North Korean Economy Watch

According to Reuters, Air China on Monday launched service to North Korea, making it the world’s only foreign airline to fly regularly to Pyongyang.

The Beijing-Pyongyang flight route was postponed by three months after Air China said preparatory work took longer than expected.

Air China will fly the return trip three times per week, making Pyongyang a Star Alliance destination, the airline grouping led by Singapore Airlines, Lufthansa and United Airlines.

Air China said previously that it saw the financial potential in the route, primarily from the Chinese tourist business.

I predicted that Air China would primarily service Chinese customers, with Westerners sticking with Air Koryo, the North Korean airline. In separate conversations with Koryo Tours and Walter Keats both tour operators expressed a preference for Air Koryo because of its flexibility and unique atmosphere, neither of which Air China can easily match. 

The time-warp effect travelers feel when boarding an Air Koryo flight, however, might be soon diminished.  Largely at the insistence of Beijing, Air Koryo has recently updated its fleet to meet international safety standards.  Although the stewardesses appearance and speaker announcement welcoming arrivals to the land of “juche paradise” will likely remain the same, the 1950’s era deco interior will certainly take on a more conventional feel. 

Source material here:
Air China launches flights to North Korea
Reuters
Simon Rabinovitch
3/31/2008

I have just been watching the VICE Guide to North Korea on VBS.tv.  I am not easily impressed with footage filmed in North Korea because, frankly, I have seen a lot of it.  Still, every now and then you catch something fairly obscure which makes the time spent watching it worthwhile. 

The guys who filmed the video had the same guide as me, Mr. Lee, which means they were traveling under the auspices of the Committee for Cultural Relations with Foreign Countries.  They have also gotten other journalists in as well (See here). Note to all the journalists out there.

Another thing I noticed was that the DPRK has made investments in upgrading their tourism facilities…even on the USS Pueblo.

In 2004, the Pueblo propaganda movie was shown on a traditional cathode television.  In 2007 it seems they have upgraded to a flat screen.  The ‘paean‘ of television technology.

Yesterday the Jong Ang Daily reported that Hyundai Asan hopes to draw more tourists to the DPRK this fall, but their forecasting record is not exactly stellar:

The number of tourists to Mount Kumgang tallied 350,000 last year. The North Korean tour unit of Hyundai Asan hopes to pull the number of visitors up to 430,000 this year, 10,000 of whom would head to Kaesong, which began tours in December, and 15,000 of whom would visit Mount Paektu, with tours slated to start in May.

Hyundai Asan had marked annual losses from 1999 until it made profits in 2005. Its 2007 profits totaled 10 billion won.

Today, Andrei Lankov, writing in the Asia Times, chimes in on his experiences with the new Kaesong Tour and gives a rationale for western participation in such activities:

The Kaesong tour is the first project which gives the average South Korean, Mr Kim or Ms Pak, an opportunity to see a semblance of North Korean life. Hitherto, only a handful of South Koreans, most of them government officials, have been able to visit North Korean cities. Now, for the first time in 60-odd years, a very limited opportunity is open for an anybody who is willing to pay a fee.

Of course, North Korean authorities went to extraordinary lengths to prevent any interaction between locals and visitors. The list of prohibited items is quite impressive. Tourists cannot take any kind of printed material, computers and computer equipment, mobile phones, radios and video cameras, universal serial bus and other memory devices. The old film cameras are banned as well. Only digital cameras are allowed into the North, since at the border check point North Korean police officials check every single picture taken by every single tourist.

Despit the limitations, Lankov still feels that these types of exchanges are ultimately worthwhile…

The extraordinary security measures undertaken by the North Korean authorities ensure that only a very limited number of northerners are allowed to approach the visitors. Nonetheless, the tours are a major event.

Every single day, a small city is invaded by an impressive motorcade: 10 large imposing buses, half a dozen jeeps and other vehicles – incidentally, produced in South Korea. The preparations are thorough and, one might suspect, seriously disrupt the city’s routine. The North Koreans can see, albeit from the distance, the visitors – their dress, their height, their behavior. The South Koreans can immediately see how poor the North is. It seems that North Koreans, being necessarily street-smart, also instantly feel the South Korean prosperity.

The waitresses, girls in small stalls and even a handful of genuine guides (not the plaincloth intelligence operatives) who can see the visitors will also notice a lot. Even the willingness of the guests to spend a dollar on a cup of instant coffee or a few cookies is an important sign to them – after all, the average monthly salary in Kaesong is about $4. Those South Korean guests definitely do not look like impoverished victims of evil US imperialism. For a while it will be possible to explain away their extravagant behavior by insisting that those people come from the exploitive elite. But the longer the tours continue, the more difficult the task will become.

So why did the North decide to open Kaesong in the first place? It seems that the major reason is the easy currency income the project brings to Pyongyang. Every visitor pays 180,000 won ($190) – a hefty sum for a one-day bus trip. Out of this amount, 100,000 won goes to the North Korean authorities. All investment into necessary infrastructure is done by Hyundai Asan, so for the North this is easy money. Since 17,000 visitors joined the tours during the first two months of its operations, annual earnings could be in excess of $10 million.

At the same time, they might believe that the Kaesong area has become ideologically contaminated anyway. The Kaesong industrial park is located just a few kilometers from the city. In this facility, some 15,000 North Korean workers are employed in factories owned and run by South Korean capital, largely small businesses which are in desperate need of “cheap labor”.

These workers interact with South Koreans regularly, and they also see life inside the industrial park, which presents a remarkable contrast with their native towns or villages: well-paved roads, trees planted everywhere, modern buildings and round-the-clock supply of water and electricity. Even traffic lights, famously absent from North Korea, are present in this de-facto South Korean enclave.

So why did the North decide to open Kaesong in the first place? It seems that the major reason is the easy currency income the project brings to Pyongyang. Every visitor pays 180,000 won ($190) – a hefty sum for a one-day bus trip. Out of this amount, 100,000 won goes to the North Korean authorities. All investment into necessary infrastructure is done by Hyundai Asan, so for the North this is easy money. Since 17,000 visitors joined the tours during the first two months of its operations, annual earnings could be in excess of $10 million.

The only way to promote change, evolutionary or revolutionary, is to bring North Koreans into contact with the outside world. The North Korean dictator and his elite might see partial exchanges as an easy way to earn money, which is necessary for them to maintain their caviar and cognac lifestyle. In the short term they are probably right. But in the long term, the exchanges will make breaches in the once monolith wall of information blockade. Sooner or later, those breaches will become decisive.

The full articles can be found here:
Tourism boost to North in works
Joong ang Daily
Moon So-young
2/6/2008

A breach in North Korea’s iron curtain
Asia Times
Andrei Lankov
2/7/2008

UPDATE: Surprise–it has been delayed:

Air China delays Pyongyang route for three months
Reuters
1/2/08

Air China has postponed Wednesday’s opening of a new route to the North Korean capital, Pyongyang, until March, citing operational reasons, but denied the decision was linked to politics.

Hat tip Michael Rank

Original Story:

Air China to Fly to Pyongyang
CARNOC.com (hat tip to Werner in Vienna, Aus.)
Simon Li   
11/06/2007

On Nov. 5, Air China announced that the airline will launch Beijing-Pyongyang route on Jan. 2, 2008. This new service means that the airline’s international operations (including Hong Kong SAR and Macau SAR) will be increased to 72 routes.

Full flight schedule of Beijing-Pyongyang service as below:

Flight No.:  CA121
Route:  Beijing – Pyongyang
Days of Operation: Wed, Fri, Sun
Aircraft Type:  B737
Dep. Time: 14:00
Arr. Time:  17:00

Flight No.: CA122
Route:   Pyongyang – Beijing
Days of Operation: Wed, Fri, Sun
Aircraft Type:  B737
Dep. Time:  18:00
Arr. Time:   19:00

(NKeconwatch: Notice how this does not conflict with air Koryo’s Tuesday/Saturday schedule.  I predict that if this goes through, we will see greater volumes of Chinese tourists take the Air China flights, and western tourists will still demand the “unique atmosphere” of air Koryo–they might even pay more for it!)

Korea Times
Ryu Jin
12/28/3007

Hyundai Asan, the South Korean operator of various cross-border economic projects with North Korea such as Mt. Geumgang tourism program, said Friday that its operating profit this year is estimated to exceed 10 billion won (roughly $10.6 million).

“We saw a great upturn for our profits this year thanks to an increase in the number of tourists to Mt. Geumgang,’’ a ranking company official said. “According to our tentative calculation, the operating profit is expected to surpass 10 billion won.’’

Hyundai Asan, which began another tour program to North Korea’s border city of Gaeseong this year, expects that the company’s annual sales will reach 300 billion won this year, a notable increase from 220 billion won last year.

According to the firm, some 350,000 people crossed the border to the North to visit the mountain resort on the eastern part of the peninsula, up from last year’s 240,000, largely thanks to the launch of a new route up the inner part of the mountain in June.

Company officials anticipate that the tours will further prosper next year, as it plans to start a fresh tour program to Mt. Baekdu on the border between China and North Korea next May.

Founded in February 1992, Hyundai Asan has suffered losses for a long time. But its large-scale investment in the poverty-stricken Stalinist state is paying off at last. In 2005, the company went into the black with 5.7 billion won in operating profit for the first time.

Yonhap
12/16/2007

North Korea’s state-run airline is likely to be used to ferry South Korean tourists to the North’s Mount Paektu, a government official said Sunday.

The official, who declined to be identified, said Air Koryo planes may be used to carry tourists, owing to concerns about safety related to Samjiyeon Airport, about 30 kilometers southeast of the mountain.

He did not elaborate on the nature of safety concerns, but said it may be inappropriate for South Korean flag carriers like Korean Air and Asiana to use the airport.

Tours to the 2,744-meter-high mountain, held sacred by many Koreans, are the result of the summit meeting between South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun and North Korean leader Kim Jong-il in early October.

He added that flights would probably use Seoul’s Gimpo International Airport, fly over Gangwon Province, head out into the East Sea before turning north toward Mount Paektu, on the North Korea-Chinese border.

The official said Gimpo has been selected as it can easily handle greater numbers of people than provincial air terminals, and the high level of airport security that can be maintained.

Hyundai Asan, which is responsible for organizing tours to North Korea, said direct flights linking Gimpo and Mount Paektu should begin in May, 2008.

The company currently organizes tours to Mount Geumgang on the east coast, and the historic city of Kaesong just north of the demilitarized zone separating the two Koreas on the west coast.

Yonhap
12/8/2007

North Korean leader Kim Jong-il has given warm encouragement to local workers developing Mount Paektu, the highest point on the peninsula that will be opened to South Korean tourists next year, the North’s broadcaster said Saturday.

South and North Korea agreed to open a direct flight route between Seoul and the North’s Mount Paektu during their second summit in October. The inter-Korean tour, set to start in May, is organized by South Korea’s Hyundai Group.

Kim “expressed his gratitude to officials and workers who have wholeheartedly supported the development of the Mount Paektu area,” the Korean Central Broadcasting Station, monitored in Seoul, said, naming technicians, researchers and factory workers involved in the project.

Hyun Jeong-eun, chairwoman of the Hyundai Group, agreed with North Korea during her visit to Pyongyang in early November to start in May sightseeing tours of the North’s 2,744-meter mountain, located on its border with China. A group of South Korean government officials and researchers have conducted an on-site inspection.

Mount Paektu will be the third inter-Korean tourism project organized by Hyundai Asan, a unit of the Hyundai Group in charge of North Korea business. North Korea opened its border city of Kaesong to South Korean tourists early this week, following the launch of a tourism program to the North’s east coast mountain of Geumgang nine years ago.

The Mount Paektu and Kaesong tour projects are part of agreements South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun and North Korean leader Kim Jong-il reached during their summit that sought to boost economic cooperation and reduce tension.

Yonhap
12/5/2007

A convoy of 10 South Korean buses drove into North Korea Wednesday across the heavily armed border to visit the city of Kaesong, launching a second tourism project between the two Koreas, said the South Korean company that developed the tour.

The one-day overland tour of Kaesong, a 90-minute drive from Seoul, offers ordinary South Koreans an unusual glimpse of North Korea, one of the world’s most isolated nations, said officials at Hyundai Asan, the company that offers the tour.

It is the second tourism project between the two Koreas by Hyundai Asan, a unit of the South Korean Hyundai conglomerate in charge of most business projects involving the North. Nine years ago it began a tour program to the North’s east coast mountain of Geumgang.

So far, the mountain resort has attracted some 1.5 million tourists, mostly South Koreans. North Korea receives US$50 for every $300 trip to the mountains.

Price of the one-day tour of Kaesong is 180,000 won ($195) per tourist with North Korea keeping $100 for each person, Hyundai Asan said.

Among the first batch of 360 tourists to Kaesong were 87-year-old Kim Yoon-kyung and four-year-old Shim Joo-eun, the South Korean company said.

They left Seoul at around 6:00 a.m. and are scheduled to return around 5:00 p.m., an official at Hyundai Asan said.

The tour of Kaesong offers visits to historical Buddhist temples, scenic waterfalls and other legacies of the city, which was the capital of the Koryo Dynasty that ruled the peninsula between A.D. 918 and 1392, the company said.

Kaesong is also the site of an inter-Korean industrial complex with some 26 South Korean companies manufacturing clothes and kitchenware there.

For years South Korea has been engaging in economic cooperation with North Korea as part of its effort to bridge the economic gap with its impoverished neighbor and prepare for reunification. South Korea’s economy is 35 times bigger than the North’s.

The effort is gaining momentum as North Korea has started disabling its nuclear weapons program and its relationship with the U.S. is improving.

Christopher Hill, the chief U.S. negotiator in international talks aimed at persuading North Korea to dismantle its nuclear program, is on a three-day visit to the North’s nuclear complex in Yongbyon, which produces weapons-grade plutonium, to check the progress of the disablement of the North’s nuclear facilities.

At the same time, the deputy prime ministers of the two Koreas are in a three-day meeting in Seoul to discuss a wide range of economic cooperation projects that South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun and North Korean leader Kim Jong-il agreed to during their summit in October.

Yonhap
Nam Kwang-sik
12/2/2007

The first South Koreans to tie the knot in North Korea wed in a ceremony at Mount Geumgang, a scenic North Korean mountain frequented by South Korean tourists, tour company Hyundai Asan said on Sunday.

Choe Jeong-in, a 32-year-old employee of Hyundai Asan, and Cho Ah-ra, 24, who works for one of Hyundai Asan’s business partners, married in a ceremony at a Mount Geumgang hotel on Saturday, three years after they first met while working at the North Korean resort.

Joong Ang Daily
Ser Myo Ja
11/19/2007

Seo Myeong-hee has traveled the world to see the pyramids of Egypt, the Great Wall of China and the Grand Canyon in the United States, but she said her visit to Chonji, the crater lake on the peak of Mount Paektu, was the best trip of her life.

“It was a beautiful sunny day in May last year. I was just taken away by the magnificent view,” Seo, 57, recalled of her visit to the mountain that straddles the border between China and North Korea. “After walking along the ridge for about three hours, we were there. The lake was a mysterious blue, and there were wildflowers everywhere.”

Standing 2,744 meters (9,002 feet) tall, Mount Paektu has been worshipped for centuries as the place of Korea’s ancestral origins. In addition to its beauty, it is this rich cultural tradition that prompted Seo, like many South Koreans, to travel through China to see the mountain, since there is currently no way to visit the area via North Korea. “It was a five-day trip, but mostly we spent time in Chinese towns seeing ancient ruins of the Goguryeo Kingdom and other tourist attractions,” she said. “The highlight was definitely Mount Paektu, but you have to sit on the bus for many painful hours to actually get there.”

All that, though, is about to change. Last month’s inter-Korean summit finally opened the door for South Koreans to fly directly to the mountain. It promises to be a popular destination once the infrastructure is complete.

In 2005, North Korean leader Kim Jong-il promised Hyundai Asan Chairwoman Hyun Jeong-eun during a visit to Pyongyang that he would allow a tour program for Mount Paektu. Nothing was done for more than two years, however, until the October summit between Kim and President Roh Moo-hyun resulted in a deal to allow passengers to fly from Seoul to an airport on the mountain.

With cooperation from the Korea National Tourism Organization, Hyundai Group’s North Korea business arm, Hyundai Asan, has begun preparations in cooperation with North Korea’s Asia-Pacific Peace Committee, which handles civilian inter-Korean projects.

Hyundai Asan, which has the sole franchise to operate tours to the North from South Korea, plans to begin offering tours to Mount Paektu in May 2008. The only other tour program from the South allows visitors to travel to Hyundai’s resort at Mount Kumgang, a project that began in 1998. A South Korean team including officials from the KNTO, the Roh administration and Hyundai will make an on-site survey of Mount Paektu before the end of this month.

Yoon Man-joon, president of Hyundai Asan, told the JoongAng Daily in an interview Thursday that he is extremely optimistic about the tour project. Yoon and Hyun visited the mountain personally early this month.

“The Mount Kumgang tour had more of a symbolic meaning, because it was the first opportunity for South Koreans to go to North Korea for tourism,” Yoon said. “Mount Paektu, however, has much more potential to succeed solely as a tour program.”

Yoon thinks demand will be high and response immediate once the tours begin. “Mount Kumgang is praised for its scenic beauty, but Mount Paektu is more than that,” Yoon said. “The place is the origin of all Koreans, and it is an extraordinary experience for us to visit there.”

Seo could not agree more. “When I saw Chonji, the crater lake, I became so emotional that I almost cried,” she said. “The lyrics of our national anthem even begin with the mountain ― ‘Until the East Sea’s waves are dry, and Mount Paektu is worn away, God watch o’er our land forever!’”

The mountain has long been considered sacred. In Korea’s creation myth, Hwanung, a son of the Lord of Heaven, was allowed to descend onto Mount Paektu with 3,000 followers and found the City of God.

There a tiger and a bear told Hwanung that they dreamed of becoming human, and Hwanung gave them 20 cloves of garlic and a bundle of mugwort, ordering them to eat only those foods and remain out of the sunlight for 100 days. The tiger failed, but the bear endured and eventually was transformed into a woman.

The bear-woman then prayed for a child, and Hwanung took her for his wife. A son, Dangun, was born, and he built the walled city of Pyongyang and called his kingdom Joseon. Not to be confused with the Joseon Dynasty, the kingdom is referred to in Korean history as Gojoseon or Ancient Joseon. Historians believe his kingdom began in 2,333 B.C.

This mythology is still marked on the modern Korean calendar, with Oct. 3 celebrated as Gaecheonjeol, or National Foundation Day, which marks the establishment of the first Korean kingdom.

The opening of Mount Paektu is not without controversy. Other travel agencies have expressed their displeasure with Hyundai Asan’s monopoly on tours to the famous mountain. On Nov. 13, Shim Joong-mok, the president of the Korea Tourism Association, held a press conference and said the group wants a share of the potentially lucrative market. He said the association, which represents more than 20,000 travel agencies in Korea, may take legal action if their request is not met.

Hyundai Asan President Yoon rebuffed the demand. “The agreement we have with North Korea for exclusive rights to Mount Paektu tourism is a legitimate commercial deal,” Yoon said. “They act as if we received this right for free, but we have made vast investments in North Korea over the past nine years and earned the North Korean authorities’ trust. The tour program was given in return.”

Yoon said the tourism industry should respect market principles. “It would be the same for any other beautiful mountain. Would it make sense for me to develop a resort under an exclusive contract and then have other travel agents demand that they also want to do business there?” Yoon asked. “The travel agents’ demand is unreasonable.”

According to a Hyundai Research Institute report, it will cost up to $1.26 billion to develop a resort on the mountain comparable to the facilities in Pyeongchang, the South Korean city that hopes one day to host the Winter Olympics.

Yoon said he is confident about the Paektu program’s potential, citing his recent visit to the mountain. “There are two lodging facilities built by North Korea on the mountain. One is Sobaeksu State Guest House and the other is Baegyebong Hotel. Both are modern, and they will be usable after some modifications,” Yoon said.

He said the survey team, which will leave before the end of this month, will also study what work is needed for Samjiyon Airport on Mount Paektu to begin receiving flights from South Korea. “We will have a better idea after surveying the runway and traffic tower,” he said, adding that Korean Air and Asiana have both expressed interest in flying to North Korea.

The modernization of the airport may also be expensive. The Ministry of Construction and Transportation said in a report last month that repairs will cost 280 billion won ($304 million).

The price of the tour program is also still to be decided. “It will be competitive with tour programs via China,” Yoon said. “We don’t want to make it too expensive or too cheap.”

Seo said she paid 1.2 million won for her five-day package to visit the mountain via China. “I didn’t think it was too expensive,” Seo said. “If I can fly to the mountain in just two hours at a similar cost, I will be more than willing to go one more time.”

Running a tour program for Mount Paektu is also tricky because there are only few weeks in the year when Chonji Lake can be seen in good weather. “I was happy because the May weather was fantastic,” Seo remembered. “The tour guide said we were lucky because many groups could not see the magnificent view due to the weather.”

According to Yoon, Hyundai Asan is reviewing other plans to use the mountain’s winter weather as a possible attraction for sports and hot springs.

The new tour may take away one small attraction of the Chinese route ― a chance to see the low-key North Korean border with China. “The border is not heavily guarded,” Seo said. “Our guide even allowed us to cross the border on foot. The North Korean guard smiled at us, and we took a souvenir photo together. I gave him a chocolate, and he was really thrilled.”