North Korean Economy Watch

UPDATE 68 (2012-8-27): The Hankyoreh reports on a new study (order the study here) that asserts that the Cheonan could have been sunk by an abandoned South Korean mine.  According to the article:

An article has been published in an international academic journal arguing that the explosion that sank the South Korean Cheonan warship in March 2010 may not have been from a North Korean torpedo, but from a mine discarded by the South Korean navy.

This is the second scientific study on the Cheonan sinking published in an academic journal, the first being a seismic analysis published last year by Yonsei University Department of Earth System Sciences professor Hong Tae-kyung. That study supported the findings of the government’s joint investigation team.

In the study published in the international academic journal “Pure and Applied Geophysics,” Korea Seismological Institute director Kim So-gu and the Geophysical Institute of Israel’s Yefim Gitterman wrote that analysis of the seismic waves, acoustic waves and bubble frequency made it clear an underwater explosion took place.

They said the seismic magnitude of the explosion was 2.04, that of 136kg of TNT and equivalent to the individual yield of the large number of land control mines abandoned by the Korean navy after they were first installed in the 1970s.

The findings are noteworthy in that they differ greatly from those of the Civilian-Military Joint Investigation Group (MCNJIG), which found the cause of the sinking to be a North Korean CHT-02D torpedo with a yield of 250kg of TNT exploding at a depth of six to nine meters, producing a seismic yield of 1.5.

Read the full Hankyoreh story here.

UPDATE 67 (4/1/2011): A group of US lawmakers are working to add the DPRK back to the US list of state sponsors of terror.  According to Yonhap:

A bipartisan group of congressmen will soon submit legislation to re-designate North Korea as a state sponsor of terrorism for its torpedoing of a South Korean warship and shelling of a South Korean border island that killed 50 people last year, sources said Friday.

“I understand Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen has almost completed drafting the legislation, and she is likely to submit the legislation as soon as possible,” a congressional source said, adding several other Republican and Democratic congressmen are expected to sponsor the legislation.

Ros-Lehtinen (R-FL), chairwoman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, introduced similar legislation in May last year but it didn’t pass.

In June, she had wreaths laid at the tombs of the 46 South Korean sailors killed in the sinking of the warship Cheonan in waters near the western sea border with North Korea.

UPDATE 66 (3/31/2011): A member of North Korea’s National Defense Commission has now issued a statement about the Cheonan sinking, as well as a subsequent artillery shelling of Yeonpyeong Island by North Korean forces eight months later.  According to KCNA:

A spokesman for the inspection group of the DPRK National Defence Commission issued the following statement on Thursday:

One year has passed since warship “Cheonan” sank in the waters off Paekryong Island in the West Sea of Korea.

But the south Korean authorities and military warmongers, hell-bent on the inter-Korean stand-off and steeped in distrust in compatriots, are still linking the warship “Cheonan” sinking case with the DPRK and passing the buck for the Yonphyong Island shelling on it, escalating confrontation with it.

The inspection group of the NDC of the DPRK has already opened to the public the truth of the two cases twice.

At the outset of the occurrence of the “Cheonan” warship sinking case, the DPRK expressed regret at those who suffered the disaster from the viewpoint that they are members of the Korean nation though they were soldiers of the south Korean army who leveled guns at the DPRK.

Nevertheless, the south Korean authorities and military warmongers floated investigation results without any scientific ground and objective nature in a bid to deliberately lay obstacles in the way of achieving national reconciliation and unity and block the way of achieving peace and prosperity desired by all the fellow countrymen.

They have become evermore sinister and brazenfaced in their reckless anti-DPRK confrontation rackets with the first anniversary of the occurrence of the case as a momentum, in particular, only to touch off burning resentment of all the Koreans.

This situation compelled the inspection group of the NDC of the DPRK to re-clarify its principled stand internally and externally.

1. The south Korean authorities and military warmongers should no longer perpetrate such reckless act as linking the “Cheonan” warship sinking case with the DPRK.

Explicitly speaking once again, the DPRK has nothing to do with the case. This means something irrelevant to it can never be anything in which it is allegedly involved no matter how much water may flow under the bridge.

Any attempt to deliberately link the DPRK with the case while shunning this stark reality would only serve as a living testimony that they are only seeking to escalate confrontation with fellow countrymen and deteriorate inter-Korean relations.

The south Korean side walked out of the venue of the preliminary contact for opening the north-south high-level military talks without any patience. But it falsified the fact, claiming that the north was the first to walk out of the venue. They should stop such folly at an early date and no longer link the DPRK with the above-said case.

The further they bedevil inter-Korean relations while spreading the “story about the north’s involvement” full of lies and fabrications, the deeper pitfall of history they will find themselves.

The inspection group of the NDC will probe the truth about the “farce” by issuing the third and fourth statements till the above-said story has disappeared.

2. They should no longer work hard to pass the buck for the Yonphyong Island shelling on the DPRK.

Explicitly speaking, the above-said shelling incident was an unsavory case which occurred as they preempted a provocation against the DPRK.

Had they not preempted firing shells into the inviolable territorial waters of the DPRK, there would not have occurred the shelling on the island.

Various forms of firing exercises and drills targeted against the DPRK have frequently taken place in the areas of south Korea and waters around it for more than six decades since the division of the country. But the army of the DPRK has not taken any physical counteraction against them even once.

Any attempt to conceal the criminal preemptive shelling and shift the responsibility for it onto the other is an act of deceiving not only themselves but all the fellow countrymen and an anti-peace act little short of pulling the wool over the eyes of the whole world.

If they do not want to suffer the same disgrace as they did through the Yonphyong Island shelling incident, they should broad-mindedly halt such shameless act as shifting their blame onto the other and have a proper attitude to settle the issue.

Their oft-repeated talk about someone’s responsibility for the Yonphyong Island shelling would only harden the DPRK’s determination to protect the fair and aboveboard extension of the Military Demarcation Line in the West Sea.

3. The present south Korean authorities and military warmongers should stop the reckless anti-DPRK hysteria under the pretence of the two cases.

They are resorting to anti-DPRK confrontation rackets and reckless psychological warfare, anxiously waiting for “contingency” of someone to occur, and staging various forms of military exercises and drills, stoking a war atmosphere. But they should bear in mind that their much anticipated “contingency” is bound to take place in the south, not in the north.

Their anti-DPRK confrontation hysteria kicked up by them under the pretexts of the two cases is as foolish an act as shaking fist in the back lane after being hit hard in a street.

This is nothing but a thoughtless and traitorous action to calm down the distrust in the two cases shown by different circles of south Korea, settle the ever-growing “discord” in the south, adhere to the nonsensical “theory of principle” in dealing with the inter-Korean relations and stick to the wrong hard-line policy towards the north.

The inspection group of the National Defence Commission regards their anti-DPRK confrontation campaign being staged on the lapse of one year since the occurrence of the warship “Cheonan” sinking case as no more than a farce of “counting the age of a dead child”.

The DPRK wishes more ardently than anyone else to see the tension defused on the Korean Peninsula and achieve peace through the improved relations between the north and the south and this process leading to peace and prosperity of Northeast Asia and the rest of the world.

Precisely for this reason the DPRK proposed on its own initiative comprehensive dialogue and negotiations and has made every possible effort of goodwill to put them into practice.

The reality indicates that the nation is standing at the crossroads of detente and increased tension and peace and prosperity and war.

It is the stand of the Korean People’s Army to have bold dialogue or fight a real war.

The present south Korean authorities and puppet military warmongers should properly understand that they are standing on the crossroads of dialogue and war.

UPDATE 65: Production value at the Kaesong Industrial Zone returns to pre-Cheonan levels.

UPDATE 64: South Korea Abandons Demand for Apology Over Ship’s Sinking

UPDATE 63: DPRK offers samples to refute claims it sank the Cheonan.  According to Reuters:

North Korea offered on Tuesday to provide samples of its torpedoes to refute an international investigation that blamed Pyongyang for the sinking of a South Korean warship earlier this year.

UPDATE 62: Russia will not release its Cheonan report.  Read more in the Korea Times.

UPDATE 61: South Korea has issued another report claiming the DPRK is responsible.  Read about it here, here and here.

UPDATE 60: DPRK torpedo catalog includes name of torpedo exporter.

UPDATE 59: DPRK asked to hold summit before Cheonan incident.

UPDATE 58:  Russian team casts doubt on Cheonan findings.

UPDATE 57: The Daily NK reports that the alleged North Korean propeller came from Kagam, Kaechon county. 39°32’37.77″N, 125°50’47.24″E.

UPDATE 56: Barbara Demick writes about South Koreans skeptical of the government’s claims.

UPDATE 55: Nautilus Institute publishes inconsistencies in RoK Cheonan report.

UPDATE 54:  North Korean officials postpone warship talks with US (Washington Post)

UPDATE 53: UNSC condemns sinking but does not blame DPRK.

UPDATE 52: UNSC reaches deadlock.

UPDATE 51: North and South Korean ambassadors to South Africa exchange words at World Cup event

UPDATE 50: South Korea Rejects North on Joint Sinking Probe Idea

UPDATE 49: Cheonan Investigators Presented Wrong Torpedo Diagram

UPDATE 48: John McGlynn brings a skeptical eye to the Cheonan findings. 

UPDATE 47: Gomes has been threatened over the political fallout resulting from the sinking of the Cheonan.

UPDATE 46: EU Condemns N.Korea Over Cheonan Sinking

UPDATE 45:  UNSC raises no objections to RoK assessment of sinking.

UPDATE 44: 11 DPRK ships turned away from ROK waters 20 times.

UPDATE 43: South Korea adds regulatory barrier to inter-Korean trade.

UPDATE 42: Hankyoreh: Wide-ranging incompetence and cover-ups took place night of Cheonan sinking, audit reveals

UPDATE 41: South Korea has installed speakers along the DMZ (previously removed under the Sunshine Policy).  There seems to be some dispute about how many.  Korea Times says 2.  Yonhap says 11.

UPDATE 40: DPRK sends letter to UNSC.

UPDATE 39: Lankov was right.  The Russians are unconvinced. See here and here.

UPDATE 38: Russian experts complete investigation of Cheonan in Seoul but do not release findings. Lankov believes that the Russian government will come to know what actually happened, though their public comments will remain neutral.

UPDATE 37:  The Cheonan incident may have brought down the PM of Japan.

UPDATE 36: South Korea asks UN Security Council to act.

UPDATE 35: South Korea wants UN to send symbolic message, not increase sanctions.

UPDATE 34: China aims to be impartial.

UPDATE 33: Seoul still waiting for China to send an investigation team to examine the evidence.

UPDATE 32: Japan tightens sanctions.

UPDATE 31: South Korea refutes the DPRK’s counter-claims.  Read more here and here.

UPDATE 30: The South Korean govenrment delays propaganda broadcasts. Private groups continue to send propaganda. baloons.

UPDATE 29: The EU has cancelled a parliamentary delegation to the DPRK.

UPDATE 28: The Military Armistice Commission, under the United Nations Command (UNC), has completed its own investigation into the sinking of the “Cheonan” naval vessel.

UPDATE 27: The Russians have sent a team to Seoul to examine the ROK’s claims.

UPDATE 26: DPRK rejects ROK evidence. According to the AFP:

North Korea has flatly rejected evidence showing it torpedoed a South Korean warship with the loss of 46 lives, saying it does not even own a midget submarine allegedly used for the March attack.

The North’s powerful National Defence Commission (NDC), chaired by leader Kim Jong-Il, held a rare press conference on Friday and denied Pyongyang’s involvement, according to official North Korean media.

Major General Pak Rim Su, director of the policy department of the NDC, said the North does not have a 130-tonne “Yeono (salmon)-class” submarine, which the South says torpedoed its 1,200-ton corvette, the Cheonan, in the Yellow Sea.

“We don’t have anything like a 130-tonne Yeono-class submersible,” Pak was quoted by Pyongyang’s Chungang TV as telling reporters.

A multinational investigation led by Seoul concluded earlier this month that the March 26 sinking was caused by a torpedo attack from the North.

South Korean investigators said a Yeono class midget submarine had intruded into South Korean waters via international waters.

But Pak said: “It does not make any sense militarily that a 130-tonne submersible carrying a heavy 1.7-tonne torpedo travelled through the open sea into the South, sank the ship and returned home.”

But South Korea’s Yonhap news agency quoted South Korean officials as saying the North’s submarine fleet includes around 10 Yeono class submarines.

Pak also rebutted Seoul’s allegation that salvaged fragments of the torpedo matched design specifications that appeared on brochures the North allegedly sent to an unidentified potential buyer of North Korean torpedoes.

“Who in the world would hand over torpedo designs while selling torpedoes?” he said.

But Yonhap quoted an unidentified senior government official as saying that the South got hold of brochures sent by a North Korean state-run trading company to a potential weapons buyer that contain design specifications of three types of torpedoes.

Senior Colonel Ri Son Gwon dismissed as a “fabrication” a serial number hand-written on a torpedo fragment reading “1 bun” or number one.

South Korea said the serial number handwritten in Korean was strong evidence of Pyongyang’s involvement in the sinking.

“When we put serial numbers on weapons, we engrave them with machines,” Ri said. “We use ‘bun’ only for football or basketball players,” he said.

But South Korean investigators said the North also uses “bun” for numbering things to be assembled, attributing the information to defectors from North Korea.

Pak said the Seoul-led multinational team was not in a position to conduct an objective probe and attacked Seoul for rejecting Pyongyang’s demand to allow its own experts to investigate the cause of the sinking.

Voice of America has more.

UPDATE 25: Daily NK reports that DPRK is not on war footing.

UPDATE 24: China put in awkward position vis a vis South Korea, Japan.  See here, here, and here.

According to the New York Times:

Japan, which already bans trade with the North, said Friday that it would lower the limit on the amount of undeclared cash that could be carried to North Korea to 100,000 yen, or about $1,100, from the current 300,000 yen, or $3,300.

The maximum amount that can be sent to North Korea without being reported to the Japanese government was lowered to $33,000 from $110,000.

According to Washington Post:

A visit last week to Beijing and Seoul by Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton served, at least, to put China on the spot. Ms. Clinton rightly pressed the Chinese leadership to consider the commission’s 400-page report. She spoke publicly about the need for “a strong but measured response” to the incident as well as cooperation on the future direction of North Korea, which some experts believe may be unraveling.

China’s best response came Friday when Premier Wen Jiabao, on a visit to Seoul, reportedly told President Lee Myun-bak in a closed meeting that Beijing would not protect the North if it concluded that the North was responsible. South Korean officials took that as a hint that China might not oppose Mr. Lee’s plan to seek a U.N. Security Council resolution condemning the Kim regime. Yet China has offered no sign that it will take any action of its own to pressure the North, though it has far more leverage than any other country. Indeed, President Hu Jintao hosted Mr. Kim this month — and probably committed to supply him with more aid — even after the naval attack.

In the short term China’s behavior has benefited the United States. Watching Beijing defend the indefensible probably helped the Japanese government settle a dispute with the Obama administration over a U.S. base on Okinawa. It has shown South Koreans as well as people throughout Asia why the United States remains an indispensable guarantor of security in the region.

According to the LA Times:

South Korea and China are projected to do up to $200 billion in trade annually by 2012, according to Wen’s remarks Friday in Seoul; trade between China and North Korea is estimated at $1.5 billion.

UPDATE 23: The Financial Times puts together a list of scenarios which might explain the Cheonan’s sinking. I have paraphrased them below:

Revenge: North Korea wanted revenge for a sea battle in November, when one of its ships was badly damaged.

Succession: Some defectors have said he is trying to associate Jong-eun’s name with major successes in domestic propaganda.

Internal power struggle: Some analysts believe the attack could have been the work of a single rogue commander, possibly vying for patronage as the succession gathers pace. North Korea this month made the highly unusual announcement that it was removing Kim Il-chol, a senior admiral on the National Defence Commission, prompting speculation the navy could have exceeded its authority.

Reversion to hardline ideology: Some scholars say Kim Jong-il had, until last year, been increasingly open to advice from a more liberal faction, advocating market and currency reform. When this backfired, he had no choice but to listen more to Cold War-era ideologues.

Breakdown of command: Perhaps the most worrying of the possibilities is that Kim Jong-il is no longer in full command, possibly because of a stroke the North Korean leader suffered in 2008. This could mean the sinking was either the result of jostling commanders or poor judgment from Mr Kim himself. Andrei Lankov, a North Korea expert at Kookmin University in Seoul, believes the country has become a “rudderless ship” and that logical decision-making has fallen to pieces, as seen when Pyongyang revalued its currency to disastrous effect late last year.

Distract from economic woes: South Korea’s military intelligence argues the sinking of one of its warships by Pyongyang could distract from hunger and economic failure in the north.

Bitterness about G20 meeting in Seoul: Seoul has been turning its presidency of the G20 group of leading economies this year into domestic propaganda, parading how well it has developed economically since the Korean War of 1950-1953.

UPDATE 22: KCNA posts links to all of the DPRK’s official coments.

UPDATE 21: Lankov explains the inconsistent behavior of the South Korean government.

UPDATE 20:  South Korea halts all trade with the DPRK over the Cheonan incident.

UPDATE 19:(h/t Aidan Foster-Carter) DPRK military spokesman may be the same individual who led the capture of the USS Pueblo.  According to the Associated Press:

Evidence presented Thursday to prove North Korea fired a torpedo that sank a South Korean ship was fabricated by Seoul, North Korean naval spokesman Col. Pak In Ho told broadcaster APTN in an exclusive interview in Pyongyang.

He warned that any move to sanction or strike North Korea would be met with force.

“If (South Korea) tries to deal any retaliation or punishment, or if they try sanctions or a strike on us …. we will answer to this with all-out war,” he told APTN.

And according to KCNA (2003):

Pak In Ho, an officer and hero of the republic who was the head of the seven-member death-defying corps that captured the ship, briefs visitors on what the ship did, the combat for capturing it and the brazen-faced and crafty nature of the U.S. imperialists.

UPDATE 18: According to Reuters,  the United Nations Command (UNC) has launched an investigation into whether North Korea violated the Korean War armistice.  On Monday, South Korea will bring the case before the UNSC.

UPDATE 17: According to Voice of America,  the DPRK is demanding access to the ROK’s investigation of the Cheonan sinking.  Part of me wonders if the North Koreans even remember Park Wang-ja.

UPDATE 16: According to the Choson Ilbo:

…the submarine and support vessel left the base on Cape Bipagot, around 80 km from Baeknyeong Island on March 23 and maneuvered out of the sight of South Korean and U.S. intelligence. The ship apparently accompanied the submarine to provide support and offer aid in case the sub encountered difficulties. The submarine took a detour out into open seas and arrived in waters to the west of Baeknyeong Island on March 25. There it is believed to have awaited its prey 10 m under the surface for about a day.

Click image for larger version

You can click here to see satellite imagrey of all the DPRK’s south-western naval facilities, including Bipagot.

Also according to the same story in the Choson Ilbo:

The submarine class was unknown until now. The 130-ton sub ranks between the shark (325 tons) and a Yugo class (85 tons). Air Force Lt. Gen. Hwang Won-dong, the chief of the intelligence analysis team, said, the sub “is similar to the shark-class submarine and was built recently for export, equipped with night-vision equipment and other high-tech gadgets, as well as a unique structure to enhance its stealth capabilities.” Intelligence experts say the sub is the same as the three “Ghadir” class midget submarines the North exported to Iran.

Planeman has some terrific information on the sub type.  Check out these pictures from Bluffer’s Guide to Iranian Naval Power: Sub outside, Sub interior.

According to his web page:

Dimensions: L 29m, W 2.75m
Displacement : 120 tons dived
Crew: ?
Endurance: ?
Speed (est): 11kts surfaced, 8kts submerged
Powerplant: Diesel-electric

Armament: 2 x 533mm (21”) torpedo tubes with 2 torpedoes, Skhval rocket torpedoes or ~4 mines. Possibly submarine launched anti-ship missiles but unsubstantiated.

Of North Korean design, the IS-120 Ghadir (Qadir) submarine closely resembles the North Korean “P-4 Class”.

Some models of the Ghadir appear to have conventional cruciform tail fins with conventional propeller instead of the North Korean sub’s unconventional control plane arrangement and co-axel twin propeller. Photos of a production boat however show the unusual under-tail hydroplane position as per the North Korean boats. The coaxil twin props of the P-4 is replaced by a single skewed skrew in the usual place, plus a small ducted skrew mounted above, possible steerable. The exact reasoning for the two propellers is not clear but it is likely that the smaller one is intended for slow/quite running and counter-drift. Its mast and unusual snorkel (which folds backwards into the hull -casing when not in use) is almost identical however. It is possible that there are several iterations of boat with varying tail arrangements and snort-mast stowage (some appear to remain above the deck when folded).

Another charactristic which has yet to be explained is a small container mounted externally on the forward deck just ahead of the sail. This resembles an oil drum. One guess might be compressed gas.

Estimates of the size of this submarine vary greatly but video evidence confirms that there’s barely enough room to stand up in the hull.

UPDATE 15: More media (H/T NKnews.org)

North Korea threatens war in English-language radio broadcast: Audio clip on YouTube.

Clinton Condemns Attack on South Korean Ship
New York Times
Mark Landler
5/21/2010

U.N. Command to probe whether N. Korea violated armistice
Yonhap
Kim Deok-hyun
5/21/2010

Int’l Experts Agree on Cheonan Findings
Choson Ilbo
5/21/2010

How Did N.Korea Sink the Cheonan?
Choson Ilbo
5/21/2010

UPDATE 14: (5/20/2010) Today the South Korean government officially accused the DPRK of intentionally sinking the Cheonan with a torpedo from a submarine.  Here are a number of stories and documents:

Seoul vows retaliation after confirming N.K. torpedo sank warship
Yonhap
Kim Deok-hyun
5/20/2010

Irrefutable Evidence Implicates N.Korea, Says Lee
Choson Ilbo
5/20/2010

Cheonan Sinking: Photographic Evidence
Daily NK
5/20/2010

Pentagon won’t say ship sinking is an act of war
AP via Washington Post
Anne Flaherty and Matthew Lee
5/20/2010

The BBC offers a PDF of the findings of the investigatory panel.  It is available in PDF here.

What’s going on in Pyongyang
Korea Times
Andrei Lankov
5/20/2010

UPDATE 13: South Korea to formally accuse the DPRK.  According to the Washington Post:

South Korea concluded that North Korea was responsible for the attack after investigators from Australia, Britain, Sweden and the United States pieced together portions of the ship at the port of Pyeongtaek, 40 miles southwest of Seoul. The Cheonan sank on March 26 after an explosion rocked the 1,200-ton vessel as it sailed on the Yellow Sea off South Korea’s west coast.

The officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because South Korea has yet to disclose the findings of the investigation, said subsequent analysis determined that the torpedo was identical to a North Korean torpedo that South Korea had obtained.

Of the countries aiding South Korea in its inquiry, officials said that Sweden had been the most reluctant to go along with the findings but that when the evidence was amassed, it too agreed that North Korea was to blame. A spokesman for the Swedish Embassy declined to comment.

…

China has called on both parties to remain calm, but its fence-sitting risks damaging its ties with South Korea, East Asian officials said. “China wants to be a wise giant treating all parties the same,” said a senior diplomat. “But somebody committed murder here. This is ridiculous. This is a barometer for China. We are watching how they respond.”

To that end, South Korea will request that the U.N. Security Council take up the issue in an effort to tighten sanctions on North Korea, the officials said. The United States has indicated it would support such an action, U.S. officials said. President Obama and Lee spoke via telephone on Monday, according to the White House. Lee briefed Obama on the probe, the White House said, and the two “committed to follow the facts of the investigation wherever they lead.”

The Obama administration is also leaning toward relisting North Korea as a sponsor of terrorism, a move that would open the door for even more sanctions that could strike at the heart of North Korea’s economy.

…

Japanese Foreign Minister Katsuya Okada told his South Korean counterpart on Monday that Japan would also support taking the issue to the Security Council, the Japanese news media reported Tuesday.

It is unclear whether Beijing would support taking the issue to the Security Council; a senior Chinese official said China would first need proof that North Korea launched the attack.

Analysts said China would be reluctant to take strong measures against North Korea because its main interest is to keep the country intact. North Korea’s collapse would create hundreds of thousands of refugees and probably lead to the emergence of a Western-leaning united Korea on China’s border.

Also of interest….North-East Asia Matters translates a Choson ilbo piece which reports on the importance of some recovered torpedo fragments. According to the report, ” the joint investigation team reportedly was able to retrieve a pair of torpedo propellers in relatively good shape last week in the mud near the location where the Cheonan went down. After comparing the serial number imprinted on the retrieved propellers to a known North Korean sample, the investigation team reportedly found the font and the imprinting style used in the serial number of the retrieved propeller to be a match to the North Korean sample. Read more here.

More updates via NKnews.org:
1. Choson Ilbo on the torpedo serial numbers.
2. S. Korea briefs envoys of China, Russia, Japan on warship sinking

Read the full article here:
South Korea to officially blame North Korea for March torpedo attack on warship
Washington Post
John Pomfret and Blaine Harden
5/19/2010

UPDATE 12: South Korean Ministries asked to stop DPRK aid.

UPDATE 11: South Korea freezes spending on the DPRK.

UPDATE 10: Bermudez speculates on the DPRK’s submarines.

UPDATE 9: South Korea is examining DPRK trade and investment.

UPDATE 8: Here are the DPRK’s naval bases in the area where the Cheonan sank.

UPDATE 7: Seoul considers how it can respond should the DPRK be behind the sinking of the Cheonan.  It considers resuming broadcasts across the DMZ, reducing imports from the DPRK, and refraining from giving the DPRK a free feed of the World Cup.

UPDATE 6: According to the New York Times explosive residue has been detected on the Cheonan:

“It is true that traces of RDX, a chemical substance used in making torpedoes, have been found,” Defense Minister Kim Tae-young said Monday, referring to a component common to many military explosives. He said that there was “a high possibility” that a torpedo was the cause of the explosion, but that it was also too soon to conclude definitively that it was the cause.

The material was found on the ship’s smokestack and in samples of sand from the site of the sinking, said Rear Adm. Moon Byung-ok, a spokesman for the investigation team. He noted that RDX is also used in making mines.

UPDATE 5: Evan Ramstad writes in the Wall Street Journal how this event could influence the South Korean elections:

As South Korea gets closer to understanding what happened to a naval ship that sank near the maritime border with North Korea last month, the incident is shaping up to be a major influence on a legislative election in June that will be the political event of the year here.

The sinking of the Cheonan patrol ship on March 26 is already the most difficult challenge President Lee Myung-bak has faced since he took office in early 2008. It led to the death of 46 South Korean sailors—the most in a military incident here since the 1980s. And it raised suspicions of North Korean involvement, because it occurred near the inter-Korean maritime border where the South’s navy sent a North Korean vessel back in flames after a skirmish last November.

It also happened as South Korea nears the biennial legislative election on June 2, a vote that comes near the halfway point of Mr. Lee’s five-year tenure and, until the Cheonan incident, appeared likely to be a referendum on his policies and handling of the economic crisis.

“Generally speaking, people have a fairly high level of satisfaction with Lee government, especially over the economy,” says Kang Won-taek, a political scientist at Soongsil University in Seoul. “But people tend to use this election, like the U.S. mid-term election, to send a warning signal against the incumbent government.”

Now, the Cheonan sinking has added a new element. Politicians from Mr. Lee’s ruling conservative Grand National Party and a related faction are staking out a hard line in case North Korea is involved. The leader of a minority conservative party has already called for a military strike.

Meanwhile, opposition politicians, in progressive and nationalist parties, are using the incident to criticize Mr. Lee’s administration, with some seeking the resignation of top military officials.

North Korea stepped into the fray this weekend when its state-run news agency on Saturday relayed a commentary from an unidentified military source that blamed South Korea for the sinking and said Mr. Lee’s government was trying to use it against the North. However, the statement did not explicitly deny North Korean involvement in the sinking.

Last week, a salvage crew raised the stern of the ship from 37 metersof water and investigators found the bodies of 36 sailors inside. The stern sank first, while the bow floated for several hours as 58 sailors clung to it and were rescued.

Mr. Lee and top defense officials have said they won’t be able to determine what caused the sinking until the ship is fully recovered. Another salvage crew will begin lifting the bow, which settled in about 21 meters of water, as soon as Monday.

Survivors say the Cheonan was rocked by an external explosion. A preliminary examination of the stern confirmed that assessment, the military’s chief investigator said Friday, but he added that it will take more time to know whether it was struck by a torpedo or a mine.

If North Korea is found to be involved, Mr. Lee and his party may get a boost in what Mr. Kang called a “rally around the flag effect.” The political scientist added, “At the same time, the Cheonan case shows some poor performance of the incumbent government in military affairs and will lead to some discussion of political accountability.”

If North Korea is found to have caused the sinking, Mr. Lee will face a difficult decision over how to respond. Mr. Lee hasn’t publicly discussed his options, but analysts say they include economic penalties like cutting off more trade with Pyongyang, a return to the use of radio broadcasts to send messages to North Koreans and a variety of military strikes.

On Sunday, South Korean foreign minister Yu Myung-hwan told KBS, a South Korean TV network, that the country will likely first ask the United Nations Security Council to become involved in imposing a penalty if North Korea caused the sinking.

Much of the North Korean commentary released Saturday on the sinking was devoted to its effect on South Korean politics. North Korea’s authoritarian government has for years favored nationalist politicians in the South and has heaped criticism on Mr. Lee since shortly after he took office.

“If public opinion is built to claim that the accident occurred due to ‘an internal factor’ and its cause is not properly clarified, the group of traitors will be held directly responsible for it and, accordingly, will not be able to escape a heavy defeat in the forthcoming ‘June 2 local elections’,” the commentary said.

The language bore the assumption—which is standard in North Korea—that South Korea is actually a wayward part of a country that Pyongyang should run, is governed by traitors to its regime and conducts unfair elections. The commentary went on: “This will lead to the split of the conservative camp including the ‘Grand National Party’ and the weakening of its ruling power, throwing the group into an inescapable predicament.”

UPDATE 4: The Cheonan has been recovered and signs point to an external explosion (torpedo or mine).  According to Reuters (via MSNBC):

The likelihood North Korea sank a South Korean naval ship near their disputed border rose when Seoul said on Friday an external explosion probably caused the ship to split in two, killing dozens.

South Korea’s defense minister said this month the 1,200-tonne Cheonan may have been hit by a torpedo, immediately putting suspicion on North Korea and stoking concerns that the incident could start a conflict on the long divided peninsula.

“Conclusively, after a visual inspection, there is a higher chance of an outer explosion than an internal one,” Yoon Duk-yong, a top investigation official, told a news conference.

UPDATE 3: Aidan Foster-Carter provides context for the sinking.  Read his piece in the Asia Times here.

UPDATE 2: Andrei Lankov offers a rationale for the South Korean government’s handling of the situation.  According to the Herald Tribune (via the New York Times):

On the evening of March 26, Cheonan, a 1,200-ton South Korean corvette, was on patrol in coastal waters near the disputed border with North Korea when its stern was suddenly torn away by a powerful explosion.

The warship sank within a few minutes, taking the lives of 46 sailors. The South Korean government initially assumed the warship was attacked by a North Korean submarine and put its military on high alert.

However, the next morning the South Korean government began to work hard to dismiss or at least downplay the probability of a North Korean attack. President Lee Myung-bak and his officials warned against “premature conclusions” and emphasized that there was no definite evidence linking the Cheonan disaster to North Korea.

They might be right: despite occasional bouts of bellicose rhetoric, North Korea is currently in a negotiating mood (that is, seeking to squeeze more money from the outside world). But the evidence points to an external explosion roughly equivalent to that of 180 kilograms of TNT, so a mine or torpedo are the most plausible explanations.

If so, why is the Seoul government dismissing such an option? There are good reasons for this. If North Korean involvement was established, the Seoul government would face a hard choice: it would have to retaliate or be seen as spineless. This is a lose-lose situation for South Korea, since it has no way of “punishing” the North.

Full-scale war is out of the question. The military balance leaves almost no doubt that a war would be won by the South (with some American involvement), but the price of victory would be unacceptably high.

The Seoul metropolitan area, home to half of South Korea’s population, lies within range of a heavy concentration of North Korean artillery. A massive artillery barrage would leave many thousands dead and devastate vital parts of the country. Any advance north across difficult and heavily fortified mountainous terrain would also be very costly — not to mention the costs of postwar reconstruction.

So nothing short of a massive North Korean attack on major population centers in the South would likely be seen by Seoul as sufficient cause for a large-scale military operation.

Limited actions, such as raids against the North Korean naval and military installations, would make the Seoul government look strong in the eyes of voters, but would create many problems for which the same voters would soon start blaming the government.

Plus, such raids are useless. Kim Jong Il and his henchmen would not lose sleep if they learned that a few dozen North Korean sailors or soldiers were killed in a South Korean attack. In the North, even the death of many thousands is politically irrelevant so long as they are not members of Kim’s inner circle. At the same time, such raids would scare investors away from South Korea and damage its financial rating.

Financial sanctions, such as closing the Kaesong industrial park, a joint South-North economic development, or freezing the few remaining exchange projects, might seem attractive at first glance, but in the long run could be counterproductive. Contrary to some assumptions, the Kaesong park and other exchange projects are damaging for Kim Jong Il, since they represent a potentially dangerous contact with the outside world.

Without any means of retaliating, Lee Myung-bak’s administration may have decided to play down the likelihood of North Korea’s involvement or at least portray it as one of several possible explanations.

Whether North Korea was involved or not, the Cheonan affair is a sober reminder that if North Korea did choose to become aggressive again, not much could be done to counter it. Partial operations might be impressive but are inefficient, and large-scale retaliation would likely be quietly blocked by the South Koreans. This is understandable — they’re the ones who live on the front line.

(more…)

According to the Christian Science Monitor:

South Korea said Monday it was freezing government funds for North Korea, just days before the findings of an international investigation into the sinking of the Cheonan warship are scheduled for release.

Tensions have been high since the Cheonan was torn in half by an unexplained explosion and sank on March 26, killing 46 South Korean sailors. It is widely suspected that the explosion came from a North Korean torpedo, but the South has avoided directly accusing the North, saying it will wait until the results of the investigation are announced.

But South Korea’s decision to scale back contact with North Korea may be a sign that it is preparing for the probe’s findings, which will be released by Thursday. The South suspended funding for government-level exchanges with North Korea at 10 ministries. Seoul has already asked South Korean companies not to ink new deals with Pyongyang or send resources across the border, reports Agence France-Presse.

…

After the Cheonan report is released the South is expected to ask the United Nations Security Council to place new sanctions on the culprit. AFP reports that the South is also considering halting trade with the North and resuming loudspeaker broadcasts on the border that criticize the North’s regime in Pyongyang.

Because Russia and China have vetoes on the Security Council the South is hoping to present “a smoking gun” indicating the North’s involvement. That would leave Russia and China little room to oppose more sanctions on Pyongyang. South Korean Defense Minister Kim Tae-young has said the report will leave little doubt as to who was responsible and after its release South Korea would “work out the next step in a clear and stern manner.”

Read the full story below:
South Korea freezes North Korea money ahead of Cheonan warship sinking report
Christian Science Monitor
Kristen Chick
5/17/2010

According to Interconnected World:

Secrecy normally shrouds military relations between Burma and its strategic allies such as China and North Korea, but intelligence sources suggest ongoing military ties with these two countries are helping the Burmese generals’ to achieve their military ambitions, including that of becoming a nuclear power.

Intelligence sources said top junta generals have held late- night meetings in Naypyidaw in the last two months, discussing military modernization, foreign relations, tension with ethnic groups and suppressing dissidents in urban areas.

They said the junta bought weapons from China and North Korea including mid-range missiles and rocket launchers in April, and suggested the war office in Naypyidaw chose the month when the Burmese celebrate new year in order to avoid public scrutiny.

Equipment necessary to build a nuclear capability was reportedly among imported military supplies from North Korea that arrived at the beginning of the holidays.

A report from Rangoon in April also referred to an undisclosed vessel believed to be connected with North Korea that was seen at Thilawar Port, near Rangoon. Burmese officials at the time said the vessel was there to load Burmese rice destined for North Korea.

Military relations between Naypyidaw and Pyongyang have been attracting attention from analysts, diplomats and journalists in recent years. In August 2009, an article in Sydney Morning Herald alleged the Burmese junta aims to get an atomic bomb in five years using Burmese enriched uranium and North Korean nuclear technology.

Apart from nuclear know-how and equipment, Pyongyang has also provided the Burmese junta’s armed forces with truck-mounted multiple rocket launchers, surface-to-air and surface-to-surface missiles and technology for underground warfare since the early 2000s, according to experts on Burma’s military like Andrew Selth.

“Pyongyang needs Burmese primary products, which Naypyidaw can in turn use to barter for North Korea arms, expertise and technology,” wrote Andrew Selth in the Australian Journal of International Affairs in March.

Read the full article here:
Burma said buying arms from China, North Korea
Interconnected World
5/10/2010

According to Yonhap:

North Korea has recently deployed about 50,000 special forces along its border with South Korea, a source here said Wednesday, as tension rises on the divided peninsula over a suspected deadly North Korean attack on a South Korean warship.

“North Korea recently completed the frontline deployment of seven light infantry divisions, which is something it had been pushing for since two to three years ago,” the high-level source said, adding each division consists of about 7,000 troops.

North Korea has in recent years increased the number of its special forces to 180,000. Defense officials here say the troops would infiltrate South Korea and try to throw its defense into confusion if another war broke between the two countries.

The frontline deployment of special forces comes as South Korean increasingly suspects a North Korean submarine sank one of its warships along their tense western sea border on March 26.

Forty died and six went missing in the sinking that has sparked national mourning and led President Lee Myung-bak to vow a stern response to those responsible.

North Korea denies its involvement in what has become one of South Korea’s worst naval disasters, but it is coming under growing suspicion because its history of attacks.

The latest attack took place in November last year, when a North Korean patrol boat shot at a South Korean one and retreated in flames after taking heavy fire.

South and North Korea remain technically at war after the 1950-53 Korean War ended in a truce, not a peace treaty.

Read the full story:
N. Korea has deployed 50,000 special forces along frontlines: source
Yonhap
5/5/2010

The South Korean naval ship Cheonan sank just south west of Baengnyong Island…

Click image for larger version.

Many now suspect that the DPRK was involved in the sinking.  The DPRK has rejected any involvement.

There are a number of DPRK naval facilities in the area.  Here are some satellite images of them:

Cho Island (Chodo)

Click the image for a larger version.  Coorinates: 38°30’15.42″N, 124°52’0.42″E. You can see it in Wikimapia here.

Sagon-ri Naval Base (probable)

Click image for larger version.  Coordinates: 37°49’20.55″N, 125°20’38.49″E. You can see it in Wikimapia here.

Ryongho Island: Dock and underground port

Click image for larger version.  Coordinates: 37°48’23.85″N, 125°21’3.36″E. You can see it in Wikimapia here.

Sunwi Island: Underground port

Click image for larger version.  Coordinates: 37°46’11.29″N, 125°20’3.26″E.  You can see it on Wikimapia here.

Haeju Naval Base

Click image for larger version.  Coordinates: 38° 0’0.89″N, 125°43’4.35″E.  You can see it on Wikimapia here.

Pipagot Naval Facility

Click for a larger version. Coordinates: 38°35’40.17″N, 124°58’38.49″E. You can see it on Wikimapia here.

Unnamed Naval Facility

Click image for larger version.  Coordinates: 37°54’32.24″N, 125°14’32.43″E. You can see it in Wikimapia here.

These were picked up by the South Korean media.

According to KCNA:

Report on Implementation of 2009 Budget and 2010 Budget
 
Pyongyang, April 9 (KCNA) — Deputy Pak Su Gil, vice-premier and minister of Finance, delivered a report on the results of the implementation of the DPRK state budget for last year and its state budget for this year at the 2nd Session of the 12th Supreme People’s Assembly held on Friday.

According to the report, the state budget for last year was successfully implemented and, as a result, the state budgetary revenue was overfulfilled 1.7 per cent, an increase of 7 per cent over the previous year.

Ministries, national institutions, management bureaus and complexes overfulfilled the national plans for budgetary revenue and all provinces, cities and counties across the country also overfulfilled their plans for local budgetary revenue.

Last year’s plan for state budgetary expenditure was carried out at 99.8 per cent.

An investment from the state budget was focused on the development of metal industry while a huge financial allocation was made for the power and coal industries and the railway transport.

8.6 per cent more funds than the previous year were spent for capital construction and expenditure was increased for agriculture and light industry.

A 7.2 per cent greater financial disbursement than the previous year was made for the field of science and technology, surpassing the level of the latest science and technology in domains of space technology, nuclear technology and CNC technology and putting the key industries of the national economy on a high scientific and technological basis.

A large amount of fund went to the field of cultural construction and 15.8 per cent of the total state budgetary expenditure was spent for national defence.

The reporter said that the scale of revenue and expenditure in the state budget for this year has been set on the principle of improving the people’s standard of living to meet the requirements of the policy of the Workers’ Party of Korea on conducting a great offensive to bring about a decisive turn in the above-said work.

This year’s plan for state budgetary revenue is expected to grow 6.3 per cent over last year. The revenue from the profits of state enterprises, the main source of state budgetary revenue, is expected to go up 7.7 per cent over last year, that from the profits of cooperative organizations 4.2 per cent, that from the fixed asset depreciation 2.5 per cent, that from real estate rent 2 per cent and that from social insurance 1.9 per cent.

This year’s plan for state budgetary expenditure is expected to show an 8.3 per cent increase over last year.

The spending for the light industry is expected to go up 10.1 per cent, that for agriculture 9.4 per cent and that for metal, power and coal industries and railway transport 7.3 per cent as compared with last year.

The expenditure for the machine-building industry is expected to go up and an 8.5 per cent bigger financial allocation will be made for scientific researches and the introduction of new technologies.

A 6.2 per cent bigger financial disbursement than last year is expected to be made to more successfully enforce the popular policies, a proof of the advantages of Korean-style socialism centered on the popular masses.

15.8 per cent of the total state budgetary expenditure for this year is expected to be spent for national defence.

It is expected that a large amount of educational aid fund and stipends will be sent for the children of Koreans in Japan this year, too.

In order to successfully implement this year’s state budget, all domains and units of the national economy should work out enterprising and realistic business strategy and management strategy and tenaciously carry them out by relying on a high degree of mental power of the producer masses and thus fulfill the plans for budgetary revenue without fail, stressed the reporter.

And according to the Choson Ilbo:

North Korean leader Kim Jong-il can freely dispose of 20 percent of his country’s budget, a former secretary of North Korean Workers’ Party has said that. Hwang Jang-yop told the Asahi Shimbun, “Only 30 percent of the budget is spent on public services, while 50 percent is earmarked for military spending.” Hwang defected to South Korea in 1997.

Hwang was interviewed by the daily during his visit to Japan on April 4-8. “Kim Jong-il’s dictatorship is 10 times worse than his father’s. People have a painful life,” he said.

Asked if the North is likely to abandon its nuclear weapons program, he said, “There is no such possibility. But the North won’t use the weapons. They’re a means to maintain the regime.”

To the question why Kim’s eldest son Jong-nam was passed over for the succession, he said, “At first, Kim Jong-il thought of choosing his eldest son as his successor. But he seems to have changed his mind as he fell in love with Ko Young-hee, the mother of Jong-un, his third son, after Jong-nam’s mother Song Hye-rim died.”

Commenting on the North’s bizarre abductions of Japanese citizens in the 1970s and 80s, he said, “The North needed native Japanese to train agents who would work in Japan.”

Read the full story here:
Kim Jong-il ‘Gets 20% of N.Korea’s Budget for His Own Use’
Choson Ilbo
4/12/2010

Vladimir Lenin is often quoted as saying “The Capitalists will sell us the rope with which we will hang them”.  This popped into my head this morning when I read this story in the Choson Ilbo:

Unification Minister Hyun In-taek on Tuesday admitted that the fiber optic cables South Korea provided have made it more difficult to spy on North Korea. Hyun was answering a question from a lawmaker at a session of the National Assembly’s Foreign Affairs, Trade and Unification Committee. “I understand that there is a problem or a loophole” in South Korea’s intelligence-gathering ability, he said.

Grand National Party lawmaker Chung Jin-suk expressed worries that South Korea’s ability to gather intelligence was weakened by fiber optic cables which the South Korean government supplied to the North in the past. “I suspect that some of the 45 km-long fiber optic cables may have been diverted to lay a communications network between frontline Army units in the North,” he said.

Hyun said Seoul has “no plan as of now to comply with an additional request from the North for more fiber optic cables.”

The South Korean government sent 20 km, 15 km and 2 km-long copper cables to the North in 2002, 2005 and 2007, which were meant to be used for inter-Korean military communications. Last year, the South supplied the North with 45 km-long fiber optic cables, two sets of optical termination equipment, and two sets of optical measuring instruments.

Under an agreement, a 25 km portion was supposed to be laid on the east coast, and another 20 km portion on the west coast. It is difficult to wiretap a network of fiber optic cables, Chung said.

“We haven’t checked yet whether the cables were used simply for the inter-Korean military communications network or for the expansion of a new communications network for frontline units,” Chung said.

He said if copper cables were replaced with fiber optic cables, then that would make intelligence gathering much more difficult in cases like the sinking of the Navy corvette Cheonan, where there is a suspicion of North Korean involvement.

Read the full story here:
Seoul ‘Hampered Its Own Ability to Spy on N.Korea’
Choson Ilbo
4/14/2010

According to Yonhap:

North Korean leader Kim Jong-il on Wednesday carried out the second biggest promotion of generals since he took power, official media reported, as the country geared up to mark the birthday of his late father and North Korea’s founder.

Kim issued an order promoting a group of 100 general-grade officers “on the occasion of the Day of the Sun,” the birthday of his father, Kim Il-sung, which falls on Thursday, the Korean Central News Agency said in a report monitored in Seoul.

The promotion was the biggest in scale since 1997 when Kim Jong-il raised the ranks of 129 generals in an apparent bid to consolidate his grip on the military after he took over the regime from his father, who died four years earlier.

…

Gen. U Tong-chuk, a senior official at the North’s spy agency and a member of the National Defense Commission, the highest seat of power, stood out as he had already been promoted in April last year.

Mike has more on Gen. U Tong-chuk. 

Read the full article here:
N. Korea conducts sweeping military promotion ahead of founder’s birthday
Yonhap
Sam Kim
4/14/2010

Joseph Bermudez, military analyst for Jane’s Intelligence Review and author of The Armed Forces of North Korea, has published the third issue of his very fascinating KPA Journal.

Click here to download the full issue (PDF)

Chapters include: KPA Engineer River Crossing Units During the Fatherland Liberation War (Part 3), The Scud B SRBM in KPA Service, A ‘Type’ KPAF Fortified SAM Base. 

Bermudez Comments in the Journal:

With this issue I’ve concluded coverage of the KPA’s engineer river crossing units during the Fatherland Liberation War. I would like to thank all the readers for their positive comments concerning this series of articles.  As I mentioned in issue No. 2 I will follow up this series with some coverage of KPA underwater bridges and bridging equipment.  Which issue they will appear in is presently uncertain.

A number of readers have asked if I will be writing anything special for the 60th Anniversary of the Korean War this June.  I haven’t yet decided upon a topic for the June issue, but would like to hear from what you the readers might be interested to see.  Readers might be interested to know that I had written a history of the KPA’s 17th Tank Division during the war and submitted it to Armor for publication with the hope that it would appear in the May-June issue.  Unfortunatley their publication  schedule is already full.  They have, however, accepted it for publication in a future issue.  When that occurrs, I will inform the readers of KPA Journal.

In response to a number of reader’s requests I will be preparing several articles, or photo essays, on KPA tanks and armored fighting vehicles. I hope to have the first in time for the next issue. 

I am making slow progress on the KPA Journal website and I hope to have it up in a month or so.  I will let the readers know when it goes live.

Finally, all readers are encouraged to share ideas of what you would like to see in future issues of KPA Journal.  As always I would like to thank you all for your encouragement and support.

You can download previous issues of KPA Journal here.

UPDATE 2 (2011-9-8): According to the Donga Ilbo:

Hyundai Group Chairwoman Hyun Jeong-eun, who met North Korean leader Kim Jong Il in Pyongyang in 2007, is known to have said Kim believes the 2004 train station explosion in the North Korean town of Ryongchon was an attempt to assassinate him.

According to a diplomatic report released recently by WikiLeaks, Hyun told U.S. Ambassador to South Korea Kathleen Stephens in 2009, “Kim believed that the explosion at Ryongchon Station was a failed attempt to assassinate him, and the (North Korean) People’s Army became his most trusted group after the incident.”

Hyun was quoted as saying, “After the time when his train was to pass Ryongchon Station was revealed through mobile phones, North Korean leader Kim Jong Il believed that the explosion occurred when his train almost reached the station, and after the incident, the introduction of mobile phones in the North was markedly delayed.”

According to the report, the chairman said, “Kim Jong Il fears assassination and a coup the most. He was not an irrational person in the past, but I feel he has changed recently in certain aspects.”

UPDATE 1 (2010-3-23): Adam Cathcart tracks down the original Chinese source and offers a translation:

Curtis, I believe the original source is an article in the Chongqing (Sichuan, PRC) Evening News.  I’ll include the relevant Chinese text in two separate blocks and then translate it:

2004年4月22日中午时分，朝鲜平安北道龙川郡发生了一起严重的火车爆炸事故，导致近200人死亡，1500多人受伤，另有8000多幢房屋被毁。有分析认为，这次造成灾难性后果的朝鲜火车爆炸案，是一次针对朝鲜领导人金正日的暗杀企图。4月22日龙川爆炸事故时，有线索表明不良分子使用了手机，唯恐内部情报外泄，所以手机业务被停了。

On April 22, 2004, around noon, the story is that in North Korea’s North Pyong’an Province, Ryongchon County, a serious train explosion caused the deaths of nearly 200 people and injured more than 1,500 people, while more than 8000 homes were destroyed.

Some analysts believe that the catastrophic consequences of this North Korean train explosion followed from a attempted plan to target North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il for assassination.

At the time of the April 22 Ryongchon explosion, clues collected along the tracks indicated that unhealthy elements had used mobile phones. For fear that internal information would leak [to the outside], the mobile phone business would be stopped.

[Note: The last sentence is pretty interesting; the phrase used is “唯恐” which means “for fear that,” but it can also lead into the idiomatic expression 唯恐天下不乱 which means “in order that all under Heaven remain unchaotic,” which seems to be a tactful dynastic-type allusion to the idea that the DPRK could ignite whenever.]

停止移动电话服务举措的命令由朝鲜国防委员会直接下达，特别是在权力机关或特殊行业就职的人员使用手机受到了严格的限制，原先持有的手机也被没收。朝鲜在境内全面禁止使用手机之后，花大笔钱购置手机的居民大为不满，因为1台手机机身和入网费共约1300美元，在一夜之间就成了废品。

The order to stop mobile phone services came down directly from the [North] Korean National Defense Committee, particularly [stating] that the authority/rights of those in special business sectors to use mobile phones was [henceforth] strictly limited and that previously held mobile phones [should be] confiscated.

After North Korea totally banned mobile phone use within its borders, many residents/citizens, having spent big money (about 1300 USD for everything including accessories and network access fees) to purchase mobile phones, became dissatisfied due to the fact that their cell phones had been rendered into scrap overnight.

[As a side note, I wonder why this news is leaking out of the PRC at a time when Kim Jong Il is said to be mulling over a return trip to China, which would almost certainly be taken by train (through the same station?). It’s a bit mystifying. But then again, Chinese readers probably have more sympathy for North Korea’s striving elites than is often acknowledged and Xinhua, perhaps, puts this story out as a gentle reminder (at a time when people are getting arrested for downloading “unharmonious content” onto their mobile phones) that life in the PRC could be much, much worse. Just my two cents — hope this helps, and thanks for the post.]

ORIGINAL POST (3/22/2010): According to the Donga Ilbo:

A 2004 explosion at a railway station in North Korea was an attempt to assassinate leader Kim Jong Il, China’s state-run Xinhua News Agency quoted an analysis as saying yesterday.

“The train explosion at Ryongchon Station in North Pyongan Province on April 22 that year killed nearly 200 people, injured more than 1,500, and destroyed more than 8,000 homes. The explosion is believed to have been an attempt to assassinate Kim,” Xinhua said.

Though Xinhua quoted an analysis, it is quite unusual for the news agency to say the explosion was an assassination attempt on Kim. Xinhua mentioned the incident while reporting on mobile phone use in North Korea.

The report said the number of mobile phone users in North Korea surged to 20,000 a year after mobile telecom service was launched in November 2002. Pyongyang, however, banned the use of mobile phones following the explosion.

Xinhua said the ban was imposed directly by the National Defense Commission, North Korea’s highest-ranking body, due to fears over the leak of news on the explosion outside of the communist country.

In the early days of mobile phone use, only officials at the people’s committee of the ruling Workers’ Party and the ministries of public safety, national security and defense could use them. After the explosion, however, as many as 10,000 mobile handsets were seized by authorities.

The cost of a mobile handset and registration was as high as 1,300 U.S. dollars when the greenback was traded at 1,200 to 1,300 North Korean won, equal to more than 600 months of monthly wages for the average North Korean worker (2.20 dollars).

In the face of mounting complaints over the ban, North Korean authorities re-allowed the use of mobile phones in March last year.

An estimated 120,000 North Koreans use mobile telecom service. Considering North Korea’s population of an estimated 24 million as of 2008, this translates into one handset per 200 people.

Xinhua added that mobile phones have brought about many changes in the lives of North Koreans.

I am taking this with a grain of salt until I find the source.  I post it here so you can judge for yourself.

Here are before/after images of the Ryongchon explosion.

Read the full srticle here:
“2004 Explosion Was Attempt on Kim Jong Il`s Life”
Donga Ilbo
3/22/2010