North Korean Economy Watch

Hankyoreh (h/t Tim Beal)
9/13/2007

Deal would see such shipments cross the DMZ for the first time

For the first time in the more than 50 years since the Korean War, minerals produced jointly by the two Koreas will be sold in South Korea. The two countries will also start to work on developing new mine projects and will launch drilling as early as next month, Lee Han-ho, head of the Korea Resources Corp. (KORES) told the Hankyoreh in a recent exclusive interview.

Lee is one of the group of business leaders and government officials that will accompany President Roh Moo-hyun during the second-ever inter-Korean summit slated for Oct. 2-4.

“On September 5, I met with Chung Un-up, North Korean head of the Inter-Korean Economic Cooperation Association in Pyongyang, and signed a deal to sell black lead products that two Koreas jointly produced at a mine in Hwanghae Province,” Lee said. “We also agreed to work together in developing a limestone mine in Shinwon of the same province and start drilling for black lead in the Pungcheon region.”

So far, minerals produced in the North have been sold in South Korea through a third country, such as China. Every year, US$10 million to $100 million worth of originally North Korean-produced non-metals were shipped to the South. This new project will be the first time such materials produced by the two Koreas will directly cross the line that has divided the peninsula since the 1950-53 Korean War.

The cross-border shipments would also come at a time when China is working on joint ventures with the North to develop resources in the communist country. Experts see the first-ever joint production and shipment of minerals as providing a boost for inter-Korean cooperation in the resources field.

Lee was invited to the North by the Inter-Korean Economic Cooperation Association. The first shipment, amounting to 200 tons will be on the South Korean market earlier next month, with 800-1,000 tons of black lead to follow. Wonjin Co. will be responsible for the sale of the black lead, which will be used in making fire-resistant materials and carbonized steel. Eight hundred tons of black lead would be priced at around $150,000.

KORES opened a 50-50 joint venture with a North Korean firm in April last year, but its full-blown operation has been delayed until recently due to electricity shortages in the North.

Yonhap
Sohn Suk-joo
9/6/2007

Inter-Korean trade surged 36.1 percent in the first eight months of this year, compared with the same period of a year earlier, the Unification Ministry said Thursday.

The two-way trade volume increased to US$1.05 billion in the January-August period, up from $775.52 million in 2006, thanks to brisk trade of fishery items and light industry products made at a joint industrial complex in the North Korean border city of Kaesong.

The industrial complex is the crowning achievement of a landmark summit between the leaders of the two Koreas in 2000. South Korean businesses use cheap North Korean labor to produce goods in Kaesong where some 26 South Korean factories employ about 15,000 North Korean workers.

“Inter-Korean commercial trade increased 37.1 percent to $809.71 million, while non-commercial trade rose 32.8 percent to $245.41 million during the same time span,” the ministry said in a statement.

Yonhap
8/29/2007

The labor union of Hyundai Motor Co. decided to provide aid to North Korea to help a South Korean humanitarian group expand a corn-noodle plant in North Korea, union officials said Wednesday, despite the union’s steps to stage a possible strike next week.

The workers at Hyundai, South Korea’s largest automaker, are scheduled to vote Thursday on whether to launch a walkout over higher wages and better working conditions, almost an annual ritual for the 44,000-strong union.

In a statement, the union said it will provide the aid worth 500 million won (US$530,786), including noodle-processing machines, a minibus, a truck and a power generator, to the corn-noodle plant in the North Korean capital of Pyongyang.

The aid will be provided via the Seoul-based humanitarian group Movement for One Korea, an official at Hyundai’s union said by telephone from Ulsan, a port city on the nation’s southeast coast where Hyundai’s main plant is located.

“We decided to provide the aid to help North Korea recover from its food shortage and to implement the union’s corporate social responsibility,” said the official, refusing to give his name.

The timing and other details have yet to be decided, he said.

It is the first time that a union of a private company has decided to give aid to North Korea.

The North has had to rely on international humanitarian aid for the past decade, due to floods, drought and economic mismanagement.

Earlier in the day, conservative newspapers questioned the Hyundai union’s rationale, criticizing it for deciding to give aid to the North as the strike looms.

“It’s an inappropriate time for Hyundai Motor’s union to do this as public criticism is mounting over its 13th consecutive annual strike,” Bae Son-geun, a professor at Korea University, was quoted as saying by the daily Dong-a Ilbo.

Hyundai and its union have had 10 sessions of formal negotiations. The union is demanding an 8.9 percent increase in monthly basic salary, after rejecting the company’s offer of a 5.4 percent rise.

The strike vote will be held on Friday and the outcome is to be announced later in the day or early Saturday, union officials said.

So far this year, Hyundai workers staged a 13-day partial strike over a bonus dispute and a proposed free trade agreement with the United States which they argued could hurt the livelihoods of farmers and factory workers.

Hyundai’s union has held walkouts every year except 1994 since its foundation in 1987. In the past 20 years, the union has gone on strike for 313 days, costing the company 8.94 trillion won (US$9.53 billion) in total lost sales, according to the automaker.

Yonhap
8/26/2007

South Korea will likely lose 2.2 trillion won (US$ 2 billion) in its food loan to North Korea, because the price was set by international market standards, an opposition lawmaker said Sunday.

Since 2002, South Korea has loaned 2.1 million tons of rice worth 2.86 trillion won to North Korea to help alleviate chronic food shortages in the impoverished communist country.

The loan was offered at international prices at the time of the shipments, although 2.1 million tons of the shipment were homegrown products, whose domestic price is four times higher than international prices, said Rep. Hong Moon-pyo of the Grand National Party.

Citing data from unification and agriculture ministries, Hong said the total monetary value of the South Korean food loaned to North Korea during the period comes to 2.86 trillion won.

North Korea is required to pay back the loan at international market prices, which currently stand at US$380 on the average, the lawmaker said.

“According to the terms of the contract, South Korea will not be able to recover about 2.2 trillion won, so the difference should be offset by taxpayers’ money,” Hong said, adding that the government should unveil the exact amount of the loan and its conditions.

Yonhap
Sohn suk-joo
8/22/2007

North Korea’s most powerful organization is leading efforts to clean up damage from heavy floods and restore the country’s infrastructure, the North’s state media reported Wednesday.

The National Defense Commission (NDC), the highest decision-making body under the communist country’s constitution that was revised in 1997 to reflect its “songun” or military first policy, supervises relief operations involving military forces and equipment.

“We’ve achieved recovery and restoration by appealing to party, government and labor officials to go out to damaged areas under the guidance of the National Defense Commission,” Kim Kyong-san, a senior official of the Pyongyang Railway bureau, said in an interview with Radio Pyongyang.

According to North Korea watchers, North Korea’s cabinet has usually spearheaded flood relief efforts in the communist country in the past. The NDC’s involvement signifies the extent of the damage and is also meant to speed up restoration ahead of the summit between President Roh Moo-hyun and North Korean leader Kim Jong-il, who leads the commission, they said.

Meanwhile, North Korea is in the final stages of restoring the railway line in Pyongyang.

“The Pyongyang railway line is fundamental in connecting the country to the east and west. All workers have labored hard and are urged to do more at the final stage,” Kim Kyong-san said.

Devastating floods are believed to have destroyed a revised 14 percent of the North’s farmland, South Korean officials said. South Korea, other countries and international agencies are extending a helping hand to the North.

The number of dead and missing is estimated at more than 300, with the homeless numbering about 300,000. An estimated 46,580 homes of 88,400 families were destroyed or damaged, according to the North’s media.

This year, South Korea is providing 400,000 tons of rice to the North, while it plans to send 7.1 billion won (US$7.5 million) worth of relief goods to North Korea.

On Tuesday, Pyongyang requested more help from the South, and South Korea is considering what to offer in response to the North’s plea for construction materials and heavy equipment.

The severe flood damage caused the two Koreas to postpone their second-ever summit, originally scheduled to be held late this month, until early October. Their leaders are to meet Oct. 2-4 in Pyongyang.

According to North Korean officials, the expressway linking Pyongyang and Kaesong has been damaged by heavy flooding, interfering with transportation. Roh plans to travel to Pyongyang via the overland route, and South Korean officials expressed hope that the expressway will be restored before the summit takes place.

Institute for Far East Studies (IFES)
NK Brief No. 07-8-22-1

The Bank of Korea released a report on August 17 that details economic estimates on a variety of sectors in North Korea. Overall, North Korea’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) fell 1.1 percent during 2006, the first time since 1999 that the North has failed to increase its GDP. Inclement weather was one factor that played into a fall in agricultural production, and there also appears to have been little progress in the construction of public works in the country. Overall, North Korean GNI was 2.9 percent of that in the South, with per capita GNI at 1,108 USD, 6 percent of the 18,372 USD per capita GNI in South Korea.

The entire economy of the DPRK is approximately 1/35th that of the South, with the Gross National Income (GNI) a mere 1/17th the level seen in the ROK. This shows a growing divide between the two Koreas, as the comparisons in the previous year were 1/33rd and 1/16th, respectively. Due to the North Korean nuclear issues and other foreign relations problems faced during 2006, a worsening of diplomatic relations with other countries, energy shortages and other economic woes befell the North, putting the entire economy in a difficult situation.

The North showed a weakening of the agricultural and forestry industries, increasing production by a mere 2.4 percent, 2.6 percent down from 2005. Corn and other cereal production grew by 7 percent, but rice was down 6.4 percent, and bean production was down 6.6 percent from the year before, leaving overall grain output down 3.6 percent. On the other hand, shellfish and crustacean harvests grew by 1.5 percent, while timber and livestock harvests remained unchanged.

On the mining front, coal and other non-metal mined resources showed promising increases, but production of lead, zinc, and copper fell by 1.7 percent, compared to the 3.5 percent growth posted in the previous year. Despite promising increases in production of manufactured goods and growth in the chemical and heavy industries in 2005, last year North Korean production growth rates in these fields fell flat at a mere 0.4 percent, increasing production rates of fibers, clothing and shoes, but turning out less kitchenware and food-related products. Coal and fuel products looked favorable, but fabricated metals and machine parts, as well as nonferrous metal products grew at a rate of 1.1 percent, down from 5.4 percent.

Gas-fired electrical generation was up 17 percent, while hydroelectric power grew only 2.7 percent, falling from 4.4 percent in 2005. Other infrastructure projects were also on the decline, with only 49 km of road paved in 2006.

The number of foreign tourists declined, with visitors to Kumgang Mountain falling from 366,000 in 2005 to only 265,000 last year, adding to the 21.8 percent decline in the food and lodging sector, but the transportation and communication sector grew by 5.1 percent, leading to an overall gain of 1.1 percent in the service industry.

The gap in overseas trade between the two Koreas increased from 182-fold to 212-fold as North Korean foreign trade fell off 5.2 percent. Imports in the North were up 2.3%, although seafood imports were down 48.4 percent. The slack was made up by a 34.1 percent increase in the import of plastics, a 31.2 percent increase in imported chemical goods, and a 12.4 percent increase in imported machinery.

During 2006, inter-Korean exchanges grew 27.8 percent, reaching 13.5 billion USD. South Korean exports to the North grew 16 percent as Seoul increased rice and fertilizer aid, and exports to the Kaesong Industrial Complex grew. On the other hand, North-South cooperative projects grew 52.7 percent as South Korea increasingly imported North Korean zinc, sand, and other natural resources.

In order to give some perspective to the North Korean economic data, the Bank of Korea offered the following comparisons:

DPRK/ROK/Ratio
Population (thousand) 23,079/48.297/2.1
Economic Growth (2006) -1.1%/5.0%
Nominal GNI (100 million USD) 256/8,873/34.7
Per Capita GNI (USD) 1,108/18,372/16.6
Exports (100 million USD) 9.5/3,254.6/343.8
Imports (100 million USD) 20.5/3,93.8/151.0
Coal Production (10,000 tons) 2,468/280/0.11
Electrical Use (10,000 kW) 782/6,551/8.4
Electrical Production Capacity (100 mill. KW) 225/3,812/16.9
Petroleum Imports (10,000 bbl) 384/88,843/231.4
Cereal Production (10,000 tons) 448.3/530.0/1.2
Rice Production (10,000 tons) 189.4/468.0/2.5
Seafood Harvest (10,000 tons) 92.3/303.3/3.3
Iron Ore Mining (10,000 tons) 504.1/22.7/0.05
Nonferrous Metals Mining (10,000 tons) 8.6/187.7/21.8
Automobile Production (10,000) 0.44/384.0/872.8
Steel (10,000 tons) 118.1/4,843.3/41.0
Cement (10,000 tons) 615.5/4,920.9/8.0
Fertilizer (10,000 tons) 45.4/318.3/7.0
Chemical Products (10,000 tons) 2.9/145.7/50.2
Railways (km) 5,235/3,392/0.6
Roads (km) 25,544/102,061/4.0
Port Loading Capacity (10,000 tons) 3,700/69,213/18.7
Shipping Capacity (10,000 tons) 90.4/1,180.2/13.1

Daily NK
Kwon Jeong Hyun
8/21/2007

Escalating Rice Costs 1,900!!

As the month of August began, North Korea saw a sudden jump in its rice costs. While 1kg of rice reached a peak of 1,960won (around US$6.03) in Shinuiju, entering the second week of August, prices seemed to have stabilized around the 1,500won marker.

Due to the damages incurred from the recent flooding in North Korea, the cost of rice was something expected. In the second week of August, the DailyNK reported on the flood situation and the consequent price fluctuations. The following report will indicate the damages from the flood and food situation as well as the course of rice costs.

We discovered from a telephone conversation with Ahn Geum Soon (pseudyonm, 37) on the 10th, a trader who sells clothes in Shinuiju, North Pyongan that the cost of rice had suddenly escalated to 1,900won per kilo dropping back to 1,500won within a 10 day period.

Ahn said, “Even people who trade secretly in private or at Jangmadang (markets) are finding it hard to obtain rice as there simply isn’t enough going around” and informed, “There are some people who are already stocking up on rice as rumors suggest that the costs will go up a little more. These people are the ones to raise the prices.”

Regarding the cause in escalating rice costs, Ahn said, “I’m not sure. According to rumors, people with money are the ones hoarding the rice, but no one is really sure of the reason.”

“Some people are going through tough times with the sudden rise in rice costs but no one is dying of starvation. People who can’t afford rice eat corn. Even if the cost of corn rises, its only 500won” said Ahn and added, “Nonetheless, there are the occasional beggars living in the country and the city who die of hunger, but this is no different to the past.”

Kim Il Yong (pseudonym, 36) who lives in Taecheon, North Pyongan informed a reporter on the 11th, “Currently, the cost of rice is about 1,500won per kilo. There was a great difference in prices within a period of 10 days.”

Kim responded, “Some say that the costs are rising as South Korea and other foreign countries are not supporting us with rice, while others say that that prices are rising as there is not enough rice going around. I’m not sure what is going on.”

He continued, “There are rumors that rice prices will reach 2,000won. Nevertheless, there won’t be any cases where people die of hunger. Like we will reach that stage when potatoes have been picked and are being sold at Jangmadang and the corn harvest has begun.”

Kim who has relatives living in the Hamheung said in response to the claim by a South Korean support organization that 300 people have died of starvation, “Hamheung is comparatively a large city. Rumors would quickly spread if people were dying of starvation. 300 people can’t be dying of starvation.” He said, “My sister in-laws younger brother went to Hamheung 3 days ago. He said he hadn’t heard of any rumors of people dying of hunger.”

Another source in North Korea said in a conversation with a reporter on the 11th, “Up to a month ago, rice cost 850won per kilo” and commented, “There are a lot of coal mines at Dukcheon. It is known as a region where you can make money. Rations are distributed by the employer to the people who work at the mines and so it’s not so hard for them.”

Then he added, “It was a little tough in June as the employers stopped distributing rations for a while.”

Yonhap
8/17/2007

South Korea is to send 7.1 billion won ($7.5 million) worth of emergency aid to North Korea next week as part of efforts to help the communist country recover from the damage wreaked by recent heavy rains, the South’s point man on the North said Friday.

“We will prepare to send emergency aid to North Korea early next week,” Unification Minister Lee Jae-joung said in a press briefing, noting that the aid will consist of instant noodles, bottled water, powdered milk, blankets and medicine.

Lee said that South Korea will also discuss ways of sending equipment and additional aid needed to overcome the damage in the North after transporting the emergency aid via inter-Korean sea and land routes.

International aid agencies are also trying to help the North to cope with floods that have swept away a large part of its farmland, raising the specter of worsening food shortages.

North Korea allowed the United Nations World Food Program (WFP) to send four assessment teams Friday to areas struck by the flash floods.

On Thursday, the North’s state media said that about 46,580 homes had been flooded or destroyed, while more than 300,000 people were displaced. North Korean officials told international aid agencies that at least 200 people were dead or missing.

WFP officials will travel Friday to 10 hard-hit counties to assess the situation, hoping to start emergency food aid using supplies already in the country as part of ongoing hunger relief efforts.

South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun is to meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong-il on Aug. 28-30 in Pyongyang, the first summit in seven years. The floods are not likely to have an impact on the summit, South Korean officials said.

Korea Times
Na Jeong-ju
8/16/2007

North Korea’s economy posted negative growth in 2006 for the first time in eight years on decreased production of agricultural and fisheries goods, the Bank of Korea (BOK) said Thursday.

In its estimate for the North’s economic growth, the central bank said the North’s real gross domestic product (GDP) shrank 1.1 percent in 2006 from a year ago, a turnaround from a 3.8 percent expansion in 2005. Until 2006, the North’s GDP had grown for seven years in a row since a 6.2 percent rise in 1999.

The GDP is the total output of goods and services produced within a country.

“Due to bad weather, North Korea’s agricultural, forestry and fisheries production fell with the construction industry remaining sluggish,” the BOK said. “North Korea seems to have suffered a blow as its international relations deteriorated due to its nuclear issues on top of a shortage of energy.”

The economic gap between the two Koreas grew larger last year.

North Korea’s nominal GDP increased 5.8 percent from a year ago to $25.6 billion last year, while South Korea’s GDP rose to $887.3 billion. South Korea’s GDP is 34.7 times larger than that of North Korea, widening from a 32.6-fold difference in 2005.

North Korea’s per-capita gross national income (GNI) came to $1,108 last year, up from $1,056 a year earlier, while South Korea’s per-capita GNI of $18,372 was 16.6 times bigger than that of the North, expanding from a 15.5 fold-difference. The North’s population reached 23.1 million, while the South’s was 48.3 million.

North Korea’s trade remained unchanged year-on-year at $3 billion last year, compared with South Korea’s $634.9 billion. The South’s trade was 212 times bigger than the North’s last year, rising from a 182-fold difference in 2005.

Pyongyang saw its exports dip 5.2 percent year-on-year to $950 million in 2006 as outbound shipments of animal products, non-metal goods and machinery decreased, while imports gained 2.3 percent to $2.1 billion.

Inter-Korean trade increased 27.8 percent from a year earlier to $1.4 billion. South Korea’s shipments to North Korea advanced 16 percent to $830.2 million, mainly on increased rice and fertilizer aid.

Inbound shipments from the North jumped 52.7 percent to $519.5 million on a hike in inter-Korean projects and mineral imports, the BOK said.

North Korea’s agricultural, forestry and fisheries industry declined 2.6 percent year-on-year last year, a turnaround from a 5 percent gain in 2005. The construction industry dipped 11.5 percent after gaining 6.1 percent the previous year.

The mining sector growth decelerated to 1.9 percent from 3.5 percent. Its manufacturing sector expansion slowed to 0.4 percent from 4.9 percent. The services industry grew 1.1 percent last year after increasing 1.3 percent in 2005, the central bank said.

North Korean economy posted 2006 downturn
Joong Ang Daily
Jung Ha-won
8/17/2007

North Korea’s economy shrank for the first time in eight years last year as agricultural production declined due to natural disasters and sluggish infrastructure development, according to estimates by South Korea’s central bank.

The Bank of Korea said yesterday that it believes North Korea’s 2006 gross domestic product declined 1.1 percent from a year earlier, the first downturn since 1999. The BOK, since 1991, has estimated the figures based on data from South Korean intelligence agencies and other research institutes. North Korea does not release economic data.

According to the estimate released yesterday, North Korea’s agriculture and marine industries last year declined 2.6 percent from 2005, when production rose by 5 percent.

“North Korea suffered from a serious flood last year, in stark contrast to 2005 when there was no major flood and farm production was good,” said a BOK official who refused to be named.

Growth in mining production, one of North Korea’s major industries, slowed to 1.9 percent from 3.5 percent in 2005. Manufacturing inched up 0.4 percent, down from 4.9 percent growth in 2005.

Construction sector production showed the biggest downturn at 11.5 percent from a year earlier, compared to 6.1 percent growth in 2005, as road and railway construction slowed, the central bank said.

Using satellite data, the bank estimated North Korea built just 49 kilometers (30.4 miles) of new roads last year, a sharp decline from 310 kilometers built in 2005.

Korea Times
8/15/2007

To understand what is at stake, we need to look back at key events in the past that led to North Korea’s isolation in the global economy.

U.S. economic sanctions against North Korea began on June 28, 1950, only three days after North Korea invaded South Korea, when the United States invoked a total embargo on exports to North Korea. Over the years, many more U.S. sanctions have been imposed against North Korea, and North Korean companies. Three of these sanctions have had a significant impact.

The first was the suspension of the Most Favored Nation (MFN) trade status, imposed on September 1, 1951. This sanction, which is still in effect, made it impossible for North Korea to even consider exporting its products to the United States.

The second is the placement of North Korea on the list of countries that support international terrorism. This sanction, imposed on January 20, 1988, followed North Korea’s blowing up of Korea Air Lines 858 on November 29, 1987, off the waters of Thailand.

This sanction has entailed many restrictions, including denial of North Korea’s ability to borrow money from international financial institutions.

The third measure is not a single action, but has taken the form of a tightening grip around the financial network used to fund North Korea’s illicit financial activities.

Although the ultimate target is North Korea, the threat of actual sanctions has been targeted against banks, including Banco Delta Asia, which deal with North Korea’s accounts. These financial sanctions involving Banco Delta Asia have been the focus of recent overt and covert negotiations between North Korea and the United States.

On September 17, 1999, President Clinton agreed to the first significant easing of economic sanctions against North Korea since the Korean War ended in 1953.

The U.S. easing of sanctions against North Korea, announced on June 19, 2000, may have been too little to persuade the leaders of North Korea to give up their prized long-range missile technology. North Korea carried out a nuclear test on October 9, 2006, and the United Nations passed Resolution 1718, further tightening North Korean economy.

There is no doubt that all these sanctions are having an impact on the North Korean economy. For instance, the North Korea’s annual trade deficit has averaged between $800 million and $1 billion in recent years, depending on whether deficits against South Korea are included.

The huge trade deficit is not sustainable, and it will eventually lead to a decrease in North Korea’s trade and gross domestic product. Studies indicate that the entire trade deficit appears to have been financed by weapons sales, illicit activities, and funds flowing from South Korea through joint projects. With the two UN resolutions adopted during 2006 and the tightening of North Korea’s financial transactions that began in 2005, North Korea should find it increasingly more difficult to pay for its trade deficit.

The key issue is not whether North Korea deserves the lifting of all the sanctions imposed against the country on the basis of its behavior since 1950, but how to bring about a peaceful resolution of pending security and humanitarian issues without military confrontation. This brings us to the importance of the upcoming summit between President Roh and North Korean leader Kim.

My assessment is that the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1989 led to an important change in the approach of North Korean leaders toward a better calculation of costs and benefits.