North Korean Economy Watch

According to Agence France-Presse:

The UN food body on Saturday said it had approved $200 million of food aid for North Korea, targeting the country’s most vulnerable people who remain dependent on external assistance.

The World Food Programme (WFP) executive board has this week approved a new two-year operation for North Korea starting on July 1, WFP spokesman Marcus Prior said.

“It will target about 2.4 million people – almost all children, and pregnant and nursing women – with about 207,000 [206,800] metric tons of food assistance at a cost of US$200 million,” he said in an email to AFP.

The WFP will continue to focus on the nutritional needs of young children and their mothers through food which will be manufactured in the North using ingredients imported by the food body, he said.

“WFP remains very concerned about the long-term intellectual and physical development of young children in particular who are malnourished due to a diet lacking in key proteins, fats and micronutrients,” added Prior.

In March, UN resident coordinator in North Korea Desiree Jongsma said timely imports from the WFP had contributed to avoiding a crisis this year but two thirds of the nation’s 24 million population were still chronically food insecure.

Nearly 28 percent of children under five in the North suffer from chronic malnutrition and four percent are acutely malnourished, according to a UN national nutrition survey last year.

Overall production for the main 2012 harvest and early season crops this year was expected to reach 5.8 million tonnes, up 10 percent on 2011-2012, UN agencies said in November.

But the poverty-stricken country is still struggling to eradicate malnutrition and provide its people with vital protein, the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization and WFP said.

North Korea suffered regular chronic food shortages under the Kim dynasty, with the situation exacerbated by floods, droughts and mismanagement. During a famine in the mid to late-1990s, hundreds of thousands died.

International food aid, especially that from South Korea and the United States, has been drastically cut over the past several years amid tensions over the communist state’s nuclear and missile programmes.

The US last provided food aid to North Korea from late 2008 to March 2009. Some 170,000 tonnes out of an expected 500,000 tonnes was delivered, until Pyongyang expelled US workers monitoring the distribution.

Here is the official announcement.

Quarterly bulletin for WFP’s operation Nutrition Support to Women and Children in DPR Korea (Q1, 2013)

DPRK National Nutrition Survey (October 2012)

Read the full story here:
UN food body approves $200 mn food aid to N. Korea
Agence France-Presse
2013-6-8

According to Yonhap:

The growth of North Korea’s exports and overall trade volume slowed down significantly last year, apparently due to international sanctions condemning its nuclear test and other provocations, Seoul’s trade promotion agency said Wednesday.

According to the Korea Trade-Investment Promotion Agency, better known as KOTRA, North Korea’s overall trade reached US$6.81 billion in 2012, growing 7.1 percent from a year earlier and reaching a record high since 1990 when such data began to be compiled.

The growth, however, marked a sharp slowdown from a 51.3 percent on-year hike in 2011.

“Such a significant slowdown of growth last year appears to have been caused by the fact that North Korea has only a limited number of export products and that sanctions by the international community continued,” KOTRA said in a press release.

The North’s overall exports gained 3.3 percent on-year to $2.88 billion with imports surging 10.2 percent to $3.93 billion.

Still, the North’s trade relations with its communist ally China strengthened with the countries’ bilateral trade reaching $6.01 billion, accounting for 88.3 percent of the North’s overall trade in 2012.

Trade with China has also slowed. According to Yonhap:

North Korea’s imports from China for this year registered its first drop in three years due apparently to China’s tightened grip on transactions with its ally under United Nations sanctions, Beijing’s customs data showed Wednesday.

The North brought in US$1.01 billion worth of Chinese goods during the January-April period, down 8.68 percent from a year earlier, according to China’s online customs data analyzed by Yonhap News Agency.

It was the first annual drop for the four-month period since 2010 when Customs-info, the online customs data provider, started to provide related information.

The North’s imports from China stood at $525.8 million for the same four-month period in 2010. It had posted two successive annual increases to reach $1.1 billion in 2012 before registering a fall this year, according to the data.

The on-year reduction this year can be attributable to China’s increased efforts to strictly apply punitive U. N. sanctions adopted to punish the North for its long-range rocket launch, believed to have been a test of its ballistic missile technology, and its third nuclear test, which occurred on Feb. 12.

Taking a step back from its previous stance to keep neutral about its ally, China joined punitive international moves by tightening its customs and immigration inspections toward the North.

The data, however, showed that the North’s exports to China grew 6 percent on-year to $842.8 million during the January-April period.

Read the full stories here:
Growth of N. Korean trade slows in 2012
Yonhap
2013-5-29

N. Korea’s imports from China drop amid tensions
Yonhap
2013-5-29

UPDATE 1 (2013-5-27): The DPRK has significantly its imports of Chinese fertilizers. According to Yonhap:

North Korea’s fertilizer imports from China jumped nearly five-fold last month from a year earlier, a report showed Monday, pointing to Pyongyang’s efforts to increase agricultural produce.

The North brought in 91,318 tons of Chinese fertilizer in April, compared with 15,218 tons a year earlier, according to the report released by Kwon Tae-jin, an analyst at the Korea Rural Economic Institute.

For the January-April period, the total fertilizer imports from China, the North’s closest provider of resources, came to 121,109 tons, 4.6 times more than those shipped in for the same four months last year, according to the report based on data from the Korea International Trade Association.

The sharp increase in fertilizer imports seems unexpected, given that China is imposing high-rate export customs in order to limit outbound shipments of Chinese fertilizer, Kwon said.

“The increase this year shows that the North is putting top priority on boosting productivity in the agricultural sector as well as that the conditions for fertilizer production in the North Korea are in a bad shape,” the analyst said.

The report also showed that the North imported 25,850 tons of grains like rice and corn from China last month, only half of what it brought in from China a year earlier.

Read the full story here:
N. Korea’s fertilizer imports from China jump 5-fold in April
Yonhap
2013-5-27

Original Post (2013-4-30): According to Yonhap, the DPRK has increased its imports of Chinese fertilizers.

According to the report by the Korea Rural Economic Institute (KREI), Pyongyang bought 29,791 tons of chemical fertilizers from its neighbor, up 3.6 fold from the 6,530 tons it imported for the same three month period in 2012.

It said for March alone, the country brought in 28,725 tons of fertilizer.

“Normally the North imports fertilizers in April,” said Kwon Tae-jin, a research fellow at KREI. He said the fact that it bought so much ahead of when it usually imports the product means Pyongyang may be interested in improving farm output.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un had said earlier in the year that the North needs to concentrate on farming and light industries in 2013 because they directly impact the everyday lives of people.

The expert, in addition, speculated that a surge in imports could be the result of problems in local fertilizer production.

The latest findings based on data provided by Korea International Trade Association, meanwhile, showed the North importing 54,178 tons of grain from China in the first quarter, an increase of 31.6 percent from the year before.

Total imports as measured in dollars also jumped 39.2 percent on-year to US$24.71 million from $17.75 million in the first three months of last year.

Read the full story here:
N. Korea’s imports of Chinese fertilizers jump in Q1: report
Yonhap
2013-4-30

UPDATE 2 (2013-5-24): South Korea has again requested that the DPRK repay past food loans. According to Yonhap:

South Korea again called on North Korea Friday to repay millions of dollars in loans provided in the form of food since 2000, the Unification Ministry said.

The impoverished North missed the June 7, 2012 deadline to repay South Korea US$5.83 million in the first installment of the $724 million food loan extended to the North in rice and corn. The latest call is the South’s fifth demand made on the North to repay its debt.

Seoul’s state-run Export-Import Bank (Eximbank) sent a message on Thursday to Pyongyang’s Foreign Trade Bank, calling for the repayment, Unification Ministry spokesman Kim Hyung-suk said in a briefing.

The South Korean bank also sent another message the same day, notifying the North of its forthcoming June 7th deadline to repay the second installment of $5.78 million, the spokesman said.

“North Korea should faithfully abide by what they previously agreed to with the South,” Kim said, calling for the repayment of food loans.

Amid a conciliatory mode under the liberal-minded late President Kim Dae-jung, Seoul started to provide food loans to the famine-ridden country, providing a total of 2.4 million tons of rice and 200,000 tons of corn from 2000-2007.

Under the deal, the North is required to pay back a total of $875.32 million by 2037.

Read the full story here:
S. Korea again asks North to repay food loans
Yonhap
2013-5-24

UPDATE 1 (2012-7-15):  South Korea claims the DPRK missed a deadline for explaining how it intended to repay South Korean “loans”. According to Yonhap:

North Korea missed the deadline Sunday for notifying South Korea of how it will repay millions of dollars in loans provided in the form of food in 2000, resulting in Seoul having the right to declare Pyongyang has defaulted on its debt, an official said.

South Korea sent the North a message on June 15 that the communist nation was supposed to have paid back US$5.83 million in the first installment of a 2000 food loan worth $88.36 million by June 7. The North was required to respond to the message in 30 days.

That deadline passed on Sunday with the North remaining silent, giving South Korea the right to declare the North has defaulted on the debt, according to a government official in Seoul.

But South Korea is unlikely to go ahead with the declaration any time soon as it would have little effect on the North. The communist nation remains largely outside of the international financial system and the prospect of national default is unlikely to force it to repay its debt.

Officials said they are considering sending Pyongyang a message again calling for debt repayment.

Widespread views are that it won’t be easy for the North, which is still struggling with food shortages, to pay back its debt, but officials said the country could repay the debt in kind as it did before. In 2007 and 2008, the North repaid some debt with $2.4 million worth of zinc ores.

After the two Koreas held their first-ever summit in 2000, South Korea provided the North with a total of US$720 million in loans of rice and corn until 2007. Including interest accrued on the loans, the North is required to repay some US$875 million by 2037.

Such aid has been cut off after the South’s President Lee Myung-bak took office with a pledge to link any assistance to the North to progress in international efforts to end Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons programs.

The Daily NK also covered the story.

ORIGINAL POST (2012-6-8): According to Yonhap:

North Korea has not shown any signs of repaying the loans South Korea extended in food grains since 2000 although the initial day of the scheduled repayment passed as of Thursday. The South Korean government provided North Korea grain loans worth US$725 million for seven years until 2007, including 2.4 million tons of rice and 200,000 tons of corn. The total principal and interest North Korea should repay for the next 20 years is estimated at $875.32 million.

North Korea was scheduled to pay South Korea $5.83 million by Thursday for the loans extended to it in 2000. Korea Eximbank, which is in charge of trade finance with the North, notified its counterpart the Chosun Trade Bank of North Korea of the repayment obligation Monday but North Korea had not responded of Friday.

The former South Korean governments led by President Kim Dae-jung and Roh Moo-hyun provided an estimated 1 trillion won (US$850 million) to North Korea from 2000 to 2007 under the sunshine policy. South Korea provided an additional 1.37 trillion won to North Korea to finance the construction of a light water reactor in order to suspend North Korea’s nuclear development. All the loans to the North were taxpayer’s money.

…

North Korea should show sincerity in the repayment of these loans for the sake of its future. If it fails to do so, the North will encounter substantial difficulties in accessing further loans from the international community. North Korea also has failed to repay loans it borrowed from the old Soviet Union. Russia reportedly had to reduce 90 percent of the Norths loans, worth $11 billion.

If North Korea has difficulties repaying its debts to South Korea in cash, it should sincerely discuss alternative measures to repay the loans with the South Korean government.

The South Korean government should positively consider measures to get the money back in kind, such as in mineral resources. North Korea should understand that if it fails to show the minimum sincerity on the repayment of its debts, it will experience much more difficulty in attracting economic assistance from the outside world.

The Choson Ilbo reports this additional information:

In 2007 and 2008, South Korea also gave the North $80 million worth of raw materials to produce textiles, shoes and soap. At the time, North Korea repaid 3 percent of the loan with $2.4 million worth of zinc ingots. Repayments of the remaining $77.6 million become due after a five-year grace period, so North Korea must start repaying $8.6 million a year every year for 10 years starting in 2014.

Seoul also loaned Pyongyang W585.2 billion (US$1=W1,172) from the Inter-Korean Cooperation Fund so it could re-connect railways and roads with the South that were severed in the 1950-53 Korean War. And it provided W149.4 billion worth of equipment to the North. The North must repay that loan in 20 years with a 10-year grace period at an annual interest of 1 percent.

It also seems unlikely that South Korea will be able to recoup W1.37 trillion plus around W900 billion in interest it provided North Korea through an abortive project by the Korean Energy Development Organization to build a light-water reactor.

The loans amount to a total of around W3.5 trillion, which the South will probably have to write off.

The Daily NK also reported on this story.

Read the full story here:
North Korea should show sincerity in repaying South Korea loans
Yonhap
2012-6-8

N.Korea Misses 1st Loan Repayment Deadline
Choson Ilbo
2012-6-8

According to Yonhap:

Trade between South and North Korea tumbled last month after the North shut down the jointly run industrial park in its border town of Kaesong, government data showed Tuesday.

The monthly inter-Korean trade volume came to US$23.43 million in April, down 88 percent from $194.27 million recorded the previous month, according to the data from the Ministry of Unification in charge of inter-Korean affairs.

The April figure is almost similar to the average monthly trade volume of $23.94 million registered in 1995.

In early April, the North banned the entry of South Korean workers and materials into the Kaesong Industrial Complex and withdrew all North Korean workers employed by South Korean firms there in protest against Seoul’s joint military exercises with the U.S. in March.

…

Trade between the two countries, which remain technically at war since the 1950-53 Korean War ended in an armistice, had steadily increased since late in the 1980’s to register an annual record of $1 billion in 2005.

Read the full story here:
Tnter-Korean Trade Tumble
Yonhap
2013-5-21

According to Yonhap:

Trade volume between North Korea and the European Union (EU) more than halved last year from a year earlier after the North sharply cut exports of mineral resources, a news report said Friday.

The trade volume between the two sides came to 69 million euros (US$90.2 million) in 2012, only 43.4 percent of the 159 million euros recorded the previous year, the Washington-based Voice of America (VOA) reported, citing EU data.

The dive came as the North’s total exports to the EU shrank to 24 million euros last year from 117 million euros the previous year, according to the VOA report.

The communist country exported only 3 million euros worth of mineral resources, the main export item, to EU countries in 2012, compared with 71 million in 2011, it said.

North Korea’s imports from EU countries, meanwhile, rose 7.1 percent on-year to 45 million euros last year, led by brisk imports of machinery and electronics goods, according to the report.

Read the full story here:
N. Korea’s trade with EU halves in 2012
Yonhap
2013-5-3

According to Reuters:

Bilateral trade dropped more than 7 percent to $1.3 billion in January-March, with China’s imports from North Korea rising 2.5 percent to $590 million but exports down 13.8 percent to $720 million – excluding fuel, food or other Chinese aid. Annual trade is worth some $6 billion, a fraction of China’s trade with South Korea which last year topped $230 billion.

…

China also supplies virtually all of North Korea’s external energy needs – crude oil, diesel and jet fuel – much of it in the form of off-the-books aid.

While Chinese data showed no exports of crude oil to North Korea in February, deliveries resumed in March, with customs figures showing 106,000 metric tons of supply. China officially supplied 523,041 metric tons of crude oil last year.

The Ministry of Commerce appears to be delaying or possibly cancelling an internal tender to supply North Korea with diesel fuel, two oil trading sources said, while a person close to state-owned Sinochem Group said jet fuel flows were normal. China supplied North Korea with 42,251 metric tons of jet fuel last year, according to customs data, and 31,050 metric tons of diesel.

Another trading source said coal imports from North Korea – typically entering China through Dandong’s Donggang Port after coming down the Yalu River or up the coast – were not affected.

Many Chinese companies are also involved in mining in North Korea. A source at Wanxiang Resources, which has a copper mine in Hyesan in North Korea’s Ryanggang province, said there had been no orders from China to withdraw their workers, although North Korean staff had been asked to attend more political activities, which was hurting production.

Read more in the Wall Street Journal.

Read the full story here:
China steps up customs checks, but North Korea trade robust
Reuters
2013-4-30

According to Yonhap:

According to the data compiled by the Ministry of Unification and based on information provided by foreign institutions, there were minor improvements in grain production and electricity output, but the difference was minimal and may have actually fueled inequality.

“Personally, I see almost no change from a year earlier,” said a ministry official, who did not want to be identified.

The data was released to the press to coincide with the first anniversary of the North Korean leader having assumed the country’s top job. Kim inherited the communist country after the death of his father in late 2011, but became the first secretary of the Workers’ Party of Korea on April 11 of last year.

North Korea’s food production is estimated to have increased 10.5 percent on-year to 4.92 million tons in the 2012-2013 grain year, the official said, adding that this translates into a shortage of 210,000 tons, down from 300,000 tons from the previous year.

The official, however, said foreign data is based purely on information given by Pyongyang, and is not reliable.

“There may be a need to carefully look at the data on grain,” he said, hinting at the fact that there have been numerous cases over the years where official information was not supported by facts.

On power production, the recent opening of the Huichon power station has increased output by 21.1 billion kilowatts, but the benefits are mostly being felt by the elite in Pyongyang. Outside the capital city, other regions are still affected by power shortages, he claimed.

The official added that while Kim has been calling for the bolstering of its agriculture and light industries, funds earmarked for these sectors grew at a slower pace than the overall growth of the budget.

The 2013 budget grew 5.9 percent from the year before, but funds for the light industry and farming sectors gained 5.1 percent. Defense spending on the other hand gained 16 percent on-year.

The latest data showed that consumer prices have generally been moving up since last year, potentially putting a greater burden on many people whose salaries have not changed in years, the official said.

Read the full story here:
N.K. economy remains unchanged under new leader: data
Yonhap
2013-4-12

According to Yonhap:

North Korea imported an unusually massive amount of silver from China in January, possibly in relation to leader Kim Jong-un’s birthday that month, sources and China’s customs office said Thursday.

Data from China’s customs office showed that North Korea imported 661.71 kilograms of Chinese silver for US$653,128 in January.

The monthly import is unusually enormous given that the North took in only $77,593 worth of precious metal and other jewels for the whole of 2012. The corresponding amount for 2011 was $57,000.

Before January this year, the North had hardly spent more than $10,000 on monthly imports of such goods, according to the data.

Given the leader’s birthday on Jan. 8, North Korea watchers said the massive amount of imported silver may have been used to produce silverware souvenirs to celebrate the leader’s birthday.

“It’s difficult to assume the exact purpose of the silver imports,” a source said. Given that late leader Kim Jong-il used to bring in foreign brand luxury sedans and expensive watches to treat the country’s top echelon on major holidays, the bulk of silver imported in January may have been used for similar purposes, the source said.

Backing this assumption, the customs data also showed that the North imported an unusually large amount of costume jewelry worth $10,447 in the same month.

A reader points out this Daily NK story hypothesizing that the silver could have been used in batteries:

As such, there are suspicions that the recent North Korean decision to import more than 600kg of silver through China was done to facilitate the production of batteries for submersible production.

A North Korean military source told Daily NK on the 4th, “The [North Korean] Navy has been producing submersibles at every shipyard on their east and west coasts ever since the attack on the Cheonan in 2010.”

According to the inside source, prior to the Cheonan sinking such vessels were produced at one shipyard, the disguised ‘Bongdae Boiler Factory’ in Sinpo, South Hamkyung Province, at a rate of five per year. However, following the sinking of the Cheonan that rate went up four times to 16 per year, as the vessels started being produced across multiple shipyards including Yongampo, Chongjin and Rajin.

The source explained, “The reason why the North Korean authorities are increasing production of this kind of submersible that can fire torpedoes is to maximize their underwater attack capacity. The subs can take 12 to 15 soldiers yet still sink destroyers weighing thousands of tons with their twin torpedoes.”

“The engines noise on the submersibles is very quiet, making them able to approach their targets underwater in secret, while it is impossible to trace crimes such as the Cheonan incident,” the source went on, adding that during North Korean military training exercises they also emphasize the essential nature of the subs.

The rising production is pushing up demand for batteries, the source then went on to add, saying that this required the bulk production of both silver and zinc. “All the silver produced in North Korea is supplied to the shipyards,” he claimed.

The source admitted to being confused, therefore, at North Korea’s recent decision to import 660kg of silver from China, declaring, “There is lots of silver being produced in North Korea, so it’s hard to say why they are importing it from China…I suppose it may have been just that more batteries were being produced so they needed more silver.”

Read the full stories here:
N. Korea imports massive amount of Chinese silver in Jan.: data
Yonhap
2013-3-28

NK Producing More Silvery Subs
Daily NK
2013-4-5

The official UN web page is here.

Here is the description:

Conducted in all provinces of DPRK from September 17th to October 17th, 2012, the National Nutrition Survey was a joint collaboration between DPRK Government, involving the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS), the Child Nutrition Institute, the MOPH and the National Coordination Committee as well as WHO, WFP and UNICEF.

Amongst others, the results of the survey show that Stunting remains an area of great concern in DPRK. About 28% of Korean children are stunted (Chronic Malnutrition) with provincial disparities. Acute malnutrition (4%) is present and varies according to provinces but even if the prevalence is not alarming, support is still needed to treat these children because of the high mortality risk associated with acute malnutrition. The survey also provides detail on children’s and women’s feeding practices.

You can download a PDF of the report here.

I have added this report to my “DPRK Economics Statistics Page”.