North Korean Economy Watch

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
NK Brief No. 10-04-12-1
4/12/2010

As inflation and food worries continue to grow in North Korea, social unrest is palpable. According to the group ‘Good Friends’, North Korean officials slashed prices on all goods to 1/100th of their going rate in an effort to ease the public. Considering the fact that North Korea revalued its currency by the same ratio on November 30, it appears that Pyongyang is effectively acknowledging the reform’s failure.

The Good Friends newsletter reports that the Korean Workers’ Party cabinet had handed down an order to reduce the price of all goods by a factor of 100:1, while the people of North Korea were told during local meetings that currency was revalued at 100 to 1, but not in order to reduce the sale of goods by 100 to 1, as well.

It also stated that at the first cabinet meeting in March, there was discussion on the fact that it was rumored that prices had climbed several times higher than official prices, and would continue to rise. It was decided that, at first, people thought of the currency reform as a 100-fold increase in prices, and that the same was true of management in state-run organizations. Later, at the second meeting of the cabinet, it was decided that a ‘100 to 1 Price Plan’ would be distributed to each city and town.

Now, People’s Committees and security forces in each city and town are enforcing the ‘100 to 1 Price Plan’ while the central Party’s 100:1 commerce committee has distributed a class syllabus in support of the price modifications, which was lectured on throughout the country from March 16-18. This indicates that the government is again controlling all prices throughout the country.

With no goods or aid flowing in from outside, it is likely that the price and exchange rates will continue to climb. On December 9, rice sold for 23 won, but the value of the new currency falls daily, and starvation is striking people in several areas throughout the country. Anger over government policies and general feelings angst are not hard to find in families and labor groups. The government is trying to control the prices of daily necessities, but if it is unable to do so, this situation cannot avoid becoming explosive. The central government has also sent officials out to different areas of the country to enforce a rice price of 25 won/Kg. This is the highest rice sold for in markets prior to the currency reform. Enforcing the same price throughout the country is an attempt to stabilize markets, and is a temporary measure to try to keep residents’ tempers from flaring.

The November currency reform was the first currency revaluation in 17 years, and was part of a set of strong measures to restrict markets, along with market closures and bans on foreign currency. However, since last February, the inflation sparked by the currency revaluation has grown severe and internal unrest has increased, leading authorities to reopen markets and set price caps. Now, the price of rice in North Korean markets appears to have stabilized at 400 won per kilogram, but due to the unrest over the last 100 days, many middle-class residents have fallen into poverty.

According to the AFP:

A South Korean aid group said Tuesday it would send 300 tons of flour and other supplies to needy North Koreans this week amid reports that dire food shortages are worsening.

A ship carrying 60 containers of food, daily supplies and educational needs such as pencils will leave the western port of Incheon Saturday, said the Join Together Society.

“The shipment will benefit some 12,000 marginalised people at 50 orphanages and other institutions across the country,” society spokesman Seo Dong-Woo told AFP.

It includes 300 tons of wheat flour, 360,000 packs of soy milk and other foodstuffs, enough to feed 12,000 people for three months, he said, declining to disclose the cost.

South Korean officials and aid groups say the already severe food shortages are expected to worsen this year after a poor grain harvest in 2009.

A bungled currency revaluation last November has reportedly played havoc with distribution networks, aggravating food shortages and sparking inflation.

North Korea has relied on foreign aid to feed its people since a devastating famine in the 1990s killed hundreds of thousands.

Overseas donations for programmes run by the UN’s World Food Programme and others have fallen sharply because of the standoff over the North’s nuclear and missile programmes. Pyongyang has also rejected some aid.

South Korea’s government has since 2008 suspended annual shipments of fertiliser and food to the North amid rising tensions, but private aid groups continue to send shipments.

Read the full story here:
S.Korean aid group to send food to North
Associated Free Press
4/6/2010

Institute for Far Eastern Studies
NK Brief No. 10-04-05-1
4/5/2010

It has recently been verified that following the currency reforms at the end of last year, North Korea passed 11 laws revising and reforming the system of government control over the economy. Among these measures is a law banning the black market sales of grain.

The North’s food administration law, revised last November 3, clearly bans the black market trade and smuggling of grains, and sets the punishment for such activities as the confiscation of the grains in question. In addition, an order was passed down stating that when food supplies are rationed to a labor management office, they are to be distributed in accordance with a worker’s efforts, position, and productivity. On the same day, a new agricultural law was passed that stated if organizations and groups that were granted land for private plots failed to meet state-set harvest quotas, the plots could be confiscated.

In November and December of last year, North Korea also enacted the Real Estate Management Law, Goods Consumption Standard Law, Construction Materials Import Law, Import/Export Country of Origin Law, Waterworks Law, Labor Quantity Law, Farm Law, Sewer System Law, and the Mariner Law. Among these, the Labor Quantity Law sets the number of laborers per hourly production demands, stipulates labor contracts, and determines remuneration in accordance with worker performance. This law is unprecedented in that it allows the responsible organization or business managers or supervisors administrative and even penal authority by giving them power over labor evaluations and payment.

The Farm Law allows each farm to retain some of its harvest, and making it responsible for selling its goods to the state, while on the other hand, forbidding illegal agricultural production. This law, by strengthening state control over agricultural goods, appears to be an effort to restart the Public Distribution System.

The Real Estate Law, a mechanism to collect user fees, stipulates, “Real estate cannot be lent or left to different individuals, groups, organizations or enterprises without the permission of the applicable authority.” Along with this, the law on consumption includes a clause that links consumption of particular goods with those goods’ production in order to prevent waste, as well as a clause designed to reduce or eliminate the use of imported goods.

The law on the import of construction materials gives the government leverage in all aspects of such activity, including planning, processing, transfer, inspection, construction and testing. In addition, if someone from an enterprise or organization imports construction goods without government authorization, changes an import plan, distributes, transports, or wastes construction wares, he or she is subject to administrative punishment.

Ultimately, economic legislation enacted or revised after the currency reform appears to be aimed at strengthening the planned economic system while increasing government control over public revenue and encouraging efforts to recover without outside assistance.

Daily NK
Yoo Gwan Hee
4/5/2010

In North Korea, April 1st is commemorated as “Tax Abolition Day.” Ever since the law, “On Completely Abolishing Taxes,” was ratified through the Supreme People’s Assembly on March 21, 1974, North Korea has claimed both within and without to be the only country in the world that does not collect taxes. However, their claim is only for propaganda purposes, for North Koreans labor under a list of state-imposed taxes and duties which grows longer day by day.

Take the example of electricity. Power distribution center members in every city and town visit households in their region alongside the chairperson of the local People’s Unit, whereupon they collect electricity payments according to the number of electric bulbs and electronic equipment therein. This process is done quarterly. In the late 1990s, the quarterly electricity bill per household in Pyongyang was about 20 won. To reduce costs, of course there were people who removed electric bulbs and hid electronic equipment such as irons whenever the power distribution center had workers in their neighborhood.

Since the 2002 economic management reforms were announced on July 1, however, electricity bills have increased greatly. For families living in luxurious apartments in the Jung-district of Pyongyang with televisions, refrigerators and electric fans, households pay as much as 800 or 900 won per quarter.

After the so-called July 1 Reform Measure, troubles between the power distribution center and the people increased. The North Korean people were understandably displeased with the power distribution center, for it was trying to collect money for a utility whose availability was and remains far from regular.

Next, let’s look at reserve food and organizational expenses. North Korea has nine levels of food distribution. From 100g to 900g is supposed to be distributed per day depending on the level, but for the purpose of stocking up reserves, up to 100g is collected from the people instead. Additionally, people are forced to submit approximately two percent of their salary for organizational expenses.

Next, to support for the construction of historical sites. North Korea emphasizes the “voluntary participation” of the North Korean people under the Party apparatus and workers’ organizations. Construction of historical sites for the idolization of Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il is frequently organized. Also, officials often collect money from people in order to support those construction projects of which the cabinet is in charge.

Then there is free education. It is officially called “free education,” but school administration expenses are all covered by students and parents. Students have to collect waste paper, waste iron and waste rubber, or raise rabbits and submit the pelts to school. After 2000, there have even been students engaging in business around markets in order to provide supplies for submission to the school.

Onwards, then, to market stands rental fees. After the July 1 Reform Measure, the amount of tax collected at markets suddenly increased. Market stand rental fees already existed before the July 1 Reform Measure but, after 2002, market management centers started collecting market management tax as well, basing it on each product sold. Noodle sellers paid ten won per day, while soybean curd sellers paid three won.

Market stand rental fees became more systematic as well after general markets opened in late 2003. According to the product being sold and daily sales figures, market management centers charged rental fees. In present-day Nammun Market, Hoiryeong, the stand rental fee is said to have been fixed at 100 won per month.

Separate from the stand rental fee, monthly tax is charged on products for sale in the markets. For example, Nammun merchants pay additional taxes of 300 won for industrial goods, 180 won for pork, 150 for cigarettes, alcoholic drinks and fish, 120 won for food and 100 won for general merchandise.

So, while the North Korean media deliver their diet of propaganda promoting North Korea as the world’s only taxless country, be wise to the reality of the North Korean people suffering under an increasing tax burden.

Ugh…I really don’t know what to say at this point.  Depressing.

According to the Associated Press (via Forbes):

“In the early days immediately after the currency change, market prices were not fixed, so markets were closed for some days,” Ri Ki Song, a professor at the Institute of Economy at North Korea’s Academy of Social Sciences, told APTN. “But now all markets are open, and people are buying daily necessities in the markets.”

Ri was provided by the North’s government in response to a request to talk to an official who could explain its economic situation. It is very rare for North Korean officials to discuss such policies with foreign media.

Impoverished yet nuclear-armed North Korea has in recent years allowed some free markets for food and consumer items, while others not sanctioned by the state have also sprung up as the public copes with declining living standards and food shortages.

“Outside Korea, many people have been talking loudly about problems that occurred during the change of currency in our country, but there wasn’t any of the social disorder that they have been talking about,” Ri said. “Now the situation is being stabilized overall, and the economy is functioning well, thanks to some of the measures that have been taken.”

Ri insisted the government’s objective is to phase out markets completely and rely on a state-controlled network of outlets to supply its citizens.

Read the full article here.

There is no shortage of posts on the DPRK government’s growing antagonism towards markets in the last several years. 

The Heritage Foundation reminds us all that the DPRK has languished at the bottom of the international Index of Economic Freedom for years and asks, “how low can you go?”

The Daily NK tells us that times are pretty tough for many in the DPRK right now:

A source from North Hamkyung Province confirmed as much yesterday in a telephone interview with The Daily NK, saying, “Lower class people, who live from hand to mouth through the markets, have been suffering from the most serious difficulties since the redenomination.”

This is because for around two months the markets were shut down completely, and even after the markets reopened market price ceilings were adopted, so small traders and those who lived by relying on the markets were among those hit hardest, according to the source.

“Those running street-stands, alley market traders, porters and others who live by clinging to the markets mostly lost their money in the redenomination. Although markets have started to get animated again, these people are still facing difficulties due to a lack of seed money.”

The source added, “The food situation is actually dire. Despite the authorities’ program of releasing relief rice to poor households, in reality real distribution for them is not that helpful.” This is because any such state relief program is temporary, and cannot address the poorer classes’ fundamental problems.

He emphasized, “Now, people have started worrying about spring poverty, which comes every year in around May or June. In Onsung, Hoiryeong and Musan in North Hamkyung Province, the rice price has dropped to around 400 won per kilogram, but there are still so many people who cannot even afford to eat corn.”

The source gave the example of one of his acquaintances, whom he called Mr. Lee. He used to live by trading secondhand products in Musan.

Pre-redenomination, Mr. Lee managed around 200,000~300,000 won (in old value) of assets, dealing parts and used bicycle tires with his wife. However, following the currency redenomination of November 30, 2009, he was left with 1,900 won of new currency.

To make matters worse, he had only 100 kilograms of corn, which he had obtained in October. His family has been eking out that corn over the last few months.

Since February, the Musan Market resumed operations, but since prices have been unstable, not many people have wanted to buy. Recently Mr. Lee was forced to sell his one-room house to realize some capital.

As the source concluded, “The most terrible victims of the currency redenomination, market closures and inflation are lower class people in the cities. Nowadays, city residents feel lucky when they have just coarse corn.”

“In May or June, when the spring poverty period begins, the situation of the urban poor class will become even more terrible.”

Here is a satellite image of the Musan Market.

According ot the Daily NK:

The current rice price downturn in North Korea has been caused by the fact that wholesalers and individuals dumped rice and corn in bulk onto the market in order to avoid it being confiscated by the authorities, according to sources inside the country.

A source from North Hamkyung Province reported on the 26th that the rice price in Chongjin had dropped even further.

Recently, the authorities reportedly announced that food distribution would be normalized and that grain stored by individuals would be confiscated. Therefore, citizens started releasing their stored food onto the market in order to avoid confiscation, generating oversupply.

The source said on a telephone conversation with the Daily NK on the 26th, “In the Youth Park Market in Shinam-district, Chongjin, rice is now 480 won and corn 210 won per kilo.

The source said, “The Army security apparatus has been confiscating food stored by foreign currency earning organizations. It is a part of the implementation of their plan to lower food prices to state-designated levels.”

One North Korean resident told The Daily NK last week, “Prices have been fluctuating since the redenomination, but now a notice has been handed down from the Cabinet saying that prices will be stabilized by April 1. It says the Cabinet will deal with this confusion in the people’s economy.”

The source added, “In inspections by the Prosecutors Department of the Ministry of the People’s Armed Forces and Defense Security Command, foreign currency earning apparatus affiliated with military units stationed in Chongjin and another five organizations were revealed to be storing around 260 tons of grains, which was confiscated. Around 90 tons of grain stored by the No. 9 Division was also taken and managers were interrogated by the inspections group.”

With the downturn in food prices, the exchange rate in Chongjin also went down to 690 won to the dollar.

Confiscation Threat Spurs Grain Market Flood
Daily NK
Jin Hyuk Su
3/29/2010

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
NK Brief No. 10-03-24-1
3/24/2010

It has been reported that food prices in North Korea have leveled out in the latter half of March. An informant from North Hamgyeong Province told Daily NK on March 21 that “nonglutinous rice is 950 Won (per kilogram), corn is 220 Won (per kilogram), and pork is 1,800 Won (per kilogram).” The same source stated that prices in the Onseong town market, Namyang Market, prices were similar. It appears that the prices have dropped because of the increase in overseas food assistance to the North and the fact that emergency rations are now being sold on markets.

Of course, there is no guarantee that the current prices will hold steady in the future, and there is no shortage of people voicing concerns that with the spring lean season approaching, rising food prices and instances of starvation could be unavoidable. On February 4, North Korean authorities dictated that rice could not be sold for more than 240 Won/Kg, and that corn must be sold for 130 Won/Kg or less. Along with the fall in the cost of rice, foreign currency exchange rates also appear to be falling. On March 21, the Yuan traded for 100 Won, and one dollar sold for 720 Won.

According to Daily NK, in the Nammun Market of Hyeryeong city, glutinous rice sold for 900 Won/Kg, while corn went for 500 Won/Kg. On the 13th of last month, (polished) rice cost 1,200 Won/Kg, while corn sold for 550 Won/Kg. The exchange rate was 1 Yuan:120 Won and 1 USD: 1,00Won.

On March 20, the Korean Central News Agency reported that the second session of the North’s 12th Supreme People’s Assembly would open in Pyongyang on April 9. While the agenda was not revealed, the assembly meets each spring, generally to settle the previous year’s budget and set the spending schedule of the current year. There is no reason to believe this year would be different.

At this assembly meeting, it is also likely that new members of the National Defense Commission, Cabinet, and other high-level administrators will be sworn in. In particular, with the aftermath of failed currency reforms and growing reports of starvation throughout the country, there will likely be new economic measures introduced along with the replacement of some officials.

This week there have been several reports about conditions worsening following the DPRK’s currency reform.  Here are links to some of those stories:

New Signs of Unrest in North Korea?
Peterson Institute
Conversation with Marcus Noland (audio)
March 22, 2010

Resistance against N. Korean regime taking root, survey suggests
Washington Post
Blaine Harden
March 24, 2010

Political Attitudes under Repression: Evidence from North Korean Refugees
Stephan Haggard, Marcus Noland
East West Center Working Paper
No. 21, March 2010

North Koreans fear another famine amid economic crisis
Los Angeles Times
Barbara Demick
3/23/2010

North Koreans fear the country is on the verge of a new famine
Times of London
Jane Macartney
3/20/2010

According to the AFP, the US is ready to provide food assistance but the North Koreans banned assistance a year ago:

The United States would consider resuming food aid to North Korea if Pyongyang moves to lift a year-old refusal of humanitarian assistance, the State Department said Tuesday.

“There are profound needs for the North Korean population, and to the extent that North Korea wants to accept aid from the international community, including the United States, we will be willing to consider that,” department spokesman Philip Crowley said at a daily briefing.

In June 2008, Washington agreed to send 500,000 tonnes of food aid to North Korea, including 400,000 tonnes through the UN’s World Food Program and the remainder through other non-governmental agencies.

In March last year, however, the hermit nation began refusing US food aid, without offering a reason.

“If we (provide humanitarian assistance) in the future, just as we’ve done that in the past, our efforts will be to make sure that the aid actually goes to the North Korean people who need it most and is not diverted to other groups such as the military,” Crowley said.

According to Itar-Tass:

The Altai Territory will supply a test batch of flour to North Korea weighing 2,000 tons. The concern Altaiskiye Melnitsy (Altai Mills) signed a corresponding contract with the foreign trade state amalgamation of North Korea, ITAR-TASS learnt at the enterprise on Tuesday.

“Further increasing of volumes of supplies will mainly depend on the export price of flour,” general director Sergei Klinov said. The currently in force railway tariff from the Altai Territory to the border with North Korea, and this is about 3,600 roubles per ton, exceeds half the cost of flour in the export price structure. In such a situation, the issue of quality may become secondary for North Korea, and it will continue buying flour in China.”

Read the full stoy here:
Altai to begin supplying flour to North Korea
Itar-Tass
3/16/2010

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
NK Brief No. 10-03-12-1
3/12/2010

As the spring lean season approaches, the black market exchange rate for North Korean Won continues to grow, while the prices of rice and other necessities are increasing proportionately. Immediately following last year’s currency reform (November 30), rice was sold at 20 Won per Kg, while it cost 400~600 Won at the end of January and has grown to as much as 1000 Won per Kg in early March. In other words, the cost of rice has jumped 50-fold since the currency reform, negating most effects of the ‘100 to 1’ devaluation reform in just a few months.

The online magazine Daily NK reported, “In the North Pyongan Province area of Sinuiju, a kilogram of rice, which cost 400 Won at the end of last month, cost 800 Won on the 2nd, and 1000 Won on the 3rd. It is being said that the in the end, the price of rice will rise to pre-reform prices (of 2,500 Won per Kg).” The shortwave radio broadcaster Open Radio for North Korea reported similarly, stating, “North Korea’s rice prices, which were around 400 Won per kilogram at the end of February, shot up to 1000 Won on the 3rd of this month.”

More than anything, the reason North Korea’s rice price is doubling weekly is the plummeting value of its currency in relation to the PRC Yuan and U.S. dollar. In January, the (North) Korean Trade Bank set the official exchange rate for Yuan at 14.19 Won and for USD at 30 Won. However, according to Daily NK, the black market exchange rate for U.S. currency jumped from 1200 Won per USD at the end of February to 2100~2500 Won by March 3. Open Radio for North Korea reported that in Hyeryong, North Hamgyong Province, one Yuan traded from 80 Won on the black market February 25, jumped to 120~150 Won by the 28th, and traded for 270 Won at the beginning of March, tripling in just three days. It appears that the skyrocketing prices of food and goods in North Korean markets is directly related to North Korean authorities’ measures to control foreign currency, and Chinese Yuan, in particular.

Confidence in the value of North Korean currency has plummeted, and North Koreans are scrambling to grab up foreign capital as rumors circulate of further currency reform. Residents are trying to get their hands on Chinese Yuan, but North Korean authorities are working to prevent it due to concerns of Chinese dominance over the North’s economy. In order to block Chinese inroads into the North Korean economy, the government has banned the import of Chinese currency, and this is a major factor driving North Korean inflation today.