North Korean Economy Watch

North Korea Intellectuals Solidarity has reported that Kim Jong-un is carrying out a purge of local officials to cement his ascention to power.  According to the AFP:

North Korea’s young heir apparent has launched a purge of senior party and military officials in an apparent attempt to cement his grip on power, a North Korean defectors’ group said Wednesday.

Pyongyang this month began a crackdown on senior officials suspected of corruption, starting in Musan county in the northeastern province of North Hamkyong, said the Seoul-based North Korea Intellectuals Solidarity.

A spokesman said the information came from North Korean sources whom he described as senior party officials closely connected with the investigation.

“About 15 heavyweight officials, many of them military, are being investigated for turning a blind eye to people fleeing the country and being involved in smuggling activities,” the spokesman told AFP.

He said the investigation was being led by Kim Jong-Un, youngest son and chosen successor to leader Kim Jong-Il.

The crackdown, which would be expanded into a nationwide campaign, was a “politically-motivated purge” aimed at replacing longstanding military members with younger officials more loyal to Jong-Un, said the spokesman.

“This is a purge for generational change… senior officials are trembling with fear because they don’t know where heads are going to roll,” he said.

Seoul’s intelligence agency declined to comment on the report.

The Kim dynasty, which has ruled the communist country with an iron fist for more than six decades, has long used purges to maintain its grip on power.

Founding president Kim Il-Sung reportedly executed hundreds of dissidents during the early years of his leadership and often persecuted senior officials showing signs of rebelliousness.

Kim Jong-Il, after taking over from his father, is known to have executed several hundred soldiers for showing “suspicious movements”, Wednesday’s Chosun Ilbo newspaper reported.

Jong-Un, believed to be aged 27, was made a general and given powerful party posts at the country’s largest political gathering for 30 years in September.

Kim Jong-Il, 68, is believed to be accelerating preparations for another hereditary power transfer due to worsening health after he suffered a stroke in 2008.

Additional Information
1. The Korea Times also reported this story.

2. Previously the Daily NK reported a reorganization of the DPRK’s external patronage networks.

Read the full story here:
N.Korea heir apparent purges officials: defectors
AFP
11/17/2010

According to the Daily NK:

A number of criminals judged to have committed their crimes due to poverty were granted an amnesty in commemoration of the 65th anniversary of the Workers’ Party founding in September, in a move characterized as being a result of Kim Jong Eun’s boundless consideration for the North Korean people. However, this has led to serious adverse effects.

A Daily NK source reported on the 12th that, upon a decision of the Standing Committee of the Supreme People’s Assembly, the North Korean authorities reduced the prison terms of around 150,000 criminals across the country in the amnesty, entitled “On the reduction of prison terms for prisoners in commemoration of the 65th anniversary of the Party founding and the Party Delegates’ Conference.”

For example, around 1,500 out of 2,100 prisoners in No. 12 Reeducation Camp under the Reform Department of the People’s Safety Ministry in Pungsan-ri, formerly Jeongeo-ri, Hoiryeong, North Hamkyung Province had their sentences reduced.

According to the source, “Around 250 prisoners were released and three special contributors had their sentences reduced by four years, 20 model prisoners by three years, and around 1,500 other general prisoners by two years.”

He added, “Only violent offenders (robbers, murderers and rapists) sentenced under article 141 of the Penal Code and human trafficking offenders (defector-related offences) under article 117 of the Penal Code were excluded.”

After the head of the camp announced the list of prisoners who would benefit, he reportedly added, “Those who are being released and having their sentences reduced should feel deeply the consideration of the Youth Captain,” going on to say, “The consideration given by the Party is not a gift sent equally to everybody, but only to those who have done well, and gives more consideration to them.”

Generally, amnesties in North Korea are undertaken on every fifth birthday of Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il and the founding day of the Party, ratified by Kim Jong Il after the Standing Committee of the SPA submits a proposal to him. The 12 reeducation camps under the PSM then decide the scale of the amnesty, depending on the size of the prison population.

However, the amnesties can have undesirable consequences, and this one is no different; the PSM has been reportedly devoting itself to filling up the empty camps, because each camp contains production units.

The source said, “The PSM was concentrating on criminal investigations even before the official announcement of the amnesty, because they had received indications of the decree. With the help of the Prosecutors’ Office, they caught a lot of people and kept them in detention centers, then after the announcement they started putting them in camps.”

“In 2002, commemorating the 60th birthday of the General (Kim Jong Il), although around 30 percent of the prisoners in each camp were released, the same amount of prisoners filled the former prisoners’ places.”

The 12 reeducation camps in North Korea each have unique production facilities. In the No. 12 Camp in Hoiryeong, for example, there is a wooden goods factory, copper mine, dressing plant, limestone mine and farms. Defectors suggest that the profits from these factories cover 80% of the management costs of the PSM.

The camps can be found all over the country including Pyongyang, Kaechoen and Sariwon in South Pyongan Province, Deokwon in Kangwon Province, Hamheung and Hoiryeong.

Read the full story here:
Kim Jong Eun’s “Magnanimous” Amnesty
Daily NK
Im Jeong Jin
11/13/2010

UPDATE: Using North Korean television footage, I mapped out Jo Myong-rok’s funeral procession route on Google Earth.

The procession began at the Central Worker’s Hall (home of the General Federation of Trade Unions of Korea) where the VMAR’s wake was held:

The procession then traveled west to the Potong Gate (near Sojang Hall where state funerals are normally held) and then north to the Patriotic Martyr’s Cemetary. 

Jo Myong-rok was bruied in the front row of the cemetary in one of the empty spots.

I wonder which two individuals will be buried next to him?  Judging from the satellite imagery, it appers this cemetary is being expanded for additional martyrs.  I wonder what the criteria are to be buried here.  

Here is the story in KCNA.

ORIGINAL POST: According to KCNA (11/6/2010):

Vice Marshal of the Korean People’s Army Jo Myong Rok, member of the Presidium of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Workers’ Party of Korea, first vice-chairman of the DPRK National Defence Commission and deputy to the Supreme People’s Assembly, died of an inveterate heart disease at 10:30 a.m. on Nov. 6, Juche 99 (2010) at the age of 82 to our sorrow.

Born into a poor peasant’s family in Yonsa County, North Hamgyong Province on July 12, Juche 17 (1928) Jo Myong Rok was a revolutionary comrade loyal to General Secretary Kim Jong Il and a prominent activist of the WPK, the state and the army of the DPRK who devoted his whole life to the sacred struggle for the freedom and independence of the country and the victory of the cause of socialism.

He grew up to be an able military and political official under the care of the party and the leader after the country’s liberation.

He worked for years at important posts of the party, the state and the army.

In the period of the hard-fought Fatherland Liberation War against the U.S. imperialists’ armed invasion he bravely fought as a pilot of the KPA for the victory in the war. He worked hard for the development of the air force, holding posts of squadron commander, group commander and divisional commander of an air unit and the chief of the staff and commander of the air force of the KPA in the post-war period.

Holding important posts as the director of the General Political Bureau of the KPA from October, Juche 84 (1995) and first vice- chairman of the DPRK National Defence Commission from September, Juche 87 (1998), he energetically worked to thoroughly implement the Juche-oriented military line of the WPK and firmly guarantee the building of a thriving nation and the victory of the revolutionary cause of Juche with matchless military power.

He was elected alternate member of the C.C., the WPK in November, Juche 64 (1975), member of the C.C., the WPK and member of the Central Military Commission of the WPK in October, Juche 69 (1980) and member of the Presidium of the Political Bureau of the C.C., the WPK in September, Juche 99 (2010) and worked as a deputy to the Supreme People’s Assembly from the sixth Supreme People’s Assembly held in November, Juche 66 (1977).

He was awarded Order of Kim Il Sung, the highest order of the DPRK, the titles of Hero of the DPRK and Labour Hero and many other orders and medals including Order of National Flag First Class and Order of Freedom and Independence First Class for the distinguished feats he performed for the party and the revolution, the country and its people.

He received the title of vice marshal of the KPA in October, Juche 84 (1995).

An obituary of Jo Myong Rok was jointly issued by the C.C., the WPK, the Central Military Commission of the WPK, the DPRK National Defence Commission and the Presidium of the DPRK Supreme People’s Assembly on Saturday.

The obituary said that his death is a great loss to the party, the army and people of the DPRK waging a dynamic struggle to win the victory of the cause of building a thriving socialist nation and bring earlier the independent reunification of the country. Though he passed away, the exploits he performed for the party and the revolution, the country and its people will shine long along with the victorious advance of the revolutionary cause of Juche, it stressed.

On the same day, the C.C., the WPK, the Central Military Commission of the WPK, the DPRK National Defence Commission and the Presidium of the DPRK Supreme People’s Assembly announced that the late Jo Myong Rok would be accorded a state funeral and formed a state funeral committee with Kim Jong Il as its chairman and Kim Jong Un and 169 others as its members.

The state funeral committee informed the public that the bier of the deceased would be placed in the Central Hall of Workers, it would receive mourners from 10:00 on Nov. 8 to 18:00 on Nov. 9 and the hearse would leave the hall at 9 a.m. on Nov. 10.

KCNA also reports (11/8/2010):

Leading officials of the state and armed forces organs Monday visited the bier of Vice Marshal of the Korean People’s Army Jo Myong Rok, member of the Presidium of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Workers’ Party of Korea, first vice-chairman of the National Defense Commission of the DPRK and deputy to the Supreme People’s Assembly, to express deep condolences over his death.

Seen standing before the bier of the late Jo Myong Rok was a wreath sent by Kim Jong Il, general secretary of the Workers’ Party of Korea, chairman of the DPRK National Defence Commission and supreme commander of the Korean People’s Army.

Also seen standing before the bier were wreaths sent by the C.C., the WPK, the Central Military Commission of the WPK, the NDC of the DPRK, the Presidium of the Supreme People’s Assembly of the DPRK, the DPRK Cabinet and the Ministry of the People’s Armed Forces.

Among the mourners were Choe Yong Rim, Jon Pyong Ho, Pyon Yong Rip, Kim Rak Hui, Kim Chang Sop, Ri Ha Il, anti-Japanese veteran fighters Ri Ul Sol and Kim Chol Man, and Kim Yong Dae, chairman of the C.C., the Korean Social Democratic Party, and Ryu Mi Yong, chairperson of the C.C., the Chondoist Chongu Party.

They observed a moment’s silence in memory of the late Jo Myong Rok and expressed deep condolences to the bereaved families of the deceased.

On the same day officials of armed forces organs including the NDC and the Ministry of the People’s Armed Forces, servicepersons of KPA and the Korean People’s Internal Security Forces, officials of the party and power organs, working people’s organizations, ministries and national institutions, working people from all walks of life, the diplomatic corps and the military attaches corps here and overseas Koreans visited the Central Hall of Workers where the bier of the deceased was placed and expressed condolences over his death.

Additional Information:
1. Michael Madden has additional information on the VMAR here and here.

2. The media is highlighting that Kim Jong-un has been named after his father as a member of the state funeral committee.  See here and here.

3. To see a satellite image of the Central Worker’s Hall click here.  This will be the first funeral to be held in this facility since at least 1996.  As far as I can tell this is the first funeral to be held there.

4. Most other state funerals are conducted in Sojang Hall in Potonggang District (Satellite image here).  See a previous post I wrote about the geography of DPRK state funerals here.

According ot the Daily NK:

The rapid ascent of Kim Jong Eun and the building of a new ruling cast in Pyongyang is causing ripples to be felt in North Korea’s foreign currency earning apparatus. In Beijing, it is clear that anyone considered a supporter of Kim Jong Nam or Oh Keuk Ryul faces a rough ride.

One of the most prominent cases is that of Kang, a pro-Kim Jong Nam foreign currency earner who has distinguished himself in various ways, including by installing air conditioning in the Mansudae Assembly Hall. He is noteworthy among North Korea trade workers in China, and was mentioned in articles released by The Daily NK in June on the subject of emergency inspections over North Korean trade departments.

According to the testimony of Kang’s acquaintances, Kang was supposedly summoned to Pyongyang in early July, whereupon he was violently beaten by agents of the National Security Agency. The alleged reason behind the summons was that Kang was guilty of embezzling national assets and corruption; however, trade workers in China generally assume that it was a part of systematically “taking care” of Kim Jong Nam‘s closest associates.

In North Korean diplomatic circles in Beijing, the general interpretation is that Kim Jong Nam‘s outspoken negativity towards North Korea‘s third generation succession has helped to bring trouble upon his supporters.

One Chinese building contractor, Jwa, who sells construction materials to North Korean traders, commented, “Kang pledged allegiance to Kim Jong Nam and received a lot of favors as his affiliate. But a battle between Kim Jong Eun and Kim Jong Nam is taking place, and trade workers are suffering.”

However, the more surprising fact was the return of Kang to Beijing in October. It is highly unusual for someone from a privileged office to be so severely “investigated” by the National Security Agency but then return to their former seat in a foreign trade office.

According to one of Kang’s acquaintances, this was down to the fact that he is actually the person in charge of the North Korean Liaison Office in Beijing.

One Chinese trader who has done business directly with Kang told The Daily NK, “Kang, who is well known as a famous trade worker, was really in charge of North Korean maneuvers for more than ten years while maintaining the identity of a trade worker. This fact has been confirmed through several sources.”

However, South Korean intelligence has neither confirmed nor denied Kang’s true role.

The North Korean Liaison Office is an organization said to be responsible for maneuvers against South Korea, and is thought to have pulled the strings in the South Korean Chosun Workers‘ Party incident of 1992, in which the largest spy ring since the liberation was uncovered, that of Kim Dong Sik, an armed espionage agent arrested in 1995, Choi Jung Nam and Kang Yeon Jung, an agent couple who committed suicide in 1997, the assassination of Lee Han Young, Kim Jong Il’s nephew, in 1997, and the 2006 Ilsimheo spy ring incident.

Mr. Kang also owns a well-appointed villa, recent sedan and VIP membership of the fitness center at a five-star hotel.

Generally, North Korean employees abroad have to leave one of their children in Pyongyang as what can only be described as hostages to loyalty. However, the testimony of Kang’s acquaintances states that he is permitted to live in Beijing with his wife, daughter and son, who has studied in England. This is due to Kim Jong Nam’s full support, an extraordinary level of operational funding and the superior status of a person in charge of a covert operation.

He has avoided being outright purged, despite the fact that he is an affiliate of Kim Jong Nam, thanks to the fact that he is the person in charge of operations against the South. However, other trade workers in China who are also affiliated with Kim Jong Nam are desperate to forge new connections in Pyongyang to secure their positions, and, as such, many seem to have been absorbed by the Jang Sung Taek camp.

Other overseas officials are also on the back foot. Not only are affiliates of Kim Jong Nam being called into Pyongyang, but affiliates of Oh Keuk Ryul, a Vice Chairman of the National Defense Commission who is also actively involved in bringing foreign capital into North Korea in de facto competition with Jang Sung Taek, are also being summoned. Oh Keuk Ryul was shut out of the recent process of realigning the Chosun Workers’ Party and has lost a lot of his former influence as a result.

North Korean foreign trade departments are a target of veneration within North Korea. However, trade workers must strive to preserve their status with bribes like supplies which are hard to find within North Korea or large amounts of money. Now the dynamic is changing, so it is proving difficult to preserve their desirable positions.

Read the full story here:
Traders Living in Fear of Pyongyang Summons
Daily NK
Shin Joo-hyun
11/8/2010

According to the Daily NK:

The North Korean state media has stepped up the level of its Kim Jong Eun propaganda in an attempt to stamp his identity in the minds of the North Korean people.

According to a report carried by Chosun Central News Agency, Rodong Shinmun was expanded to ten pages on November 4th to include a full-page spread about Kim Jong Il and Jong Eun’s onsite inspection of Heecheon Power Plant in South Pyongan Province.

Rodong Shinmun normally covers six pages, although important events regularly lead to it being expanded.

On the first and second pages of the Heechon Power Plant edition there were photos and commentary about the inspection; the remaining pages contained nothing but photos.

Chosun Central TV also reported the news of the onsite inspection at around 5:10P.M. on the same day, and, in a highly unusual move, simultaneously released 145 pages of related images.

Of them, 86 were of Kim Jong Il and/or Kim Jong Eun, and 59 were of power plant facilities; 13 of 45 showed father and son together; and 8 showed only Kim Jong Eun, who appeared in the same style and color of overcoat as his father.

This is the second time this year that Rodong Shinmun has been expanded to report one of Kim’s onsite inspections while completely excluding other news; his onsite inspection at Ryongseong Food Factory and Pyongyang Flour Factory was released over 12 pages on January 24th.

The newspaper has also been expanded to more than ten pages in order to report Kim Jong Il’s public activities in detail alongside other news on a number of further occasions during 2010: an onsite inspection at Kim Il Sung University electronic library on April 13 covered eight of ten pages; another at Ryongseong Machinery Factory in Hamheung on May 22 took up nine of ten; Goksan Factory in Pyongyang on August 26 required six of ten; and the Party Delegates’ Conference on September 29 took up eight of ten.

Heecheon Power Plant, which is designed to generate 300,000kW of power, is under construction in the upper reaches of the Cheongcheon River. It is scheduled to be completed in 2012 alongside other “Strong and Prosperous State” construction projects including that of 100,000 houses in Pyongyang.

In addition, the Daily NK reports that the DPRK media is using honorific words to describe KJU.

North Korea’s state media has begun to apply the highest form of honorific speech to Kim Jong Eun’s name and descriptions of his movements, according to a Radio Press report released yesterday.

According to Radio Press, while broadcasting the movements of Kim Jong Il on October 27th, a Chosun Central Television announcer explained that a Chinese delegation had “given a gift to Chosun Workers’ Party Central Military Commission Vice Chairman, Comrade Kim Jong Eun”, using both the highest form of “to” and “give” available in the Korean language.

In addition, on the 29th of last month both Chosun Central Television and Pyongyang Broadcast announced the fact that the international media had reported the presence of Kim Jong Eun and Kim Jong Il at a mass rally with the highest form of “to” and by amending the verb “to attend” to reflect the esteem with which the successor is officially held..

Hitherto, only three people in North Korea have been spoken of in this way; national founder Kim Il Sung, son Kim Jong Il and Kim Jong Il’s mother, Kim Jong Suk.

This method of referring to Kim Jong Eun appears to represent an important part of ongoing attempts by the authorities to idolize and elevate the successor’s status, while seeming also to reflect the speed with which the succession process is being undertaken.

Read the full stories here:
Cover-to-Cover Kim in Rodong Shinmun
Daily NK
11/5/2010

North Korean Media Speaking of Kim Jong Eun in Honorifics
Daily NK
Kim Tae Hong
11/4/2010

According to the Daily NK:

It has been confirmed by The Daily NK that North Korea failed in a recent attempt to import beef from New Zealand for the purpose of providing special gifts to cadres on Kim Jong Eun’s birthday, January 8, after the plan ran afoul of the New Zealand government, which froze the funds.

According to a source from North Korea today, “$170,000 remitted by ‘Myohyang Bureau’ to a New Zealand bank in October to import parts for Japanese tourist buses and beef has been frozen by the New Zealand authorities.”

The source added, “The New Zealand authorities are investigating whether or not the money is related to (North Korea’s) drug dealing.”

The source explained, “The beef is for special distribution to cadres on the Youth Captain (Kim Jong Eun)’s birthday, while the parts of Japanese buses are to repair buses operated by the Tour Bureau,” adding, “Myohyang Bureau is alarmed that there might be a snag in Comrade Youth Captain’s birthday special distribution.”

In North Korea, workplaces have already started to prepare presents for Kim Jong Eun’s birthday. There are two types of presents: the first is from cadres to Kim Jong Eun; and the latter is special distribution to cadres in Kim Jong Eun’s name. However, even though the special distribution is like a gift handed out by a monarch, factories and Party organs have to prepare it. According to the source, the Myohyang Bureau’s duty this time is to supply beef.

The Myohyang Bureau is directly in charge of tour events including Arirang performance-related tours and Mt. Baekdu and Geumgang tours. It sends the profits from these businesses involving foreign tourists to the No. 39 Department of the Central Committee of the Party.

The source explained further, “Due to Japanese sanctions against North Korea, the Tour Bureau has not been able to obtain parts for Japanese buses, so the Myohyang Bureau asked a New Zealand business partner to obtain them for them. In doing that, they also asked for beef.”

“Since the Myohyang Bureau sent the money via a secret bank account held with a bank in Latvia to a bank in New Zealand, it incurred the suspicion of the New Zealand government. Money is still money, but the bigger problem is to expose the Latvian account.”

This is the first time that a Latvian account has been linked to North Korea, adding to known secret accounts in Switzerland, China, Macau and the Caribbean.

The source said, “The Myohyang Bureau opened the account in the name, ‘RUSKOR International Company Ltd’ in a bank of Latvia,” adding, “The account name is the connecting of the words Russia and Korea.”

“Gift rations” have been in the news a lot lately.  Links to previous posts about the DPRK’s “gift rations” can be found here.

Read the full story here:
North Korean Funds for Beef Frozen by New Zealand
Daily NK
Park In Ho
11/5/2010

Back in February, B.R. Myers, author of The Cleanest Race, gave a few talks in the US.  Apparently I missed all of them.

Luckily, C-Span recorded the one of the discussions for us all to see.  It is well worth watching in its entirety here.

You can order the book at Amazon here.

(hat tip to a reader)

Andrei Lankov wites in the Korea Times:

One of the major sensations widely discussed in the international media in the last few weeks was an interview Japanese TV journalists managed to arrange with Kim Jong-nam, the oldest son of Kim Jong-il.

The interview, which took place in Beijing, was interesting, indeed. Kim Jong-nam promised to help his brother who was recently promoted (obviously, to succeed Kim Jong-il in due time), but he also said something unusual for someone in his position.

He said that, basically, he opposed the idea of hereditary succession as such. Such a statement, coming from a member of the ruling family, attracted much attention, and people began to talk about a power struggle which is brewing inside the Kim family. It might be premature, though: Kim Jong-nam’s statements might reflect his rather unusual personality and life circumstances.

So, who is Kim Jong-nam, what is known about the (rather complicated) family relations of the “Dear Leader” and why does it all matter?

Kim Jong-il’s personal life was hectic, as he sired children with a number of women. To give him his due, he has shown himself to be a caring father and a good partner as well as an exemplary ex. All of his former girlfriends (it seems that he has never bothered to go through a formal marriage procedure) are taken good care of ― at the expense of the starving North Korean farmers, of course.

Kim Jong-il has three known sons and one or two daughters. The oldest son is Kim Jong-nam who was born by Song Hye-rim, a star of North Korean cinema of the 1960s. This union was never approved by Kim Il-sung, and in the mid-1970s Song was shipped to a comfortable exile to Moscow where she died in 2002. Kim Jong-nam, though, remained a darling of his father and until recently was seen as the most likely possible successor.

However, from around 2001 it became clear that he had some problems in Pyongyang. It is frequently stated that his troubles were connected with a bizarre episode in 2001 when he was arrested by Japanese immigration while trying to enter Japan with a fake Dominican passport with two women (obviously, his girlfriend and her maid) and a child. There are good reasons to doubt this, though. Kim Jung-nam visited Japan frequently before the 2001 incident, and it is not unusual for a North Korean dignitary to use a fake ID. So, the disgrace might have been related to something else ― perhaps, to Kim Jong-nam’s strained relations with his father’s new wife, Ko Yong-hui (she is dead now, too).

Ko Yong-hui, a Japan-born dancer, bore two sons. The eldest is Kim Jong-chol who reputably has some health conditions which make him a bad choice for a successor. The second is Kim Jong-un who was recently confirmed (well, almost confirmed) as the successor.

Since 2000 Kim Jong-nam has lived overseas, visiting his native country infrequently. His major home is the city of Macao which is not incidental: since the 1980s Macao was widely used for money transfers and money laundering by North Korean agencies. Therefore, Kim Jong-nam is often said to be a banker and the financial manager of the Kim family. This is not for sure, but he clearly enjoys the expensive lifestyle of a successful international businessman.

Another peculiarity of Kim Jong-nam is his relative openness to foreign media: once intercepted by foreign journalists, he is cheerful and handles the conversation with great skill. Such encounters, though, were never too long: the recent Asahi interview which lasted six minutes is by far the longest (and also by far the most interesting) so far.

Kim Jong-nam is often said to have special relations with Chinese authorities. It must have been the case, indeed: the present author noticed that Chinese officials and official scholars tend to talk about him with great respect. One also suspects that the Chinese have gathered much intelligence on him ― including the type of intelligence he might not be happy about.

At the same time, his experiences make him deeply suspicious to the Pyongyang elite. Kim Jong-nam has lived overseas way too long, and his connections with China are not welcome in Pyongyang where China is seen not only as a useful donor but also as a potential threat. In other words, Kim Jong-nam has little chance to succeed if he gets involved in domestic politics.

So far, it seems that he has different goals in mind. He is often seen in expensive hotels, sometimes in the company of gorgeous ladies. He enjoys a privileged lifestyle, and perhaps even understands that staying away from North Korean politics is the surest way to have an enjoyable, long life, with little stress and dying a natural death at a ripe old age.

Read the full story here:
Kim Jong-nam ― the failed heir
Korea Times
Andrei Lankov
10/24/2010

(h/t to Leonid Petrov) Aidan Foster-Carter wrote an interesting article for the Asia Times.  Below is the last paragraph:

Even in Pyongyang the mask is slipping. The WPK conference and subsequent military parade seem to have passed off smoothly, but dissent is growing. One recent visiting group (which included a Korean-speaker) heard a full-scale row between their guides – it was evening, and drink had been taken – as to what right Kim Jong-eun had to be foisted on them as leader. That is still dangerous talk; but many more will be thinking it. The young general has much to prove, and may not have long to do so. Interesting times.

The full article is well worth reading here:
For the Kims, the weakest link is family
Asia Times
Aidan Foster-Carter
10/22/2010

Victor Cha writes in the Washington Post:

The real problem is the system itself. Even if the young Kim is enlightened, there are three obstacles to reform. First, despotic regimes such as North Korea’s cannot survive without an ideology to justify their iron grip. And the ideology that accompanies the son’s rise appears to look backward rather than forward.

I call it “neojuche revivalism.” It is a return to the conservative and hard-line “juche” (self-reliance) ideology of the 1950s and ’60s, harking back to a day when the North was doing well relative to South Korea. Neojuche revivalism is laced with “songun” (military-first) ideology, which features the North’s emergence as a nuclear weapons state (Kim Jong Il’s one accomplishment during his rule). This revivalist ideology leaves no room for an opening-up, because it blames the past decade of poor performance on “ideological pollution” stemming from experiments with reform.

Second, true reform in the post-Kim Jong Il era would require the courage to loosen the political instruments of control that allow the regime to keep its iron grip on the people. The dilemma the young Kim faces is that he needs to reform to survive, but the process of opening up will undeniably lead to the end of his political control. This was perhaps the most important lesson North Korea learned from the end of the Cold War.

Finally, even if Kim Jong Eun is an enlightened leader who has the courage to attempt such reform, he will be dealing with a generation of institutions and people who are the most isolated in North Korean history. The generals, party officials and bureaucrats of the Cold War era were far more worldly than those of the post-Cold War years. Kim Il Sung’s generation was able to travel freely to East Bloc countries. Kim used to vacation with Communist leaders such as East Germany’s Erich Honecker and Romania’s Nicolae Ceausescu. By contrast, Kim Jong Il’s generation saw Ceausescu executed and the Chinese Communist Party almost lose power in Tiananmen Square. The generation of leadership the young son will inherit sees nothing comforting about the outside world.

The full article is worth reading here:
Without a loosened grip, reform will elude North Korea
Washington Post
Victor Cha
10/15/2010