North Korean Economy Watch

This weekend a Japanese newspaper published an interview with Kim Jong-nam, Kim Jong-il’s eldest son, living in Macao.

Kim Jong-nam claims that his father is actually opposed to hereditary succession in the DPRK but is forced to promote it because there is no other political institution that can guarantee “stability” of the both DPRK’s incumbent interest groups and North-East Asia’s political balance.

Kim Jong-nam also refuted claims that his life was at risk; commented on the shelling of Yonpyong; called the recent currency re-nomination a failure; and endorsed economic liberalization in the DPRK.

Kim Jong-nam ‘s comments were widely reported in English.  You can read more below:

N. Korean leader opposed hereditary power transfer, eldest son says
Yonhap
1/28/2011

Kim Jong-Il opposed succession: eldest son
AFP
1/28/2011

Kim Jong Il Was Against Succession
Daily NK
Chris Green
1/28/2011

Read the rest of this entry »

UPDATE 3: The JoongAng Daily (2/12/2011) reports on comments made by Robert King:

King explained that in the past, the U.S. had agreed to give North Korea 500,000 tons in food aid, but was only able to give 170,000 tons as North Korea refused the rest and ordered foreigners who had entered North Korea to deliver the aid to leave.

The envoy also said that it has not yet been decided whether the U.S. will grant food aid to the North and that three prerequisites must be fulfilled if it does.

The three conditions, he explained, are whether a real demand for food truly exists in North Korea, whether the North’s need for food is on the same level as other countries in need of aid, and whether monitoring of the aid will be securely guaranteed. Only when these three prerequisites are met can the U.S. grant aid, King said.

UPDATE 2: According to the JoongAng Daily (2/9/2011) the North Koreans have made an official request for food aid to the US government:

North Korean deputy ambassador to the UN, Han Sang-ryol, requested U.S. food aid last month through Robert King, the U.S. special envoy for North Korean human rights, a diplomatic source told the JoongAng Ilbo yesterday.

Local analysts suspect that King, who is currently in Seoul, informed the South Korean government of the request and is discussing a joint response to it.

“Ambassador Han met King in New York on Jan. 14 and requested large-scale U.S. food aid for the North,” said the diplomatic source in Washington.

It is the first time in years that a behind-the-scenes diplomatic discussion between Pyongyang and Washington on aid has come to the surface. U.S. food aid to the North has been suspended since March 2009 after the Kim Jong-il regime rejected a U.S. proposal to increase the number of Korean-speaking food-distribution monitors to make sure aid was getting to the public.

Han told King that the North was willing to enhance international monitoring of food aid “as much as the U.S. wants,” the source said.

King, who came to Seoul on Sunday, started meetings with Seoul officials yesterday, including Wi Sung-lac, the top envoy on North Korean nuclear issues. At a brief media conference after the meeting with Wi, King did not elaborate on the purpose of his visit or his discussion with the South Korean envoy, saying only it was “very good, very serious and a very thoughtful discussion.”

When asked whether food assistance to the North was on the agenda, King said they “talked about a lot of issues.”

“[It is] extremely important for the U.S., as we pursue our policies toward North Korea, to coordinate with the government of South Korea,” King said. “We have a close working relationship, we are able to work together well on issues, we share our analysis, we share our ideas in terms of making progress.”

The official United States stance, as U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Kurt Campbell said earlier this month, is that it does not have a plan to resume food aid to the North for now.

“The U.S. does not think the North has met conditions to get U.S. food aid,” the source said.

And even if Washington decides to resume aid, it will take time because of congressional procedures, the source said. But some analysts see the possibility of change, citing some opinions in the U.S. State Department in favor of engaging the North with aid to sway its attitude on other issues, including denuclearization.

UPDATE 1: According to the Donga Ilbo (2/6/2011):

The U.S.-based Radio Free Asia says the U.S. government and nongovernmental organizations are discussing the resumption of food aid to North Korea.

Quoting diplomatic sources in the U.S., the broadcaster said Washington has not decided to resume food aid to Pyongyang but is having many talks and discussions on the issue.

Voice of America said Friday that the World Food Program and the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization, both of which are under U.S. influence, also plan an additional survey of the North`s food situation for about a month from Feb. 10.

In an interview, Dr. Kisan Gunjal of the food organization said he will survey the North’s food security and crop situations from Feb. 10 to March 12 at Pyongyang’s official invitation.

In a phone interview with The Dong-A Ilbo, an official at a South Korean aid group said, “The U.S. has asked South Korean non-governmental organizations about North Korea’s crop and food supply situations in 2011 since the North’s artillery provocation on Yeonpyeong Island in November.”

Washington, however, remains officially cautious. U.S. State Department spokesman Philip Crowley told a news briefing Monday that the U.S. government has no immediate plans to provide humanitarian aid to the North.

ORIGINAL POST: According to the Donga Ilbo (1/31/2011) the US and DPRK are talking food aid once more:

The U.S. and North Korea have begun their third round of food diplomacy, with Washington considering resuming food aid to Pyongyang.

The U.S. has halted food aid to the North twice since its first provision in 1996 after blaming Pyongyang for diverting the aid.

The North has always asked for food aid first since North Korean leader Kim Jong Il confronted a series of crises in the early 1990s, when the former Soviet Union and China stopped economic assistance to the Stalinist country.

His father and the North`s founder Kim Il Sung died in 1994. When the North was devastated by floods and other natural disasters nationwide, Kim Jong Il ordered state cadres to beg the U.S. for help.

The North Korean Foreign Ministry then formed a committee for flood damage and went hat in hand to Washington. The Clinton administration provided 19,500 tons of food through the World Food Program in 1996, expecting the North to implement the 1994 Agreed Framework and be docile in talks for the repatriation of remains of American soldiers killed in action in the Korean War.

Washington increased its food aid from 177,000 tons in 1997 to 695,000 tons in 1999. In 2000, a joint communiqué between the North and the U.S. was signed.

North Korea, however, diverted the food aid in ignoring U.S. and international principles for humanitarian aid.

As public opinion in the U.S. worsened over the assistance, the George W. Bush administration slashed the aid volume from 350,000 tons in 2001 to 40,000 tons in 2003. The U.S. Congress demanded greater transparency in the distribution of the food aid in 2004, when it passed the North Korean Human Rights Act.

Rejecting the demand, Pyongyang expelled World Food Program staff in 2005. Washington opted not to provide food aid to Pyongyang in 2006.

Flexing its muscles in November 2006 by conducting its first nuclear test, North Korea again requested U.S. aid in 2008. The Bush administration, which was nearing the end of its term, chose to sit at the negotiating table with the North and offered 500,000 tons of food aid through the World Food Program.

The North received 169,000 tons of food by expanding the areas where food distribution is monitored and agreeing to allow more Korean-speaking monitoring personnel.

In early 2009, Pyongyang decided to test the newly inaugurated Obama administration by launching a long-range rocket and preparing for a second nuclear test. In March that year, the North expelled humanitarian aid groups, saying it would not be able to keep its promise of distribution transparency.

In fall last year, North Korea unveiled its uranium enrichment program and showed its centrifuges to the U.S. in a virtual threat to conduct its third nuclear test with uranium bombs if Washington failed to provide food.

What the U.S. will eventually do is attracting interest since South Korea is opposed to aid to the North.

Read the full stories below:
Pyongyang asks U.S. to restore food aid: source
JoongAng Daily
Kim Jung-wook, Moon Gwang-lip
2/9/2011

US, N. Korea begin 3rd round of food diplomacy
Donga Ilbo
1/31/2011

Radio Free Asia: US, NGOs discussing food aid to NK
Donga Ilbo
2/6/2011

According to the Daily NK:

Kim Chaek Iron and Steel Complex is unable to operate properly due to shortages of materials and fuel, according to sources. The Complex is North Korea’s main producer of “Juche steel”, treated as an economic symbol of self-revitalization and mentioned in this year’s Common Editorial.

Additionally, since the dire state of Kim Chaek Iron and Steel Complex has an influence over other related enterprises and factories in the region, the entire economy of Chongjin is reportedly in substantial difficulties.

A source from Chongjin reported today, “Almost every factory and enterprise in Chongjin is in hibernation. Even Kim Chaek Iron and Steel Complex and Chongjin Steel Mill, both of which had been running to some extent, cannot play their proper roles and are frozen.”

The Kim Chaek Iron and Steel Complex, employing 25,000 workers, is where “Juche steel” is produced with high energy anthracite instead of imported crude oil and coke, hence its being a symbol of the Juche idea. The nearby Chongjin Steel Mill employs approximately another 8,000 people.

The North Korean authorities stress that the Complex is a model factory. Therefore, as the New Year’s Common Editorial is released annually, so Rodong Shinmun releases “The Kim Chaek Complex Letter” to encourage production increases at every factory in the country.

However, the reality is that operations at the Kim Chaek Complex have dropped to less than 50 percent of last year’s, according to the source, while the Chongjin Steel Mill is operating at around 30 percent. This is because they have not been able to procure materials and fuel due to the economic crisis.

The source explained, “Even when smoke is coming from all six chimneys in the sintering factory, it is not enough for the main blast furnace, and even when the Party urges them on, there are not enough materials for half the furnace capacity.” He went one, “That much is only possible because cadres from the central and provincial committees have been dispatched to the spot.”

According to the source, the sintering section of the complex produces sintered materials mixed with iron ore, lime and coke; the core materials of “Juche” steel.

He added, “When workers see smoking chimneys at the Complex in the morning, they are relieved, because the factories frequently stop working altogether.”

“As long as the sintering furnace is working, the main furnace is also running, and the steel factory and rolling factory also work,” he explained, adding, “Therefore, when they find chimneys at the sintering factory without smoke, citizens sigh that ‘The furnace died again’.”

The current freezing weather and lack of electricity are other decisive elements in production difficulties.

The source said, “The ore pipeline from Musan is now frozen solid, so supplies of ore cannot be carried here in time. They carry them by train, but due to frequent blackouts only a few freight cars can move. So people complain ‘How can we feed the furnace with that?’”

In this situation, related enterprises and factories have also been suspended and, accordingly, all economic activities have shrunk.

The source said, “When the Complex runs, some food, oil, sugar and soap can be supplied to workers, markets in the vicinity can be activated, and this influences Chongjin downtown markets.” In short, due to the suspension of the operation in the Complex, workers’ lives have grown worse.

Another source noted, “Last month, the furnace (2,000 workers), sintering section (1,500), and coking (1,000), provided workers with a little bit of food, so workers from other sections envied them. But this month the situation for all sections is the same; poor.”

Since the Kim Chaek Complex is treated centrally as a symbol of the North Korean economy, its production rate implies that the overall economic situation in North Korea continues to decline.

Read the full story here:
“Model” Kim Chaek Complex in Dire Straits
Daily NK
Im Jeong Jin
1/31/2011

Three sets of pictures related to the DPRK:

Iron Facebook Curtain: The first image obtained via Aid Watch presents a December 2010 map of Facebook connections.  Notice anyone missing?  (Egypt is there!)

You can see a high resolution version of this image here.

DPRK at night and economic growth: The second image obtained from Aid Watch compares growth in electricity coverage at night between the two Koreas.  This is the first image I have seen like this which makes side-by-side comparisons:

Click image for larger version

I overlaid these images to Google Earth to determine areas of relative growth and decline.  Surprisingly, Pyongyang and Chongjin showed dimmer and smaller electricity signals, indicating lighting was more prolific in 1992 than in 2008.  I would have expected their electricity signals to be just as, if not more, pronounced in 2008.

The areas of growth, where electricity signals are more (modestly) pronounced, include Kaesong (개성), Huichon (희천), Songgan (성간), Thaechon (태천), and Anju (안주).  Most of these are somewhat expected since they have received much publicized foreign (Kaesong) and domestic investment, particularly in power station development.

Also worth noting are the growth of lighting in South Korea and China.

Photoshop Fun: The third set of interesting images come from a Chinese reader who sends along these images from Korea magazine,  the monthly picture magazine published by the DPRK (See e-version here).  The images have been altered to give the impression of plenty.  Below see images of photoshopped goats, swimmers, and bread:

According to the new Noland/Haggard blog:

The two panels below report data on prices for rice and corn. The charts indicate that prices have risen to roughly 35-40 percent of their pre-reform trend line, suggesting that excess growth in the money supply has undone a significant share of the reform. And grain price inflation has accelerated significantly, from an annual rate of 35-40 percent before the reform, to 500-600 percent over the past year.

Admittedly grain prices are rising worldwide, so the observed increase in grain prices may contain an element of relative price increase, but if food prices are interpreted as a proxy for the overall price level, these data suggest a rapidly growing money supply and accelerating inflation in North Korea.

Pictured above: Nampho Glass Bottle Factory visited by Kim Jong-il

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
(NK Brief No. 11-01-26)
1/26/2011

According to North Korean media, Kim Jong Il began this year’s onsite instruction with a visit to the Nampo Glass Bottle Factory. The January 20th issue of the Choson Sinbo also ran an editorial stating that “These days, in our country, improving the lives of the people is especially emphasized.” It also noted that Kim Jong Il’s first onsite visit of the year was to a site important to improving people’s standard of living. The paper boasted that great efforts were being made in the development of light industry — especially factories producing daily-use goods and food products — and revealed that the bottle factory in Nampo will play an important role in meeting the increased countrywide demands for packaging from factories large and small.

Despite this praise, the reality is that the people of North Korea are suffering ever-worsening economic conditions. Just as South Korea is in the middle of a cold spell, the North has suffered chilling conditions ever since the end of December. The Korean Central News Agency reported on January 22, “The cold-weather conditions are expected to continue until the end of January,” and, “this cold spell is causing more than a little damage to the lives of the people and to spring farming preparations.”

As the cold spell drags on, their hardship will continue. North Korea is ill-prepared to deal with such cold weather; freezing pipes make it difficult for the people to access fresh water, while food and firewood are in short supply. Hunger and cold are exacerbated this winter because those without access to firewood or heating oil are also faced with an environment devoid of wild plants or animals.

Power shortages have also grown more severe in the new year. On January 20, Open Radio for North Korea (ORNK) reported that an area of the Yanggang Province has been without electricity since the first of the month. Even Pyongyang has been experiencing power difficulties, with electricity only available to most residents for 1~2 hours each day. ORNK reported that “recently in North Korea, students and parents have been burdened with supplying firewood for school heating, while the prices of coal and wood are skyrocketing in the markets.”

The cost of food has also shot through the roof. Rice, corn, pork, and other staple foods are becoming increasingly more expensive. Young-wha Lee, a spokesperson for the Japanese human rights organization Rescue the North Korean People! Urgent Action Network (RENK), announced on January 17 that a source inside North Korea had reported a 500 Won jump in the price of rice within Pyongyang, from 1,400 Won per kilogram on the January 7 to 1,900 Won within 3~4 days. Corn jumped from 750 to 950 Won, and pork was up from just under 4,000 Won to its current price at around 5,000 Won. Gasoline now costs 3,500 Won.

According to a South Korean online source for news on North Korea, Daily NK, one can see the impact of inflation by taking notice of the price gap of around 200 Won per kilogram of rice in Pyongyang and rice in rural areas (North Pyongan Province’s Sinuiju and Ryanggang Province’s Hyesan, in particular). It is noteworthy that prices are shooting up in January, rather than during the lean season of March and April.

Good Friends, a South Korean-based humanitarian organization, has also relayed reports of inflation from sources within North Korea. It has reported that rice was selling in Pyongyang for as much as 2,100 Won per kilogram on January 7, significantly more than the 1,600 Won per kilogram reported at the end of last year. Prices continued to hover around 2,000 Won until recent rations eased shortages and brought the price back down to around 1,500 Won. As North Korean organizations and social units distribute these overdue holiday rations, there has been a fall in food prices.

However, these rations were not seen in all areas of the North, and in those regions where residents were not provided food, prices remain high. Rice in Hamheung jumped from 1,500 Won per kilogram on January 1 to 1,800 Won just one week later. On January 7, similar prices were seen in Chongjin (1,750 Won) and Sinuiju (1,800 Won). Ten days later, rice in Chongjin had climbed to 1,980 Won, and was threatening to break the 2,000 Won barrier. Corn in Pyongyang was selling for 950 Won per kilogram on January 7, while it cost 780 Won in Chongjin and 850 Won in Hamheung, Sinuiju, and Pyongsong. By January 17, corn averaged between 750 and 800 Won. Only in Pyongyang, agricultural regions, and other areas receiving rations had prices fallen to 600 Won per kilogram.

According Good Friends, grain prices in the North have shot up this year because several Party officials in charge of grain imports are behind schedule with incoming shipments, and the rising value of the US dollar and Chinese yuan have driven up the cost of overseas purchases.

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
(NK Brief No. 11-01-19)
1/19/2011

North Korean media outlets have been highlighting production of goods in the Pyongyang Textile Mill, the Sunheung Food Factory and other sites that represent the North’s light industry sector, while mines, power plants and other factories in regions throughout the country exhibit an atmosphere of productivity as labor is poured into an ‘offensive’ for increased output. In the first week of the year, after the New Year’s Joint Editorial was published, assemblies were held in cities and regions around the country in support of a labor revolution and in an effort to foster light industry. Lately, similar meetings have been held in factories and on cooperative farms.

North Korean authorities are also emphasizing the need to increase the quality of consumables, calling it a patriotic endeavor. An article on January 12 in the Korean Workers’ Party newspaper, the Rodong Sinmun, was titled ‘Raising the Quality of People’s Consumable Goods is True Patriotism.’ The article emphasized the need to reform consumable goods production in order to successfully improve the lives of the people, something the regime has publicly promised to do this year.

The paper also stressed that the quality of consumable goods is most important to this effort, and that “decisively increasing the quality of consumables” is an esteemed and patriotic task. It called on all workers to focus on improving the quality of each and every good they produce, stating that it was necessary in this “age of development” to advance the people and the country.

The article said that the Party was prioritizing the improvement in quality, and that while it would take “decisive” steps to boost production numbers, improving quality was absolutely necessary, as well. It appears that the regime’s focus on quality improvement has two meanings. First, it is an effort to show the Party’s devotion to the people. The newspaper stated that the quality issue was not just an industrial issue, but rather, that the Party saw it as an issue about the people, and pointed to the tireless efforts of workers at the Samilpo Special Goods Factory, the Kangseo Pharmaceutical Factory, the Sinuiju Cosmetics Factory, the Pyongyang Gum Factory and the Ryongseong Food Plant.

Second, improving the quality of goods is a way to show patriotism. The article encouraged workers to increase their efforts by stating that “popular goods that are favorably received by the people and that are internationally competitive can only [be produced] through the efforts of truly patriotic people,” and it pointed to the “myriad food products” coming out of the potato processing plant in Daehongdan as an example. “Truly patriotic people” think about the country’s development before producing even one product,” according to the article, and a true patriot considers whether each and every product is internationally competitive.

Pictured above: Ontan Worker’s District, Onsong (Google Earth)

According ot the Daily NK:

In advance of next week’s lunar New Year’s Day holiday, National Security Agency agents are concentrating on getting together things for the holiday from households of those whose family members have crossed into China or South Korea.

Exploitation by the NSA or other powerful state apparatus is exceedingly common, of course, and the obtainment of necessities for holidays such as Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il’s birthdays, the Korean thanksgiving day (Chuseok) and lunar New Year’s Day are often covered via exploitation of the people. The difference this time, however, is that the specific targets are the families of defectors.

A source from North Hamkyung Province told The Daily NK today, “NSA agents in charge of northern border regions including Onsung have been engrossed in preparations for the holidays and generating private benefits, targeting smugglers and households with family members who have crossed into China or South Korea.”

The source explained, “Modes of exploitation by agents of the NSA and People’s Safety Ministry and cadres of the Party or prosecutors have been varied of late. They win houses which have problems over to their side and then get them to give certain things.”

The source said that as the lunar New Year’s Day comes closer, these moves have become more active and transparent. “NSA agents visit all of these houses and force them, or sometimes beg for things. They are no different from thieves, just without a knife.”

According to the source, the Conspiracy Research Office of the NSC in Onsung, North Hamkyung Province, which employs 25 agents, has allotted each agent items to get from their district.

There are two sets of items: one set is ten bottles of liquor, 5kg of pork, 20 packs of expensive cigarettes called “Yeomyung,” and the other set contains 20kg of gasoline, a certain amount of fruit and candy, and bottles of oil. Each agent has to select one set.

According to Onsung Jangmadang standards, a bottle of liquor can be bought for 4,000 won, 1kg of pork for 5,000 won, a pack of “Yeomyung” for 6,000 won, 1kg of gasoline 3,000 won, and a bottle of oil for 5,000 won.

In Ontan workers-district within Onsung, there are three agents. The goods assigned to them are also unaffordable, but only defector families have to provide them, the source said.

The source explained, “When an agent visits one’s home, they won’t leave until the host has set up a table of drinks for him. After drinking some, the agent coaxes them, ‘Have you got some news from the South?’ ‘Are you getting money well?’ or ‘When you get a call next time, you should grumble that the situation is hard, so that they will send more money.’”

Sometimes, agents call for bribes for their own family events, too. The source said, “While talking, agents hint furtively that there will be a family event and call for something for that, saying, ‘There will be nothing bad for you if you help out.’”

“Agents say openly that, ‘If more money is delivered, we can live well; it’s is a good thing, and a way to maintain socialism.’ They only need so much as to smell money and they come running,” the source complained.

Due to possible revenge from agents, people cannot complain about the situation and have to provide them with the things they demand, according to the source, who added, “However, the effect works only at that moment when they get the goods. When a problem occurs for these defector families, they are nowhere to be seen.”

Read the full story here:
Defector Families Are Moneybags for NSA Agents
Daily NK
Im Jeong Jin
1/27/2011

According to the Daily NK:

High level North Korean cadres are visiting a casino in the far northeast of the country, disguising their identities so as to avoid government regulations which forbid them from entering, a defector-led NGO has revealed.

Reporting the news, an NK Intellectuals Solidarity inside source explained yesterday, “Recently, cases of high level North Korean cadres disguising their identities to enter Orakjang Casino, which is in the Emperor Hotel in Rasun City, have been occurring frequently.”

The Emperor Hotel was established in 2000 by Emperor Group, a Hong Kong-based property developer. With around 100 rooms, bars, cafes, an indoor swimming pool, sauna, night club, sports center and a fine sea view, the hotel, which cost $64 million to build, employs around 500 people, including a number of North Korean women.

According to the source, while the hotel was regularly frequented by Chinese tourists and officials when it opened, it closed down at the end of 2004 after one official, acting independently, squandered a fortune in public funds there.

However, seizing the opportunity presented by Kim Jong Il’s visits to China last year, the hotel reopened and, according to the source, has recently been doing well off Russian traders, among others.

On this, the source explained, “One of the conditions placed on the opening of the hotel was that North Koreans would not be allowed to enter, and at the beginning their entry seemed to have been thoroughly prohibited,” adding that therefore, “However, as the number of Chinese traders going to the casino increased, so high North Korean cadres doing business with the Chinese and wealthy North Koreans disguising their identities also entered.

The North Koreans apparently pretend to be Korean-Chinese when they enter the casino, where some reportedly gamble away as much as $10,000 per day.

Because North Korean enterprises and factories are unable to operate properly due to a lack of raw materials and capital, average cadres and staff go to gamble mostly to relieve their boredom, the source explained.

Read the full story here:
Casino Luring in Bored North Koreans
Daily NK
Cho Jong-ik
1/27/2011

According to KBS:

South Korea says it plans to implement during the first half of the year a registration system for South Korean firms that trade goods with North Korea.

An official from the Unification Ministry in Seoul said Monday that revisions must be sought on the law governing inter-Korean exchanges and cooperation in order to introduce the registration system.

The official said that the government will conclude such legal revisions within the first half of the year.

The ministry plans to propose a related bill before May in hopes of winning parliamentary approval for the plan by June.

The ministry had unveiled plans to introduce such a system when it briefed President Lee Myung-bak late last year on its key policies for 2011.

Additional Information:

1. The DPRK is working to bypass ROK trade restrictions.

2. The South Korean government is investigating companies suspected of trading with the DPRK.

Read the full story here:
S.Korea Seeks Registration System for Firms Trading with NK
KBS
1/24/2011