North Korean Economy Watch

Forgotten People:  The Koreans of the Sakhalin Island in 1945-1991
Download here (PDF)
Andrei Lankov
December 2010

North Korea: Migration Patterns and Prospects
Download here (PDF)
Courtland Robinson, Center for Refugee and Disaster Response, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University
August, 2010

North Korea’s 2009 Nuclear Test: Containment, Monitoring, Implications
Download here (PDF)
Jonathan Medalia, Congressional Research Service
November 24, 2010

North Korea: US Relations, Nuclear Diplomacy, and Internal Situation
Download here (PDF)
Emma Chanlett-Avery, Congressional Research Service
Mi Ae-Taylor, Congressional Research Service
November 10, 2010

‘Mostly Propaganda in Nature:’ Kim Il Sung, the Juche Ideology, and the Second Korean War
Download here (PDF)
Wilson Center NKIDP
Mitchell Lerner

Drug Trafficking from North Korea: Implications for Chinese Policy
Read here at the Brookings Institution web page
Yong-an Zhang, Visiting Fellow, Foreign Policy, Center for Northeast Asian Policy Studies
December 3, 2010

Additional DPRK-focused CRS reports can be found here.

The Wilson Center’s previous NKIDP Working Papers found here.

I also have many papers and publications on my DPRK Economic Statistics Page.

The Woodrow Wilson Center’s North Korea International Documentation Project has launched a working paper series which draws from their unique archives of diplomatic papers from formerly socialist countries.  The second working paper in the series has just been released, you may download them both from the links below:

1. Charles Armstrong, “Juche And North Korea’s Global Aspirations,” Spetember 2009

2. Bernd Schaefer, “Overconfidence Shattered: North Korean Unification Policy, 1971 -1975,” December 2010

According to the Wilson Center’s web page, they also just received over 2,000 pages of Romanian documents:

NKIDP would like to thank Eliza Gheorghe, a PhD student in History at Oxford University, for obtaining on behalf of NKIDP over 2,000 pages of newly declassified Romanian archival documents on relations with North Korea in the late 1960s and 1970s. The collection brings together minutes of conversations between North Korean leaders and Romanian officials with daily communications from the Romanian embassy in Pyongyang between the critical period 1966-1968. Other documents report on the inner-workings and foreign relations of North Korea from 1970-1979.

Andrei Lankov has written a short unpublished paper on the current situation in Korea which places the current events into some context. I have posted the full article below. I have also created a PDF of this document which you may download here.

—-

THE YEONPYEONG ISLAND INCIDENT: WHY IT HAPPENED, WHY NOTHING CAN BE DONE, AND WHAT TO EXPECT: SOME THOUGHTS.

Andrei Lankov

So North Korea did it again. In late March a North Korean submarine sunk a South Korean warship. This time North Korean policy planners decided to try something new. On the afternoon of the 23rd November, North Korean artillery began to shell the South Korean island of Yeonpyeon which is located in the disputed waters to the west of the Korean peninsula (though, the North Koreans have not claimed the island itself).

Since the incident took place when military exercises were being conducted in the area by the South Korean military, there have been suggestions that some South Korean mistake – like an incidental shell landing to the north of the border – provoked such a reaction. It is not completely impossible, but unlikely: both the unusual intensity and length of fire (the North Korean batteries fired about 150 shells) seems to indicate we are dealing with a well planned operation.

As one should expect, the international media immediately reacted to the news by running huge headlines to the effect of the Korean peninsula being ‘On the Edge of War’. This probably helps them increase to newspapers’ sales and advertisement revenues, but this is inaccurate, since a war on the Korean peninsula is highly unlikely (as we will see below). However Yeonpyeong Island incident may indicate that we are entering a new phase of the never-ending ‘North Korean crisis’.

Why did they do it?

The media usually describes incidents like these as ‘provocations’; however in this particular such description is not correct. By definition, a ‘provocation’ is an act which is designed to lure the opposite number into an overreaction or some unreasonable actions, but this is not the North Korea’s aim this time (on the contrary, the North Korean strategists known perfectly well that no reaction whatsoever is likely to follow). Essentially we are dealing with a premeditated diplomatic gesture conducted in a somewhat unorthodox way, through the use of heavy artillery.

(more…)

According to the Independent:

A mass exodus of North Korean workers from the Far East of Russia is under way, according to reports coming out of the region. As the two Koreas edged towards the brink of war this week, it appears that the workers in Russia have been called back to aid potential military operations.

Vladnews agency, based in Vladivostok, reported that North Korean workers had left the town of Nakhodka en masse shortly after the escalation of tension on the Korean peninsula earlier this week. “Traders have left the kiosks and markets, workers have abandoned building sites, and North Korean secret service employees working in the region have joined them and left,” the agency reported.

Russia’s migration service said that there were over 20,000 North Koreans in Russia at the beginning of 2010, of which the vast majority worked in construction. The workers are usually chaperoned by agents from Kim Jong-il’s security services and have little contact with the world around them. Defectors have suggested that the labourers work 13-hour days and that most of their pay is sent back to the government in Pyongyang. Hundreds of workers have fled the harsh conditions and live in hiding in Russia, constantly in fear of being deported back to North Korea.

“North Korea’s government sends thousands of its citizens to Russia to earn money, most of which is funnelled through government accounts,” says Simon Ostrovsky, a journalist who discovered secret North Korean logging camps in the northern Siberian taiga. “Workers are often sent to remote locations for years at a time to work long hours and get as little as three days off per year.” Now it appears that some kind of centralised order has been given for the workers to return home.

Russia’s Pacific port of Vladivostok is thousands of miles and seven time zones from Moscow, but only around 100 miles from the country’s heavily controlled border with North Korea. In 1996, a diplomat from the South Korean consulate in the city was murdered with a poisoned pencil, in what was widely believed to be a hit carried out by the North’s secret agents. There are even two North Korean restaurants in the city. It is not known how many of the workers in other Russian towns have been called back to their homeland this week, or whether the exodus is permanent or temporary.

Last week the Daily NK reported that workers were increasingly leaving their jobs because increasing amounts of their salaries were being confiscated by the North Korean government.

Read the full story here:
Expats recalled as North Korea prepares for war
The Independent
Shaun Walker
11/27/2010

Kumya Dam
A dam is being constructed in Kumya County, South Hamgyong Province, to provide electrical power. Kim Jong-il last visited in August 4, 2010. It is just one of several dams under currently under construction in the DPRK.

Here is a satellite image of the Kumya dam’s construction (Google Earth: 11/25/2008,  39.574232°, 127.104736°)

This new reservoir will flood the locations of three villages (리): Ryongnam-ri (룡남리), Ryongsang-ri (룡상리), and Ryongchon-ri (룡천리).

Estimates of the reservoir size are made by me, but it is fairly obvious where the North Korean engineers expect the reservoir to flood because they have already relocated the villages from their former locations in the flood zone.

Here are the former locations of Ryongchon-ri, Ryongsong-ri, and Ryongnam-ri:

All of the homes, buildings, and factories have been moved (lock, stock, and barrel) to another location. I am not sure where.

Imnam Reservoir
The dislocation caused by the Kumya Dam, however, pails in comparison to the dislocation caused by the creation of the Imnam Reservoir (임남저수지) in Changdo County (창도군).

The Imnam Reservoir bisected the county and flooded nearly half of it, including its capital city and at least 14 villages (리): Jisok-ri (지석리), Pankyo-ri (판교리), Sinsong-ri (신성리), Songdo-ri (성도리), Kisong-ri (기성리), Tangsan-ri (당산리), Tohwa-ri (도화리), Tumok-ri (두목리), Myongchon-ri (면천리), Imnam-ri (임남리), Taejong-ri (대정리), Jon-ri (전리), Onpae-ri (언패리), and Cholpaek-ri (철벽리).

Below is a picture of the Imnam Reservoir along with locations of the various population centers that were flooded.

It appears that the North Koreans constructed a new county capital north of the reservior at 38.652243°, 127.711817° (although this city is not on any maps of North Korea that I have seen). This new city, however, has itself seen severe flood damage (caused by excessive rainfall).  Some of this devastation can bee seen on Google Earth, but the full extent of it is not available with current imagery.

The poor people of Changdo county can’t seem to catch a break.

Lake Paekma
Lake Paekma lies at the head of the Paekma-Cholsan Waterway in Phihyon County ( 40.082356°, 124.695685°).  Two villages were lost to the construction of this reservoir: Sangko-ri(상고리) and Ryongun-ri(룡운리).  In the images below you can see the locations of the remnants of these villages as well as their disappearance under the waters.

Military losses to dam construction
Civilians are not the only ones to have suffered dislocation at the hands of the DPRK’s energy policy. The airforce lost a couple of facilities as well.

Thaechon County:
The North Korean air force lost one training facility to a  new dam on the Taeryong River (대령강) in Thaechon County ( 39.865138°, 125.562139°).  Here and here are the before and after pictures.

Tongrim County:
And most recently, the an airfield and heliport in Tongrim County ( 39.918570°, 124.840542°) appears to be in danger of flooding as a result of the rising Maepong Reservoir (매봉저수지)–a lake on which “someone” has a very nice house:

According to the Daily NK:

The North Korean media has released a number of articles and editorials characterizing western aid as a trap leading to plunder and subordination, while emphasizing the Military-first policy and Juche.

Pyongyang’s belligerent reinforcing of self-reliance principles comes in response to the ongoing G20 Summit in Seoul.

Rodong Shinmun, the daily publication of the Chosun Workers’ Party, asserted in an editorial on the 11th, “We should wake up to western countries’ aid diplomacy,” citing a quote attributed to Kim Jong Il, “There is no more stupid and dangerous attitude than to look forward to the imperialists’ aid while failing to see their aggressive and predatory nature. The imperialists’ aid is a trap of plundering and subordination; giving one so as to extort ten or hundred times more.”

Therefore, Rodong Shinmun claimed, “The way for developing countries to achieve social and economic progress is to throw away their reliance on foreign powers and strengthen economic and technologic cooperation between developing countries based on principles of self-revitalization.”

“In countries which thoughtlessly receive the imperialists’ deceptive aid, extreme affairs happen. In those countries, economies go into recession or go bankrupt and social and political chaos is created, while enormous wealth goes to Western powers,” it also claimed.

In another editorial, “Establishment of Juche is the Life Line for the Achievement of Independent Reunification,” the same publication went on, “The current South Chosun authorities clamored to restore their reliance on the U.S. immediately after taking office and intensified the occupation of South Chosun by the U.S.”

Meanwhile, a website managed by the North Korean Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of the Fatherland, “Uriminjokkiri” posted an article on the same day which asserted, “Without independence, the life of the nation, the country will fail and the people become slaves. Military-first politics has allowed our people to take their autonomy back and embrace independent dignity and repute.”

In advance of the G20 Summit, President Lee Myung Bak stated in a press conference with domestic and international reporters, “Once North Korea reforms and opens, it will be able to receive development aid.”

However, in September North Korea criticized the unexpectedly small quantity of aid rice provided by South Korea through Tongil Shinbo, a weekly North Korean magazine, saying, “Even though they made a fuss about sending flood relief, when we uncovered it, it was just 5,000 tons of rice, through which we can see how narrow their mind is.”

“5,000 tons of rice is not even one day’s rice for the people of the Republic,” it added.

Read the full story here:
Western Aid a Trap of Enslavement
Daily NK
Mok Yong Jae
11/12/2010

UPDATE: Using North Korean television footage, I mapped out Jo Myong-rok’s funeral procession route on Google Earth.

The procession began at the Central Worker’s Hall (home of the General Federation of Trade Unions of Korea) where the VMAR’s wake was held:

The procession then traveled west to the Potong Gate (near Sojang Hall where state funerals are normally held) and then north to the Patriotic Martyr’s Cemetary. 

Jo Myong-rok was bruied in the front row of the cemetary in one of the empty spots.

I wonder which two individuals will be buried next to him?  Judging from the satellite imagery, it appers this cemetary is being expanded for additional martyrs.  I wonder what the criteria are to be buried here.  

Here is the story in KCNA.

ORIGINAL POST: According to KCNA (11/6/2010):

Vice Marshal of the Korean People’s Army Jo Myong Rok, member of the Presidium of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Workers’ Party of Korea, first vice-chairman of the DPRK National Defence Commission and deputy to the Supreme People’s Assembly, died of an inveterate heart disease at 10:30 a.m. on Nov. 6, Juche 99 (2010) at the age of 82 to our sorrow.

Born into a poor peasant’s family in Yonsa County, North Hamgyong Province on July 12, Juche 17 (1928) Jo Myong Rok was a revolutionary comrade loyal to General Secretary Kim Jong Il and a prominent activist of the WPK, the state and the army of the DPRK who devoted his whole life to the sacred struggle for the freedom and independence of the country and the victory of the cause of socialism.

He grew up to be an able military and political official under the care of the party and the leader after the country’s liberation.

He worked for years at important posts of the party, the state and the army.

In the period of the hard-fought Fatherland Liberation War against the U.S. imperialists’ armed invasion he bravely fought as a pilot of the KPA for the victory in the war. He worked hard for the development of the air force, holding posts of squadron commander, group commander and divisional commander of an air unit and the chief of the staff and commander of the air force of the KPA in the post-war period.

Holding important posts as the director of the General Political Bureau of the KPA from October, Juche 84 (1995) and first vice- chairman of the DPRK National Defence Commission from September, Juche 87 (1998), he energetically worked to thoroughly implement the Juche-oriented military line of the WPK and firmly guarantee the building of a thriving nation and the victory of the revolutionary cause of Juche with matchless military power.

He was elected alternate member of the C.C., the WPK in November, Juche 64 (1975), member of the C.C., the WPK and member of the Central Military Commission of the WPK in October, Juche 69 (1980) and member of the Presidium of the Political Bureau of the C.C., the WPK in September, Juche 99 (2010) and worked as a deputy to the Supreme People’s Assembly from the sixth Supreme People’s Assembly held in November, Juche 66 (1977).

He was awarded Order of Kim Il Sung, the highest order of the DPRK, the titles of Hero of the DPRK and Labour Hero and many other orders and medals including Order of National Flag First Class and Order of Freedom and Independence First Class for the distinguished feats he performed for the party and the revolution, the country and its people.

He received the title of vice marshal of the KPA in October, Juche 84 (1995).

An obituary of Jo Myong Rok was jointly issued by the C.C., the WPK, the Central Military Commission of the WPK, the DPRK National Defence Commission and the Presidium of the DPRK Supreme People’s Assembly on Saturday.

The obituary said that his death is a great loss to the party, the army and people of the DPRK waging a dynamic struggle to win the victory of the cause of building a thriving socialist nation and bring earlier the independent reunification of the country. Though he passed away, the exploits he performed for the party and the revolution, the country and its people will shine long along with the victorious advance of the revolutionary cause of Juche, it stressed.

On the same day, the C.C., the WPK, the Central Military Commission of the WPK, the DPRK National Defence Commission and the Presidium of the DPRK Supreme People’s Assembly announced that the late Jo Myong Rok would be accorded a state funeral and formed a state funeral committee with Kim Jong Il as its chairman and Kim Jong Un and 169 others as its members.

The state funeral committee informed the public that the bier of the deceased would be placed in the Central Hall of Workers, it would receive mourners from 10:00 on Nov. 8 to 18:00 on Nov. 9 and the hearse would leave the hall at 9 a.m. on Nov. 10.

KCNA also reports (11/8/2010):

Leading officials of the state and armed forces organs Monday visited the bier of Vice Marshal of the Korean People’s Army Jo Myong Rok, member of the Presidium of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Workers’ Party of Korea, first vice-chairman of the National Defense Commission of the DPRK and deputy to the Supreme People’s Assembly, to express deep condolences over his death.

Seen standing before the bier of the late Jo Myong Rok was a wreath sent by Kim Jong Il, general secretary of the Workers’ Party of Korea, chairman of the DPRK National Defence Commission and supreme commander of the Korean People’s Army.

Also seen standing before the bier were wreaths sent by the C.C., the WPK, the Central Military Commission of the WPK, the NDC of the DPRK, the Presidium of the Supreme People’s Assembly of the DPRK, the DPRK Cabinet and the Ministry of the People’s Armed Forces.

Among the mourners were Choe Yong Rim, Jon Pyong Ho, Pyon Yong Rip, Kim Rak Hui, Kim Chang Sop, Ri Ha Il, anti-Japanese veteran fighters Ri Ul Sol and Kim Chol Man, and Kim Yong Dae, chairman of the C.C., the Korean Social Democratic Party, and Ryu Mi Yong, chairperson of the C.C., the Chondoist Chongu Party.

They observed a moment’s silence in memory of the late Jo Myong Rok and expressed deep condolences to the bereaved families of the deceased.

On the same day officials of armed forces organs including the NDC and the Ministry of the People’s Armed Forces, servicepersons of KPA and the Korean People’s Internal Security Forces, officials of the party and power organs, working people’s organizations, ministries and national institutions, working people from all walks of life, the diplomatic corps and the military attaches corps here and overseas Koreans visited the Central Hall of Workers where the bier of the deceased was placed and expressed condolences over his death.

Additional Information:
1. Michael Madden has additional information on the VMAR here and here.

2. The media is highlighting that Kim Jong-un has been named after his father as a member of the state funeral committee.  See here and here.

3. To see a satellite image of the Central Worker’s Hall click here.  This will be the first funeral to be held in this facility since at least 1996.  As far as I can tell this is the first funeral to be held there.

4. Most other state funerals are conducted in Sojang Hall in Potonggang District (Satellite image here).  See a previous post I wrote about the geography of DPRK state funerals here.

According to the AP:

Ban Ki-moon told U.N. member nations in a report on North Korea’s human rights situation that rainfall in some areas of the country is expected to be 18 percent lower this year than in 2009, despite torrential downpours and flooding that hit the country’s west on Aug. 20.

U.N. agencies providing humanitarian assistance in the country are also increasingly faced with critical funding shortages, and have managed to provide only 20 percent of the $492 million required in 2009, he said. “This has led to a downsizing of operations, with several areas and some vulnerable groups no longer receiving international assistance,” Ban’s report said.

The Secretary-General wrote that reports from inside the country indicate that North Koreans continue to suffer from chronic food security, high malnutrition and severe economic problems.

e also urged nations to “encourage improvements in the human rights situation” inside North Korea.

The Secretary-General said the North Korean government also had the responsibility “to take immediate steps to ensure the enjoyment of the right to food, water, sanitation and health, and to allocate greater budgetary resources to that end.”

“Such persistent problems as widespread food shortages, a health care system in decline, lack of access to safe drinking water and deterioration in the quality of education are seriously hampering the fulfillment of basic human rights,” Ban wrote.

Ban said broad restrictions on civil and political rights, such as freedom of thought, religion, and expression continue to be imposed by the North Korean government on its citizens. “The government’s control over the flow of information is strict and pervasive,” his report said.

North Koreans found listening to broadcasts or disseminating information seen as opposing the government can be sentenced to up to two years in a “labor training camp,” or up to five years of “corrective labor” for more serious cases, it said.

The report said that although independent verification is impossible, there continue to be reports of public executions, political prisoners held under harsh conditions, and the use of torture, forced labor, and ill treatment of refugees or asylum-seekers repatriated from abroad.

Ban said that North Korea has rejected offers of technical assistance by the U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights, and he urged the government to reconsider its position.

While serious concerns remain about political and civil rights in the insular nation, “I urge the international community not to constrain humanitarian aid on the basis of political and security concerns,” Ban wrote.

Read the full story here:
UN: Less rain, aid to hurt North Koreans
Associated Press
Anita Snow
10/29/2010

According to the Wall Street Journal blog:

During television coverage Monday of the 65th anniversary of the founding of North Korea’s ruling Workers’ Party, the camera zoomed in on a familiar, long-chinned face among the dignitaries: Antonio Inoki, a popular Japanese ex-professional wrestler, former Upper House politician and star of numerous TV commercials.

Whippersnapper JRT readers may be wondering who Mr. Inoki is, but veteran sports fans might well remember his infamous matchup with Muhammed Ali in Tokyo in 1976, a boxing-versus-wrestling bout that was billed as ‘The War of the Worlds’ but ended in low farce.

What on earth was he doing in North Korea? At Kim Jong-Il’s big day out?

Fact is, this wasn’t his first visit. According to the Asahi Shimbun, 67-year old Mr. Inoki has visited North Korea 21 times, with his latest trip coming after a ‘strong request’ from Pyongyang that he attend the celebrations on Monday.

Mr. Inoki, whose real name is Kanji Inoki, is wildly popular in the hermit kingdom for being the protégé of Rikidozan, a legendary sumo wrestler originally from Korea, and seen as the founder of professional wrestling in Japan. The country has released a postage stamp bearing Mr. Inoki’s likeness, and in 1995 he battled ‘Nature Boy’ Ric Flair at a two-day ‘Wrestling for Peace’ event in Pyongyang in front of a reported 190,000 people.

These days his visits tend to be for more sedate reasons, such as attending film festivals, and in September he received the ‘Order of DPRK Friendship 1st Class’ from the North Korean government. This Japanese TV report shows some of the highlights of his six-day trip in September, including a tour of some of the sights.

Mr. Inoki’s visits to Pyongyang may seem surprising amid the general distrust between Japan and North Korea, especially as public opinion at home is dominated by issues such as the abduction of Japanese citizens for the training of North Korean spies. But although the Japanese media faithfully reports on Mr. Inoki’s comings and goings, his trips appear to draw little criticism in his home country.

Indeed, somewhat bizarrely, he has become a source of information on current thinking in the notoriously guarded regime. On his return from Pyongyang in September, Mr. Inoki told waiting reporters—correctly– that the Workers’ Party conference would likely be held between late September and early October. Meanwhile, while changing planes in Beijing Tuesday after his most recent trip, Mr. Inoki briefed journalists on his conversation with a senior North Korean official, who told him that the regime was puzzled by Japan’s constant change of leadership.

Could he be working behind the scenes in an effort to improve relations between the two countries? Calls to Mr. Inoki himself went unanswered Tuesday, but his frequent trips to Pyongyang and warm reception suggest he is one of the few Japanese to have the ear of the regime.

The Japanese government’s official position on North Korea is that it aims to “normalize relations…in a manner that would contribute to the peace and stability of the Northeast Asian region.” A Japanese MOFA official declined to comment on the effect of Mr. Inoki’s trips to North Korea, citing the ministry’s policy of not commenting on trips made by private citizens.

Indeed, this is not the first time Mr. Inoki has tried his hand at go-it-alone diplomacy. In late 1990, during the early stages of the first Gulf War, he visited Saddam Hussein in Baghdad in a successful bid to secure the release of Japanese citizens being held in the country.

Read the full story here:
Antonio Inoki: Wrestling North Korea to Diplomacy?
Wall Street Journal Blog
Andrew Joyce
10/12/2010

According to the Choson Ilbo:

A mysterious intermittent failure of Global Positioning System receivers on naval and civilian craft in some parts of the west coastal region from Aug. 23-25 was “partly” caused by North Korea, Defense Minister Kim Tae-young claimed Monday.

During a parliamentary audit of the Defense Ministry, Grand National Party lawmaker Chung Mi-kyung asked the minster whether he thinks the GPS failure along the west coast in August was caused by North Korea.

“We believe that North Korea is capable of disrupting GPS reception within the distance of 50 to 100 km,” Kim said. “However, the detention of South Korean fishing boat Daeseung on Sept. 8 on the East Sea is irrelevant to this issue as it was too far away from North Korea.”

Since the late 1990s, North Korea imported from Russia equipment that disrupts GPS reception, modified it, and made its own version. It has also been trying to export the equipment to the Middle East, he said.

North Korea’s GPS interrupter is believed to be effective in preventing the South Korean and U.S. military’s GPS-guided bombs and missiles such as Joint Direct Attack Munition (JDAM) from hitting their target accurately.

Back in 2008 the Choson Ilbo reported that the DPRK was selling GPS jamming equipment to the Middle East.

Read the full story here:
N.Korea ‘Partly’ Behind GPS Interruptions in East Sea
Choson Ilbo
10/5/2010