North Korean Economy Watch

Institute for Far East Studies (IFES)
NK Brief No. 07-8-22-1

The Bank of Korea released a report on August 17 that details economic estimates on a variety of sectors in North Korea. Overall, North Korea’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) fell 1.1 percent during 2006, the first time since 1999 that the North has failed to increase its GDP. Inclement weather was one factor that played into a fall in agricultural production, and there also appears to have been little progress in the construction of public works in the country. Overall, North Korean GNI was 2.9 percent of that in the South, with per capita GNI at 1,108 USD, 6 percent of the 18,372 USD per capita GNI in South Korea.

The entire economy of the DPRK is approximately 1/35th that of the South, with the Gross National Income (GNI) a mere 1/17th the level seen in the ROK. This shows a growing divide between the two Koreas, as the comparisons in the previous year were 1/33rd and 1/16th, respectively. Due to the North Korean nuclear issues and other foreign relations problems faced during 2006, a worsening of diplomatic relations with other countries, energy shortages and other economic woes befell the North, putting the entire economy in a difficult situation.

The North showed a weakening of the agricultural and forestry industries, increasing production by a mere 2.4 percent, 2.6 percent down from 2005. Corn and other cereal production grew by 7 percent, but rice was down 6.4 percent, and bean production was down 6.6 percent from the year before, leaving overall grain output down 3.6 percent. On the other hand, shellfish and crustacean harvests grew by 1.5 percent, while timber and livestock harvests remained unchanged.

On the mining front, coal and other non-metal mined resources showed promising increases, but production of lead, zinc, and copper fell by 1.7 percent, compared to the 3.5 percent growth posted in the previous year. Despite promising increases in production of manufactured goods and growth in the chemical and heavy industries in 2005, last year North Korean production growth rates in these fields fell flat at a mere 0.4 percent, increasing production rates of fibers, clothing and shoes, but turning out less kitchenware and food-related products. Coal and fuel products looked favorable, but fabricated metals and machine parts, as well as nonferrous metal products grew at a rate of 1.1 percent, down from 5.4 percent.

Gas-fired electrical generation was up 17 percent, while hydroelectric power grew only 2.7 percent, falling from 4.4 percent in 2005. Other infrastructure projects were also on the decline, with only 49 km of road paved in 2006.

The number of foreign tourists declined, with visitors to Kumgang Mountain falling from 366,000 in 2005 to only 265,000 last year, adding to the 21.8 percent decline in the food and lodging sector, but the transportation and communication sector grew by 5.1 percent, leading to an overall gain of 1.1 percent in the service industry.

The gap in overseas trade between the two Koreas increased from 182-fold to 212-fold as North Korean foreign trade fell off 5.2 percent. Imports in the North were up 2.3%, although seafood imports were down 48.4 percent. The slack was made up by a 34.1 percent increase in the import of plastics, a 31.2 percent increase in imported chemical goods, and a 12.4 percent increase in imported machinery.

During 2006, inter-Korean exchanges grew 27.8 percent, reaching 13.5 billion USD. South Korean exports to the North grew 16 percent as Seoul increased rice and fertilizer aid, and exports to the Kaesong Industrial Complex grew. On the other hand, North-South cooperative projects grew 52.7 percent as South Korea increasingly imported North Korean zinc, sand, and other natural resources.

In order to give some perspective to the North Korean economic data, the Bank of Korea offered the following comparisons:

DPRK/ROK/Ratio
Population (thousand) 23,079/48.297/2.1
Economic Growth (2006) -1.1%/5.0%
Nominal GNI (100 million USD) 256/8,873/34.7
Per Capita GNI (USD) 1,108/18,372/16.6
Exports (100 million USD) 9.5/3,254.6/343.8
Imports (100 million USD) 20.5/3,93.8/151.0
Coal Production (10,000 tons) 2,468/280/0.11
Electrical Use (10,000 kW) 782/6,551/8.4
Electrical Production Capacity (100 mill. KW) 225/3,812/16.9
Petroleum Imports (10,000 bbl) 384/88,843/231.4
Cereal Production (10,000 tons) 448.3/530.0/1.2
Rice Production (10,000 tons) 189.4/468.0/2.5
Seafood Harvest (10,000 tons) 92.3/303.3/3.3
Iron Ore Mining (10,000 tons) 504.1/22.7/0.05
Nonferrous Metals Mining (10,000 tons) 8.6/187.7/21.8
Automobile Production (10,000) 0.44/384.0/872.8
Steel (10,000 tons) 118.1/4,843.3/41.0
Cement (10,000 tons) 615.5/4,920.9/8.0
Fertilizer (10,000 tons) 45.4/318.3/7.0
Chemical Products (10,000 tons) 2.9/145.7/50.2
Railways (km) 5,235/3,392/0.6
Roads (km) 25,544/102,061/4.0
Port Loading Capacity (10,000 tons) 3,700/69,213/18.7
Shipping Capacity (10,000 tons) 90.4/1,180.2/13.1

Institute for Far Easter Studies
NK Brief No. 07-8-14-1

The second inter-Korean summit meeting is coming up soon, scheduled to open on August 28 in Pyongyang, and interest is building regarding discussion on economic cooperation. It is true that the North is prioritizing political and military issues in order to shore up its government by normalizing relations with the United States. However, considering its serious economic woes, the ability of South Korea to offer a ‘gift package’ can significantly influence the success or failure of this summit.

It is not yet clear how economic cooperation will fit into the agenda, but Seoul and Pyongyang have been constantly discussing this issue, so some insight has been given. In particular, the ‘consumer’ North has been referring to domestic and international cooperation, and through Pyongyang’s requests, some clarity has been added to what goals could unfold during the upcoming meeting.

Energy Sector

The North Korean economy is saddled with severe shortages of electricity and fuel oil, causing production to slow and therefore stagnating consumption, putting the country into an ongoing vicious circle of economic depression. North Korea possesses facilities to produce 7.7 million kW of steam- and hydro-electric power, but in reality is incapable of operating these facilities at more than 30%.

The opinion that expansion of North Korea’s electrical infrastructure is necessary, not only for the North, but also for South Korea, is gaining strength. South Korean projects to develop North Korean mines and import its coal have been delayed due to a lack of electrical power. In the future, enterprises looking to set up in North Korea will also require a steady supply of electricity.

In what way the two Koreas will cooperate on energy is not yet known, but North Korea is sticking to its demand for light-water nuclear reactors. If construction were restarted on the reactors begun by the now-defunct Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization (KEDO), North Korea could quickly have not only the energy production amount currently available, but an additional 2 million kW, as well.

North Korea’s power facilities are in a state of deterioration, but the number of facilities in the North are adequate for the current state of the economy, so a plan for the restoration of generation and transmission facilities, or the 2 million kW of electrical power offered by the South Korean government two years ago could be considered sufficient.

Natural Resource and Infrastructure Development

One other highly probable agenda item on inter-Korean economic cooperation will be development of natural resources. This is because a model in which North Korea’s relatively abundant underground natural resources are developed, and in which these resources being used by South Korean businesses, would create a ‘win-win’ result for both Seoul and Pyongyang.

According to a report given by the Korea Resources Corporation at a conference last year, North Korea possesses upward of forty different valuable minerals, including iron-ore. Analysis of these North Korean resources shows that a considerable amount of South Korea’s 40 trillion won (430 billion USD) worth of mineral imports per year could be brought in from North Korea instead.

As development projects in North Korea’s graphite mines are already underway, and the import of North Korean anthracite is being considered in order to meet quickly growing demand for charcoal in the South, cooperation in the natural resource sector appears to be one of the core points to inter-Korean economic cooperation.

As for North Korea’s railways, the heart of the country’s distribution infrastructure, completion of the section of track on the Kyungui Line between Kaesong Station and Moonsan Station, as well as the section of the East Sea Line between Mt. Kumgang Station and Jejin Station, means that the infrastructure for regular service between the two countries is now in place, although talks regarding the details of such regular service are not being held.

If regular service on these two lines between North and South Korea can be achieved, expensive transportation costs can be reduced, and of course, in the future, connection of the railway with continental rail networks such as the Trans-Siberian Rail and the Trans-China Rail would help to enable the Korean Peninsula to emerge as the hub of North East Asian distribution.

Furthermore, considering the fact that North Korea’s mining facilities and technology, as well as its ports, loading facilities, and other transportation infrastructure, are severely lacking, a plan linking development of natural resources to projects developing infrastructure also appears viable. It is also already known, to some extent, the nature of North Korean needs in its infrastructure sector, and if this upcoming summit closes successfully, it is expected that an inventory of these needs will become more concrete.

Vitalizing Kaesong Industrial Complex

The Kaesong Industrial Complex (KIC) is also an important undertaking. At the moment, a problem has arisen concerning the construction of a second KIC, but even if only the originally planned 26.4 million square-meter complex is built, the fact is that currently the first 3.3 million square-meter stage is complete, and considering that it employs North Korean labor, this is no easy feat. Companies moving into the KIC are asking that easy communication with South Korea and simplified import procedures be prioritized.

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
8/1/2007

INTER-KOREAN RELATIONS

Following two days of talks between economic representatives of the two Koreas at the Kaesong Industrial Complex, South Korea announced on July 7 that it would begin shipping raw materials to the North in exchange for DPRK natural resources. South Korea shipped 800,000 USD of polyester fabric on July 25, and is set to send the rest of the materials by the end of November. North Korea accepted South Korean prices for the goods, and will pay transportation, cargo working, and demurrage costs, as well. South Korea will pay for shipping, insurance, and the use of port facilities. On 28 July, a South Korean delegation left for the North in order to conduct on-site surveys of three zinc and magnesite mines. The team will spend two weeks in North Korea.

It was reported on 17 July that North Korea proposed a joint fishing zone north of the ‘Northern Limit Line’ dividing North and South territorial waters to the west of the peninsula. Seoul turned down the offer.

Inter-Korean military talks broke down early on 26 July after only three days of negotiations as North Korea insisted on the redrawing of the Northern Limit Line.

North Korea demanded on 27 July that workers in the Kaesong Industrial Complex be given a 15 percent pay raise. The North Korean workers will not work overtime, weekends or holidays beginning in August unless the raise is granted.

It was reported by the Korea International Trade Association on 26 July that inter-Korean trade was up 28.6 percent in the first six months of 2007, totaling 720 million USD.

RUSSIA-DPRK INVESTMENT

It was reported on 19 July that Russia and North Korea have agreed to connect Khasan and Najin by rail, enlisting investment from Russian oil companies interested in an inactive refinery at Najin Port capable of processing up to 120,000 barrels per day. The project is estimated to cost over two billion USD.

MONGOLIA-DPRK RELATIONS

During a four-day visit to Mongolia by Kim Yong-nam beginning on 20 July, the two countries signed protocols on cooperation on health and science, trade and sea transport, and labor exchange issues. This follows on the heals of an agreement to allow South Korean trains to travel through North Korean territory on to Mongolia in route to Russia and Europe.

JAPAN-DPRK PROPAGANDA

Japan took one step further to recover abductees in North Korea this month when the government began broadcasting propaganda into the DPRK intended for Japanese citizens. The broadcasts are made in Korean and Japanese (30 minutes each) daily, and updated once per week.

U.S.-DPRK PEACE PROSPECTS

U.S. Ambassador to the ROK Alexander Vershbow stated that Washington was prepared to negotiate a permanent peace regime on the Korean Peninsula by the end of the year if North Korea were to completely abandon its nuclear ambitions.

EGYPT-DPRK INVESTMENT

The Egyptian company Orascom Construction Industries announced a 115 million USD deal with North Korea’s state-owned Pyongyang Myongdang Trading Corporation to purchase a 50 percent state in Sangwon Cement. To put this in perspective, the deal in worth more than four times the amount of frozen DPRK funds that had caused six-party talks to break down and delayed the implementation of the February 13 agreement.

NORTH KOREAN SOCIETY

The Economist reported on 7 July that, according to foreigners living in the North’s capital, concern for petty law appears to be weakening. Citizens are reportedly smoking in smoke-free zones, sitting on escalator rails, and even blocking traffic by selling wares on the streets.

It was reported on July 11 that a letter sent earlier in the year by the North Korean Red Cross indicated severe shortages of medical supplies. The letter stated that North Korea would accept any medicine, even if it was past expiration, and accept all consequences for any problems that arose from using outdated supplies. The (South) Korea Pharmaceutical Manufacturers Association had no choice but to reject the request.

Events were held on July 11 in North Korea in order to promote women’s health and well-being issues. Marking World Population Day, a North Korean official stated that the DPRK has cooperated with the UN Population Fund since 1986, and is now in the fourth phase of cooperation.

Seeing entertainment venues as a “threat to society”, North Korean security forces have been implementing a shutdown of karaoke bars and Internet cafes. These venues mainly cater to traders in the northern regions of the country.

It was reported on July 13 that construction of North Korea’s first all-English language university was nearing completion. The Pyongyang University of Science and Technology, funded largely by ROK and U.S. Christian evangelical groups, will hold 2600 students and offer undergraduate and post-graduate degrees in business administration, information technology, and agriculture.

Local elections were held on 29 July for DPRK provincial, city, and country People’s Assemblies. 100 percent of 27,390 candidates were approved with a 99.82 percent turnout reported.

Now available on Google Earth! 
(click above to download to your own Google Earth)

North Korea Uncovered v.3

Google Earth added a high-resolution overlay of the area between Pyongyang and Nampo.  In it, most of the Koguryo tombs listed with UNESCO are now distinguishable.  In addition, viewers can see the latest Kim Jong Il palace (including a yacht), the DPRK’s premier golf course, and the Chinese-built Taean Glass factory.  I have also made some progress in mapping out the DPRK electricity grid.

This is the most authoritative map of North Korea that exists publicly today.  Agriculture, aviation, cultural institutions, manufacturing, railroad, energy, politics, sports, military, religion, leisure, national parks…they are all here, and will captivate anyone interested in North Korea for hours.

Naturally, I cannot vouch for the authenticity of many locations since I have not seen or been to them, but great efforts have been made to check for authenticity. In many cases, I have posted sources, though not for all. This is a thorough compilation of lots of material, but I will leave it up to the reader to make up their own minds on the more “controversial” locations. In time, I hope to expand this further by adding canal and road networks.

I hope this post will launch a new interest in North Korea. There is still plenty more to learn, and I look forward to hearing about improvements that can be made.

Joong Ang Daily
7/10/2007

South Korea will start sending 50,000 tons of rice aid to North Korea by road next week, as part of its promised loan of 400,000 tons of rice, officials said yesterday.

While 350,000 tons of rice will be delivered by sea, 30,000 tons will be delivered via rail in the west of the Korean Peninsula, and another 20,000 tons will be delivered via an east coast rail line, a Unification Ministry official said.

The two Koreas conducted a historic test of the reconnected railways across the border in mid-May.

South Korea resumed shipping rice aid to North Korea in late June after more than a year’s hiatus, as the North took steps toward nuclear dismantlement. The aid, which consists of 250,000 tons of imported rice and 150,000 tons of domestic rice, will be made over the next five months.

“The rice aid to North Korea via the overland route will be made over five weeks starting next Friday,” the official said.

North Korea is supposed to pay back the $152-million rice loan over 20 years after a 10-year grace period at an annual interest rate of 1 percent.

South Korea resumed shipments of fertilizer and other emergency aid to the North in late March, but withheld the loan of 400,000 tons of rice as an inducement for North Korea to start implementing a landmark agreement reached in the six-nation talks in February.

In early June, inter-Korean ministerial talks ended without tangible results after North Korea protested the South’s decision to withhold rice aid until the North took steps toward nuclear dismantlement.

South Korea suspended all food and fertilizer aid to North Korea after the North conducted missile tests in July.

Resumption of aid was stymied due to the North’s nuclear bomb test last October, but the two sides agreed to put inter-Korean projects back on track in early March. The last rice shipment was made in early 2006.

A poor harvest in 2006, disastrous summer flooding and a 75 percent fall in donor assistance from abroad have dealt severe blows to the impoverished North, according to World Food Program officials.

A recent think tank report said North Korea could run short of up to one-third of the food it needs this year if South Korea and other countries withhold aid. Data from the WFP and the Unification Ministry show that the North will need between 5.24 million tons and 6.47 million tons of food this year.

Daily NK
Kim Min Se
7/9/2007

Pyongsung, a city located in the province of South Pyongan has recently been targeted as a scientific city transformed into distribution hub.

In the late 1960’s, North Korean authorities established Pyongsung as an area for scientific research with a population of 300,000.

In Pyongsung, there are 25 scientific research centers beginning with a nature centre. Further, there is Pyongsung Scientific University and a training centre for scientists and engineers. Pyongsung lies on the outer-skirts of Pyongyang near the districts of Soonan, Samsuk and Yongsung.

Park Chan Joo (pseudonym) a North Korean tradesman on business in Dandong, China introduced the changes occurring in Pyongsung in a telephone conversation with reporters.

Park currently works as an employee for the Myungjin Trade Company and imports goods needed for everyday living into North Korea.

Park said, “All goods made from China pass through Shinuiju and are generally dispatched from Pyongsung to each region for sale. This includes eastern regions such as Hamheung and Wonsan. Of course traders from Sariwon, Haeju and Nampo in southern provinces also come to Pyongsung to receive their goods.”

Regarding Pyongsung which developed into a distributor of imports, Park said, “The delivery cost is double if goods made from China pass through Shinuiju and are delivered directly to eastern and southern regions. However, stopping over at Pyongsung can make a profit on time and cost effective.”

Further, he said, “It’s close to eastern regions and in the vicinity of southern regions. This area has increasingly become an intermediary wholesalers district with the rise of warehouses.”

Park said, “We are located right next to Pyongyang where the population is greatest. Also, many Pyongyang citizens with high standards of living compared to other regions come and buy the goods.”

“It only takes about one hour to travel from Pyongyang to Pyongsung via car or train. Tradesmen and citizens must obtain a travel permit to enter Pyongyang, but any North Korean citizen can easily come to Pyongsung with an ordinary identification card. Nowadays, you can travel to any special district (excluding Pyongyang and border regions) as long as you have an identification card” he added.

Also, Park said “There are more and more people wanting to living in Pyongsung because of trade” and informed, “All this happened as Pyongsung changed into a centre for wholesalers. Even up until a few years ago, it wasn’t so hard to live in Pyongsung, but now you have to pay thousands of dollars to move in the area to Pyongsung’s People’s Safety Agency (police).”

As Pyongsung emerged into a distributors haven, more and more long distance bus services have been operated connecting rural districts to Pyongsung city.

Kim Jong Hoon (pseudonym) a Shinuiju resident who came to Dandong to visit his relatives said, “People with money hire second hand buses made from China and register the vehicle at the traffic registry and operate the services while offering some profits” and “It takes 3 days to get from Shinuiju to Dancheon in South Hamkyung. It took me 3 days to go to Pyongsung, then from Pyongsung to Wonsan and then Wonsan to Dancheon.”

Presently, the only direct bus services in operation from Pyongsung are to Shinuiju, Wonsan, Sariwon, Nampo and Haeju.

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
NK Brief No. 07-7-9-1
9/7/2007

The North Korean city of Pyongsung, situated in the South Pyongan province, is undergoing a transformation. Previously known as the center of North Korean scientific research, it is now becoming a distribution hub for goods imported from neighboring China. Pyongsung, with a population of approximately 30,000, was established by DPRK authorities in the mid 1960s in order to serve as a center for scientific studies. It is a satellite city on the outskirts of Pyongyang, bordering the Soonan, Samsuk, and Yongsung areas of the capital. The Institute of Natural Sciences and 24 other scientific research centers are located there, along with the Pyongsung College of Science and numerous scientific and technical training facilities.

These days, most Chinese imports being brought into the country through Shinuiju are coming though Pyongsung before being sold to various regions throughout the country. Traders from the east-coast cities such as Hamheung and Wonsan, as well as Sariwon, Haeju, Nampo and other areas regularly travel to Pyongsung in order to stock up on goods.

Located close to eastern cities and bordering southern provinces, Pyongsung is becoming the new distribution center of Chinese goods due to the considerably lower cost of delivering wares through Shinuiju and directly to these regions. This new route is much more lucrative in terms of both cost and time. Therefore, the number of wholesalers erecting warehouses and filling orders in the city has been growing quickly.

Pyongyang, the capital city with a population greater than any other city in the North and a higher standard of living than the rest of the country, is only one hour away by train or car, and so many Pyongyang residents have been purchasing high-end goods from there.

Traders and ordinary North Koreans need a travel permit with an approval number in order to enter Pyongyang, but anyone can easily travel to Pyongsung with only a general registration permit. In recent times, North Koreans can travel throughout the country with only a resident permit, with the exception of some particularly sensitive areas such as the border region or the capital city. Recently the number of people wishing to live in Pyongsung in order to trade has been on the rise. Only a few years ago, it was relatively easy to move to Pyongsung, but today someone wishing to relocate in this new market must hand over several thousand dollars. 

Joong Ang Daily
5/28/2007

Russia has its own dreams of a cross-border railway, linking its tracks to North Korea.

The former communist country has signed a non-binding deal with the communist country to rebuild a section of railway from the Russian border station of Khasan to the North Korean port of Najin, a Russian radio station reported yesterday.

Representatives of the Russian Railways and the North’s Ministry of Railways signed the memorandum last April at the end of the four-day talks held in Pyongyang, the Voice of Russia said.

A container terminal in Najin is the end goal of the new joint venture. After the repairs and reconstruction are completed, the two sides plan to ship freight from Northeast Asia to Russia and Europe, it said.

To solve technical and financial issues connected with this project, working groups will be set up. The first meeting is scheduled in Pyongyang next month.

After resolving practical issues, the two sides plan to organize a meeting of the leaders of the two countries’ railways to sign an agreement.

The restoration of the railway from Khasan to Najin will make it possible in the future to link the Trans Korean Railway to the Trans Siberian Railway, according to Russian media reports.

On May 17, two trains crossed the Military Demarcation Line dividing the two Koreas for the first time since the end of the 1950-53 Korean War. South Korea hopes the historic test runs will lead to the connection by railway of the Korean Peninsula, China and Europe.

According to the Joong Ang Daily (2007-5-21):

It must have been the most expensive train ride in history. A ticket to cross the border between the two Koreas, a 90-minute journey over 30 kilometers, cost more than 2.7 billion won ($2.9 million) per person last week.

On Thursday, 200 South Koreans boarded two trains on the reconnected Gyeongui and Donghae lines on the west and east sides of the peninsula to chug across the Demilitarized Zone in a show of potential unity. The cost to South Korea, so far, has been 545.4 billion won to reconnect the sections of the cross-border railway severed by the Korean War.

While there are no concrete plans for further runs, the South Korean government has dreams of an inter-Korean rail network that would help the peninsula, cut freight shipment costs dramatically and link Korea by rail to the vast markets of China and the natural resources of Russia.

But to get there from here, the money spent so far on the test run is a pittance. Assuming that the enormous political obstacles to dealing with the North could be overcome, experts say it could cost as much as $10 billion to overhaul the slow, obsolete and backward rail infrastructure of North Korea.

That has not stopped some officials from insisting it can happen. On May 14, Unification Minister Lee Jae-joung announced a three-step plan for an inter-Korean railroad.

The first step would be to use a section of the Gyeongui Line, connecting Seoul and Shinuiju in the North, to serve the Kaesong Industrial Complex project. Transporting goods in and out of Kaesong and allowing North Korean workers to commute to the inter-Korean industrial complex by train is part of the plan.

The next step would be expanding use of the Gyeongui Line up to Kaesong for South Koreans, so that commuters to the complex and South Korean tourists visiting Kaesong could ride the train.

And finally, the South wants to operate trains on a regular basis between Seoul and Pyongyang.

“As of now, providing transportation for goods and commuters to Kaesong and allowing Mount Kumgang tourists to travel by train are current demands,” Lee said at the briefing. The Donghae Line, running between Yangyang and Anbyon in the North, will be used for the Mount Kumgang trip.

“More than 10 billion won worth of goods is produced in Kaesong,” Lee said. “More than 13,000 North Koreans are working there and commuting has become a serious issue.”

Lee has even more ambitious dreams ― the building of a rail line to connect Korea with Europe. “The reconnected inter-Korean railroad will be connected to Russia, one of the largest reserves of natural resources in the world, and China, to provide new economic opportunities,” Lee said. “We need a serious discussion on this with the North.”

Lee, however, admitted that there are enormous obstacles. Gaining the cooperation of the North’s hard-line military, which has been reluctant to open the border to train crossings, and modernization of the outdated North Korean rail infrastructure are among them.

Continuing his drumbeat for the project, after the test run, Lee said South Korea will gladly pay for updating the North’s railroad network ― and cost is no object. “No matter how much it will cost, it is an investment for our economy,” Lee said Friday. “The research is ongoing to estimate the cost, so it is hard to make the number public.”

Estimates vary widely about the cost of modernizing the North’s railroads. Lim Jae-gyeong, a researcher at the Korea Transport Institute, estimated that upgrading the North’s sagging rail networks, for both the Gyeongui and Donghae lines, would cost from 6.5 trillion won to 8 trillion won.

Kim Gyeong-jung, the team leader for inter-Korean railroad networks at the Ministry of Construction and Transportation, cited a Russian report that estimated it would cost up to $3.5 billion “to modernize the railroads in the North and connect them with the Trans-Siberian Railroad.”

Ahn Byung-min of the Korea Transport Institute put the figure at $10 billion for the project, also citing previous Russian reports.

Russia is enthusiastic about the prospects, though, and it conducted three surveys of the North’s railroad infrastructure between 2001 and 2003. The project may accelerate when the two Koreas and Russia begin railroad talks next month.

“We are pushing to hold talks with Kim Yong-sam, the North’s railroad minister, and Vladimir Yakunin, president of the state-run Russian Railways company, at the end of next month in Pyongyang,” said Lee Chul, head of the Korea Railroad Corporation. “The South and Russia have already agreed and the North responded positively.”

The meeting will focus on linking a trans-Korean railway with the trans-Siberia railway. By linking to the Russian lines, Vladivostok could be reached directly by rail from Busan. Researchers say the connection would enable freight to be shipped from Busan to Moscow by rail in just eight days. The transportation cost would be half of the current rate for sea shipments, which is about $600 for a 20-foot container.

The immediate challenge is the infrastructure. Rail is the backbone of North Korea’s transportation system, Ahn said. About 60 percent of passenger traffic and 90 percent of freight is carried by train. With two main rail lines running on the east and west sides of the country, Ahn said, the North Koreans have tried unsuccessfully to connect the systems since the 1970s.

“As of late 2005, the North had about 5,248 kilometers of rail, but 98 percent of them are single-track lines,” Ahn said, meaning that the traffic that can be carried is limited to one train at a time. “Most of the other infrastructure, such as bridges, tunnels, stations and communication systems, is also extremely outdated.”

The trains also run at very slow speeds, between 30 and 60 kilometers an hour. “The speed has not changed much since 1956,” Ahn said. “From Pyongyang to Shinuiju, the distance is 223.6 kilometers. By express, it would take about five hours and five minutes, so the average speed is about 40 kilometers per hour,” Ahn said. “But the regular trains take more than 11 hours.” He noted that there are also no set timetables and service is erratic and sometimes dangerous.

Ahn, who has visited North Korea several times to examine the fraying rail network, provided some extreme examples of how the North tries to cope. “Russia and China often provide food aid to the North via trains,” Ahn said. “When train cars from the two countries arrive, the North, under bilateral treaties, must send back the trains within six months. Rarely are the actual train cars returned, instead China and Russia often receive older train cars ready to retire from service.”

About 2,000 train cars sent from China and Russia have thus been marked as “made in North Korea” and put to use, Ahn said.

“North Korea’s founder Kim Il Sung once said the operation of a railroad is like the circulation of blood in the human body,” Ahn said, “Based on that expression, you could say that North Korea’s rail network is a patient suffering from a serious circulatory disease.”

Read the full story here:
Inter-Korean railroad faces huge obstacles
Joong Ang Daily
Ser Myo-ja
5/21/2007

Korea Times
Kim Yon-se
5/17/2007

Senior officials of South Korea, North Korea and Russia will likely meet soon to discuss linking the Trans-Korean Railway (TKR) and the Trans-Siberian Railway (TSR), the chief executive of the Korea Railroad Corp. (KORAIL) said Thursday.

The three countries plan to hold a second round of talks for railway cooperation in Pyongyang in late June, said KORAIL President Lee Churl.

In a meeting with reporters in Munsan, north of Seoul, Lee said, “We’ve already reached an agreement with Russia and received a positive reply from the North.”

If the North accepts the proposal, Lee will meet his North Korean and Russian counterparts to discuss the matter on the basis of the first tripartite meeting in Russia in March 2006.

The connection of TKR and TSR, dubbed the “Iron Silk Road,” is expected to bring enormous economic benefits to the two Koreas and Russia.

Experts say it is expected to cut logistic costs as well as freight delivery times substantially.

First of all, inter-Korean projects including tours to Mt. Geumgang or Gaeseong, an ancient capital city in North Korea, will likely be activated .

Freight transportation fares between Incheon and Nampo in the North are expected to fall by 25 percent on average by utilizing the railway instead of ships.

It takes about 30 days and costs $2,213 for conveying 1 TEU (20-foot equivalent units) of freight between Busan and Moscow by ship. In comparison, it would take about 15 days and $1,822 if the railways were linked.

The Busan New Port has recently been designed to make Korea a logistics hub in Northeast Asia.

The port is likely to provide another advantage when the railroad among the two Koreas and Russia is connected.

It will become both the starting and ending point of the “Iron Silk Road,” crossing the Eurasian continent via the Trans-Siberian, Trans-Manchurian and Trans-China railways.

The port authority plans to build a logistics complex on a 1.2 million-square-meter lot in the northern container pier of the new port by 2008.

There has been a plethroa of articles on the ROK/DPRK train crossing.  Here is a grab-bag of facts and sources:

Joong Ang Daily
5/15/2007
Unification Minister Lee Jae-joung expressed hope that regular inter-Korean rail services would transport workers to an industrial complex in the North’s city of Kaesong as well as serve as a mode of transportation for South Korean tourists at the Mount Kumgang resort.  However, North Korea has only agreed to one test run.

The sticking point was the number of passengers aboard the trains. South Korea stressed the need for an equal number of North Koreans, but North Korea declined the offer, citing unspecified reasons, ministry officials said. The two sides will exchange passenger lists via an inter-Korean economic office in Kaesong tomorrow.

The two Koreas are set to conduct test runs on a 27.3-kilometer (17-mile) line between Munsan Station and Kaesong Station in the western section, and on a 25.5-kilometer line between Jejin Station and Kumgang Station in the eastern section.

Rare experience aboard N. Korean train across the border
Yonhap
Sohn Suk-joo
5/17/2007

At the urging of North Korean conductors, 100 South Koreans and 50 North Koreans boarded a five-car train at 11:25 a.m. With no speaker system at Kumgangsan Station at the North’s scenic mountain along the east coast, conductors repeated “Please board the train” through a loudspeaker mounted upon a South Korean-made Hyundai Starex utility vehicle.

Painted green on the main body and the roof a faint gray, the facade of the train was far from modern. “The train looks like South Korea’s obsolete third-class train, but its ability is better than that,” said Lim Jong-il, a South Korean official at the Ministry of Construction and Transportation.

South Korean Construction Minister Lee Yong-sup, Kim Yong-sam, the North’s railway minister, and some 20 South and North Korean journalists crowded into the second car of the train. The smell of new paint assailed the nostrils upon ascending the steps, while a pair of portraits of Kim Il-sung and his son Kim Jong-il hung on the wall above the door.

The seating arrangement was face-to-face, and refreshments for passengers were set on a small table in front of the window — one lemon-lime soda, one strawberry juice, one bottled water, two apples and a pear. North Korean female attendants served a cup of ginseng tea for passengers later.

The upright, ivory-colored vinyl seats were a little bit uncomfortable and did not recline, but the cushions were softer than they appeared to be.

Outside the window, a uniformed North Korean conductor waved a red flag and goose-stepped past the train, which signaled the impending departure. A few North Korean security officers came inside to check the number of passengers and asked journalists jostling for position to sit down.   

At 11:27 a.m. a long whistle sounded, reminiscent of an old-time steam locomotive. The train spluttered back and forth several times and then slowly started forward. “North Korean trains usually whistle a lot,” a South Korean transportation official said. 

North Korean middle school students, who attended a ceremony, started to wave their hands, and South Korean passengers responded in kind. The train moved out of Kumgangsan Station at the speed of 10 kilometers per hour, and North Koreans working nearby just looked at the train without reacting in a friendly manner.

Some 50 meters away from the railway on the right side, a paved road appeared as the scenic Mount Geumgang faded from sight. Rice paddies were waiting for rice seedlings to be planted, but no peasant was seen working outside.

Unexpectedly, well wishers were South Korean tourists traveling to the Mount Geumgang resort in a convoy of eight buses. “At this time of the day tourist buses go to the resort,” a South Korean official said.

At 11:30 a.m. the stretch of hills and mountains continued, and the clouds moved quickly against the blue sky, cleansed from the previous day’s rain.

A few Toyota jeeps driven by soldiers, military jeeps and trucks drove parallel with the train and then fell behind. North Korean soldiers were stationed at the checkpoints of major intersections.

Then the track turned sharply, a rare occurrence on South Korean track. The sharp turns came again and again, and a woman peeked outside the window at a nearby village.

The overall atmosphere was friendly, a throwback to a picnic in the 1970s-80s on a slow, squeaking train. Hills and mountains passed by, and splendid pine trees of all kinds of shapes. After awhile the Nam River appeared on the right side of the train. At one village, some 10 residents came out and looked over the communal wall to watch the passing train.

At 11:50 a.m. the train passed Samilpo Station. The painted name on the station was very small, like Kumgangsan Station, and an oversized portrait of Kim Il-sung hung on the front of the station, along with pro-communist and cult propaganda slogans.

The train crossed the river on a bridge restored with steel plates provided by South Korea. Outside the window, North Korean tourist attractions such as Haegumgang and Samilpo were seen a little farther away.

At 11:50 a.m. some passengers pushed up the windows, and the unpolluted air coming through the open windows refreshed them. A group of 10 North Korean soldiers stood guarding a storage house of diesel engine trains built for the railway test run. There was no other train in sight.

The train slowed down at Kamho Station, where North Korean customs officials were stationed. It was 11:55 a.m.

Around 12:00 p.m. four customs officials and two conductors boarded each car of the train. One of them shouted, “We fervently welcome you who have become the first passengers of the train! Now we will start customs clearance procedures.”

Conductors checked the identities of the passengers and digital cameras. They asked a passenger to delete a photo of portraits of Kim Il-sung and Kim Jong-il that had been blurred from the shaking of the camera.

At 12:15 p.m. the conductors suddenly moved to the exit and disembarked. They must have gotten orders to let it pass, as the inspection took longer than expected. The train started to move again right away.

“Now you will see an outpost about 200 meters. It is the Military Demarcation Line,” said Kim Kyong-jung, chief of the inter-Korean railway team at the Ministry of Construction and Transportation.

A sharp whistle blew, and the train picked up speed, double its previous pace. The shaking was palpable, but not enough to affect the bottles on the small table. With the speed increasing, the frequency of the whistle’s call also increased.

In five minutes, the train passed the Northern Limit Line and went into the Demilitarized Zone. At 12:21 p.m., it passed the Military Demarcation Line to roars of applause. The train slowed a bit and the passengers became quiet, awaiting arrival.

At 12:25 p.m., a South Korean tourist observatory appeared, and some 200 tourists on the porch waved their hands eagerly, welcoming the North Korean train. Wide paved roads came into view and the train arrived at Jejin Station five minutes later. Amid the loud sound of a welcoming brass band and the cheering crowd, the train stopped at a South Korean station for the first time in more than half a century.

Trains cross inter-Korean border for first time in over 50 years
Yonhap
5/17/2007

A North Korean train traveling on reconnected track along the east coast of the Korean Peninsula on Thursday crossed the heavily armed border to return to its point of departure after a brief stay here.

At the same time, a South Korean train returned to the South in the west of the Korean Peninsula.

Earlier in the day, the two trains, one carrying 100 South Koreans and the other 50 North Koreans, crossed the Military Demarcation Line (MDL) dividing the two countries for the first time in more than half a century.

“It took more than half a century to cross this short, approximately 20-kilometer distance. We have to prevent anyone from blocking the railways. They were so hard to reconnect,” Kim Yong-sam, North Korea’s railway minister, said in a luncheon speech after arriving here.

In response, South Korean Construction Minister Lee Yong-sup hailed the test run of the cross-border railways, suggesting South and North Korea cooperate in promoting the mutual interest and prosperity of the Korean people.

At 11:30 a.m., Lee, who led the 100-member delegation to North Korea Thursday morning, boarded the North Korean train in Kumgangsan Station near the scenic Mount Geumgang resort for a test run on a 25.6-kilometer track in the eastern section of the peninsula.

At the same time, Kwon Ho-ung, chief councilor of the North Korean Cabinet, who had led the 50-member delegation to the South, boarded the South Korean train at Munsan Station in the western side of the peninsula on a restored 27.3-kilometer track, along with his South Korean counterpart, Lee Jae-joung.

Before the trains departed, South and North Korea held ceremonies to mark the historic event at Kumgangsan and Munsan stations, respectively.

“I hope it will contribute to forming a joint economic community and making balanced development on the Korean Peninsula. A new curtain of peace has been raised on the peninsula,” Lee said in a commemorative speech.

In his speech, Kwon said that North Korea will make every effort to make sure that the “train of unification” runs along a “track” of inter-Korean collaboration, with its emphasis on peace and understanding.

“Right at this moment, however, the challenge from divisive forces inside and outside is continuing. We should not waiver or be derailed from the track of national sovereignty and inter-Korean collaboration,” Kwon said.

The one-time test run came only after North Korea reluctantly agreed to provide military security arrangements last week. The tracks have been set to undergo tests since they were restored in 2003, while a set of parallel roads has been in use since 2005 for South Koreans traveling to the North.

In May 2006, North Korea abruptly called off the scheduled test runs, apparently under pressure from its hard-line military. The cancellation led to the mothballing of an economic accord in which North Korea would receive US$80 million worth of light industry raw materials from the South in return for its natural resources. North Korea’s subsequent missile and nuclear weapons tests further clouded hopes of implementing the agreement.

The reconnection of roads and train lines severed during the 1950-53 Korean War was one of the tangible inter-Korean rapprochement projects agreed upon following the historic summit between then South Korean President Kim Dae-jung and North Korean leader Kim Jong-il in 2000.

South Korea hopes to use the restored railways to help North Korean workers commute to a joint industrial complex in the North Korean border city of Kaesong as well as to transport South Korean tourists to the North’s scenic Mount Geumgang.

The Gyeongui (Seoul-Sinuiju) line cutting across the western section of the border was severed on June 12 in 1951, while the Donghae (East Coast) line crossing the eastern side was cut shortly after the outbreak of the Korean War.

South and North Korea used radio communication between Dorasan Station in the South and Panmun Station in the North for the western rail line, and between the South’s Jejin Station and the North’s Kamho Station for the eastern one. The stations are closest ones to the border on both sides.

In March, the two Koreas agreed to put humanitarian and economic inter-Korean projects back on track just days after North Korea promised to take the first steps toward its nuclear dismantlement in return for energy aid and other concessions from the other five members of the six-party talks.

South and North Korea are still technically at war, as the Korean War ended in an armistice, not a peace treaty.

Korean Train Crossing Seen as Sign of Progress
New York Times
Choe Sang-Hun
5/17/2007

[excerpts]

South Korea has long dreamed of building a trans-Korea railroad that would connect its train network to China and to the Trans-Siberian Railway in the former Soviet Union, creating a so-called Iron Silk Road.

North Korea blocks overland access to Asia, which makes South Koreans “feel as if we live in an island,” the South Korean transportation minister, Lee Yong Sup, said yesterday.

A trans-Korea railroad would offer a faster and cheaper way for South Korea to bring exports that are now shipped by sea to China and Europe. It would also provide a shortcut for Russian oil and other natural resources transported to South Korea. Such a rail system would save South Korea $34 to $50 a ton in shipping costs, said Lim Jae Kyung, a researcher at the Korea Transport Institute.

But before the dream of a trans-Korea rail system comes true, transportation analysts and government officials say, years of confidence-building talks and billions of dollars in investment in North Korea’s decrepit rail system will be needed.

Officials acknowledge that such a dream will not be made real until after North Korea gives up its nuclear weapons and improves its human rights record. Those moves would help build public support in South Korea for large investments across the border and would open the way for international development aid.

South Korean officials say a trans-Korea railroad would invigorate inter-Korean trade, which tripled from $430 million in 2000 to $1.35 billion last year.

It would also bring cash to North Korea, which could collect an estimated $150 million a year in transit fees from trains that pass through its territory, according to some estimates.

But it is unclear whether or when North Korea might agree to regular train service across the border.

Procuring international aid to renovate the rail network and letting trains from one of Asia’s most vibrant economies, carrying exports and tourists, rumble through its isolated territory could threaten the North Korean regime, analysts and others say.

The agreement came after South Korea promised to send North Korea 400,000 tons of rice, as well as $80 million worth of raw materials for shoes, soap and textiles.

South Korea has spent 544.5 billion won, or $589 million, on reconnecting the rail system, including 180 billion won in equipment, tracks and other material loaned to North Korea.

South Korean policy makers have called for patience in working toward reconciliation with the North. They have often been accused by conservative politicians and civic groups of giving in to North Korea’s strategy of extracting economic aid for every step toward reconciliation.

“This is a precious first step for a 1,000-mile journey,” Mr. Lee, the unification minister, said today.

South Korea has seen some tangible results in its overtures to the North in recent years.

The North Korean military cleared mines and moved some of its weapons to make room for the rail system and the Gaesong industrial complex. In addition, South Korean factory managers commute from Seoul to Gaesong using a road that was reconnected in 2004, and South Korean buses regularly take tourists to the Diamond Mountain resort in the North.