North Korean Economy Watch

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
2011-9-29

This year’s trade volume between China and the DPRK reached an all time high.

According to the (South) Korea Trade Investment Promotion Agency, the trade volume between China and North Korea between January and July of 2011 recorded 3.097 billion USD, surpassing last year’s 3.472 billion USD by 88 percent.

This is the second year since 2008 for the yearly trade volume to continue to break the record of the previous year.

During the same period, China exported 1.783 billion USD and imported 1.314 billion USD to North Korea. Compared to the same period last year, exports increased by 53.3 percent while imports increased by 169.2 percent, and its trade surplus decreased by 30.4 percent.

The main exports of China are oil, diesel freight vehicles, nitrogenous fertilizers, and grains while the top imports were anthracites, steel, and non-alloy pig irons.

The total amount of fertilizer North Korea imported between January and June totaled 193,960 tons (equaling about 39.88 million USD), a hike of 91 percent against last year’s 99,588 tons (25.4 million USD).

The price per ton of imported fertilizers was 188 USD for ammonium sulfate fertilizer (164,456 ton) and 346 USD for urea fertilizers (25,577 ton). Last year, 59,110 tons of ammonium sulfate fertilizer and 45,310 tons of urea fertilizer were imported. A drastically higher amount of ammonium sulfate fertilizer was imported this year compared with the previous year, the cause of which is speculated to be either a radical decrease in the fertilizer production in North Korea or an attempt to improve the country’s food production.

The total amount of grains imported from China from January to June totaled 149,173 tons, a boost of 5.5 percent from the previous year. The price of grain per ton went up from 372 USD to 404 USD, a rise of 8.6 percent. The cost of imported grain increased 14.4 percent against last year, an increase from 52.7 million USD to 63.1 million USD.

The grains imported were corn (38.2 percent), flour (37.5 percent), rice (16.9 percent), and bean (7.2 percent). Compared to last year, corn and flour imports rose while rice and bean slightly decreased. This year’s average price per ton of grain was 661 USD for bean, 538 USD for rice, 395 USD for flour, and 304 USD for corn.

According to Yonhap:

North Korea imported nearly three times as much grain from China in August as last year, an expert said Thursday, an unusual increase that may suggest food shortages in the impoverished nation have worsened.

The North purchased 47,978 tons of corn, flour and rice in August, up from 16,723 tons in the same period of last year, said Kwon Tae-jin, a North Korea expert at the Korea Rural Economic Institute.

“It is unusual that the North increased grain imports sharply in August ahead of the harvest season in fall,” Kwon said. “It is believed that the North increased imports as its grain stock is falling low.”

The North imported 216,535 tons of grain from China in the first eight months, a rise of 20 percent compared to the same period last year.

China is the North’s key ally, economic benefactor and diplomatic supporter.

North Korea suffered devastating floods in recent months that washed away tens of thousands of hectares of farmland, damage that is feared to threaten its already fragile food situation.

The North has relied on international handouts since the late 1990s when it suffered a massive famine that was estimated to have killed 2 million people.

Back in June 2011, Yonhap reported:

North Korea imported more than 50,000 tons of grains from its key ally China in May, an expert said Thursday, amid chronic food shortages in the North.

The North purchased 50,328 tons of corn, flour and rice in May, up 31.5 percent compared to the same period last year, said Kwon Tae-jin, a North Korea expert at the Korea Rural Economic Institute.

The North also imported 114,300 tons of fertilizer from China in the first five months, a rise of 39 percent compared to the same period last year, Kwon said, citing figures from Seoul’s Korea International Trade Association.

China is the North’s last remaining ally, key economic benefactor and diplomatic supporter.

In March, the U.N. food agency appealed for 430,000 tons of food aid to feed 6 million vulnerable North Korean people, a quarter of the country’s population.

Washington sent its delegation to North Korea in May to assess the food situation, though no decision on food aid has been made yet.

The North has relied on international handouts since the late 1990s when it suffered a massive famine that was estimated to have killed 2 million people.

However, the outside aid has dwindled following the North’s missile and nuclear tests and other provocations.

There are basically two conflicting narratives being played out in the media in regards to this kind of news. The first narrative is that heavy seasonal floods and typhoon damage wiped out a large percentage of North Korea’s fall harvest and they are in desperate need of food assistance. The second narrative is that the DPRK is boosting food stocks in advance of 2012, the year the country is supposed to transition into a “Strong and Prosperous Country” (according to official propaganda). Since the DPRK’s appeal for large-scale food aid has gone largely ignored by the international community (despite the best efforts of organizations like the UNWFP and charities like Samaritan’s Purse), the country is forced to increase food stocks through international trade if it wants to live up to the expectations it has created among the domestic population.  Meeting these expectations is especially important right now as they will play an important role in facilitating the leadership  transition to Kim Jong-il’s designated successor, Kim Jong-un.

I have been posting stories about this year’s food shortage here (though neglected for a couple of weeks).

Read the full stories here:
N. Korea’s grain imports from China increase threefold
Yonhap
2011-9-29

N. Korea increases grain imports from China
Yonhap
2011-6-30

According to Yonhap:

The price of rice in North Korea has risen constantly over the past six months, reaching as much as 2,400 North Korean won (US$17.18) per kilogram early this month, South Korea’s Unification Ministry said Friday.

After falling to as low as 1,400 won per kilogram, rice prices started to increase in April and reached between 2,200 and 2,400 won by early this month, according to the ministry, which handles inter-Korean affairs.

Here is a compendium of stories about thie DPRK’s alleged food shortage and food aid this year.

Read the full story here:
Price of rice in N. Korea rises over past 6 months: ministry
Yonhap
2011-9-23

Pictured above (Google Earth): An unofficial street market in Sinchon (신천) is bustling while the nearby official marketplace is closed.  See in Google Maps here.

The Choson Ilbo posted a few factoids about the official and unofficial economies of the DPRK:

The rationing system, the backbone of the socialist planned economy, has nearly collapsed. Some 4 million people still live on rations — 2.6 million in Pyongyang and 1.2 million soldiers.

But a senior South Korean government official said 20 million North Koreans rely absolutely on the underground economy.

“A North Korean family needs 90,000-100,000 North Korean won for living costs per month, but workers at state-run factories or enterprises earn a mere 2,000-8,000 won,” the source said. “So North Koreans have no choice but to become market traders, cottage industrialists or transport entrepreneurs to make up for shortages.”

Many stores, restaurants, and beauty parlors are privately owned. Private tutors teach music or foreign languages. Carpenters have evolved as quasi-manufacturers who receive orders and make furniture on a massive scale. They earn 80,000-90,000 won per month on average.

It is common to find people in front of railway stations or in markets who wait to earn a few extra won by carrying luggage or purchases in their handcarts. Like taxis, their fees are calculated on a basic fee and the distance covered.

In the countryside, people earn money by selling corn or beans grown in their own vegetable gardens in the back yard or in the hills. They can harvest 700 kg of corn a year from a 1,600 sq.m. lot. And by selling 50 kg of corn a month they make 30,000-40,000 won on top of their daily living costs.

“Ordinary North Koreans have become so dependent on the private economy that they get 80-90 percent of daily necessities and 60-70 percent of food from the markets,” the security official said.

Noland and Haggard’s recent book, Witness to Transformation, contains thorough and revealing data on market utilization in the PDRK. More here.

Over the last couple of decades, Pyongyang has shown a callous reluctance to part with its foreign currency reserves to acquire the necessary amount of food needed to sustain its population.  The DPRK government has, however, promoted a number of domestic initiatives, some financed locally and others with international assistance, intended to boost regional food security (and decrease individual mobility) which have cost it little in the way of scarce foreign currency. Some of these projects have been previously documented on this web page: The construction of regional fish and fruit farms, as well as large-scale land rezoning, land-reclamation (and here), and sea-scaping projects.

Today the Russian media reports yet another clever idea the North Koreans are pursuing to increase domestic food production: renting farmland in Eastern Russia.  According to RIA Novosti:

A delegation from North Korea, which is facing severe food shortages, has held talks with authorities of the Amur region in Russia’s Far East on leasing land to grow vegetables and grain, a regional official said on Thursday.

North Korea plans to rent several hundred thousand hectares of land in the Amur region, which has about 200,000 hectares of idle land in regional, municipal or private ownership.

“The North Korean authorities are planning an unprecedented agricultural project – to create a farm in the Far East to grow soybeans, potatoes, corn and other crops. Everything that Korean citizens need, because the issue of food shortages there are acute from time to time due to land shortages,” the official told RIA Novosti.

North Korean state media said the country’s chronic food problems have been exacerbated by heavy rains in June and July. A tropical storm washed away or inundated 60,000 hectares of land in farm regions.

Amur region minister of foreign economic relations Igor Gorevoi said the land must not be abandoned.

“We are also interested in investment in farm machinery and equipment. Another key condition is that the newly-formed Korean company must be registered in the Amur region, which means tax revenue for the budget,” he said.

The initial lease of the land, which is to be auctioned off, amounts to 50 rubles ($1.70) a year per hectare.

The Korean delegation plans to consider the terms of the lease next week.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-il, whose country faces increasing international isolation because of its nuclear program, visited Russia in August in his own armored train on a rare foreign trip and had talks with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev. Russia then promised to send 50,000 tons of grain to Pyongyang.

It will be interesting to see if this project can be realized.

Additional Information:

Kim Jong-il recently met Russian president Medvedev in this area.

Russia is sending 50,000 tons of grain to the DPRK in flood relief.

Read the full story here:
North Korea to rent farm land in Russia’s Far East
RIA Novosti
2011-9-1

Pictured Above: Love North Korean Children Bakery (Sonbong, DPRK)

According to the Korea Herald:

When Seoul votes on whether to provide free lunches for school kids here on Aug. 24, many of the 50,000 children living in the North Korean city of Sariwon will likely be skipping their midday meal.

That’s what they are obliged to do most days, says George Rhee, the South Korean minister trying to raise 500 million won ($466,500) to feed them. Rhee, whose father fled the North during the Korean War, already runs three bakeries in the impoverished country, feeding 10,000 children a day through his charity Love for North Korean Children (LINK).

“I have thought of my family in North Korea so many times,” said Rhee, who is now a minister for a South Korean church in London.

“When I got British citizenship in 2002, I visited North Korea for the first time. It was very shocking. There were many children around me begging uncle, uncle give me some food. I am so hungry. I was thinking ‘how can I help such poor children?’

“First of all I was thinking of building an orphanage in North Korea but they said that there are no orphans there because Kim Il-sung is the father of all the children. They disagreed with an orphanage but they suggested a bakery.”

The traditional steamed wheat flour rolls now made at Rhee’s three successful bread factories, located in Pyongyang, Ranjin and Hyangsan, are a perfect product to feed children in a country where even food aid is often suspected to be misappropriated.

“The bread has a very short shelf life compared to baked rolls so they have to be eaten straight away. They cannot be stored and sold on,” he said.

“I have been to North Korea many times and I know that the bread in my bakeries is going straight to the children’s mouths at lunchtimes. I am very proud of that fact.”

On his last trip to the North in June, Rhee visited Sariwon city, around 100 kilometers south of Pyongyang, to view a disused building he wants to turn into his next bread-making project.

The communist country’s Korea Education Fund, called a “non-profit non-governmental funding association” by officials there, has asked Rhee to open the bakery in the city of 200,000 people in Hwanghaebuk Province, requesting a facility big enough to feed all 50,000 children living there.

While he cannot foresee producing so much bread in the near future, he does think he could supply materials for a 250 million won project to transform the derelict site. His charity would then raise 250 million won a year to provide flour to make the 5,000 rolls a day, providing a school meal for all children aged four to seven there.

“We are trying to help them develop the food infrastructure in these small communities. They don’t have anything to feed their ordinary children. We are trying to help them,” said Rhee.

“We can use this 60-year-old building that was used to provide some sweets and milk for children until about 10 years ago, but that work has been stopped now. They are using old buildings for a lot of different purposes, for example they are trying to extract sugar from seaweed they are doing a lot of different things.

“They wanted our ministry to be able to establish a bakery providing their own people with work and help their economy.”

As with the other bakeries LINK has already established in the country, the facility would have flour delivered from China and employ around 15 local staff.

International sponsorship manager Dr. Shirley Vander Schaaf said: “In a lot of ways it is very good because they are trying to decentralize the distribution of food, bringing it down to a community level.

“This would be a change from having it administered from Pyongyang. They seem to be putting the ownership and responsibility back into the communities, which makes sense. They are utilizing the funding and their resources from the NGOS to help them do this.”

The charity which has been registered in the U.K. since 2003 and in Korea since 2006 already has many regular international donors, but is far short of its 500 million won fundraising target to get Rhee’s Sariwon project off the ground and running for one year.

The charity is hoping to hold an 80 km bikeathon from Seoul to the DMZ in October and is asking anyone who is interested in taking part and raising sponsorship to get in touch.

“I think there are a lot of foreigners here who want to do something to help North Korea but don’t know what to do. If they come to us with ideas for fund raising we can work with them to get their ideas off the ground,” Vander Schaaf said.

She is looking to create a fundraising team to help the charity meet its goal to eventually open a bakery in every province in North Korea, making sure fewer children there will have to go without lunch each day.

Michael Rank wrote a story about the Love North Korean Children Bakery in Rason.  See it here.

Pictured Above (Google Earth ): The initial phase of the Taedonggang Fruit Farm (대동강과일종합가공공장) in Samsok-guyok, Pyongyang.  See in Google Maps here.

KCNA recently published the following article on the fruit farm (2011-8-12):

The Taedonggang Combined Fruit Farm in Pyongyang attracts admiration from foreign visitors.

After visiting the farm, Martin Lotscher, chairman of the Switzerland-Korea Committee, said the farm is associated with benevolent politics pursued by leader Kim Jong Il and that such an amazing farm can never be found in other countries.

Anders Karlsson, chairman of the Communist Party of Sweden, said the farm offers a glimpse of Kim Jong Il’s strenuous effort for providing the people with a happy life, as well as advantages of the socialist economy.

It is incredible that this large and wonderful fruit farm was built in only three years.

Mamoru Kitahara, chairman of the Fukuoka Prefectural Association for Japan－DPRK Friendship, said he deemed it a great honor to visit the fruit farm at a time when the Korean people were striving hard to build a thriving nation.

He congratulated the Korean people on the tremendous achievements they made under the leadership of Kim Jong Il.

The North Korean media has reported on this farm dozens of times, but it has never mentioned that the apple trees in the Taedonggang Fruit Farm were supplied by a European company.  This same firm may have also supplied apple trees to similar new fruit farms in the DPRK (Kosan and Toksong fruit farms), though I am unsure of their direct involvement beyond the Taedonggang fruit farm.

Some other interesting gossip about the area:

1. The farm is probably the best-defended in the world.  It is surrounded on all sides by dozens of KPA units, HARTs, and anti-aircraft positions.  Looking at the level-1 roads in Pyongyang, it is also likely that Kim Jong-il drives through the farm every time he commutes from downtown Pyongyang to his Kangdong residence.

2. The farm is located just north of Wonhung-ri (원흥리).  There are some villas hidden back in the woods (to the south of the farm) and I believe that Shin Sang-ok and  Choi Eun-hee spent some time here.  If a reader in South Korea could get Ms. Choi to confirm, I would appreciate it!

Pictured Above (Google Earth): WPK Building No. 3 compound (Third Building) mentioned below.  See in Google Maps here.

Andrei Lankov has a great article in the Korea Times on the WPK’s naming conventions. I have attached the article below and supplemented it with related material taken from Helen-Louise Hunter’s Kim Il-Song’s North Korea and the Yonhap North Korea Handbook.

Lankov writes in the Korea Times:

Anybody who has ever dealt with North Korean officials or documents is aware that the nation’s bureaucracy loves number-based names and titles.

To a very large extent this is related to the deeply militaristic nature of the country’s culture. The military usually numbers units and often gives top secret armaments or projects numerical names. In North Korea, the same practice is applied to the society at large. The resulting names sound mysterious and this is probably part of its objective.

More or less every North Korean knows what the term ‘number-one event’ means. This is the name of all events in which the “Dear Leader,” Marshall Kim Jong-il, is expected to participate. When inhabitants of a town see their streets swamped with plain-clothes police, and when they are ordered to paint all fences anew, they understand: A number-one event is expected.

Everything related to the Kim family is “number one.” For example, painters who have a license to depict the members of the Kim family are known as number-one painters (and such a license is not easy to obtain). Predictably, an actor who is playing a member of the ruling family is known as a number-one actor.

Numbers are everywhere. If you need permission to go outside your native city or country, you should apply for a travel permit at Department 2 of the local municipal office. Of late, affluent North Koreans have become annoyed by the activities of Department 27. This department is responsible for the control of privately-owned electronic equipment. Now, as electric equipment is becoming increasingly common in North Korean homes, the officials of Department 27 are expected to conduct random checks of privately-owned computers. They are to ensure that no improper content is kept on hard-drives, and nowadays such visits must be time-consuming and stressful.

At the same time, North Koreans are (or at least used to be) quite happy to be number 65 distribution targets. North Korea, until the early 1990s, was a country of total rationing, where the government decided how much food and basic daily provisions were to be distributed to each citizen, depending on their perceived worth (admittedly food and goods were heavily subsidized and were essentially provided free). This is clearly an egalitarian approach, but, as Orwell once wrote, some are more equal than others. Members of the elite were given better rations and issued goods and services beyond the reach of the common people. They were referred to as number 65 distribution targets.

The place where they were issued special rations of pork and beer (luxuries by North Korean standards) were known as number 65 distribution centers.

Rations are long gone, so access to special distribution quotas is far less important than it was in the 1960s or 1970s. Money talks nowadays, so one should not be surprised that it is extremely prestigious to work for Bureau 38 or Bureau 39, the money-earning branches of the ruling ― and for all practical purposes, only ― party. The task of these bureaus is to earn hard currency which is then used to keep the Kim family and the upper crust of the regime sufficiently comfortable. There are some differences in their functions, but it’s not known exactly how these two agencies differ.

Another part of the central committee bureaucracy is the “Third Building.” This is a common name used to refer to all agencies that deal with South Korea. Actually the name is historic since, once upon a time, all South Korea related agencies and departments were once housed together in a building with the above designation.

Within the Third Building bureaucracy, a special role is played by Bureau 35. The bureau is essentially the intelligence-gathering branch of the ruling Korean Workers Party. Most countries worldwide have two intelligence services, one serving the military and the other gathering political intelligence. On top of that, North Korea also had a party intelligence service.

The initial role of Bureau 35 was to bring about revolution in the South. But with no revolution in sight, it gradually became just another intelligence bureaucracy. Recently North Korea conducted a major reshuffle of its spy agencies, and according to reports, Bureau 35 has had its functions either acquired by another agency or was at least downsized.

It was glamorous to work at Bureau 35 and/or be a number 65 distribution target. It is far less glamorous to be a “target 49.” This is what mentally handicapped people are called in the North. The “49 centers” are the agencies that take care of the needs of people with mental and psychiatric problems.

The list of North Korea’s mysterious numbers has many more interesting entries. Sometimes it seems that numbers are more frequently used there than real names. But what can we expect from a state which unabashedly models itself after the military?

On a related note, Helen-Louise Hunter wrote in Kim Il-song’s North Korea (p. 14–Order at Amazon, Google Books):

The numerical identification of a factory or collective farm is derived from the date of Kim’s first visit . For Example, the 18 September Nursery School in Pyongyang is named for the day when Kim [Il-sung] visited it. Although this name for the most prestigious nursery school in North Korea, which caters to the crème de la crème in Pyongyang, seems unimaginative and unimpressive, it establishes Kim’s personal connection with the school.  In North Korea that is all-important.

Additionally, North Korean organizations are named after important political dates.  According to the Yonhap North Korean Handbook (p.675–Order at Amazon, Google Book):

North Korea had declared the People’s Army Founding on February 8, 1948, and February 8 was commemorated as the People’s Army Fonding Day before 1978.  In February 1978, North Korea changed it to April 25 while arguing that “the People’s Army is the direct heir of Choson People’s Revolutionary Army” and the former president Kim Il-sung had organized Choson People’s Revolutionary Army (anti-Japan guerilla corps) on April 25, 1932.

Perhaps you have heard of the February 8 Vinalon Complex (2.8 Vinalon Complex) or the April 25th House of Culture?

According to Yonhap:

North Korea imported more corn and less rice from China in the first half of this year than in the same period a year ago apparently due to a lack of foreign cash, a study showed Sunday.

North Korea’s grain imports from the neighboring country in the six-month period consisted of 38.2 percent corn, 37.5 percent flour, 16.9 percent rice and 7.2 percent beans, according to an analysis of the two countries’ trade by Kwon Tae-jin, vice president of the Korea Rural Economic Institute.

Last year, the figures stood at 34.2 percent flour, 28.8 percent corn, 19.3 percent rice and 16.4 percent beans, indicating an overall increase in imports of cheaper grains such as corn and flour this year, according to the study based on data from the Korea International Trade Association. Imports of rice and beans, meanwhile, fell from the same period last year.

This year, imports of beans cost $661 per ton on average, while a ton of rice, flour and corn sold for $538, $395 and $304, respectively.

The total amount of grain imports rose 5.5 percent to 149,173 tons, up from 141,395 tons in the first half of last year, apparently reflecting food shortages in the impoverished nation, the study said. Grain imports cost US$404 per ton on average, up 8.6 percent from $372 last year, bringing the total cost to $60.3 million, or 14.4 percent more than last year.

“The amount of grain imports last year was larger than in most years, but the fact that (North Korea) imported even more this year seems to indicate a shortage of food,” Kwon said in his study. “The larger imports of corn than beans or rice appears to be the result of a lack of foreign currency.”

Meanwhile, North Korea also boosted its imports of fertilizers by 91 percent in the first half of this year, buying a total of 190,396 tons compared with 99,588 tons in the same period last year. The country bought more than 164,000 tons of ammonium sulfate, which is sold at $188 per ton, while only importing some 25,000 tons of urea for $346 per ton.

“It seems like either fertilizer production in North Korea has dropped significantly, or they are aiming to boost their food production by a large amount,” Kwon said.

The Daily NK also published a story on these findings.

Read the full story here:
Lack of foreign cash forces N. Korea to buy more corn, less rice
Yonhap
2011-8-14

According to Reuters:

North Korean trade officials visited Myanmar this week to discuss a possible deal to import Burmese rice to ease major food shortages at home, a government official said on Wednesday.

A meeting was held on Tuesday in the country’s biggest city, Yangon, but the terms of the agreement and how North Korea planned to pay for the rice were not known, the official told Reuters, requesting anonymity.

A North Korea-flagged cargo ship named Tumangang has been docked in the port city since Monday. Witnesses and a Reuters photographer said the vessel appeared empty and no cargo was seen being loaded or unloaded.

Myanmar was once the world’s biggest rice exporter and has shipped 450,000 tonnes of the grain so far this year, up from 440,000 tonnes for the whole of 2010. It exported 1.1 million tonnes in 2009, mostly to markets in Africa and the Middle East.

…

The Burmese official said the North Koreans who visited Yangon on Tuesday dealt directly with the military-owned Myanma Economic Holding Ltd (MEHL), one of the country’s biggest firms. MEHL enjoys a monopoly of many of the country’s most lucrative import and export produce.

A senior member of from the Myanmar Chambers of Federation of Commerce and Industry said it was likely North Korea would try to import more than just rice, noting that it previously bought Burmese rubber.

Ties between the two reclusive countries were restored in 2007 after a 24-year freeze that followed the failed assassination attempt by North Korea agents on then South Korean President Chun Doo-hwan during a visit to Myanmar.

The revived ties have worried the United States, which believes Myanmar’s military has sought to develop its own nuclear weapons technology using North Korean expertise.

The DPRK recently engaged Cambodia for a barter food deal.

Here is a compendium of stories related to the DPRK’s alleged food shortage this year.

Read the full story here:
North Korea seeking rice deal with Myanmar
Reuters
Aung Hla Tun
2011-8-10