North Korean Economy Watch

Yonhap
11/7/2007

Bilateral trade between the two Koreas increased by 23 percent in the first 10 months of the year due mainly to an increase in shipments of goods produced at the South Korea-built industrial complex in the communist North, the Unification Ministry said Wednesday.

The two-way trade volume jumped to nearly US$1.44 billion in the January-October period, up from $1.16 billion from a year earlier, according to the ministry.

“The rise mainly comes from a 48 percent increase in the amount of goods shipped from Kaesong,” a ministry official said, adding trade in some other areas, such as minerals and fisheries, increased by nearly 50 percent year-on-year.

Exchanges in non-commercial areas, however, dropped by 18 percent, according to the ministry official.

Seoul hopes cross-border trade will continue to increase over the coming years as the sides are about to launch a second development plan to expand the Kaesong industrial complex, where about two dozen South Korean companies are currently employing some 10,000 North Korean workers.

The joint industrial complex is expected to house over 2,000 South Koreans businesses and employ as many as 500,000 North Koreans when it is fully developed by a target year of 2012.

President Roh Moo-hyun and North Korean leader Kim Jong-il have also agreed to develop the North’s western Haeju area as a special economic district in the second-ever inter-Korean summit held in the North Korean capital of Pyongyang early last month.

Daily NK
Yang Jung A
11/7/2007

Although the North Korean economy has been growing since late 1990s, it is hard to say that the economy has growth on its own.

A senior researcher at the Korea Institute for National Unification, Choi Su Young, released a paper titled “the Latest Tendency of the North Korean Economy” in the October “Finance,” which is issued by Korea Federation of Banks. He pointed out in the paper that “North Korea’s economic reliance on China is getting serious and cited the state’s 1.7 billion dollars in trade with China.”

He explained “On one hand, North Korea exports to China in 2006 increased to 72.7% compared with exports in 2002; on the other hand, imports from China increased to 163.8%. This resulted in a recorded deficit of 760 million dollars. The rate of North Korean trade reliance on China was 48.5% in 2004, and it reached 60% last year.”

He relayed that “In the production industry, North Korea has to rely systematically on China’s raw materials, energy, facilities and parts. North Korea is importing its entire amount of petroleum for transportation and production. Chinese influence on the North Korean economy is so absolute that 70-80% of consumer products are made in China.

Mr. Choi insists that “Although foreign aid and South-North economic cooperation were expanding and its reliance on the influx of foreign currency was great, North Korea was staying in low-growth status, which means North Korea does not have the economic foundation for development.

According to the report, the scale of exchange between the South and the North was rapidly increasing through the annual provision of South Korean rice and free fertilizer supporting and South Korean enterprises’ activities at the Kaesung Industrial Complex.

With the exception of South Korea and China, there are no countries willing to invest in North Korea. Most developed countries turn away from North Korea because the standard and environment related to North Korean investment are significantly inferior to the norm.

He explained that “The North Korean investment environment is inconvenient for foreign investors due to obsolete infra-structures, high distribution costs and limited markets. It is unnecessary to mention the international policies related to North Korea.”

Mr. Choi added that “The scale of North Korean foreign trade was 2 billion dollars in 2000 and reached 3 billion dollars in 2006. Exports amounted to 950 million dollars and imports came to a total of 2.05 billion dollars.”

Yonhap
10/31/2007

South Korean trade with North Korea rose 12.7 percent from a year earlier to US$1.23 billion for the first nine months of this year, a report said Wednesday, amid progress in talks on the North’s nuclear programs.

During the January-September period, South Korea exported $700 million worth of goods to North Korea and imported $530 million, the Korea International Trade Association said in the report.

D.P.R. Korea Export and Import 2007
Price JPY39,900.-(tax included)
Date of issue October  2007
Size B5/Page 514
Publisher WTS
ISBN Code ISBN978-4-9903339-2-8-C3033

This book summarizes foreign trade statistics in fiscal year 2006 of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK).  Since DPRK does not publish the trade statistics, it is not even certain whether or not statistical data on trade are systematically collected.  Therefore, WTS drew up this book by investigating foreign trade with DPRK, based on customhouse statistics of 190 or so countries (and regions) which are trade partners of DPRK.

The statistical format applied in this book was created, based on the HS code (the commodity classification list based on “International Convention on the Harmonized Commodity Description and Coding System”) which is the international standard.
Amounts in various currency units were all converted into the U.S. dollar on the basis of the annual total.

We would be delighted if this book could serve as reference for concerned parties.

Contents of “D.P.R.Korea Export and Import 2007”
1. Overview
2. Statistics by country
3. Statistics by product group
4. Statistics by country and product group (20 high rank countries = China, South Korea, India, Thailand, Yemen, Russia, Brazil, Qatar, Japan, South Africa, Singapore, Mexico, Greece, Germany, Hong Kong, Netherland, Chile, Taiwan, Peru, Paraguay)
5. Topics:
1) Oil import
2) Export of gold and silver
3) Export of rare metals
4) Export of other subterranean resources
5) Import of luxury items
6) Export of apparels
7) Export of fishery products
8) Data on imports to DPRK after the nuclear test
9) Partial confusion of the statistics of DPRK with those of South Korea
6. Statistics by product group and country (HS6ST)- EXPORT 3,161 all articles
7. Statistics by product group and country (HS6ST)- IMPORT 4,294 all articles

Information provided by:
Miyagawa Jun
Korea Specialty Bookstore, Rainbow Trading Co.
TomodaSanwaBldg. 2F, 1-37,
KandaJinbocho1-37, Chiyoda-ku,
Tokyo101-0051 Japan
tel/ fax +81-3-5283-6100,
miyagawa@rainbow-trading.co.jp

Institute for Far Easter Studies
NK Brief No. 07-10-16-1

The Kaesong Industrial District Management Committee reported on October 10 that after two years and nine months of operation, the total value of goods manufactured in the Kaesong Industrial Complex (KIC) surpassed 200,000,000 USD. In 2005, production by companies in the KIC totaled 15,000,000 USD; in 2006, 74,000,000 USD; and in the first 9 months of 2007, 124,000,000 USD, for a total since 2005 until last September of 213,000,000 USD.

There are currently a total of 45 companies operating in the complex, employing 19,433 North Korean workers and 800 workers from South Korea, for a total of over twenty thousand employees. The Committee’s report further detailed that the production output of the North Korean workers averaged 1,275 USD per person during the first half of 2007, up 28 percent over last year’s per-capita output of 989 USD.

After overall production surpassed 100,000,000 USD at the end of last January, the 200,000,000 USD barrier was broken in only eight months. This expansion of production is a result of a stable business environment, the increase in the number of companies entering the complex and the number of North Korean workers employed, and overall productivity growth.

The 1,275 USD per-capita production output for the first half of the year shows a 28 percent increase over the 989 USD per-capita recorded in 2006, and 15 percent higher than the 1,108 USD per-capita average of the first two quarters of last year. Despite employment regulations calling for continually increasing numbers of workers, which tend to lower productivity statistics, overall North Korean workers’ average per-capita production numbers did not fall, and the increase shown is significant.

The increase in productivity is not unrelated to the level of education of the workers. Currently, the majority of workers in the KIC have at least a high-school education, and more than 20 percent have completed some form of technical college or higher. A technical training center scheduled for completion in October of this year will provide even more formal technical training for the workers, further increasing productivity.

Asia Times
Ting-I Tsai
10/6/2007

Business in Changbai county of Jilin province in northeast China is booming. The area, which faces North Korea’s Hyesan City across the Yalu River, has seen its exports rise 28.5% year-on-year in the first eight months of this year, the beneficiary of logjams created by China’s brisk trade with North Korea further downstream to Dandong – the busiest border city in northeast China bordering North Korea’s Shinuiju across the Yalu River.

As ice is melting between North Korea and the United States, more and more Chinese businessmen have been rushing to the border with the secretive communist country, looking to cash in on its trade and investment potential.

“Traffic across the river has been so busy,” said Han Lihsin, who founded a China-Korea trade website to promote business with China’s reclusive neighbor in April last year. “It is not only trucks from China that have to line up to go through customs, North Koreans have also sent their own trucks to pick up goods.”

According to statistics from Chinese Customs, bilateral trade between North Korea and China reached US$1.7 billion in 2006, a 7.58% increase over the previous year. It has grown another 16.7% in the first eight months of this year to $1.25 billion. Chinese investment in North Korea, meanwhile, had reached $38 million by the end of 2006.

China’s main exports include agricultural products, consumer electronics, textiles and fuel, but North Korean traders are taking advantage of the Internet to diversify their purchases. On China’s business promotion websites, buyers claiming to be from North Korea are asking for items as varied as wine coolers, necklaces, leather suitcases, soybean oil, pencil cases and “plastic containers for aromas or perfume”.

Whether North Koreans now have more money and are able to consume more remains a hotly debated issue among Chinese traders. But they agree that North Korean customers are now more sensitive to product quality and brands. “It’s not just about being cheap anymore. Products are required to be affordable with guaranteed quality,” said Tang Fuyou, manager of Dandong-based Tigereye62.com.

To overcome North Korean customers’ resistance to Chinese products, Tang says suppliers now market products with brand names and descriptions printed in English on the packaging. Small “Made in China” markings are placed in unobtrusive spots. “That way, goods can be sold for good prices,” he said, adding that South Korean and Japanese products are still too expensive for North Koreans.

Used televisions, washing machines, refrigerators and air conditioners are at the top of North Korean shopping lists. Hoping to ride the wave of this new demand for big-ticket household goods, China’s leading home appliance exporter Haier has reportedly been operating across the border since January of this year.

Traders aren’t the only ones looking to profit from North Korea. Burdened by soaring labor costs and high land prices, Chinese businessmen are finding this virgin territory to be a potential paradise.

Xu You, chairman of the Changbai-based China-North Korea investment association, suggested that his joint-venture wood factory pays 10 yuan (US$1.3) per month to its North Korean workers. Trader Wang Wei, whose Hsienhe pharmaceutical manufacturing company is planning to build a new factory in North Korea’s Nanpo, suggested that monthly salaries there average about 50 yuan.

Ambitious North Korean officials might not appreciate the intricacies of capitalist operations, but they have skillfully extended their networks for soliciting investment by touting the country’s advantages of cheap land and labor. North Korean websites based in China are advertising a broad range of investment opportunities, including in the areas of energy, restaurants and hotels, agriculture, mining, manufacturing and general infrastructure.

Among the approximately 100 projects circulating on these websites, hotels and electricity generation seem to be particular targets. One calls for a $30-45 million investment in Pyongyang’s yet finished tallest building, the Ryugyong Hotel, while another requires a $50-60 million investment for the Taedong-gang Hotel. Stakes in expansions of fuel-fired power plants are being offered for $100-200 million, and, hoping to take advantage of green energy, projects to develop wind and solar power also appear but minus a price tag.

As for manufacturing, projects to make elevators, freezers, electronic watches, shoes, sewing machines and even disposable diapers all require foreign investments in the form of machines, technology and raw materials.

At the urging of North Korean officials, investors Xu and Wang are now involved in pitching investments south of the Yalu to other Chinese prospects. According to Wang, Pearl River delta-based Chinese businessmen have expressed the most interest in relocating their factories, with 30 to 50 investment projects currently under negotiation.

Among those still concerned about the high uncertainty of operating in North Korea, some have chosen to set up an office in Pyongyang and bide their time until a timely opportunity emerges.

Aware of the growing significance of the bilateral commercial relationship, China’s central government and three provinces near the North Korean border – Liaoning, Jilin and Heilongjiang – have all made efforts to boost bilateral cooperation.

In March 2005, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao signed an investment-protection agreement with his North Korean counterpart, and the two nations inked five bilateral economic cooperation agreements between 2002 and 2005. During North Korean leader Kim Jong-il’s visit to China in January 2006, Wen introduced new economic-cooperation guidelines.

In July of this year, Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi noted during his three-day visit to Pyongyang that economic cooperation was an important part of China’s relations with the North, and said China would continue to promote cooperation by following the previous agreements and guidelines.

Provincial governments, meanwhile, have been promoting cross-border trade by attending and holding trade shows and building new trade zones. Jilin’s Hunchun, Jian and Tumen are the cities along the North Korean border most aggressively pursuing free-trade zones that would allow visa-free access and offer duty-free facilities.

North Korea introduced economic reforms in 2002, but with embargoes imposed by the United States and Japan and Pyongyang’s economic conservatism, the reforms have accomplished little and the economy continues to struggle. In an acknowledgement of those problems, Dear Leader Kim Jong-il in January of reportedly vowed to make 2007 North Korea’s economic development year.

Tang, the Chinese businessman operating in Dandong, noted that his company is about to be appointed by North Korea’s trade authority to assist the operations of some 200 North Korean companies in China. He believes, however, that patience is required when dealing with the communist, reclusive nation.

“Even when North Korea and the US normalize their relationship, more time will be needed for economic reform,” he said, “Chaos would follow if the system is transformed too quickly.”

Hankyoreh (h/t Tim Beal)
9/13/2007

Deal would see such shipments cross the DMZ for the first time

For the first time in the more than 50 years since the Korean War, minerals produced jointly by the two Koreas will be sold in South Korea. The two countries will also start to work on developing new mine projects and will launch drilling as early as next month, Lee Han-ho, head of the Korea Resources Corp. (KORES) told the Hankyoreh in a recent exclusive interview.

Lee is one of the group of business leaders and government officials that will accompany President Roh Moo-hyun during the second-ever inter-Korean summit slated for Oct. 2-4.

“On September 5, I met with Chung Un-up, North Korean head of the Inter-Korean Economic Cooperation Association in Pyongyang, and signed a deal to sell black lead products that two Koreas jointly produced at a mine in Hwanghae Province,” Lee said. “We also agreed to work together in developing a limestone mine in Shinwon of the same province and start drilling for black lead in the Pungcheon region.”

So far, minerals produced in the North have been sold in South Korea through a third country, such as China. Every year, US$10 million to $100 million worth of originally North Korean-produced non-metals were shipped to the South. This new project will be the first time such materials produced by the two Koreas will directly cross the line that has divided the peninsula since the 1950-53 Korean War.

The cross-border shipments would also come at a time when China is working on joint ventures with the North to develop resources in the communist country. Experts see the first-ever joint production and shipment of minerals as providing a boost for inter-Korean cooperation in the resources field.

Lee was invited to the North by the Inter-Korean Economic Cooperation Association. The first shipment, amounting to 200 tons will be on the South Korean market earlier next month, with 800-1,000 tons of black lead to follow. Wonjin Co. will be responsible for the sale of the black lead, which will be used in making fire-resistant materials and carbonized steel. Eight hundred tons of black lead would be priced at around $150,000.

KORES opened a 50-50 joint venture with a North Korean firm in April last year, but its full-blown operation has been delayed until recently due to electricity shortages in the North.

Yonhap
Sohn Suk-joo
9/6/2007

Inter-Korean trade surged 36.1 percent in the first eight months of this year, compared with the same period of a year earlier, the Unification Ministry said Thursday.

The two-way trade volume increased to US$1.05 billion in the January-August period, up from $775.52 million in 2006, thanks to brisk trade of fishery items and light industry products made at a joint industrial complex in the North Korean border city of Kaesong.

The industrial complex is the crowning achievement of a landmark summit between the leaders of the two Koreas in 2000. South Korean businesses use cheap North Korean labor to produce goods in Kaesong where some 26 South Korean factories employ about 15,000 North Korean workers.

“Inter-Korean commercial trade increased 37.1 percent to $809.71 million, while non-commercial trade rose 32.8 percent to $245.41 million during the same time span,” the ministry said in a statement.

Korea Times
Na Jeong-ju
8/16/2007

North Korea’s economy posted negative growth in 2006 for the first time in eight years on decreased production of agricultural and fisheries goods, the Bank of Korea (BOK) said Thursday.

In its estimate for the North’s economic growth, the central bank said the North’s real gross domestic product (GDP) shrank 1.1 percent in 2006 from a year ago, a turnaround from a 3.8 percent expansion in 2005. Until 2006, the North’s GDP had grown for seven years in a row since a 6.2 percent rise in 1999.

The GDP is the total output of goods and services produced within a country.

“Due to bad weather, North Korea’s agricultural, forestry and fisheries production fell with the construction industry remaining sluggish,” the BOK said. “North Korea seems to have suffered a blow as its international relations deteriorated due to its nuclear issues on top of a shortage of energy.”

The economic gap between the two Koreas grew larger last year.

North Korea’s nominal GDP increased 5.8 percent from a year ago to $25.6 billion last year, while South Korea’s GDP rose to $887.3 billion. South Korea’s GDP is 34.7 times larger than that of North Korea, widening from a 32.6-fold difference in 2005.

North Korea’s per-capita gross national income (GNI) came to $1,108 last year, up from $1,056 a year earlier, while South Korea’s per-capita GNI of $18,372 was 16.6 times bigger than that of the North, expanding from a 15.5 fold-difference. The North’s population reached 23.1 million, while the South’s was 48.3 million.

North Korea’s trade remained unchanged year-on-year at $3 billion last year, compared with South Korea’s $634.9 billion. The South’s trade was 212 times bigger than the North’s last year, rising from a 182-fold difference in 2005.

Pyongyang saw its exports dip 5.2 percent year-on-year to $950 million in 2006 as outbound shipments of animal products, non-metal goods and machinery decreased, while imports gained 2.3 percent to $2.1 billion.

Inter-Korean trade increased 27.8 percent from a year earlier to $1.4 billion. South Korea’s shipments to North Korea advanced 16 percent to $830.2 million, mainly on increased rice and fertilizer aid.

Inbound shipments from the North jumped 52.7 percent to $519.5 million on a hike in inter-Korean projects and mineral imports, the BOK said.

North Korea’s agricultural, forestry and fisheries industry declined 2.6 percent year-on-year last year, a turnaround from a 5 percent gain in 2005. The construction industry dipped 11.5 percent after gaining 6.1 percent the previous year.

The mining sector growth decelerated to 1.9 percent from 3.5 percent. Its manufacturing sector expansion slowed to 0.4 percent from 4.9 percent. The services industry grew 1.1 percent last year after increasing 1.3 percent in 2005, the central bank said.

North Korean economy posted 2006 downturn
Joong Ang Daily
Jung Ha-won
8/17/2007

North Korea’s economy shrank for the first time in eight years last year as agricultural production declined due to natural disasters and sluggish infrastructure development, according to estimates by South Korea’s central bank.

The Bank of Korea said yesterday that it believes North Korea’s 2006 gross domestic product declined 1.1 percent from a year earlier, the first downturn since 1999. The BOK, since 1991, has estimated the figures based on data from South Korean intelligence agencies and other research institutes. North Korea does not release economic data.

According to the estimate released yesterday, North Korea’s agriculture and marine industries last year declined 2.6 percent from 2005, when production rose by 5 percent.

“North Korea suffered from a serious flood last year, in stark contrast to 2005 when there was no major flood and farm production was good,” said a BOK official who refused to be named.

Growth in mining production, one of North Korea’s major industries, slowed to 1.9 percent from 3.5 percent in 2005. Manufacturing inched up 0.4 percent, down from 4.9 percent growth in 2005.

Construction sector production showed the biggest downturn at 11.5 percent from a year earlier, compared to 6.1 percent growth in 2005, as road and railway construction slowed, the central bank said.

Using satellite data, the bank estimated North Korea built just 49 kilometers (30.4 miles) of new roads last year, a sharp decline from 310 kilometers built in 2005.

Korea Times
8/15/2007

To understand what is at stake, we need to look back at key events in the past that led to North Korea’s isolation in the global economy.

U.S. economic sanctions against North Korea began on June 28, 1950, only three days after North Korea invaded South Korea, when the United States invoked a total embargo on exports to North Korea. Over the years, many more U.S. sanctions have been imposed against North Korea, and North Korean companies. Three of these sanctions have had a significant impact.

The first was the suspension of the Most Favored Nation (MFN) trade status, imposed on September 1, 1951. This sanction, which is still in effect, made it impossible for North Korea to even consider exporting its products to the United States.

The second is the placement of North Korea on the list of countries that support international terrorism. This sanction, imposed on January 20, 1988, followed North Korea’s blowing up of Korea Air Lines 858 on November 29, 1987, off the waters of Thailand.

This sanction has entailed many restrictions, including denial of North Korea’s ability to borrow money from international financial institutions.

The third measure is not a single action, but has taken the form of a tightening grip around the financial network used to fund North Korea’s illicit financial activities.

Although the ultimate target is North Korea, the threat of actual sanctions has been targeted against banks, including Banco Delta Asia, which deal with North Korea’s accounts. These financial sanctions involving Banco Delta Asia have been the focus of recent overt and covert negotiations between North Korea and the United States.

On September 17, 1999, President Clinton agreed to the first significant easing of economic sanctions against North Korea since the Korean War ended in 1953.

The U.S. easing of sanctions against North Korea, announced on June 19, 2000, may have been too little to persuade the leaders of North Korea to give up their prized long-range missile technology. North Korea carried out a nuclear test on October 9, 2006, and the United Nations passed Resolution 1718, further tightening North Korean economy.

There is no doubt that all these sanctions are having an impact on the North Korean economy. For instance, the North Korea’s annual trade deficit has averaged between $800 million and $1 billion in recent years, depending on whether deficits against South Korea are included.

The huge trade deficit is not sustainable, and it will eventually lead to a decrease in North Korea’s trade and gross domestic product. Studies indicate that the entire trade deficit appears to have been financed by weapons sales, illicit activities, and funds flowing from South Korea through joint projects. With the two UN resolutions adopted during 2006 and the tightening of North Korea’s financial transactions that began in 2005, North Korea should find it increasingly more difficult to pay for its trade deficit.

The key issue is not whether North Korea deserves the lifting of all the sanctions imposed against the country on the basis of its behavior since 1950, but how to bring about a peaceful resolution of pending security and humanitarian issues without military confrontation. This brings us to the importance of the upcoming summit between President Roh and North Korean leader Kim.

My assessment is that the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1989 led to an important change in the approach of North Korean leaders toward a better calculation of costs and benefits.