North Korean Economy Watch

According to the AFP:

North Korea’s economy is expected to continue shrinking this year after South Korea cut off most trade in protest at the sinking of a warship, a report said Tuesday.

“The North is very likely to see its economy shrink this year,” said the report from South Korea’s state-run Korea Development Institute (KDI), without estimating a figure.

“Our outlook is based on a forecast that its external trade will likely post a setback.”

The communist state’s economy contracted 0.9 percent in 2009, according to an earlier report from the South’s central bank.

The South in May announced a ban on most trade after a multinational investigation concluded that a North Korean torpedo sank the warship in March with the loss of 46 lives.

The KDI said at the time the ban would cost the impoverished North hundreds of millions of dollars a year, noting that Pyongyang posted a 333 million dollar trade surplus with its neighbour last year.

The South’s central bank says the North’s economy shrank 1.1 percent in 2006 and contracted by 2.3 percent in 2007, but grew 3.1 percent in 2008 until contracting again last year.

A further shrinkage this year could spark an economic crisis, Tuesday’s report said.

“North Korea’s economy could be hurled into a very precarious situation,” it said.

“As experienced by the nation in the mid-1990s, a crisis could more likely be prompted by consecutive contractions for a relatively long period of time, rather than a one-off steep economic downturn.”

The North’s economy fell deep into trouble in the 1990s after the break-up of the Soviet Union and the loss of its crucial aid.

The country suffered famine in the 1990s which killed hundreds of thousands and it still grapples with severe food shortages.

Since 2005 the regime has been reasserting its grip on the economy, with controls or outright bans on private markets.

A currency revaluation last November, designed to flush out entrepreneurs’ savings, backfired disastrously. It fuelled food shortages as market trading dried up and sparked rare outbreaks of unrest.

The North was forced to suspend its campaign against free markets.

The United Nations in June last year tightened sanctions following the North’s missile launches and nuclear test earlier in the year.

Read the full story here:
N.Korea economy to shrink on trade cutoff: report
AFP
7/5/2010

According to Yonhap:

Trade between North Korea and China in the January-May period increased 18 percent compared to last year, a sign that Pyongyang continues to expand economic ties with Beijing amid soured relations with Seoul, figures showed Tuesday.

North Korea imported US$727.2 million worth of goods from China and exported $256.4 million in the five-month period this year, according to figures recently released by Chinese customs authorities and obtained by Yonhap News Agency.

Read the full story here:
Trade between N. Korea, China rises, signaling closer economic ties
Yonhap
Sam Kim
7/6/2010

According to the Daily NK:

The gap between the rich and poor in North Korea is growing as the number of people trying to sell their family home to buy food expands in the aftermath of last November’s currency reforms, according to a source from inside the country.

The source from South Pyongan Province told The Daily NK on Thursday, “An increasing number of homes are being sold to buy food, and now it seems like about two out of every ten people around here have lost their home.”

According to the source, the rich buy up the houses, demolish them and build new ones to sell for a profit. Those who have amassed dollars or Chinese Yuan from trading are now turning to the housing market.

Even in Pyongyang, where the public distribution system continues to function, there are homeless people on the street, according to the source, who added, “When I was in Pyongyang, there were homeless people sleeping in the subway in large numbers.”

The source went on, “People’s lives are very difficult. There are even some who rely on digging up 5kg of wormwood, walking three hours to sell it, and only getting 100 won per kg.”

Currently, 1kg of rice sells for 400 to 500 won in Pyongyang, and 500 to 600 won in other areas.

The source also explained, “While public distribution still functions in Pyongyang, there are strict restrictions on movement, and even with our salaries we can’t buy food because there is too little.”

Since the economy is so bad, the crime rate is also going up, he added, “There are now more and more pick pocketing cases, and these days, they not only use small knives to steal purses, but even tweezers to pick stuff from pockets.”

The source’s assertion that there was public distribution until mid-June contradicts the claim of one NGO, which said that on May 26 the authorities ordered each area to look out for its own food supply. The source, when asked about the decree, said he was unaware of its existence.

Read the full story here:
Life Even Tough in Pyongyang
Daily NK
Kim So Yeol
7/2/2010

According ot the Daily NK:

South Korea has granted permission for an aid shipment of anti-malarial medication, the seventh shipment of aid to North Korea since the Cheonan sinking.

An Ministry of Unification said today, “We have decided to allow a shipment of anti-malarial medication worth $335,000, which was requested by the Korean Sharing Movement.”

Korean Sharing Movement is a well-known aid organization targetting North Korea.

The Korean Sharing Movement says it plans to send malaria diagnosis kits, mosquito nets and vaccines for pregnant women among other things to Jangpung, Geumcheon, Tosan and Kaesong, which are areas of North Korea adjacent to Gyeonggi Province, the province which surrounds Seoul.

Funding for the project has been provided by the government of Gyeonggi Province.

Most previous, post-Cheonan shipments have been aid for infants and children. Earlier this month, two aid consignments of infant-related aid were sent.

The Unification Ministry in Seoul, upon granting permission for the previous shipments, explained, “While South Korea will hold off on inter-Korean business projects on principle, we will continue providing purely humanitarian aid for the weak, such as infants and children.”

Including today’s shipment, the total cost of aid sent since punitive measures against North Korea were announced on May 24 has been approximately $603,000.

The current shipment of anti-malarial medication is being sent, the Ministry of Unification explained today, because malaria has the potential to spread into South Korea during the summer months.

Read the full story here:
Rok to send malaria medication to DPRK
Daily NK
Chris Green
6/24/2010

According to Yonhap:

The widening inter-Korean economic and social gaps could eventually increase the cost of unification, a report showed Friday, highlighting the importance of the private sector’s role in “limiting the gap.”

According to the report compiled by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, South Korea’s economy is about 38 times larger than the North’s and 18 times larger on a per-capita basis as of the end of 2008.

North Korea’s total trade volume remains just 0.4 percent of South Korea’s, while production of electricity and steel stands at a mere 6 percent and 2.4 percent, respectively, the report showed.

The report also noted that the North Korean economy grew 3.7 percent in 2008 following two years of contraction but its currency reform in late 2009 triggered “serious economic problems,” pointing to a tough road for the reclusive country’s future growth.

The North is also showing a marked gap with the South not just in the economic field but also in social and welfare areas such as high infant mortality rates and relatively short life expectancy, according to the report.

“The large gap in income and health will boost the eventual cost of economic integration,” said the report.

“The expansion of trade driven by private sector firms in the South, in line with the government’s strategy of limiting cooperation to projects that are economically viable and that do not overburden taxpayers in the South, provides the best hope for limiting the gap,” it added.

The report comes as inter-Korean trade and investment except for an industrial park in the border town of Kaesong was suspended after a multinational investigation recently proved that the North torpedoed one of South Korea’s patrol ships in March, killing 46 sailors.

The two Koreas are still technically at war as no peace treaty was signed at the end of the 1950-53 Korean War.

Of course, Yonhap does not bother to tell us the name of the study or provide a link!

I think I found it however. I am 99% confident that Yonhap is citing the OECD Economic Surveys: Korea 2010.

The reason I was able to locate the report was because one of the quotes Yonhap provided above was used word-for-word in the OECD Economic Surveys: Korea 2008. Check out the last sentence of paragraph 2 on page 54.

Download the report here.

According to the Daily NK:

The U.S. Department of State released its 10th “Trafficking in Persons Report (TIP)” yesterday, once again classifying North Korea as “Tier 3,” meaning it is a country whose government does not “fully comply with the minimum standards” and is “not making significant efforts to do so.” The North joins Cuba, Kuwait, Sudan, Zimbabwe and another eight countries in Tier 3, the lowest on the list.

North Korea has been in Tier 3 since 2003, when it first appeared on the TIP.

The TIP recommends that Pyongyang move to “improve the poor economic, social, political, and human rights conditions in North Korea that render North Koreans highly vulnerable to trafficking; recognize human trafficking as a problem in North Korea; cease the systematic punishment of trafficking victims in forced labor camps and others.”

However, the report defines North Korea as a place which has made “little, if any, efforts to combat trafficking in persons through law enforcement efforts over the last year, and continued to severely restrict the movement of its citizens internally and across its borders.” It also adds, “The North Korean government continues to deny the existence of trafficking as a problem. Little information is available on North Korea’s internal legal system.”

The report explains that the most common form of trafficking involves North Korean women and girls who are forced into marriage or prostitution in China. Another form is the forced labor which is a key part of the North Korean system of political repression. As an example, the report mentions “labor mobilization campaign such as the ‘150-Day Battle’ and ‘100-Day Battle’ in 2009.”

North Korea’s notorious prison camps also come up in the report, which says, “An estimated 150,000 to 200,000 persons are held in detention camps in remote areas of the country; many of these prisoners were not duly convicted of a criminal offense. In prison camps, all prisoners, including children, are subject to forced labor, including logging, mining, and farming for long hours under harsh conditions.”

Meanwhile, the TIP also designates China as a country on the State Department’s “Tier 2 Watch List”, just one level above North Korea, and recommends that it “cease the practice of forcibly repatriating North Korean trafficking victims,” pointing out that repatriated North Koreans face harsh punishment upon their return.

Read the full sotry here:
North Koreans Vulnerable to Human Trafficking
Daily NK
Choi Yong Sang
6/15/2010

According to Yonhap:

South Korea has approved four shipments of humanitarian assistance to North Korea, a government official said Tuesday, upholding its policy of supporting those in need of such aid despite the sinking of a warship blamed on Pyongyang.

The aid, worth slightly over 300 million won (US$245,000), comes after South Korea approved two shipments of infant food to North Korea on June 8. North Korea is one of the poorest countries in the world, and its children suffer from chronic malnutrition.

“The latest shipments will be delivered to a nursery, a tuberculosis clinic, a maternity hospital and a kindergarten” in four different North Korean areas, Unification Ministry spokesman Chun Hae-sung told reporters.

Wouldn’t it have been nice if he told us the names of the facilities and cities where the aid was going? Or if someone from the press asked him?

Read the full story here:
S. Korea approves additional shipments of humanitarian aid to N. Korea
Yonhap
Sam Kim
6/15/2010

According to Joong Ang Daily:

South Korean goods and services going in or out of North Korea will now have to be approved by the unification minister, according to the ministry yesterday. Trade with the Kaesong Industrial Complex will be the only exception to the rule, which takes effect Monday, the ministry said.

This is a follow-up to South Korea’s decision on May 24 to halt all inter-Korean trade, except that at Kaesong, as punishment for the sinking of the South Korean corvette Cheonan in March, which the South has blamed on the North.

“To effectively implement the government’s decision to halt inter-Korean trade, we revised the rules regarding the approval processes regarding goods and services crossing the inter-Korean border,” said Chun Hae-sung, spokesman for the ministry, in a media briefing.

Until yesterday, items traded with North Korea didn’t need to be individually approved. The report by the Korea Development Institute said the suspension of trade will cost North Korea about $280 million annually.

Read the full article here:
Ministry further restricts trade with North Korea
Joong Ang Daily
6/12/2010

According to AFP:

The unification ministry, which must authorise all cross-border exchanges, said the shipments from private groups of milk and other items totalling 320,000 dollars would be sent late this month.

The South cut off most trade with the North after accusing its neighbour of firing a torpedo to sink the ship in March with the loss of 46 lives. It exempted humanitarian aid.

The impoverished North suffers severe food shortages. The UN Children’s Fund says one in three of its children is stunted by malnutrition.

And according to KBS:

The Unification Ministry is prohibiting South Koreans from going to North Korea to celebrate the tenth anniversary of the signing of the June 15th Joint Declaration.

The ministry recently rejected a South Korean group’s request to travel to the North to attend the ceremony marking the signing in Pyongyang.

The ministry said it could now allow the trip due to heightened inter-Korean tensions over the sinking of the Cheonan.

Representatives from South and North Korea and overseas Korean communities had planned to hold a joint ceremony in Pyongyang after holding working-level contacts in the North Korean border city of Gaeseong in May. 

Read the full stories here:
S.Korea to ship aid to North despite tensions
AFP
6/9/2010

S.Koreans Banned From Attending 6.15 Event in NK
KBS
6/9/2010

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
NK Brief No. 10-06-07-1
6/7/2010

In 2009, North Korea’s foreign trade (not including inter-Korean trade) amounted to 3.41 billion dollars, 10.5 percent less than 2008, which saw the largest amount of DPRK overseas commerce since 1991. Exports were down 5.97 percent (1.06 billion USD), while imports were down 12.45 percent (2.35 billion USD), recording a 1.29 billion USD trade deficit.

These figures come from a KOTRA analysis of the Korea Business Center (KBC)’s statistics of trade with North Korea by foreign countries. Because North Korea does not reveal trade statistics, this ‘mirror analysis’ method of analyzing the statistics of its trading partners is the only method available.

Looking at each country’s trade figures individually reveals that China is the North’s largest trade partner. DPRK-PRC trade amounted to 2.68 billion USD last year, 78.5 percent of all the North’s foreign trade. The North exported 790 million USD worth of goods to China, while its imports from China amounted to 1.89 billion USD. As North Korea’s trade with China continues to grow relative to that with other countries, so too, does its economic dependence on Beijing. In 2003, DPRK-PRC trade amounted to 42.8 percent of its overall foreign trade. This grew to 48.5 percent in 2004, accounted for more than half (52.6 percent) in2005, hit 56.7 percent in 2006, 67.1 percent in 2007, and 73 percent in 2008.

North Korea’s main imports from China were crude oil and petroleum (330 million USD, down 44.2 percent from 2008), boiler and machinery parts (160 million USD, up 10 percent), and electrical components (130 million USD, up 31 percent). Top exports to China included coal (260 million USD, up 26 percent), minerals (140 million USD, down 34.1 percent), and textiles (90 million USD, up 20.7 percent).

Germany, Russia, India, and Singapore were the North’s 2nd thru 5th largest trade partners. Trade with Germany was up 33.7 percent, amounting to 70 million USD, while trade with Russia, India, and Singapore dropped off. After these countries, Hong Kong, Brazil, Thailand, Bangladesh, and the Netherlands made up the rest of the top 10 trade partners, which account for 92 percent of all the North’s overseas trade.

In addition, with continuing sanctions against the North by the United States and Japan, there were no exports to these countries, and imports from these countries amounted to a mere 2.7 million USD and 900,000 USD, respectively.

Inter-Korean trade for 2009 amounted to 1.68 billion USD. This was down 7.8 percent from the previous year. North Korean imports from the South were down 16.1 percent, recording 740 million USD. This was largely impacted by the closing of the Keumgang Mountain tourism project.

Combined, North Korea’s total foreign trade was down 9.7 percent, to 5.09 billion USD. 53 percent of this was with China, while 33 percent was with South Korea.

Continued international sanctions against the North and the possibility of additional unilateral sanctions from several countries means DPRK foreign trade will likely shrink more in 2010. It is also expected that the North’s economic dependency on China will continue to grow.