North Korean Economy Watch

Although political tensions have risen between North and South Korea (list here), Yonhap reports trade between the two countries has increased this year!

According to Yonhap:

South Korea’s trade with North Korea in the first five months of this year surged 30 percent on-year thanks to brisk industrial exchanges that offset a sharp drop in humanitarian aid, the Unification Ministry said Tuesday.

Inter-Korean trade volume increased to US$734.25 million in the January-May period, up from US$562.92 million during the same period last year, according to ministry data. The increase was notable in the commercial sector, which posted US$685 million worth of trade over the months, up 52 percent year-on-year.

However, exchanges in non-commercial areas significantly contracted due to strained inter-Korean political ties. Non-commercial trade dropped by 56 percent to US$49.2 million.

I have been unable to locate this information on the MoU website.  Perhaps it is not listed in English.  If you find it, please send me the link. 

Read the Yonhap article, see below:
Inter-Korean trade rises despite political chills
Yonhap
6/25/2008

North Korea does not publish economic data.  The size of North Korea’s economy is estimated by South Korea’s Central Bank (Bank of Korea), the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), and other think tanks such as the Sejong Institute (Lee Jong Seok). 

According to a recent report by the Bank of Korea, North Korea sufferd its second full year of economic contraction (as defined by GDP), 1.1% in 2006 and 2.3% in 2007.  The bank estimates North Korea’s 2007 gross national income (GNI/GNP) at $26.7 billion, per capita GNP at $1,152 (assuming population of 23 million).  If you are interested in knowing the difference between GNP and GDP, click here.

Here are some highlights from the report:

Agriculture, forestry & fisheries marked a 9.4% decrease following a 2.6% decrease in 2006

Mining increased 0.4% in 2007, down from 1.9% increase in 2006

Manufacturing increased 0.8%, higher than 0.4% 2006 increase. -1.7% growth in light industry, due to the decrease in food products and beverages. +2.3% growth in heavy industries led by expansion of metal and machinery products.

Electricity, gas & water production increased 4.8%, (+2.7% in 2006), from hydroelectric and steam power generation.

Construction production -1.5%, (-11.5% in 2006), from reduced non-housing construction and civil engineering.

Services +1.7%, (+1.1% in 2006). Hotel, restaurant, transport, post & telecom industry expanded.

Trade volume (goods) fell 1.8% to $2.941 billion, 1/248 South Korea’s. Exports fell 3.0%, imports fell 1.3%.

These estimates are based on trade figures obtained from the Korea International Trade Association, Korea Trade and Investment Promotion Agency, fuel and food aid figures from aid groups such as the International Red Cross and the World Food Program, as well as information provided by frequent visitors.

More information here:
Full report by Bank of Korea  and data (recomended)

North Korea’s Economy Shrank in 2007, Second Annual Contraction
Bloomberg
Heejin Koo
6/17/2008

UPDATE:  The Kumgangsan Golf Course is located here (Wikimapia), though it is still under construction in these dated images.

ORIGINAL POST: The DPRK’s golf facilities are all easily recognizable from Google Earth:  There is the 18 hole course half-way between Pyongyang and Nampo; there is a smaller 9-hole course next to the Yangakdo Hotel; there is a driving range in the Sosan sports district; and there is even a three hole course east of town just south of the Ponghwa Barrage on the Taedong River (This area could be the Ponghwa Executive Apartments mentioned in Kim il Song’s North Korea).

According to Yonhap, the DPRK has successfully expanded their number of golf holes by 60%–increasing them from 30 to 48:

The “Kumgang Ananti Golf and Spa Resort,” including a 18-hole golf course, will open to the public Wednesday after nearly four years of construction, Emerson Pacific Group, a Seoul-based leisure firm, said.

Built on about 1.7 million square meters of land, the resort also has a spa, a hotel and restaurants that provide nice sea and mountain views, according to Kim Min-jeong, a publicity official of the company.

The golf course has already drawn media attention over its 929-meter number three hole, the world’s longest.

The facility, however, will be operated on a membership-only basis for the time being, Kim said, adding that the company plans to open the facility to individual tourists around next year.

Emerson Pacific is waiting for Pyongyang to give the company permission to employ about 200 North Koreans, including 60 caddies, at the resort, the official said.

Read the full story here:
Golf course to open at North Korea’s Mt. Geumgang
Yonhap
5/27/2008

UPDATE: Although the Daily NK originally reported stellar growth rates in 2008 for Hyundai’s North Korea projects, today the Choson Ilbo highlights that profits are still elusive:

According to the Financial Supervisory Service on Sunday, Hyundai Asan suffered a net loss of W9.64 billion (US$1=W1,041) in the first quarter this year, three times greater than the W3.34 billion in the corresponding quarter last year.

Despite the large number of tourists, which, at 125,000 as of mid May this year, nearly doubled since last year, it is the largest loss reported since the tours to Mt. Kumgang began in 2004. Over 45,000 people have traveled to the North Korean city of Kaesong since the tour program began in December 2007, and it is almost certain that the company would reach its goal of 100,000 tourists for this year.

So what is the explanation given for this?

The reason for such struggle is the weakness of the won against the U.S. dollar, since North Korea charges admission fees to Kaesong and Mt. Kumgang in dollars — US$ 100 for one and $80 for the other per person for three days and two nights. As the dollar has risen more than 10 percent since the beginning of the year, from W940 to W 1,040, so has the initial cost. The tour program to Kaesong has reportedly gone into the red already. Moreover, Asan has to pay off $200 million of North Korean foreign debt in return for the license to develop Mt. Kumgang granted in 1999.   

ORIGINAL POST
From the Daily NK:

According to the Ministry of Unification, despite the stalemate between North and South Korea, cooperation and exchange at the civilian level have increased rapidly in the months of January to April compared to the previous year.

Compared to the same period last year, North-South trade increased by 37% (corresponding to USD 410.099 million the same period last year) and the coming and going of people and the tour of Geumgang Mountain increased by 144% and 76% respectively, contributing to a significant rise in civilian cooperation and exchange.

Related to the North-South trade, following the expansion in economic cooperation, commercial transactions (regular trade + processing of brought-in materials + economic cooperation) increased by 53.3% (to USD 531,960,000) compared to the same period last year (USD 346,990,900). Only, uncommercial trade decreased by 53.8%, recorded at USD 29,570,000 according to the reduction in aid to North Korea.

69 enterprises are operating in the Kaesong Industrial Complex as of April 2008 and 44 of them seem to be constructing factories. It is anticipated that 100-some enterprises will be operating by the end of the year.

The first quarter production volume increased 71% or by USD 6,770,000 compared to the same period last year. The export amount declined 58% to USD 13,280,000. The total number of North Korean workers is 26,885 and South Korean sojourners 1,018, the latter rising by 52.6% from the previous year, despite the evacuation of South Korean personnel.

The Mount Geumgang and Kaesong tours, compared to last year, are maintaining a huge growth rate. The number of Mt. Geumgang tourists have increased 76% to 100,510 and the Kaesong tour, which began in December of last year, logged 40,525 visitors thus far.

The number of coming and going of people, excluding the Mt. Geumgang and Kaesong Complex tourists, increased by 144% within the year to 93,019 and such a growth rate seems to have originated from the hike in visitors related to economic cooperation and North-South trade as well as the Complex itself. Only, the number of visitors related to aid to North Korea was reduced from 2,935 to 1,129.

Although the increase in tourism numbers was expected, the positive spin put on the Kaesong Zone contradicts earlier reports.  

Read the full stories here:
North and South, Politics at a Stalemate, Economic Cooperation Is Bright
Daily NK
5/14/2008
Jeong Jae Sung

Hyundai Asan Losses From N.Korea Tours Mounting
Choson Ilbo
5/19/2008

Koryo Tours Press Release
5/12/2008

British run Koryo Tours have just been informed that this year’s Mass Games in North Korea have been expanded to include two different events, both staged in Pyongyang’s May Day stadium with a full compliment of 100,000 performers. Running from August 4th until the end of September every day bar Sunday will see a 100 minute afternoon performance of an all-new Mass Games show named ‘Prosper the Motherland!’ staged specially for the 60th anniversary of the foundation of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, 9th September 1948. The classic ‘Arirang’ an 80 minute gymnastic and socialist realism extravaganza will be performed in the evening.

Koryo Tours are running their usual full compliment of tours during this time and details can be found on their website.  Koryo Tours offer regular group tours, tours for US citizens (only possible during the Mass Games), specialized trips including to Mount Paekdu, independent tours for small groups, as well as many others. This will likely be a bigger opening event than the Olympics and on a larger scale than ever before.

Although business seems to have stalled in the Kaesong Industrial Zone, Hyundai Asan’s tourism projects have picked up this year.

From Yonhap: 

As many as 100,300 South Koreans toured Mount Geumgang so far this year, up from 58,000 a year earlier, according to a spokesman for Hyundai Asan, Hyundai Group’s arm dealing with business with North Korea.

Hyundai Asan officials expect more than 500,000 South Korean to visit the North’s mountain resort this year alone, up from last year’s 350,000.

A total of 40,090 South Koreans also visited the North’s medieval capital city of Kaesong during the first four months this year, Hyundai officials said, adding they recently increased the daily quota for South Korean visitors to Kaesong to 500 from 300.

Read the full article here:
More South Koreans toured North Korea despite chill in ties
Yonhap
5/4/2008

A recent traveler with Koryo Tours sent this photo of Air Koryo’s new Tupolev parked at Pyongyang’s Sunan Airport.  According to a woman at the airport, it starts flying May 1, 2008 (May Day).

Click on the image for larger view

This morning the International Herald Tribune published an interesting AP story on Air Koryo, North Korea’s state airline.

As has been mentioned before, Air Koryo recently began upgrading its fleet–but guess who will seemingly be on the first flight? 

The airline also has taken delivery of its first new jet in years. South Korea’s Yonhap news agency, quoting diplomatic sources in China, reported Thursday that North Korea’s reclusive leader Kim Jong Il was likely to fly to Vietnam and China on the new plane next week.

Kim is widely believed to shun air travel. His previous trips abroad by luxurious special train were shrouded in secrecy and reports speculating on his destinations beforehand were not always accurate.

And although the economy at large is not doing so well, Air Koryo business is brisk. 

“The golden days are now[.]  They’re busier than ever,” says Nick Bonner of Koryo Tours. (paragraph edited)

In 1998, his Koryo Tours — which despite being similarly named for an ancient Korean dynasty is unrelated to the airline — escorted just 98 tourists to North Korea. The number doubled to 200 in 2006 and last year jumped to a still minuscule 1,100. Some of his customers also get into the country by train, a much longer trip.

Bonner said a roundtrip ticket on Air Koryo between Beijing and Pyongyang costs 2,550 Chinese yuan (US$365; €230) for economy and 4,340 yuan (US$621; €390) for business class.

What are Air Koryo’s most recent routes:

Air Koryo now has just three regularly scheduled international routes. Domestic service is said to be virtually nonexistent.

It flies roundtrip three times a week between Pyongyang and Beijing and twice a week to the northeastern Chinese city of Shenyang, an important source of trade for North Korea.

The other is return service once a week to Vladivostok. A flight to Khabarovsk, another city in the Russian Far East, stopped in 2005. The airline also had flew to Bangkok and Macau in recent years.

About the fleet upgrade: 

Perhaps illustrative of Air Koryo’s improving fortunes, in December it acquired a twin-engine Tu-204-300 jet manufactured by Russia’s OAO Tupolev, adding to its fleet of other Tupolev, Antonov and Ilyushin jets and turboprops.

Tupolev mentions the deal on its Web site, though did not disclose financial terms when asked.

A non-North Korean with intimate knowledge of the airline, who refused to be identified, confirmed the deal, adding North Korean pilots were receiving training in Russia with the craft set to begin operations at the end of April.

Although the article insinuates that economics are largely behind the fleet upgrade, a little nudging by China certainly did not hurt.  China gave Air Koryo a deadline to meet Beijing safety standards.  But despite China’s concern for air safety, Air Koryo still has one of the best records in the business:

Though concerns about safety have been raised — Air Koryo is banned from flying in the European Union — the carrier has apparently had just one major accident, a crash in West Africa in 1983 when the airline was known under a different name.

The plane, an Ilyushin 62 carrying 23 people, was en route to Conakry, the capital of Guinea, on an “international non-scheduled passenger” flight, when it went down in the Fouta Djall mountains, according to the Aviation Safety Network Web site. All aboard perished.

Air Koryo made its first flight to South Korea in August of 2000 to ferry 100 separated family members for temporary reunions with long-lost relatives in the South. The airline has made occasional flights to South Korea for special purposes as relations have warmed in recent years.

The article does not mention the other (minor) mishap in 2006:

On August 15, 2006 aircraft from Air Koryo (Tupolev 154B-2) on an international scheduled passenger flight from Beijing, China (Beijing Capital Airport) to Pyongyang, North Korea (Sunan International Airport) experienced a runway mishap (exited runway) during landing rollout after landing in bad weather at Sunan International Airport. No injuries were reported and damage to plane was minor. (Wikipedia)

Read the full article here:
North Korea’s quirky Air Koryo survives and, increasingly, appears to thrive
International Herald Tribune (AP)
4/18/2008

Rumors of food shortages in North Korea seem to be popping up everywhere (even on this website), so now any change in Pyongyang’s standard operating procedure is interpreted in the media as a direct result of this condition.  Changes in regime behavior might be related to food shortages, but then again, we are talking about the DPRK, and we don’t really know how or why many decisions are made.

The latest North Korean “Kremlinology” comes from Yonhap:

With neither foreign artists singing in praise of Kim, who is dubbed the “Sun of mankind” by the communist state, nor the standard massive gymnastic display performed by about 100,000 people on show, North Koreans started the two-day holiday in a low-key manner.

The North traditionally spends a lot on celebrating one of the nation’s biggest holidays on a grand scale, inviting many foreign musicians and art groups to perform in the “April Friendship Art Festival” that marks the birthday of the nation’s founder and unveiling large public monuments.

Pyongyang, however, has scaled down the previously annual event to a biennual in what analysts said is a measure to save badly needed foreign currency because of worsening hardships facing the country.

and as for Arirang…

The Koryo Tours website claims that Arirang will take place from August to the end of September.  This could change, but it is 2-4 weeks shorter than the last couple of years (although those were interrupted by floods!).

Read the full story here:
N. Korea marks late leader’s birthday amid economic hardship
Yonhap
Shim Sun-ah
4/15/2008

Koryo Tours, run by Nick Bonner, Simon Cockerell, and Hannah Barraclough, has published its quarterly report.  Read it here.

Inside, readers will learn about the upcoming year in North Korean tourism (Americans likely allowed in for Arirang in the fall) as well as other information on the NY Phil’s performance in Pyongyang and the World Cup qualifier in Shanghai.