Archive for the ‘Korea Trade-Investment Promotion Agency (KOTRA)’ Category
According to Yonhap, DPRK-China trade drops slightly in 2014:
North Korea’s annual trade with its economic lifeline, China, fell 2.4 percent from a year ago in 2014, marking the first decline since 2009, data compiled by South Korea’s government trade agency showed Monday.
North Korea’s trade with China totaled US$6.39 billion last year, compared with $6.54 billion in 2013, according to the data provided by the Beijing unit of South’s Korea Trade and Investment Promotion Agency (KOTRA).
The annual trade figures between North Korea and China provided a fresh sign that strained political ties between the two nations have affected their economic relations.
At least on paper, there were also no shipments of crude oil from China to North Korea for all of last year.
A South Korean diplomatic source with knowledge of the matter, however, cautioned against reading too much into the official trade figures because China has provided crude oil to North Korea in the form of grant aid and such shipments were not recorded on paper.
I have been unable to locate the KOTRA report, but the Choson Ilbo adds this:
China’s exports to the North were down 3.1 percent on-year and its imports from the North 1.5 percent, the diplomatic source in Beijing said quoting Chinese trade statistics.
Yonhap followed up with this from a Chinese foreign ministry press briefing:
Asked about the official absence of crude oil delivery to North Korea, China’s foreign ministry spokeswoman, Hua Chunying, referred the question to “competent authorities.”
“You mentioned a specific issue concerning trade between China and North Korea. I would like to refer you to competent authorities,” Hua told reporters during a regular press briefing.
“But, I want to highlight that the economic cooperation and trade between China and North Korea are normal,” Hua said.
Yonhap also provided the following information on oil shipments from China to the DPRK:
In previous years, China’s official shipments of crude oil to North Korea had been absent for several months, particularly after the North’s nuclear tests. However, it was extremely unusual that, at least on paper, China sold no crude oil to North Korea for all of last year.
In 2014, China’s exports of petroleum products to North Korea jumped 48.22 percent from a year earlier to US$1.54 million, according to the data based on Chinese trade statistics and compiled by the Beijing unit of South’s Korea Trade and Investment Promotion Agency.
“Although final statistics show that China’s exports of crude oil to North Korea were counted as ‘zero’ in 2014, experts suggest that the possibility of China’s suspension of crude oil exports to North Korea remains low,” the agency said in a statement.
South Korean diplomatic sources in Beijing have also cautioned against reading too much into the official Chinese trade figures because China has provided crude oil to North Korea in the form of grant aid and such shipments were not recorded on paper.
There has been no clear indication that the 2014 trade figures reflect China’s willingness to use crude oil as leverage to press North Korea to change course in its nuclear ambition.
Yonhap (via Korea Times) also reports that anthracite exports to China are down in 2014:
North Korea’s exports of anthracite to China tumbled nearly 18 percent in 2014 from the previous year, the first annual drop in eight years, data showed Friday.
North Korea exported US$1.13 billion worth of anthracite to China last year, down 17.6 percent from a year earlier, according to data from the Korea International Trade Association.
It was the first on-year decline in North Korea’s anthracite exports to China since 2006.
The volume of anthracite exports also decreased 6.4 percent on-year to 15.43 million tons last year, according to the KITA.
Despite the drop, anthracite accounted for 39.8 percent of North Korea’s total exports to China in 2014.
According to the data, North Korea’s exports of iron ore to China plunged 25.7 percent on-year to $218.6 million last year, the smallest amount since 2010.
For lots more data on the DPRK’s international trade, see also these eight great posts:
1. North Korea-China Trade Update: Coal Retreats, Textiles Surge
2. How Has the Commodity Bust Affected North Korea’s Trade Balance? (Part 1)
3. How Has the Commodity Bust Affected North Korea’s Trade Balance? (Part 2)
4. Nicholas Eberstadt’s “Dependencia, North Korea Style” (I would have gone with “Our Style Dependencia”)
5. NK News on coal shipments in 2014.
6. Radio Free Asia on coal shipments.
7. N. Korea’s smartphone imports from China hit record
8. China’s exports of jet fuel to N. Korea rebounds in 2014
Read the full story here:
N. Korea’s 2014 trade with China marks 1st drop in 5 years
Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
China began to provide large-scale food assistance to North Korea from late February, reported KOTRA (Korea Trade-Investment Promotion Agency) in its recent report.
The Korea Business Center (KBC) in Canton, KOTRA’s overseas branch, released a report about the details of China’s food assistance to North Korea. “China is the largest supplier of material goods to North Korea but even the major North Korean experts in China do not have the exact figures of aid provided to North Korea.” Based on the information gained from local media and interviews with experts, “North Korea requested food assistance of at least 200,000 tons, as well as assistance in construction materials. The amount is estimated at more than 600 million yuan RMB.”
According to Chian Grain Reserves Corporation and Dalian Commodity Exchange, 6,600 million yuan RMB is equivalent to 150,000 tons of rice or 26.5 million tons of corn, calculated with the wholesale price in the Northeast China region. 600 million yuan RMB of rice exported to Shinuiju from Dandong can purchase about 17.1 million tons of rice.
Old rice and flour is being gathered in Dandong from all over China, and is being sold to North Korea at a very low cost without ever entering the Chinese domestic market. The KBC report evaluates that this is a welcomed change because North Koreans are not selective about their food, since they do not have enough money to buy food. It reports, “Cheap food is considered the best food,” and “North Korean customs automatically allows the food to enter the country and small amounts of a few tons of food is not even tariffed,” said an unnamed North Korean trader.
China’s recent food aid to North Korea was conducted largely in two ways: First, it was provided quietly without the public being notified; second, it went via the World Food Programme (WFP) and other international organizations. According to the WFP China Office, the recent 600 million yuan food aid to North Korea was not related to WFP aid to North Korea.
China is careful about releasing information related to its food aid to North Korea. However, what is known is that the aid consists of selling food at a low-cost and through nongovernmental exchanges. There are several trading companies in Dandong that ships food and other materials to North Korea when charitable organizations in Beijing make the request for shipment.
On the other hand, the May 24 (2010) Measures (of South Korea) has suspended all trade between North and South Korea. This has propelled North Korea-China trade to expand and the trade volume between the two nations increased 32 percent or 1.9 billion USD from January to April, compared to the same period of the previous year, according to the Korea International Trade Association.
During this period, North Korea’s export to China recorded 793 million USD, which also jumped 33 percent against last year and the revenues from import also increased 32.8 percent equalling 1.16 billion USD.
UPDATE (2012-9-19): The South Korean government is offering compensation to companies affected affected by the South Korean government’s policy decisions. According to the JoongAng Daily:
The Ministry of Unification announced a plan yesterday to pay cash to local firms financially distressed by the suspension of inter-Korean trade and economic cooperation.
The unprecedented aid totaling 7.5 billion won ($6.7 million) will go to South Korean businessmen who have financially suffered from Seoul’s imposition of economic sanctions on North Korea on May 24, 2010 in the wake of the North’s sinking of the South’s naval vessel Cheonan earlier that year, said Kim Hyung-suk, a unification ministry spokesman. The 7.5 billion won comes from the Inter-Korean Cooperation Fund.
The offer of cash aid to companies doing business with North Korea is a first. Previously, authorities provided loans worth a total of 56.9 billion won to 221 companies on two occasions in 2010 and this year.
The decision comes as all economic cooperation between Seoul and Pyongyang has been put on hold except at the Kaesong Industrial Complex, since the implementation of measure announced by the Lee Myung-bak administration in May 2010.
The sanctions on trade with North Korea in the wake of the sinking of Cheonan, which killed 46 naval officers in March 2010, stopped all business partnerships.
“As it is mainly small- and medium-sized companies that are in financial difficulties due to the halted economic activities in the North, we expect the funds to help them recover,” said Yoon Min-ho, director of the economic cooperation division at the ministry.
To be eligible, companies must have investment records in the North during the two years before May 2010 or a history of trading with Pyongyang one year before May 2010.
The ministry will provide between 5 million won and 20 million won to each company that invested in the North following due diligence. Business groups that invested more than $3 million in the North will be given the maximum amount of 20 million won.
For traders with volumes of trade of over $1 million, aid of 15 million won will be given.
Companies that invested in the Mount Kumgang tourism business, which was curtailed after a North Korean guard shot a South Korean tourist in 2008, can also apply for assistance.
Article citation: Kang Jin-kyu, “Cash aid for ailing investors in North”, JoongAng Daily, 2012-9-19
ORIGINAL POST (2012-6-1): Along with the anniversary of the “May 24 Measures” we have seen many reports on the status of the DPRK – ROK trade relationship. I have previously blogged about the reports by the Korea Development Institute (KDI), Hyundai Research Institute and Korea International Trade Association.
Now we have a new report by the Korea Trade-Investment Promotion Corporation (KOTRA).
Because I am unable to locate the original report (in Korean), I have posted commentary on the report below.
According to the Hankyoreh:
Seoul’s attempts to handle North Korean provocation by isolating it economically appear to have been ineffective. A report on 2011 North Korean trade trends released May 30 by the Korea Trade Promotion Corporation (KOTRA) had the country’s exports up by 84.2% and its imports up by 32.6% from the year before. The numbers did not include inter-Korean trade figures.
North Korea had trade of US$6.3 billion for 2011, comprised of US$2.8 in exports and US$3.5 in imports. This marked a 51.3% increase from the year before.
Its biggest export was coal, at US$1.17 billion, followed by minerals (US$400 million) and textiles (US$390 million). The largest import was petroleum and other fuels (US$810 million), followed by machinery (US$300 million) and electronics (US$270 million).
The country’s largest trading partner was China, with US$2.46 billion in exports and US$3.17 billion in imports last year, for total trade of US$5.63 billion, or 89.1% of all North Korean trade. In 2004, only 48.5% of North Korea’s trade was with China. The next largest trading partners were Russia, Germany, India, and Bangladesh, in that order.
Meanwhile, trade with South Korea slid amid Seoul’s efforts to isolate Pyongyang. A report on inter-Korean trade by the Unification Minister showed a total of US$1.7 billion last year, down nearly US$200 million from the US$1.9 recorded in 2010.
The numbers show that while inter-Korean economic cooperation is being stymied by the South Korean government‘s policies, North Korea has been making up the difference and then some by trading with other countries.
University of North Korean Studies professor Yang Mu-jin said, “Not only are the government’s isolation policies completely ineffective, but they’ve increased [North Korea’s] reliance on China. These policies have been proven ineffective and should be abandoned immediately.”
Here are some additional details from the Financial Times:
Trade with China increased 62.4 per cent from a year earlier to $5.63bn.
“The increased trade does not mean a better life for North Koreans because the hard currency earned from mineral exports to China was mostly spent on the large-scale events to promote the regime,” said Suh Jae-pyong, a North Korean defector who works for the Committee for the Democratisation of North Korea, a civic group.
Stephan Haggard comments on the KOTRA report on his blog:
So how important is China to North Korea? The numbers cited are often wildly exaggerated in the policy debates, largely because of the difficulty of getting accurate information on the DPRK’s overall trade. The government of North Korea regards economic statistics as state secrets; as a result, all trade data has to be reconstructed by examining the “mirror statistics” of the country’s trade partners: by adding up what other countries say that they import from the country.
But even such an apparently simple exercise is fraught. First, a number of countires—including Iran—also do not provide reliable trade statistics. Second, nearly every year the statistical agency of some country around the world gets North and South Korea confused and reports an amazing spike in trade with North Korea, consisting of imports of North Korean cell phones and automobiles. Not!
The most widely cited source on North Korean trade is a South Korean public agency, KOTRA, which carefully screens the mirror data for such obvious anomalies. But KOTRA adopts a number of other conventions that distort the overall trade picture. In calculating North Korean trade it excludes the country’s trade with South Korea (on the constitutional grounds that inter-Korean trade is within the nation) and oddly ignores trade with many Middle Eastern countries that do in fact report trade with North Korea to the UN statistical agencies. We have never figured out why they do this, and it may have reasonable motivations, such as beliefs about the reliability of the data. But simply throwing the data out makes now sense.
The upshot is that the prominence of the trade partners that KOTRA does count is greatly exaggerated. The New York Times and Washington Post, for example, have both reported that China accounts for 80 percent of North Korea’s trade; even with smuggling that is wildly exaggerated given the ongoing important of Kaesong for North Korea’s balance of payments.
The actual figure, once North-South and other missing entries are accounted for, is roughly half as much by our estimates (see the figure above). But over 40% reliance on China is not trivial. Moreover, the prevalence of private firms in this trade—as we have reported in two recent working papers (here and here)—is high. Moreover, state-owned enterprises are themselves profit-driven. Even if Chinese authorities were aggressive in enforcing sanctions—which they do not appear to be—the opportunities for mischief are high.
Read the full stories here:
North Korea keeps doing business in spite of isolation
N Korea trade soars on Chinese demand
According to the Choson Ilbo, China-N.Korea trade has reached a historically high level (as it does nearly every quarter).
China’s trade with North Korea has tripled since 2005. According to the Korea Trade-Investment Promotion Agency (KOTRA), Chinese customs statistics show that China has been bumping up its trade with the North by US$1 billion every three years since the middle of the last decade.
After first breaking past the $1-billion trade barrier in 2005, China posted $2 billion in 2008 and over $3 billion last year. Minerals, machinery and cars topped the list of exports, and two-way trade last year reached its all-time peak of $5 billion.
Read the full story here:
China-N.Korea Trade Reaches All-time High
According to Yonhap:
North Korea’s exports of mineral resources jumped 17-fold in a decade with its outbound shipment of coals and iron ores leading the growth, a U.S. report showed on Saturday.
According to Radio Free Asia (RFA), the communist state’s exports of mineral resources reached US$860 million last year, compared with some $50 million in 2002.
Citing data compiled by the Korea Trade-Investment Promotion Agency [KOTRA], the RFA said exports of such minerals as coal and iron ore accounted for 63 percent of its total exports to its strongest ally China.
In the first quarter of the year, the North earned around $154 million by exporting coal to the neighboring country, compared with $9.68 million seen a year earlier.
North Korea’s mineral reserves are believed to be among the largest in the world, worth some 7,000 trillion won, based on 2008 prices, according to an earlier report by the Unification Ministry.
I am unable to locate either the RFA story or the KOTRA report so I don’t have much to say on this. If you have a link please send it to me.
Read the full story here:
N. Korea’s exports of mineral resources top US$860 mln last year
Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
NK Brief No.10-12-3-2
North Korean trade with China has jumped 26.7 percent during the first eight months of the year, with the bulk of its imports made up of crude oil, and its largest export being coal. Despite the increasingly severe food shortages in the North, food imports from China were actually down 7.5 percent, while on the other hand, fertilizer imports shot up by 162 percent.
The Korea Trade-Investment Promotion Agency (KOTRA) looked into the Chinese government’s import and export figures and determined that North Korean exports to China during the first eight months of the year were worth 650,000 USD, 20.6% more than during the same period last year, while DPRK imported 1.345 billion USD-worth of goods (30% increase), for trade worth a total of 1.995 billion USD, 26.7 percent more than 2009.
“Mineral fuel and mineral oil” topped the list of North Korean imports (321,000 USD), with crude oil (229,000 USD) and oil (63,000 USD) making up 90.7 percent of imported goods. However, while crude imports were 53 percent more expensive, the amount of oil imported only rose by 2.3 percent; the sharp increase in expenditure was due to climbing international oil prices. The second- and third-largest imports were listed as “nuclear reactor, boiler, and machinery” (127,000 USD) and “electromagnetic machinery, sound and video equipment” (106,000 USD). Other imports included cars and car parts, steel and steel goods, plastic and plastic goods, artificial filament, fertilizer, and grain. A KOTRA official stated that while “nuclear reactor” was listed among the goods imported by the North, there is no way to verify the Chinese statistics.
North Korea’s grain import expenditures increased by five percent, to 34,000 USD, but overall grain imports fell 7.5 percent, to 102,000 tons, due to increased costs. More specifically, rice import expenditures were up 8.4 percent to 16.6 million USD, but the amount of rice imported fell by six percent, to 38,400 tons. Corn expenditures dropped by one percent to 16.3 million USD while the amount imported fell by ten percent, to 62,000 tons. The cost of barley imports grew 190 percent, to 353,000 USD, with the amount of barley brought into the country up 89 percent to 1,011 tons. 277,000 tons of fertilizer were imported, 162 percent more than last year, at a cost of 40 million USD, 85 percent more than 2009. Almost all of the fertilizer was nitrogenous.
North Korea’s exports to China were made up largely of mining and fisheries. Coal topped the list (191,000 USD), although the amount sent across the border was 31 percent less than last year. Iron ore was second, and was not only down by 34 percent, it brought in 134 percent less than 2009, as it was worth only 111 million USD. Textiles and accessories worth 81 million USD, steel worth 64 million USD, and mollusks worth 32 million USD were also sent to China.
Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
NK Brief No. 10-06-07-1
In 2009, North Korea’s foreign trade (not including inter-Korean trade) amounted to 3.41 billion dollars, 10.5 percent less than 2008, which saw the largest amount of DPRK overseas commerce since 1991. Exports were down 5.97 percent (1.06 billion USD), while imports were down 12.45 percent (2.35 billion USD), recording a 1.29 billion USD trade deficit.
These figures come from a KOTRA analysis of the Korea Business Center (KBC)’s statistics of trade with North Korea by foreign countries. Because North Korea does not reveal trade statistics, this ‘mirror analysis’ method of analyzing the statistics of its trading partners is the only method available.
Looking at each country’s trade figures individually reveals that China is the North’s largest trade partner. DPRK-PRC trade amounted to 2.68 billion USD last year, 78.5 percent of all the North’s foreign trade. The North exported 790 million USD worth of goods to China, while its imports from China amounted to 1.89 billion USD. As North Korea’s trade with China continues to grow relative to that with other countries, so too, does its economic dependence on Beijing. In 2003, DPRK-PRC trade amounted to 42.8 percent of its overall foreign trade. This grew to 48.5 percent in 2004, accounted for more than half (52.6 percent) in2005, hit 56.7 percent in 2006, 67.1 percent in 2007, and 73 percent in 2008.
North Korea’s main imports from China were crude oil and petroleum (330 million USD, down 44.2 percent from 2008), boiler and machinery parts (160 million USD, up 10 percent), and electrical components (130 million USD, up 31 percent). Top exports to China included coal (260 million USD, up 26 percent), minerals (140 million USD, down 34.1 percent), and textiles (90 million USD, up 20.7 percent).
Germany, Russia, India, and Singapore were the North’s 2nd thru 5th largest trade partners. Trade with Germany was up 33.7 percent, amounting to 70 million USD, while trade with Russia, India, and Singapore dropped off. After these countries, Hong Kong, Brazil, Thailand, Bangladesh, and the Netherlands made up the rest of the top 10 trade partners, which account for 92 percent of all the North’s overseas trade.
In addition, with continuing sanctions against the North by the United States and Japan, there were no exports to these countries, and imports from these countries amounted to a mere 2.7 million USD and 900,000 USD, respectively.
Inter-Korean trade for 2009 amounted to 1.68 billion USD. This was down 7.8 percent from the previous year. North Korean imports from the South were down 16.1 percent, recording 740 million USD. This was largely impacted by the closing of the Keumgang Mountain tourism project.
Combined, North Korea’s total foreign trade was down 9.7 percent, to 5.09 billion USD. 53 percent of this was with China, while 33 percent was with South Korea.
Continued international sanctions against the North and the possibility of additional unilateral sanctions from several countries means DPRK foreign trade will likely shrink more in 2010. It is also expected that the North’s economic dependency on China will continue to grow.
From the Korea Herald:
The North Korean economy’s dependency on international trade is nearing 40 percent, a think tank reported yesterday.
According to the Korea Development Institute’s report on North Korea’s economy in the 2000s, North Korea carried out international trade worth $5.64 billion last year.
The cross border trade figure of $5.64 billion recorded last year is equivalent to about 40 percent of the North’s gross domestic product, which is estimated to be about $15 billion.
In the report, the KDI said that the figures show that North Korea’s economy, which the regime boasted as having the most independent structure in the world, is taking a form increasingly dependent on the outside world.
The report said that North Korea’s cross border trade volume has risen rapidly, mainly due to increasing imports, and that such developments have been essential to the country’s economic recovery.
Since 2000, North Korea has managed to post positive growth rates.
However, North Korea’s GDP per capita is thought to be hovering below figures recorded in the late 1980s and the early 1990s, before the country’s economic crisis began.
According to United Nation’s statistics, North Korea’s GDP per capita was between $600 and $700 for the 2007 to 2008 period.
In comparison, the country’s GDP per capita was ranged between $900 and $1,000 in the late ’80s and the early ’90s.
The KDI estimated that applying the rate at which the North’s GDP per capita has been increasing since 2000, the country’s GDP per capita is likely to be between $700 and $1,300 in 2012.
The report also said that although the North Korean authorities are moving back toward a more tightly controlled economy, the country’s is unlikely to meet the targets set for 2012.
In addition, the report said that recording a trade deficit of $1.5 billion last year — equivalent to about 10 percent of its gross domestic product — makes it appear that the country is going to have a hard time digging itself out of trouble by itself.
Of last year’s $5.64 billion trade figure, exports accounted for about $2.06 billion, while imports came in at more $3.57 billion. According to the KDI’s figures, the North’s cross border trading has been increasing at an average rate of 11 percent each year since 2000, when the figure was recorded at about $2.39 billion.
Along with the increase in trade volume, North Korea’s trade deficit has also increased rapidly since 2000.
Between 2000 and 2004, North Korea’s trade deficits were maintained below or just above $1 billion. However the figure rose sharply in 2005 to reach $1.38 billion in 2005.
The KDI said that the North’s authorities have been able to offset trade deficits through the large amount of overseas capital that has flown into the country since 2000.
So where is that capital account surplus coming from to finance the trade deficit? It is NOT coming from South Korea.
Read the full story here:
N. Korea trade dependency hits 40%
According to Yonhap:
Trade volume during the January-June period totaled US$1.1 billion, down 3.7 percent from a year earlier and the first decline since 1999, the Korea Trade-Investment Promotion Agency (KOTRA) said in an emailed release that cited official Chinese data. The drop was in striking contrast with a 41 percent increase during the same period last year and a 16 percent gain in 2007.
North Korea was put under U.N. sanctions for its nuclear test in May, barring its weapons trade and strictly limiting cash flows into the country. The sanctions, however, do not appear to have affected North Korea’s trade with China, an official at South Korea’s Unification Ministry said.
Prices of crude oil, which account for a quarter of North Korean imports from China, subsided this year after steep hikes in 2007 and 2008, said Jeon Dong-myeong, a ministry official overseeing North Korean trade.
“It’s not a steep decline. The 3.7 percent decline in trade volume can arise from price differences,” Jeon said.
North Korean imports from China amounted to $750 million, down 8.4 percent, while exports increased by 8.2 percent to $352 million, according to KOTRA.
By item, North Korea’s crude oil imports showed the steepest decline of 54 percent, or $111 million.
Food imports slightly increased to $23 million, and fertilizer imports considerably grew to $11.9 million, close to the amount the North brought in during all of 2008, $12.7 million.
Despite the international sanctions on the country, North Korea’s trade with Germany gained by 46.53 million euros during the first half of this year, according to KOTRA. Citing Germany’s figures, it said trade volume was up 160 percent from the same period last year, and up 30 percent from the total trade volume the two countries registered for last year.
Read the full story here:
N. Korean trade with China falls slightly in first half of 2009
Further information and requests:
1. Here is the PR of China’s Ministry of Commerce database where trade data is published (does not work well with Mozilla). The usual caveats apply.
2. I have given up on the KOTRA web page. Can someone please send me the KOTRA email mentioned in the Yonhap story?