North Korean Economy Watch

There has been a plethroa of articles on the ROK/DPRK train crossing.  Here is a grab-bag of facts and sources:

Joong Ang Daily
5/15/2007
Unification Minister Lee Jae-joung expressed hope that regular inter-Korean rail services would transport workers to an industrial complex in the North’s city of Kaesong as well as serve as a mode of transportation for South Korean tourists at the Mount Kumgang resort.  However, North Korea has only agreed to one test run.

The sticking point was the number of passengers aboard the trains. South Korea stressed the need for an equal number of North Koreans, but North Korea declined the offer, citing unspecified reasons, ministry officials said. The two sides will exchange passenger lists via an inter-Korean economic office in Kaesong tomorrow.

The two Koreas are set to conduct test runs on a 27.3-kilometer (17-mile) line between Munsan Station and Kaesong Station in the western section, and on a 25.5-kilometer line between Jejin Station and Kumgang Station in the eastern section.

Rare experience aboard N. Korean train across the border
Yonhap
Sohn Suk-joo
5/17/2007

At the urging of North Korean conductors, 100 South Koreans and 50 North Koreans boarded a five-car train at 11:25 a.m. With no speaker system at Kumgangsan Station at the North’s scenic mountain along the east coast, conductors repeated “Please board the train” through a loudspeaker mounted upon a South Korean-made Hyundai Starex utility vehicle.

Painted green on the main body and the roof a faint gray, the facade of the train was far from modern. “The train looks like South Korea’s obsolete third-class train, but its ability is better than that,” said Lim Jong-il, a South Korean official at the Ministry of Construction and Transportation.

South Korean Construction Minister Lee Yong-sup, Kim Yong-sam, the North’s railway minister, and some 20 South and North Korean journalists crowded into the second car of the train. The smell of new paint assailed the nostrils upon ascending the steps, while a pair of portraits of Kim Il-sung and his son Kim Jong-il hung on the wall above the door.

The seating arrangement was face-to-face, and refreshments for passengers were set on a small table in front of the window — one lemon-lime soda, one strawberry juice, one bottled water, two apples and a pear. North Korean female attendants served a cup of ginseng tea for passengers later.

The upright, ivory-colored vinyl seats were a little bit uncomfortable and did not recline, but the cushions were softer than they appeared to be.

Outside the window, a uniformed North Korean conductor waved a red flag and goose-stepped past the train, which signaled the impending departure. A few North Korean security officers came inside to check the number of passengers and asked journalists jostling for position to sit down.   

At 11:27 a.m. a long whistle sounded, reminiscent of an old-time steam locomotive. The train spluttered back and forth several times and then slowly started forward. “North Korean trains usually whistle a lot,” a South Korean transportation official said. 

North Korean middle school students, who attended a ceremony, started to wave their hands, and South Korean passengers responded in kind. The train moved out of Kumgangsan Station at the speed of 10 kilometers per hour, and North Koreans working nearby just looked at the train without reacting in a friendly manner.

Some 50 meters away from the railway on the right side, a paved road appeared as the scenic Mount Geumgang faded from sight. Rice paddies were waiting for rice seedlings to be planted, but no peasant was seen working outside.

Unexpectedly, well wishers were South Korean tourists traveling to the Mount Geumgang resort in a convoy of eight buses. “At this time of the day tourist buses go to the resort,” a South Korean official said.

At 11:30 a.m. the stretch of hills and mountains continued, and the clouds moved quickly against the blue sky, cleansed from the previous day’s rain.

A few Toyota jeeps driven by soldiers, military jeeps and trucks drove parallel with the train and then fell behind. North Korean soldiers were stationed at the checkpoints of major intersections.

Then the track turned sharply, a rare occurrence on South Korean track. The sharp turns came again and again, and a woman peeked outside the window at a nearby village.

The overall atmosphere was friendly, a throwback to a picnic in the 1970s-80s on a slow, squeaking train. Hills and mountains passed by, and splendid pine trees of all kinds of shapes. After awhile the Nam River appeared on the right side of the train. At one village, some 10 residents came out and looked over the communal wall to watch the passing train.

At 11:50 a.m. the train passed Samilpo Station. The painted name on the station was very small, like Kumgangsan Station, and an oversized portrait of Kim Il-sung hung on the front of the station, along with pro-communist and cult propaganda slogans.

The train crossed the river on a bridge restored with steel plates provided by South Korea. Outside the window, North Korean tourist attractions such as Haegumgang and Samilpo were seen a little farther away.

At 11:50 a.m. some passengers pushed up the windows, and the unpolluted air coming through the open windows refreshed them. A group of 10 North Korean soldiers stood guarding a storage house of diesel engine trains built for the railway test run. There was no other train in sight.

The train slowed down at Kamho Station, where North Korean customs officials were stationed. It was 11:55 a.m.

Around 12:00 p.m. four customs officials and two conductors boarded each car of the train. One of them shouted, “We fervently welcome you who have become the first passengers of the train! Now we will start customs clearance procedures.”

Conductors checked the identities of the passengers and digital cameras. They asked a passenger to delete a photo of portraits of Kim Il-sung and Kim Jong-il that had been blurred from the shaking of the camera.

At 12:15 p.m. the conductors suddenly moved to the exit and disembarked. They must have gotten orders to let it pass, as the inspection took longer than expected. The train started to move again right away.

“Now you will see an outpost about 200 meters. It is the Military Demarcation Line,” said Kim Kyong-jung, chief of the inter-Korean railway team at the Ministry of Construction and Transportation.

A sharp whistle blew, and the train picked up speed, double its previous pace. The shaking was palpable, but not enough to affect the bottles on the small table. With the speed increasing, the frequency of the whistle’s call also increased.

In five minutes, the train passed the Northern Limit Line and went into the Demilitarized Zone. At 12:21 p.m., it passed the Military Demarcation Line to roars of applause. The train slowed a bit and the passengers became quiet, awaiting arrival.

At 12:25 p.m., a South Korean tourist observatory appeared, and some 200 tourists on the porch waved their hands eagerly, welcoming the North Korean train. Wide paved roads came into view and the train arrived at Jejin Station five minutes later. Amid the loud sound of a welcoming brass band and the cheering crowd, the train stopped at a South Korean station for the first time in more than half a century.

Trains cross inter-Korean border for first time in over 50 years
Yonhap
5/17/2007

A North Korean train traveling on reconnected track along the east coast of the Korean Peninsula on Thursday crossed the heavily armed border to return to its point of departure after a brief stay here.

At the same time, a South Korean train returned to the South in the west of the Korean Peninsula.

Earlier in the day, the two trains, one carrying 100 South Koreans and the other 50 North Koreans, crossed the Military Demarcation Line (MDL) dividing the two countries for the first time in more than half a century.

“It took more than half a century to cross this short, approximately 20-kilometer distance. We have to prevent anyone from blocking the railways. They were so hard to reconnect,” Kim Yong-sam, North Korea’s railway minister, said in a luncheon speech after arriving here.

In response, South Korean Construction Minister Lee Yong-sup hailed the test run of the cross-border railways, suggesting South and North Korea cooperate in promoting the mutual interest and prosperity of the Korean people.

At 11:30 a.m., Lee, who led the 100-member delegation to North Korea Thursday morning, boarded the North Korean train in Kumgangsan Station near the scenic Mount Geumgang resort for a test run on a 25.6-kilometer track in the eastern section of the peninsula.

At the same time, Kwon Ho-ung, chief councilor of the North Korean Cabinet, who had led the 50-member delegation to the South, boarded the South Korean train at Munsan Station in the western side of the peninsula on a restored 27.3-kilometer track, along with his South Korean counterpart, Lee Jae-joung.

Before the trains departed, South and North Korea held ceremonies to mark the historic event at Kumgangsan and Munsan stations, respectively.

“I hope it will contribute to forming a joint economic community and making balanced development on the Korean Peninsula. A new curtain of peace has been raised on the peninsula,” Lee said in a commemorative speech.

In his speech, Kwon said that North Korea will make every effort to make sure that the “train of unification” runs along a “track” of inter-Korean collaboration, with its emphasis on peace and understanding.

“Right at this moment, however, the challenge from divisive forces inside and outside is continuing. We should not waiver or be derailed from the track of national sovereignty and inter-Korean collaboration,” Kwon said.

The one-time test run came only after North Korea reluctantly agreed to provide military security arrangements last week. The tracks have been set to undergo tests since they were restored in 2003, while a set of parallel roads has been in use since 2005 for South Koreans traveling to the North.

In May 2006, North Korea abruptly called off the scheduled test runs, apparently under pressure from its hard-line military. The cancellation led to the mothballing of an economic accord in which North Korea would receive US$80 million worth of light industry raw materials from the South in return for its natural resources. North Korea’s subsequent missile and nuclear weapons tests further clouded hopes of implementing the agreement.

The reconnection of roads and train lines severed during the 1950-53 Korean War was one of the tangible inter-Korean rapprochement projects agreed upon following the historic summit between then South Korean President Kim Dae-jung and North Korean leader Kim Jong-il in 2000.

South Korea hopes to use the restored railways to help North Korean workers commute to a joint industrial complex in the North Korean border city of Kaesong as well as to transport South Korean tourists to the North’s scenic Mount Geumgang.

The Gyeongui (Seoul-Sinuiju) line cutting across the western section of the border was severed on June 12 in 1951, while the Donghae (East Coast) line crossing the eastern side was cut shortly after the outbreak of the Korean War.

South and North Korea used radio communication between Dorasan Station in the South and Panmun Station in the North for the western rail line, and between the South’s Jejin Station and the North’s Kamho Station for the eastern one. The stations are closest ones to the border on both sides.

In March, the two Koreas agreed to put humanitarian and economic inter-Korean projects back on track just days after North Korea promised to take the first steps toward its nuclear dismantlement in return for energy aid and other concessions from the other five members of the six-party talks.

South and North Korea are still technically at war, as the Korean War ended in an armistice, not a peace treaty.

Korean Train Crossing Seen as Sign of Progress
New York Times
Choe Sang-Hun
5/17/2007

[excerpts]

South Korea has long dreamed of building a trans-Korea railroad that would connect its train network to China and to the Trans-Siberian Railway in the former Soviet Union, creating a so-called Iron Silk Road.

North Korea blocks overland access to Asia, which makes South Koreans “feel as if we live in an island,” the South Korean transportation minister, Lee Yong Sup, said yesterday.

A trans-Korea railroad would offer a faster and cheaper way for South Korea to bring exports that are now shipped by sea to China and Europe. It would also provide a shortcut for Russian oil and other natural resources transported to South Korea. Such a rail system would save South Korea $34 to $50 a ton in shipping costs, said Lim Jae Kyung, a researcher at the Korea Transport Institute.

But before the dream of a trans-Korea rail system comes true, transportation analysts and government officials say, years of confidence-building talks and billions of dollars in investment in North Korea’s decrepit rail system will be needed.

Officials acknowledge that such a dream will not be made real until after North Korea gives up its nuclear weapons and improves its human rights record. Those moves would help build public support in South Korea for large investments across the border and would open the way for international development aid.

South Korean officials say a trans-Korea railroad would invigorate inter-Korean trade, which tripled from $430 million in 2000 to $1.35 billion last year.

It would also bring cash to North Korea, which could collect an estimated $150 million a year in transit fees from trains that pass through its territory, according to some estimates.

But it is unclear whether or when North Korea might agree to regular train service across the border.

Procuring international aid to renovate the rail network and letting trains from one of Asia’s most vibrant economies, carrying exports and tourists, rumble through its isolated territory could threaten the North Korean regime, analysts and others say.

The agreement came after South Korea promised to send North Korea 400,000 tons of rice, as well as $80 million worth of raw materials for shoes, soap and textiles.

South Korea has spent 544.5 billion won, or $589 million, on reconnecting the rail system, including 180 billion won in equipment, tracks and other material loaned to North Korea.

South Korean policy makers have called for patience in working toward reconciliation with the North. They have often been accused by conservative politicians and civic groups of giving in to North Korea’s strategy of extracting economic aid for every step toward reconciliation.

“This is a precious first step for a 1,000-mile journey,” Mr. Lee, the unification minister, said today.

South Korea has seen some tangible results in its overtures to the North in recent years.

The North Korean military cleared mines and moved some of its weapons to make room for the rail system and the Gaesong industrial complex. In addition, South Korean factory managers commute from Seoul to Gaesong using a road that was reconnected in 2004, and South Korean buses regularly take tourists to the Diamond Mountain resort in the North.

Daily NK
5/15/2007
Yang Jung A

KOTRA “Last year trade deficit $110mn.”

In 2006, North Korea’s trade deficit was over $110mn.

On the 14th, the Korea Trade-Investment Promotion Agency released a report on North Korea’s foreign trade stating, “Last year, North Korea’s imports totaled $2.049bn, an increase of 2.3% compared to 2005. However, exports decreased 5.2%, approximately $1.102bn worth of trade deficit.”

North Korea’s total foreign trade figures were close to $2.996bn, a decrease of 0.2% compared to the previous year.

KOTRA analysts said North Korea’s foreign economic situation worsened following the world attention it caused by its long range missile test last July and the subsequent October nuclear test.

Following the 2002 July economic reforms, North Korea’s foreign trade steadily increased, even peaking at $3bn, a considerable achievement compared to the early 90s. However, a sudden decrease in Western investment led to a significant reduction in overall trade.

Furthermore, North Korea’s number 1 trading partner is China with 56.7% of the total trade. That is followed by Thailand, the EU, Russia and Japan. Then again, trade by these countries including China cover 90% of North Korea’s total trade.

Whenever trade between North Korea, China and Thailand increased, there was a significant decrease in trade with Japan and the EU. Also, as North Korea’s foreign trade situation worsened, greater emphasis was placed on trade with China.

KOTRA’s report stated that a decrease in trade with the EU resulted from the implementation of economic sanctions by western countries which came about after North Korea launched a missile test that has the potential of hitting the United States and then tested a nuclear bomb underground several months later.

Consequently, there was an increase in trade with its traditional friendly nations, China and Thailand, KOTRA added.

KOTRA forecasts that as U.S.-North Korea relations improve, improvements in relations with the other nations will also occur providing a friendlier environment for North Korea’s economic situation. We may see reinvigorated North Korean foreign trade, however that will depend on how well the North Korean nuclear issue is resolved.

Joong Ang Daily
Hwang Young-jin
5/15/2007

North Korean trade with the EU and Japan went into a free fall last year, but China helped pick up the slack.

Missile and nuclear tests interfered with North Korean trade in 2006, leading to the country’s first decrease in five years, a report from the Korea Trade-Investment Promotion Agency said. Decreases in trade with the West caused by political problems were the biggest culprit, the agency said.

North Korean exports to Japan fell 41 percent while imports from Japan dropped 30 percent. Trade with the European Union went down 23 percent in exports and 18 percent in imports. The European Union and Japan are the world’s first- and third-largest economies. Trade with the world’s second-largest economy, the United States, was practically zero.

But trade with China, the nation closest to the North politically and geographically, served as a buffer to reduce the impact of the large drops in European and American trade, so the North’s overall trade figures didn’t change much, the agency said.

Almost 60 percent of North Korea’s trade is conducted with China. The North’s next-biggest trade partner was Thailand, which accounted for 12.5 percent.

The communist country’s trade volume in 2006 fell 0.2 percent, with exports dropping 5.2 percent to $947 million and imports increasing 2.3 percent to $2 billion. Trade has been growing since the start of the new millennium. In 2005, the total trade topped a record $3 billion.

With an international economic blockade in place, trade relations with Japan and the European Union got worse.

The Kotra report said the Feb. 13 agreement reached during the six-nation talks in Beijing regarding the nuclear issue is a positive signal for the recovery of North Korean trade, but it is up to North Korea whether to act on its commitments and allow trade to recover.

Inter-Korean trade was not considered in yesterday’s report. Trade between the two Koreas reached $1.3 billion in 2006, a 28 percent rise year-on-year. The South sold $830.1 million and bought $519.5 million.

Joong Ang Daily
Lee Young-jong
5/15/2007

With a one-time test run of an inter-Korean railroad set this week, South Korea’s Ministry of Unification said yesterday it will create an organization designed solely to provide $80 million worth of raw materials to North Korea.

The South promised to provide the materials, for light industry, in return for security assurances over the inter-Korean train line.

South Korea hopes the line will be permanent, but North Korea has only agreed to one test run.

The new organization will be jointly operated by related South Korean government agencies, Unification Ministry spokesman Kim Nam-sik said in a briefing yesterday. The agency will also represent South Korea in talks with the North over the joint development of a mine in North Korea.

The government is scheduled today to hold a meeting hosted by Unification Minister Lee Jae-joung to endorse a 2 billion won yearly budget for the organization, Kim said. The money will come from the Inter-Korean Cooperation Fund.

“The fund the government will provide to the organization is a kind of commission for doing state affairs instead of the government,” Kim said.

Yonhap
5/9/2007

Despite lingering tension over North Korea’s nuclear weapons program, inter-Korean commercial trade surged 43 percent in the first quarter of this year, compared with the same period a year earlier, the Unification Ministry said Wednesday.

Commercial trade between the two Koreas increased to US$346.99 million in the January-April period, up from $243.36 a year ago, thanks to an influx of zinc bullion, sand, fishery items, shoes and clothing into a joint industrial complex in the North Korean border city of Kaesong.

The industrial complex is the crowning achievement of a landmark summit between the leaders of the two Koreas in 2000. South Korean businesses use cheap North Korean labor to produce goods in Kaesong where 21 South Korean factories employ about 11,160 North Korean workers.

“Non-commercial trade between the two sides dropped 24 percent during the same time span, so the total inter-Korean trade rose 25.5 percent to $411 million,” the ministry said in a statement.

In late March, South Korea started to send fertilizer aid and flood relief supplies to the North.

The shipment came weeks after the two sides agreed to resume humanitarian aid and family reunion events, just days after North Korea promised to take steps to shut down its main nuclear reactor and eventually disable it in return for energy aid from South Korea, the United States, China, Russia and Japan.

Shortly after the North conducted missile tests in July, the South suspended food and fertilizer aid along with its emergency aid to the impoverished North. In retaliation, the communist nation suspended inter-Korean talks, family reunions and the construction of a family reunion center.

Yonhap
5/23/2007
Koreas fail to agree on details for swapping of raw materials, resources

South and North Korea on Wednesday failed to settle remaining differences over how to boost cooperation in light industry and natural resource development, the Unification Ministry said.

“The two sides just agreed to continue to discuss details regarding the issue,” the ministry said in a statement. The ministry did not provide details about when they will meet again.

Working-level officials could not agree on the list and price of raw materials the South is to provide the North in exchange for the right to develop natural resources in the communist country.

The North called for more than the South has earmarked for the shipment on the last day of the two-day talks held in the North Korean border city of Kaesong, according to South Korean officials.

Last month, South Korea agreed that it will provide raw materials to the North in June to help revive its threadbare light industry in return for the North’s natural resources. The two Koreas reached a similar swapping agreement in 2005, but it has not been implemented due mainly to the North Korean nuclear dispute.

In the agreement, the rice shipment, which will consist of 150,000 tons of domestic rice and 250,000 tons of imported rice, will be sent to the North late this month in the form of a loan to be paid back over the next 30 years with a 10-year grace period. Seoul hopes to link it with Pyongyang’s promise to take initial steps toward nuclear disarmament.

Last Tuesday, the South Korean government endorsed the spending of funds needed to provide rice and raw materials for light industry to North Korea. The South’s planned shipment of 400,000 tons of rice is worth US$170 million, while the provision of raw materials for light industry is worth $80 million.

In 2005, South Korea agreed to offer raw materials to the North to help it produce clothing, footwear and soap starting in 2006. In return, the North was to provide the South with minerals, such as zinc and magnesite, after mines were developed with South Korean investments guaranteed by Pyongyang.

But the economic accord was not implemented, as North Korea abruptly cancelled the scheduled test runs of inter-Korean railways in May last year, apparently under pressure from its powerful military.

Last Thursday, two trains crossed the Military Demarcation Line for the first time since the end of the 1950-53 Korean War. But critics said the test run of two railways, one in the east and the other in the west, is not likely to lead to the formal opening of the railways or to rail services for a joint industrial complex in Kaesong or for tours of the North’s Mount Geumgang.

As part of efforts to accelerate the formal opening of the inter-Korean rail service, the South plans to sound out the possibility of providing raw materials via reconnected railways during the working-level dialogue or the upcoming ministerial talks.

Koreas hold talks on swapping of raw materials for light industry
Yonhap
5/22/2007

South and North Korea on Tuesday held talks to work out details for boosting cooperation in light industry and natural resource development, the Unification Ministry said.

The aim of the working-level dialogue, being held in the North Korean border city of Kaesong for two days until Wednesday, is to focus on procedures for the South’s shipment of raw materials to the North in exchange for the right to develop North Korea’s natural resources.

During the talks, South and North Korea are scheduled to exchange agreement documents, which will then take effect immediately since the two sides successfully conducted test runs of cross-border railways, a precondition for the implementation of the accord, government officials said.

The South also plans to sound out the possibility of providing the materials via reconnected railways in a prelude to the formal opening of the inter-Korean rail service, according to sources.

“We are studying various ways of speeding up the formal opening of the Gyeongui (Seoul-Sinuiju) and Donghae (East Coast) tracks. The use of the tracks for the promised shipment of light industry raw materials could be an option,” a government source said, asking to remain anonymous because of the sensitivity of the issue.

On Thursday, trains crossed the Military Demarcation Line for the first time since the end of the 1950-53 Korean War. But critics said the test run of two railways, one in the east and the other in the west, is not likely to lead to the formal opening of the railways or to rail services for a joint industrial complex in Kaesong and tours of the North’s Mount Geumgang.

Earlier this month, South Korea said it will ship the first batch of light industry materials to the North via ship on the Incheon-Nampo route, but the mode of transportation for the rest has yet to be decided.

Last month, South Korea agreed that it will provide raw materials to the North in June to help revive its threadbare light industry in return for its natural resources. The two Koreas reached a similar swapping agreement in 2005, but it has not been implemented due mainly to the North Korean nuclear dispute.

In the agreement, the rice shipment, which will consist of 150,000 tons of domestic rice and 250,000 tons of imported rice, will be sent to the North late this month in the form of a loan to be paid back over the next 30 years with a 10-year grace period. Seoul hopes to link it with Pyongyang’s promise to take initial steps toward nuclear disarmament.

Last Tuesday, the South Korean government endorsed the spending of funds needed to provide rice and raw materials for light industry to North Korea. The South’s planned shipment of 400,000 tons of rice is worth US$170 million, while the provision of raw materials for light industry is worth $80 million. The approval will be promulgated on Tuesday.

In 2005, South Korea agreed to offer raw materials to the North to help it produce clothing, footwear and soap starting in 2006. In return, the North was to provide the South with minerals, such as zinc and magnesite, after mines were developed with South Korean investments guaranteed by Pyongyang.

But the economic accord was not implemented, as North Korea abruptly cancelled the scheduled test runs of the railways in May last year, apparently under pressure from its powerful military.

Korea Times
Ryu Jin
4/30/2007

At a quarter to 7 a.m. on a normal weekday, a rush to work opens the morning of a North Korean town seated just minutes away from the heavily fortified border with South Korea.

Several blue commuter buses, just like ones that can be seen in downtown Seoul, stop in front of a sign reading, “Kaesong Industrial Zone’’ and spew out hundreds of North Korean workers.

As the working time draws near, they hasten their steps toward their respective workplaces, owned and managed by people from across the border. Some 13,000 North Korean workers, mostly women in their 20s and 30s, spend most of the daytime in the small capitalist enclave in the southwestern part of their Stalinist nation.

“Welcome!’’ “Good Morning!’’ Several South Koreans say as they greet their North Korean colleagues in front of the main gate of Shinwon Ebenezer. Hwang Woo-seung, director of the apparel company’s Kaesong branch, says that they have never skipped a day _ regardless of rain or snow _ without such greetings since the factory went into operation in 2004.

Closing hours are by and large around 5 p.m. But almost half of the 13,000 laborers work overtime until 7 p.m. in order to return home early on Saturdays. By the first half of 2008, the number of North Koreans working in the joint industrial park is expected to reach 100,000, according to South Korean officials.

From Seeds to Young Plants

Launched three years ago, the Kaesong Industrial Complex has been a gauge of the situation on the Korean Peninsula, where hundreds of thousands of troops confront each other across the border, which remains as the last flashpoint of the Cold War era.

Operations, for example, had nearly stopped late last year in the wake of a nuclear test by the North. Since the Feb. 13 denuclearization agreement, however, businesses have gone back to normal.

A free trade agreement (FTA) struck in April between South Korea and the United States, which opened up the possibility of the Kaesong products being exported to America as “made in Korea’’ goods, also breathed a fresh enthusiasm into the industrial zone.

Foreign eyes watching the complex are also changing. A growing number of foreign delegates are coming to the zone, and their evaluation has been quite positive. Moody’s Investors Service analysts Thomas Byrne, who visited the site on Feb. 9, said Kaesong is the “optimistic future’’ of South and North Korea.

Currently, 22 firms _ mostly small- and medium-sized ones _ are making clothes, shoes, watches and kitchen pots in the 1 million-pyong (3.3 million-square-meters) pilot site of the Kaesong complex, which will sprawl over a total 20 million-pyong (66 million-square-meters) in the coming years.

Since the first products came out in December 2004, annual output has increased from $14.9 million (13.8 billion won) in 2005 to $73.7 million (68.4 billion won) in 2006.

Despite potential risks stemming from political uncertainty, the zone has an inescapable economic logic _ the cheap labor and land of the North combined with the capital and technology of the South.

Proximity also makes for an attractive alternative for South Korean firms looking to move their plants to China. The distribution cost in Kaesong is one-tenth that of China, land price one-fifteenth and the labor cost one-twentieth, according to statistics.

Some 300 companies are expected to fill up the whole first-stage experimental site by the first half of next year, hiring up to 100,000 North Korean workers.

“It means that an up-and-coming new city is being created in the border area with a total population of about 300,000 to 400,000, when the families of the workers are added,’’ says Kim Dong-keun, chairman of the Kaesong Industrial District Management Committee (KIDMAC).

Kaesong hopes to invite as many as 3,000 companies eventually, employing some 350,000 workers by the mid-2010s, when the fully-fledged complex (roughly the same size of Changwon) is completed with apartment buildings, hotels, shopping centers and even an amusement park and golf courses.

Way to Integration

North Korea, for its part, envisions Kaesong as its own version of Shenzhen, one of the first “special economic zones’’ in China, and hopes that the new industrial site could jump-start its near-bankrupt economy.

Since the mid-1990s, when it was severely hit by great famines amid the first nuclear standoff with the United States, North Korea has remained a wasteland plagued by the so-called triple distresses _ the shortage of food, cash (foreign exchange) and energy.

With the end of the Cold War, North Korea lost hefty aid from China and the now-defunct Soviet Union, which had propped up its flagging economy. In a desperate move, Pyongyang launched an experiment with the free market in July 2002, deregulating prices and hiking salaries.

North Koreans had also anticipated the businesses with South Korea, which started in the wake of the historic inter-Korean summit in 2000, to bring money into the cash-strapped country.

But the ambitious tour project at Mt. Kumgang above the eastern side of the border had been too fainthearted to turn profitable because it was limited only to tourists.

Kaesong was a different story. While South Koreans saw the tour project largely as symbolic, they were ready to offer more financial incentives for companies to invest in the border town.

For the South Korean decision-makers, Kaesong became the site of an experiment to transplant capitalism to the Stalinist state, plagued by an inefficient bureaucracy and pervasive malnutrition.

Of course, the venture poses risks for the tightly controlled hermit kingdom, which has been ruled by hereditary “monarchs’’ _ the late leader Kim Il-sung and his son Kim Jong-il _ for more than half a century. A major city with about 150,000 residents, Kaesong will inevitably be exposed to what the North Korean leadership calls decadent Western culture.

Suh Ye-taik, an executive director of Hyundai Asan, selected by the North as its major business partner, recalls that it was an offer that nobody expected when the North Koreans first proposed Kaesong. Pyongyang originally wanted to develop other places such as Shinuiju and Haeju.

“It was an unexpected offer in political terms,’’ he said. “But we decided to opt for Kaesong in consideration of the proximity and other conditions of location.’’

Kaesong, seated about 140 kilometers south of Pyongyang and some 60 kilometers north of Seoul, is on a point of strategic importance in the case of a military conflict between the two Koreas. North Korea even yielded some kilometers by withdrawing its conventional artillery.

Kim Jong-il, however, seems to be well aware of the fact that his own hold on power depends on reviving the economy. Kim Heung-kwang, a defector from the North who had worked as a professor at Pyongyang Computer Technology University, predicted in a recent thesis to the Korea Institute of Science and Technology Information (KISTI) that North Korea would open up the Internet to individuals as early as 2009.

“Security guarantees and restoration from the economic plight are the top priorities for the survival of the North Korean regime,’’ said Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul. “They realize opening is the only way out of their predicament.’’

While Kaesong is a touchstone for economic integration in the unification process, the workplaces in the industrial zone are test boards for cultural and societal assimilation of the two Koreas, which have walked different paths for the past several decades since the 1950-53 Korean War.

Shinwon is a good example. South Korean managers say they now see drastic changes in the attitudes of North Korean workers. People from across the border had kept an awkward silence in the first years. But smiles and small chatter has become part of the atmosphere.

“The quality of the products here is good because the Northern workers are very productive,’’ said Hwang, the head of the apparel company’s Kaesong factory. “They now learn skills much faster than they did in the initial years.’’

They are also getting familiar with dialects from the other side of the border. In the three-storied factory of Stafild that produces medical walking shoes by some 1,800 North Korean workers, visitors overheard “One for all, all for one’’ _ the motto of the Stalinist state.

For Brighter Future

While its ambition is grand and lofty, the Kaesong complex still faces major hurdles _ both from inside and outside. One of the biggest problems is the U.S. economic sanctions against North Korea, which ban the sale or shipment of key strategic goods such as high-tech computers.

Though the South Korean government is trying to attract the investment of some information-technology (IT) companies in the long term, no high-tech firms have so far advanced in to Kaesong.

So, what the zone really needs is a genuine political thaw between North Korea and the U.S., government officials as well as experts point out. A strong inter-Korean relationship is another important factor to affect the joint project.

Labor conditions in Kaesong are a problem of its own. The average wage is only $57.50 per month, which is not provided in cash. North Korean workers receive coupons to get the necessities of life, though their standard of living is much higher than those in other areas of the country.

Largely focused on red brick industries, which led the economic growth of the South until the 1980s, some workplaces in the zone are exposed to dangerous environments and workers are not entitled to the core labor rights, such as the right of collective action.

Foreign investment will be a touchstone of the venture’s success in the long term. South Korea plans to invite U.S. investors to the industrial estate in October in an effort to expedite foreign investment.

“Foreign investment will help stabilize the operation of the industrial complex and will be a good experience for the management of other firms,’’ said Kim Dong-keun, the KIDMAC chairman.

South Korean officials also expect that from now on some large South Korean enterprises will come into the zone to continue the development of the Kaesong industrial park.

“So far, the zone has been occupied largely by small- and medium-sized companies,’’ Unification Minister Lee Jae-joung said at a breakfast lecture late last month. “We expect the international credit rating of Kaesong will improve if leading enterprises move in.’’

On April 27, the National Assembly of South Korea passed a law that supports the industrial zone. Firms operating in Kaesong will be provided with the same benefits enjoyed by the small- and medium-sized companies in other areas such as a 7-percent tax exemption. South Korean workers in Kaesong will also be eligible for the Labor Standard Act and the country’s four major insurance policies.

“Kaesong Industrial Complex is a win-win situation for both the South and the North,’’ Kim said. “Both economies will complement each other through the project and will be the steppingstone to national unification and integration.’’

Korea Times
Kim Yon-se
4/30/2007

Hyundai Group is gearing up to activate its inter-Korean businesses as negative factors, such as North Korea’s nuclear test last October, have started to settle down.

As early as this year, Hyundai Asan, the group’s tourism unit, plans to operate cable cars on Mount Kumgang to attract more South Korean tourists. The company has been in talks with North Korea to run cable cars on part of the mountain.

“It usually takes about one year or more to complete the construction of a cable car system. We launched the construction last year,” a company official said, suggesting that tourists could enjoy the service in 2007 or early 2008.

He said cable cars will run between the mountain’s top and the Sejonbong ridge, one of Mount Kumgang’s peaks. As the peak is located near the East Sea, tourists will enjoy scenic views of the mountain and sea simultaneously.

Hyundai Asan has set the goal of attracting 400,000 tourists, including South Koreans and foreigners, to Mount Kumgang this year, compared with 234,446 last year.

Its rosy outlook comes largely from the six-party agreement to dismantle North Korea’s nuclear programs in February. Hyundai Asan officials say the event will help normalize inter-Korean businesses.

“The landmark accord will enable our inter-Korean projects, including Mount Kumgang tours and the Kaesong Industrial Complex, to get revitalized,” the official said.

Along with the scheduled opening of tours to inner Mount Kumgang from May 27, Hyundai Asan has decided to hire more than 10 fresh employees.

As the number of tourists fell to fewer than 250,000 in 2006 from 301,822 in 2005 and 272,820 in 2004, the company had to conduct layoffs and cut monthly payments to some employees amid deteriorating profitability last year.

Now the company plans to restore the salary level and pay delayed bonuses in a bid to encourage workers.

The tour project accounts for about 70 percent of Hyundai Asan’s total sales. It has set a sales target of 300 billion won for 2007.

Hyundai is also poised to push ahead with a plan to begin tours to Kaesong, a North Korean historical city near the border that is home to the South Korean-invested industrial complex. It plans to hold working-level meetings with the North in order to hasten the start of the tours.

Yonhap
4/24/2007

The South Korean government said Tuesday that it plans to invite U.S. companies to an investor relations (IR) gathering at the Kaesong industrial complex in North Korea this year.

The event, planned for October, will permit American businessmen to see firsthand the growth of the industrial park that is being built with South Korean capital, the Ministry of Commerce, Industry and Energy said.

The complex is one of the crowning achievements of the June 2000 summit meeting between the leaders of South and North Korea.

More than 20 South Korean companies are making shoes, clothing, watches and mechanical parts in the industrial park just north of the 248-kilometer-long demilitarized zone separating the two Koreas.

“The IR trip is not directly related to the recently agreed-upon free trade pact between South Korea and the United States,” said Hong Suk-woo, deputy minister for trade and investment.

Washington said it does not consider Kaesong part of South Korea and cannot extend preferential treatment to products made there.

In addition to the IR trip, the official said plans are under way to arrange one or two TV programs to be aired with English captions to provide information to foreign businessmen.

“The government is also considering a 24-hour English-language radio broadcasting that can provide timely information to foreign living in South Korea,” Hong said. China, Japan and Germany have such radio programs.

He said the ministry and related agencies plan to set up joint project teams to aggressively target specific companies for investment in the country.

“Government ministries, 16 regional administrations and the Korea Trade-Investment Promotion Agency will form teams that will work as one to attract investments,” he said.

The deputy minister said the 16 regional governments plan to set up three foreign corporate investment teams each by the end of the month so they can begin contacting prospective partners. Particular attention will be paid to attract investment in hightech areas including chemicals, electronics, semiconductors and machinery.

He said without going into details that some foreign companies have expressed interest in investing in South Korea.

Hong said the government expects foreign direct investment to reach $11 billion by the year’s end, roughly the same as last year’s $11.2 billion.

Yonhap
4/16/2007

The U.N. World Food Program (WFP) has only been able to gather one-fifth of the amount of recovery aid it is seeking for North Korea, with less than a year left in the aid program, according to the agency’s tally on Sunday.

A resourcing update for North Korea dated Thursday showed the WFP received donations totaling just short of US$21 million, accounting for 20.53 percent of the aimed $102 million. The donations include $3.2 million carried over from previous operations.

Russia remained the biggest donor with $5 million, which is almost 5 percent of the total. Switzerland provided $2.57 million.

Germany donated $1.66 million. Other contributors include Cuba, Denmark, Ireland, Luxembourg, Italy and Poland.

Private donations totaled $8,474 as of Thursday.

The United Nations has contributed $2.3 million, or 2.25 percent of the total.

Called “protracted relief and recovery operation,” the project runs from April 1, 2006, to March 31, 2008.