North Korean Economy Watch

UPDTE 5: (h/t Werner) Here is a link to the full list of SPA members (in Korean).   Kim Jong il’s district, 333, is the only one not published.  Jang Song Taek (Kim’s borther in law) is representing district 31.

UPDATE 4: Michael Madden sends in more biographies of prominent North Koreans:

Kim Kyong Hui, biography here
Ju Sang Song, biography here
Ji Yong Chun, biography here
Choe Ryong Hae,  biography here
Kim Yong Ju, biography here

UPDATE 3: Daily NK coverage of the election results here. 

UPDATE 2: Yonhap reports that fewer lawmakers were replaced than in the 2003 election, when there was a 50% turnover.  Choe Sung-chol, vice chairman of the Asia-Pacific Peace Committee handling inter-Korean affairs, was removed from the Assembly, according to its new list. 

UPDATE 1: The AP is reporting that none of Kim Jong il’s sons were (s)elected to the SPA.  Who was (s)elected?  I am still waiting on the full list, but the AP reports the following:

Members of the new parliament announced Monday included Kim Yong Nam, the North’s No. 2 official and the ceremonial head of state; Jang Song Taek, head of the Workers’ Party’s administrative department and Kim Jong Il’s brother-in-law; and Kang Sok Ju, the first vice foreign minister.

Read the full story here. 

ORIGINAL POST: On Sunday, March 8, the DPRK will hold “our-style elections” for members of the Supreme People’s Assembly.  Organizaitonal charts of the North Korean government can be found here, although they are based on the a de jure reading of DPRK’s legal procedures not the de facto operation of the political system.  A list of top policymakers (in state offices) can be found here.  I will post relevant material as it becomes available.  In the meantime, here is some related information:

1. DPRK recent military personnel changes.

2. Kim Jong il nominated for SPA.

3. CIA publishes list of policymakers.

4. DPRK ministerial shakeup.

5. Election day pictures: 1, 2, 3.

6. KCNA coverage of the election: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7.

7. Biographies if prominent NK policy-makers by Michael Madden posted below.

The Associated Press provides some context for the (s)election:

North Korea holds elections Sunday for its legislature, the Supreme People’s Assembly. A look at key factors in the upcoming poll:

WHAT’S AT STAKE: Voters will elect the country’s 12th Supreme People’s Assembly for a five-year term. The assembly currently has 687 deputies but the number, which is linked to the country’s population, could change.

WHY IT’S IMPORTANT: Legislatively, the assembly is a rubber-stamp body. But since members double as key officials, the election provides a glimpse of the ruling elite in the secretive country.

WHO’S RUNNING: Only one candidate runs in each constituency. By law, individuals and organizations can recommend candidates, but the ruling Workers’ Party is widely believed to pick candidates. North Korean leader Kim Jong Il is running in constituency No. 333.

THE VOTE: Officially, it’s a secret vote. In reality, it’s not. To vote against a candidate, voters go to a special booth to cross out the name, making it obvious who is doing so. Defectors say opposing a candidate is unthinkable. Polls typically open from 9 a.m. to 6 p.m. and results are announced the following day.

TURNOUT: In the last election in 2003, turnout was 99.9 percent, state media said. All citizens aged 17 or older are eligible to vote.

The Donga Ilbo offers, “6 Rising Stars in the North Korean Elite”:

A report by the South Korean Unification Ministry presented to the National Assembly yesterday mentioned six politicians among the 20 most frequently mentioned by the North’s official daily Rodong Shinmun last year as rising stars in Pyongyang’s hierarchy.

The six were not mentioned in 2007.

One North Korea expert said, “North Korea’s leadership has been controlled by Kim Jong Il. Those frequently mentioned by media can be considered powerful politicians. After the elections Sunday, North Korea’s political elite will be replaced. In the process, we need to pay more attention to the rising stars.”

The most notable among the six is Ri Yong Chol, first secretary of the Central Committee of the Kim Il Sung Socialist Youth League. He ranks 15th for being mentioned 45 times last year.

Since being elected secretary in December 2007, Ri has often appeared on the political scene. He even had an interview with the state-run (North) Korean Central News Agency on the implementation of projects announced in a New Year’s joint editorial.

Kim Jong Il established the league, a fringe organization of the ruling Workers’ Party whose previous name was the Socialist Working Youth League, to strengthen the political foundation of his successor.

To lure the “third and fourth generations of revolution,” Kim renamed the body the Kim Il Sung Socialist Youth League after his late father.

In 2007, the list of the North’s top 20 politicians had nobody from the league. Ri’s rapid rise indicates Kim Jong Il’s strategy to strengthen the power of his successor.

Kim Thae Jong, vice director of the international department of the party’s Central Committee, ranks ninth for appearing 62 times in the media. He was a frequent player in diplomacy last year and even appeared in the royal box when North Korea held a national event to commemorate the 17th anniversary of Kim Jong Il’s taking office as supreme commander of the North’s military in December last year.

In 2007, Vice Marshal Kim Il Chol was the sole military officer among the top 20 elites but fell out of last year’s list.

Replacing him were marshals Hyon Chol Hae (11th) and Ri Myong Su (13th). Hyon accompanied Kim Jong Il most often last year and Ri ranked second in that category.

Among Cabinet members, Foreign Trade Minister Ri Ryong Nam, who was mentioned by media 43 times, ranked 17th. Kim Jong Il appointed nine new ministers including Ri last year.

Most of the six ministers appointed since October last year have been emerging technocrats.

Michael Madden submits these brief biographies of some DPRK notables:

Kim Ki-nam, biography (PDF), photo
Ri Yong-mu, biography (PDF)
Kim Il-chol, biography (PDF), photo
Jon Pyong-ho, biography (PDF)

Jang Brothers

Jang Sung-taek, PDF biography here, recent photo with Kim Jong il here.

Jang Sung-gil
Birth date: January 13, 1939
Last known position: Lieutenant General, KPA

Positions held:
1981: Colonel, and Vice-Commanding Officer, Second Corps, KPA
1982: Colonel, and Commanding Officer, 13th Division, Second Corps, KPA
Vice-Commanding Officer, Second Corps, KPA
1985: Major General, Commanding Officer, 32nd Division, Fifth Corps, KPA
1992: Vice-Commanding Officer, Fourth Corps, KPA
1992: Promoted to Lieutenant General, KPA (April)*
1996: Commanding Officer, 105th Division, Ryu Kyong-su Tank Command, KPA (December)

Presumed to be relieved of command of the 105th Tank Division, during JST’s p.n.g. status.

*General Jang is part of the same 1992 class that promoted Kim Yong Chun

Jang Sung-u
Born: 1935, Kangwon Province
Education
Kim il Sung Military Academy

Positions held:
1971: Vice Department Director, Organization and Guidance Department, CCKWP
1977: Promoted to Major General, KPA
1980: Member, CCKWP (October)
1982: Dlegate, 7th SPA (February)
Awarded Order of Kim il Sung (April)
1984: Promoted to Lieutenant General, KPA (May)
1986: Delegate, 8th SPA (November)
1988: Director-General, Reconnaissance Bureau, MPAF
1989: 1st Vice Director, Public Security Department (January)
1990: Delegate, 9th SPA, representing Saenal, South Hwanghae (April)
Promoted to Colonel-General, KPA (presumed April)
Member, Qualification Screening Committee, SPA (May)
1991: Director, General Political Bureau, State Security Department (December)
1992: Interim Position in the Central Command, KPA (April)
Director-General, General Political Bureau, State Security (May)
1994: Commanding Officer, Third Corps, KPA
Member, Kim il Sung Funeral Committee [#85]
1995: Dismissal, as Director-General, General Political Bureau, State Security Department (November)
1996: Commanding Officer, Third Corps, KPA (July)
1998: Delegate 10th SPA (July)

Jang’s inner circle

Cho Chun Hwang
Position: First Vice Department Director, Propaganda and Agitation Department, CCKWP
Education:
Baccalaureate, History, Kim il Sung University

Previous positions:
1972-1990: Mr. Cho worked as a staff member, division director, and department deputy director in the Propaganda and Agitation Department of the CCKWP.
1991: Vice Department Director, Propaganda and Agitation Department, CCKWP
1997: First Vice Department Director, Propaganda and Agitation Department, CCKWP (June)
2000: Vice Department Director Propaganda and Agitation Department, CCKWP (July)

Ri Yong Bok
Position(s): Chief Secretary, Nampho City People’s Committee
Member, 11th SPA
Member, Qualification Screening Committee, SPA

Positions held:
1972: Chairman, KIS League of Socialist Working Youth (December)
Presidium member and delegate, 5th SPA (December)
1982: Vice Department Director, Youth Guidance and Three Revolutions Department, CCKWP (June)
1998: Delegate (606 ED), 10th SPA (July)
Appointed Chief Secretary, Nampho City People’s Committee

Ri Kwang Gun
Position: unknown, possibly in Europe; former Minister of Foreign Trade
Born: 1935
Education:
Namsan Senior Middle School
Pyongyang Foreign Language Institute, German Department
Kim il Sung University

Positions held:
1965: Lecturer, German Department, Pyongyang Foreign Language Institute
1972: Professor, German Department, Kim il Sung University
1977-1978: Ministry of Foreign Trade
1979: State External Economic Affairs Commission
1987: 1st Secretary, Economic Affairs, DPRK Representative to Germany
1991: State External Economic Affairs Commission
1997 (presumed): Korea General Equipment Import and Export Corporation
2000: Appointed Minister of Foreign Trade, DPRK (December)

O Kuk Ryol
Born:  1931, Jilin, PRC
Education:
Mangyongdae Revolutionary School
Kim il Sung University
USSR Croatia Military University (1962)

Positions held:
1964: Promoted Major-General, KPA Air Force
Appointed, Dean, KPA Air Force Academy (November)
1967: Promoted Lieutenant-General and Commanding Officer, KPA Air Force (October)
Delegate, 4th SPA (November)
1970: Appointed Members, CCKWP (November)
1972: Delegate, 5th SPA (December)
1977: Appointed Vice Chief of Staff, KPA (October)
Delegate, 6th SPA (November)
1978: Appointed Alternate Member, Political Bureau, CCKWP
1979: appointed Chief of Staff, KPA (September)
[His command of the KPA Air Force was succeeded by Jo Myong Rok]
1980: Promoted to Colonel General, KPA (September)
Member, CCKWP; Member, Political Bureau (October)
Member, Central Military Committee
1982: Delegate, 7th SPA (February)
Member, Central People’s Committee
Awarded Order of Kim il Sung (April)
1985: Promoted General, KPA (April)
1986: Delegate, 8th SPA (November)
1988: Removed as KPA Chief of Staff (February)
Removed from the Political Bureau, CCKWP (April)
Removed from Central Military Committee (April)
Appointed Director of Civil Defense, CCKWP (November)
1989: Appointed Department Director, Strategy Department, CCKWP (July)
1992: Order of Kim il Sung (April)
1994: Member, Kim il Sung Funeral Committee (#45) (July)
1995: Member, O Jin-U Funeral Committee (#43) (February)
1998: Delegate (356 Electoral District), 10th SPA (July)
2003: Delegate, 11th SPA
2009: Appointed Vice Chair, NDC (February)

Ongoing: Member, CCKWP; State Funeral Committee

Jang rival

Ri Jah Gang
Postion held:  1st Vice Department Director, Organization and Guidance, CCKWP
Born: 1930
Education:
Kim il Sung University

Positions held:
1973: Cadre, Organization and Guidance Department, CCKWP
1975: Vice Director, Organization and Guidance Department, CCKWP
2001: 1st Vice Director, Organization and Guidance Department, CCKWP (July)

…

On the list of so-called reliable members of the KPA, General Jang Song-u is near the top.  General Jang’s last known position was in the Third Army Corps, whose primary mission is the military defense of Pyongyang.  The Third Army Corps is also responsible the maintenance and support of the Kamsusan Memorial Palace, where General Jang serves as a kind of military officer in residence.   General Jang has always had the support of his younger brother, Jang Song-taek, and the brothers’ careers have advanced on parallel paths in the KPA and the KWP.  Although, due most likely to his military affiliation and the advantage of age (he is eleven years older than Song-taek), General Jang was the first brother admitted to the CCKWP apparatus when he was assigned as a Vice Director of the Organization and Guidance Department CCKWP in 1973.  This was the same year that another Kim Jong il associate with KPA duties, Ri Ji Gang, was assigned to Organization and Guidance.  Based on the accounts of KPA and DPRK State events from the KCNA, General Jang was neither reassigned nor demoted when his brother was removed from the Organization and Guidance Department and confined to his chalet.  Among the capacities in which General Jang has served: he was the commanding military officer in the troop review and parade on the 50th Anniversary of the KWP Foundation in 1995 and; he has assumed interim operational command over the Escort/Bodyguard Units.  Jang Song-u occupies the intersection of the politico(politburo)-military structure and the intelligence agencies (including State Security and the Escort/Bodyguard Units).  The conjunction of General Jang’s political connections and military assignments give him a significant role in matters concerning succeeding governments to Kim Jong il.  In many ways, General Jang’s profile resembles that of those close Kim il Sung aides who eased Kim Jong il into his current job.

UPDATE:  Hat tip to Stafford who provides a link to the Henley Visa Restrictions Index.

ORIGINAL POST: (Hat tip to Will Wilkinson)  How many countries can you visit on your passport without obtaining a visa?  According to a recent table compiled by The Economist, Denmark, Germany, and the USA offer the most opportunities.   According to the story, “South Koreans could visit 144 countries, whereas North Koreans could visit just 29 countries—if only their government would let them out.”

Below is the table taken from The Economist. 

This week, Paul Eckert of Reuters informs us of an interesting study by Hazel Smith, titled, North Korean Shipping: A Potential for WMD Proliferation?.

According to the Reuters article:

British North Korea expert Hazel Smith said her detailed study of North Korean merchant shipping showed a fleet of only 242 aging vessels faces too much scrutiny in the world’s ports to be a significant conduit for weapons of mass destruction.

“We can’t really find very much hard evidence of North Korean ships involved in smuggling WMD or components of WMD,” Smith, of Cranfield University, told a Washington meeting of think tank East-West Center.

The weapons of mass destruction trade North Korea conducts, such as missile sales to Iran or Pakistan, is more likely moved by aircraft or allied vessels than on highly suspect North Korean-owned or -flagged ships, her report said.

Her findings, based on tracking ship movements using Lloyds Shipping Register and other insurance databases, call into question the efficacy of the Proliferation Security Initiative, a U.S.-led network of countries launched in 2003 to stop illicit weapons of mass destruction shipments because that effort focuses on shipping, she said.

Anti-proliferation efforts should instead focus on strengthening port controls and negotiating North Korean entry into international arms control treaties as part of a broader disarmament diplomacy with Pyongyang, Smith said.

HIGHLY SUSPECT SHIPS

North Korea’s fragmented merchant shipping industry has only a handful of directly state- or provincial-owned vessels, with most run by small owner operators, who lost state subsidies in the early 1990s, said the study.

With underpaid seamen, dilapidated vessels and dire cash and food shortages in North Korea, “it wouldn’t be surprising if crew and management would grasp opportunities to earn cash on the side from port calls,” Smith told the East-West Center, which published her report.

But even countries friendly toward North Korea such as China, Russia and Vietnam impose strict inspections on North Korean merchant ships, which are frequently stopped and even detained for serious safety violations, said the report.

In four publicly known cases between 1992-2003 in which North Korean vessels were stopped on suspicion of shipping WMD components or chemicals, none were prosecuted because the cargo was either undetermined, legal or “dual-use,” with legal applications Smith said.

You can download a PDF version of Prof. Smith’s paper here.  Below is the abstract:

The possibility that North Korean ships may be smuggling weapons of mass destruction is a matter of intense concern in the Asia Pacific region and beyond. The few reported incidents of North Korean ships involved in WMD transport are ambiguous; some ships have been engaged in legal weapons trade and some carried “dual-use” goods suitable for use in nonmilitary applications, like agriculture. Ownership of the North Korean merchant fleet is largely private and highly fragmented; most of its ships are small, old, and in poor repair, and are often subject to rigorous scrutiny in foreign ports. The inability of the government to effectively regulate the low-cost, substandard shipping industry creates the risk and incentives to smuggle goods, including WMD. Anti-proliferation efforts should abandon the divisive and unsuccessful Proliferation Security Initiative and concentrate on negotiating North Korea’s entry into international arms control treaties, maintain stringent port controls, and negotiate technical assistance to reduce the vulnerability of the North Korean shipping industry.

You can listen to an interview with Hazel Smith here.

Read the full article here:
N.Korea ships smuggle goods, but not WMDs: report
Reuters  (Via Washington Post)
Paul Eckert
3/5/2009

As regular Google Earth users are aware, the DPRK has experienced significant deforestation in recent decades from both private and state actors. The former have cleared land for fuel/heat and private food production. The latter have felled forests to export lumber. However, without private property rights over the lumber and corollary price signals, we have witnessed yet another “tragedy of the commons”–the over extraction of a common-pool resource. 

As can be seen in the image above, official reforestation campaigns have been launched several times.  According to Good Friends, the most recent was announced last September, shortly before the DPRK appointed a new forestry minister, Kim Kwang-yong.  According to the Yonhap article below, however, South Koreans and Europeans have been supporting reforestation projects in the DPRK for nearly ten years:

North Korean workers and students rolled up their sleeves Monday for Tree-planting Day, state-run media said, amid continuing aid from South Korea despite damaged political relations.

North Korea has a high deforestation rate, as residents have cut down trees for fuel. Deforestation is closely linked to the country’s chronic food shortages, as barren mountain slopes leave rice farms prone to severe flooding by summer monsoons, according to aid workers in Seoul.

The North Korean government has banned cutting trees and sought to make its country greener with aid from South Korea and some European governments.

“Covered with trees are mountains and fields of the country from the foot of Mount Paektu, the sacred mountain of the revolution, to the military demarcation line and from the eastern coast to the western coast,” the Korean Central News Agency said in an English-language report titled “Greening and Gardening Campaign Gets Brisk.”

“The tree-planting campaign is being briskly undertaken everywhere in the country … changing the appearance of the country beyond recognition day by day,” it said.

South Korean government and civic groups have been operating sapling fields in the North Korean cities of Kaesong and Pyongyang, as well as near the North’s scenic resort Mount Kumgang, providing seedlings, equipment and technology since 1999. The project has cost South Korea some 9 billion won (US$5.7 million), according to the Ministry of Unification.

Aid workers said the inter-Korean forestry project has continued even though Pyongyang cut off all government-level dialogue in response to Seoul’s hardline policy toward it that began last year.

Ahn Sun-kyong, an aid worker from Green One Korea, an umbrella group of over a dozen non-governmental organizations in Seoul, said it plans to build a seed preservation facility and an apple farm in Pyongyang as new projects this year.

“There may be certain limitations, but this non-governmental exchange project will continue,” Ahn said.

Hwang Jae-sung from the Korean Sharing Movement, which operates the Kaepung sapling field in Kaesong as a member of Green One Korea, said most trees are prematurely cut by residents, who also rake up fallen leaves for fuel.

“Deforestation is directly linked to the food problem,” Hwang, who last visited Kaesong in November, said. “We believe tree planting in North Korea is not only useful for preventing floods, but also can be another means of resolving the food shortages in the North.”

The aid groups say 16-18 percent of North Korean forests, or 1.5-1.6 million hectares out of the North’s 8.9 million hectares of forests, are believed to be deforested. About 80 percent of North Korea is covered by mountains.

Although the support offered by these groups is necessary to restore ecological health and productive power of the DPRK’s agricultural lands, an unfortunate consequence will likely be growing restrictions on private food production which will necessarily require the North Korean people to once again rely on the state for food distribution.

Read previous posts on forestry and environmental protection here.

Read the Yonhap story here:
N. Koreans work to make country green on Tree-planting Day: report
Yonhap
Kim Hyun
3/2/2009

According to this report in the London Times:

International passenger flights have been diverted after the government of North Korea threatened military action against South Korean airliners in the latest escalation of verbal hostilities between the two enemies.

Both of South Korea’s airlines, Korean Air and Asiana, have diverted flights from the east after a statement on North Korea’s official media which implied a threat of attack against civilian aviation. It came in a statement denouncing a joint military exercise between South Korea and the US, which Pyongyang accuses of representing preparations for an invasion of the North.

Under an international agreement, North Korea receives €685 (£610) for each jumbo jet which passes through its airspace, but flights were diverted after yesterday’s warning, adding as much as an hour to flight times and costing airlines an extra four million won (£1,800) per flight.

Read the full article here:
Passenger flights diverted after North Korea threats
Times of London
Richard Lloyd Parry
3/6/2009

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
(NK Brief No. 09-3-3-1)
3/3/2009

INTER-KOREAN RELATIONS
As February began, North Korea continued to publicly warn that the two Koreas were on a path toward war, stating on February 1 that downward spiraling relations between the two Koreas were brought on by ROK President Lee Myung-bak The (North) Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) printed that Lee’s policies toward the North were “the very source of military conflicts and war between the North and the South,” and warned that tensions on the peninsula “may lead to an uncontrollable and unavoidable military conflict and war.”

Poll results released by the Korea Economic Research Institute on February 2 indicated that 68.4 percent of South Koreans support President Lee Myung-bak’s aid-for-denuclearization policy toward the North, and a separate poll by Gallup Korea showed on February 23 that 62 percent of South Koreans blame North Korea for strained inter-Korean relations.

A South Korean official stated on February 4 that 3,000 tones of steel plates that were to be sent to North Korea as part of the energy aid-for-denuclearization deal reached in 2007 would be delayed due to the North’s recent saber-rattling. According to the official, “It is hard to predict when we will send the steel plates. For now, we are not even seriously considering the timing…North Korea should first change its attitude.”

The South Korean government has shot down a project by an ROK journalist organization that would allow the exchange of news with North Korea. It was reported on February 4 that a Unification Ministry Spokesman Kim Ho-nyoun stated, “There are concerns that the exchange of news articles may undermine national security, public order and the interests of the general public.”

On February 16, it was reported the ROK Defense Minister Lee Sang-hee has mandated field commanding officers in all branches of the South Korean military to immediately respond to any North Korean provocation without first seeking permission from superiors. This has further heightened concerns over the possibility of a naval confrontation in the Yellow Sea around the disputed Northern Limit Line.

On February 19, North Korean media warned, “Now that the political and military confrontation between the North and the South has gone into extremes, a physical clash may break out at any moment,” and, “North-South relations have reached such a pass that there is no way to improve them or bring them under control.”

INTER-KOREAN TOURISM
Hyundai Asan, the South Korean company running the Kumgang Mountain tourist resort and the Kaesong City tours in North Korea is on the brink of bankruptcy. A Hyundai representative stated on February 4, “We are reaching a critical situation…unless the tours resume by April, it will be difficult for us to stay afloat.” Hyundai Asan brought in 255.5 trillion Won, or approximately 170.3 million USD, through tour sales in 2007, but in 2008, the company sold only 228.8 billion Won, or 152.5 million USD-worth of tours in 2008. The company employed 1,084 workers when tours were in operation, but has cut back to 479 employees. Of those, approximately 20 percent are receiving only 70 percent of their wages while they work from home. The tours have been on hold since a South Korean tourist was shot and killed at the Kumgang resort last summer.

ROK lawmaker Song Hun-suk stated on February 22, “Since the suspension of the [tourism] program, dozens of South Korean businesses and approximately 1,000 travel agents that offered organized trips to the North have gone to the brink of bankruptcy,” and he reported that approximately 30,000 North and South Koreans were on the verge of unemployment due to the travel ban, with 80 percent of shops and restaurants in South Korea’s Gosung, Gangwon Province, which is near the border, have been forced to close due to the absence of tourists passing through.

INTER-KOREAN TRADE
On February 3, the Korea International Trade Association (KITA) launched a new website, “Inter-Korean Economic Cooperation Information Center”, at http://interkoreatrade.kita.net. The website is designed to provide information and education on North Korean investment and inter-Korean cooperation

On February 8, South Korea’s Unification Ministry released statistics for 2008 regarding the Kaesong Industrial Complex. According to the ministry, production in the complex was up 36 percent over the previous year, reaching a value of 251.42 million USD. The total value of goods produced in the complex since it began operations in 2005 comes to 524.84 million USD.

The Economic Times ran an article on February 15 titled, “Ever heard of Gaesung? Gear up for its products,” in which it reports that the India-South Korea Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) soon to be signed will mean that India recognizes goods produced in the Kaesong Industrial Complex as South Korean goods.

ROK UNIFICATION MINISTER
On February 12, Korea University Professor of Political Science Hyun In-taek was sworn in as the new South Korean minister of unification. At his inauguration, Hyun stated that he is willing to meet with North Korean counterparts “at any time, at any place” in order to repair inter-Korean relations. Hyun has been criticized as being a hardliner, and an architect of the Lee Myung-bak administration’s “Vision 3000: Denuclearization and Openness” policy. Hyun was a key advisor during Lee’s presidential campaign, at which time Lee introduced the Vision policy, and was also a member of Lee’s presidential transition team, which at one point had advocated the shuttering of the Ministry of Unification.

U.S.-DPRK RELATIONS
A group of high-ranking former U.S. officials now advising the Obama administration on the DPRK visited North Korea during the first week of February. The group included Stephen Bosworth, Jonathan Pollack, Morton Avramowitz, and Leon Sigal. The delegation reported that North Korea does not appear to be rushed, and that they had taken a “wait and see” attitude in Pyongyang. Bosworth stated that “[North Korean officials] understand the Obama administration will need some time to sort itself through the policy review and the expressed patience, there is no sense of alarm or urgency.” He also noted that the officials were willing to move forward with denuclearization talks.

Leon Sigal stated on February 1, just prior to his visit to the North, “the Obama administration should promptly send a high-level emissary, perhaps former President Bill Clinton or former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, to Pyongyang.” Sigal also wrote in an online opinion piece that Obama should “hold a summit meeting with Kim Jong-il in return for North Korea disposing some of its plutonium.”

On February 2, the U.S. State Department announced that it would impose sanctions on three North Korean companies for missile export violations. In accordance with the Arms Export Control Act, the Export Administration Act of 1979, the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, the National Emergencies Act, Executive Order 12851 of June 11, 1993, Executive Order 12938 of November 14, 1994, the Korea Mining and Development Corporation, the Mokong Trading Corporation, and Sino-Ki are subject to Nonproliferation Measures and Category II missile sanctions.

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton stated on February 13 that the Obama administration would be willing to normalize bilateral relations with North Korea if the North is genuinely prepared to completely and verifiably eliminate its nuclear weapons program. She stated that the U.S. would have a “great openness” to North Korea, and added, “It’s not only on the diplomatic front,” but that Washington had a “willingness to help the people of North Korea, not just in narrow ways with food and fuel but with energy assistance.” Two days later, North Korea’s head of state Kim Yong Nam reaffirmed that North Korea would “develop relations with countries that are friendly toward us.”

On February 17, Clinton reiterated the U.S. offer of a peace treaty officially ending the Korean War, normalization of relations, and aid, but stated, “The decision as to whether North Korea will cooperate in the six-party talks, end provocative language and actions, is up to them,” and , “If North Korea abides by the obligations it has already entered into and verifiably and completely eliminates its nuclear program, then there will be a reciprocal response,” indicating that North Korea will have to make the next move.

During a trip to South Korea, Clinton stated that North Korea was “badly miscalculating” if it thinks it can “drive a wedge” between Washington an Seoul, and that “North Korea is not going to get a different relationship with the United States while insulting and refusing dialogue with the Republic of Korea.”

U.S. SPECIAL ENVOY TO NORTH KOREA
Following his return from a trip to North Korea at the beginning of the month, former U.S. Ambassador to South Korea Steven Bosworth was named by Secretary of State Clinton as the Obama administration’s special representative for North Korea. He will remain dean of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University, but will now be responsible for coordinating U.S. policy regarding the DPRK. Special Envoy Sung Kim is responsible for ‘day-to-day’ negotiations with Pyongyang.

UK-DPRK RELATIONS
A British parliamentary delegation arrived in North Korea on February 3, coinciding with a visit to London by a DPRK Workers’ Party of Korea delegation. EU Parliament member Glyn Ford stated that he hoped to reopen dialog that was broken off in 2005 on human rights, and denuclearization, hinting that restarting dialog could lead to the transfer of renewable energy technology to the North.

PRC-DPRK TRADE
It was reported on February 24 that trade between China and North Korea reached 2.78 billion USD in 2008, a 41.2 percent increase over the previous year. DPRK imports were up 46 percent, at over 2.03 billion USD, while its exports to China grew 29.7 percent, to 750 million USD. Mineral resources made up 54.7 percent of North Korea’s exports to China, and machinery and electronics made up the majority of imports.

DPRK NUCLEAR PROGRAM

(NKeconWatch: Although this is simply a reprint of the IFES report, I have been notified by NTI that this report is inaccurate. According to NTI Communications Director Cathy Gwin:

“I am writing to respond to your post that referred to erroneous reports that the Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI) is preparing to open an office in Seoul ” in order to help prepare DPRK nuclear scientists for peaceful civilian employment.

The Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI) has worked in the past to develop ideas on how governments could apply cooperative threat reduction (CTR or “Nunn-Lugar”) approaches as part of a solution to the North Korean nuclear challenge.  However, we have no current program to carry out those activities ourselves, nor do we have a program to retrain North Korean scientists.  In addition, we have no current plans to open an office in South Korea, and we do not have branch offices in Ukraine or Kazakhstan.  We have a main office in Washington, DC and a presence in Moscow.

January 31 was the deadline for North Korea to shut down and seal the Yongbyon nuclear reactor as part of 6-Party negotiations, but it failed to meet the deadline. Christopher Hill stated on February 3 that the U.S. would “hold on for a few more days,” but that “we’re not happy that the DPRK essentially has missed this very important deadline.”

On February 2, it was reported that the Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI) would open a new office in Seoul in order to help prepare DPRK nuclear scientists for peaceful civilian employment. The NTI is in the process of building a program to retrain the North’s experts, and “is also considering ways to support not only nuclear scientists at Yongbyon, but also farmers near Yongbyon who provide them with rice,” according to Roy Kim, a professor at Drexel University.

The U.S. government criticized Pakistan’s decision on February 6 to release Abdul Qadeer Khan from house arrest. Khan as been under house arrest for the past 5 years, after admitting to selling nuclear weapons technology to North Korea, as well as Iran and Libya. In 2004, A.Q. Khan took full responsibility for selling the nuclear secrets, stating that the military and government were unaware of his actions. He recanted this confession last year, stating that he had been a scapegoat.

DPRK MISSILE LAUNCH PREPARATIONS
Several countries have reported intelligence pointing to a launch by North Korea of a Taepodong-2 long-range missile. The U.S. State Department warned on February 3 that “a ballistic missile launch by North Korea would be unhelpful and, frankly, provocative,” while the ROK Foreign Ministry noted that a missile launce would “constitute a clear breach of the UN resolution” adopted in 2006. Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Jiang Yu stated, “We hope all the parties can recognize that maintaining stability is in the common interest of the people of the Korean Peninsula.” Preparations appear to be underway at its Musudan-ri base, near the DPRK-PRC border. A Taepodong-2 is thought to have a range of 6,700 kilometers (4,150 miles).

Amid reports that it was preparing the missile launch, North Korea’s Rodong Sinmun printed, “The DPRK’s policy of advancing to space for peaceful purposes is a justifiable aim that fits the global trend of the times. There is no power in the world that can stop it,” and, “ As long as developing and using space are aimed at peaceful purposes and such efforts contribute to enhancing human beings’ happiness, no one in the world can find fault with them.” North Korea continues to deny preparations for a long-range missile launch, and insists that it is preparing to launch a satellite

According to a researcher at the South Korean Agency for Defense Development, if North Korea were to launch a satellite, “given the size of the rocket, the satellite will likely be a low-orbit device,” and low-orbit devices usually need to be fired toward either the North or South Pole in order to successfully reach orbit. This would mean North Korea would need to use Chinese, Russian, Japanese or South Korean airspace.

JAPANESE FIRM, DPRK MISSILES
On February 26, Japanese police raided Toko Boeki, a Tokyo trading company with ties to the DPRK residents’ association in Japan. The company is suspected of trying to export magnetic measuring instruments that could be used to manufacture missiles to North Korea via a third country.

DPRK MOBILE COMMUNICATIONS
It was reported on February 5 that North Korea’s new 3G cellular network, built by the Egyptian company Orascom Telecom, has been very popular. Orascom Telecom Chairman Naguib Sawiris stated, that in the first two weeks of service, “so far we have about 6,000 applications. The important point is that they are normal citizens, not the privileged or military generals or party higher-ups. For the first time, they have been able to go to a shop and get a mobile phone.”

DPRK SPORTS
North Korea’s soccer squad defeated South Arabia 1-0 as it moved closer to the World Cup finals. The North now has seven points in Group 2, after four games, and is in second place, with only South Korea having more points. North Korea has not been in the World Cup finals since 1966.

KIM JONG IL BIRTHDAY CELEBRATIONS
Kim Jong Il’s 67th birthday was marked on both sides of the DMZ. In the North, ceremonies were held throughout the country on February 16, and special rations were provided to the people of the country, with extra noodles, rice and other grains given out to mark the day.

In South Korea, the Abductees’ Family Union marked the day by flying 100,000 leaflets with North Korean currency and criticisms of the North’s leader. South Korean authorities announced plans to investigate, as it is illegal for South Koreans to possess North Korean bank notes without permission.

DPRK SUCCESSION
More rumors were heard in February concerning who might succeed Kim Jong Il as leader of the North Korean regime. Kim’s youngest son, Kim Jong-un has reportedly registered as a candidate for the March 8 parliamentary elections, which would launch his political career. In addition, an editorial marking Kim Jong Il’s 67th birthday stressed the “inheritance of bloodline of Mount Paektu,” further stoking rumors that one of Kim’s sons may be next in line.

DPRK CENSUS
Results of a preliminary census by the United Nations Population Fund were released in February. According to the data, there were 24.05 million North Koreans as of October last year, with 11.72 million males and 12.33 million females. South Pyongan Province was the most populous, with 4.05 residents. 3.26 million people reside in the North’s capital, Pyongyang. This census, conducted by the United Nations Population Fund, was the first in 15 years to be conducted in North Korea.

Following up on a previous blog post, the Choson Ilbo informs us of the DPRK’s new policies designed to collect “back wages” for North Korean workers in the Kaesong Industrial Zone:

South Korean firms will be ordered to close down or pay fines if they delay pay for North Korean staff at the joint Kaesong Industrial Complex, North Korean authorities reportedly told the firms in November.

The Kaesong Industrial Council on Wednesday said North Korea last November notified South Korea’s Unification Ministry and the Kaesong Industrial Complex management committee of 27-point labor rules in the Kaesong Industrial Complex. Under the rules, South Korean firms will be fined up to US$2,000 if they delay a month’s pay and ordered to suspend operations for 10 days and pay an additional 300 percent of basic pay to staff who have worked for more than 24 hours without a break if they delay pay for two months.

The council worries that now firms in the Kaesong complex are receiving fewer orders due to the recession, they could face heavy costs if the rules are strictly applied.

A total of 93 South Korean firms are currently operating in Kaesong. They are paying about $75, including the minimum wage and social security, per month on average to each North Korean worker.

To get a better idea of the context of this story see a previous post here. 

The full article can be read here:
N.Korea Warned Kaesong Firms Over Staff Pay
Choson Ilbo
3/5/2009

Writing for the American Enterprise Institute, Andrei Lankov argues that neither sanctions nor direct engagement will change the North Korean system.  Quoting from the summary of his paper:

North Korea must be transformed from within. Neither sanctions nor direct engagement will work. What is needed is an effort to increase contacts between North Korea and the outside world through cultural and educational exchanges and through economic cooperation that exposes North Koreans to South Koreans and their vastly better way of life. Increased radio and video penetration combined with support for defectors who can aid the transformation when the Kim Jong Il regime ends will also be necessary.

Dr. Lankov’s paper can be read here.

A PDF can be downloaded here.

Read the rest of this entry »

The global financial crisis/recession is affecting some of the DPRK’s most visible assets. 

The first example comes from the Kaesong Industrial Zone, where South Korean firms are obliged to pay North Korean workers’ wages in $US directly to the North Korean government.  Since the South Korean Won/$US exchange rate has risen significantly in recent months, companies in the Zone have seen their labor costs (denominated in $US) soar.  Since wages are fixed and firms are unable to lay off workers, some have responded by simply not paying wages—which does not affect the workers so much as it does the North Korean government’s finances, since it keeps most of the funds.

Quoting from Radio Free Asia:

Authorities in North Korea have warned South Korean companies in its Kaesong industrial area they must pay workers’ wages or face fines, as many investors begin to feel the effects of the economic downturn.

Lee Lim-dong, secretary general of the Committee of the Association of Enterprises Invested in the Kaesong Industrial Complex, said the issue of unpaid salaries was brought up late last year but had now become a formal demand.

“This time around, official notification was issued to all South Korean enterprises invested in Kaesong, through the Kaesong Industrial District Management Committee (KIDMC),” Lee said.

South Korean businesses invested in Kaesong have already incurred serious losses due to the depreciation of the South Korean won against the U.S. dollar, according to Kim Kyu Chol, head of the Forum for Inter-Korean Relations, a Seoul-based group monitoring inter-Korean business relations.

“They already have to spend 30-45 percent more on labor [because of this],” he said, adding that the lives of South Korean entrepreneurs in the Kaesong economic zone would now be even more difficult.

… 

According to Park Yong-man, director of Green Textile Co.—a South Korean company invested in Kaesong—“The official notification was sent to all South Korean companies in Kaesong on Feb. 10.”

Meanwhile, Kim said, one South Korean electroplating company had already failed to pay its North Korean workers for more than three months and had been suspended.

Seven South Korean companies in Kaesong are currently unable to pay their North Korean workers on time and will soon be in bigger trouble because of the new measures, Kim said.

South Korean companies operating in Kaesong are not allowed to recruit or dismiss North Korean staff directly, and North Korean authorities impose quotas of staffing numbers on them.

In early February, North Korean officials said that salaries of North Korean supervisors watching over the night shift at South Korean enterprises in Kaesong would have to increase by 200-300 percent, putting further pressure on labor costs.

And companies can be suspended from operations for failing to pay their employees for more than a month.

Kim said South Korean companies in Kaesong don’t need more supervisors or clerical workers, which the North Korean side has sought.

“They are already facing a managerial crisis, and a [demanded] 50 percent increase in the number of North Korean managerial staff is pushing it too hard,” he said, adding that South Korean enterprises would find this hard to accept.

Until recently, the Kaesong Industrial District Management Committee (KIDMC), a joint North-South panel overseeing the complex, was responsible for half of the U.S. $10 a month transportation allowance given to North Korean workers in Kaesong.

North Korea demanded as of Jan. 1 that South Korea Kaesong companies must now pay the entire cost.

Now hard bargaining can pay off sometimes, especially for North Korea, but with all that has happened in the Zone recently it seems as if the DPRK actually wants these businesses to leave.  The DPRK’s negotiators are smart enough to know that the pie is shrinking and they naturally want to protect their share, but unfortunately they don’t yet seem to appreciate that their actions will have serious ramifications on future investment in the Zone once the global economy turns the corner.

Example No. 2: Unfortunately, recent economic conditions have also reduced the number of South Korean tourists venturing abroad where they might enjoy diversions such as eating in a North Korean-owned restaurant.

Quoting from Japan Probe:

Ever since a North Korean government restaurant opened in Bangkok two years ago, the Japanese press have been regularly visiting the place with hidden cameras to catch a glimpse of its dinnertime performances. However, it has now been discovered that the restaurant recently went out of business.

Most of its business had come from South Korean tourists, but the weakening of the won and the decline in tourism to Thailand due to the airport protests seem to have dealt a death blow to the restaurant. Attempts to contact North Korea-run restaurants in Cambodia and Vietnam failed, suggesting that those restaurants may have also gone under. It has also been said that a similar North Korean restaurant in China has suffered a big drop in business.

Read the RFA article here:
North Korea Warning Over Labor
Radio Free Asia
J.W. Noh
9/26/2009

On my last visit to North Korea in 2005, fellow Atlanta native Ted Turner was also in Pyongyang (not at the Yangakdo unfortunatley, but the centrally-located Koryo Hotel) working to secure the DMZ as a crane reserve.  It turns out that this effort is fairly well organizaed and funded.  Below, I have attached some articles, names, and organizations involved in this movement:

The International Crane Foundation

Since 1974, ICF has been involved in conservation efforts for the Korean Demilitarized Zone (DMZ), the three mile wide strip of land between the divided neighbors that provides a home during migration or winter for half of the world’s White-naped Cranes and a quarter of the world’s Red-crowned Cranes.

Conservation in Korea

“For more than three decades, I have been coming to Korea to see the cranes that spend the winter along the DMZ. About one-third of the world’s 2,500 Red-crowned Cranes depend on the DMZ and the nearby Civilian Controlled Zone (CCZ) as their only remaining sanctuary on the peninsula. The Cheorwon Basin in the central highlands has the greatest numbers of cranes, while smaller flocks live in the Yuen Cheon valley, the lower reaches of the Imjin River, and the tidal flats around Kangwha Island.

The Red-crowned Crane is an auspicious symbol of good luck and long life throughout the Orient and cranes worldwide are a symbol of peace. Now perhaps the Red-crowned Crane can be a flagship for the conservation of the DMZ.

I have always tried to help my Korean colleagues in their efforts to save that priceless strip of land that’s carpeted by a grasslands, wetlands, and forests restored by the creative forces of nature over more that a half-century. Although it has been exciting to see modernization sweep it’s magic wand over Korea, it is alarming that humans now have such power to transform landscapes so quickly.

If the remaining natural landscapes of the DMZ and the CCZ are to be saved for nature, Korean conservationists from all walks of life must join together in a united front to negotiate with those more interested in development. This is now possible through a movement started in 1996 by two Korean Americans, Dr. Ke Chung Kim (a scholar) and Mr. Seung-ho Lee (a businessman).

To promote the conservation of the DMZ, they created a non-governmental organization called the DMZ Forum. I am honored to serve on the Board of Directors.

Under the leadership of Mr. Hall Healy (an environmental planner), the DMZ has created a Coalition for the Conservation of the DMZ. Although this Coalition had its birth in the USA, its operation will be “Koreanized” with leadership from an effective and prestigious Korean citizen and supported by a coalition of individuals and organizations primarily from Korea, but also from other nations. Only through the power of partnership, can these treasures of nature from “The Land of the Morning Calm” be saved.”

Recently, ICF held an event.  Here is the email they sent out (h/t Mike):

For years, hundreds of the magnificent Red-crowned Cranes wintered in lowland wetlands and organically-maintained agricultural fields in the DPRK.  With the rise of chemical fertilization after the Korean War through its alliance with the USSR, crops were plentiful in the DPRK, and the field gleanings provided sustenance for the cranes.  With the collapse of the USSR, the cheap source of fertilizer dried up, and after two decades of chemical dependence the organic farming methods had been lost.  Hungry humans foraged for food where the cranes had once wintered.  The cranes moved south, in and around the DMZ and the Civilian Controlled Zone (CCZ).  These two zones, however, have been targeted by developers as potential sites for future cities.  The plan for the re-introduction of wintering cranes in the DPRK addresses teaching the local people organic farming methods anew and relies on using captive cranes to attract wild cranes during their autumn migration.

Through collaboration among colleagues of the Korean University in Tokyo, the State Academy of Sciences in Pyongyan, Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK, or North Korea), BirdLife International, the International Crane Foundation, and Pisan Cooperative Farm of the DPRK, work is underway to restore the Red-crowned Cranes as winter visitors on the Anbyon Plain located in DPRK.  The project began in the spring and summer of 2008, and it is hoped that it will lead to communication between the DPRK and the Republic of Korea on the conservation of red-crowned Cranes in both nations.

From the event’s web page:

Through collaboration among colleagues of the Korean University in Tokyo, the State Academy of Sciences in Pyongyan, Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK, or North Korea), BirdLife International, the International Crane Foundation, and Pisan Cooperative Farm of the DPRK, work is underway to restore the Red-crowned Cranes as winter visitors on the Anbyon Plain located in DPRK.  The project began in the spring and summer of 2008, and it is hoped that it will lead to communication between the DPRK and the Republic of Korea on the conservation of red-crowned Cranes in both nations.

For years, hundreds of the magnificent Red-crowned Cranes wintered in lowland wetlands and organically-maintained agricultural fields in the DPRK.  With the rise of chemical fertilization after the Korean War through its alliance with the USSR, crops were plentiful in the DPRK, and the field gleanings provided sustenance for the cranes.  With the collapse of the USSR, the cheap source of fertilizer dried up, and after two decades of chemical dependence the organic farming methods had been lost.  Hungry humans foraged for food where the cranes had once wintered.  The cranes moved south, in and around the DMZ and the Civilian Controlled Zone (CCZ).  These two zones, however, have been targeted by developers as potential sites for future cities.  The plan for the re-introduction of wintering cranes in the DPRK addresses teaching the local people organic faming methods anew and relies on using captive cranes to attract wild cranes during their autumn migration.

More links:
The DMZ Forum web page

DMZ Coalition

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