North Korean Economy Watch

According to Yonhap:

North Korea imported nearly three times as much grain from China in August as last year, an expert said Thursday, an unusual increase that may suggest food shortages in the impoverished nation have worsened.

The North purchased 47,978 tons of corn, flour and rice in August, up from 16,723 tons in the same period of last year, said Kwon Tae-jin, a North Korea expert at the Korea Rural Economic Institute.

“It is unusual that the North increased grain imports sharply in August ahead of the harvest season in fall,” Kwon said. “It is believed that the North increased imports as its grain stock is falling low.”

The North imported 216,535 tons of grain from China in the first eight months, a rise of 20 percent compared to the same period last year.

China is the North’s key ally, economic benefactor and diplomatic supporter.

North Korea suffered devastating floods in recent months that washed away tens of thousands of hectares of farmland, damage that is feared to threaten its already fragile food situation.

The North has relied on international handouts since the late 1990s when it suffered a massive famine that was estimated to have killed 2 million people.

Back in June 2011, Yonhap reported:

North Korea imported more than 50,000 tons of grains from its key ally China in May, an expert said Thursday, amid chronic food shortages in the North.

The North purchased 50,328 tons of corn, flour and rice in May, up 31.5 percent compared to the same period last year, said Kwon Tae-jin, a North Korea expert at the Korea Rural Economic Institute.

The North also imported 114,300 tons of fertilizer from China in the first five months, a rise of 39 percent compared to the same period last year, Kwon said, citing figures from Seoul’s Korea International Trade Association.

China is the North’s last remaining ally, key economic benefactor and diplomatic supporter.

In March, the U.N. food agency appealed for 430,000 tons of food aid to feed 6 million vulnerable North Korean people, a quarter of the country’s population.

Washington sent its delegation to North Korea in May to assess the food situation, though no decision on food aid has been made yet.

The North has relied on international handouts since the late 1990s when it suffered a massive famine that was estimated to have killed 2 million people.

However, the outside aid has dwindled following the North’s missile and nuclear tests and other provocations.

There are basically two conflicting narratives being played out in the media in regards to this kind of news. The first narrative is that heavy seasonal floods and typhoon damage wiped out a large percentage of North Korea’s fall harvest and they are in desperate need of food assistance. The second narrative is that the DPRK is boosting food stocks in advance of 2012, the year the country is supposed to transition into a “Strong and Prosperous Country” (according to official propaganda). Since the DPRK’s appeal for large-scale food aid has gone largely ignored by the international community (despite the best efforts of organizations like the UNWFP and charities like Samaritan’s Purse), the country is forced to increase food stocks through international trade if it wants to live up to the expectations it has created among the domestic population.  Meeting these expectations is especially important right now as they will play an important role in facilitating the leadership  transition to Kim Jong-il’s designated successor, Kim Jong-un.

I have been posting stories about this year’s food shortage here (though neglected for a couple of weeks).

Read the full stories here:
N. Korea’s grain imports from China increase threefold
Yonhap
2011-9-29

N. Korea increases grain imports from China
Yonhap
2011-6-30

According to Yonhap:

North Korea’s trade dependence on China deepened over the past four years, in contrast to a reduction in South Korea’s share in the North’s external trade, Seoul’s Unification Ministry said in a report Sunday.

The proportion of China in North Korea’s foreign trade is on the rise, increasing from 41.6 percent in 2007 to 49.5 percent in 2008, 52.7 percent in 2009 and 57.1 percent last year, the report said.

By contrast, South Korea saw its share of the North’s trade declining from 38.0 percent in 2007 to 33.0 percent in 2009 to 31.4 percent last year, it noted.

In terms of trade volume, too, bilateral trade between North Korea and China jumped from US$1.97 billion in 2007 to $2.68 billion in 2009 and $3.47 billion in 2010, the report said, adding the inter-Korean trade volume slightly increased from $1.8 billion in 2007 to $1.91 billion last year.

I looked on the Ministry of Unification’s web page, but I was unable to find the report mentioned above.  It  has obviously not been published in English.

As this information was released in South Korea, the DPRK’s premier, Choe Yong-rim, is in China.  According to the Korea Times:

The North’s Premier Choe Yong-rim and his Chinese counterpart Wen Jiabao “pledged to promote trade, investment and economic cooperation” between the nations during a meeting held on Monday night during Choe’s official visit to China, Xinhua news agency said.

“Under the context of the complicated regional and international situation, the parties, governments and peoples of China and the DPRK (North Korea)…made joint efforts to push forward bilateral ties,” Xinhua quoted Wen as telling Choe during the talks.

Wen hailed the North’s achievements in developing its economy and vowed that Beijing will continue to offer assistance within its capability, according to the report.

He then called on the two sides to speed up mutually beneficial cooperation in fields such as trade, investment, infrastructure, natural resources and agriculture, the report said.

Here is the Xinhua report.

Scott Snyder had some interesting comments on the DPRK-PRC trade relationship:

South Korea’s perceived failure to compete with China for economic influence in the North as a result of heightened tensions in inter-Korean relations remains an active subject of frustration in South Korea, especially among progressives, but North Korea’s continued pursuit of nuclear and missile tests and other tension-raising provocations against the South make it clear that China has been unable to use the North’s economic dependency on Beijing as a tool for imposing political restraint on Pyongyang.

Read the full stories here:
N. Korea deepens trade dependence on China
Yonhap
2011-9-25

Premiers of NK, China vow to boost economic cooperation
Korea Times
2011-9-27

Pictured above (Google Earth): Hyesan Youth Copper Mine.  See in Google Maps here.

According to Xinhua (China):

Hyesan-China Joint Venture Mineral Company, a large joint project between China and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK), started operation at Hyesan of Ryanggang province on Monday.

The mineral company was jointly set up by Wanxiang Resources Limited Company of China and the Ministry of Mining Industries of the DPRK on Nov. 1, 2007. Its main business was to produce and sell copper.

DPRK Mining Industries Minister Kang Min Chol and Chinese ambassador Liu Hongcai attended the opening ceremony.

Kim Chol, chairman of the people’s committee of the Ryanggang province, said at the ceremony that the joint venture was one of the symbols of the development of the DPRK-China friendship and would be a model of modernization, science and economic benefits.

Liu believed the company would make profits for both sides, benefit the two peoples and promote traditional China-DPRK friendship.

According to Reuters:

The mine was located a few miles from the Chinese city of Changbai in the northeastern province of Jilin and was 51 percent owned by Wanxiang, a source with direct knowledge of the project told Reuters on Tuesday.

The mine had a designed annual capacity of 50,000-70,000 tonnes of copper concentrate, expected to contain 20-30 percent copper, he added.

“All the concentrate will be sold to China,” the source said.

The source said the joint venture would conduct second-phase construction to expand the capacity of the mine if production ran smoothly, but did not give details on timing or expanded capacity.

China is the world’s top copper consumer but does not produce sufficient concentrate to meet demand. The country imported 3.4 million tonnes of copper concentrate in the first seven months of 2011, down 11 percent from a year earlier.

According to KCNA:

The Hyesan Youth Mine in Ryanggang Province was successfully updated as required by the new century.

The workers and technicians of the mine together with Chinese technicians and skilled workers completed the vast modernization project and successively ensured their commissioning.

The modernization of various production processes including mining, carriage and ore dressing made it possible to boost mineral production and thus contribute to economic development and the improvement of the standard of people’s living.

A ceremony for the completion of the modernization project at the Hyesan Youth Mine and the Hyesan-China Joint Venture Mineral Company was held on Monday.

Present there were Kang Min Chol, minister of Mining Industry, Kim Hi Thaek and officials concerned, Liu Hongcai, Chinese ambassador to the DPRK, and staff members of his embassy and Han Youhong, president of the Wanxiang Resources Co., Ltd. of China, and personages concerned.

Ri Mun Yong, manager of the Ryanggang Provincial Mining Complex, made an address to be followed by congratulatory and other speeches.

At the end of the ceremony, the participants went round production processes.

That day a reception was given in connection with the ceremony.

Although foreign investors and aid groups frequently build/ repair / upgrade North Korea’s state owned enterprises, it is rare that they are given any credit for their work in the official media.

Previous posts about the Hyesan Mine:
1. Poor electricity supply (2011-5-16)

3. Mine is flooded (2007-11-1)

4. China investing in mine (2007-4-12)

5. Chinese investing in mine (2006-12-24)

Additional mining information:
1. DPRK – China minerals for food program (2011-8-19)

2. DPRK looking to export rare earths (2011-7-23)

3. DPRK – China trade: 1995 – 2009 (2011-6-7)

4. Increase in DPRK’s mineral resources exports to China expected again for this year (2011-2-28)

5. DPRK – China mining deal (2011-2-6)

6. China expanding mining rights in DPRK (2010-1-15)

Pictured above in Wonsan: Possibly a new yacht (see more here)

According to the Choson Ilbo:

The North Korean regime has spent US$1.04 billion since 2008 importing luxury goods in contravention of UN Security Council resolutions.

According to data Grand National Party lawmaker Yoon Sang-hyun obtained from the Foreign Ministry and other government agencies, the regime imported luxury goods worth $272.14 million in 2008, $322.53 million in 2009, and $446.17 million in 2010.

TVs, digital cameras, and video recorders made up the largest proportion, jumping from $115.47 million in 2008 to $215.95 million in 2010.

Luxury cars and parts came second and movie equipment such as film cameras and projectors third.

UN Security Council resolutions 1718 and 1874 ban exports of luxury goods and weapons of mass destruction to the North.

The amount the regime spent buying luxury goods was about 10 times the total humanitarian aid of $107.29 million it received from South Korea and the international community over the same period.

Read the full story here.

Additional information:
1. Back in July, there were several estimates of DPRK luxury goods imports based on Chinese data.

2. The DPRK maintains appx 200-300 foreign trade companies.

3. Office 38 is reportedly responsible for engaging in trade deals.

4. On the life of an overseas North Korean trade agent.

5. Here is an American Hummer parked at the Yangakdo Hotel.

According to the Choson Ilbo:

According to the Unification Ministry, 123 firms were operating in the industrial park as of July, with combined production output amounting to US$34.87 million in May, up 25 percent from $27.79 million year-on-year.

The total volume of inter-Korean trade through the industrial park reached $825.88 million in the first half of this year, up 19.5 percent from last year and a whopping 135.8 percent from 2009.

South Korean staff dwindled from 1,461 in 2008, when inter-Korean trade was at its height, to 801 in May this year, but the number of North Korean workers rose from 36,650 to 47,172. And some 3,700 more North Korean workers were hired even since May last year when the South banned new investments there after the North sank the Navy corvette Cheonon in March.

At the moment, the regime is unlikely to shut down the industrial park, since nearly 50,000 North Koreans are working there. But experts stress that the government should take the seizure of the properties in the resort as a warning and be prepared for anything that the regime could do.

“There’s nothing we can be sure of in inter-Korean relations,” said Dong Yong-seung, a researcher at the Samsung Economic Research Institute. “Risk factors always exist because the government launched the Kaesong project without providing any safety net to protect its people and properties, as in the case of the Mt. Kumgang tour project.”

South Korean investments in the industrial park amount to W920 billion (US$1=W1,079) — W540 billion invested by the 123 firms, and W380 billion from the government and public corporations to lay the infrastructure, including electricity and communications facilities, and landscaping.

If the regime shuts down the industrial park, the South would suffer double the losses it incurred from the regime’s seizure of the properties in Mt. Kumgang, which are worth W484.1 billion.

Read the full story here:
Kaesong Firms Worry as N.Korea Seizes Mt. Kumgang Assets
Choson Ilbo
2011-8-24

Pictured above (Google Earth): The Musan Mine, the DPRK’s largest.  See in Google Maps here.

According to the JoongAng Daily:

During his surprise May visit to China, North Korean leader Kim Jong-il secured free fertilizer and discounted food to help alleviate the impoverished country’s chronic food shortages.

A source in Beijing who monitors North Korea-China relations told the JoongAng Ilbo on Monday that Chinese officials agreed to provide 200,000 tons of fertilizer free of charge as well as 500,000 tons of corn at a discount in exchange for rights to North Korea’s abundant natural resources.

“When 200,000 tons of fertilizer is planted on North Korean soil, it can bring about a three-fold increase in the harvest,” the source said. “This can be the equivalent of giving 600,000 tons of food.”

The source added that China agreed to sell the 500,000 tons of corn for half of the international rate, which would be $30 per ton.

The corn, the source said, had already crossed the border into North Korea from northeastern China.

In exchange, Kim will allow China access to his country’s natural resources.

“The two parties agreed to participate in the extraction of buried rare earth minerals in Musan in Hamgyong Province,” the source said. “It’s quite a profit for China as it is thirsty for materials.”

North Korea is estimated to have around 20 million tons of rare earth minerals, which are vital in the production of high-tech goods.

The Beijing-based source said the agreement gives China the responsibility for the cost of building roads to transport the natural resources as well as lending equipment.

In exchange, North Korea will hand over 50 percent of the extracted rare earth minerals free of charge to China, with the rest to be sold to China at international market rates.

Meanwhile, other sources said that Kim also received a health checkup during his stay in China.

“When Kim Jong-il was visiting Yangzhou, he received a special examination from an oriental medicine doctor that the highest Chinese elite have gone to over the years,” a source familiar with North Korean issues said

The source added: “Kim Jong-il has never trusted China’s Western medicine. I heard from a Chinese official that Kim received an oriental medicine diagnosis by taking his pulse and that it did not involve drawing blood.”

Additional Information:

1. Here is a post linking to all the major DPRK food stories this year.

2. The media has reported on other DPRK food barter deals with Cambodia and Myanmar.

3. The role of the Musan Mine in DPRK-PRC relations has been quite interesting.  Here are previous posts on the mine.

Read the full story here:
North got fertilizer on Kim’s trip to China
JoongAng Daily
Chang Se-jeong
2011-8-19

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
2011-8-11

Despite the current impasse in inter-Korean relations, the trade volume in the Kaesong Industrial Complex (KIC) continues to rise, up about 20 percent against last year.

According to the ROK Ministry of Unification, the inter-Korean trade via Kaesong totaled 825.88 million USD in the first six months of 2011. In comparison to last year’s 691.09 million USD, this is a 19.5 percent increase (134.795 million USD) and a whopping 135.8 percent climb (475.64 million USD) from 2009.

The total import reached 444.98 million USD, up 36.4 percent from last year. The total export recorded 389 million USD, a slight increase of 4.3 percent.

As of June 2011, there are about 123 companies reported to be in Kaesong. A total of 560 South Korean staffs work in the KIC, 155 of which joined since June of last year. There was also a boost in the number of North Korean workers; 3,161 new workers joined the complex from the year before, making the current number of North Korean employees 47,172.

In comparison, both commercial trade including general trade (mineral and agricultural products) and noncommercial trade such as humanitarian assistance and socio-cultural exchanges dwindled 16.2 percent (161.34 million USD) from the previous year.

The figure suggests the plunge was triggered by the sanctions imposed by the South Korean government on North Korea since May 24 of last year — a response to North Korea’s deadly provocation in March 2010 — cutting off most of the humanitarian assistance and exchanges. According to the ministry of unification, before the sanctions went into effect, general trade that comprised 30 percent fell below 1 percent and humanitarian assistance became nonexistent.

According to a recent survey conducted in the complex, economic loss engendered by the May 24 sanctions are estimated to be 3.875 billion USD. Out of the 154 total economic cooperation and trade firms in Kaesong, 104 claimed to have suffered economically, totaling over 430 million USD in losses.

The survey was conducted from January 24 to March 25 with 154 firms: 79.2 percent indicated the recent sanctions have significantly impacted their businesses; 3.2 percent answered “a little” effect; none answered “no effect at all.”

Moreover, 78.6 percent responded that the sanctions led to interruption in business operations and 12.3 percent replied that the sanctions resulted in complete shutdown.

In addition, reduction of staffs was also linked to the sanctions, in which 34.4 percent reported to have downsized by 20 percent, while 26.7 percent reported 30 to 40 percent cut backs in the number of staff.

According to Yonhap:

North Korea imported more corn and less rice from China in the first half of this year than in the same period a year ago apparently due to a lack of foreign cash, a study showed Sunday.

North Korea’s grain imports from the neighboring country in the six-month period consisted of 38.2 percent corn, 37.5 percent flour, 16.9 percent rice and 7.2 percent beans, according to an analysis of the two countries’ trade by Kwon Tae-jin, vice president of the Korea Rural Economic Institute.

Last year, the figures stood at 34.2 percent flour, 28.8 percent corn, 19.3 percent rice and 16.4 percent beans, indicating an overall increase in imports of cheaper grains such as corn and flour this year, according to the study based on data from the Korea International Trade Association. Imports of rice and beans, meanwhile, fell from the same period last year.

This year, imports of beans cost $661 per ton on average, while a ton of rice, flour and corn sold for $538, $395 and $304, respectively.

The total amount of grain imports rose 5.5 percent to 149,173 tons, up from 141,395 tons in the first half of last year, apparently reflecting food shortages in the impoverished nation, the study said. Grain imports cost US$404 per ton on average, up 8.6 percent from $372 last year, bringing the total cost to $60.3 million, or 14.4 percent more than last year.

“The amount of grain imports last year was larger than in most years, but the fact that (North Korea) imported even more this year seems to indicate a shortage of food,” Kwon said in his study. “The larger imports of corn than beans or rice appears to be the result of a lack of foreign currency.”

Meanwhile, North Korea also boosted its imports of fertilizers by 91 percent in the first half of this year, buying a total of 190,396 tons compared with 99,588 tons in the same period last year. The country bought more than 164,000 tons of ammonium sulfate, which is sold at $188 per ton, while only importing some 25,000 tons of urea for $346 per ton.

“It seems like either fertilizer production in North Korea has dropped significantly, or they are aiming to boost their food production by a large amount,” Kwon said.

The Daily NK also published a story on these findings.

Read the full story here:
Lack of foreign cash forces N. Korea to buy more corn, less rice
Yonhap
2011-8-14

UPDATE 3 (2011-9-27): The Center for Nonproliferation Studies hosted a panel discussion on Mr. Pollack’s report.  You can see all the presentations here.

UPDATE 2: The Washington Post has recently covered this study.

UPDATE 1: 38 North has published an article by Mr. Pollack which provides an interesting narrative of the market for North Korean missiles.

ORIGINAL POST: The Choson Ilbo published the following:

Forty percent of ballistic missiles developing nations have imported since 1987 came from North Korea, VOA reported Thursday.

The claim comes in a report titled “The Evolution of North Korea’s Ballistic Missile Market” by Joshua Pollack, a nuclear proliferation expert at the U.S. Science Applications International Corporation, who says, “More than 40 percent of the roughly 1,200 theater ballistic missile systems supplied to the developing world between 1987 and 2009 came from North Korea.”

During this period Iran, Egypt, Syria, Libya, Yemen, the U.A.E., and Pakistan imported missiles from the North. The North topped the list of ballistic missile suppliers, followed by Russia (400) and China (270).

But the North’s missile export began declining rapidly in 1994.

North Korea’s time as supplier of “complete missile systems” to the Middle East at large ended because the Middle East no longer had the need for rapid arms buildup and missile stockpiles after the end of the Iran-Iraq War, Pollack said.

The North proved “adaptable to shifting market and security environments” by “turning instead to the export of missile components and materials.” But missile importers had less demand for North Korean missiles as they built their own production capabilities, he added.

Pollack’s report was carried in the July issue of The Nonproliferation Review published by James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at Monterey Institute of International Studies.

Mr. Pollack’s full report can be found here (PDF). It is well worth reading. Mr. Pollack is also a blogger at ArmsControlWonk.com.

UPDATE 2 (2011-7-20): The Daily NK offers some more statistics:

It has been confirmed the North Korean authorities were concentrating on importing luxury items for privileged people, while international humanitarian organizations were worrying about North Korea’s chronic food shortage and the damage to the vulnerable classes.

According to statistics from the South Korean government and Chinese customs, from January to May this year, the cost of food import is only about 4% out of the total amount of imports, which translates to about 46 million dollars out of 1.148 billion dollars.

The total amount of trade with China was doubled as compared with the corresponding period from last year: exports were increased by 217% and imports by 58%. The export amount is 812 million dollars while the import is 1.148 billion dollars.

In comparison, around 10 million dollars were used to purchase high quality liquor, cigarettes and others for privileged classes. The amount of cigarette imports, such as Marlboro, Mild Seven and others, is 7.5 million dollars. 2.4 million dollars were used to buy Cognac or whisky like Chivas Regal, Hennessy X.O. and other kinds of alcohol.

The amount of alcohol imported was increased by 94 % compared to the same period of last year.

It was reported that other items, such as international designer brands clothes, watches, and other items and electronic goods from SONY and Samsung were also imported.

It also showed that North Korean authorities sold wheat it had received from the international community to other countries. 200,000 tons of phosphate rock, which is materials for fertilizer, provided by Middle Eastern countries for free in 2010, were sold to some countries in Europe.

In addition, since South Korean markets have been blocked due to May 24 Measures, North Korea tried to download agricultural products, which are disguised as Chinese products, onto South Korean vessels in international waters by secretly working with Chinese traders. The South Korean government reported that there were four cases last year and 11 cases so far this year.

So apparently everyone has seen the data source but me.

UPDATE 1 (2011-7-22): The Los Angeles Times picked up on the report and offered a few more details:

North Korea’s importing of luxury goods from China nearly doubled in the first five months of this year, compared with the same time period for 2010, according to a report by Beijing customs officials obtained by the South Korean Unification Ministry.

…

The communist regime spent $46 million on imported corn, rice and other food staples, but it also spent $10 million on luxury items from January through May of this year. Imported through China, the items reportedly include Marlboro cigarettes, Hennessy cognac, whiskey and Japanese beer, South Korean officials said this week, quoting the Chinese customs report.

The imports included about $500,000 worth of high-grade beef, apparently for luxury meals, which North Korean leader Kim Jong Il uses to maintain the support of the power elite, Seoul officials said.

…

This year, the regime again requested food aid, citing reduced crop yields. Though the European Union plans to send $14.5 million in food aid, the United States and South Korea have been reticent to supply such aid.

Some scholars believe that North Korea has exaggerated its need for food, alleging that the aid is turned over to the military or stored for future use, such as a planned celebration next year to mark the anniversary of the regime.

“I do not believe these claims about mass starvation,” said Andrei N. Lankov, a professor at Kookmin University in Seoul and the author of several books on North Korean history and politics.

He called the move by Pyongyang “a deliberate campaign to get free food, which will then be distributed to the privileged groups as government gifts. This will allow them to increase their legitimacy and win some popular support at the expense of the Western and South Korean taxpayers.”

I still have not seen the original Chinese source.  If anyone has it, please send it my way.

ORIGINAL POST (2011-7-20): Yonhap cites an unnamed South Korean government official (anyone want to take credit for these statistics?) who claims that the DPRK is skirting UN sanctions and obtaining luxury goods.  According to the article:

Despite years of food shortages, North Korean leader Kim Jong-il has engaged in the gift politics of showering his top aides and other elites with luxury goods to win their loyalty.

Some ruling elites also enjoyed McDonald’s hamburgers delivered from China via Air Koryo, North Korea’s flagship airline, the official said, without elaborating.

The North also spent about US$7.5 million in buying cigarettes such as Marlboro and Mild Seven in the first five months, a rise of 117 percent compared to the same period last year, according to figures by South Korea and China. It also showed that the North imported $2.4 million worth of Hennessy Cognac, whiskey and Japanese beer, up 94 percent compared to the same period last year.

The trade volume between North Korea and China stood at US$1.96 billion in the first five months, twice as much as in the same period last year, according to Lee.

Since the article does not name a source or provide any way to track down the numbers, take them with a grain of salt.

Read the full story here:
N. Korea imports luxury goods for ruling elites despite food shortages
Yonhap
2011-7-20