North Korean Economy Watch

Today, the Daily NK publishes a review of Peacemaker: South-North Relations and the North Korean Nuclear Issue over the past 20 years,  by Lim Dong Won, “evangelist of the Sunshine Policy” and former director of South Korea’s National Intelligence Service.

The book (not available in English) publicizes dialogues between Kim Jong Il and the author when he visited Pyongyang for the first Inter-Korea Summit in 2000 and as a South Korean delegate in 2002.  

Actually, the Daily NK’s article is not so much a review of the book as it is a series of interesting excerpts:

[Kim Jong il speaking] Joint Security Areais a good movie. I showed it to the generals of the military and cadres of the Party.’ All of sudden, [KJI] asked [the] general of the People’s Army Lee Myung Su and secretary Kim Yong Soon how many series of a South Korean historical drama, “Petticoat Government” they had watched. [KJI] said that ‘South Korea produces historical dramas well. I’ve instructed the Director of the Propaganda Department of the Party to learn the South Korean way of making historical dramas.’

Lim Dong Won also revealed that at the Inter-Korea Summit in 2000, Kim Jong Il agreed with Kim Dae Jung’s comment, “Even after the unification, the U.S. military presence in South Korea will be needed.” The former president Kim asked him “Why are you insisting through your media on the withdrawal of the U.S. military from the South?” and Kim Jong Il replied to him that he wanted President Kim to understand it was just to soothe the peoples’ feeling.

When Lim asked Kim Jong Il to visit Seoul in April of 2002, Kim Jong Il said that “In fact, I tried to visit Seoul in the spring of 2001, but the situation was changed due to George Bush, who looked on us as an enemy, being elected President of the U.S. Furthermore, the situation of the South was such that the leftists demanded that the North apologize to them for the Korean War and the explosion of KAL, and my visiting Seoul would have deteriorated the relations between the North and the South. Therefore, my close associates held me back from going to the South.”

According to his book, Lim revealed that a hot line has been set up since the first Inter-Korea Summit in 2000 and has been used when crises happened between the South and the North. In June, 2002, when a battle occurred in the West Sea, the North sent an urgent telephone-notice, saying “I heard with regret that it happened accidently.”

Read the full story here:
Veiled Dialogues with Kim Jong Il Revealed
Daily NK
6/12/2008

(Click on image for larger view)

Using Naenara and a Chinese language news broadcast, I pieced together Pyongang’s 2008 Olympic torch relay route.

UPDATED: 6/25/2008
The relay began at the Juche Tower and passed by the Golden Lanes Bowling Alley, East Pyongyang Theater (where NY Phil played) and crossed Chongnyu Bridge to West Pyongyang.  Here it passed the Friendship Tower (commemorating Chinese support in the Korean War), Chinese Embassy, Immortal Tower of Kim il Sung, Victorious Fatherland Liberation War Museum, Pothong River Gate, Central Train Station, Kim il Sung Square, Mansu Hill, Chollima Statue, Arch of Triumph, and finished at Kim il Sung Stadium where the relay ended. 

More on the torch relay can be found here.

This will be included in the next version of North Korea Uncovered (Goolge Earth).

Good Friends reports (via Yonhap) that China recently increased its yearly grain export quota to North Korea from 50,000 to 150,000 tons to help ease the DPRK’s food shortage.  China initially restricted food exports because of its rising domestic food prices.

North Korea’s corn imports from China rose 1,523 percent to 27,600 tons in February this year alone from the same period last year, according to statistics released recently by the Chinese authorities.

Read the full story here:
China softens food export ban to help alleviate N.K. food shortage: aid group
Yonhap
6/9/2008

North Korea’s anti-corruption campaigns have been thoroughly covered by North Korean Economy Watch (see here).  It is possible that these campaigns are simply efforts to stem financial leakages within the complex North Korean bureaucracy–making sure money continues to roll up hill.  It is more likely, however, that there is a political motivation behind them. 

In the past, we have speculated that these anti-corruption campaigns could be setting the stage for a purge, which is necessary before any serious policy change can occur within North Korea’s socialist system.  We have also speculated that these campaigns are related to the succession issue (who will take over after Kim Jong il).  Kim Jong il’s family members are disproportionately represented in party and government organizations, not the military.  After years of songun politics, in which the military was in ascention, it is now time to reign in their business operations and bring them under the scrutiny/control of the party and government (Kim’s family). 

Three weeks ago, we learned that Jang Song Taek (Kim Jong il’s brother-in-law) was running the campaign from Sinuiju.  Today, the Daily NK reports that Kim Jong il’s son, Kim Jong Chol (the Eric Clapton fan), has been running a parallel campaign in North Hamgyong Province.  Jang and Kim III have been mentioned as possible successors to Kim Jong il, and the fact that both of them are competing so directly leads the Daily NK to speculate that Kim Jong il is watching to see who is more adept at these tasks.

According to the Daily NK, Kim’s son is not doing well.  His anti-corruption campaign merely stoked local resentment, so he and his team were pulled before anybody knew Kim III was in charge.  Jang’s efforts in Sinuiju, however, seem to have been greeted with admiration.  If this is the case, things are looking up for Jang at the moment.

Details and the full story can be found here:
Kim Jong Cheol Left off the Inspection Due to Absence of Leadership
Daily NK
Moon Sung Hwee
6/9/2008

Seoul-based “Good Friends” says North Korea is dangerously short of food.  The group released video interviews with disguised North Korean officials appealing for food aid.  They claim one or two people are dying each day in every district of several of North Korea’s southern provinces, which were hardest hit by last year’s heavy flooding. 

 From Voice of America:

One North Korean man says farmers have consumed all of their seed corn and grain and are suffering the most.  Hunger has also brought education to a halt.

“Teachers are saying that if food conditions remain in this precarious state, children will not report to school regularly,” he said. “When the teachers try to get the students to come to school, they are always told that either the children have to go begging for food with their parents, or that they are lying in bed because of starvation.”

“In some districts, workers have not received a month’s worth of rations.  This is the reason why workers are not coming to their factories,” an unidentified Korean said.

Check out the videos on the Voice of America web page:
South Korean Aid Group Releases Video Testimonies Of North’s Food Crisis
Voice of America
Kurt Achin
6/9/2008

As the Japanese government continues talks with the DPRK (after taking a year off), A Korean woman who emigrated from Japan to North Korea in 1963 (and returned in 2003) will file an 11 million yen suit against the General Association of Korean Residents in Japan, or Chongryon, claiming the group neglected to explain the reality of North Korea to her, and as a result, it is responsible for her suffering physical and mental pain during her years in North Korea.

Some background from the AP:

Koreans form Japan’s largest minority group, with their ancestors brought to the country, often forcibly, during Tokyo’s 1910-1945 colonial rule over the Korean peninsula.

A total of 93,340 people — mostly Koreans but also their spouses and children with Japanese nationality — moved to North Korea between 1959 and 1984 in a deal between the countries’ Red Cross societies aimed at settling the legacy of the past.

Read the full stories here:
N. Korea defector to sue Chongryon over emigration program
TMC.net
6/8/2008

Defector to sue North Korean ’embassy’ in Japan: report
Associated Press
6/8/2008

Expectations Modest as Japan, North Korea Resume Talks
Voice of America
Kurt Achin
6/7/2008

UPDATE: Associated Press (via Herald Tribune) 

North Korea won the 2008 Women’s Asian Cup with a 2-1 win Sunday over defending champion China.

Two second half goals in 10 minutes saw the North Koreans come from behind in the final to beat their neighbor and win their third Asian crown in the past four tournaments.

Bi Yan opened the scoring for China with a long-range shot in the 11th minute, and it held that advantage to halftime.

North Korea drew level in the 57th minute with a header from Asian player of the year Ri Kum Suk, who scored a hat trick in the semifinal win over Australia.

The North Koreans went ahead in the 66th when China goalkeeper Zhang Ranyu was only able to block a shot into the path of Kim Young Ae, who put the ball into the net.

ORIGINAL POST:
Women’s Asian Cup: Ri Kum Suk hattrick sinks Australia, puts North Korea in final
Associated Press
6/5/2008

Ri Kum Suk scored a hattrick to power North Korea into the final of the Women’s Asian Cup with a 3-0 win over Australia on Thursday.

North Korea will meet the winner of Thursday’s later semifinal between China and Japan.

Ri, the reigning Asian Football Confederation women’s player of the year, opened the scoring in just the second minute, and doubled the lead four minutes before halftime when she blasted home after a pass from Ri Un Suk.

Australia, which only lost the 2006 final by a penalty shootout, pushed hard for a goal to get back into the contest, but Ri sealed the result on the hour when she shot between the goalkeeper’s legs.

North Korea is a two-time winner of the Women’s Asian Cup, with titles in 2001 and 2003.

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
5/6/2008

Even North Korea’s North and South Hwanghae Provinces, an area known as the DPRK’s ‘Ricebowl’, now appears to be suffering severe rice shortages, with prices at the end of last month hitting 4,000~4,500 DPRK Won per kg, more than three times the cost of a kilogram of rice last February, according to a June 5 report by Good Friends, a human rights group focusing its efforts on North Korea.

According to Good Friends’ latest newsletter, prices across South Hwanghae Province all rose to 4,500 DPRK Won on May 30, and at the same time, prices in South Hwanghae rose to over 4,000 DPRK Won per kg. In Sariwon, North Hwanghae Province, rice was 1,350 DPRK Won/kg in February, rose to 1,700 DPRK Won/kg in March, climbed again to 2,200 DPRK Won/kg in April, then shot up to 2,500 DPRK Won/kg on the 10 th of last month, 3,500 DPRK Won on the 25 th, and 4,200 DPRK Won on the 30 th. As the average monthly wage of a North Korean laborer is thought to be around 3,000 DPRK Won, rice selling at 4,000 DPRK Won/kg is well out of reach.

Corn prices in the Sariwon region at the end of last month was 1,950 DPRK Won/kg, 270 percent higher than the 720 Won prices seen in February, and the newsletter reported that prices throughout North and South Hwanghae Province were generally 1,950-2000 DPRK Won/kg. In particular, the newsletter stressed that at one military base in the Hwanghae area, rations have run so short that officers with children under the age of 12 will be ordered to send their families to their parents’ or in-law’s house until rations are reissued in November.

The newsletter drives the point home by pointing out, “These officers that send their families will take their meals on base…this is the first time since the ‘arduous march’ that there has been an order to send families [away] because of this kind of ration shortage.”

North Korean Economy Watch would like to welcome our first reader from Turkmenistan today!  If you are interested in visiting Turkmensitan, talk to Koryo Tours.

In case you are wondering, this web site is frequently accessed from Chinese cities along the North Korean border, but we have yet to get a hit from inside North Korea.

From Her Majesty’s Foreign and Commonwealth Office:

Mr Peter Hughes has been appointed Her Majesty’s Ambassador to the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea in succession to Mr John Everard who will be retiring from the Diplomatic Service. Mr Hughes will take up his appointment during July 2008.

His CV can be found here.