North Korean Economy Watch

UPDATE 6 (2013-3-11): Here is the DPRK Ministry of Foreign Affairs response to the UNSC Resolution 2094. As you can imagine, they do not approve.

UPDATE 5 (2013-3-8): The full official resolution can be read here.  Here is the DPRK response to 2094. Here is some information on the Chinese response. Here is some more analysis/commentary from Scott Snyder in The Diplomat. Choson Ilbo reports that large North Korean bank accounts exempt from sanctions.

UPDATE 4 (2013-3-7): The resolution has passed 15-0.  Read more at the BBC, Washington Post, New York Times. Marcus Noland commentary here and here. Victor Cha here. NK Leadership Watch has more on the events in Pyongyang…

UPDATE 3 (2013-3-7): Once made public, the resolution will be posted here. Steve Herman (via Adam Cathcart) tweeted a link to the draft resolution which has been uploaded to Scribed. It is dated yesterday (2013-3-6).

UPDATE 2 (2012-3-7): Here is a Press Release from the US mission to the UNSC that went out this morning on the new sanctions (Resolution 2094). Thanks to Aidan Foster-Carter.

For reasons of brevity, I have put the entire document into this PDF for download.

UPDATE 1 (2013-3-7): Yonhap offers details on the unpublished sanctions proposal put forth by the US and China:

The three North Korean arms dealers are: Yon Chong-nam, the chief representative for the Korea Mining Developing Trading Corp (KOMID); Ko Chol-chae, the deputy chief representative for the KOMID; and Mun Chong-chol, an official at Tanchon Central Bank, the resolution showed.

KOMID is described by the resolution as North Korea’s “primary arms dealer and main exporter of goods and equipment related to ballistic missiles and conventional weapons,” while the North Korean bank is the “main DPRK (North Korea) financial entity for sales of conventional arms, ballistic missiles, and goods related to the assembly and manufacturing of such weapons.”

The two North Korean entities are the Second Academy of Natural Sciences, which is responsible for research and development of the North’s advanced weapons systems, including “missiles and probably nuclear weapons,” and the Korea Complex Equipment Import Corp. linked to the North’s “military-related sales,” according to the draft.

The Security Council is set to vote on the draft resolution on Thursday in New York.

The new sanctions will also focus on the DPRKs shipping, air, and “financial” industries:

The Security Council “decides that all states shall inspect all cargo within or transiting through their territory that has originated in the DPRK, or that is destined for the DPRK,” the draft said.

It also “calls upon states to deny permission to any aircraft to take off from, land in or overfly their territory, if they have information that provides reasonable grounds to believe that the aircraft contains items” banned by previous U.N. resolutions, the document said.

It also makes it difficult for North Korea to move in and out “bulk cash,” in an effort to squeeze the North Korean elite’s access to hard currency.

The Security Council also calls on all states to “exercise enhanced vigilance over DPRK diplomatic personnel so as to prevent such individuals from contributing to the DPRK’s nuclear or ballistic missile programs,” it said.

The U.N.’s powerful body “expresses its determination to take further significant measures in the event of a further DPRK launch or nuclear test,” the draft warned.

The DPRK’s Uranium enrichment program also gets a mention:

Apparently mindful of the North’s uranium concerns, the draft resolution includes Pyongyang’s uranium enrichment program for the first time, condemning “all the DPRK’s ongoing nuclear activities, including its “uranium enrichment.”

The North claims its uranium enrichment program is for peaceful energy development, but outside experts believe that it would give the country a new source of fission material to make atomic bombs, in addition to its widely known plutonium-based nuclear weapons program.

The DPRK, has of course, issued a response

In response to the proposed U.N. sanctions and ongoing Seoul-Washington joint military drills, the North’s military threatened to scrap the Korean War cease-fire.

Kim Yong-chol, a hard-line North Korean general suspected of involvement in a series of provocations against the South, read the statement on state TV, saying the North “will completely declare invalid” the Armistice Agreement that ended the 1950-53 Korean War.

The North also said it will cut off a military phone line at the truce village of Panmunjom.

South Korea’s military responded to the North’s bellicose threats with a verbal salvo, warning it would strike back at the North and destroy its “command leadership,” if provoked by Pyongyang.

ORIGINAL POST (2013-3-5): According to the New York Times:

The United Nations Security Council moved closer on Tuesday to expanding sanctions on North Korea for its nuclear and ballistic missile activities. The United States and China introduced a resolution that would target North Korean bankers and overseas cash couriers, tighten inspections of suspect ship and air cargo, and subject the country’s diplomats to invasive scrutiny and increased risk of expulsion.

Passage of the measure, drafted in response to the third North Korean underground nuclear test three weeks ago, seemed all but assured, in part because China — North Korea’s major benefactor — participated in drafting the language. It would be the fourth Security Council sanctions resolution on North Korea, which has defied the previous measures with increasing belligerence. A vote was expected on Thursday.

Infuriated, North Korea vowed to scrap the 1953 armistice that halted the Korean War and threatened to attack the United States with what the North Korean government news agency called an arsenal of diverse “lighter and smaller nukes.”

American officials played down the North Korean warning, which echoed bombastic admonitions that have become part of the standard fare from the North. Still, the threat of a North Korean nuclear attack seemed all the more provocative, coming two days after North Korea conveyed a message of friendship to a visiting American group that included Dennis Rodman, the former basketball star.

Susan E. Rice, the United States ambassador to the United Nations, who introduced the resolution in a closed session of the 15-member Security Council, told reporters afterward that it “builds upon, strengthens and significantly expands the scope of the strong U.N. sanctions already in place.”

For the first time, she said, the resolution would target “the illicit activities of North Korean diplomatic personnel, North Korean banking relationships, illicit transfers of bulk cash and new travel restrictions.” In the past, North Korea has been accused of running extensive counterfeiting and illegal drug enterprises, to raise much-needed hard currency.

Ms. Rice declined to predict whether the North would respond with another nuclear test or other retaliation. “All I can tell you is that the international community is united and very firm in its opposition to North Korea’s illicit nuclear and missile programs,” she said. “And the more provocations that occur, the more isolated and impoverished, sadly, North Korea will become.”

The Americans did not publicly release the resolution text. But a Security Council diplomat familiar with the measure, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because the language may still be subject to revision, said it broke new ground with restrictions and prohibitions on North Korean banking transactions, new travel restrictions and increased monitoring of North Korean ship and air cargo.

The diplomat also said that the resolution added a special lubricant and valve, needed for uranium enrichment, to items that North Korea cannot import.

The resolution would also place greater scrutiny on North Korean diplomatic personnel who are suspected of carrying proscribed goods and cash under the guise of official business, exposing them to possible deportation. “We know there are diplomats out there cooking up deals and moving funds around,” the Security Council diplomat said.

Among the other provisions, the diplomat said the resolution also included new language aimed at enforcement that had been absent from the earlier resolutions. It requires, for example, that if a North Korean cargo vessel crew refuses a host country’s request for inspection, the host is under a legal obligation to deny the vessel port access.

If a cargo plane is suspected of carrying prohibited goods to or from North Korea, the resolution would urge, but not require, that it be denied permission to fly over any other country — a new provision that could affect China, which routinely permits North Korean flights over its territory.

Previous rounds of sanctions have blacklisted trading and financial firms believed to be directly involved with nuclear and missile work. The sanctions have also restricted the importation of luxury goods, an effort directed at the country’s ruling elite.

American officials said privately that the latest resolution did not go as far as they would have liked, reflecting China’s insistence that the punitive measures remain focused on discouraging North Korea’s nuclear and missile behavior and avoid actions that could destabilize the country and lead to an economic collapse.

But the text was stronger than what some North Korean experts had anticipated, particularly the measures that could slow or frustrate the country’s banking activities and extensive dependence on cash payments in its trade with other countries.

“Going after the banking system in a broad brush way is arguably the strongest thing on this list,” said Evans J. R. Revere, a former State Department specialist in East Asian and Pacific affairs, and now senior director at the Albright Stonebridge Group, a Washington-based consulting company. “It does begin to eat into the ability of North Korea to finance many things.”

Mr. Revere attributed North Korea’s reaction on Tuesday to an accumulation of perceived affronts: China’s cooperation in drafting the sanctions, the annual military exercises under way between the United States and South Korea, and a hardened attitude by the South’s newly elected president, Park Geun-hye.

“This is North Korea’s way of saying, ‘We know you guys are doing several things, and here is our response,’ ” Mr. Revere said.

Here is coverage in The Guardian.

Here is coverage in the Washington Post.

Here is coverage of the DPRK’s response in CNN.

Here is my archive post on the DPRK’s third nuclear test.

Here is a statement (in Korean) by the North Korean military.

Read the full story here:
U.N. Resolution to Aim at North Korean Banks and Diplomats
New York Times
Rick Gladstone
2013-3-5

According to the New York Times:

At the Red Sun restaurant, a short-order joint on Crab and Beer Streets, live crabs with plump legs wriggle in a cooled tank, fresh from the North Korean coast just two and a half hours away by road.

The cook and owner, Jin Yuansheng, douses the prized crabs in boiling water and adds them to the steaming platters of sea cucumbers, shrimp and squid, also from North Korean waters, that he brings to the table.

This border town in China’s cold and poor northeast abuts North Korea along the icy Tumen River, where a bridge serves as the gateway for a lively commerce in shellfish plumbed from the Sea of Japan off North Korea. It is an exotic niche business in the more than $11 billion annual trade between North Korea and China, which is dominated by China’s purchases of cheap North Korean iron ore and coal.

…

By encouraging trade with North Korea, China aims to prevent North Korea’s government from collapsing, an outcome that could result in a Korean Peninsula allied to the United States. And business with North Korea serves a domestic goal: it helps employment and incomes in needy Jilin Province, where an estimated two million ethnic Koreans live.

That is where the crabs come in. Scooped from 3,000-foot-deep waters by trawlers crewed by North Korea workers, they are first taken to the North Korean port of Rason, a special enterprise zone serving foreign investors and largely financed by China. The crabs are trucked in ice to the Chinese border town of Quanhe, and then brought to the market in Yanji, or flown to cities across China as a delicacy for the affluent.

“Getting the crabs here is a delicate operation,” said Mr. Jin. “If they are too hot en route, they can die, and if they are too cold, they can freeze to death.”

…

For Chinese traders, importing crab is a lucrative business. They sell not only to upscale restaurants around China, but also to banquet organizers. The sales pitch stresses what is called the purity of the waters around impoverished North Korea compared with the more polluted seas around industrialized Japan and South Korea.

“The fishermen capture the crab deep down, so it is high quality,” said Qu Baojie, whose company imports crab from Rason. “South Korea and Japan can’t compete.”

His crab, branded as Crab Earth, Crab Heaven, is featured at the buffet of the Golden Jaguar, a fashionable Beijing restaurant, and is sold in red boxes suitable for business gifts, he said.

The fishing operations in Rason, an ice-free port that gives year-round sea access to China’s northeastern provinces, work fairly smoothly, Mr. Qu said. Fishing trawlers equipped with South Korean gear ply the waters at night, returning to shore about 4 a.m.

Their catches are then transferred to a state-owned plant where some crabs are packed live and others are processed, he said. About 300 North Korean workers are employed during the peak September to December fishing season. Fishing during the breeding season of June to September is banned, he said.

His crab business flourishing, he recently bought a new processing factory in Yanji, Mr. Qu said.

Some of the crab meat was vacuum packed in clear plastic, and sold to other Chinese traders, who in turn dispatched it to the United States, he said. The brand name of North Korean crab meat sold in the United States? “They slap on their own brands,” he said of the American buyers.

Read the full story here:
Caught in North Korea, Sold in China, Crabs Knit Two Economies
New York Times
Jane Perlez
2013-3-4

According to Yonhap:

North Korea’s grain and fertilizer imports from China nosedived in January, Seoul’s Korea Rural Economic Institute said Sunday, citing data from the Korea International Trade Association.

North Korea imported 2,174 tons of grain and 2 tons of fertilizer from China in the first month of this year, the institute said. By product, flour imports totaled 1,172 tons and corn imports reached 540 tons.

The volume of imported grain marked a mere 9.2 percent of the North’s imports of Chinese grain in the previous month, while the corresponding figure for fertilizer amounted to 20 percent, the institute said.

Compared with the same month of last year, the figures reached 25.9 percent and 0.03 percent, respectively.

“The steep decline in the North’s grain imports from China is very unusual, even considering the past trend of grain imports decreasing every January,” said Kwon Tae-jin, a researcher at the institute.

Read the full story here:
N. Korea’s grain imports from China plunge in Jan.
Yonhap
2013-3-3

According to Yonhap:

Despite rising cross-border tension, the trade between South and North Korea reached a record high last year, government data showed Saturday.

The volume of trade between the two Koreas reached US$1.97 billion in 2012, inching up from the previous record of $1.91 billion in 2010, according to the data by the Korea Customs Service.

South Korean products worth $896.26 million were shipped to North Korea, up 13.4 percent from the previous year.

The amount of products that came here from the North jumped 19.3 percent on-year to $1.07 billion, according to the data.

A total of 99 percent of the volume was shipped through a land route linked to the inter-Korean industrial complex in the North’s border town of Kaesong.

Read the full story here:
Inter-Korean trade hits record high in 2012
Yonhap
2013-2-9

Pictured Above: New hotel under construction. See more here. I am still not sure about the gold mine.

By Michael Rank

A Chinese company has announced plans to invest $20 million in a gold mine in North Korea as well as in the country’s first five-star hotel, a Chinese-language website reports.

The mine, with deposits of 50 tonnes of gold, is in Unsan county 운산군 in North Phyongan province 평안북도 in northwestern North Korea near the Chinese border.

The report said Weijin Investment Group is the first Chinese company from Hunan province to invest in North Korea.

It quoted Weijin chairman Xia Juhua as saying, “North Korea is backward in infrastructure construction, so we can fulfill the requirements of mineral resources exploitation by offering technology and management support to the country’s key projects like highways and hotels”.

He said Wejin plans to construct a 30-storey, five-star hotel to be completed this year but did not give a location. Xia also mentioned plans to invest in the rare earth sector in North Korea but gave no details.

The report said about 200 Chinese companies were investing in North Korea and that over 70% were focusing on the mining sector. But at least one of these ventures went spectacularly sour last year, when the Chinese partner launched an extraordinarily bitter attack on its North Korean counterpart, accusing the North Koreans of tearing up a multi-million-dollar deal, intimidating its staff, imposing outrageous extra charges and cutting off its power and water, as well as of corruption and demanding prostitutes whenever their North Korean colleagues visited China.

UPDATE (2013-3-13): NK News has published that the hotel will be named “Yonggwang Hotel (영광호텔)”…which is the name of the closest metro stop.

According to Yonhap:

North Korea dissolved a well-known state-run company in charge of attracting foreign investment due to its unsatisfactory performance, South Korea’s Unification Ministry said Friday.

“Daepung International Investment Group seems to have been disbanded, probably due to poor performance,” a ministry official said in a briefing on governmental and personnel changes taken under the Kim Jong-un regime over the past year.

The country also broke up another extra-governmental organization in charge of trade promotion and foreign investment with its work believed to have been reassigned to the government’s Commission for Joint Venture and Investment, according to the official.

Daepung Group was established at the instruction of the North’s highest political body, the National Defense Commission, in January 2010 as a means to attract foreign investment.

The group oversaw the now-suspended joint tourist program in Mount Kumgang on the eastern coast of North Korea.

The cross-border program had served as a cash cow for the North before Seoul halted it in 2008 following the shooting death of a South Korean tourist at the resort.

Additional Information:

1. Previous posts on the Taepung Investment Group can be found here.

2. NK Leadership Watch has an excellend review of the organization here.

3. The “Commission for Joint Venture and Investment” is also known as the Joint Venture Investment Committee (JVIC). See JVIC posts here.

Read the full story here:
N. Korea dissolves state-run firm in charge of attracting foreign investment: gov’t
Yonhap
2013-2-1

According to Radio Free Asia:

Businessmen in China told RFA’s Korean Service that until recently, the North’s leadership had largely kept to its rule of allowing trade officials to work abroad only once during their tenure as part of an effort to limit exposure to the outside world.

“The [practice of] ‘revolving door personnel allocation’ is prevalent in North Korea,” said one merchant surnamed Li from the city of Dandong in northeastern China’s Liaoning province, which is located on the border between the two countries.

But he said that an increasing number of North Koreans who had just recently returned from assignments in China were being sent to the neighboring country again in an official capacity.

“A North Korean trade representative who had worked in Dandong five years ago returned [to China] as a representative working in Beijing, which was surprising,” Li said, adding that he had never encountered a North Korean official who had served in the country on more than one occasion.

Another Chinese merchant surnamed Wang, who is currently living in North Korea, confirmed that more officials were being sent to China multiple times.

“Recently there are an increasing number of North Korean representatives who have repeatedly been dispatched abroad, although they are working in regions different from those where they had previously been posted,” Wang said.

One source suggested that Pyongyang may be continuing to rely on officials who have already served abroad in order to leverage their existing experience dealing with China’s trade sector.

He said that when the North Korean government requires an urgent trade agreement, it has become more willing to use officials with experience because training new personnel would be too time-intensive.

But another source said that the prompt resolution of trade negotiations is not the regime’s driving motive behind redeploying officials abroad.

“It’s not because the North Korean government needs an urgent resolution to trade matters, but simply because the officials who have previously worked abroad are lobbying so hard to be re-dispatched,” the source said.

Read the full story here:
North Korea Redeploying Officials
Radio Free Asia
Joon Ho Kim
2013-1-30

According to Yonhap:

North Korea imported significantly less grain and fertilizers from China last year, mainly due to improvements in overall food conditions in the country, local sources said Tuesday.

Kwon Tae-jin, a research fellow at the Seoul-based Korea Rural Community Corp., said data compiled from January through November showed North Korea’s grain imports from its neighboring country reaching 257,931 tons.

This represents a 26.8 percent decrease from 352,282 tons tallied for the same 11 month period in 2011.

“There was a noticeable drop in various grain imports last year,” the researcher said, adding that imports of corn and rice fell 19.2 percent and 16.7 percent vis-a-vis the year before, with wheat and bean purchases declining 56.2 percent and 7.4 percent, respectively.

The latest data also showed Pyongyang importing 252,780 tons of chemical fertilizers from China up till November, down 28.8 percent from 355,023 tons reported from the year before.

Experts in the South said the decrease reflected improvements in overall food supply in the communist country brought on by the new leadership paying more attention to the economy.

Read the full story here:
N. Korea’s grain, fertilizer imports from China fall sharply
Yonhap
2013-1-22

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
2013-1-17

China’s Ministry of Commerce reportedly sent about 70 specialists to North Korea to provide “joint consulting” services for Rajin and Hwanggumpyong and Wihwa Islands joint special economic zones (SEZs).

According to Yonhap News, about 70 specialists from the Department of Commerce of Jilin Province were dispatched to North Korea a few months ago to work on the China-DPRK joint venture projects. Their main focus is to discuss the management and legal systems of the SEZs, promotion of foreign investment, and share over 30 years of China’s experience on opening and reform.

The Department of Commerce of Jilin Province is directly under the Commerce Ministry. Chinese officials are going between Rajin, Sinuiju (near Hwanggumpyong and Wihwa Islands), and Pyongyang areas to negotiate on specific management measures concerning the SEZs.

Since Vice Chairman of the National Defense Commission (NDC) Jang Song Thaek visited China in August 2012, the two countries have reached an agreement and established joint management committee in Rason and Hwanggumpyong and Wihwa Islands. Since then, briefing sessions have been hosted in major Chinese cities to promote investment in North Korea.

Many speculated that joint management committees would be established in both zones.

A recent article in North Korea’s economic journal Kyongje Yongu (October 30, 2012), outlined general types of SEZ management: management-led, public enterprise management, cooperative management, joint venture, and contract-based management committees. Government-led management committee was referred to as the most common form.

Currently, the Kaesong Industrial Complex is jointly operated by North and South Korea by a management committee. However, one drawback to this system is that the high government involvement places enormous constraints on the activities of investing companies.

China, on the other hand, is trying to reduce North Korea’s intervention in the management process of the SEZs. China is also shying away from adopting a management committee-led form of management.

Meanwhile, the seventh meeting of the DPRK-China Intergovernmental Cooperation Committee on Economics, Trade, and Science and Technology was held in Pyongyang on January 9, where an agreement on economic and technology cooperation was signed. At a subsequent ceremony, the two sides also signed an agreement for the construction of administrative office buildings in the Rason and Hwanggumpyong SEZs.

The DPRK-China Intergovernmental Cooperation Committee on Economics, Trade, and Science and Technology began in March 2005 and has held one to two meetings each year to promote bilateral economic cooperation.

According to the Choson Ilbo:

North Korea is tightening surveillance of the population using tens of thousands of Chinese-made surveillance cameras. According to Chinese customs data, the North imported a total of 16,420 CCTV cameras worth about US$1.66 million from China from January to November last year.

In 2009, the first year China published statistics on bilateral trade, the North imported a whopping 40,465 surveillance cameras from China. In 2010 the figure was 22,987 and in 2011 22,118. Altogether the North has imported over 100,000 cameras worth about $10 million.

…

Meanwhile, crude oil and oil products were the major products the North imported from China between January and November last year with a total value US$526 million. Next came naphtha products ($101.7 million), cargo trucks ($92.2 million), and flour ($58.8 million).

Read the full story here:
Chinese Cameras Help N.Korean Regime’s Surveillance
Choson Ilbo
2013-1-14