North Korean Economy Watch

In addition to the Haggard/Noland book release, there were a couple of other interesting North Korea events in Washington DC this week that I wanted to point out:

1. Korea Economic Institute: The Markets of Pyongyang
John Everard, UK Ambassador to the DPRK (2006-2008)

-Read his paper here (PDF).
-See his power point presentation here (PDF).
-See his full presentation in three parts: Part 1, Part 2, Part 3.

2. US-Korea Institute at SAIS: Silent Partners: Chinese Joint Ventures in North Korea
Drew Thompson, Director of China Studies and Starr Senior Fellow at The Nixon Center

-The event web page is here.
-Read an executive summary here
-Read the paper here.

Both papers are well worth reading.

Pictured Above: Pongchon Coal Mine (Google Earth)

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
NK Brief No. 11-01-18
1/28/2011

The DPRK Workers’ Party’s newspaper, the Rodong Sinmun, recently featured a front-page editorial urging the North Korean people to increase coal production. On January 26, the KCNA reiterated the call, reporting that the newspaper editorial highlighted fertilizer, cotton, electricity, and steel as products suffering from a lack of coal, and that “coal production must be quickly increased in the Jik-dong Youth Mine, the Chongsong Youth Mine, the Ryongdeung Mine, the Jaenam Mine, Bongchon Mine [Pongchon Mine] and other mines with good conditions and large deposits.”

The editorial also emphasized that “priority must be placed on the equipment and materials necessary for coal production,” and, “the Cabinet, national planning committee, government ministries and central organizations need to draft plans for guaranteeing equipment and materials and must unconditionally and strongly push to provide,” ensuring that the mines have everything they need. It also called on all people of North Korea to assist in mining endeavors and to support the miners, adding that those responsible for providing safety equipment for the mines and miners step up efforts to ensure that all necessary safety gear is available.

In the recent New Year’s Joint Editorial, coal, power, steel and railways were named as the four ‘vanguard industries’ of the people’s economy. Of the four, coal took the top spot, and all of North Korea’s other media outlets followed up the editorial with articles focusing on the coal industry. On January 15, Voice of America radio quoted some recent Chinese customs statistics, revealing that “North Korea exported almost 41 million tons of coal to China between January and November of last year, surpassing the 36 million tons exported [to China] in 2009.” It was notable that only 15.1 tons were exported between January and August, but that 25.5 tons were sent across the border between August and November.

North Korea’s coal exports to China earned it 340 million USD last year, making the coal industry a favorite of Pyongyang’s economic and political elites. Increasing coal production is boosting output from some of the North’s electrical power plants, while exports to China provide much-needed foreign capital. However, even in Pyongyang, where the electrical supply is relatively good, many houses lack heating and experience long black-outs. Open North Korea Radio, a shortwave radio station based in the South, reported on January 24, “As electrical conditions in Pyongyang worsen, now no heating is available.” Farming villages can find nearby timber to use as firewood, but because prices are so high in Pyongyang, even heating has become difficult. Some in the city even wish for rural lifestyles, just for the access to food and heat.

According to the Choson Ilbo:

The most important dates for North Koreans born since the 1970s are the birthdays of former leader Kim Il-sung on April 15 and present leader Kim Jong-il on Feb. 16. North Koreans may forget their parents’ birthdays but they always remember the leaders’, because that is when gifts of food and other daily necessities are doled out and a festive mood prevails throughout the country.

But now, due to international sanctions and the spread of grassroots capitalism, the traditional “gift politics” may be coming to an end as the regime can no longer afford to dole out grace and favor.

Gift Packages

The candy and cakes that were doled out on Kim Il-sung’s birthday were traditionally much better quality than those available in ordinary shops. Nylon and tetron fabric were also distributed, much more highly prized than the normally available synthetic cotton, mixed-spun or vinalon fabrics that shrink in the wash. Parents who can barely afford to clothe their children have no choice but to be grateful to Kim Il-sung.

On the two birthdays, a bottle of liquor, five eggs, two day’s supply of milled rice, 1-2 kg of meat, and cigarettes are distributed to every household. These are precious commodities not normally available to everyone. Thanks to these gift packages, the birthdays of Kim Il-sung and Kim Jong-il have long become established as major holidays.

The elite of the Workers Party are given luxurious houses, luxury cars like Mercedes and Swiss-made Omega gold watches. Quality wristwatches are given to ordinary people who have distinguished themselves meritorious and are preserved as heirlooms.

Economic Changes

But amid a food shortage and international sanctions, the regime is having to rethink the practice. And markets are booming there now despite the regime’s attempt to suppress them, so North Koreans can buy Chinese-made candies and cakes and other necessities without much difficulties. This makes the leaders’ birthday gifts look not so special any more.

The quality of gifts is also falling year by year. Senior officials, unable to live on gifts and official supplies alone, enrich themselves through corruption. An increasing number of officials secretly hoard hundreds of thousands of dollars, and it is therefore natural that the leader’s gifts lose their luster.

January 8 was the birthday of Kim Jong-il’s son and heir Jong-un. Although there had been rumors that the regime would designate Kim junior’s birthday as a national holiday and hold lavish celebrations, it passed quietly.

The North designated Kim Jong-il’s birthday as a national holiday quite a few years after he made an official debut in 1974. It was also only when his power base was cemented that he began to dole out gifts to celebrate his birthday. While Kim Il-sung was alive, he gave gifts only to close associates as a gesture of courtesy to his father. So long as Kim Jong-il is alive, therefore, chances are that there will be no gifts to the public or nationwide celebrations on Jong-un’s birthday.

This story is reported every year for the leader’s birthday. Here is a link to previous posts on this topic.

Read the full story here:
N.Korean Regime’s ‘Gift Politics’ Starts to Lose Its Luster
Choson Ilbo
2/2/2011

According to Reuters:

North Korea was the supplier of a cache of defective weapons sold to Burundi’s army by a Ukrainian firm, said Western diplomats familiar with the case that has riled Burundi’s anti-corruption body.

The weapons deal with Burundi appeared to be a violation of the international ban on North Korean weapons exports which the U.N. Security Council imposed on Pyongyang in June 2009 after its second nuclear test, the diplomats told Reuters on condition of anonymity.

The case involved the supply of some 60 Chinese-made .50-calibre machine guns to Burundi by a Ukrainian firm called Cranford Trading, the diplomats said. The weapons, which were defective, were sold to the firm by North Korea, they added.

Diplomats say Pyongyang continues to try to skirt the arms embargo. Last year South Africa informed the Security Council’s sanctions committee about a seizure of North Korean arms bound for Central Africa.

The expanded sanctions were aimed at cutting off North Korea’s arms sales, a vital export that was estimated to earn the destitute state more than $1 billion a year.

Some facts about the Burundi weapons deal became known late last year when the country’s anti-corruption watchdog went public about irregularities it found. It said that the arms had been defective and that Burundi had been overcharged.

A report on a state audit of the deal, seen by Reuters, concluded that Cranford Trading provided Burundi’s army defective military material with the complicity of former Defense Minister Germain Niyoyanka, current army chief Godefroid Niyombare and his deputy Diomede Ndegeya.

The auditors’ report said that the bidding offer was $3.075 million, while the amount in the contract was for $3.388 million. A further $1.186 million was paid in transport fees, even though such fees were not agreed in the contract.

The auditors concluded that the defense ministry had spent a great deal of money on defective material and recommended the prosecution of all people involved on suspicion of graft.

North Korea was not mentioned in the auditors’ report.

Several officials at Burundi’s U.N. mission in New York declined to comment when contacted by Reuters.

NO CERTIFICATE OF ORIGIN

“The weapons were transferred by China to North Korea, which then sold them to Cranford,” a diplomat said, adding that the official documentation for the deal had been incomplete.

“There was no certificate of origin of the weapons, which is necessary to comply with international conventions,” the diplomat added. Another diplomat confirmed the remarks.

The contract between Burundi’s defense ministry and Cranford Trading covered the period between October 2008 through 2010. It was not clear how much North Korea would have received when it sold the defective arms to Cranford Trading.

It was not possible to track down Cranford Trading in Ukraine, since the company was not readily accessible in any public lists. Ukraine’s U.N. mission did not respond to an e-mailed query about Cranford and the arms transaction.

It was not clear when China transferred the weapons to North Korea, or who in China was responsible, or whether the Chinese government had knowledge of the deal.

The U.N. arms embargo does not ban the sale of small arms to Pyongyang, though it does require exporters to notify the Security Council’s North Korea sanctions committee in advance about any small-arms sales to Pyongyang.

If the transfer took place after the latest round of U.N. sanctions were approved in June 2009, the exporter would have been required to notify the sanctions committee.

A spokesman for China’s U.N. mission was not available for comment.

The diplomats said the sanctions committee has not been notified about the Burundi case.

Read the full story here:
Defective Burundi weapons came from N.Korea
Reuters
Louis Charbonneau
2/1/2011

Leonid Petrov writes in the Asia Times:

After two months, an exhibition in Moscow of North Korean graphics, mosaics and embroidery is coming to a close. Oddly entitled “And Water Flows Beneath the Ice”, the exhibition was a major project initiated and hosted by Russian entrepreneurs at the trendy Winzavod Gallery, a revamped wine factory in central-eastern Moscow.

All the pictures came from the Mansudae Art Studio in Pyongyang, a government-run enterprise that employs more than 1,000 artists to create art for export.

The late (and eternal) North Korean president, Kim Il-sung, is known to have once said, “Abstraction in art is death,” leaving no choice for North Korean artists but to embrace socialist realism as their method.

Russians, who still remember when this artistic trend was the only one permitted by the Communist Party, were given a chance to refresh their memory exactly 20 years after the collapse of the Soviet Union. It is no surprise that many felt a sense of familiarity and at times nostalgia for while visiting the unusual exhibition.

During a short trip to Moscow last month, I met with colleagues, Russian scholars and researchers of Korean studies at the exhibition. They came along with their students, and we had a lively discussion about the hidden messages and artistic value of each picture. It was good to share opinions on a contentious topic such as North Korean art, and our feeling converged on many things regarding the commonalities and differences between North Korean and Soviet propaganda art.

First of all, socialist realism in art is a misnomer, since it depicts life as it should be, not as it really is. For instance, in this exhibition, there was an image of chubby children in Pyongyang Zoo feeding monkeys with ice-cream. The abundance of rice, vegetables and rabbits on show in other pictures also seemed a disservice to aid agencies diligently dispatching food and other humanitarian relief to starving North Koreans. In the artwork, life in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea was consistently depicted as affluent and pleasant.

In fact, North Korea is a revolutionary state, struggling to achieve economic success and advance its military power. This can be viewed and sensed through the canvases dedicated to the heroism of builders working on the Taegyedo Tideland Reclamation Project or soldiers engaged in constructing the Huicheon Dam.

Heroism at war and in peaceful reconstruction is venerated and equated to the revolutionary course of juche (national self-reliance) and songun (military-first) politics. Thus, every picture, embroidery and poster carries a condensed revolutionary message that must convince the viewer that the people of North Korea are determined and invincible. Some may call it propaganda, but in North Korea this genre is known as Chosunhwa (Korean painting).

In fact, there is very little of Korean tradition in Chosunhwa. Although most pictures are created with watercolors and ink, the characters, actions and settings are Stalinist Soviet or Maoist Chinese. Even where the North Korean artists try to be experimental and use such materials as gouache or mosaic, the results resemble the typical posters and murals once omnipresent in the streets of Moscow and Beijing.

Only the embroidery works were genuinely traditional, and most viewers were stunned by their elaborate composition and vibrant range of colors.

After discussing the merit of each exhibit, my expert friends and I agreed that totalitarian societies do produce impressive pieces of art, which inspire awe and overwhelm the target audience.

While the value of such art is transient and more akin to propaganda, the technical side of it is so unquestionably powerful that it deserves recognition and research, if not admiration.

Unfortunately for the North Korean artists and Mansudae Art Studio entrepreneurs, the value of this art is restricted by the willingness of the purchaser to help the juche and songun revolution. Otherwise, mainstream North Korean art, which is dutifully devoid of abstraction, has very limited export value.

That explains the usual commercial difficulties encountered by the North Korean art exhibitions brought overseas by the North Korean Committee for Cultural Relations with Foreign Countries. Among the rare buyers of the socialist kitsch are maverick revolutionary zealots and some rich sympathizers from South Korea.

In Russia and China, former communist patrons of North Korea, the appetite for hackneyed images and themes is dwindling. What leaves the strongest impression from “The Water Flows Beneath the Ice” is not the contrived propaganda on the walls but the artistic installation placed in the middle of the gallery.

Dozens of green combat helmets hanging from the ceiling form perfect lampshades over the scarlet-red carpet hosting a lonely short-legged Korean traditional table. A bowl of white rice on the table symbolizes the prosperity that songun was designed to create and protect. The soft pink light gleaming from each helmet resembles the cherished hope of the Korean people for peace, love and harmony.

The bouquets of colorful firework shots projected on the screen at the end of the gallery hall surmount the composition and instill a sense of triumphant fulfillment. The aim is seemingly to capture the unbending spirit of Koreans (in both the North and South), as well as their hardworking and peace-loving character.

Overall, the “And Water Flows Beneath the Ice” was a bright and memorable phenomenon for the cultural life of the Russian capital. Neither the awkwardness of the premises (conditions in the old liquor factory demanded that all visitors wore clumsy overshoes) nor the overpriced pamphlet (more than US$30) spoiled the positive and inspiring atmosphere.

Although it is commercially and morally questionable as well as kitsch, the unusual initiative has awakened in hardened Russian art-lovers a long-lost belief in fairness and altruism: ideals that are highly valued by Koreans.

Read the full story here:
North Korean art stirs Muscovites
Asia Times
Leonid Petrov
2/2/2011

I was in Washington today for the release of Haggard’s and Noland’s new book Witness to Transformation: Refugee Insights into North Korea. According to the Peterson Institute’s web page:

Despite its nuclear capability, in certain respects North Korea resembles a failed state sitting uneasily atop a shifting internal foundation. This instability is due in part to the devastating famine of the 1990s and the state’s inability to fulfill the economic obligations that it had assumed, forcing institutions, enterprises, and households to cope with the ensuing challenges of maintaining stability with limited cooperation between the Korean government and the international community. The ineffective response to the humanitarian crisis triggered by the famine resulted in the outflow of perhaps tens of thousands of refugees whose narratives are largely overlooked in evaluating the efficacy of the humanitarian aid program. Witness to Transformation: Refugee Insights into North Korea uses extensive surveys with refugees who now reside in China or South Korea to provide extraordinary insight into the changing pathways to power, wealth, and status within North Korea. These refugee testimonies provide an invaluable interpretation of the regime, its motivations, and its capabilities and assess the situation on the ground with the rise of inequality, corruption, and disaffection in the decade since the famine. Through the lens of these surveys, preeminent North Korean experts Stephan Haggard and Marcus Noland carefully document the country’s transition from a centrally planned economy to a highly distorted market economy, characterized by endemic corruption and widening inequality. The authors chart refugees’ reactions to the current conditions and consider the disparity between the perceived and real benefit of the international humanitarian aid program experienced by this displaced population. Finally, the book examines these refugees’ future prospects for integration into a new society.

I have read the book and found it tremendously helpful for understanding the changing dynamics within the DPRK.

In conjunction with the release of the book, the two authors have launched a new blog.  You can see it here. They have already posted some fantastic data—and we can also see a sense of humor as well!

UPDATE:

1. Here is a link to the presentation given at the event.

2. Here is coverage in the Daily NK.

3. Here is coverage in the AFP.

According to the Choson Ilbo:

The price of rice and foreign currency exchange rate in North Korea have both dropped drastically in a matter of a week, according to Radio Free Asia.

The radio station reported Saturday that rice in Hyesan, Yanggang Province was selling for 2,000 won per kg as of Friday, down from 3,300 won or nearly 40 percent from six days earlier. The Chinese yuan was trading for 400 North Korean won, down from 520.

A local source said that various rumors had prompted merchants to stockpile rice and then suddenly release it. The source also added that the rice requisitioned for the military, a key cause of recent price increases, is being siphoned off and sold, bringing the price down.

Read the full story here:
Rice Prices in N.Korea Plunge 40%
Choson Ilbo
1/31/2011

Andrei Lankov writes in the Korea Times about the state of the North Korean economy.  Excerpt below:

The existing statistics are remarkably untrustworthy, being essentially educated guesses by analysts. Nonetheless, these statistics indicate a moderate growth of the North Korean economy.

But the present author talks to North Koreans quite frequently. So I don’t need statistics to confirm what becomes clear from my talks with refugees, smugglers, migrant workers and those Koreans who have illegal Chinese mobile phones. Throughout the last ten years the economic situation in the country has improved, even though this improvement was very moderate.

What does “improvement” in this context exactly mean? First of all, few if any North Koreans now face the threat of starvation, though malnourishment remains a widespread problem. Many (perhaps, a majority) of North Koreans don’t have enough to eat in spring. This has a seriously negative impact on their health and is especially bad for children. Nonetheless, unlike the 1990s, it seldom leads to death.

The average North Korean meal is a bowl of boiled corn with a few pickles. Meat or fish are eaten only on special occasions or by affluent people.

Indeed the last decade was a time when material inequality increased in leaps and bounds. Some of the new rich are officials who take advantage of their positions while others are successful entrepreneurs running all kinds of private businesses.

A successful North Korean entrepreneur nowadays might even openly own a car. For instance in a relatively small borderland city with a population of some 90,000 people there are officially three private cars. Much more frequently well-to-do North Koreans prefer to register their cars with state agencies. At any rate, ten years ago a private car was almost unthinkable.

The less successful entrepreneurs or craftsmen are still doing quite well as indicated by significant increase in the number of consumer durables owned by North Koreans. Fifteen years ago a fridge was a sign of exceptional luxury, almost as rare as a private jet in the U.S. Now it’s a bit like a luxury car, an item that 10-20 percent of households can afford.

What is also interesting is the spread of computers, including privately owned ones. In most cases these are old, used computers which are imported or smuggled from China. They are quite outdated but they are computers nonetheless. Recently I interviewed a group of school teachers from the countryside, and they said that nowadays every high school, even in remote parts of the country, is likely to have at least one computer (admittedly, this wonderful contraption is seldom switched on).

This does not mean of course that North Korea has become a consumer paradise. In spite of some improvements, the gap between the North and its successful neighbors continues to widen. However in absolute terms the North Korean economy is not shrinking any more.

There have been serious setbacks, the currency reform early last year is a perfect example. For a while, this failure almost paralyzed the economy and created serious food shortages across the country.

But what brought about this moderate growth? It seems that there are three major contributing factors.

First, North Korea has been quite good at begging and blackmailing the outside world into providing aid. The aid was initially provided by South Korea and the U.S., but now it comes almost exclusively from China.

Second, North Korea’s technocrats have learned how to run the country in its new situation. They are not very efficient at this, but, to quote Marcus Noland, “they are muddling through.”

The present author is inclined to believe that it is the third reason which is the most important of all. Over the last decade a relatively powerful private economy has developed in North Korea. North Koreans did not merely learn how to trade privately, they now produce privately as well and this growth of industry invisibly and privately, seems to have contributed to the growth described above.

The growth is moderate, and no breakthrough is likely. Nonetheless, it is real and palpable.

Read the full story here:
Between myths and facts
Korea Times
Andrei Lankov
1/30/2011

According to the Korea Times:

Radio Free Asia (RFA) of the United States reported Friday that a North Korean ship has been detained for the 10th consecutive month by Somali pirates.

“The Chilsanbong Cheonnyeonho of the North was hijacked near Somali waters on March 31 last year and has since been detained,” the Washington-based shortwave radio reported, quoting a report on ships taken by pirates in 2010 published by the International Maritime Bureau (IMB). “Nine sailors suffered wounds from armed pirates, while resisting their attack.”

Another North Korean freighter, Limho, was hijacked on its voyage through the Bay of Aden on Feb. 3 last year and was released after four months of negotiations, according to the report.

A total of nine North Korean merchant ships were captured or attacked by pirates since 2006 _ one each in 2006 and 2008, five in 2008 and two in 2010.

During the same period, as many as 12 South Korean ships suffered similar fates _ four in 2006, three in 2008, one in 2009 and four in 2010.

“Close international cooperation is urgently needed to cope with growing damage from pirates,” said RFA. “However, North Korea, which joined the International Maritime Organization (IMO) in 1986, has failed to pay annual fees of 30,000 euros since 2009, saying, ‘It is hard to actively work due to a change of diplomats at the embassy.’”

Links to previous Somali pirate stories here.

Read the full story here:
‘N. Korean ship detained for 10 months by Somali pirates’
Korea Times
1/28/2011

According to the Choson Ilbo:

The government will set a 1-percent quota for North Korean defectors in administrative assistant jobs at public agencies, it said Thursday. The government made the decision on the assumption that about 3,000 North Koreans arrive in South Korea on average every year who have a hard time adapting to their new environment partly due to difficulties finding jobs.

Some 200 North Korean defectors are expected to be employed as administrative assistants this year, given that the total hired by the central and local governments is about 20,000 annually.

A Ministry of Public Administration and Security spokesman said the government “decided to take the lead in hiring North Korean defectors to raise awareness of them and encourage private companies to follow suit.”

The ministry plans to ask former and current public servants to serve as mentors for defectors and give them a training course through which they can develop their skills.

According to the ministry, the total number of defectors stood at 7,687 in 2005 and is expected to exceed the 30,000 mark in 2013.

Read the full story here:
1% of Public-Sector Jobs to Go to N.Korean Defectors
Choson Ilbo
1/28/2010