North Korean Economy Watch

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
NK Brief No.10-02-03-1
2/3/2010

In order to meet this year’s economic goals, North Korean authorities are calling on the people to launch an “all-out offensive”. Day after day, North Korea media outlets are calling for “continuing reform” and “continuing improvements,” even introducing a new motivational song titled, “It’s a war of attack.”

The slogan “all-out offensive” is designed to encourage the people of North Korea to pour all efforts into attaining the best results in each area of the economy. It is not uncommon for the North to use military terms such as this to motivate its citizens for non-military mobilization drives.

According to the (North) Korean Central News Agency (KCNA), the front page of the January 29 issue of the Rodong Sinmun carried an editorial titled, “Raise the fighting spirit of 10 million soldiers, and advance the all-out fighting spirit of this year,” while the second page of the same paper carried a political commentary titled, “Let’s practically demonstrate.”

The editorial called on citizens of the North to work toward improving the standard of living and improving the lives of the people, and stressed, “The on-going ideological campaign is an all-out offensive for remarkably increasing the speed of the advance for effecting a great surge with the might of the perfect unity of the leader and all the service personnel and people and a charge for giving fullest play to their mental power so that events adding luster to the era of Songun may take place one after another,” and, “The on-going general offensive is sure to triumph when all the people live and struggle as the brave, staunch and devoted vanguard in the advance for effecting a great surge.” On January 20 and 22, the same paper had run similar articles, calling for the “spirit of victors” and “marching forward as quickly as possible.”

That North Korean authorities have gone so far as to launch the song “It’s a war of attack” gives the impression that there is an air of urgency surrounding these ongoing efforts to mobilize the people. Also reflecting this urgency is the fact that this year, Kim Jong Il has carried out more public activities than during January 2009. As of January 26, Kim Jong Il had made 14 public appearances. This was 56% more than the first month of last year, during which Kim had made the most visits since launching the 1st Kim Jong Il regime in 1998.

Of those 14 appearances, 7 were on-site inspections of enterprises and other economic sites, while only 6 visits were military-related. The remaining visit was to the central court; There were no meetings with foreign dignitaries or other foreign diplomacy-related activities. One military-related visit of interest was to a self-sufficient pig farm run by the army. January’s visit was Kim’s third to the farm, where he advised managers to “raise more pigs and provide more pork and pork products to the soldiers,” an indirect reference to the seriousness of food shortages among the North’s military.

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
NK Brief No.10-01-19-1
2010-01-19

Last year, despite the impact of the economic recession, North Korea’s second nuclear test and other issues hindering inter-Korean exchanges, the previously sharply shrinking value of North-South Korean trade appeared to steady.

According to a report from the South Korean Customs Administration released on January 18, inter-Korean trade last year was down 8.5 percent from the previous year, amounting to 1.66608 billion USD. Exports to North Korea were worth 732.62 million USD, while 933.46 million USD worth of goods were brought into South Korea, giving Seoul a 200 million dollar trade deficit. Inter-Korean trade hit its lowest point last year in February (100.89 million USD), but since then showed slow-but-steady growth, hitting 173.18 in September.

In the aftermath of last year’s economic recession, together with the North Korean nuclear test, naval clashes in the West Sea in the area of the Northern Limit Line, etc., there were many difficult issues in 2009, but as inter-Korean trade numbers recovered in the fourth quarter, tensions eased slightly. Despite strained political tensions between the two Koreas, trade seemed not to be seriously affected, as DPRK goods were offloaded from a North Korean ship at Incheon Harbor and replaced with silica used for metal casting just six days after a clash between North and South Korean naval ships.

While growing trade is positive, this is the second year in a row South Korea has recorded a trade deficit with the North. In 2008, Seoul’s cross-border imports exceeded imports by 53.96 million USD. With Lehman Brothers’ collapse in September 2008 and the economic stagnation that followed, the South continued to record trade deficits for 15 straight months, until November of last year.

In December 2009, South Korean trade was back in the black (23.91 million USD) for the first time in 16 months. Looking back over time, it can be seen that inter-Korean trade has improved considerably over the years, recording a mere 705.68 million USD in 2004, 1.08872 billion USD in 2005, climbing to 1.3796 billion in 2006 and 1.79494 billion USD in 2007, and 1.82078 billion USD in 2008.

The import of North Korean sand, mushrooms, and smokeless charcoal briquettes in October 2009 required the permission of the South Korean government. This reflects Seoul’s more strict controls over management and oversight of inter-Korean trade following the sanctions and heightened concerns over cash deliveries to Pyongyang after its second nuclear test on May 25, 2009. Since the nuclear test, the South Korean government has limited the import of North Korean goods to only those that could ease losses being suffered by South Korean manufacturers.

According to the South Korean Ministry of Unification, among North Korean exports to the South in 2008, sand was the largest (according to value) export, with charcoal ranking ninth and (pine) mushrooms ranking eighteenth. 

Yonhap offered a short blurb: 

Trade between South and North Korea declined 8.5 percent on-year in 2009 due mainly to the worldwide economic slowdown that sapped demand and investments, a government report said Monday.

The Korea Customs Service (KCS) said inter-Korean trade reached US$1.66 billion last year, down from a record high of $1.82 billion tallied for 2008.

Read the full article here:
Inter-Korean trade falls off 8.5 pct in 2009
Yonhap
1/18/2009

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
(NK Brief No.10-01-06-1)
2010-01-06

On January 1, North Korea published its annual New Year’s Joint Editorial in the Rodong Sinmun (official newspaper of the Central Committee of the Workers’ Party of Korea), Josonimmingun (newspaper of the Korean People’s Army), and the Chongnyonjonwi (newspaper of the Central Committee of the Kim Il Sung Socialist Youth League).

The editorial introduces North Korea’s general policy direction for 2010. In the international realm, the editorial highlights the establishment of a peace regime between Pyongyang and Washington, as well as improving inter-Korean relations. Domestically, the editorial focused on improving the standard of living for the people by improving agriculture and light industries. It appears that the North has decided to focus on domestic and international stability.

This policy approach appears to be an attempt to strengthen the basis for the North’s drive to build a ‘Strong and Prosperous Nation’ by 2012, but in the mid- to long-term, it also seems to have been adopted with Kim Jong-eun’s succession in mind.

This year’s joint editorial focused primarily on the North’s economy. More than anything, it centered on improving the lives of the people by boosting light-industrial and agricultural output. This was highlighted in the editorial’s title, “Bring about a radical turn in the people’s standard of living by accelerating the development of light industry and agriculture once again this year that marks the 65th anniversary of the founding of the Workers’ Party of Korea,” and was a consistent theme throughout the article.

Focusing on increased economic output specifically in light industry and agriculture, it is clear that the Kim Jong Il regime is seeking to boost public support by solving food and clothing shortages.

It is also noteworthy that in the editorial’s section on the economy, there is absolutely no mention of the ‘national defense industry’ that has been prominent in previous New Year’s Joint Editorials. National defense has been prioritized in previous joint editorials, with one article emphasizing that “everything necessary for the national defense industry must first be ensured in order to meet the economic line of the Military-First Era.” The defense industry was briefly mentioned, however, in the editorial’s section emphasizing the importance of scientific and technological development.

Substantial points of the economic portion of the editorial include the following:

- The need to “bring about a radical turn in the people’s standard of living by accelerating the development of light industry and agriculture once again this year that marks the 65th anniversary of the founding of the Workers’ Party of Korea.”

-“Light industry and agriculture are the major fronts in the efforts for the improving of the peoples’ standard of living. . . . an all-Party, nationwide effort should be directed to mass-producing consumer goods.”

-“The agricultural sector should sharply increase grain output by thoroughly applying the Party’s policy of agricultural revolution, like improving seeds, double cropping and improving potato and soybean farming.”

-“We should radically increase state investment in fields related to the people’s lives, and all sectors and units should supply fully and in time the raw and other materials needed for the production of light-industrial goods.”

-“We should gain access to more foreign markets, and undertake foreign trade in a brisk way to contribute to economic construction and the improvement of the people’s standard of living.”

-“Socialist principles should be maintained in commodity circulation, and the quality of welfare services should be decisively improved.”

-“The fundamental secret of making a new leap in this year’s general offensive is in launching a campaign to push back the frontiers of science and technology in all sectors.”

-“The defense industry sector, a major front in pushing back the frontiers of science and technology, should continue to lead the efforts to open the gate to a great, prosperous and powerful country.”

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
NK Brief No.09-12-21-1
12/21/2009

The Korean Central Broadcasting Station (KCBS) announced on December 16 that the North Korean Supreme People’s Assembly Standing Committee has revised the North’s Real Estate Management Law, the Commodities Consumption Level Law, the General Equipment Import Law, and other laws related to economic management. This on the heels of the November 30th announcement, when authorities announced across-the-board currency reform measures, apparently in an attempt to regain control of the country’s market economy.

The KCBS reported that the Real Estate Management Law “regulates fundamental issues of real estate registration and inspection, use, and payment of user fees,” but offered no further details.

Since 2006, North Korean authorities established new offices in each city, county, and region throughout the country. These offices were responsible for surveying property, occupied and vacant, claimed by organizations and businesses, as well as recording the size of each structure on these lands.

In the mid-1990s, with the onset of serious food shortages, food rations to workers were halted and North Korean authorities from every branch and level (including the military, railway, business enterprises) were encouraged to distribute foodstuffs in ways more beneficial to themselves. These authorities planned to resolve food distribution issues through agricultural moves.

The new Real Estate Management Law appears to be aimed at labeling land used for private purposes as strategic nationalized land and strengthening the state’s ability to collect real estate taxes. However, the broadcaster failed to explain in detail how this restructuring would occur.

By enacting the Commodities Consumption Level Law, North Korean authorities can control the basis at which goods are injected into each production sector. This appears to be in preparation for taking cost-reduction measures for enterprises related to production in each region. The broadcaster explained that there were legal demands for the enactment and enforcement of regulations on the level of consumption.

The General Equipment Import Law newly regulates import plans, contracts, and the use of goods by factories, schools, hospitals, ships and broadcasters in an effort to control quality. In each sector, the measure prevents double-investment and controls consumption competition.

As these economic control measures are focused on factories and other bases of production along with importers, it appears that, in conjunction with the recent currency reform, North Korean authorities are attempting to control production quality on all levels. For example, as the North is suffering ongoing supply difficulties due to a lack of materials, the law on consumption levels is an attempt to restrict goods by forcefully managing demand. The law on imports appears to be in an effort to regulate general-use goods in light of the increased reliance on foreign equipment.

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
NK Brief No. 09-11-04-2
11/4/2009

The North Korean monthly publication “Chollima” stressed in a recent (September, 2009) edition the need to improve efficiency in production and administrative activities, emphasizing that if the North is to succeed at becoming an “economic power,” then economic management and administrative activities need to become “informationalized.”

In an article titled “Informationalization of Economic Management and Administrative Activity,” the magazine stated, “In order to meet the demands for science and technology development in the era of the information industry, improvement of the socialist economic management has emerged as an important issue.”

The magazine also offered a solution, suggesting that computers and IT resources be ensured first in order to “informationalize” economic management and administrative activities, and that communications equipment be modernized, stating that construction of basic facilities was an urgent task.

In addition, program industries used in the economic sector should be developed, and planning, statistical, and accounting programs, in particular, need to be connected across the country.

Along with this, the magazine noted that the development of information science is closely related to that of information technology, and that research efforts regarding information science need to be strengthened. The article called for further development of basic elementary management systems education, information theory research, and, of course, systems engineering, legal administration, and other economic science fields.

“Informationalization” of economic management and administrative activities is based on IT resources, and focuses on automating statistical and accounting practices in order to strengthen economic management controls and to boost productivity and efficiency.

On August 11, the Rodong Sinmun also emphasized “informationalization,” referring to the current times as the “information economy age” and the “informationalization age,” stating that “today’s war, absent the sound of gunfire, is a war of brains, a technology war,” and, “technological revolution is bravely marching forward at breakneck speed.”

UPDATE 8:   According to the BBC, Orascom claims the final plans for the hotel have yet to be approved:

Dozens of Egyptian engineers and some 2,000 local workers are working on the Ryugyong project, which Orascom’s chief operating officer Khaled Bichara tells the BBC is “progressing well”, despite reported problems with suspect concrete and misaligned lift shafts.

“There have been no issues that have caused us too much trouble,” Mr Bichara says. “Most of the work at the moment is coverage of different areas of the building. The first job is to finish the outside - you can’t work on the insides until the outside is covered.

“You can see that we have already completed the top of the building where the revolving restaurant will be. After 2010, that’s when it will be fully safe to start building from the inside.”

How the building will be divided up is not yet finalised the company says, but it will be a mixture of hotel accommodation, apartments and business facilities. Antennae and equipment for Orascom’s mobile network will nestle at the very top.

Mr Bichara denies reports that the company’s exclusive access to North Korea’s fledgling telecoms market is directly linked to the completion of the hotel.

But he says the job is a way of planting a rather tall flag in the ground. “We haven’t been given a deadline, we are not tied into doing it by a certain time,” he said.

“But when you work in a market like this, where we cannot sponsor things, a project of this kind is good to do - it’s word of mouth advertising for us, it builds good rapport with the people - on its own it’s a great symbol, one which cements our investment.”

Read the full article here:
Will ‘Hotel of Doom’ ever be finished?
BBC
10/15/2009

Read previous posts about the Ryugyong’s construction below: (more…)

Photo by Eric Lafforgue

North Korean claims record production gains through ‘150-day battle’
Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
NK Brief No. 09-10-12-1
10/12/2009

It has been boasted that North Korea’s ‘150-day Battle’ to boost the economy (April 20-September 16) resulted in record-breaking jumps in DPRK production numbers, and it has been suggested that that by 2012, some enterprises will “attain production numbers higher than the best numbers recorded at the end of the 1980s.” This claim was made by Ji Young-il, the director of the Chosun University Social Science Research Institute, which is run by the pro-Pyongyang “General Federation of Korean Residents in Japan.”

In “Professor Ji Young-il’s Monthly Economic Review: The 150-day Battle and Prospects for Building an Economically Powerful Nation,” an article in the federation’s newspaper, Choson Sinbo, the author wrote, “There are more than a few enterprises that have set production goals for 2012 at more than three times the current level of production.” He also claimed that some enterprises in the mining, energy and railroad transportation sectors had set goals of as much as 6 times today’s production numbers.

Professor Ji went on to write, “Basically, it is an extraordinary goal ensuring growth of 1.3-1.5 times (a growth rate of 130-150%) per year.” He also explained that surpassing production rates as high as those seen in the late 1980s is one of the fundamental markers on the road toward “opening the door to a Strong and Prosperous Nation.”

Citing North Korea’s “Choson Central Yearbook,” he gave production numbers in various sectors of the DPRK economy at the end of the 1980s: electricity, 55.5 billion kWh (1989); coal, 85 million tons (1989); steel, 7.4 million tons (1987); cement, 13.5 million tons (1989); chemical fertilizer, 5.6 million tons (1989); textiles, 870 million meters (1989); grain, 10 million tons (1987).

Director Ji claimed that during the recent ‘battle’, production in the metals industries was up several times that of the same period in previous years, while energy producers generated several hundred million kWh of electricity, coal production was up 150%, and cement and other construction materials were up 140%. He pointed out that in 14 years of the Chollima movement, beginning in 1957, during which socialist industrialization took place in the North, the yearly average production growth was 19.1%, and he stated that the annual growth of 9 to 10% in industrial production over the past several years was a noteworthy record.

Moving to the agricultural sector, Director Ji also noted that while overseas experts have critiqued this year’s harvest, there has been a definite breakthrough in grain production with land cultivation hitting previously unseen levels over the past several years.

Previous 150-day battle stories below:
(more…)

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
NK Brief No. 09-10-7-1
10/7/2009

The March 2009 issue of the North Korean Journal Economic Research emphasized that with the strengthening of international economic sanctions against the North, actively participating in the “Battle for Savings” was essential in all sectors in order to construct a “strong and prosperous nation.”

The recently obtained academic journal called on readers to broaden the “savings battle” in an article titled, “Strongly Spreading the Battle for Savings Is an Important Measure for the Construction of an Economically Strong Socialist Nation.” The article stressed that the “savings battle” was necessary for the successful completion of large-scale industrial construction projects, such as the Huicheon Power Plant, as well as the construction of hundreds of thousands of private homes and pubic facilities. North Korean authorities consider these projects essential to the successful construction of a ‘strong and prosperous nation’ by 2012, the year marking the 100th anniversary of the birth of the late Kim Il Sung.

The journal reported that Kim Jong Il had ordered, “Instances of waste among workers and laborers is to be eliminated and the Battle for Savings strengthened.” It also offered, “The ‘Battle for Savings’ is one of the conditions necessary to be able to overcome the economic difficulties created by the Imperialists’ sanctions.”

The journal accused the United States of “villainously daring to carry out military pillaging and economic sanctioning measures” in order to blockade the North and reported that “American and Japanese Imperialists are not only sanctioning imported and exported goods, but are going as far as to interfere with loan accounts.” These statements may provide some insight into the economic and social difficulties the international sanctions are causing for North Korea.

The article went on to say that these circumstances demand that all people “Raise the revolutionary spirit of self-reliance and strenuous efforts while strengthening to new heights of the savings battle throughout all sectors of the People’s Economy.”

Furthermore, it stated that if the “Battle for Savings,” was strengthened, “The capital saved could increase the number, quality and variety of products, increasing the export base,” and, “foreign capital can be saved by closely managing and efficiently using materials which must be imported, such as crude petroleum and some raw materials and equipment.”

The article also evaluated the implementation of savings plans in factories and enterprises, stating, “Pilot projects to increase production need to be expanded through schemes such as prizes and money for saving of raw materials and increasing output by introducing overtime pay schedules.”

UPDATE 9/16/2009: Despite the downward trajectory that business in the Kaesong Zone seemed to be taking this year, things appear to have bottomed out.  According to Yonhap, the Koreas have signed a Kaesong wage increase.  According to the article:

South and North Korea agreed to a 5 percent wage hike at a joint industrial park on Wednesday, the Unification Ministry here said, in the latest sign of inter-Korean projects returning to normal.

North Korea earlier demanded a 400 percent raise in monthly wages for its workers at the South Korean-run park in Kaesong, just north of the border.

South Korea’s management office in Kaesong “signed an agreement on a 5 percent wage increase” with its North Korean counterpart, ministry spokesman Chun Hae-sung said in a brief statement.

The North voluntarily withdrew its earlier demand last week in a striking shift from its unyielding attitude in four rounds of negotiations from April to July. The demand called for monthly wages be raised to US$300 from the average $70-80, apparently in retaliation against Seoul’s hard-line policy toward Pyongyang.

The Kaesong park opened in late 2004 as an outcome of the first inter-Korean summit four years earlier. It houses 114 mostly small-sized South Korean firms producing clothing, electronic equipment, kitchenware and other labor-intensive goods with about 40,000 North Korean workers.

The venture is seen as a much-needed source of dollar income for the North, which is currently under U.N. sanctions for its May nuclear test that bans cash flows to the country.

The 5 percent rate hike will increase the minimum wage to about $58 from the current $55.

Separately, North Korea was conducting a door-to-door survey on South Korean businesses at the joint park, said ministry spokeswoman Lee Jong-joo.

North Korea asserted that the two-day survey that continues until Thursday was to examine the firms’ output and “listen to their complaints and difficulties regarding tax and accounting,” Lee said. Such on-site surveys have been done sporadically, she added.

Although tensions might have eased, it remains to be seen whether the business community can be coaxed into making serious capital investments in the DPRK.

Read previous Kaesong Industrial Zone news below:

(more…)

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
NK Brief No. 09-7-22-1
7/22/2009

According to a report released by the Korea Trade-Investment Promotion Agency (KOTRA), mineral products again topped the list of DPRK exports, accounting for 41.3 percent of goods sent out of the country last year. The KOTRA report, “2008 DPRK Trade Trends,” states that the North’s 2008 exports, totaling 1,130,213,000 dollars, increased by 23 percent over the 918.77 million USD-worth of goods exported in 2007.

With the exception of plastic and wooden goods, North Korean exports grew in all areas. Mineral products accounted for 41.3 percent; non-ferrous minerals made up 16.8 percent, textiles accounted for 10.6 percent; chemical plastics made up 7.6 percent; electrical and electronic machinery made up 7 percent; and animal products accounted for 3.6 percent.

Mineral goods were up 33.5 percent over last year, recording sales of 465.44 million USD. This sector has shown continuous growth over the last five years. In 2004, trade in these goods brought in 152.28 million USD; in 2005, 243.66 million USD; in 2006, 244.43 million USD; and in 2007, 349.58 million USD.

Since 2003, North Korea has concentrated on invigorating the light-industrial sector, and has emphasized the export of manufactured goods. However, last year, exports of mineral products and non-ferrous minerals combined to make up a total of 58.1 percent of all exports; the North has been unable to restructure its export sector or satisfactorily boost light-industrial manufacturing.

North Korea’s imports grew as well, to more than twice that of exports. Bringing in goods worth 2,685,478,000 USD, imports grew by 32 percent over the 2.023 billion in imports during 2007. In 2008, mineral products accounted for 25.9 percent of imports; fibers accounted for 11.9 percent; electrical and electronic machinery, 11.5 percent; processed food items, 8.8 percent; chemical and heavy industrial goods, 7.5 percent; and non-ferrous minerals, 6.6 percent. Import of fibers, processed food, and mineral products grew, while the import of animal products, vegetable products and automobiles fell.

Crude petroleum, the North’s largest import item, was imported exclusively from China, and was up 46.9 percent (414.31 million USD) over 2007 (281.97 million USD). However, due to the loss of other sources of fuel, overall imports of crude grew by a mere 1 percent.

Import of grains fell in 2008, recording only 86.24 million USD – a fall of 25.6 percent from the 115.86 million USD in grain imports during 2007. KOTRA explains that due to instability in the grain market, imports from China of rice and barley were halted in April, while corn imports were halted in August.

(Note: Here is the KOTRA web page.  It is not a user-friendly site and I was unable to find the report in English.)