North Korean Economy Watch

UPDATE: It looks like the  DPRK’s market for scrap metal has a human cost.

From the Daily NK:

Train wrecks which occurred in Yangkang Province last month were found to be caused by stolen railroad spikes, a source from the province said.

“The train derailed because somebody had stolen railroad spikes. Four passenger coaches fell into ravine, claiming hundreds of casualties,” said the source in a phone interview with DailyNK on April 9.

[T]he source said that the March 24 accident took place in Youngha-ri, Woonheung of Yangkang Province, not in Yanghwa-ri, Shinpo of South Hamkyung Province as reported by Daily NK on April 4.

The full update can be read here:
North Korean Train Wreck Caused by Missing Railroad Spikes
Daily NK
Lee Sung Jin
4/14/2008

ORIGINAL ARTICLE: 

Several Hundred Casualties in Train Incidents
Daily NK
Lee Sung Jin
4/7/2008

On the 24th and 27th of March, there were two cases of trains overturning, killing or seriously wounding hundreds of people in the workers’ area of Goeup, Kim Hyung Jik (a county), Yangkang Province and in Shinpo, South Hamkyung Province.

A source from North Korea, during a telephone conversation with Daily NK on the 4th, revealed that “At the end of last month, on the Hyesan-Manpo Line and Hyesan-Pyongyang Line, the two trains overturned after leaving Hyesan, causing a few hundreds casualties.”

The source said that “On the 27th of March, the No. 2 train on the Hyesan-Pyongyang was overturned around Yanghwa-ri in Shinpo and a few days earlier than that, on the 24th, the train on the Hyesan-Manpo – bringing people visiting the revolutionary memorial site – was also overturned in Kim Hyung Jik (formerly Hoochang).”

However, the cause, the whole story of the incidents, the exact spots and total casualties were not reported. The instruction to immediately produce coffins was conveyed to each city and county, according to the source.

The source explained the incident in Kim Hyung Jik on the 24th. In Goeup in Kim Hyung Jik, a carriage of trains fell off the tracks and 4 passengers and crew were killed, with dozens of passengers wounded.

The incident site in Yanghwa-ri in Shinpo is located near the light water reactor being supposed to be supported by KEDO in Kangsang-ri. Both Yanghwa and Kangsang-ri are located in Geumho Special Zone.

The source was concerned that “Due to these continuous incidents, people worry that the authorities might end up pressing espionage charges against innocent residents.”

Writing in today’s Asia Times, Dr. Leonid Petrov analyses the complexity of Russia, Rok, DPRK, and Chinese relations:

Russia and North Korea:

Territorial claims, in one form or another, involve almost all countries adjacent in this region with the exception of Russia and Korea. The Joint Russian Federation-DPRK Commission for the Demarcation of State Borders has recently completed its work by documenting and marking the 17-kilometer frontier. This strip of uninhabited and swampy land in the mouth of the Tumannaya (Tuman-gang) River plays an exceptionally important geopolitical role. It not only provides the two countries with land access to each other, but also prevents Chinese access to the East Sea (Sea of Japan).

China and North Korea: 

Here, some 50km north of the small port that forms the core of North’s Rajin-Seonbong Special Economic Zone, the interests of Russia and China are now at stake. Russia is rapidly repairing the railroad track, and China (in a similarly speedy manner) is constructing a new automobile highway, both leading from their respective borders to the port of Rajin. Russia, investing at least 1.75 billion rubles (US$72 million) into this project, seeks to strongly connect Rajin (and the rest of northern Korea) to its Trans-Siberian Railroad. China, in turn, hopes to divert the growing cargo traffic to its own territory, offering the efficient network of railroads for delivery of South Korean and Japanese goods to Central Asian and European markets. What position will the government of North Korea take in this clash of ambitions?

Russia and South Korea (energy and trade):

In 2007, the volume of the export of “black gold” from Russia to South Korea reached 38.13 million barrels (2.7 times more than in the previous year). The relative proximity of the Russian oil and gas fields is an attractive factor for Korean companies who actively search for alternatives to Middle East oil suppliers. This year South Korea will for the first time start importing natural gas from Russia. The expected volume of delivery during 2008 is 1.5 million tons (or 5.1% of South Korea’s annual demand).

and

Trade relations between Russia and Korea are steadily growing. According to customs statistics, last year Russia recorded the sharpest increase of South Korean imports (56.2% more than in 2006). Due to the inflow of “petro-dollars” the new class of nouveaux riches in Russia began actively buying Korean automobiles, cell phones, television sets and LCD monitors. South Korea exported to Russia goods worth US$8.1 billion (including $3.296 billion of automobiles, $859 million of mobile phone equipment, motor vehicles and spare parts worth $659 million). As for trade with North Korea, in 2006 Russia occupied third place after China and South Korea and absorbed 9% of the total $3.18 billion spent by the North on imports.

More on Russia/South Korea energy talk here. 

The whole article deserves reading here:
Russia lays new tracks in Korean ties
Asia Times
Leonid Petrov
3/5/2008

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
NK Brief No. 08-3-3-1
3/3/2008

In the latest issue (February 3rd) of the DPRK Cabinet bulletin, “Democratic Chosun”, it was reported that the first extended cabinet meeting of the year opened in the beginning of February, with Premier Kim Young-il presiding. The bulletin stated that the issue of accomplishing this year’s economic plans was discussed.

At the meeting, Vice Premier Kwak Bum-ki stressed that accomplishing this year’s economic goals was “essential for opening the doors to a breakthrough for building an economically strong nation,” and that it was the “fundamental task laid out before the Cabinet.” He went on to reveal the tasks and directives needed to revitalize all realms of socialist construction, which he stated was necessary to create a powerful and prosperous nation by 2012, the centennial anniversary of the birth of the late Kim Il Sung.

In particular, he called for the production of the “lifeline of socialist construction”, and specifically, electricity, coal, metal, and railways, which he referred to as the “four lines for the advance of the people’s economy.”

Accordingly, the goal of carrying out overwhelming repairs to power generation facilities, and at the same time constructing new power plants in order to increase electrical production capabilities by several hundred thousand kilowatts, was proposed.

The meeting also stressed the need for concentrating efforts on geological exploration and exploitation industries in order to reasonably development and use natural resources, for a change in production of goods necessary for daily life, and for a resolution to the people’s ‘eating problem’ alluded to in the recent New Year’s Joint Editorial.

The bulletin also reported that there was discussion on creating a new five-year plan for the development of science and technology, going as far as to say, ”the role of science and technology in the building of an economically powerful nation is decidedly large, and in order to answer the very real calls for development, [the issue of] strengthening international economic projects” was brought up.

Premier Kim Young-il, Vice-Premier Kwak Bum-ki, Chairman Kim Kwang-rin, of the Committee on National Planning, Park Nam-jil, of the Power Supply Industry Bureau, and Kim Yong-sam, from the Railways Bureau, were among cabinet ministers present.

Kang: North Korean Trade Potential
Council on Foreign Relations
12/17/2007

Last December, David C. Kang, a professor of government at Dartmouth College and an adjunct professor at Tuck Business School, discussed the North Korean economy for the Council on Foreign Relations. I have excerpted some of his comments below.

His view on the new North-South cargo train service:

It doesn’t have huge economic significance in the overall GDP of North Korea. But it does have major economic significance in the fact that what North Korea had to do in order to let a train go through was an awful lot of adjustment[…]in terms of linking up the railroad, all the ministries had to prepare.  The old [Korean Energy Development Organization] had this problem as well. [W]hen they wanted Americans and South Koreans working in North Korea to build this light-water reactor, [they] had to set up protocols [Post offices, phone calls, where they were going to stay, etc]. It is pretty significant in terms of how much they had to adjust.

He quoted the following figures on North – South trade:

From $200 million in 1998, to now exceeding $1.7 billion in 2007.   South Korea’s total trade volume is $250 billion.

His opinion on the direction of the North Korean economy:

At this point what we’re seeing is very initial steps on the part of North Korea as they try to open up reform and yet maintain control. At the same time, they are being forced into a number of institutional changes and mind-set changes that are the first step forward in this process.

His view of North Korea’s comparative advantage:

Most of the companies that have gone in—the South Korean companies that have gone in—are assembly and light manufactures, such as or textiles and light consumer goods. This is the sort of obvious point of departure. It’s not hugely capital intensive in terms of building factories, and can take advantage of North Korean cheap labor and South Korean technological advantages.

There are a lot of potential mineral resources in North Korea, which would require a whole infrastructure of legal reforms to happen before anyone would take care of them. But at this point the safest bets are the ones that are on the order of assembly and light manufactures in the North and then exporting them out.

His view of South Korea’s long term goals:

If there’s unification, or even better relations, and South Korean companies can use cheap North Korean labor, instead of having to send those factories to China or Vietnam—not only do they speak Korean, they’re culturally similar, and the labor would be cheaper.

[I]f you could reconnect the railroads, from Japan, through Pusan [South Korea], up through North Korea, then out to China and Russia, you would be linking up all these economies in a much more efficient way than they are now. So everybody wants that. But obviously there’s the political problem. And even on the infrastructure side, the North Korean rail system is so old and so decrepit, that basically it would have to be rebuilt from zero. But the potential upsides are massive, in the long run.

His view of China’s engagement:

China has been essentially as deeply involved in economic engagement with North Korea as has South Korea—and by some measures, actually more so. Whereas South Koreans just do this assembling, some Chinese companies are moving in and building full factories in the North. There’s a lot of interest in Chinese-North Korean economic relations on both sides.

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
NK Brief No. 08-2-12-1
2/12/2008

South Korean businesses currently involved in inter-Korean economic cooperation are facing many difficulties, both due to and in spite of the system in place, so that at the moment, investment in North Korea does not look much more appealing than in Vietnam or China.

The Korea Chamber of Commerce carried out a survey, titled “Business Perspective on the Direction of South-North Economic Cooperation Policy”, targeting 300 successful businesses (170 companies responded) and 200 companies currently involved in inter-Korean economic cooperation (132 companies responded). According to the results of the survey, 79.4 percent of companies involved in inter-Korean cooperation responded that they are “currently facing systemic and procedural difficulties.”

More specifically, 44.7 percent pointed to the “3-C” (commute, communication, and customs) issues, 22.4 percent pointed to “claim resolution procedures,” 14.3 percent highlighted “difficulties with financial transactions,” 11.8 percent chose the “ban on the import of strategic materials,” and 5 percent indicated that “limited markets” were the main issue.

In addition, 58 percent of responding companies noted issues not related to the system set up for inter-Korean cooperation. 36.6 percent pointed to difficulties resulting from the “lack of understanding of market economics,” 28.7 percent noted a “lack of supervision by managers,” 24.8 percent chose “uncooperative, highly tense attitudes,” and 8.9 percent pointed out “demands for quick production.”

When asked about the relative attractiveness of investment in North Korea if the current situation were maintained, as compared to Vietnam and China, only 27 percent responded, “more attractive”, while 53.7 percent, or twice as many companies, responded that investment was “impossible.”

However, 58 percent responded that, in the event the North’s nuclear issues were resolved, investment in North Korea would be “more attractive than China and Vietnam”, while only 21.7 percent responded that investment in the North would still be “impossible.”

The overall impression of these companies regarding inter-Korean cooperation is that “improvement of inter-Korean relations offers opportunities for new enterprises and is a positive influence on the South Korean economy” (65.3 percent), and 19 percent felt that cooperation would “in the future, serve as a springboard for the relaunch of the South Korean economy.” 15.7 percent of responding companies felt, however, that “there would be no substantial positive influence on the economy.”

Currently, a resolution to the North Korean nuclear issues is the most important factor, but it is imperative that pledges of the incoming ROK administration such as strengthening investment security, preparing claim resolution measures and other issues to placate business interests, and nurturing North Korean exporters, are institutionalized.

Yonhap
2/4/2008

South and North Korea agreed Monday to send a 300-strong joint cheering squad to the Beijing Olympic Games in early August, the Unification Ministry said.

One hundred and fifty people from each side will travel across the heavily armed border by train to Beijing, it said.

The agreement was made by working-level officials at a one-day meeting in Kaesong, a North Korean border city.

The two sides agreed to hold another round of talks to discuss the details of sending the joint cheering squad, the ministry said in a news release.

Hailed as a symbol of inter-Korean peace and reconciliation, the cross-border railway was reconnected in May last year for the first time in 56 years. It was severed in the early stage of the 1950-53 Korean War.

The two Koreas agreed during the second summit of their leaders in October to transport the joint cheering contingent to the Aug. 8-24 Olympics using the Gyeongui railway, which is linked to the Chinese railway system.

South Korea also hopes to connect the railway to the Trans Siberian and Trans Chinese railways so products from the world’s 13th biggest economy can be transported to Europe at lower costs and in less time.

Yoo Sang-il, a member of the Korean Olympic Committee, led the three-member South Korean delegation to the talks. Yoo’s North Korean counterpart was Hwang Chol, a department director of the North’s Council for National Reconciliation.

Yonhap
Shim Sun-ah
1/29/2008

On the first day of working-level talks in North Korea on Tuesday, the two Koreas discussed scaling back their first regular inter-Korean railway service to run in more than a half century, as the trains are often empty, South Korean officials said.

The two Koreas began the regular train service in December as a symbol of peace and rapprochement following the October summit between their leaders.

A 12-car train runs once a day on a 20-kilometer railway connecting South Korea with a North Korean train station near a joint industrial complex in Kaesong.

(more…)

Daily NK
Lee Sung Jin
1/22/2008

The citizens of Hoiryeong are worried about ongoing evacuation training they must undergo as part of a joint winter military drill with the army that began on January 17, said a source.

The winter military drill used to be held in December each year but this year it was delayed.

“People feel uneasy because of the sudden beginning of the drill and the strict regulations on the jangmadang in the cold winter,” one source reported on the 21st.

At 3 am on January 17th, in Hoiryeong, North Hamkyung Province, the North Korean army announced an emergency summons, modified the Worker and Peasant Red Guards, Local Reserve Forces and Youth Red Guard, declared a state of national preparation for war and started inspection of emergency supplies. The Local Reserve Forces rushed to occupy strategic positions and the Worker and Peasant Red Guard started a scouting drill.

During the winter military drill, ordinary citizens must leave their residential districts, taking one day’s worth of food with them, and live in an encampment for Local Reserve Forces around 8-12 km away from their homes.

The average temperature in Hoiryeong drops to around minus 10 degree Celsius in January. As defectors in Seoul testified, it is terribly hard to put up with the lack of heat at the encampments.

This drill is limited only to Hoiryeong. The source said: “It is actually a type of civil defense training. It was ordered by the People’s Safety Agency, but the army participated as well.”

This year’s drill was more intense than previous year’s. Vehicles without camouflage netting were prohibited from the streets and all citizens were forced to wear camouflage while outdoors.

The source said the drill was so similar to actual warfare that Local Reserve Forces and Worker and Peasant Red Guards wore their real rank badges.

When the drill started, factories and People’s Units in Hoiryeong began holding lectures entitled, “Let’s complete preparation for war against the American imperialists’ constant war maneuvers!”

Yonhap
12/27/2007

South Korea plans to develop two resource rich regions in North Korea that can benefit both countries and fuel cross-border economic cooperation, the government said Thursday.

The blueprint calls for more funds to be funneled into North Korea so prospective developers can conduct geological surveys and compile detailed data for future reference, the Ministry of Commerce, Industry and Energy said.

Resource-poor South Korea imports most raw materials to operate its heavy industry-centered economy. Lack of social infrastructure and mining knowhow have prevented North Korea from fully developing resources.

(more…)

Bloomberg
Lucian Kim
12/18/2007

OAO Russian Railways plans to build a $100 million container terminal in North Korea as the world’s largest rail company tries to create a land transport corridor linking Asia to Europe.

State-run Russian Railways wants to turn the North Korean port of Rajin into a hub capable of handling 320,000 containers a year for shipment across Russia to Europe, the company said in a statement distributed to reporters today.

The investment is part of a plan that originated in 2001, when North Korean leader Kim Jong Il traveled by rail from Pyongyang to Moscow to visit President Vladimir Putin. As the first step in linking the Korean peninsula to the Trans-Siberian Railway, Russian Railways is upgrading 54 kilometers (34 miles) of track from the border south of Vladivostok to Rajin.

Russian Railways will spend 1.75 billion rubles ($70 million) on improving the track, the company said. Another $100 million will be needed to turn Rajin port into a terminal capable of loading containers shipped from South Korea on to freight trains bound for Europe. The proposed terminal will be operated by a Russian-North Korean joint venture.

Delays over financing and feasibility have plagued the plan for an “Iron Silk Road.” Russian Railways Chief Executive Officer Vladimir Yakunin previously said the rail link to Rajin would be completed by the end of 2006.

The two Koreas opened regular freight train service across the demilitarized zone on Dec. 11.