North Korean Economy Watch

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
NK Brief No. 08-2-5-1
2/5/2008

Kim Jong Il’s first visit of the year was reported on January 6 to have been to the Ryesonggnang hydro-electric power plant. Generally, the leader’s visits in the first months of the year, along with the New Year’s Joint Editorial, which focused on economic recovery, set the tone for the coming year’s policies. His second inspection of the year was to a military unit.

Defectors claim that prostitution is on the rise in North Korea, and on January 9, the aid group ‘Good Friends’ reported that the DPRK has begun to close massage parlors as part of a crackdown on prostitution. The agency reported that in the DPRK there was a “steady campaign to weed out decadent foreign culture,” and that in September, DPRK soldiers were ordered to avoid alcohol, sex, and money.

On January 16, it was reported that Kim Jong Il had instructed all DPRK institutions to reduce their bureaucracies, including senior staff, by thirty percent.

Figures released by North Korea’s Korean Central News Agency indicate that the DPRK’s population had increased to 23.6 million in 2004, the latest available figures. According to DPRK figures, the population has grown from 22.1 million in 1996.

North Korea announced the closure of its Australian embassy on January 22. While the DPRK will continue to maintain diplomatic relations with Australia, it apparently can no longer afford to maintain an embassy in Canberra.

According to a report released by the International Red Cross, North Korea has the largest number of people in the world killed by natural disasters over the past decade. The report states that 458 thousand North Koreans have died from natural disaster, 38 percent of the disaster-caused deaths in 220 countries from 1997-2006.

A U.S. Senate investigation reported that the DPRK funneled as much as 2.7 million USD through a bank account set up from UN development projects. The report stated that North Korea used the UN account due to fears that the United States would block its ability to transfer money internationally.

DPRK Nuclear Negotiations

2008 opened with the United States and Japan releasing statements expressing their disappointment at North Korea’s failure to meet its December 31 deadline to fully disclose the extent of its nuclear programs, while North Korea’s New Year’s Joint Editorial called for “stability on the Korean Peninsula and peace in the world” as well as an end to hostile U.S. policies. A U.S. White House spokesman stressed that there was still opportunity to move forward with negotiations, stating, “the important thing is that we get a declaration that…needs to be full and complete,” not whether the declaration is made by the deadline.

On January 4, North Korea claimed it had met its obligations to come clean on its nuclear programs, and that it had provided Washington with a list of its nuclear programs in November. Pyongyang also threatened to bolster its “war deterrent” because Washington had failed to provide promised aid following the declaration. Washington denied that any complete declaration had been made.

A senior Russian diplomat was quoted on January 11 as saying that while Russia regrets the slowed state of progress in talks on DPRK nuclear issues, Russia will fulfill its promise to provide the North with fuel oil. 50,000 tons of fuel oil were delivered on January 20~21.

According to a book of figures recently published by the National Statistical Office, ”Comparison of North and South Korean Socio-economic Circumstances”, the DPRK”s crude imports over the past several years bottomed out at 2,325,000 barrels in 1999, then rose to 4,244,000 barrels by 2001. Since 2001, imports have steadily fallen until only 3,841,000 barrels were imported in 2006, recording the least imports in the last five years.

North Korea opened its first online shopping mall in January. The site offers items from fourteen categories ranging from machinery and building materials to stamps and artworks. The site, www.dprk-economy.com/en/shop/index.php, is based in China.

Orascom Telecom, a Cairo-based phone operator, has been granted the first commercial license for provision of mobile phone services in North Korea. The license was granted to CHEO Technology, a subsidiary that is 25 percent-owned by the state-run Korea Post and Telecommunications Corporation.

DPRK Abduction Issue

The Cambodian Foreign Minister announced on January 16 that his country had been working behind the scenes to find a resolution to the DPRK-Japan abduction issue. The minister stated, “Cambodia is in a position where it can hold high-level meetings with North Korea, and it has the ability to persuade North Korea.”

Inter-Korean Affairs

The incoming Lee Myung-bak administration announced on January 4 a plan to develop an international cooperative fund to support North Korea’s economy. The plan is said to call for World Bank and the Asia Development Bank to help, and for South Korea to provide 40 billion USD.

On January 7, it was reported that Lee Myung-bak’s presidential transition team had asked the ROK Unification Ministry to slow the pace of inter-Korean economic projects and to link them to progress in the six-party talks. The incoming administration has promised not to link humanitarian projects such as rice and fertilizer aid to nuclear negotiations.

The Lee Myung-bak administration announced plans for downsizing the South Korean government, including disbanding of the Ministry of Unification. Opposition to the plan points out the role played by the ministry in improving inter-Korean relations, while proponents to the plan of relegating the ministry’s duties to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade applaud the move to align North Korea policy with standing foreign policy directives.

On January 14, it was reported that Lee Myung-bak had asked the United States to further engage in talks with DPRK military leaders, while presenting a balanced approach, stating that “our people don’t support the idea of giving lavish aid to the North nor do they want to irritate it too much, I believe.” He went on to add that the United States holds the key to easing DPRK fears of opening up.

The net worth of inter-Korean exchanges totaled 1,797,890,000 USD in 2007, up 33% from the 1.35 billion USD in the previous year. The almost 1.8 billion dollars in trade recorded in 2007 is the highest to date, and is equal to 65 percent of the DPRK”s non-Korean trade volume of 2.996 billion USD in 2006.

The Seoul-based International Vaccine Institute announced on January 14 that it will soon begin inoculating approximately six thousand North Korean children against bacterial meningitis and Japanese encephalitis.

The two Koreas began working-level military talks on January 25, marking the first talks of the year. During talks, the North proposed reducing the frequency of the inter-Korean rail services, citing a lack of cargo. The Southern delegation felt that the frequency was an important indication of inter-Korean cooperation. The two sides agreed to continue daily runs, but to reduce the number of empty carriages in the future.

North Korea is still not as attractive to businesses as other Asian neighbors. A survey released by the (South) Korea Chamber of Commerce and Industry on January 28 indicated that China and Vietnam are more attractive to ROK businesses. According to the survey, 80 percent of businesses have difficulties starting or operating businesses in North Korea.

An ROK special envoy returned on January 23 from Moscow after proposing a joint ROK-DPRK-Russian cooperative project in eastern Siberia. President-elect Lee Myung-bak sent a letter to Russian President Vladimir Putin pushing for cooperation of “North Korea’s workforce, Russia’s resources and capital, and [South] Korean technology.”

U.S.-DPRK Relations

On January 9, amidst reports concerning possible DPRK-Syria nuclear connections, it was reported that in 1991 Israel was posed to strike a ship suspected of delivering missiles from the DPRK to Syria, but was dissuaded by Washington.

A U.S. State Department official stated on January 22 that North Korea had met the legal criteria to be removed from the U.S. list of state sponsors of terrorism. This came just after reports of conflicting opinions within the Bush administration, with Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice sharply rebuking Special Envoy on North Korean Human Rights Lefkowitz, who stated that North Korea is not serious about nuclear disarmament. Rice went so far as to say that Lefkowitz “certainly has no say on what American policy will be in the six-party talks,” dismissing his negative position on the failure of North Korea to meet its obligations. The White House later stated that North Korea must make a full declaration of its nuclear activities before being removed from the list.

Five officials from the DPRK recently visited the United States in order to learn how to treat and prevent tuberculosis, a serious concern for the North that is “practically non-existent in most developed countries.” The officials were invited by The Korea Society, which is based in New York.

DPRK-PRC Relations

According to the PRC General Administration of Customs, China’s oil exports to North Korea were the same in 2007 as they were in 2006. China sent 523,160 tons of oil to North Korea in 2007.

A senior PRC Communist Party official traveled to Pyongyang for a meeting with Kim Jong Il on January 30. Wang Jiarui, director of the International Liaison Department of the Chinese communist party, was to convey a message to Kim, inviting him to the opening ceremony of the Beijing Olympics. While Kim reportedly told Wang that there would be no change in the DPRK stance on nuclear negotiations, he also assured the Chinese envoy that North Korea had no intention of harming DPRK-PRC relations.

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
NK Brief No. 08-12-1-1

Much time and energy has been devoted recently to the promotion of a scheme to further develop North Korean natural resources. In July 2005, the Committee for the Promotion of South-North Economic Cooperation agreed to cooperate in the joint development of the North’s underground resources, and in July of last year a project was launched. A total of 17 agreements with the North have been reached, through which target mines have been selected and inspection methods, time-frames, and other details have been worked out. Many difficulties were faced during negotiations, but through continuous information gathering, it was decided that there was sufficient cause to invest in the project, so a proposal was made and the very first inter-Korean resource development enterprise was launched.

Since last August, forty-seven experts in mining, infrastructure, and other areas have carried out general as well as detailed inspections of all aspects of the Kumduk Zinc Mine and Ryongyang and Daeheung magnesite mines, including infrastructure such as railway and road access, harbor facilities, and electrical capacity. The North was convinced to allow photography and surveying of mining sites, as well as the 90km of rails and roads stretching between the mines and Danchun Station and the nearby Kim Chaek Harbor. Through these surveys, enough information was gathered to satisfy investors, and to publish three volumes worth of inspection reports and pictures.

The Danchun region mining project is one that has been thouroghly prepared through long negotiations and numerous inspections and surveys. Now, based on the results of last year’s surveys, the project’s feasibility study is scheduled to be completed by the end of March. The on-site inspections confirmed the quality and marketability of the mining resources, and the potential for mining development.

In addition, because the mines are currently operational, the risk is much lower than that of an exploratory project. It was assessed that only some parts of the power and railway systems need improvement. Of course, full investment in the project would come about only after completion of the feasibility study currently underway.

A DPRK natural resource development project is necessary for both North and South Korea. For the South, mineral resources can be expanded through investment in production, while the North can benefit economically by increasing production through South Korea’s capital infusion and the introduction of mining technology.

This venture can also play an important role in accomplishing the denuclearization and development plans of the incoming Lee Myung-bak administration. Direct investment in locations in North Korea is the preferred method for advancement of the North’s resources. In particular, investment into energy infrastructure necessary for the processing and transport of these mined goods is preferred over other forms of investment. It is important for South Korea to invest in developing the North’s resources before other outside investors take advantage of the opportunity.

Daily NK
Yang Jung A
1/31/2008

Due to the food export restraint imposed by China, the price of food items have been rising significantly recently, revealed Good Friends, a nongovernmental organization for North Korea, through a newsletter released on the 30th.

The newsletter relayed, “The price of rice, flour, corn, and grains has been continuously rising due to a systematic adjustment in trade exchange with China. With the Beijing Olympics ahead, the duties on food items have gone up 5% for rice, 20% for corn, and 20~25% for flour.

The newsletter also divulged that “China demands an export permit for grains. Rice and corn are flowing into North Korea because the export permits issued last year still remain in effect. However, China has not yet demanded any export permits for flour, and therefore flour cannot be exported to North Korea.”

“As a result, the price of flour has been increasing rapidly within just a month. In December of last year, the price of flour remained at 1,000 won per unit for the most part, but since the new year, it rose to 1,700 won per unit. People who have been selling bread, dumplings, and snacks have not been able to do business due to the shortage of flour.”

The source relayed, “The North Korean custom house has been requesting a quality verification report on par with international standards at the time of the importing of Chinese food products, but a majority of merchants with whom food is traded has not been able to follow the new standard yet, saying such documents are hard to provide.”

“So, the food items have not been imported into the market, which has caused the price to continuously rise due to the lack of provisions. Nowadays, even if people tried to buy a 1 kg of rice for over 1,400 won, they are unable. Chinese companies who have been dealing with North Korea have predicted that the cease in trading with Chosun (North Korea) will give rise to a food shortage.

The Ministry of Commerce of the People’s Republic of China announced the process of registration and 2008 conditions for registration for milled farming export quarter on the 19th and has implemented a method for the provisional food export of rice, corn, and flour starting January of this year. Related parties of North Korea-Chinese trade forecasted that food exports to North Korea will be reduced significantly as a result of the stringent food export conditions imposed by the Chinese government.

Today The Economist published a report on the political momentum of the North Korean human rights movement.  Although this web site does not keep up with the politics of the movement, the article points out how globalization is seemingly improving human rights in the DPRK…

A Black Hole
The Economist
1/30/2008

When you learn that Chinese firms are teaching notions of corporate social responsibility to factories in North Korea, there are two possible reactions besides incredulity. One is despair. Scandals from China involving tainted products, abused workers or environmental degradation are legion: what could its companies possibly have to teach their backward, isolated and viciously repressive neighbour?The other is to celebrate the glorious rising tide of globalisation, which washes up little bits of good news on even its most remote and neglected shores.
…
Human rights, then, no longer seem so central to the West [politically]. So it is moderately encouraging to hear that Chinese garment-makers, subcontracting to North Korea to escape mounting costs at home, insist that their partners stop imposing seven-day working weeks. Just as China’s Western partners 15 years ago trapped them in misdemeanours by finding that sewing needles had broken on supposed rest days, so the Chinese are catching the North Koreans with the same tactics.

This might seem like a radical thought, but imagine how much better companies from OECD countries would be doing this. According to US Census data, the US has only imported $1.7 m from the DPRK since 1992 (including the famine).  Since isolation from western markets has been the DPRK’s policy essentially since its founding,  why try to maintain it?  Lets start investing and trading.  Agree or disagree in the comments.  I’d like to know your thoughts.

Daily NK
Yang Jung A
1/10/2008

It was confirmed that the customs director of the city of Hoiryeong in North Hamkyung province was arrested last December for alleged corruption.

Multiple sources in Hoiryeong reported on the 8th that “The customs director of Hoiryeong was arrested at the end of last December on suspicion of assisting in the drug trade with China. It is known that a large sum of U.S. dollars was found in the customs director’s house.”

A source in North Korea reported through a phone call that, “The arrested customs director regulated small-scale merchants heavily and gave benefits to a couple of merchants who regularly gave bribes. Ultimately, the result was that access to commercial licenses in Hoiryeong was limited to the merchants who dominated the jangmadang.

Hoiryeong is one of the major crossing points along the North Korea-China border. Recently, cases of extortion in which the customs director demanded bribes in exchange for not confiscating goods were on the rise. Criticism had been rising.

The outcry from Korean-Chinese who regularly visit relatives in North Korea has been especially loud. Customs officers have required bribes from the Korean-Chinese who visit North Korea to deliver food, clothing, medicine, and daily necessities claiming them as customs fees. Such actions have become commonplace. (more…)

Joong Ang Daily
Brian Lee
1/1/2008

In what looked to be part of recent efforts to revive its ailing economy, Pyongyang recently launched a Web site outlining the North’s basic economic policy towards foreign investment and advertising goods ranging from cars to stamps bearing the image of the North’s leader, Kim Jong-il.

Called the “Economic Website of the DPR Korea,” the site can be accessed at www.dprk-economy.com or www.dprk-economy.com/en/ for the English version. Other North Korean sites are blocked here under the National Security Law.

For a reclusive society that is often referred to as an “intelligence black hole” for the lack of detailed information available about it to the outside world, the site contains lots of information on the North, both in Korean and English, covering a wide range of subjects, such as culture.

It also includes a section called the “Pyongyang Times,” in which North Korea reports on events there, such as visits by its leader to industrial sites and military units, as well as events in the South.

The site lists a total of 92 North Korean companies, like the Ocean Maritime Group, with basic company descriptions and contact information.

Orders for goods can be placed via e-mail but the Internet purchasing option available was not working as of yesterday. Some of the items are also missing price information. In its trading section, the Korea Chilmyong Trading Corporation specifically asks for a selling agent for stainless steel cutlery.

Daily NK
Moon Sung Hwee
12/23/2007

Excerpt:

Porno became prevalent in late 1990s, first among party officials and it leaked out to the public. Nude or bikini-worn women dance in North Korean porno with music.

Such indigenous videos disappear as foreign-made porno being imported. The first consumers, and the largest now, are high-ranking officials of the party and army.

It costs 2000 North Korea won (approx. USD 1 =3,200 North Korean Wown) to rent a porno CD for an hour in North Korea. Even middle school students collect money to rent one.

Yonhap
12/16/2007

South and North Korea are still far apart over setting up joint fishing areas along their disputed western sea border but they have made some progress in establishing similar zones off their shared eastern sea border, a South Korean government report said Sunday.

In a statement posted on its Website, South Korea’s Unification Ministry said working officials of both Koreas made some meaningful headway on a proposal to open their shared eastern sea border to fishing boats from both sides.

“The South and the North agreed to actively cooperate to allow South Korean ships begin fishing at designated areas in the North Korean side of the East Sea within 2008,” the ministry said, outlining a six-point agreement reached at a two-day inter-Korean working meeting that ended at the North’s border city of Kaesong on Saturday.

The two Koreas have yet to agree on many specifics on the eastern sea border, including where to set up the proposed joint fishing areas, but they agreed on some details, including how South Korea should pay for its fish catch in the northern side of the border, it said.

North Korea, among other things, agreed to allow South Korean ships to pay in goods, not cash, the statement said.

The sides also agreed to hold a new round of working talks early next year to discuss Seoul’s provision of “fishing implements and gears that will constitute its fishing fees” and other related issues,” it said.

They have also agreed to begin construction on a joint fishery research and storage center in the North before the end of the year, for which a survey team of some 20 South Korean officials will travel to the North on Dec. 21-25, according to the agreement.

It’s unclear how such agreement on the eastern sea border would affect efforts by the two Koreas to ease tension along their acutely disputed western sea border, the site of two bloody naval clashes in 1999 and 2002.

During an October summit, South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun and North Korean leader Kim Jong-il agreed to turn the disputed western maritime border into a peace zone in which fishing boats of both sides would jointly operate.

High-level military officials of both sides met at the inter-Korean border village of Panmunjom last week to discuss the western sea border but failed to reach agreement.

North Korea insisted that the proposed joint fishing areas in the West Sea must be established south of the Northern Limit Line (NLL), an interim border unilaterally set by the American-led U.N. Command right after the 1953 end of the Korean War.

South Korea turned down the North’s demand, counterproposing that any joint fishing area in the area must conjoin waters on both side of the NLL.

Yonhap
12/11/2007

(NKeconWatch: Joshua over at OFK also has a contribution to this)

A senior U.S. senator introduced a resolution setting conditions for removing North Korea from the U.S. list of terrorism-sponsoring nations, one of the key incentives offered for Pyongyang’s denuclearization.

Sen. Sam Brownback (R-Kansas) submitted Resolution 399 on Monday and so far has three co-sponsors.

The resolution urges the administration not to lift the designation until it can be demonstrated that North Korea is no longer engaged in proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and no longer counterfeiting American currency.

It also demands proof that a North Korean ruling party bureau, believed to be running illicit financial activities including drug trafficking and counterfeiting, has been made inoperable.

The senator also demands that the terrorist-nation designation remain until all U.S. overseas missions have been instructed to facilitate asylum applications by North Koreans seeking protection as refugees.

North Korea was put on the list in January 1988, soon after its agents blew up a South Korean civilian aircraft. Brownback’s resolution demands North Korea’s accounting of Japanese nationals abducted by the North as well as of surviving South Korean prisoners of war.

“If the United States takes the step of removing North Korea from the terrorism list, let’s at least make clear the conditions for such a removal,” Brownback said, adding, “I question the merits of the State Department’s decision to remove North Korea from its terrorist list.”

“It is important that the United States sends a loud and clear message to the North Korean regime that we will remain vigilant,” he said.

Delisting North Korea is one of the key benefits the U.S. offered in return for Pyongyang’s disablement of its core nuclear facilities and full disclosure of its atomic programs, the steps toward full dismantlement agreed on by six nations — South and North Korea, the U.S., China, Russia and Japan.
  
Getting off the list would free North Korea from a number of restrictions prohibiting meaningful economic and political assistance and exchange from the U.S. and the international community.

In Seoul, a Foreign Ministry official expressed concerns the resolution, if passed, could undermine progress in the nuclear disarmament talks, but said it did not pose any immediate threats to the six-nation deal on the denuclearization of the North.

“Delisting North Korea does not depend on the resolution, but whether the North fully discloses its nuclear programs,” the official, who is deeply involved with the nuclear talks, said, asking not to be identified. “Obviously, nothing has been changed so far. The U.S. administration can still delist the North if and whenever it chooses to.”

Daily NK
Jung Kwon Ho
12/11/2007

Several sources in China have relayed that it is rumored North Korean authorities are planning to take extreme measures to prevent the sale of industrial products at the jangmadang (markets) next year.

One Chinese merchant, whom DailyNK met in Dandong, China on the 6th, said, “Rumors are circulating that a measure preventing all kinds of Industrial products from being sold in the jangmadang will be implemented next year, making Chinese merchants involved in trade between North Korea and China nervous.”

He informed that “In place of industrial products, only farm produce from the fields of homeowners will be allowed to sell in the jangmadang. Marine products that up to now have been selling in the jangmadang will only be made available at appointed marine shops, meat products at food shops, and industrial products at state operated stores.”

The Chinese source also maintained that, “There are quite a few overseas Chinese who, not knowing what will happen, have bought loads of industrial products with the idea that this might be their last chance, and they have brought them into the North.”

The North Korean authorities began unfolding a series of market regulations immediately following the Inter-Korea Summit in October. These included such policies as limiting the types of items for sale and imposing a minimum age limit on female merchants. However, limiting the sale of industrial products themselves, after having abolished permanent markets, can be seen as a means of returning to “agricultural markets,” where farmers traded only vegetables and a surplus of produce.

According to other Chinese merchants with whom DailyNK met in Dandong on the 3rd, “Under the name of the North Pyongan Party Committee in Shinuiju, a three-day meeting was held between the Secretaries of the Party and of the Army and enterprise managers, from November 20th to the 22nd.”

They informed that “The meeting was held to discuss whether to prohibit jangmadang operations and put people who have been trading in the market to work at enterprises or factories, since regular provisions will resume starting next year.”

The recent efforts to regulate the markets have been analyzed as means to revert the standard of societal regulation to that of the pre-90s by restoring the provision system and normalizing factory operations. However, such an extreme measure is likely to give rise to serious civilian opposition, so there are doubts as to whether or not it can be realized.

The North Korean civilians, before the mid-90s, relied on a complete provision system supplied by the State, which included the provision of goods such as soap, clothes and other necessities. However, after the food shortage, the national provision system completely collapsed. As a result, civilians began acquiring most necessities, goods and food items through the jangmadang.

However, agricultural markets, where miscellaneous cereals, vegetables and other agricultural items raised in home gardens were traded, existed around the time when North Korea’s provision system was in normal operation.

Following the execution of the “July 1st Economic Management Improvement Measure” of 2002, the North Korean government established general markets which brought simple agricultural markets out in the open in February 2003. Since then, individuals leasing stands from the city mercantile department have been able to sell all kinds of industrial products as well.

One source in Chongjin stated in a phone conversation on the 6th regarding the recent rumors, “If the sources are Chinese merchants, than the rumor is not likely groundless. A majority of citizens sustain their livelihoods through the jangmadang.”

He agreed that “It is highly feasible that measures to toughen the regulation of industrial products in the market will be executed.”