North Korean Economy Watch

Peterson Institute Working Paper (Sept 2009)
Stephan Haggard and Marcus Noland

(Download PDF here)

Abstract: The state is often conceptualized as playing an enabling role in a country’s economic development—providing public goods, such as the legal protection of property rights, while the political economy of reform is conceived in terms of bargaining over policy among elites or special interest groups. We document a case that turns this perspective on its head: efficiency-enhancing institutional and behavioral changes arising not out of a conscious, top-down program of reform, but rather as unintended (and in some respects, unwanted) by-products of state failure. Responses from a survey of North Korean refugees demonstrate that the North Korean economy marketized in response to state failure with the onset of famine in the 1990s, and subsequent reforms and retrenchments appear to have had remarkably little impact on some significant share of the population. There is strong evidence of powerful social changes, including increasing inequality, corruption, and changed attitudes about the most effective pathways to higher social status and income. These assessments appear to be remarkably uniform across demographic groups. While the survey sample marginally overweights demographic groups with less favorable assessments of the regime, even counterfactually recalibrating the sample to match the underlying resident population suggests widespread dissatisfaction with the North Korean regime.

JEL Codes: P2, P3, F22
Keywords: failed states, transition, reform, North Korea, refugees

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
(NK Brief No. 09-18-1)
9/18/2009

(Here is the location of the Pyongsong Market)

The Network for North Korean Democracy and Human Rights (Nknet) reported that previous wholesale market near in Pyongsong Plaza and the provincial committee building has completely closed its doors in mid-Jun. Currently, there are two markets being operated in a reduced form in two separate districts.

The newly formed jangmadang in two districts are extension of previous alley markets and it is reported to be under construction but still operating. The size of the new market is said to encompass between seven to eight thousand seats compared to thirty to forty thousand seats of the former Pyongsong Wholesale Market.

The reported reason behind the closure of the wholesale market was, “triggered by the North Hwanghae Provincial Secretary’s proposal to close down Pyongsong jangmadang. He stated that ‘there is no use for such market although it is the most profitable market in North Korea. Since the profits are embezzled by individuals and not utilized towards the beautification of the city, it serves no benefit to society.’”

A large number of merchants from the previous Pyongsong Wholesale Market are reported to be secretly selling their goods from the market at home. Complaints are arising over the surveillance and inspection from the police in which once detected, all the items are confiscated with no compensation.

There are continuous rumors circulating surrounding the conversion into agricultural market except for two markets in Haesan. However, there are no concrete changes and only talks of starting a possible transition to agricultural market from next year. Also food distribution is rumored to start from next year along with the conversion into agricultural market.

Although some believe the food distribution is a result from the consideration from Kim Jong Il, such rumors are regarded to have no real effect on the residents of jangmadang. It is also reported many people have no faith that conversion into agricultural market will actually go into effect and believe it is only reemphasizing the previous dead letter measure of allowing only those older than 45 years old to participate in the market activity.

Andrei Lankov
Asia Policy 8, July 2009
The National Bureau of Asian Research

Download the article (PDF) here. 

Executive Summary
This article explains why the North Korean government has attempted to reassert state control over society—which had been eroding from 1994–2002—and offers predictions regarding the impact that this shift will likely have on North Korean society.

Main Argument
From 1994 to 2002 North Korean society changed tremendously: state-run industry collapsed, the rationing system ceased to function, and free-market activity, though still technically illegal or semi-legal, became most citizen’s major source of income. Although not initiated by the government, in 2002 some of these spontaneous changes won the belated and conditional approval of the regime.

The evidence emerging in the last three to four years demonstrates, however, that the North Korean government has chosen not to tolerate those changes. This policy of recrudescence, while economically self-destructive, makes political sense because the existence of an affluent and free South Korea makes North Korea far more insecure. The leadership in Pyongyang has reason to believe that any domestic liberal reform in North Korea would lead to a regime collapse.

Policy Implications
1. Pyongyang’s decision to reject reformist policies is based on a rational and well-informed assessment of North Korea’s domestic and international situation. Therefore, the outside world can do very little to influence the regime’s position, and thus there is no chance of meaningful reform in North Korea in the foreseeable future as long as the current regime remains in power.

2. Because the current policy makes sustainable economic growth impossible, the North Korean government will need to rely on stratagems to secure vital foreign aid, with the U.S. being one of the main (but not only) targets of these maneuvers. The “North Korean problem” will remain a part of the international landscape in the foreseeable future.

3. If the current attempt by the government at counter-reform fails, this failure will create additional avenues for influencing the North Korean government from within.

Download the article (PDF) here. 

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
NK Brief No. 09-7-8-1
7/8/2009

North Korea’s main wholesale market, in Pyongysong, was temporarily closed for just over a week during mid-April, but it has reportedly been open and operating normally since then. It was rumored, and reported [previously (see below)], that the Pyongysong Wholesale Market was shut down in mid-June. There was a report that officials felt the market had grown too large, and there was a plan to divide it into East and West Markets. However, reports of these plans have now been deemed nothing more than rumor.

A source in Kangdong-gun stated that there has been much talk of closing markets since the beginning of the year, but that no measures have been enforced and everything is operating normally. Another source reported that many traders are traveling to and from Sinuiju and Pyongysong, and that their numbers have been growing since the onset of summer. While rumors still abound regarding market closures, the source noted that there is significantly less talk of such measures compared to earlier in the year.

In January, North Korean authorities released a statement indicating that general markets would be transformed into farmers’ markets, and only open once every ten days. However, six months has already passed, and there has been no action taken. There have been no measures to transform even some of the largest markets, in Hyeryong, Hyesan, Musan and Sinuiju. That said, it is always possible that the North Korean authorities proceed with plans to close or transform the markets.

The majority of North Koreans trading in the markets do not believe the authorities could easily carry out market-closing measures. Due to the likelihood of large-scale civil revolts, the regime must come up with an alternative to the markets if it intends to close or transform them. The current food issues faced by the North make it impossible to close markets. In addition, transforming general markets into farmers’ markets would force residents to buy daily necessities and other manufactured products at department stores or government-run shops, but these shops have nothing in stock. Furthermore, preventing residents from selling in the markets makes it more difficult for them to acquire the food necessary to sustain themselves and their families. The number of empty stalls in markets appears to be slowing increasing, but a complete shutdown of the market would likely lead to protests.

Original Post:
North Korea begins closing general markets
Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
NK Brief No. 09-6-26-1
6/26/2009

It has been reported that North Korea’s market closing measure is slowly beginning to be enforced. The June 23 27* issue of North Korea Today, a newsletter from the South Korean group Good Friends, announced that the Pyongsong general market has now been shut down, in what some call the most prominent omen that all general markets will be shut down throughout the country. As the Pyongsong general market served as the central wholesale market for the entire North, some believe it was shut down first in order to encourage the use of smaller, more local traditional markets. In addition, central Party authorities have ordered department stores and general stores in Pyongyang to stock up on Chinese goods. The North Korean government has announced, on a number of occasions since last year, that general markets would be closed and turned into farmers’ markets, but for a variety of reasons, the measure has been on hold for over six months.

Regional authorities were also ordered to import various goods from China, in accordance with the demands of local citizens and regional conditions, in order to head off any concerns that daily necessities might not be available after the markets are closed. This series of measures indicates that the government is concerned that attempts to forcefully close the markets may lead to citizen revolts, as clashes between traders and police occurred previously when the North attempted to enforce market restrictions.

One official in Pyongyang stated that this measure put citizen’s concerns and inconveniences first, stating, “[The Party] must unconditionally get rid of markets. But on the inside, they see that there will be huge opposition from the citizens if they only use force, so this time they decided to combine it with conciliatory policies.” The source added, however, that authorities plan to continue to operate restricted markets while at the same time, completely changing the market system before the end of this year.

Currently, as the 150-day ‘battle’ campaign to improve the economy is underway, more and more lectures are also being given. One week after the North’s second nuclear test, propaganda speeches were given in each factory and business in Pyongsong, South Pyongan Province, stating, “Now there is no one in the world that can face off with our military might,” and, “If the United States and those countries that kowtow to it carry out an economic blockade against our country, we will see it as an act of war and stand against it with military power. If only we carry out the 150-day battle well this year, we will completely attain a Strong and Prosperous Nation. [All the people] must follow after the revolutionary military spirit of the People’s Army and open the door to a strong and prosperous nation without one day’s delay.”

UPDATE: According to the Daily NK, the closing of the Pyongsong Market was not successful:

Despite North Korean official attempts to shift general markets onto an agricultural format, the general markets are operating as normal because of popular resistance to change.

A source residing in Kangdong-gun, Pyongyang told Daily NK, “In mid-April, a wholesale market in Pyongsung was shut down for around ten days, but after that it reopened and continues to operate.” He added that, “I’ve heard that the existing market was supposed to close early this year and be changed into an agricultural market, but there have actually been no shutdowns at all.”

He continued, “I don’t know the exact reason for the closure of Pyongsung market in April, but I’ve heard that there was an investigation of the individuals who manage the big wholesale businesses there. Traders strongly opposed it, so the closure of the market could not be completed.”

The source added, “In Kangdong-gun and other districts of Pyongyang, there have been many rumors about market closures, but there have not been any so far. Markets are operating normally.”

A source from Shinuiju confirmed it. “Many rumors of market closure have circulated, but they are working as usual,” the source said, “Markets in Pyongsung are operating as well, so there are still many traders coming and going between Shinuiju and Pyongsung. Especially, as summer approaches, trade is increasing.”

He added, “People still talk about the closure of the markets, but they don’t talk about it as much as earlier this year. In truth, if the jangmadang is closed, it will be hard for even the cadres to live, let alone ordinary residents. So cadres also have a negative opinion of the measure, and for that reason it will be difficult to shift to agricultural markets.” 

Read the full story here:
Markets Continue Despite Official Bluster
Daily NK
Lee Sung Jin
7/3/2009

Barbara Demick has an informative article in the Los Angeles Times.  The whole piece is worth reading but here are some themes and excerpts.

Market restictions ordered

In the markets of Kilju, a city of 100,000 near North Korea’s eastern seacoast, the ruling Korean Workers’ Party has ordered the removal of Chinese-made cookies, candies and pharmaceuticals.

Even soybeans, many articles of clothing and shoes are now forbidden.

It is all part of a great leap backward taking place in the secretive autocracy. North Koreans interviewed in China in recent weeks say that the regime of Kim Jong Il has made a concerted effort to roll back reforms that had over the last decade liberalized the most strictly controlled economy in the world.

… 

So many Chinese goods are now taboo that markets stock only about 35% of the merchandise previously available, some say.

Import substiution policy implemented?

“They want to promote our own products made in North Korea, but since everything is ‘made in China,’ there is nothing to buy,” said Kim Young Chul, a civilian working for the North Korean military who had come to China to sell wild ginseng on behalf of his employer.

Exports curtailed

Kim Chol Hee, a trader from Yanji, a Chinese city near the border with a large ethnic Korean population, said it was harder now than at any time in the 10 years he’s been in business to import from North Korea.

“I used to bring in squid, crab, steel parts from Chongjin. We can still buy seafood, but the North Korean government won’t let us buy steel,” he said Kim. “They say they need to keep all their resources for themselves.”

Restrctions inefective

Kilju residents have not dared to hold public protests against the restriction. But the Korean Workers Party nonetheless might be fighting a losing battle. Much of the trading is done by people with powerful connections in the provincial government and the military. Many state-owned enterprises do illegal trading to raise cash for their operations.

For example, trader Kim Young Chul says he is responsible for raising about $900 each year for his work unit by selling ginseng, while he and his partners keep any additional profits.

“I have a lot of freedom. They don’t dare ask me too many questions in North Korea, because I work for the ministry,” said Kim.

Just as quickly as the Korean Workers’ Party issues a decree, people find a way to circumvent it. Vendors banned from the market bring out their mothers and grandmothers, while secretly running the businesses from behind the scenes. Others sell banned good from their homes, or simply stash it behind other merchandise.

“If you want to buy cosmetics in Kilju, you still can find them, but they are usually hidden underneath the table,” Lee said.

Once a loyal member of the Workers’ Party, Lee said she had remained devoted to Kim Jong Il up to her departure from North Korea in May, vowing that she would return home as soon as she got money for her family.

“Even the day I left, I was singing songs about Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il in my house,” said Lee. “Now that I’ve come to China, I’m not so sure.

Read the full article here:
North Korea moves to restrict economy
Los Angeles Times
Barbara Demick
7/5/2009

According to Reuters:

Countries appear even less willing to give following North Korea’s second nuclear test in May, Torben Due, the U.N. World Food Programme representative in North Korea, told a news conference in Beijing.

“It’s a very sensitive area. I understand to a certain extent why donors are questioning,” he said. “But my angle is as a humanitarian. Being a humanitarian organisation you should look at the needs of the people. WFP does not engage in the political part of it.”

Due said no new donations had been received following that second test.

An appeal for more than $500 million in food aid has been just 15 percent met, meaning a planned relief operation to reach 6.2 million people has been scaled back to target 2 million.

Due, who lives in Pyongyang and was passing through the Chinese capital, told of the human toll of the state’s struggling economy and international seclusion, with mothers and children stunted by starvation.

“We are now in the middle of the lean season in North Korea, where food supplies are low and it’s a very difficult situation for many people in the country,” he said.

“But more importantly it should be noted that we have a situation where a very large part of the population has been undernourished for 15 or 20 years.”

In some parts of North Korea, some women weigh just 45 kg (99 lb) when they give birth, he added, citing a medical survey.

“The children that survive these conditions will be born with compromised immune systems … and that will contribute to their stunting,” Due said. “It’s a problem which goes from one generation to the next.”

Given the DPRK’s prerogatives, however, the US is not inclined to send food aid.  According to the Associated Press:

The United States said Wednesday it is “very concerned” about the North Korean people but cannot send needed food aid without assurances from their Stalinist government that it will reach them.

“We currently have no plans to provide additional food aid to North Korea and any additional food would have to have assurances that it would be appropriately used,” Kelly told reporters.

“We remain very concerned about the well-being of the North Korean people,” the spokesman said.

“But we are very concerned because we need to have an adequate program management in place, monitoring and access provisions and we don’t have that right now,” he added.

He recalled that in March North Korea expelled non-governmental organization (NGO) monitors in line with its decision to reject US food aid.

“At that time we had about 22,000 metric tonnes in storage there. We’ve learned that the DPRK (North Korean) has distributed this food,” Kelly said. 

I have not seen any food prices from North Korean markets in a while.  If anyone has come across any, please send them to me. 

Recent defectors offer a more nuanced account:

The food supply in the North may have improved slightly in the past two years due to better weather, but Jo said food still is hard to come by. “Even last year, we had a campaign in Kangwon province of getting by with two meals a day. Soldiers sometimes would just get three potatoes a day.”

There is a thriving market economy in North Korea at the local level where the average person buys food staples and consumer goods often made in China. Private plots of land are increasingly used for providing food for one’s family, said Cho Myungchul, a researcher who was an economist in the North before defecting to the South 15 years ago. (Reuters)

Read more here:
U.N. says North Korea food aid has dried up
Reuters
Ben Blanchard
7/1/2009

US cannot send food aid to NKorea despites its concerns
AFP
6/1/2009

Life in North Korea: lies, potatoes and cable TV
Reuters
Jack Kim
7/1/2009

North Korea Uncovered version 18 is available.  This Google Earth overlay maps North Korea’s agriculture, aviation, cultural locations, markets, manufacturing facilities, railroad, energy infrastructure, politics, sports venues, military establishments, religious facilities, leisure destinations, and national parks.

This project has now been downloaded over 140,000 times since launching in April 2007 and received much media attention last month following a Wall Street Journal article highlighting the work.

Note: Kimchaek City is now in high resolution for the first time.  Information on this city is pretty scarce.  Contributions welcome.

Additions to this version include: New image overlays in Nampo (infrastructure update), Haeju (infrastructure update, apricot trees), Kanggye (infrastructure update, wood processing factory), Kimchaek (infrastructure update). Also, river dredges (h/t Christopher Del Riesgo), the Handure Plain, Musudan update, Nuclear Test Site revamp (h/t Ogle Earth), The International School of Berne (Kim Jong un school), Ongjin Shallow Sea Farms, Monument to  “Horizon of the Handure Plain”, Unhung Youth Power Station, Hwangnyong Fortress Wall, Kim Ung so House, Tomb of Kim Ung so, Chungnyol Shrine, Onchon Public Library, Onchon Public bathhouse, Anbyon Youth Power Stations.

Google Earth has recently updated the imagery of the DPRK’s southern city of Haeju.  Here are some of the new attractions (click images for larger version):

Mass rally:
In front of Haeju’s Kim il Sung statue

Market update:
The street market near Haeju’s stadium has been closed

However, a new market opened up in the south of the city:

In fact, they seem to have constructed a new market district in the city:

New factory:
Located in the Haeju’s north west. I am unsure what they manufacture:

Using Google Earth’s feature which allows users to view the same location at different points in time, we can see that Pyongyang has experienced quite a construction boom in the 21st century, particularly in the southern Rakrang District.  Below I have posted some of the more interesting discoveries (dates are in the upper right corner of the images). 

Tudan Duck Farm (Pyongyang)
  

Rakrang District
  

Tongil Market (Rakrang)
  

Russian Orthodox Church (Rakrang)
  

Kaesong Industrial Zone
 

Sinuiju market growth
 

Many have speculated that the construction boom is related to the DPRK’s plan to achieve a “strong and prosperous state” (Kangsong Taeguk) by 2012—the 100th birthday of the country’s eternal president, Kim il Sung.

UPDATE: Jon Herskovitz writes in Reuters that all this construction is actually making pepole worse off.  According to the article:

The programme to forge a “great and prosperous nation” by 2012 was a central part of the mandate for Kim Jong-il, son of the founding president, when parliament extended his official leadership in March for five years.

The goals for the broken economy are lofty. The North wants to revamp its railways, coal mines, steelworks and electrical supply, end hunger and strengthen its already large military.

“The Korean people will strikingly demonstrate their heroic stamina as socialist workers … and thus fling open the gate to a thriving nation in 2012,” North Korean state media said in a report to mark May Day.

Foreign residents in Pyongyang say streets are being spruced up and buildings refurbished to mark the 100th birthday of Kim Il-sung, who died in 1994 but is still considered president for eternity of Asia’s only communist dynasty.

“The 2012 project fits into these themes: glorification of the past, and if past history is any guide, the wasting of huge sums on useless monumental edifices,” Marcus Noland, an expert on the North’s economy with the U.S.-based Peterson Institute for International Economics, wrote in an email.

“The problem for North Korea will be financing this initiative.”

North Korea’s centrally planned economy has shrunk significantly since the rise to power in 1994 of Kim Jong-il, whose government quickly stepped away from early attempts at economic reform which might have threatened its grip on power.

Money from overseas has been drying up as the prickly North has backed away from an international disarmament-for-aid deal and the impact of U.N. sanctions, tightened after its April 5 test launch of what many saw as a disguised long-range missile.

… 

Those likely to bear the brunt of this shift in internal spending will be the most impoverished in the already destitute state, analysts said.

They will be forced to mobilise for government projects, leaving their local and mostly rural economies to stagnate, which means less food in a country that for years has been unable to produce enough grain to feed its 23 million people.

Read the full article here:
North Korea’s prosperity push could raise poverty
Reuters
Jon Herskovitz
5/12/2009

According to Radio Free Asia:

Government price controls are now being imposed on non-food items in the markets, with frequent spot checks by state security police to monitor sales of sought-after household goods such as spoons, toothbrushes, and candles.

Price tags for more than 35 items were posted at farmers’ markets in Hweryong , Onsung, and Moosan cities in northern Hamgyong province, where North Korea’s poorest people go to buy the hard-to-find necessities of life.

“Market administrators and security agents take turns asking repeatedly about the price of various items,” a North Korean who recently defected to the South said in an interview.

“According to the government-imposed price tags, a toothbrush costs 200 won, a spoon 150 won, and 10 candles 1,000 won.”

This compares with unregulated prices of 250 won for a toothbrush, 200 won for a spoon, and 1,300-1500 won for a bundle of 10 candles.

An average monthly salary for a worker in North Korea is about 2,500 won.

“If someone asks the price, the vendors will be sure to give you the price dictated by the authorities, but they will not actually sell anything for that price,” the defector said.

Another South Korean-based defector agreed.

“When the inspectors come by, they see the official price on the tag, but when buyers come by, the vendors never sell for that price, but for a higher one,” the defector said.

“If buyers ask the vendor to sell for the government-imposed price, the vendors simply tell them to try to purchase for that price from somebody else.”

To avoid the watchful eye of the authorities, some vendors simply avoid going to farmers’ markets, and instead set up small bazaars elsewhere to sell manufactured goods.

The North Korean government has attempted to regulate the markets in numerous ways in the last few years (More history and commentary here).  So far the implementation of new rules has proven haphazard, unpredictable, and largely ineffective since the black market is well developed and the levels of bureaucracy involved in the operations are numerous and subject to local manipulation. 

The non-uniformity of these market regulations can be seen in the following IFES report:

North Koreans subject to harsher market controls
Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
NK Brief No. 09-5-6-1
2009-05-06  

Good Friends, a non-profit organization working for human rights in North Korea, reported recently that North Korean residents are becoming increasingly discontent due to the government’s strengthening of restrictions on markets.

The group’s online newsletter, “North Korea Today,” reported in its most recent issue (no. 275) that a new list of banned items, presented as the “February 17th policy”, was issued by authorities to women selling goods in the market in Chungjin, North Hamgyong Province on April 10th.

According to a Good Friends source, Party propaganda officials were dispatched to markets in broadcasting trucks in order to announce the new measure, blaring that the selling of goods on the list of banned items would be considered “anti-socialist” activity, and would be punished accordingly.

Other sources report that the ban has resulted in an increase of door-to-door sales, and that those in the market are still willing to take individual orders for goods on the banned list, and then meet outside of the market to complete the deal.

In Hyeryong, North Hamgyong Province and Hyesan, Ryanggang Province, the “February 17 policy” was posted around markets, but the details of the policy were not explained. In the city of Hamheung, market hours were also restricted, with sellers only allowed to operate from 1~6 pm.

The goods restricted were mostly imported wares, with as much as 90 percent of foreign goods banned, and absolutely all South Korean products blocked. Those caught selling restricted items can expect to have their goods confiscated, with additional punishment not unheard of.

So the good news is that these rules make little difference to the actual distribution of goods and services in the DPRK.  Of course the bad news is that the North Korean government keeps trying.

The whole story can be obtained here:
Radio Free Asia
Jung Young
5/6/2009