North Korean Economy Watch

According to the Daily NK:

The North Korean authorities have ordered the formation of ‘Day of the Sun Gift Preparation Committees’ at the provincial Party level and subordinate ‘Day of the Sun Gift Subcommittees’ at the city and county scale, Daily NK has learned.

A Yangkang [Ryanggang] Province source who spoke with Daily NK on the 6th explained, “The ‘Day of the Sun Gift Preparation Committee’ was formed at the start of this month by the provincial Party Committee to prepare for the Suryeong’s birthday, and groups of areas were banded together to form the ‘Day of the Sun Gift Subcommittees’.”

“There was no distribution for February 16th,” the source recalled. “Possibly because the central Party received reports of popular discontent about this and asked some searching questions of provincial cadres, now they are running around trying to get ready for April 15th holiday distribution.”

“Enterprise traders are mostly bringing in soy bean oil, soap and towels via Chinese customs. They are printing ‘Day of the Sun 100th Anniversary’ on the towels,” he added.

The formation of the committees has also reportedly had a noticeable influence on levels of public expectation of the April 15th festivities, representing as it does the first time that ‘Gift Preparation Committees’ have been formed since they disappeared without a trace in the mid 1990s.

“They are already saying that each household is going to receive a huge gift for this Day of the Sun, so people are really expecting a lot,” the source said, adding, “The rumor among jangmadang traders is that every house is going to get a DVD player made by Hana Electronics in Pyongyang.”

As the source noted, the move comes following significant public discontent at the lack of gifts on February 16th (Kim Jong Il’s birthday).

On February 21st, Daily NK reported new of that discontent, citing a Yangkang Province source as saying, “There was a flood of criticism about the total lack of holiday distribution for Gwangmyungsung Day, so they began telling every organ, enterprise and people’s unit meeting, ‘That is because we are close to the 100th anniversary of the Suryeong’s birth, and the Party is preparing big gifts for that.’”

North Korea began giving snacks, rice and other foodstuffs to the people every year on the birthdays of Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il, along with things like school uniforms and blankets every 5th and 10th year, in the 1970s. However, the system ceased to function in the 1990s as the country was gripped by famine and economic disintegration.

Meanwhile, sources also report that with the arrival of the early spring lean season, a time when many people on the Korean Peninsula have traditionally struggled to find sufficient sustenance, prices in the market are beginning to creep up.

According to the Yangkang Province source, “Until late last week the Yuan price was 607 won, but now it is up to 635 won. The price of rice has also gone from 3,300 won to 3,800 won.”

Read the full story here:
North Forms Party 4.15 ‘Gift Preparation Committees’
Daily NK
Lee Seok Young
2012-3-5

According to Yonhap:

North Korea’s trade volume with China jumped nearly 20 percent in January, compared to the same period last year [January 2011], a report said Friday, indicating sustained bilateral economic relations.

Citing data released by China’s Ministry of Commerce, U.S. broadcaster Voice of America said trade between China and North Korea reached US$418 million in the cited month, up 18 percent from a year ago.

The North’s January exports to China reached $139 million, an on-year increase of 7 percent, while imports expanded 24 percent to $278 million, according to the report.

Coal was the North’s biggest export item for the Chinese market, totaling $70 million, it added.

Here is a link to the original VOA article.  Hat tip to a friend.

Read the full story here:
N. Korea-China trade jumps 18 pct in Jan.: report
Yonhap
2012-3-2

UPDATE 2: Here is a translation of part of the paper:

2011 North Korea GDP per Capita 720 dollars

HRI Speculation Model of North Korea GDP: Hyndai Research Institute developed ‘HRI North Korea GDP Speculation Model’ to speculate North Korea’s GDP per Capita using the ‘Child Mortality Rate Report’ of 2011 August. In order to enhance the explicability of the original ‘HRI North Korea GDP Speculation Model’, in this report, the model has been modified adding annual agricultural production rate into consideration.

Speculating 2011 North Korea‘s GDP per Capita: According to the calculations of the modified ‘HRI North Korea GDP speculation model’, North Korea’s GDP per capita of 2011 was 720 dollars, 32 dollars increased from the previous year’s 688 dollars. North Korea’s GDP per capita is less than 3% that of South Korea which is $23,749. Even compared to other Communist nations such as China($5,194), Laos($1,204), Vietnam(1,362), North Korea’s economy is significantly deficient. Nations holding similar average income with North Korea is Bangladesh($690) and Nepal($644) of Asia, and Zimbabwe($735) of Africa.

Background on 2011 North Korean Economy’s growth

Domestic background: North Korean Economy is analyzed to have experienced a concentrated growth due to government’s planning and showering of its resources. According to FAO(Food and Agriculture Organization), North Korea’s agricultural production total has increased 7.2% from 4420 thousand tons in 2011 to 4740 thousand tons in 2012. Also, North Korean government focused their resources on food preservation, building 100 thousand households, and resolving electricity problem.

International Background: Internationally, DPRK-China trade expansion, Gawesung Factory, International Society’s aids were the three main backgrounds. DPRK-China trade total experienced a steep increase of 62.4% from 34.7 billion dollars in 2010 to 56.3 billion dollars in 2011. Gawesung Factory’s trade was 17 billon dollars which is a 17.7 % increase from 2010’s 14.4 billion dollars. International Society’s aid towards DPRK spiked the highest of 9, 7710 thousand dollars since 2007, which is more than three times that of 2, 1780 dollars from the pervious year.

UPDATE 1 (2012-3-13): Marcus Noland weighs in on the report’s findings here.

ORIGINAL POST (2012-2-26): According to Yonhap:

North Korea’s per-capita gross domestic product probably expanded more than 4 percent in 2011 from a year earlier on an improved grain harvest and intensified state efforts, a report said Sunday.

The North’s per-capita GDP for last year is estimated at US$720, up 4.7 percent from $688 a year earlier, Hyundai Research Institute said in the report based on the communist country’s infant mortality rate and grain production.

The North’s 2011 per-capita GDP amounts to a mere 3 percent of that for archrival South Korea.

“The increase stemmed from better grain crops,” the think tank said. “Pyongyang also stepped up its efforts to meet its goal of building a strong and prosperous nation in 2012.”

According to data by the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization, North Korea’s grain production reached 4.74 million tons last year, up 7.2 percent from a year earlier.

Other positive factors were North Korea’s expanded trade with China, its staunchest ally and largest benefactor, the existence of an inter-Korean industrial complex in the border city of Kaesong and aid from the international community, according to the report.

Pyongyang’s trade with China surged 62.4 percent on-year to $5.63 billion last year, the report said.

I have been unable to locate an original copy of this report.  If you have a copy please send it to me.

Read the full story here:
N. Korea’s per-capita GDP grows 4.7 pct in 2011: report
Yonhap
2012-2-26

According to the Donga Ilbo:

The South Korean government will allow companies operating in the Kaesong industrial complex in North Korea to bring new facilities or build plants there. Against this background, regulations banning new investment in the complex under a sanction against North Korea, which made May 24 last year, will be massively eased.

Park Soo-jin, vice spokeswoman of the Unification Ministry in Seoul, said Wednesday, “We will ease sanctions on North Korea imposed May 24 last year to support the operations of plants operating (in the Kaesong complex), including allowing the entry of necessary facilities and construction of warehouses.” “We will also actively examine working-level talks with Pyongyang to resolve the issue of supply of North Korean workers. We are willing to negotiate with the North on building dormitories and tackling passage, customs and telecommunications matters and personal safety.” The ministry is also mulling putting artificial grass on a soccer field within the complex to improve living conditions of South Korean staff.

The latest decision is a follow-up measure after members of the special parliamentary committee for inter-Korean relations development and the National Assembly`s Foreign Affairs, Trade and Unification Committee visited the Kaesong complex Friday and urged the resolution of difficulties facing companies operating there. Having offered Tuesday working-level talks to Pyongyang for family reunions, Seoul apparently hopes to expand amicable relations through this deregulation.

The Unification Ministry said last year`s sanctions will remain in force since expansion of large-scale investments will still be banned, including new corporate advances into the complex and plant construction. The latest measure, however, is still a big step forward because until now, Seoul had approved just facility entry into the complex for repair purposes, while going forward, additional facilities could be allowed for production activities. Plant construction was initially allowed for seven companies, which had been suspended due to last year’s sanctions.

Certain projects are already in place, including the construction of fire stations and emergency medical facilities, as well as repair of roads for commuting by North Korean workers. The South Korean ban on visiting North Korea excluding the Kaesong complex and Mount Kumgang area, which was effected last year, was also eased following approval of trips to North Korea for social and cultural exchanges, including the recovery of Kaesong Manwol pavilion.

Read the full story here:
Seoul to partially lift restrictions on biz complex in N. Korea
Donga Ilbo
2012-2-16

According to the BBC:

But the UN Conference on Trade and Development estimates that foreign direct investment in 2010 was $38m (£24m; 29m euros) and that the total amount invested in North Korea over the past few decades comes to $1.475bn (£940m; 1.13bn euros).

Most of that comes from China.

…

China doesn’t publish details of its economic relationship with North Korea, but the Bank of Korea estimates trade between the two Communist nations has been steadily rising, and reached $3.5bn (£2.2bn / 2.7bn euros) in 2010.

South Korea, meanwhile, has set up the Gaesong Industrial Complex with its northern neighbour, which now employs 50,000 people and contributed heavily to $1.7bn (£1.1bn / 1.3bn euros) of trade between the two Koreas last year.

Read the full story here:
Made in North Korea: Business in a ‘communist monarchy’
BBC
Lucy Williamson
2012-2-15

According to UPI:

U.S. relief efforts targeting North Korea jumped about 500 percent in 2011, trade export figures from the Commerce Department show.

The department said the United States shipped $9.4 million worth of goods to North Korea in 2011, up from about $1.9 million the previous year and $0.9 million in 2009. In 2008, the United States sent about $52.2 million in goods to the communist country.

South Korea’s Yonhap News Agency said Radio Free Asia reported 95 percent of the 2011 total was some form of aid for North Koreans, such food or basic household items, sent by private organizations.

Read the full story here:
U.S. shipments to N. Korea grew in 2011
UPI
2012-2-11

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
2012-2-8

As of January 2012, the Kaesong Industrial Complex (KIC) employs over 50,000 North Korean workers.

South Korea’s Ministry of Unification (MOU) reported that North Korea sent 449 additional workers to the complex last month, bringing the total number of North Korean employees at the KIC to 50,315.

The majority of the workers are women, comprising 72 percent of the total employees. A total of 81.8 percent are high school graduates, while 9.5 percent are college graduates and 8.7 percent are graduates from specialized/professional schools.

The KIC has had a low worker turnover rate. Some of the workers are licensed doctors and nurses, signifying the popularity of employment at the complex.

However, the MOU added that, “in order to meet the demands of the South Korean corporations in the KIC, 20,000 more workers are needed.”

Currently the average monthly wage of the workers is 110 USD, which is paid directly to the North Korean authorities in US dollars by the South Korean companies.

Out of the total wage, 45 percent is deducted and collected by the North Korean government as social security (15 percent) and social cultural policy funds (30 percent). The North Korean workers receive 55 percent of the total wage, which is paid either in coupons or North Korean currency.

Since the KIC’s opening in 2004, the total amount paid to the KIC workers reached 193.58 million USD as of November 2011.

Despite the deadlocked relations between the two Koreas, the number of employees, along with production and number of businesses, has steadily increased.

The number of employees in 2007 was 23,529. Thus the number has increased to over 50,000 in just four years, and the yearly production output has risen from 180 million to 400 million USD.

Cumulative production also increased from 310 million USD in March 2008 to 1.19 billion USD as of last year. During this time, 55 additional South Korean companies joined the KIC.

Yearly export output jumped from 870,000 USD in 2005 to 36.87 million USD in 2011. However, this is a drop from the previous year’s export of 39.67 million USD. Cumulative export as of November 2011 was 190 million USD.

In the assessment of the MOU, “the decrease in export reflects buyer’s anxiety from instability in inter-Korean relations and North Korean military provocations and many of the manufactured goods were sold domestically in South Korea.”

In addition, the issue of KIC-made products to be granted a “made in Korea” label is still under debate. According to an undisclosed MOU source, “This July will mark the one year anniversary of the ROK-EU FTA and the Committee on Outward Processing Zones (OPZ) is scheduled to meet to discuss the matter of KIC’s recognition as OPZ. But it will not be an easy game to win.”

UPDATE:  The Hankyoreh also wrote about the Kaesong Zone’s growth.

According to the Choson Ilbo, China-N.Korea trade has reached a historically high level (as it does nearly every quarter).

China’s trade with North Korea has tripled since 2005. According to the Korea Trade-Investment Promotion Agency (KOTRA), Chinese customs statistics show that China has been bumping up its trade with the North by US$1 billion every three years since the middle of the last decade.

After first breaking past the $1-billion trade barrier in 2005, China posted $2 billion in 2008 and over $3 billion last year. Minerals, machinery and cars topped the list of exports, and two-way trade last year reached its all-time peak of $5 billion.

Additional Information:
Read the full story here:
China-N.Korea Trade Reaches All-time High
Choson Ilbo
2012-2-9

According ot the Donga Ilbo:

About 10,000 tons of fruit have been exported every year to North Korea via the Chinese city of Dandong in Liaoning Province, which borders the North at the estuary of the Yalu River.

Fruit imports for the North`s elite have reportedly posted double-digit growth over the past five years despite severe food shortages in the Stalinist country.

An informed source in Dandong said Monday, “About 10,000 tons of fruit were exported to North Korea via Dandong Marine Center last year,” adding, “They were worth 100 million yuan (16 million dollars).”

Shipments to North Korea have grown about 15 percent per year on average over the past five years, the source said.

Fruits exported to the North include the different varieties available in China, including subtropical and tropical types such as bananas, pineapples, litchis, dragon fruit and durians as well as apples, tangerines and watermelons.

The source said fruit exports surge just before major North Korean holidays, including Feb. 16 (the birthday of the late North Korean leader Kim Jong Il) and April 15 (the birthday of North Korea founder Kim Il Sung).

“Fruit exports significantly increased ahead of Christmas Day in the past, but there was no notable change in exports last year due to the death of Kim Jong Il,“ the source said.

North Korea does not celebrate Christmas but fruit exports usually increased because Dec. 24 marks the birthday of Kim Jong Il’s biological mother Kim Jong Suk. The shipments are sent to Pyongyang for use at events or consumed by the power elite. Payment is made mostly with U.S. dollars, but the yuan is often used to settle accounts.

The Dandong city government also established an agency in charge of fruit exports to the North. Liaoning Province announced on its website Thursday that a center for market purchase of exported fruits for border area trading was set up in Dandong.

The purpose of the market is for Dandong to supply fruit to meet growing demand in North Korea, and assure the quality and safety of them.

Furthermore, the agency aims to manage chaotic fruit export markets for North Korea. In Dandong, a number of fruit stores targeting trade with the North rather than sale to residents are reportedly operating.

One fruit vendor said, “We`re shipping fruit via vehicles that regularly travel back and forth to and from Shinuiju and Dandong.”

The center is designed to control and manage the overall fruit export market to the North, including fruit exports by such small merchants. From now on, all fruit exports to North Korea will be reportedly be sent through this center.

The center is a subsidiary of Dandong Guopin Co. Ltd., a state-run company established by Dandong. It has a system worth 10 million yuan (16.4 million dollars) designed to enhance capacity in sorting, refrigeration, packaging, inspection and transport of fruits.

The center has taken charge of about half of fruit shipments from Dandong to North Korea every year, and its office is in Dandung Marine Center.

Read the full story here:
Chinese city exports $16 mln worth of fruit to N.Korea yearly
Donga Ilbo
2012-2-6

According to the Donga Ilbo:

About 10,000 tons of fruit have been exported every year to North Korea via the Chinese city of Dandong in Liaoning Province, which borders the North at the estuary of the Yalu River.
Fruit imports for the North`s elite have reportedly posted double-digit growth over the past five years despite severe food shortages in the Stalinist country.

An informed source in Dandong said Monday, “About 10,000 tons of fruit were exported to North Korea via Dandong Marine Center last year,” adding, “They were worth 100 million yuan (16 million dollars).”

Shipments to North Korea have grown about 15 percent per year on average over the past five years, the source said.

Fruits exported to the North include the different varieties available in China, including subtropical and tropical types such as bananas, pineapples, litchis, dragon fruit and durians as well as apples, tangerines and watermelons.

The source said fruit exports surge just before major North Korean holidays, including Feb. 16 (the birthday of the late North Korean leader Kim Jong Il) and April 15 (the birthday of North Korea founder Kim Il Sung).

“Fruit exports significantly increased ahead of Christmas Day in the past, but there was no notable change in exports last year due to the death of Kim Jong Il,“ the source said.

North Korea does not celebrate Christmas but fruit exports usually increased because Dec. 24 marks the birthday of Kim Jong Il’s biological mother Kim Jong Suk. The shipments are sent to Pyongyang for use at events or consumed by the power elite. Payment is made mostly with U.S. dollars, but the yuan is often used to settle accounts.

The Dandong city government also established an agency in charge of fruit exports to the North. Liaoning Province announced on its website Thursday that a center for market purchase of exported fruits for border area trading was set up in Dandong.

The purpose of the market is for Dandong to supply fruit to meet growing demand in North Korea, and assure the quality and safety of them.

Furthermore, the agency aims to manage chaotic fruit export markets for North Korea. In Dandong, a number of fruit stores targeting trade with the North rather than sale to residents are reportedly operating.

One fruit vendor said, “We`re shipping fruit via vehicles that regularly travel back and forth to and from Shinuiju and Dandong.”

The center is designed to control and manage the overall fruit export market to the North, including fruit exports by such small merchants. From now on, all fruit exports to North Korea will be reportedly be sent through this center.

The center is a subsidiary of Dandong Guopin Co. Ltd., a state-run company established by Dandong. It has a system worth 10 million yuan (16.4 million dollars) designed to enhance capacity in sorting, refrigeration, packaging, inspection and transport of fruits.

The center has taken charge of about half of fruit shipments from Dandong to North Korea every year, and its office is in Dandung Marine Center.

Read the full story here:
Chinese city exports $16 mln worth of fruit to N.Korea yearly
Donga Ilbo
2012-2-6