North Korean Economy Watch

In the last twenty years, a number of 1960s-era, Soviet-style houses in the DPRK’s elite housing compounds have been upgraded into more “western-contemporary” housing.  For example, compare Kenji Fujimoto’s 1989 Kangdong photo (below) with a 2004 image from Google Earth:

1989

2004

Judging from Google Earth imagery, this process is largely completed, though there still appear to be a few locations that that have not been remodeled.  Looking at Onchon County (below) we can see that the reconstruction of old-style compounds was still under way as of 2005.  The house on the left of both photos appears to already be upgraded in 2002, but by 2005 the unit on the right of the first photo (below) has been completely leveled.  Reconstruction of this residence was probably underway into early 2006. 

I do not know the calculus used to determine which residencies are updated, neither in degree nor order.  I am also immediately unaware of which organization/s is/are responsible for construction/maintenance of these facilities.  A KPA unit built Sihanouk’s palace on Lake Changsuwon, and it is reasonable to believe the same unit constructed in the above locations as well.  If any readers have more information on this, please let me know.

UPDATE: (Hat tip to Mike) “The residences are either constructed on commission or they are presented to KJI, or some other CCKWP cadre, as a gift.  KJI, his family, members of the Kang and Jang families, long time CCKWP members and select intelligence/security appartus officials are known to have designated homes.

The home are constructed by KPA construction units (like Changsuwon) in cooperation with civilian crews under the auspices of the Escort/Bodyguard Bureau.  Some members of the civilian crews also work on the large monuments in the DPRK, and overseas.   When the homes are built or renovated on commission, the financing comes from the CCKWP offices.  A lot of the fixtures and furnishings are purchased through SOE’s or  by discreet MOFA officers.  A lot of these purchases are conducted in Beijing, Moscow, Geneva, Vienna and Paris. “

Not to draw to stark a comparison, but the reverse process is also evident through dated satellite photos.  This warehouse/factory near the Bukchang Thermal Power Plant has clearly fallen into disrepair (and possible asset stripping) between 2002 and 2005.

Daily NK
Jung Kwon Ho
2/26/2009

Hoarding grain, a major way for general farmers to substitute for the lack of public provisions, was barely possible during the latter-half of last year in Hwanghae Province, the breadbasket of North Korea, according to a source inside the country.

The source from South Hwanghae Province said, “It has become more difficult to hoard grains because the number of security guards on farms since late last year, and monthly house searches by the Province and counties, has made it much more difficult. The punishment for hoarding grain was strengthened; now hoarders are sent to long term reeducation camps.”

Hoarding grain has become a main tool for survival among general farmers since public provision has not been supplied consistently, if at all, in recent years.

Farmers steal grains right before harvest from the storage. From the perspective of the North Korean authorities it is stealing, but it is a lifeline for the people.

The average amount of hoarded grain was more than 20 kilograms in the past, but there were some households in Hwanghae Province that obtained one ton or more of grain. After that, the authorities’ countermoves became fiercer.

The source reported, “Now, farmers complain that it turns out that only guards can openly hoard grain.”

He explained that, “Farmers should receive a years wages according to their labor, but in reality the authorities exclude many parts of it for many reasons, so they can get merely 200,000 North Korean won, which is around three or four months living costs in North Korea.”

He added, “More than half the farmers eat porridge with floury corn and dried vegetables. In the situation where there are no provisions from the state, houses in which the whole family commits suicide can be found.”

Meanwhile, there is a rumor that 15-days’ rations will be distributed in regions of South Pyongan Province in February or March.

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
NK Brief No. 09-2-26-1
2/26/2009

It has been reported that 2-3 day’s worth of special rations were issued to parts of North Pyongan and South Hwanghae provinces, including to those North Koreans working in the Kaesong Industrial Complex, to mark the February 16 birthday of Kim Jong Il.

For families with more than four members, 2 kilograms of rice and 2 kilograms of noodles, with corn making up the rest of the rations. Smaller families received a kilogram each of rice and noodles, in addition to corn. Recently, rations have been in very short supply, even on farms, so North Koreans have been very much looking forward to these special rations.

Since last year, the number of guards stationed at farms was increased sharply, along with increasingly more intrusive house searches, as the theft and consumption of food by those living on the farms was banned. Over the past few years, as the state failed to provide steady rations to the farmers and families on the agricultural plots, these farmers began stealing rice from the cooperative farms as a means to maintain their lifestyles.

However, in November and December of last year, inspections were carried out in cities and districts as grain management on farms was strengthened, leading to an increase in theft of foodstuffs. Those caught stealing would be dragged in front of labor authorities and often sentenced to confinement.

The districts receiving these special rations were all specifically chosen by North Korean authorities. Hweryong City, in North Hamgyong Province, is the hometown of Kim Jong Il’s mother, Kim Jong Sook, while the Samjiyon district, in Yanggang Province, is where Kim Jong Il claims to have been born. Kaesong was thought to have been chosen in order to propagandize the rations to the outside world.

One source reported that in 2006, an anti-socialist group emerged in the city of Hweryong, and that leaders of citizen groups were appealing, “It is difficult to live in our mother (Kim Jong Sook)’s hometown…Let’s all flee to China,” and since Kim Jong Il became aware of the uprising, special rations have been given on holidays and other special occasions. That said, currently, Kim Jong Il’s practice of gift giving continues to be aimed at the leading class in the North, with city and district Party secretaries also receiving gifts, along with central Party authorities. Gifts are also provided to state heroes and model laborers.

See previous posts on Kim’s birthday rations here.

See photos of Birthday rations from the Daily NK here.

According to Asia Pulse Businesswire (Hat tip to Oliver):

Trade between South and North Korea declined 19.6 per cent in January from a year earlier, apparently hit by the slumping South Korean economy and frayed Seoul-Pyongyang relations, the South’s official data showed on Feb. 22.

Inter-Korean trade reached US$113 million in January, down from $140.5 million a year ago, marking the fifth straight monthly fall, the data made available by Unification Ministry in Seoul said.

“The decline in inter-Korean trade appears compounded by several factors like the slowing economic downturn and frozen relations between the two Koreas,” the ministry said in the data.

Inter-Korean relations have chilled since conservative South Korean President Lee Myung-bak took office a year ago, pledging to get tough on North Korea.

The South Korean economy is sharply slumping, due to tumbling exports and sluggish domestic demand. South Korea is widely expected to post negative economic growth this year, the first annual contraction since the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis.

Citation:
Inter-Korean trade dips 20 pct in January
Asia Pulse Businesswire
February 26, 2009
(Yonhap)

Bradley Martin writes in Bloomberg this morning:

A U.K. businessman is seeking to raise $50 million to invest in North Korea, reviving a 2005 plan after the U.S. government removed the communist regime from its list of countries that support terrorism.

ChosunFund Pte. Ltd. will join with North Korean partners for mining and energy projects, Colin McAskill, founder of the Singapore-incorporated fund, said in an interview.

“The country holds huge natural resources but is capital starved and lacks the technology and management skills with which to develop them,” McAskill said.

North Korea’s economy collapsed in the 1990s with the demise of communist regimes in Eastern Europe that had provided aid and favorable trade terms. McAskill scrapped the original fund after U.S.-imposed sanctions that led to a freezing of North Korean deposits at international banks.

The U.S. government removed the terrorist designation last October in exchange for wider scrutiny of North Korea’s nuclear weapons programs. U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said Feb. 20 that ties with North Korea won’t improve as long as it continues provocative verbal attacks on South Korea.

McAskill, 69, said he has been consulting on potential North Korean projects since 1987. While the country attracts one-off investment deals such as a recent contract licensing Orascom Telecom Holding SAE to provide wireless telephone services, it has struggled to raise money from global financial markets since defaulting on overseas debt in the 1970s.

London-based emerging markets money manager Fabien Pictet & Partners Ltd. was considering a fund that would invest in South Korean companies that do business with the North. The idea is “on hold for the time being,” Jonathan Neill, managing director, said in an e-mail.

Read the full story here:
North Korea Fund Seeks $50 Million After Terror Label Removed
Bloomberg
Bradley Martin
2/24/2009

DPRK trade deficit with China nears USD$1.3 billion
Institutue for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
NK Brief No. 09-3-5-1
2009-03-05

As North Korean dependence on trade with China continues to grow, the amount of overall trade hit a record high in 2008, however its trade deficit rose along with it. According to recent statistics released by China’s Customs Bureau and the Ministry of Commerce, trade between the DPRK and PRC in 2008 was worth a total of 2.78 billion USD, a 41.2 percent increase over the mere 1.97 billion USD recorded in 2007.

DPRK exports to China were worth 750 million USD, a 29.7 percent rise, while imports from China totaled 2.03 billion USD, up 46 percent, which led to a record 1.28 billion USD trade deficit. Mineral resources accounted for more than half (54.7 percent) of North Korea’s exports to China, while the majority of imports were machinery and electronic goods.

The North’s trade deficit with China has continued to grow for the past five years straight. In 2004, the North’s trade deficit was a mere 210 million USD, but this more than doubled, to 580 million USD, in 2005, rose to 760 million USD in 2006, and then hit 810 million USD in 2007. The reason for the sudden jump in the North’s trade deficit appears to be the globally rising cost of raw materials, and therefore Pyongyang’s trade deficit is expected to continue to rise rapidly in the near future.

This deficit is exacerbated by the North’s isolation from the rest of the international community, leaving it little choice but to continue trading at prices set by the Chinese. With the currently frigid relations between Pyongyang and Seoul, and the deadlock in 6-Party Talks, tensions on the Korean Peninsula make it increasingly difficult for North Korea to trade with other countries, so its dependence on China and Chinese goods is expected to continue to grow. 

And according to the Choson Ilbo:

Trade between North Korea and China totaled US$2.78 billion last year, up 41.2 percent from $1.97 billion in the previous year, according to the statistics released on Monday by the China Customs and China’s Ministry of Commerce. North Korea’s imports topped $2.03 billion, up 46 percent from the previous year, but its exports stood at $750 million, up only 29.7 percent.

As a result, North Korea’s trade deficit with China reached a record high of $1.28 billion, up a whopping 57.7 percent from $810 million in 2007. It has been rising steadily from $210 million in 2004.

Mineral resources accounted for 54.7 percent of the North’s exports to China, while machinery and electronic equipment took up the biggest portion of imports.

The figures are attributable to the drastically increased prices of raw materials and the North’s deepening dependency on China. “North Korea’s dependence on China appears to be rising steadily because foreign countries other than China are reluctant to trade with the North because of strained inter-Korean relations and the stalled six-party talks,” said a North Korea export in Beijing diplomatic circles.

Read the full article here:
N.Korea’s Reliance on China Trade Deepens
Choson Ilbo
2/24/2009

The newest version of Google Earth allows the user to scroll backwards in time to see how a specific area has changed over the years.  Although the satelite imagery available for North Korea needs to be expanded, by utilizing the current stock of photos we can uncover some interesting developments.

Below is an example—a bird’s eye view of the expansion of Pyongyang’s eastern market (click on images for full size):

December 25, 2003

June 4, 2004

April 6, 2005

October 29, 2005

Most recently

If any readers out there discover other interesting developments please let me know.

Stephan Haggard and Marcus Noland
Asia Pacific Bulletin
No. 27, February 5, 2009

Abstract
North Korea has suffered chronic hunger problems for two decades. A famine in the 1990s killed up to one million people and shortages have remained endemic. Most observers believe that the recent harvest is the best in years, but even under optimistic scenarios, food-related distress is likely to continue. Stephan Haggard and Marcus Noland discuss North Korea’s current food situation and the prospects for the future.

Download the full paper in PDF here. 

Institute for Far Esatern Studies (IFES)
NK Brief No. 09-2-18-1
2/18/2009

The online newsletter Open News for North Korea has recently reported that the cost of rice in the DPRK has fallen drastically. The report stated, “The price of rice in a number of cities, including Pyongyang, Nampo, Sinuiju, Hyesan, and Chungjin, has fallen an average of 300-400 won since the middle of last month,” but noted, “however, this is the nominal price, and considering that North Korea’s exchange rate has risen 10-20 percent compared to the Chinese Yuan, the actual fall in price is even greater.”

The price of one kilogram of rice in Pyongyang at the end of last month was 1700-1800 won (earlier prices were from 2000-2100 won); In Pyongsong and Soonchun, 1700won (2100 won), in Sinuiju, 1660 won (2000 won), in Hyesan, 1800 won (2500 won at the end of November), and Chungjin, 1800-1900 won (2000-2500 won at the beginning of January).

The newsletter attributed the drop in prices to the fact that rations from last year’s harvest were distributed to farmers on collective farms in January, and those farmers are now selling those rations in markets. The article explained that prices drop in January and February every year for the same reason.

In addition, North Korea reported that last year’s harvest was the largest in recent years, and that the North had imported large quantities of foodstuffs from China over the past several months. The newsletter stated that this, along with U.S. food aid shipped to Nampo, further added to the drop in prices.

“The North Korean Cabinet handed down an internal order to exchange foreign currency gained through exports until the end of December last year to import as much food as possible,” and the North imported 500 tons of Chinese rice through Sinuiju by January 9. Authorities insisted that after this first import, “[the North] will continue to exchange foreign currency for rice.”

These rice imports are being handled by mining and trade offices, including coal mining companies, the Central Party Underground Special Offices (Reungra Office 88, etc.), Kangsung Trade Office No. 54, which is controlled by the North’s military, Ryongaksan Trade Office, Eunpasan Trade Office.

North Korea is setting aside some imported rice as emergency stores, explaining that they are “in case South-North tensions escalate.”

Wednesday 4 March, 14:00 – 17:30
KVK The Hague, Randstadzaal
Koningskade 30, 2596 AA  Den Haag

This event is sponsored by GPI Consultancy (see previous posts here).

Speakers include:

Willem Lobbes, boardmember of the Dutch Korean Tradeclub, Director of Lobbes Insurance Consultants

Representative of the DPRK Embassy in Bern, Switzerland

Egbert Wissink, CEO of NovolinQ BV

Professor Evert Jacobsen, University of Wageningen

Kees van Galen, CEO VNC Asia Travel
 
Paul Tjia, Director of GPI Consultancy

The AGENDA can be found here (PDF).

The REGISTRATION FORM can be downloaded here.