North Korean Economy Watch

Pictured above (Google Earth): (L) Kumsong Youth Publishers (금성청년출판사), (R) Pyongyang General Printing Factory (평양종합인쇄공장). According to the Daily NK article below, both factories print calendars in the DPRK.

UPDATE 1 (2012-3-23): The Daily NK updates us on the DPRK’s 2012 calendars:

The slogan on the cover of the calendar has been edited from “The Great Leader President Kim Il-sung will always be with us” to “The Great President Kim Il-sung and the Great Leader Kim Jong-il Will always be with us”

The new calendar marks February 16th (Kim Jong-il’s official birthday) as “The Day of the Shining Star”. This same day is also celebrated as the day Kim Jong-il received the title “generalissimo”.

“The Day of the Sun” (April 15th–Kim Il-sung’s birthday) was always there, however, revised text about other dates has been added.

The May picture comes from the DPRK film Petition. The June image comes from The Blessed Land.

July – October calendar pages

December 17th 2012 commemorates “Juche 100”. December 17th is the day Kim Jong Il passed away.

ORIGINAL POST (2012-1-10): According to the Daily NK:

North Korea has recalled all 2012 calendars because they do not specify the date of Kim Jong Il’s death (December 17th), and is producing new ones.

A Shinuiju source confirmed for Daily NK on the 5th, “Pyongyang Combined [General] Printing and other printers are creating new calendars marking Kim Jong Il’s death.”

“An order was handed down through Party organs, enterprises and people’s units calling for the return of those calendars which had been distributed. Calendars stored by traders who were planning to go and distribute them outside of North Korea are also being recalled,” the source added.

However, most of those calendars which have already been exported, such as the one obtained by Daily NK [see picture here], will continue to circulate.

The absence of the date of death is not the only problem with the new calendar. There are also problematic messages such as ‘We hope for great leader comrade Kim Jong Il’s good health.’ As such, the new calendar will reportedly both include Kim Jong Il’s official date of death and the latest slogan, ‘Great leader comrade Kim Jong Il is with us forever.’

Official North Korean calendars are designed and published by a number of publishing houses including Keumsung Youth Publishing House and Agricultural Publishing Company on the authority of the Party Propaganda and Agitation Department. They are still distributed to all Party organs, enterprises and military bases, although due to economic and production limitations the paper quality has dropped in recent years, and even this measure has not been enough to stop distribution to households breaking down.

On this, one defector from North Hamkyung Province commented, “There are 28 households in a people’s unit, but only 10 calendars were given to us once.”

Other than the official calendar published for distribution, each of the authorized publishers produces a higher quality 7-page calendar for sale in places like the jangmadang. Some high-quality scroll calendars are also produced by People’s Army Publishing House, People’s Safety Ministry, and National Security Agency etc.

An additional point of interest for the reproduced calendars is whether Kim Jong Eun’s birthday (January 8th) will be made prominent. January 8th, 2012 is a Sunday and as such would typically be marked in red anyway, but usually to emphasize special days the numbers are printed in a bigger font.

Read the full story here:
North Korea in Mass Calendar Recall
Daily NK
Park Jun Hyeong
2012-01-10

I am going through some new satellite imagery of the Pyongyang area and wanted to point out a new highlight:

Among the many things that Kim Jong-un inherited from his father is a new, exclusive train station built just across the river from the family’s Kangdong estate (39.198864°, 126.016210°).

Google Earth images. (L) 2006-12-17 (R) 2011-11-13.

Pictured above are two Google Earth screen shots of the Kangdong complex (highlighted in red). The new train station can be seen to the north west of the compound on the opposite side of the river.

The station compound is 780 meters in length, and there is no train visible.  Although the satellite image is dated 2011-11-13, it is unclear if this facility has ever been used–this is the only commerically available photo of the station. It is also worth noting that a village just north of the station has been removed.

This new train station is connected to the national railway system at the Phyongsong Station via a dedicated line that is approximately 11.5km long.

Google Earth offers an interesting perspective of the railway line construction:

In the images above (TOP: 2009-4-16, BOTTOM-L: 2010-3-28, BOTTOM-R: 2011-11-13) We can see the construction of the railway line. A nearby factory was torn down to make room for the tracks.

This dedicated line has one branch that is under construction and extends south towards the Taedong Fruit Farm before abruptly ending.

The Kangdong facility itself has also received a few new additions:

Pictured above are two different Google Earth images of part of the Kangdong Leadership Compound.  (L) 2006 (R) 2011.

Judging from these satellite images, the Kandgong leadership compound has received a new residency (for Kim Jong-un?) in the upper-right side of the 2011 photo, a new support facility (bottom-center), and new sports facilities (top-center). On the left side of the photo is a peculiar area that appears to be a tree farm, but in all honesty, I can’t say with any confidence what it is.  Ideas welcome.

Additional information:

1. This compound has been drastically overhauled since Kenji Fujimoto visited.  See his pictures here, here, here, and here.

2. Kim Jong-il lived here while recovering from a stroke in 2008.

Pictured Above (Google Earth:  39.018532°, 125.728943°): The Central Committee of the Kim Il-sung Socialist Youth League in Pyongyang (청년동맹중앙위원회)

According to the Daily NK:

Chosun Central News Agency reported today that Ri Yong Cheol, the 1st Secretary of the Kim Il Sung Socialist Youth League, has been dismissed, replaced by Jeon Yong Nam.

Ri was removed by the 47th plenary session of the organization’s central committee in Pyongyang yesterday for reasons related to his age, according to the report. Ri, the son of former Workers’ Party Guidance Department Vice Director Ri Hwa Seon, had been in the job since December, 2007. He was also on the funeral committee at the death of Kim Jong Il.

The Kim Il Sung Socialist Youth League is among the first political organizations with which young North Koreans come into contact. Acting as the youth wing of the Chosun Workers’ Party, its membership, comprised of persons aged 14-30, is estimated at approximately five million.

Here is coverage in Rodong Sinmun:

The 47th plenary meeting of the Central Committee of the Kim Il Sung Socialist Youth League was held in Pyongyang on March 22.

At the meeting former First Secretary Ri Yong Chol was relieved of his post and recalled for his age reason and Jon Yong Nam was posted instead.

Here is what Wikipedia has to say about the Kim Il-sung Youth League:

Kim Il Sung Socialist Youth League (Korean: 김일성사회주의청년동맹, Hanja: 金日成社會主義靑年同盟) is a Korean youth organization. It is the main youth organization in DPR Korea.

It was founded by Kim Il-sung on January 17, 1946 as the Democratic Youth League of North Korea. It became the youth wing of the Workers Party of North Korea, later the Workers Party of Korea. It was renamed the Democratic Youth League of Korea and in May 1964 renamed as the League of Socialist Working Youth of Korea.[1] It assumed its present name on its 50th anniversary in 1996.[2]

The 47th plenary meeting of the Central Committee of the Kim Il Sung Socialist Youth League was held in Pyongyang on March the 22th of 2012. At the meeting former First Secretary Ri Yong Chol was relieved of his post for his age reason and Jon Yong Nam was elected to the post.

Read the full story here:
KIS Youth League Gets New Head
Daily NK
Kang Mi-jin
2012-3-23

Click image above to see KCNA video of interview with Yun Yong-sok, vice department director of DPRK Joint Venture Investment Committee

According to KCNA (2012-3-23):

The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea is willing to further improve its environment for foreign investment, Yun Yong Sok, a vice department director of the DPRK Committee for Investment and Joint Venture, told KCNA.

He said:

The nation’s economy is gaining momentum, with many industrial establishments and power stations being built across the country.

It is a consistent policy of the DPRK Government to enhance economic cooperation with other countries, while beefing up its self-reliant national economy.

In December last year, the government amended investment-related laws, including the DPRK Law and Regulations on Foreign Investment, laws on joint venture and joint collaboration and the Law on Foreign-funded Businesses and Foreigners’ Tax Payment, in step with the nation’s developing economy and international practices.

It enacted the law on economic zone on Hwanggumphyong and Wihwa islets in the River Amnok and revised and supplemented the law on the Rason economic and trade zone.

The joint development and management in the two economic zones takes on a new way of cooperation. Now it has been under way in a creditable way, driven by the active efforts of both sides of the DPRK and China.

Contracts on joint venture and joint collaboration have been on increase with the investment environment changing for the better.

Rare earth abundant in the country and infrastructure projects lure foreign investment in the DPRK.

The committee will pay deep attention to ensuring the interests of foreign investors, while invigorating the exchange and cooperation with governments, investors and businesses.

In other news, KCNA has adopted the American colloquialism “beefing up”.

According to the Daily NK:

There is widespread displeasure not only at mobilization for various events planned for April but also the growing funding burden being placed on households, sources have reported.

One source from Musan in North Hamkyung Province told Daily NK on the 20th, “In all areas of North Korea including Pyongyang, everyone has been rushing around preparing for the upcoming birthday celebrations since the 15th. The authorities are collecting 20,000 won per household for the purpose of decorating streets and open spaces and to fund artistic performances.”

People in Hamheung in South Hamkyung Province have received orders to prepare eight flower pots per family for the streets and verandas of each home, a source from the city said; those without flowers are apparently purchasing them from traders. “We are so busy trying to get ready for the April celebrations right now that we don’t even have time to breathe,” the source said. “Difficult times during Kim Jong Il’s regime were nothing compared to now.”

A source from Wonsan in Gangwon Province agreed, saying, “It is tough for us to even make 2,000 won per day from trading, but the authorities are asking for 20,000 won from us to buy paint to do the exterior walls of apartments! I thought a new man would make the situation better but it has gotten worse.”

In previous years, the preparation period for April events was called the ‘big cleanup’. The stairs and hallway of apartments and the doors and fences of homes had to be painted with lime, which in recent years came to cost around 5,000 won. Thereafter, students would gather leftover paint and do the walls of their classrooms. However, the cost this year is much higher.

According to the source, “This year it is called the ‘total mobilization period,’ and they have told us that those who do not participate with sincerity will be evaluated politically.”

The period has begun fifteen days earlier than normal, too, which appears to be an effort to heighten the atmosphere for this year in particular.

The Musan source explained, “All organs, enterprises and schools are practicing songs and instruments during the afternoon, and women are using parks and public spaces to practice songs and dances until 7pm. Party cadres, to create a mood for celebration, ordered people to wear their outfits for the day, but the women all look disgruntled by the fact that they have to shiver in skirts all day in the cold.”

“There are lots of fights because local offices have exempted the Union of Democratic Women from paying festival costs, instead putting that portion on other families,” the Wonsan source added, commenting that the measure has been taken because practice hours are in the afternoon when most women ordinarily go to the jangmadang to work.

Read the full story here:
April Feeling Tiresome Already
Daily NK
Choi Song Min
2012-3-22

According to Yonhap:

Despite rising cross-border tension, the trade between South and North Korea surged 36 percent from a year ago to US$320 million in the first two months of this year, government data showed on March 16.

The data provided by the Korea Customs Service indicated that the trade via the inter-Korean industrial complex has not been affected by tensions on the Korean Peninsula.

South Korea slapped sanctions on the North in May 2010 in retaliation for the deadly sinking of a South Korean warship earlier that year, though it keeps intact the complex in the North’s western border city of Kaesong.

The complex, a key outcome of the inter-Korean summit in 2000, marries South Korean capital and technology with cheap labor from the North. It is now home to more than 120 South Korean small and medium-sized companies.

Tensions have flared anew in recent weeks as the two Koreas traded militaristic rhetoric against each other over Seoul’s defamation of the dignity of North Korea’s new leader Kim Jong-un and his late father, former leader Kim Jong-il.

Read the full story here:
Inter-Korean Trade Surges 36 Percent This Year
North Korea Newsletter No. 202 (March 22, 2012)
Yonhap

According to Rodong Sinmun (DPRK):

Korean map changed in the Songun Era led by leader Kim Jong Il.

The land of socialist Korea was widened by land realignment and tideland reclamation.

Several large-scale nature-driven waterways were completed and many artificial lakes formed, thereby changing the mountains and rivers more beautifully.

According to data available, over the past 10 years more than 14 000 hectares of tideland were reclaimed with a result that the coastline of the country was remarkably shortened and many islands turned into land.

Since 1998 over 280 000 hectares of farmland have been realigned, thereby forming large areas of new land.

The completion of nature-driven waterways of over 10 000 kms across the country formed lots of artificial lakes.

Over the past 10 years large areas of new land were obtained by the successful completion of Taegyedo, Kwaksan, Kumsong and Punjiman tideland reclamation projects.

At present, lots of reclaimed tideland turned into farmland to contribute to grain production.

Large and small nature-driven waterways are supplying water for irrigating hundreds of thousand hectares of farmlands without electricity.

See additional information on these projects here:

1. Another Songun-era agriculture project launched in Haeju (2012-1-26)

2. DPRK announces continuation of Unryul land reclamation project (2011-6-14)

3. More DPRK efforts to boost food production (2011-2-7)

4. Taegyedo tideland project completed (2010-7-8)

5. Land reclamation in the DPRK (2009-8-22)

6. DPRK land rezoning policy (2009-7-13)

Read the full story here:
Korean Map Changed in Songun Era
Rodong Sinmun (DPRK)
Pak Ok Gyong
2012-3-22

According to Business Week:

Gaeseong, which is within sight of South Korean and U.S. guard posts along the Demilitarized Zone, was developed as a joint special economic zone in 2005 and now employs about 50,000 North Koreans, according to the Unification Ministry in Seoul.

More than 120 South Korean companies, including Daewha Fuel, underwear maker Good People Co. and watchmaker Romanson Co. (026040) paid the North Korean government about $60 million to $70 million last year to cover labor costs for workers, said Park Soo Jin, the deputy spokeswoman at the Unification Ministry. Authorities in Pyongyang then paid the employees in local currency and vouchers, she said.

Trade Minister Bark Tae Ho said on March 14 that he will try to persuade the U.S. and European Union to recognize products made in Gaeseong as South Korean.

Singapore Tariffs
The EU and South Korea have agreed to establish a committee this year to examine the issue, Tomasz Kozlowski, ambassador for the EU delegation in Seoul, said in an e-mailed statement. Aaron Tarver, a spokesman at the U.S. Embassy, said in an e-mail that the trade pact does not include any products from North Korea, including those from Gaeseong, without commenting further.

Singapore has reduced tariffs covering more than 4,000 products from Gaeseong under its bilateral trade pact with South Korea, said Lee Sang Mok, Deputy Director at Korea Customs Service. Some products are also covered by agreements with the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations, India, Peru and the European Free Trade Association consisting of Switzerland, Iceland, Liechtenstein and Norway, Lee said via e- mail and telephone.

The value of output from Gaeseong jumped from $14.9 million in its first year to $402 million in 2011, according to the Unification Ministry. During the past seven years, its production totaled $1.5 billion. That compares with $40 billion for North Korea’s annual gross domestic product, according to the CIA World Factbook.

“The U.S. seems to want more progress in North Korean nuclear and human rights issues before including Gaeseong in FTA,” IBK’s Cho said.

…

Yoo of Daewha Fuel Pump said he plans to spend 1 billion won ($885,000) this year to boost capacity in Gaeseong by 50 percent and forecasts sales to jump to 65 billion won this year from 45 billion won in 2011. His company, which also makes parts in plants in South Korea, supplies automakers including Hyundai Motor Co., Honda Motor Co. and Nissan Motor Co., he said.

The minimum monthly base salary paid by companies at Gaeseong is about $64, according to the Unification Ministry’s Park. Yoo, who was speaking at Incheon near Seoul, estimated labor costs would be 20 times higher in South Korea and three times higher in China.

“The security issue is of course a big risk but every business has a risk,” Yoo said. “Gaeseong has survived all the clashes and threats, including the sinking of a warship and the shelling of a South Korean island”.

Read the full story here:
North Korea’s Gaeseong Pushed for Inclusion in FTA
Business Week
Eunkyung Seo and Sangwon Yoon
2012-3-22

The Congressional Research Service (CRS) is the research branch of the US Congress and the number one information source for congressional staff. CRS is responsible for maintining updated research publications on numerous policy concerns and this year they have published two reports on the DPRK:

North Korea’s Nuclear Weapons: Technical Issues (PDF)
Congressional Research Service
Mary Beth Nikitin
February 29, 2012

North Korea: US Relations, Nuclear Diplomacy, and Internal Situation (PDF)
Congressional Research Service
Emma Chanlett-Avery
January 17, 2012

I have archived these and many other CRS reports on the DPRK here.

Population and Development Review
March 2012
Thomas Spoorenberg and Daniel Schwekendiek

Using the 1993 and 2008 national population and housing census data, this article uses population projection to reconstruct the population trends of North Korea over the 15 intercensal years. The article is structured as follows: a brief history of North Korea over the last 60 years is provided. The 1993 and 2008 census data—population by age and sex, fertility, and mortality indicators—are described and critically assessed. From this censusbased demographic evidence and other existing demographic estimates, the population dynamics of the country is reconstructed prospectively from 1993 to 2008 through population projections testing the plausibility of different population trends. Finally, counterfactual population projections are run in order to estimate (1) the demographic impact of the famine in the 1990s and (2) the human cost of the deteriorating living conditions in North Korea that were widely reported during the 1990s and 2000s.