North Korean Economy Watch

According to KBS:

A new survey shows that more than nine percent of North Korean escapees living in South Korea are unemployed and are suffering from serious financial difficulties.

According to a survey of 12-hundred North Korean escapees between the ages of 20 and 60, 42-point-six percent of respondents were economically active, while nine-point-two percent of those who are economically active were unemployed.

Some 37 percent of the respondents cited physical problems as a reason for their lack of a job. More than 24 percent said they chose to remain unemployed in order to raise their children.

The survey was conducted by an organization supporting North Korean escapees.

It would have been helpful if the results were broken down by gender as well as a few other control variables.

Read the full story here:
Survey: 9% of NK Escapees are Unemployed
KBS
12/16/2010

According to the Daily NK:

An oft-cited example of an advocate of reform within the North Korean leadership, former Prime Minister Park Bong Ju [aka Pak Pong-ju] appeared alongside Kim Jong Il during a recent onsite inspection at a Pyongyang sock factory, leading to suggestions that North Korea may again be contemplating the idea of embracing economic reform.

However, this is less likely than another explanation; that Park was brought back into the fold to oversee a number of revisions to the legal code during 2010.

Park, whose appearance at the onsite inspection was verified in five images broadcast by Chosun Central Television on the 11th, was a leading architect of the July 1st Economic Management Reform Measure of 2002, which formalized a number of relatively liberal economic policies.

He then became Prime Minister in September 2003, but was deposed during a period of economic retrenchment in April 2007, sent into virtual exile in South Pyongan Province as manager of Suncheon Vinalon Complex.

As a result of this career path, Park is seen by many as a reformist thinker in the North Korean elite.

Therefore, when he stepped back onto the main political stage this August, three years and four months later, mentioned in a report published by Chosun Central News Agency on August 21st about the 50th anniversary of a well-known Pyongyang restaurant, Okryugwan, it led to suggestions that North Korea might be set to head down the road to economic reform, led by Park as Party First Vice Director.

However, Park’s re-emergence does not mean that North Korea is about to turn towards market mechanisms on an official basis; conversely, it is more likely to be related to the revision this year of a number of laws which were actually designed to strengthen the control and supervisory functions of state institutions.

North Korea officially revised the People’s Economic Planning Law on April 6th alongside the Pyongyang Management Law, revised on March 30th, and both its Labor Protection and Chamber of Commerce and Industry Laws, revised on July 8th.

In revealing the legal revisions to The Daily NK in an interview in November, an inside North Korean source commented on the intention behind the changes, saying, “The People’s Economic Planning Law of 2001 alleviated national controls and supervision, even though it came before the July 1st measure of 2002. However, the revised bill strengthens national controls.”

Additionally, the source went on, “This series of bills including the revised People’s Economic Planning Law are the basis of the nation’s control, management and supervision. It should be understood as being part of the same flow as the series of measures undertaken during the succession process since October of 2007, when market controls began wholeheartedly; the 150-day Battle, 100-day Battle and currency redenomination.”

Accordingly, research suggests that North Korea probably chose to play the Park Bong Ju card now to revise state policy to try and sort out the problems left behind by the failure of the 2009 currency redenomination and to address the pressing need to improve the state of the domestic economy, whilst also hoping that the appointment of an official with a reformist image might attract investment from Northeast China and further afield.

Michael Madden has written a bio of Pak Pong-ju. Read it here.

Read the full Daily NK sotry below:
Park’s Appearance Unlikely to Mean Real Reform
Daily NK
Kim So-yeol
12/13/2010

According ot the Korea Herald:

The price of rice in North Korea has soared nearly 40-fold in the year after the country’s botched currency reform.

Rice is now traded at around 900 North Korean won per kilogram in Pyongyang’s markets, according to online media outlet Daily NK. This is up 3,990 percent from 22 won late November last year in the newly introduced currency.

The North knocked two zeros off the face value of its old currency on Nov. 30 last year, exchanging 100-won bills for new 1-won notes. Therefore the price of a kilogram of rice, which was 2,200 won in the old currency, was redenominated to 22 won.

Under the currency reform plan, a 100-won note in the new currency should have the exchangeable value of a 10,000-won bill in the old currency. However, due to 4,000 percent inflation, the new 100-won note is now only worth 250 won in the old currency.

The price of rice in North Korea is deemed the benchmark of all prices in commercial trade.

“The apparent purpose of the North Korean currency reform was to reduce the amount of money in the markets to stabilize prices, but it failed to achieve this due to an absolute lack of commodity supplies,” said Cho Myung-chul, a senior fellow at the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy.

“The fact that rice prices jumped 4,000 percent based on the currency’s exchangeable value shows that the effect of the 100-fold revaluation has mostly disappeared.”

After major markets in the reclusive state were shut down in mid-January this year, rice prices in Pyongyang soared, hitting 1,300 won per kilo in early March. They dropped to the 400-won range in May as markets began to function again, but soared over the 1,000-won mark in August due to an exchange rate hike and damage caused by heavy rains.

When the North redenominated its currency, it placed a cap on the amount of money that could be converted per person, telling people to deposit the rest in state-run banks.

The measure, which was aimed at crippling the growing merchant class and reasserting control over market activities, tightened the distribution of food and stirred anti-regime sentiment.

This Daily NK story asserts that the average salary of a general worker is around 1,500 won a month, and it is not paid regularly.

Read the full story here:
N.K. rice price soars nearly 40-fold in a year
Korea Herald
Kim So-hyun
11/20/2010

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)

NK Brief No. 10-11-26-1
11/26/2010

North Korea has recently revised its law governing the planning of the People’s Economy, significantly strengthening the state’s ability to oversee and control economic activities throughout the country. The South Korean Ministry of Unification recently released the contents of the law, which the North revised on April 6, as well as details of two laws created by the Supreme People’s Committee Standing Committee on July 8; the Law on Labor Protection (Order 945) and the Chamber of Commerce Law (Order 946).

The new law on economic planning contains seven new articles, but since the details of the August 2009 revision were never made public, it is unclear when the new articles were added. What is clear, however, is how different the new law is when compared to the Law on Planning the People’s Economy that was passed in May, 2001 and the Economic Management Reform Measure enacted on July 1, 2002, both of which significantly boosted the autonomy of business managers and eased government restrictions on economic activity.

With the July 1 Measure, the authority of the National Economic Planning Committee was downgraded, central allocations were graduated based on managerial autonomy and profits, the central rationing system was dismantled, and wages were increased. While the economic planning law of 2001 and the July 1 Measure of 2002 eased restrictions on, and oversight of, the people’s economy, the newly-revised law strengthens state control. The new law appears to not only return but also bolster the central control mechanisms that were eliminated by the 2001 law.

Article 16 of the new law states that the planned economy will be based on prepared figures, while Article 18 states that enterprises, organizations and companies will operate on the principle of ensuring regulated numbers, and Article 24 requires the people’s economic plan, drafted by the Cabinet, State Planning Organization, and regional authorities, to be broken down in detail, by timeframe and indexes, and distributed to enterprises, organizations and companies by the end of October. The planning law passed in 2001 called for economic plans to be drawn up based on production statistics provided from ‘below’ and passed up through chains of command (Article 17), but this has been eliminated from the new law.

With the revision of the law on labor protection, North Korea has added more specific language to Article 12 of the ‘Socialist Labor Law’, which was established in April 1978. Article12 of the Law on Labor Protection states that the protection of laborers’ work is the primary demand of the socialist system, which sees the people as the most precious resource. The law strengthens the role of the state in protecting laborers, and identifies ‘difficult and strenuous’ jobs, including mining, fishing, and earthquake investigation. Workers in these fields are to be given favorable treatment, including the issuance of additional clothing, food and other rations.

In addition, the law covers the installation and maintenance of safety equipment, the issuance of protective gear, and additional protections for female workers. It also restricts work to eight hours per day and guarantees holidays and time off, health care, and protection of property. These and other articles in the law increase state management of workers, but defector testimonies paint a different picture. Most workers save their wages with the assumption that they will have to pay bribes, medical costs and other expenses out-of-pocket.

The law on commercial activity further details the ‘Chamber of Commerce Regulation’ handed down by the Cabinet in 2008. The law covers a range of duties and rights regarding commercial operations, including contracts and operations regarding joint ventures with foreign firms; legal letters of confirmation, certificates of country of origin and other paperwork related to trade issues; as well as exhibitions and conventions held in conjunction with foreign businesses.

According to the Daily NK:

According to a former North Korean logger in Russia, instances of forestry workers running away from a “Forestry Mission” program organized by North Korea’s Forestry Ministry in the Russian Far East are increasing due to excessive salary deductions currently being imposed by the North Korean authorities.

Song Ki Bok, a 48-year old former logger who now lives in South Korea told The Daily NK on November 18th, “The Forestry Mission takes 70% of monthly salary in the name of Party funding. Who would want to work there when all the money you earn from working yourself to death is taken from you?”

Prior to 2008, North Korea took 30% of the North Koreans’ wages for “Party loyalty funds”. However, after sanctions put in place by the international community following the first North Korean nuclear test began to bite, the amount was increased to 70%.

The North Korean forestry workers do hard physical labor. Depending on the intensity of their work, they receive just $40 to $100 per month.

Therefore, once 70% is deducted as Party funds, the take-home pay of the worker is between $12 and $30. As a result, workers cannot even dream of wiring sums back to family in the North. They just deliver what cash they can gather via colleagues returning home.

Worse yet, with this kind of swingeing monthly deduction, many workers cannot even recover the bribe they had to offer Party officials in order to be sent to Russia in the first place. For example, the total amount Song ended up paying was nearly $400.

Before escaping from the forestry program, Song saw a monthly salary of $30, meaning that even if he had saved every penny he earned for a year he still would not have recouped the $400 he paid out in bribes.

In the beginning, he was buoyed by the ‘Russia Dream’. The family of a worker in a foreign country traditionally lives in better conditions than most people. Therefore, Song went to Russia in the belief that if he worked hard for three years, he could make 10 years of a North Korean working man’s salary; however, the reality was as harsh as the bitter cold of Siberia.

The Forestry Mission in Russia; Kim Jong Il’s hard currency provider

According to Song, there are 17 forestry sites in Russia which employ North Koreans. Depending on the size of the camp there are differences; however, approximately 1,500~2,000 North Koreans work at each.

The major activities of the Party Committee in each camp are surveillance and the collection of Party funds. A manager, Party secretary and an agent from each of the National Security Agency and People’s Security Ministry are assigned to each site, and 15 administrative officers below them manage operations.

The life of workers is the same as it would be if they lived in North Korea. They must partake of weekly evaluation meetings, and food is provided by distribution. They plant potatoes and wheat in cleared areas near their digs to supplement the insufficient state provisions.

If workers leave without permission, they are punished upon their return. If the crime is grave, the worker might be summoned to North Korea for reeducation.

Song commented, “Sometime people leave the camp to go hunting to earn money. They can only escape punishment by bribing the management.”

In total, the amount gathered in the name of Party funds by the North Korean authorities from each camp can exceed $140,000 per month. Calculations suggest that the annual North Korean government take from the program exceeds $25 million.

However, this harsh Party policy is driving escapes, according to Song, “Since most of their monthly salary began to be taken away as Party funds, the number of workers escaping started to increase. Just from those I know, the average has reached 30 workers per a year.”

Song, describing the harsh working conditions at the site, said, “In 2006, a wood cutter from Dukcheon in South Pyongan Province who had frostbite in both feet at work didn’t receive treatment in time. In the end, they had to cut off both his legs. His co-workers, who could not ignore the situation, raised it with the Party Committee there; however, not only was this opinion ignored, but the wood cutter was sent home with the explanation, ‘It was an accident caused by my own carelessness’.”

“The life of a forestry worker fighting against cold which can reach -40˚C in winter is unspeakably tough,” Song said. “Meanwhile, they don’t even receive a proper month’s salary, which reduces their will to work.”

“If a worker escapes, in the end he has no choice but to head to South Korea. When I think about those of my colleagues who couldn’t come to South Korea with me, it is still hard to sleep at night.”

Read more about logging camps in Russia (including satellite imagery) here and here.

Read the full story here:
Runaway Loggers on the Rise Due to Wage Cuts
Daily NK
Kang Mi Jin
11/22/2010

According to TradingMarkets.com:

Top South Korean steelmaker POSCO pledged Thursday to provide more jobs to North Korean defectors struggling to settle in their newfound capitalist homeland.

Under a memorandum of understanding (MOU) signed with the Unification Ministry, POSCO promised to hire more defectors at its “social enterprise” subsidiaries set up in part to help the underprivileged.

POSCO’s Songdo SE, one such firm, now employees 105 people from the needy classes of society, including 35 defectors from North Korea, and plans to increase the number of defector employees to 50 by next year.

The firm is in charge of building maintenance for POSCO Engineering & Construction’s new headquarters and POSCO Global R&D Center located in Songdo Free Economic Zone in the western port city of Incheon.

“What is most important for North Korean defectors is to help them to stand on their own economically,” Unification Minister Hyun In-taek said in a speech at the MOU signing ceremony attended by some 200 people, including the 35 defectors employed at Songdo SE and POSCO CEO Chung Joon-yang.

Chung said that Songdo SE will put priority on hiring North Korean defectors living in Incheon.

Since the 1950-53 Korean War, nearly 20,000 North Koreans have defected to the South to escape from hunger and political suppression in their communist homeland. But many of them have a hard time getting decent jobs due to their lack of South Korean-style education and social discrimination.

Read the full story here:
POSCO pledges to provide more jobs to North Korean defectors
TradingMarkets.com
11/9/2010

According to China Economic Review:

Could North Korea be saved by Chinese-style reforms? In return for its continued support, China is pushing the rogue state to liberalise its economy, and Chinese firms are making inroads into various sectors, especially infrastructure and mining. Earlier this week, I interviewed Felix Abt, a Swiss business consultant who was appointed managing director of a pharmaceutical joint venture in Pyongyang with a brief to turn around the loss-making company, about his experiences over the last eight years.

How open is North Korea to foreign investment, and how many foreign companies are operating on the ground?

In 1992 the Supreme People’s Assembly adopted three laws allowing and regulating foreign investment — the Foreign Investment Law, the Foreign Enterprise Law, and the Joint Venture Law.

Since then, foreign investors have become active in a variety of industrial and service industries. There are a few hundred foreign-invested companies operating at present, mainly smaller sized ventures ($100,000 to $3 million) and of Asian origin (with China ranking No.1).

There are a few very large foreign investments, mainly in the telecom and cement industries. Western multinationals have been shying away from North Korea for fear of ending up on a sanctions list in the world’s largest economy. BAT sold its highly profitable tobacco factory due to political pressure in Great Britain to a Singaporean company a few years ago.

What sort of person sets up business in North Korea? What sort of industries have arrived and what sectors are not represented?

The domestic market is still very small and limited and and not much growth can be expected in the foreseeable future. So to talk about a promising emerging market at present would be a silly exaggeration.

However, North Korea is a very interesting location for the processing of products from garments to shoes to bags where you send the cloth or the leather and the accessories and they send you the finished products back.

The same goes for the extraction of minerals and metals, abundantly available in North Korea, in which case you would send equipment and get the mining products.

In addition, the manufacturing of low to medium technology items is very competitive and such products are already being made with foreign investment in North Korea from artificial flowers to furniture to artificial teeth. I was involved in making the business plan for the artificial teeth joint venture and know therefore that such products can be manufactured with a much better profit margin than for example in the Philippines where the artificial teeth had been produced before.

A particularly promising industry is IT due to the extraordinary quantity and quality of mathematicians unmatched by other countries. The first and only software JV, Nosotek, has seen remarkable successes within a very short time from its foundation and could become a subject of interest to investors who would never have thought of putting any money in North Korea until now.

How easy is it to do business there? Are most foreigners concentrated in Pyongyang or are they spread around?

It depends on the expectations, on the choice of the local partner and on the expatriate staff a company sends there. You need to thorougly select the most suitable local partner and an expatriate manager that is not only professionally competent but also can adapt to and cope with a demanding business environment.

The success of the pharmaceutical joint venture I was running in the past depended on a fast capacity building of the Korean members of the board of directors, managers and staff. I brought them to China where they visited the first foreign and Chinese invested pharmaceutical JV and I convinced its Chinese octogenarian architect to become a member of our company’s board of directors.

Since he faced very similar problems decades earlier he could convince the North Koreans quite easily why certain things had to be done in a certain way to make the business successful. We visited a great number of pharmaceutical companies, wholesalers, pharmacy chains in China and some of our staff even worked in a Chinese factory for some time.

When I wanted to set up the marketing and sales function I was first told that “companies in the DPRK usually don’t have a sales dept.”. I was asked to send a letter to the cabinet to explain my reasons to get the permit for doing so. The visits in China were surely important eye openers and helped getting things organised like in any other country.

The Korean managers and staff quickly acquired all the necessary skills and were able to run the day to day business (factory, import and wholesale of pharmaceuticals, pharmacies) alone when my term ended as managing director.

Many foreign business people are based in Pyongyang, but there are also many working in different places throughout the country, e.g. near mines in the mountains.

Hu Jintao has urged North Korea to speed up its economic reform, using China as a model. Could North Korea open up in the same way over the next few years?

The Chinese are better informed than the scholar and North Korea expert who recently wrote in the Wall Street Journal that the country’s elite would never agree to reform its economy as they fear the system would then collapse.

Together with the Chinese, I believe the risk of a collapse is much bigger if no reforms are carried out than if there are slow and controlled changes.

Once the economy starts taking off and people’s living standards rise the people will hardly challenge the system and the leadership even though the North Korean people know that South Korea’s economy is much more advanced.

Read the full story here:
Can North Korea embrace Chinese-style reforms?
China Economic Review
Malcolm Moore
9/23/2010

The Daily NK reports that construction is afoot at numerous DPRK leadership compounds.

Residence 15 in the Central District (중앙구역):

The residence is located at 39° 0’56.39″N, 125°44’45.45″E.  The first photo is dated March 23, 2009.  The second is dated December 20, 2009.  The third image is from the Daily NK story overlaid onto Google Earth.

Onpho Spa in Kyongsong County (경성군):
The Daily NK also provides a new image of the elite compound at the Onpho Spa.  Here is the original low resolution image from Google Earth and the new high resolution image:

This compound is located at 41°39’26.91″N, 129°30’29.57″E.  Even though the “before” image is in low resolution, we can see that the compound has been drastically rebuilt.  It bears resemblance to the Sinchon Elite Compound (satellite image here) which also is built on a spa.    Barbara Demick mentioned this facility in her recent Nothing to Envy.

The Daily NK also mentions that here is construction taking place at the leadership compound in Songdowon, north of Wonsan. Satellite image here.

The reconstruction of leadership compounds has been underway for some time.  I blogged about some other projects in February 2009. Read about them here.

Here is the text from the Daily NK story:

An unusual level of remodeling and reconstruction of official buildings and special villas is going on across North Korea, according to sources.

One such source inside North Korea reported today that after demolishing the No. 15 Official Residence, located in vicinity of Kim Jong Il’s current office in Pyongyang, the authorities began construction of a new building in July, a claim which has been confirmed by satellite images.

The No. 15 Official Residence was where Ko Young Hee, Kim Jong Eun’s mother, used to live. The location is linked to Kim Jong Il’s office and other official buildings by underground tunnels fitted with an electronic train. When Kim Jong Eun was a child, he also lived there.

However, the source said he believes that the prime real estate may be undergoing a change of use.

The source also reported that in December, 2009, Kim Jong Eun ordered the destruction of another special villa in Kyungsung, North Hamkyung Province, a place famous for hot springs, and the building of a new conference hall and villa with imported construction materials in its place.

Approximately ten kilometers of road and rail construction has also been going on so that the area can be reached more conveniently, the source added.

According to the source, around 1,200 soldiers have been mobilized alongside residents of Chongjin and Hoiryeong for the work. In addition, each household in the area has had to provide ten buckets of rocks for construction and pay 500 won for their delivery.

Regarding this work, North Korea Reform Radio reported in July, “During construction of Kim Jong Eun’s special villa in Kyungsung, the authorities diverted the flow of a stream flowing through Haonpo-ri in Kyungsung, burying farms and angering residents.”

Reconstruction of another villa and conference hall at the coastal Songdowon Resort in Wonsan, Kangwon Province is also ongoing. This construction is reportedly a gift for Kim Jong Il on the orders of Kim Jong Eun.

The construction consists of two large, circular buildings. One of them has a lot of separate rooms, while the other has just one big hall, according to rumors.

Therefore, the source assumed that the finished building might be a similar to Kim Jong Il’s Seoho Villa, the No. 72 Villa in Nakwon, South Hamkyung, which is rumored to have one room extending 100m below the ground.

A South Korean architect estimates that the construction of the three facilities and railroad will cost a total of around $180 million dollars, an amount which, according to the current international market price of corn, $300/ton, is enough to buy 600,000 tons of corn, enough to feed 2.3 million North Koreans for two months.

According to documents the South Korean military and intelligence authorities provided for submission to a hearing of the Diplomacy, Commerce and Unification Committee of the National Assembly by lawmaker Yoon Sang Hyun, there are 33 luxurious villas in beautiful mountainous areas and along the coasts of North Korea. Since 2008, 13 out of 33 sites have been under maintenance work, according to intelligence.

There are also 28 stations for the exclusive use of Kim Jong Il across North Korea.

In North Korea, in general, around two or three facilities are remodeled per year, but the current degree of widespread construction and remodeling suggests that Kim Jong Eun may be set to use the villas in the future.

On this, an anonymous expert with a national policy institute suggested that it does not portend a scaling back of the Kim family ruling style. “Seeing Kim Jong Eun’s luxurious life pattern,” he said, “he seems set to follow his father’s conventional method of dictatorship.”

You can see satellite imagery of 19 leadership  train stations here.

Read the full sotry here:
Luxury Villa Construction Booming
Daily NK
Kim Tae Hong
10/26/2010

According to Yonhap:

An estimated 150,000-200,000 North Koreans are locked up in their communist country as political prisoners, a senior South Korean official said Friday.

Unification Minister Hyun In-taek did not cite sources, but he said during a parliamentary audit in Seoul that the number is “what we understand currently.”

North Korea is operating six political prison camps, Gu Sang-chan, a lawmaker of the ruling Grand National Party, said during the audit as he asked Hyun about the number of inmates.

People incarcerated in such camps are believed to be political dissidents or those who have been captured and repatriated after fleeing the impoverished communist state.

North Korea denies holding any political prisoners, stressing that there are no human rights abuses. Activists claim that political prisoners are forced to work grueling hours and receive only enough food to keep them alive. No medical care is available.

North Korea has a population of 24 million.

Read the full story here:
Up to 200,000 political prisoners estimated in N. Korea: official
Yonhap
Sam Kim
10/22/2010

According to KBS:

The Yomiuri Shimbun says China’s Jilin Province will hire 100 North Koreans this month to work at a plastic manufacturing plant in Tumen City. The report says their wages will be less than half of what Chinese workers are paid.

Japan’s Asahi Shimbun says China’s introduction of North Korean labor is picking up speed. It says that nearby Dandong City in Liaoning Province has also begun the process of bringing in one-thousand North Korean workers.

Read the full story here:
China Border Cities Hiring NK Workers
KBS
10/18/2010