North Korean Economy Watch

According to Yonhap:

The food situation for North Korean people improved slightly last year thanks to increased food rations and more outside support, a report by the World Food Programme (WFP) said Friday.

According to the WFP report, about 46 percent of North Korean families consumed an “acceptable” level of essential nutrients in the October-December period of 2013.

About 17 percent were categorized as having “poor” food consumption, while the rest, about 38 percent, were defined as at the “borderline” level.

The report is based on a WPF survey of 119 North Korean families as well as the food agency’s interviews with North Korean authorities.

The 2013 figures mark a modest improvement from a year ago, when a similar WPF report put only 26 percent of North Koreans in the relatively well-to-do “acceptable” bracket.

About 50 percent were at the “borderline” level, while 24 percent were ranked as “poor” in the report on the food situation in the fourth quarter of 2012.

The better outcome in 2013 is attributable to more generous food rations as well as WFP’s continued nutritive support, the report noted, adding that the daily food rations for each North Korean grew to 390 grams in October last year, before further raising to 400 grams in the following two months.

Fewer North Koreans are expected to suffer food shortages in the first quarter of 2014, the report predicted, citing protein as the most needed nutrient for North Korean citizens.

Although the Yonhap report does NOT cite a source (!?!) I have found it and offer a link below:
Protracted Relief and Recovery Operation (PRRO) 200532 “Nutrition Support for Children and Women” in DPR Korea (October – December 2013)
UN World Food Program
Other WFP docs can be found here.

At the same time, UN WFP assistance to the DPRK was at an all time low in 2013. According to Yonhap:

North Korea received record-low food aid from the United Nations food agency in 2013 due to sluggish contributions from the international community, a media report said Wednesday.

Some 38,000 tons of food were delivered from the World Food Program (WFP) to the impoverished communist country in 2013, some 30 percent of the agency’s target for the year, according to the Washington-based Radio Free Asia (RFA).

It was less than half the amount sent in the previous year and the smallest since 1996 when the agency began helping the North, the report said, adding it was attributable to the WFP’s failure to raise enough funds to achieve the goal.

The amount of the U.N. agency’s food aid to the North has been fluctuating from some 136,000 tons in 2008, 50,000 tons in 2010, 100,000 tons in 2011 and 84,000 tons in 2012, according to WFP data.

Citing its dark fund-raising prospects in 2014, the WFP told the RFA that most of its factories for producing nutrition biscuits for the people there were on the verge of shutting down in February.

The daily food rations for the people in the North came to some 400 grams per person last year, far lower than the minimum recommended amount of 600 grams and the North Korean regime’s target amount of 573 grams, the WFP said.

North Korea’s food production is estimated to have been at about 5.03 million metric tons in 2013, up 5 percent from the previous year, according to the WFP report posted on its website.

The food security situation, however, is still serious, with 84 percent of all households having borderline or poor food consumption, it added.

The North’s leader Kim Jong-un put an emphasis on food production in his New Year’s message last week, saying “all efforts should go for agriculture … in order to build a strong economy and to improve the people’s livelihoods.”

Read the full stories here:
N. Korea’s food situation better a tad in 2013: WFP
Yonhap
2014-2-14

WFP’s food aid to N. Korea hits all-time low in 2013
Yonhap
2014-1-8

According to Yonhap (via Korea Herald):

The United Nations humanitarian fund created to speed up relief efforts around the world said it allocated $15.1 million for aid to North Korea in 2013.

The Central Emergency Response Fund said on its website that it provided emergency food assistance, as well as vaccines and essential medicines, to people in the flood-affected regions especially children and women in the communist North through the World Food Program and other U.N. organizations.

In 2012, the U.N. humanitarian fund allocated $12.9 million to North Korea.

The CERF provided a total of $482 million to 45 countries across the globe last year, with North Korea being the 11th-largest recipient.

The North has relied on international handouts since the late 1990s when it suffered a widespread famine that was estimated to have killed 2 million people.

Read the full story here:
U.N. fund gives $15.1 mln to N. Korea in 2013
Yonhap (via Korea Herald)
2014-2-4

Yonhap reports that China – DPRK trade appears unaffected by the purge of Jang Song-thaek. According to the article:

Despite North Korea’s stunning execution of the leader’s uncle in December, its trade with China remained solid in January, up 16 percent from a year earlier, data showed Friday.

Jang Song-thaek, the country’s No. 2 man and leader Kim Jong-un’s uncle, had played an important role in dealing with Beijing before being executed late last year on treason charges. The political upheaval raised concerns over a possible instability that could spill over into other areas of the reclusive country’s moribund economy and society.

Still, trade volume between North Korea and its major trading partner China came to US$546 million in January, compared with $471 million from a year earlier, according to the data compiled by the Korea International Trade Association (KITA).

North Korean exports to China jumped 18 percent on-year to $223 million, with imports rising 14.5 percent to $323 million, the data showed.

Anthracite was the No. 1 export item for the impoverished country to its communist neighbor, selling some $101 million worth of the natural resource last month, up 21.3 percent from a year ago.

North Korea’s anthracite exports are a major source of income, and China is virtually the only destination for the shipments.

Inbound shipments of China-made cell phones soared 28 percent on-year to $14.4 million in January, the data showed.

“Trade volume between the two countries is expected to rise further given China’s growing demand for minerals for its project to develop its three northeastern provinces of Heilongjiang, Jilin and Liaoning,” said Lim Eul-chul, a research professor at Kyungnam University.

“Such political variables as Jang’s execution would not likely affect the trend,” he added.

The heavily sanctioned North Korea has been increasingly reliant on China, though the Asian giant has become frustrated with its wayward neighbor, particularly after Pyongyang’s third nuclear test early last year.

In 2013, trade volume between the two reached a record $6.45 billion last year, up 10.4 percent from the previous year, according to KITA data.

The Wall Street Journal notes:

“Bilateral trade has probably yet to feel the impact of Mr. Jang’s execution,” said Cho Bong-hyun, research fellow at Seoul-based IBK Economic Research Institute.

“Both sides are still acting on trade contracts that have already been signed and usually take effect for six months,” Mr. Cho said.

Mr. Cho said he expects the impact from Mr. Jang’s purge will begin to appear in the data from the second quarter of this year. North Korea may also increasingly turn to trade with South Korea following a thawing of ties and the reopening of a jointly run Kaesong industrial park, he said.

The KITA data show inter-Korean trade volume shrank 42% to an eight-year low of $1.15 billion last year, when the Kaesong complex was closed for several months after North Korea pulled out its workers.

North Korean-Chinese trade volume hit a record high of $6.54 billion last year, according to KITA, as North Korea exported natural resources such as coal and iron ore, while importing fuel and electronics goods.

The Korea Trade-Investment Promotion Agency, Seoul’s state-funded trade agency, said in a report last year that North Korea’s bilateral trade with China accounted for 88% of Pyongyang’s entire external trade in 2012, up from 53% in 2005.

Read the full stories here:
N. Korea, China trade unaffected by stunning execution: data
Yonhap
2014-2-28

Jang Purge Yet to Hurt North Korea-China Trade
Wall Street Journal
Kwanwoo Jun
2014-2-28

According to Yonhap:

Trade volume between North Korea and its major trading partner China reached a record US$6.45 billion last year, up 10.4 percent from a year earlier, data showed Saturday.

North Korean exports to China jumped 17.2 percent on-year, while imports from China increased 5.4 percent, according to the data from the Korea International Trade Association.

Pyongyang’s trade deficit recorded $721 million, a 25 percent decrease compared with the previous year, the data showed.

North Korea’s major export items were minerals, with $1.37 billion worth of anthracite and $294.1 million of iron ore shipped to China last year.

North Korea’s anthracite exports are a major source of income, and China is virtually the only destination for the shipments.

The isolated socialist state heavily relied on China for crude oil, buying $598.1 million from its sole financial and diplomatic backer.

Inbound shipments of China-made cell phones fell to $44 million last year, shrinking by 26.6 percent from a year ago.

The latest data showed the heavily sanctioned North Korea is increasingly reliant on China, even though the Asian giant has become frustrated with its wayward neighbor, particularly after Pyongyang’s third nuclear test early last year.

Since these numbers are aggregated, we cannot observe if the purge of Jang song-thaek and his patronage network had any effect on DPRK/China trade at the end of the year.

The DPRK also increased oil imports from China in 2013. According to Yonhap (2014-2-10):

Shipments of crude oil to North Korea from China increased 11.2 percent on-year in 2013, a South Korean government report showed Monday, the latest sign that Beijing still gives Pyongyang access to the vital commodity despite its defiant pursuit of nuclear weapons.

North Korea imported a total of 578,000 tons of crude oil from China last year, compared with 520,000 tons in 2012, according to the report based on China’s customs data.

Monthly shipments of crude oil from China to North Korea were absent in February, June and July last year, but Beijing exported “a large amount of crude oil” to Pyongyang in the second-half of last year, the report said.

In 2013, trade between North Korea and China rose 8.9 percent on-year to reach US$6.54 billion, with the North’s exports to China jumping 18 percent to $2.91 billion, the report showed.

“Our overall analysis is that international sanctions against North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs have not reduced or shrunk the North’s trade with China,” a South Korean diplomat said on the condition of anonymity.

Here is coverage in the Daily NK.

Additional information:
1. Imports of grain were up. Food aid imports from UN were down.

2. Coal exports to China up.

3. DPRK visitors to China up.

Read the full stories here:
Trade between N. Korea, China hits record $6.45 bln in 2013
Yonhap
2014-1-31

N. Korea’s crude oil imports from China rise 11.2 pct in 2013
Yonhap
2014-2-10

According to Yonhap:

North Korea’s imports of Chinese grain increased 5.9 percent in 2013 from a year earlier, a South Korean think tank said Monday.

The Korea Rural Economic Institute said Pyongyang’s imports of Chinese flour, rice, corn and other grain products reached 298,257 tons in 2013, compared with 281,633 tons a year earlier.

North Korea’s food production is estimated to have been at about 5.03 million metric tons in 2013, up 5 percent from the previous year, the U.N. World Food Program said in November.

Still, the food security situation is still serious, with 84 percent of all households having borderline or poor food consumption, the U.N. food agency said in a report posted on its website.

Food aid from the UN is down in 2013.

Read the full story here:
N. Korean imports of Chinese grain up 5.9 pct last year
Yonhap
2014-1-27

According to Yonhap:

North Korea’s exports of anthracite coal to China grew 15.5 percent in 2013 from a year earlier, data showed Friday.

North Korea shipped a total of US$1.37 billion worth of anthracite to China last year, compared with $1.19 billion sold to the neighbor a year earlier, according to the data from the Korea International Trade Association.

North Korea exported only $162.6 million worth of the coal to China In 2007, but the figure has grown every year since then, according to the data.

The total anthracite exported to China last year was measured at 16.5 million tons, up 39.7 percent from what was exported in 2012, the data also showed, indicating that the North sold the coal to China at cheaper prices last year.

In December alone last year, the North shipped $118.06 million worth of anthracite, almost the same amount as November’s $121.45 million.

This means North Korea continued anthracite exports to China after executing leader Kim Jong-un’s once-powerful uncle Jang Song-thaek in early December for allegedly attempting to overthrow the regime and committing anti-state crimes, including selling North Korean natural resources abroad at excessively low prices.

North Korea’s anthracite exports are one of its major income sources and China is virtually the only destination for the shipments.

Read the full story here:
N. Korea’s coal exports to China up 15.1 pct in 2013
Yonhap
2014-1-24

UPDATE 2 (2014-1-21): According to Yonhap:

The number of North Korean visitors to China rose about 11 percent on-year to top 200,000 for the first time in 2013, Chinese government data showed Tuesday, in the latest sign that the flow of people between the allies was unaffected by geopolitical tensions.

About 206,600 North Koreans traveled to China last year, compared with 186,000 in 2012, the data from China’s National Tourism Administration showed.

It was the first time that the annual number of North Korean tourists to China exceeded 200,000 since the Chinese tourism administration began releasing data in 2005.

NK News reports additional data:

93,300 work visas were given to North Korean citizens[.]

Goeffrey See comments that part of the increase can be explained by repeat travelers.

Read the full story here:
N. Korean tourists to China rise 11 pct in 2013
Yonhap
2014-1-21

Work visas for North Koreans going to China up 17.2%
NK News
Oliver Hoffman
2014-1-21

UPDATE 1 (2013-7-18): According to the Japan Times:

The overall number of visitors to China dropped 5.2 percent to 12.75 million in the six-month period.

But North Korean visitors to China increased 11.7 percent to 99,100, the highest since 2005 on a first-half basis.

Nearly half of the North Koreans came to China to work, mainly at factories and restaurants. These North Koreans are low-cost labor for China, while the data signal that North Korea continues to actively use its manpower to earn foreign currency.

Read More here:
China sees 26% fewer Japanese visitors in first half but North Korean arrivals up by 12%
Japan Times
2013-7-18

ORIGINAL POST (2013-4-26): Number of DPRK visitors to China up 14% in first quarter 2013. According to Yonhap:

About 45,800 North Koreans traveled to China, the North’s closest ally, in the January-March period, compared with 40,200 recorded in the same period in 2012, according to the report by the Washington-based Voice of America (VOA), which cited data from China.

The increase is seen as showing that North Korea-China relations have not been disturbed by China’s recent shift to take an active role in implementing the U.N. sanctions against the North, adopted following the country’s December rocket launch and its third nuclear test on Feb. 12.

The majority of the North Korean travelers to China, 48.3 percent, crossed the border to work in the world’s second-biggest economy and 25.8 percent went there for business purposes, according to the report. Only 1.5 percent were on trips to China for tourism.

Out of the total visitors, 78 percent were male North Koreans while 44.5 percent of the total were aged between 45 and 64.

Read the full story here:
Number of N. Korean visitors to China up 14 pct in Q1
Yonhap
2013-4-26

According to Yonhap:

North Korea received record-low food aid from the United Nations food agency in 2013 due to sluggish contributions from the international community, a media report said Wednesday.

Some 38,000 tons of food were delivered from the World Food Program (WFP) to the impoverished communist country in 2013, some 30 percent of the agency’s target for the year, according to the Washington-based Radio Free Asia (RFA).

It was less than half the amount sent in the previous year and the smallest since 1996 when the agency began helping the North, the report said, adding it was attributable to the WFP’s failure to raise enough funds to achieve the goal.

The amount of the U.N. agency’s food aid to the North has been fluctuating from some 136,000 tons in 2008, 50,000 tons in 2010, 100,000 tons in 2011 and 84,000 tons in 2012, according to WFP data.

Citing its dark fund-raising prospects in 2014, the WFP told the RFA that most of its factories for producing nutrition biscuits for the people there were on the verge of shutting down in February.

The daily food rations for the people in the North came to some 400 grams per person last year, far lower than the minimum recommended amount of 600 grams and the North Korean regime’s target amount of 573 grams, the WFP said.

North Korea’s food production is estimated to have been at about 5.03 million metric tons in 2013, up 5 percent from the previous year, according to the WFP report posted on its website.

The food security situation, however, is still serious, with 84 percent of all households having borderline or poor food consumption, it added.

The North’s leader Kim Jong-un put an emphasis on food production in his New Year’s message last week, saying “all efforts should go for agriculture … in order to build a strong economy and to improve the people’s livelihoods.”

Here is the UNFAO November 2013 food security assessment.

Here is additional analysis from Benjamin Silberstein.

Here are previous posts on “Food“, “Agriculture“, “International Aid“, “International Aid Statistics“.

Read the full story here:
WFP’s food aid to N. Korea hits all-time low in 2013
Yonhap
2014-1-8

UPDATE 1 (2014-1-13): Yonhap reports on the 2013 defection numbers:

The [Ministry of Unification], which handles inter-Korean affairs, said a total of 1,516 North Koreans settled in South Korea in 2013, up slightly from 2012 when 1,502 North Koreans arrived in the South, with women accounting for 76 percent of the total.

The ministry said South Korea is now home to 26,124 North Koreans.

And according to the Daily NK:

A total of 1516 North Koreans sought refuge in South Korea last year, bringing the total number of defectors living in the South to 26,124, 69% of whom are female.

ORIGINAL POST (2014-1-2): The Hankyoreh offers some decent data on DPRK defectors entering South Korea in 2013:

An estimated 1,500 North Korean refugees entered South Korea in 2013.

The estimate, which is roughly equivalent to the 2012 total, shows that the number has dwindled to less than 2,000 annually for the two years since Kim Jong-un took power in Pyongyang.

According to a Dec. 25 announcement by the Ministry of Unification, a total of 1,420 refugees had received protection authorization following government questioning as of November 2013. When the individuals currently undergoing questioning are factored in, the total number of refugees entering the country for the year is expected to be around 1,500 – roughly equivalent to the 1,502 refugees who came to South Korea in 2012.

The number would bring the total refugees arriving since the 1990s up to 26,100. The annual tally of refugees passed 2,000 for the first time in 2006. For five years, it remained in the 2,000 to 3,000 range, with 2,548 in 2007, 2,805 in 2008, 2,929 in 2009, 2,402 in 2010, and 2,706 in 2011.

But in 2012, the year the Kim Jong-un regime took over, the total fell to 1,500 a year, a drop of approximately 500 to 1,500.

Analysts said the decrease under the Kim regime was likely tied to stronger border defense aimed at securing the regime, along with more aggressive anti-defection policies, including actions to repatriate those who crossed the border.

Indeed, North Korea is known to have markedly stepped up its border defense since just after the 2011 death of Kim’s father and predecessor Kim Jong-il.

Another possible reason given for the drop was an improvement in food and economic conditions in North Korea in 2012 and 2013.

Meanwhile, North Korea continues to adopt a proactive policy of readmitting refugees who left for South Korea. In 2013 alone, thirteen defected opted to leave the South to return to the North.

While I am perfectly willing to admit that some DPRK defectors living in the ROK might have returned home, I believe it is not accurate to assert “thirteen defected opted to leave the South to return to the North” without mentioning that the DPRK has the ability to threaten family members who remained in the North to draw defectors back to the land of their birth.

Read the full story here:
Total number has dipped since Kim Jong-un took power due to tighter border control and N. Korea welcoming some refugees back
Hankyoreh
Kim Kyu-won
2014-1-2

Yonhap announced that the ROK is allowing private aid groups to send goods to the DPRK. The article also mentions the total volume of the ROK’s official and private assistance to the DPRK in 2013.

According to the article:

South Korea endorsed private humanitarian aid to North Korea on Monday, an official said, in the latest assistance to Pyongyang despite lingering tensions on the Korean Peninsula.

The two private aid groups are allowed to ship nutritional and medical supplies worth 240 million won (US$227,000) to infants, children and people suffering tuberculosis in the North, unification ministry spokesman Kim Eyi-do told reporters.

The planned aid brought the total amount of assistance to the North by South Korea’s private aid groups to 6.8 billion won since February when President Park Geun-hye took office in Seoul.

South Korea has also shipped aid worth 13.5 billion won to the North through international organizations since February.

All posts on South Korean assistance to the DPRK in 2013 can be found here.

All posts on aid to the DPRK can be found here.

All posts on aid to the DPRK that have statistics can be found here.

Read the full story here:
S. Korea approves private humanitarian aid to N. Korea
Yonhap
2013-12-30