North Korean Economy Watch

According to Businessweek:

BNP Paribas SA, France’s biggest bank, in 1997 created bonds denominated in Deutsche marks and Swiss francs secured on non-performing loans owed by the Foreign Trade Bank of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea. The notes mature today, and Exotix plans to issue new ones with about a 10-year tenor.

“There are very few investments left in the world like this,” Andrew Chappell, head of London emerging market fixed- income for Exotix, a broker specializing in distressed securities, said in a telephone interview. “The North Korean bonds are very cheap,” they may rise on signs of improved international relations and they are easier to trade than the underlying loans, he said.

President Kim Il Sung drove North Korea to become the first communist nation to default 34 years ago by spending almost a third of gross domestic product on its military. The United Nations toughened sanctions on son Kim Jong Il’s government after it detonated a second nuclear device in May, deepening an economic crisis that forced North Korea to revalue its currency in November by removing two zeros from the face value of the won.
…
“Investors have good reason to hold the notes even by extending them,” said Dong Yong Sueng, a senior fellow in the economic security team at the Samsung Economic Research Institute in Seoul. “They hope that the South Korean government may take over North Korean debts and repay them if the communist state collapses or the regime changes.”

About 320 million marks and 240 million francs ($225 million) of the zero-coupon 1997 bonds are outstanding, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Exotix last quoted them at 12.75 percent of par value as of March 8 from 11.5 percent a month earlier and 33 percent in December 2007.

While prices that low may be attractive to investors willing to take a five- or 10-year bet, “there are just so many better opportunities for investing in high-risk assets,” Richard Segal, director of emerging markets fixed-income at Knight Libertas Ltd., said in a phone interview from London.

“I don’t see much value in the notes even at 10 or 11 percent of par because I see no willingness of North Korea to reschedule the underlying loans and no willingness of South Korea to pay them off short of unification,” he said. That’s “unlikely for a long time.”
…
North Korea is overhauling its legal system in a bid to attract as much as $400 billion in foreign investment over the next decade, almost 20 times current GDP, South Korea’s MBC television reported on March 4.

Read the full story here:
North Korea bonds due today spur exotix bet on political change
Businessweek
Jungmin Hong
3/11/2010

According to the Choson Ilbo:

“Wealthy people in Pyongyang prefer goods to cash as they have lost confidence in the North Korean currency since the reform,” it said. “Demand for South Korean goods, which are considered best quality, has more than doubled.”

The broadcaster quoted a Korean-Chinese trader dealing with the North as saying, “Growing numbers of people want to smuggle South Korean products and sell them in the North despite a crackdown by North Korean customs.” It said the widespread perception among North Koreans is that South Korean goods are of much better quality than Japanese or Chinese products.

Sinuiju Customs Office lets small quantities of South Korean goods that do not seem to be for sale pass through on condition that they do not carry “Made in Korea” labels, but is strict about seizing larger quantities.

Favorite products include luxury goods like necklaces and earrings, electronic home appliances such as TV sets, DVD players, digital cameras, and notebook computers, toiletries, air fresheners, and clothing.   

Pyongyang is believed to be home to an estimated 1,000 dollar millionaires, the radio station said. 

I am a bit skeptical about this story.  Given the DPRK’s monetary history, I understand the need of North Koreans to “get out of cash,” but the number of individuals hoarding South Korean goods has to be small.  Jewelry aside, manufactured goods are not a reliable store of value.  They are hard to hide, difficult to transport, they break down, and require electricity.  As for televisions, South Korean TVs operate on NTSC (like the US) and North Korea uses PAL (presumably the “South Korean” TVs are made for the Chinese market and operate on PAL–thanks Gag).  

Why not stick with Yuan?

Also, Japanese goods have been considered the paragon of quality in the DPRK for decades.  Is it realistic to assume that attitudes towards South Korean goods have changed so much so quickly? 

UPDATE: A strong counterpoint to my intuition comes from Dr. Lankov.  He notes:

Well, in the USSR of my youth many people did just that. They hoarded industrial goods, in spite of all above mentioned shortcomings. TV sets, VCRs, furniture, glassware, even books. There was a major difference, though: in the the USSR it was strictly illegal and, indeed, risky, to be possession of foreign currency.

Also see this IFES report. 

Read the full story here:
Wealthy N.Koreans Hoard S.Korean Goods
Choson Ilbo
3/11/2010

According to the AFP:

Sanctions-hit North Korea on Wednesday formally launched a development bank aimed at attracting foreign funds to revive its economy, state media reported.

Directors of the State Development Bank held their first meeting to elect officers and decide on a management structure and annual budget, the Korean Central News Agency said.

The bank, set up on the orders of leader Kim Jong-Il, will have “advanced banking rules and system for transactions with international monetary organisations and commercial banks,” the agency said.

It would invest in major projects and act as a commercial bank.

The bank is the latest move by the North to revive its ailing economy and rebuild crumbling infrastructure. In January it upgraded the status of Rason, a free trade zone near the border with China and Russia, to boost foreign trade.

…

Analysts have said the decision to found the development bank shows leader Kim is confident the six-party talks will eventually produce a settlement.

The board is made up of members of the National Defence Commission (NDC), the nation’s top ruling body; the Korea Asia-Pacific Peace Committee, a state agency in charge of exchanges with South Korea; the finance ministry; the Korea Taepung International Investment Group and two independent directors.

NDC representative Jon Il-Chun was elected director-general and Pak Chol-Su, described as a Korean resident in China, as his deputy.

Previous State Development Bank posts here.

The KCNA story is here.

North Korean leadership Watch has more, including a picture of Jon Il-chun.

Read the full story here:
N.Korea launches bank to woo foreign capital
AFP
3/17/2010

Ruediger Frank, “Money in Socialist Economies: The Case of North Korea,” The Asia Pacific Journal, 8-2-10, February 22, 2010.

Introduction
Dated January 29, 2010, the Foreign Trade Bank of the DPRK (North Korea) issued document No. DC033 10-004 to diplomatic missions and international organizations present in North Korea. They were informed that the use of foreign currency was to be stopped, payments were to be made in the form of non-cash cheques, and that the official exchange rate of the Euro to the North Korean Won was changed from 188.2 KPW to 140 KPW, effective January 2, 2010.

Foreign institutions and organizations now have to obtain non-cash cheques from the Foreign Trade Bank, denominated in KPW, in order to pay for accommodations, meals and service fees in hotels, fares for transport services like railways and airlines, communication charges, inspection fees, registration fees and commissions paid to institutions and enterprises in the DPRK, fuel, office materials, spare parts for vehicles, electricity, water, heating charges and rent. Bank transfers are now mandatory for any transfers between international organizations and all money paid to institutions and organizations of the DPRK (including the salary of DPRK citizens working in embassies or international organizations).

A recent visitor to Pyongyang confirmed in a talk with the author that individuals are subject to a cumbersome process if they wish to purchase anything. Rather than using a standard hard currency or exchanging it into the new Won, they now have to obtain a receipt stating the price of the good they want to buy, then present this at a desk where they exchange their money into exactly the needed amount of North Korean money, and finally return to the shop assistant, hand over the exact amount, and receive the product.

In the preceding weeks, North Korea had made international headlines related to what seems to be a concerted economic policy initiative. The domestic currency was reformed in a way that obviously aimed at reducing the amount of money in circulation (link). A few weeks later news emerged that the use of foreign currencies was banned (link).

This is no doubt a dramatic move with far-reaching consequences. Money matters for personal lives and for society, so when a country initiates a currency reform, it has significant repercussions.

But what are these consequences for the specific case of North Korea in early 2010? Are people in various sectors of society better off now, or worse? Will the economy benefit or suffer? Do the reforms promote or impede foreign trade and investment? Will the domestic political situation become more stable, or will it deteriorate? Are the economic reforms of 2002 reversed, or were they intended to be a temporary measure from the outset? Should we even interpret the currency reforms as part of the process of power succession?

(more…)

Daily NK
Jung Kwon Ho
2/22/2010

In late January, Kim Jong Il held a meeting of his highest officials, including Jang Sung Taek, Director of the Ministry of Administration of the Party, aiming to find ways to alleviate the negative side effects of November’s currency redenomination. In the meeting, the group apparently agreed to release emergency supplies of rice to those on the brink of starvation.

According to a Daily NK source, “Following the meeting, which he chaired, Kim Jong Il handed down a handwritten decree to the chief secretaries of all provinces on January 20 in which it was stated, ‘Preventing anyone from starving to death is your obligation.’”

Chief Secretaries of Provincial Committees of the Party, the recipients of the decree, handed on the threat to their subordinates, warning provincial cadres, “You will resign if anyone starves to death, because this was a direct instruction from the General.”

In the decree, the three most vulnerable provinces were named as Yangkang, South Hamkyung, and Kangwon Provinces, so the officials governing those provinces are understandably nervous. They are the provinces where most casualties occurred during the March of Tribulation, and they remain the most food insecure.

Under the decree, the Ministry of Procurement and Food Policy makes daily deliveries of 5kg of relief rice to each people’s unit and 5-15kg to each factory and enterprise. Chairpersons of people’s units and managers of factories are required to observe the circumstances of the people under their control and provide those in the greatest danger of starvation with relief rice first.

In late January, quite a number of households were reportedly facing starvation due to the aftermath of the currency redenomination; notably sky high prices coupled to strict market regulations. However, there have been no reports of starvation since relief rice deliveries began on February 1.

Alongside the chairpersons of People’s Units, cadres working for local government offices are required to cross-check whether or not starvation is occurring. In theory, they are reprimanded if they do not report the situation truthfully.

Upon hearing the news, a defector in Seoul commented, “It seems that the people will not lie still and suffer that dire situation. Kim Jong Il may have done this because he senses a crisis situation this time.”

According to the Chosun Ilbo:

A North Korean source has shed more light on an apology by Premier Kim Yong-il on Feb. 5 which apparently acknowledged that the currency reform in late December went disastrously wrong.

The source said Kim, not to be confused with leader Kim Jong-il, read out an hour-long statement before village chiefs and other party officials at the People’s Palace of Culture in Pyongyang on Monday morning. “I sincerely apologize for having caused great pain to the people by recklessly enforcing the latest currency reform without making sufficient preparations or considering the circumstances,” the source quoted him as saying.

Kim also pledged to rectify the mistakes, saying he would do “my best” to stabilize people’s financial circumstances. The revaluation of the won, instead of curbing inflation, led to skyrocketing prices of daily necessities.

He indicated that the regime will allow people to use foreign currency, which has been banned since the reform, and permit open-air markets to return to normal after a crackdown that seemed aimed at strangling a nascent market economy.

But Kim at the same time stressed the need to stick to state-set prices, adding that the government will strictly crack down on the hoarding of goods.

Some experts say the situation in the North has returned to almost the state before the currency reform. A South Korean official said North Korean authorities loosened their control of the markets since there has been unprecedented resistance from ordinary people. This seems to have forced Kim’s hand.

After Kim’s apology, most money changers and illegal traders who had been arrested were reportedly freed. The number of people leaving for China has grown noticeably as offices of state agencies or state-run corporations involved in earning dollars, which suspended business due to the ban on use of foreign currency, have resumed business.

The apology apparently quenched a lot of the simmering public anger.

“Premier Kim Yong-il’s direct apology to village chiefs, who are representatives of the people of each region, is tantamount to an apology to the people themselves. It’s a big event in the history of North Korea,” a former senior North Korean official who defected to the South said. “Authorities have never apologized to the people for wrong policies before.”

He believes the apology came “because discontent with the currency reform had spread widely even among core supporters of the regime,” he added.

Residents in Hwanghae Province are in some cases said to have beaten security officers who were cracking down on the use of dollars.

Since the climbdown, there have reportedly been calls to return the money the authorities confiscated. The won was revalued at a rate of 100:1, but the new won immediately plummeted in value, and those who saw their savings disappear into thin air have been demanding compensation.

The source said the apology may encourage North Koreans to become more assertive in the future.

The AP (Via Washington Post) adds:

South Korea’s National Intelligence Service and the Unification Ministry said they couldn’t confirm the Chosun Ilbo report. But Unification Ministry spokeswoman Lee Jong-joo said it would be “very rare” for a top North Korean official to issue a public apology.

Kim is believed to be the North’s No. 3 man in the country’s power hierarchy after autocratic leader Kim Jong Il and Kim Yong Nam, president of the Presidium of the Supreme People’s Assembly, according to South Korean media reports.

Last week, South Korean media reported that leader Kim Jong Il sacked a senior communist party official who spearheaded the currency reform, following arguments within the country’s elite over who should take responsibility for the fiasco.

Wow.

UPDATE: Good Friends reports that DPRK authorities are repealing market regulations.  According to the AFP:

Communist North Korea has allowed private markets to reopen nationwide after a bungled currency revaluation worsened food shortages and fuelled anger at the regime, a Seoul welfare group said Thursday.

“All the markets across the country should be reopened — without exceptions — as before,” Good Friends said in a newsletter, citing what it said was a special order from the central committee of the ruling Workers’ Party.

It said security organisations across the nation were also ordered to launch “absolutely no crackdowns on trading in food” at the markets.

…

The official policy turnaround came last week, “based on assessments that the currency reform has caused enormous pain to people by paralysing distribution networks”, group director Lee Seung-Yong told AFP.

“I believe North Korea will not clamp down on market activities for a considerable period, or at least until its state distribution system is back to normal.”

The South’s unification ministry, which handles cross-border relations, could not confirm the welfare group’s report.

“We’ve heard the North gradually easing curbs on the markets but it is difficult to verify the full-scale reopening,” said spokeswoman Lee Jong-Joo.

…

Good Friends said this week that about 2,000 people had starved to death across the nation this winter.

Read the full article here:
N.Korea eases curbs on markets nationwide: group
AFP
Jun Kwanwoo
2/18/2010

The Daily NK did a series of articles on the General Association of Korean Residents in Japan (Chongryon or Chosen Soren).  Below are links to all seven parts:

Part 1: Chongryon feels the pinch

Part 2: Debts, Mergers, Collapses and Foreclosures

Part 3: Homecoming Project Speeds Chongryon Demise

Part 4: South Korea Visits Weakened Chongryon

Part 5: Chongryon Remittances and Investments

Part 6: “Study Group,” the Core of Chongryon

Part 7: Study Group Money Laundering Machine

According to the Guardian:

It is the nerve centre of North Korea’s money-making operations, the department dedicated to raising hard currency for Kim Jong-il while his country teeters on the brink of collapse.

Room 39 is responsible for some legal ventures, such as the country’s limited exports of ginseng and other items. But according to defectors, most of its energy goes into drug-trafficking, sales of weapons and missile technology, and the production of counterfeit US dollar bills.

Today, it was reported the department’s head – Kim Jong-il’s personal finance manager – has been sacked, possibly in response to international action against the alleged illegal moneymaking. South Korea’s Yonhap news agency said Kim Dong-un was dismissed because he had been blacklisted by so many foreign governments, including the EU in December, leaving him unable to travel on behalf of Room 39’s legal companies. He has been replaced by his deputy, Jon Il-chun, Yonhap said, citing an unidentified source.

Housed in an unremarkable government compound in Pyongyang, Room 39 oversees 120 companies and mines, accounting for a quarter of all North Korean trade and employing 50,000 people, according to Lim Soo-ho, a research fellow at the Samsung Economic Research Institute. He said Kim’s dismissal may be part of attempts to get around international sanctions.

While its inner workings remain a mystery to all but its occupants and the family they serve, Room 39’s role in enabling the regime to survive even in times of widespread famine and international pressure, has come under greater scrutiny since the imposition last year of tough UN sanctions over its nuclear programme.

…

Some of the money generated by Room 39 is used to buy the loyalty of senior party officials, a role that may take on greater prominence as Kim Jong-il, who suffered a stroke in 2008, prepares to hand over power to his third son, Kim Jong-un. Analysts have estimated that illegal activities account for up to 40% of all North Korean trade and an even higher share of total cash earnings.

Additional information: 

1. More on the EU travel ban is here.

2. Office 39 is reportedly located here.  Kim Jong Il’s office is reportedly nearby here.

3. This week the KWP’s finance director, Pak Nam-gi, was also let go.

4. Mike Madden notes the new director’s  appearance with KJI at an “On the Spot Guidance” visit this week.  Mike also points to a possible appearance the Korea Taepung International Investment Group meeting.

According to the Choson Ilbo:

The North Korean regime apparently sacked the Workers’ Party’s Finance Director Pak Nam-gi, letting him take the fall for the failed currency reform late last year. Pak was appointed finance director in July 2007 to oversee North Korea’s economic policies and has spent the past few years trying to root out a nascent market economy.

“Right now, North Korean officials are busy blaming each other for the failed currency reform and Pak, who spearheaded the revaluation, is believed to have been sacked,” said a diplomatic source in Beijing. “Markets have come to a grinding halt following the currency revaluation and prices have soared,” the source said. It seems North Korea hoped to stabilize prices through the currency reform and then credit the achievement to Kim Jong-il’s third son and heir apparent Jong-un to consolidate his grip on power, but this flopped, the source added.

Some North Korea watchers in China predict that the regime may perform a U-turn back to timid market reforms now that Pak, who led the crusade against capitalism, has been fired. One North Korea expert in Beijing said, “There is a strong possibility that high-ranking North Korean officials who led the drive to crush market forces since 2004 will be removed from office, while policies will shift toward market reforms starting in the second half of this year.”

Meanwhile, the new North Korean won is still plummeting against the U.S. dollar. North Korea valued the new currency to 98 won per dollar after the old won weakened to 3,500. But the new won has plunged since last month and is now being traded at between 300 and 500 won per dollar, according to people who trade goods with North Koreans.

According to the Daily NK:

In the tradition of dictatorial regimes worldwide, scapegoats have apparently also been chosen. South Korea’s Chosun Ilbo today claimed that Park Nam Ki, Director of the Planning and Financial Department of the Central Committee, has taken responsibility for the failed redenomination, which initiated a period of hyper-inflation, and been dismissed.

According to the report, Park was appointed to the top economic position in the North Korean government in July, 2005, where he began to pull up the green shoots of spontaneous market economy.

If the news is confirmed, Park will be following in the undesirable footsteps of Ministry of Agriculture head Seo Gwan Hee and Premier Park Bong Ju.

Seo was executed for his role in the 1990s famine. According to defector testimony, Kim Jong Il shifted responsibility for the famine onto him and had him publicly executed in 1997.

Meanwhile, Park Bong Ju became the Premier of the North Korean Cabinet in 2003, the year after the adoption of the July 1st Economic Management Reform Measure, and was responsible for introducing revised market economic elements according to the July 1st Measure. However, results were not sufficient and he was sent to manage the Suncheon Vinylon Complex in South Pyongan Province. 

Lets hope that the jangmadang come back with a vengeance. 

Read the full articles here:
N.Korean Finance Chief Sacked Over Currency Debacle
Choson Ilbo
2/3/2010

Read the full story here:
Ban on Markets lifted
Daily NK
Jung Kwon Ho
2/3/2010

Daily NK
Park Sung Kook
2/2/2010

There has been an explosion in the number of casualties resulting from popular resentment at harsh regulation of market activities by the security apparatus across North Korea, according to various Daily NK sources.

For instance, in Pyongsung, North Pyongan Province, normally one of the key distribution centers in North Korea, there have been several incidents of agents from the People’s Safety Agency (PSA), the organization charged with cracking down on the smuggling of food and other officially “immoral” acts, being attacked by unidentified assailants.

A Daily NK source reported on Monday, “A group of agents who had just finished doing the rounds of the jangmadang and alley markets in Naengcheon-dong, Haksu-dong, and Cheongok-ri in Pyongsung were attacked by a number of people, who assaulted them and immediately ran away. As a result, PSA officials are feeling very tense these days.”

Commenting privately on these incidents, some people savor them as acts of revenge, but others are worried about the situation, according to The Daily NK’s sources.

There have been more examples unearthed in recent days, too. For instance, North Korea Intellectuals Solidarity (NKIS), a Seoul-based defector group, recently received news that “a fight broke out between agents of the PSA, who monitor the Hyesan jangmadang, and some residents. As the fight turned serious, one resident snatched an agent’s gun and fired randomly into the crowd. One agent, Choe, is in a critical condition.”

According to NKIS, the fight began after the PSA agents beat up a trader who was trying to avoid the crackdown, and that made other residents angry, so they attacked the agents in return. As the fight grew more serious, agents threatened residents, but this only added fuel to the flames.

Finally, a Daily NK source from North Hamkyung Province released one other incident: Cho, who used to work for the Prosecutions Department of the National Security Agency in the region, was apparently killed by a Chongjin Steel Mill worker called Jeung Hyun Deuk.

The source explained, “Jeung’s father, the chief of a foreign currency-generating company, was interrogated last July on suspicion of embezzling enormous amounts of property and foreign currency, and in January was sentenced to life in prison. However, a few days after being imprisoned, he died. Thereafter, Jeung held a grudge against his father’s interrogator, Cho, and eventually killed him.”

The source concluded, “Traders and residents have lost their property due to the redenomination and are pretty much being treated as criminals as a result of the NSA and PSA’s ‘50-Day Battle.’ Therefore, people are taking revenge on agents, since they feel so desperate that, regardless of their actions, they will die. As a result, social unrest is becoming more serious.”

On January 2, the National Defense Commission released an order entitled “On completely sweeping away hostile factions who attempt to demolish our Republic from the inside,” initiating the “50-Day Battle” crackdown by the PSA and NSA in every city, county, and province which was referred to by the North Hamkyung Province source.