allow aid groups to operate more freely in the country. Countries giving food distributed by the WFP require monitoring by aid workers to ensure that those most in need are being fed.  (Time )

Read the full articles here:
North Korea Faces Food Crisis, UN Agency Warns
Bloomberg
Bradley Martin
4/16/2008

UN: North Korea Faces Food Crisis
Time
Burt Herman
4/16/2008

The Daily NK is running a couple of interesting pieces on Kim il Sung monuments and statues in the DPRK.  Both articles are worth reading (here and here), and I will comment on them more extensively in the near future, but the first article made a startling claim that I had to put to NKeconWatch readers: That there is a Kim Jong il statue in Pyongyang.

In contrast to the many Kim Il Sung’s statues, there stands only one Kim Jong Il statue. This is located in on the lawn of National Security Agency office building at the foot of Mt. Amee in Daesung district, Pyongyang. It was erected on Kim Jong Il’s 46th birthday in 1988 and is constructed not of bronze, but of gold.

In addition to the one standing statue of Kim Jong Il, all Colleague Kim Il Sung Revolutionary History Institutes, which are located in each major local office or agency, showcase plaster busts of the Kim son, and at the International Friendship Museum in Mt. Myohang, a large sitting statue was constructed.

I have spent about 20 days in the DPRK.  I know many people who have spent many many more, and I have never heard of any Kim Jong il statues.  Can anyone confirm this?  Any photos out there?

Rumors of food shortages in North Korea seem to be popping up everywhere (even on this website), so now any change in Pyongyang’s standard operating procedure is interpreted in the media as a direct result of this condition.  Changes in regime behavior might be related to food shortages, but then again, we are talking about the DPRK, and we don’t really know how or why many decisions are made.

The latest North Korean “Kremlinology” comes from Yonhap:

With neither foreign artists singing in praise of Kim, who is dubbed the “Sun of mankind” by the communist state, nor the standard massive gymnastic display performed by about 100,000 people on show, North Koreans started the two-day holiday in a low-key manner.

The North traditionally spends a lot on celebrating one of the nation’s biggest holidays on a grand scale, inviting many foreign musicians and art groups to perform in the “April Friendship Art Festival” that marks the birthday of the nation’s founder and unveiling large public monuments.

Pyongyang, however, has scaled down the previously annual event to a biennual in what analysts said is a measure to save badly needed foreign currency because of worsening hardships facing the country.

and as for Arirang…

The Koryo Tours website claims that Arirang will take place from August to the end of September.  This could change, but it is 2-4 weeks shorter than the last couple of years (although those were interrupted by floods!).

Read the full story here:
N. Korea marks late leader’s birthday amid economic hardship
Yonhap
Shim Sun-ah
4/15/2008

North Korea Today No. 119 Apr 2008
End of March, Price of Rice and Maize Reaches Highest Level in History

(click on image for more legible version)

The price of foodstuffs is increasing at an incredible pace. On March 30th, for the first time in the country, the price of rice went over the 2,000won per kilogram mark and was traded for 2,050won in the city of Nampo. In the case of maize, the situation is even more extreme. The rumors that the price of maize would go over 1,000won in April became a reality and was being sold for 1,000won in places like Pyongyang, Chungjin, and Hamheung, while in Nampo, it was being traded for 1,050won. In other outlying regions, maize was still being traded at high prices ranging from 900won-950won. Only in areas like Onsung, Hoeryung, and some border areas in North Hamgyong Province was rice being traded at the comparatively low price of 1,600won for rice and 650-750won for maize.

(UPDATE 2: 1/12/2009) Last of the children of the Japanese Red Army will return to Japan:

The 14-year-old son of one of the Japanese men who hijacked a Japan Airlines airplane and defected to North Korea in 1970 will travel to Japan next week, the last of the children of the hijackers to move to Japan from the country. A supporter of the hijackers’ family members left for Pyongyang on Saturday, where he will meet with the boy and accompany him to Japan via Beijing on Tuesday.

The boy is the son of Moriaki Wakabayashi, 61, who is on the international wanted list for hijacking the plane. The supporter left the Chinese capital after obtaining a special traveling permit from the Japanese Embassy for the boy, who was born in North Korea and does not have a Japanese passport. Family members of the nine hijackers began returning to Japan in 2001. Those remaining in North Korea will be the four of the nine hijackers still living in the country and two wives who are on the international wanted list for their alleged involvement in the kidnapping of Japanese nationals for North Korea. (Japan Today, 1/10/2009)

(UPDATE: 5 days after NKeconWatch posts the press release)

From the Japan Times (h/t OneFreeKorea)

Asked in a telephone conversation whether the hijackers called for help from the European Parliament, Ford said, “The only help they seemed to want was to publicize their offer.”

Ford said the meeting was set up by his North Korean hosts when discussing barriers to the removal of North Korea from the U.S. list of state sponsors of terrorism.

He said he has informed the Japanese government of his meeting with the hijackers.

“This is an opportunity that I hope the Japanese government will take to move closer to normalize relations between Tokyo and Pyongyang,” Ford said.

Of the nine hijackers who sought asylum in the North, three have died and two who later returned to Japan were convicted.

Read the full article here:
EU lawmaker meets North fugitives
Japan Times
4/15/2008

Press Release:

Monday 7 April 2008

Glyn Ford (Labour MEP for South West England), met in Pyongyang with Moriaki Wakabayashi and Takahiro Konishi two of the four remaining Japanese hijackers in North Korea. Moriaki Wakabayashi and Takahiro Konishi, who hijacked Japan Airlines Yodo Flight 351 from Tokyo to Fukuoka in 1970 declared that they are willing to return to Japan to face trial. 

Following the meeting with the hijackers, Glyn Ford MEP, said: “All four hijackers are now willing to return to Japan.  This offer is only conditional on the dropping of arrest warrants against three of them for possible complicity in the abductions of Japanese citizens to North Korea in the 1980s. Their return would mean that the last remaining obstacle to the US removing its terrorist state designation of North Korea would have been removed consequently allowing progress to be made towards a final settlement of the current nuclear crisis on the Korean Peninsula.”

He continued “This is an opportunity that I hope the Japanese government will take to move closer to normalise relations between Tokyo and Pyongyang. If US Army deserter and defector Robert Jenkins can return to Japan after only serving a token 30 days in jail I see no reason why the Japanese government should refuse to accept an offer that might well lead to the four remaining hijackers, all now in their late 50s and 60s, facing up to 12 years in prison.”

In January Glyn’s book North Korea on the Brink: Struggle for Survival was published by Pluto Press. It will be published in Tokyo in June by Daiichihoki and in Korea by Humanitas.

From Yonhap:

A North Korea-registered cargo ship carrying coal arrived in South Korea’s port city of Ulsan Sunday amid increased cross-border tensions, according to maritime police.

The 2,496-ton freighter Changseong carrying a 29-member crew docked at the port, South Gyeongsang province, around 10:20 a.m. earlier in the day.

The ship carried 4,000 tons of coal, the first batch of 12,000 tons to be delivered by April 25, the police said.

And how much are they paying? IFES has the answer…

North Korea, in keeping with rising international coal prices, appears to have hiked up the export price of heating briquettes twice in the last three months. A North Korea insider in Shenyang, China recently reported, “North Korea’s Trade Bureau Price Control Division raised export prices at least twice as this month came around, so the export price soared up to 50 USD per ton,” and, “As the rising international coal price trend continues, there is a high probability that North Korean heating briquette prices will also rise further.”

Last year, North Korean heating briquettes were exported at 30 USD per ton, but as 2008 rolled around and international prices suddenly shot up, DPRK coal prices rose by over 50 percent, putting a significant burden on Chinese importers. However, Chinese importers still prefer DPRK briquettes as shipping costs from alternatives such as Vietnam or Indonesia still make North Korean imports relatively inexpensive.

It has been reported that the DPRK Trade Bureau has approved the export of briquettes to China at below-official prices of 44~45 USD per ton in cases in which there is Chinese capital or equipment has been invested in the coal mine. These charcoal briquettes are North Korea’s largest export item, with China importing 170 million USD-worth in 2007 alone.

So if South Korea was lucky enough to get China’s price (an assumption that might not be the case): 12,000 tons (by April 25) x USD$50/ton= $600,000

Read the full articles here:
N. Korean cargo ship visits Ulsan  
Yonhap
4/13/2008

DPRK coal briquet export prices jump this year
Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
(NK Brief No. 08-4-10-1)
2008-04-10

According to the Daily NK:

An inside North Korean source relayed that North Korean authorities have stepped up its regulations of  “home-brewed wine production and sales” with the purpose of eradicating the food waste by citizens.

Party Inspection Units are looking for all kinds of food waste (marriages, sixtieth-birthday anniversaries, sacrificial rites, and dinners among leaders), but liquor producers and distributors are on the list of targets.  Propaganda is being fed to local workers, extolling them not to waste food, and in order to minimize any bribery or favoritism, inspectors are being called from neighboring provinces.

Those prosecuted in the inspections have been levied fines and all of their liquor and materials confiscated (and I really doubt they are pouring it down drains).

Read the whole story here:
North Korea’s Inspection of Home-Brewed Wine by the Party
Daily NK
Jung Kwon Ho
4/9/2008