North Korean Economy Watch

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
NK Brief No. 10-12-13
12/13/2010

According to a report on Kim Jong Il”s on-site inspections and guidance, the leader of the North made 148 trips throughout the country between the beginning of the year and December 6, most of which were to sites related to economic activities. The South Korean Ministry of Unification revealed that, of Kim”s visits, 33 were to military sites, 58 to sites related to the economy, and 11 visits related to foreign affairs. These numbers are similar to those seen in 2009 (i.e., 148 visits: 43 military sites; 58 economy; 13 foreign relations). It was also reported that Kim Jong Un accompanied his father on 28 of those trips in 2010. The North Korean official media has continued, even after the shelling of Yeonpyeong Island, to report on Kim”s on-site guidance, and the visits appear to focus on production facilities related to the people”s livelihoods.

One recent report revealed that Kim visited a cigarette factory, food processing facility, and traditional medicine producer in Hyeryong, while another report noted Kim”s visits to mining facilities and a food processing plant in Musan, as well as magnesia factory, mining equipment factory, and port facilities under construction in Danchun.

Kim Jong Il has made 12 site visits since the Yeonpyeong Island incident on November 23, seven of which were to sites important to the economy. While Kim has focused on visits to South Hamgyong Province in the past, he has recently shown more interest in North Hamgyong, as well.

On December 3, Korea Central Broadcasting reported on Kim Jong Il”s visit to the Musan food processing plant, attributing him with having “expressed great pleasure” that the plant was turning out flawless food items that would “significantly add” to the lives of the people. He also explained to the workers that it was their duty to help improve the lives of the people of the town.

Kim Jong Il also visited the Kim Chaek Ironworks and stressed the importance of Juche-driven self-reliant production and an independent economy. On December 6, the KCNA released a 7-page account of Kim”s visits, which observers believe could have significant meaning.

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
NK Brief No.10-12-3-2
12/3/2010

North Korean trade with China has jumped 26.7 percent during the first eight months of the year, with the bulk of its imports made up of crude oil, and its largest export being coal. Despite the increasingly severe food shortages in the North, food imports from China were actually down 7.5 percent, while on the other hand, fertilizer imports shot up by 162 percent.

The Korea Trade-Investment Promotion Agency (KOTRA) looked into the Chinese government’s import and export figures and determined that North Korean exports to China during the first eight months of the year were worth 650,000 USD, 20.6% more than during the same period last year, while DPRK imported 1.345 billion USD-worth of goods (30% increase), for trade worth a total of 1.995 billion USD, 26.7 percent more than 2009.

“Mineral fuel and mineral oil” topped the list of North Korean imports (321,000 USD), with crude oil (229,000 USD) and oil (63,000 USD) making up 90.7 percent of imported goods. However, while crude imports were 53 percent more expensive, the amount of oil imported only rose by 2.3 percent; the sharp increase in expenditure was due to climbing international oil prices. The second- and third-largest imports were listed as “nuclear reactor, boiler, and machinery” (127,000 USD) and “electromagnetic machinery, sound and video equipment” (106,000 USD). Other imports included cars and car parts, steel and steel goods, plastic and plastic goods, artificial filament, fertilizer, and grain. A KOTRA official stated that while “nuclear reactor” was listed among the goods imported by the North, there is no way to verify the Chinese statistics.

North Korea’s grain import expenditures increased by five percent, to 34,000 USD, but overall grain imports fell 7.5 percent, to 102,000 tons, due to increased costs. More specifically, rice import expenditures were up 8.4 percent to 16.6 million USD, but the amount of rice imported fell by six percent, to 38,400 tons. Corn expenditures dropped by one percent to 16.3 million USD while the amount imported fell by ten percent, to 62,000 tons. The cost of barley imports grew 190 percent, to 353,000 USD, with the amount of barley brought into the country up 89 percent to 1,011 tons. 277,000 tons of fertilizer were imported, 162 percent more than last year, at a cost of 40 million USD, 85 percent more than 2009. Almost all of the fertilizer was nitrogenous.

North Korea’s exports to China were made up largely of mining and fisheries. Coal topped the list (191,000 USD), although the amount sent across the border was 31 percent less than last year. Iron ore was second, and was not only down by 34 percent, it brought in 134 percent less than 2009, as it was worth only 111 million USD. Textiles and accessories worth 81 million USD, steel worth 64 million USD, and mollusks worth 32 million USD were also sent to China.

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
NK Brief No. 10-11-30
11/30/2010

North Korea has recently revised the Pyongyang City Management Law in order to support ongoing modernization efforts by increasing the management and operational authority of the Cabinet and of the State Planning Committee. On October 21, the Cabinet newspaper ‘Minju Chosun’ ran an article emphasizing the need to ensure that necessary capital and supplies were guaranteed for the construction of 100,000 new residences in Pyongyang and now it appears the North is backing up this modernization drive with the law.

The legal code was revised in accordance with Order No. 743, passed down by the standing committee of the Supreme People’s Assembly on March 30 of this year, but was just recently made public in South Korea. What stands out in this newly revised law is that the central government has strengthened its hold on management and operations within the city.

Article 47 of the city management law states, “The Cabinet must naturally take control of and supervise Pyongyang management operations,” and Article 48 stipulates that the State Planning Committee and the Pyongyang People’s Committee establish and strictly follow detailed plans for each sector of management operations within the capital city. Article 47, of the former law (enacted on 26 Nov. 1998), which covered management projects within Pyongyang, was removed while five new articles were added. Article 17 covers housing construction, Article 27 covers management of street lighting, Article 43 covers the delivery of publications, Article 46 stipulates basic working conditions, and Article 51 guarantees that goods will be produced for Pyongyang markets.

Article 17 stipulates that “the construction of housing must completely guaranteed,” and Article 51 states that planning for and production of commercial goods for Pyongyang must be ensured “without fail.” Housing, goods, electricity, capital and other necessities for the modernization of Pyongyang have now been essentially legally guaranteed. New housing in the capital has been a priority for the North, with construction already underway and plans for 30,000 additional units next year and 35,000 more in 2012. In order to show off these new renovations day and night, Article 27 calls for the “logical installation of street lights” to brighten walkways, roads, and national monuments. The new legal revision appears to be yet another step toward shoring up the framework for establishment of a ‘Strong and Prosperous Nation’ and transition of power to yet a third generation of Kims.

The new law reinforces Pyongyang’s centrality in North Korea’s revolutionary ambitions, referring to the capital as “the home of Juche,” “the heart of the Korean people,” and “the face of the nation.”

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)

NK Brief No. 10-11-26-1
11/26/2010

North Korea has recently revised its law governing the planning of the People’s Economy, significantly strengthening the state’s ability to oversee and control economic activities throughout the country. The South Korean Ministry of Unification recently released the contents of the law, which the North revised on April 6, as well as details of two laws created by the Supreme People’s Committee Standing Committee on July 8; the Law on Labor Protection (Order 945) and the Chamber of Commerce Law (Order 946).

The new law on economic planning contains seven new articles, but since the details of the August 2009 revision were never made public, it is unclear when the new articles were added. What is clear, however, is how different the new law is when compared to the Law on Planning the People’s Economy that was passed in May, 2001 and the Economic Management Reform Measure enacted on July 1, 2002, both of which significantly boosted the autonomy of business managers and eased government restrictions on economic activity.

With the July 1 Measure, the authority of the National Economic Planning Committee was downgraded, central allocations were graduated based on managerial autonomy and profits, the central rationing system was dismantled, and wages were increased. While the economic planning law of 2001 and the July 1 Measure of 2002 eased restrictions on, and oversight of, the people’s economy, the newly-revised law strengthens state control. The new law appears to not only return but also bolster the central control mechanisms that were eliminated by the 2001 law.

Article 16 of the new law states that the planned economy will be based on prepared figures, while Article 18 states that enterprises, organizations and companies will operate on the principle of ensuring regulated numbers, and Article 24 requires the people’s economic plan, drafted by the Cabinet, State Planning Organization, and regional authorities, to be broken down in detail, by timeframe and indexes, and distributed to enterprises, organizations and companies by the end of October. The planning law passed in 2001 called for economic plans to be drawn up based on production statistics provided from ‘below’ and passed up through chains of command (Article 17), but this has been eliminated from the new law.

With the revision of the law on labor protection, North Korea has added more specific language to Article 12 of the ‘Socialist Labor Law’, which was established in April 1978. Article12 of the Law on Labor Protection states that the protection of laborers’ work is the primary demand of the socialist system, which sees the people as the most precious resource. The law strengthens the role of the state in protecting laborers, and identifies ‘difficult and strenuous’ jobs, including mining, fishing, and earthquake investigation. Workers in these fields are to be given favorable treatment, including the issuance of additional clothing, food and other rations.

In addition, the law covers the installation and maintenance of safety equipment, the issuance of protective gear, and additional protections for female workers. It also restricts work to eight hours per day and guarantees holidays and time off, health care, and protection of property. These and other articles in the law increase state management of workers, but defector testimonies paint a different picture. Most workers save their wages with the assumption that they will have to pay bribes, medical costs and other expenses out-of-pocket.

The law on commercial activity further details the ‘Chamber of Commerce Regulation’ handed down by the Cabinet in 2008. The law covers a range of duties and rights regarding commercial operations, including contracts and operations regarding joint ventures with foreign firms; legal letters of confirmation, certificates of country of origin and other paperwork related to trade issues; as well as exhibitions and conventions held in conjunction with foreign businesses.

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
NK Brief No. 10-11-22-1
11/22/2010

The Chosun Sinbo reported on November 15 that North Korea has erected hundreds of cellular signal towers throughout the country, providing phone service to every province, city, and town in North Korea. According to the report, the expansion of the North’s 3G network has really taken off in 2010, and the number of subscribers within the country has grown 2.5 times in the latter half of the year, as has the available coverage area.

This initiative has focused on setting up hundreds of cell towers near major highways, cities, and industries important to economic advancement. It was also reported that industry insiders had revealed that not only towns, cities, and provinces were targeted for the expansion of cellular service, but that there was a plan to erect towers in the back country, as well, and that authorities aimed to extend service to every village in the country by next year.

To this end, the Chosun Sinbo reported, the Pyongyang-based DPRK-PRC JV Checom Joint Venture Company has set up a “flow manufacturing process and is producing hundreds of high-performance cellular phones each day” and, “Related sectors are testing new devices and actively working on a project aimed at modifying the operating software to suit the needs of North Koreans.”

The paper also reported that North Korea’s academics and scientists collaborated to develop such a system in a short time, and that the system was also integrated into the nation’s Intranet. This system is different from the previous configuration in that videos, recordings, and text messages can be sent both ways, so that the system better supports an exchange of information rather than merely a transfer.

The paper emphasized that by providing distance education service to every local academic office, city and town library, and science and educational facility, the North has enacted a state-of-the-art, nationwide education system. In addition, by providing the infrastructure for real-time interactive lectures, workers and children in every region of the country can easily pursue their education by actively participating in a wide range of lectures.

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
NK Brief No. 10-11-13-1
11/13/2010

The construction cost for six inter-Korean cooperative industrial parks like the Kaesong Industrial Complex would carry a construction bill of 44 billion Won. According to “Analysis of Examples of Inter-Korean Cooperation in the Construction Field and the Direction of Industrial Park Development within North Korea,” a recent report by the Construction Economy Research Institute of Korea, “Promotion of the North Korean construction market by the [South Korean] construction industry would not only increase the limited demand for the South Korean construction [field], but will also provide new growth to our economy.”

According to the report, there has been almost no cooperative construction project within the construction field since 1988. On the other hand, tourism, industrial parks, physical fitness and religious projects have provided opportunities for construction companies. These projects generally call for construction equipment, materials, technicians and designs from South Korea, and land, labor, aggregate, etc. from the North. If six industrial parks on the same scale as the KIC were to be built, it would cost 43.09 billion Won. Of this, 4.07 billion won would cover government costs, while the actual cost of construction would be 39.02 billion won.

If the KIC, currently undergoing the first phase of construction, were to complete all three phases of the original plan, the 19.9 square-kilometer complex would house 2,000 businesses. The research institute calls for the completion of phases 2 and 3 in the KIC, as well as the construction of industrial parks at Rajin-Sonbong, Sinuiju, Haeju, Nampo, and Wonsan.

Rajin-Sonbong and Sinuiju are both ‘Free Economic Trade Zones’, and as special administrative zones, they offer large-scale industrial plots in an effort to attract foreign capital. In addition, it was agreed at the second inter-Korean summit, in October 2007, that Haeju would be developed. Furthermore, a light-industrial complex in Nampo, on the West Sea, and a heavy and chemical industry in Wonsan have been established.

The industrial zones, however, constitute only part of the construction demand. Roads and rails connecting the complexes, port facilities, power generation plants, cities to support production workers, and other derivative projects would also need to be constructed. In other words, the building of an industrial zone would lead to significant peripheral construction demand, as well.

Assuming that inter-Korean tensions were eased and North Korea decided to open itself up to the South, if construction on the six industrial zones could begin by the middle of next year, it is expected that they could all be completed by 2021. In addition, the construction and operation of the six zones could provide the impetus for quickly improving the North Korean economy, while also boosting the importance of South Korea to the North’s economy.

In order to see this accomplished, the research institute found that the government needs to boost activity in the KIC; expand the distribution network between the KIC, Kimpo, and Kangwa; guarantee free management authority in the KIC; iron out customs and transportation procedures; ensure a steady supply of North Korean laborers; and strengthen the ties between the KIC and North Korea’s domestic economy.

If, in the future, North Korea is to open its doors to cooperation, it is expected that foreign companies will also participate. Therefore, when considering long-term profits, it is necessary to spur interest in North Korea’s construction market. The research institute suggested that it was also necessary to construct a training center to teach North Korean construction workers the technical skills needed to ensure maximum potential.

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
NK Brief No. 10-11-8-1
11/8/2010

North Korea held an extended meeting of the entire Cabinet in order to discuss the types of projects to be pursued in the last quarter of the year, and to strategize on how these projects should be implemented.

On October 28, the CHOSUN SHINBO reported on an article in the MINJU CHOSUN, which is under the control of the North Korean Cabinet. According to the article, efforts are being made to strongly construct the foundation upon which exemplars of the ‘military-first’ era will be erected. Production lines and facilities in all realms of the People’s Economy need to come into alignment with CNC, and efforts need to be made toward modernization, environmental protection, and reforestation. In particular, the Cabinet has pledged to decisively improve city management and restore socialism in cities and agricultural villages. Efforts will be focused on restoring socialist principles to economic management and ensuring that the centrally planned national economy is implemented.

The newspaper also reported that the North’s Cabinet held discussions on how to successfully fulfill all the goals set for the third quarter while creating a strategy to meet all of the targets set for the annual People’s Economy. It is unknown exactly when this meeting was held, but Premier Choi Yong-rim and other Cabinet members were all in attendance, as were city and town People’s Committee representatives, committee members from factories and farming communities, economic planners, and managers from critical factories and organizations.

As officials discuss economic reforms, the sixth annual autumn Pyongyang International Trade Fair was held from October 18-21, and it saw a greater Chinese presence than the thirteenth annual spring trade fair held last May. This could be the result of Kim Jong Il’s August visit to China. According to the newspaper, seventeen countries were represented by over 140 companies (48 from North Korea, 93 from abroad) — This was three countries and over twenty companies more than were at the spring fair. India participated for the first time this fall.

An official from the trade fair told the newspaper that the increased participation from Chinese companies was a direct result of Kim Jong Il’s recent visit to China’s northeastern region and the improved economic relations between Pyongyang and Beijing that came out of that visit. From machinery and equipment to steel products, electronic goods and light industrial products, food, pharmaceuticals, traditional herbal medicines and chemical products, over 57,000 products in over 2,300 different categories were on display. This is more than 600 categories of goods not seen last year.

Foreign companies participating in the fair signed contracts with North Korean offices for sales, technology exchanges, joint ventures, and investment opportunities, building on the ‘Introduction and Negotiations on the Investment Environment of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea’ held on October 18.

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
NK Brief No. 10-11-01-1
11/1/2010

The North Korean Ministry of People’s Security (MPS) recently issued an order restricting the use of automobiles and warning that any car or truck used to earn private income would be confiscated by the State. There were a few cases of authorities cracking down on the use of private buses in the mid-2000s, but this is the first time there has been a widespread crackdown on the private use of all vehicles.

According to a report from the Daily NK, a source from North Hamgyeong Province has revealed that “on an order from the MPS, a crackdown on privately-owned cars, buses, and 1.5-2 ton small trucks began last month,” and, “all traffic police were mobilized and are checking all registrations, car-use permits, and driving licenses.” According to the source, each regional transportation authority is filing comprehensive situation reports, which show that with the exception of cars used by the elite, all illegally-used cars are being confiscated. Even cars used by military-run foreign capital organizations are subject to inspection by police.

In North Korea, the lack of electricity has led, since the mid~2000s, to the sharp drop in the use of trains and a rise in reliance on the so-called ‘service car’ as the primary method of moving people and goods around the country. This crackdown on service cars will be carried out in two phases: Phase 1 will run until the end of the year, then Phase 2 will be carried out until April 2011. The ownership and use of cars by organizations and businesses will also be investigated, while other cars will be inspected one at a time as they travel the roads. If any illegal use is discovered, the car will be impounded.

This kind of measure appears to be one aspect of North Korean authorities’ on-going battle against “anti-socialism.” Cars and other government property being put to private use is problematic, but a crackdown of this size indicates that organizations and government workers are abusing the rules on such a scale that the government can no longer tolerate their corruption. In order for these service cars to exist, authorities must break laws, forge documents, and pay bribes to get a car registered, purchase gas, and handle profits.

However, a crackdown on these cars is expected to have many side-effects. Service cars began replacing trains in 2004, but the people’s reliance on them grew so quickly that they are now the primary means of transportation throughout North Korea.

Ultimately, the North can not avoid significant aftershocks of the measure; without service cars, not only will businesses suffer production problems, those people who make their living through wholesale and retail markets will suffer, and the standard of living for people across the country will take a hit.

Previous posts on this topic cna be found here and here.

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
NK Brief No. 10-10-25-1
10/25/2010

There has been a sharp drop in inter-Korean exchanges resulting from the chill in relations on the peninsula. This has led to a mere 3.6 percent of the inter-Korean cooperation fund being tapped as of the end of September. In 2009, 8.6 percent of the allocated funds were spent, but this year, even at the end of the third quarter, not even half that much has been allocated.

The National Assembly’s Unification, Foreign Affairs and Trade Committee found in an audit of the Ministry of Unification’s public documents that almost 1.2 trillion Won had been allocated for inter-Korean cooperative projects, but a mere 41.7 billion Won had been spent. 1.4 billion Won was spent on socio-cultural exchanges, while 13.1 billion Won was spent on humanitarian aid, 10.7 billion Won supported economic cooperative projects, and 16.7 billion Won was advanced in support of those companies and groups planning additional projects. On the other hand, the Ministry of Unification is loaning 60 billion Won from the inter-Korean cooperation fund to South Korean companies invested in economic cooperative projects that are suffering losses due to the May 24 measures, which restrict exchanges due to the sinking of the Cheonan.

In 2008, the first year of Lee Myung-bak’s administration, only 18.1 percent of the inter-Korean cooperation fund was spent, and this percentage has fallen every year since. Now at an all-time low, it appears that the rate of spending will continue to fall in the future. With the May 24 measures, the Kaesong Industrial Complex was exempted from trade restrictions. In addition, other inter-Korean trade worth approximately 80 million USD (90 billion Won) has been permitted. This includes 639 different cases of imported goods manufactured from raw materials or parts sent to the North prior to the May 24 restrictions, amounting to 31.15 million USD, and 269 cases of pre-ordered exports amounting to just over 49 million USD.

On the other hand, losses due to the halt of tourism to Mount Keumgang and Kaesong have amounted to 628.5 billion Won over the last two years. According to a report submitted to the National Assembly by the Korea Tourism Association on the impact of halting these tourism projects, losses of 548.2 billion Won had been incurred by August, and that is expected to grow to 628.5 billion Won by the end of the year.

Mount Keumgang tours were halted in July 2008, while Kaesong tours were stopped in November of the same year. Since then, the Korea Tourism Association has lost 10.5 billion Won in profits, while private-sector companies including Hyundai-Asan and its partners have lost 465.2 billion Won. In addition, restaurants, rest stops, visitor centers and other businesses in the border town of Koseong, Kangwon Province have lost 72.5 billion won due to the lack of tourists travelling across the border to Mount Keumgang, pushing total losses by the government and private sector to over 500 billion Won.

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
NK Brief No. 10-10-18-1
10/18/2010

The majority of joint ventures investing in North Korea have suffered significant losses since the South Korean government began to enforce sanctions as a result of the sinking of the ROKS Cheonan. On average, companies have incurred losses of almost one billion won, and most companies are no longer interested in investing in the North.

According to the Korea Chamber of Commerce and Industry, a survey of 500 companies (200 inter-Korean economic cooperative schemes and 300 other companies involved in business with the North) showed that 93.9 percent of respondents said they had suffered losses due to trade restrictions put in place due to the Cheonan incident, while 66.5 percent responded that they faced “financial difficulty” due to the sanctions. The companies have suffered an average of 974 million won in losses.

Investment and operational losses due to the ‘all stop’ order from the government amounted to 51.9 percent of losses reported, while 26 percent of respondents pointed to a reduction in orders and 22.1 percent blamed an increase in transportation and other associated costs. One company importing anthracite from the North turned to China, Vietnam, Russia, and other vendors after inter-Korean trade was restricted, but due to each country’s efforts to secure its own natural resources, this year’s sales are expected to be more than 10 billion won less than that seen last year.

Another company, investing in textiles, was strategically producing hand-made works in a North Korean factory, but now production has come to a halt and it may not be able to deliver goods it has produced. A source from the factory stated, “Personnel and raw material expenses in China, Vietnam, and other countries mean that profit margins will be minimal, and there is no alternative.” The same source also stated, “Special funds were distributed from the government, but [companies] are concerned about how long they can hold out.”

As companies invested in North Korea suffer losses in the wake of the Cheonan incident, interest in North Korea investment opportunities is also waning. 82.7 percent of responding companies believe that “even if economic cooperation was normalized, there would be no new investments or continuation of existing projects,” and 76.9 percent of respondents believed that “because of the uncertainty of the North Korean system” non-economic issues would dampen investment enthusiasm. 13.7 percent stated that difficulties with transportation and other infrastructure issues would discourage investment, and 9.4 percent of respondents answered, “North Korean authorities’…interference and restrictions” would turn away foreign investors.

Among those businesses not involved in cooperative economic ventures, 41.5 percent pointed to “North Korea’s overall reform and opening,” while 22.2 percent chose “guaranteeing the security of investments and expanding domestic SOC” as being necessary to propel investment in North Korea. Another 19.7 percent answered, “security issues like North Korean denuclearization” were necessary for improvement in the investment environment.

Many also voiced concerns over the ongoing ban on inter-Korean exchanges. When asked about the impact on business if sanctions against the North were to continue, 5.18 percent of respondents stated, “opportunities for foreign investors will suffer,” while 25.6 percent responded that the North’s economic reliance on China would grow, and 22.6 percent feared that the national image would suffer due to an increase in the security risk.

63.6 percent of respondents call for strengthened protection for investors, including protection against losses as well as guarantees on operational freedoms. 20.1 percent called for easing restrictions on businesses in the Kaesong Industrial Complex, and 16.3 percent pointed to the need for more monetary support.

Even after the government’s announcement halting inter-Korean exchanges on May 24, , inter-Korean trade worth approximately 80 million USD (90 billion won) was recorded due to a number of goods with special exceptions. 639 different cases of imported goods manufactured from raw materials or parts sent to the North prior to the May 24 restrictions amounted to 31.15 million USD, while 269 cases of pre-ordered exports amounted to just over 49 million USD.

This survey was conducted from August 12 to September 1, calling or faxing 200 companies invested in inter-Korean cooperative schemes and 300 of the 1000 companies involved in sales.