North Korean Economy Watch

According to the Choson Ilbo:

North Korea’s markets appear to be coming to life again after a botched currency reform late last year laid waste to them. Footage obtained by the Chosun Ilbo’s Northeast Asia Research Institute from a North Korean source on Wednesday shows the Chaeha market in the border town of Sinuiju early this month bustling with trade. “The sprawling Chaeha market was set up in 2003 and is located in a wealthy neighborhood along the trade route with China,” the source said.

Images taken in March of a market in Onsong released by the Chosun Ilbo in April showed most of the stalls empty, but the market in Sinuiju is now overflowing with sundries, clothes, hardware, fruits and food.

Lack of State Control

The market is bustling with traders and customers. North Korean security agents used to patrol the markets before the currency reform, but none are to be seen in the video. The only semblance of state control is an official wearing an armband that reads “administrator” walking quietly past the vendors.

According to sources in North Korea, markets in the country were practically deserted until May, but the situation began to change in June. Now business is booming. Sources say the authorities have virtually stopped trying to control the markets after former premier Kim Yong-il apologized for the failed currency reform and Park Nam-gi, the former director of the North Korean Workers Party’s Planning and Finance Department, was executed.

North Koreans apparently protested vehemently when the government failed to provide food following the currency debacle and demanded they be allowed to buy and sell goods in the markets. These days, the traders apparently hurl abuse at any security agents attempting to crack down. A South Korean intelligence source said, “It looks like North Korean authorities have given up their fight against the markets again.”

Clandestine S.Korean Products

Chinese products stacked on the shelves range from plastic basins, porcelain dishes and thermos bottles to cosmetics, electric fans, rice cookers and even motorcycle helmets.

But the scene is quite different behind the stalls. The source who provided the footage said, “Vendors openly sell Chinese products, but they sell South Korean goods under the table.” “Cuckoo rice cookers, Samsung Anycall mobile phones and LG TV sets are very popular,” the source said. “South Korean clothes are brought in with their labels removed, but wealthier people prefer South Korean clothes over Chinese ones.”

The source said a large market which sells only South Korean products has also formed in the Chinese city of Dandong just across the Apnok (or Yalu) River.

The situation is apparently the same in other North Korean markets. One North Korean defector who used to sell goods at an open-air market in North Hamgyong Province, said, “We display Chinese cosmetics but tell customers we also have South Korean ones. When a customer wants South Korean cosmetics, we take them out from under the table and sell them in the backroom.”

The traders sell South Korean products because they fetch a handsome profit. “Chinese products usually have a set price tag and consumers try to haggle, but South Korean products go for a premium and there’s no haggling over prices, because they are considered top-notch products,” the source said.

South Korean DVDs and music CDs are also in high demand. North Korean movies and CDs, are on display, but the latest South Korean soap operas and American action movies are freely available under the table, according to the defector.

I am glad to see that market life in Sinuiju is bustling, but I do not believe this demonstrates how market activity has recovered in places like Onsong.  Sinuiju handles the bulk of the China/DPRK trade and wholesalers from across the country go there to do business.  I would like to see some current footage of market activity in Onsong and other “remote” places (i.e not Phyongsong, Hamhung, Chongjin, or Sinuiju) to have a better idea of how conditions have bounced back.

I believe this is the location of the Chaeha Market, but I am only guessing.  If you have a better idea, please let me know.

Read the full story here:
Footage Shows N.Korean Markets Bustling Again
Choson Ilbo
8/19/2010

According to the Joong Ang Daily:

North Korea has added corn and rice to the list of items to be monitored for price hikes at markets in Pyongyang, a South Korean official said yesterday, suggesting that food staples are increasingly traded privately in the capital as its rationing system falters.

A Unification Ministry official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity due to the information’s classified nature, said North Korean authorities recently introduced price caps on the two staples at markets in Pyongyang.

“The regime appears to be increasingly allowing markets to take over the role its rationing system once played,” the official said, adding that the two items were not on the monitor list when his ministry obtained a copy of the document in February.

North Korea allows a limited number of markets to operate independently under strict rules. The country apparently cracked down on its growing merchant class when it conducted a sweeping currency reform last year.

…

In a related development, a Unification Ministry report said earlier this week that the price of farm products such as beans, chicken, corn and rice shot up two to three times from February to July.

The report said the increases can also be attributed to the appreciation of the Chinese yuan. Because North Korea imports many of its products from China, the rise of the yuan’s value can also affect the purchasing power of North Korea.

Read the full story here:
North eases trade rules on corn, rice
Joong Ang Daily
8/5/2010

Google Earth has added some new GeoEye imagery for Sinuiju, Ryongchon, and Phihyon counties. The imagery dates are Oct 12, 2009 and April 14th, 2009.  So what is new in this area?

Pyongyang–Sinuiju highway under construction
It can be most easily seen between the Sinuiju Train Station and Rakwon-dong.

Villages along the highway are being spruced up in anticipation of car traffic:

The highway construction can be seen as far south as half-way between Ryongchon and Yomju.  I suspect that it is intended to continue south to Anju where it will meet up with the Pyongyang-Hyangsan highway.

Market construction in Sinuiju and Phihyon County
I blogged about the new Sinuiju market here. Below is imagery of the new Phihyon County Market (피현군):

Ponghwa Chemical Factory (Refinery)
It was partially visible before, but now we can see the whole thing. It is one of two refineries in the DPRK.  The other is in Rason (satellite image here).

Reconstructed Ryonchon City (룡천시)
I have previously blogged about this here.

On the left is an image taken after the infamous 2004 Ryongchon explosion.  On the right is the city as it appears reconstructed in 2009.

Ryongchon offers another interesting secret.  In the past, the high street ran through the center of the city (North-South):

Today, however, traffic is routed around the western side of Ryongchon rather than through the center of town.  The road in the center of town has been converted into a public square of sorts (as can be seen in the images above), and the wide avenues that run the North-South distance of the city now come to an awkward end in the fields…

Bottom photos: North and south sides of town and their vanishing high streets

Also, in 2005 the North Korean government was building either a highway or canal on the western side of Ryongchon, but this effort seems completely abandoned today:

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
NK Brief No. 10-08-06-1
8/6/2010

Over the last five months, regular food rations have not been provided even to those in the capital city of Pyongyang, indicating the severity of food shortages in North Korea. According to the ROK Ministry of Unification, rice and corn were added to the list of goods with controlled prices in at least one market in Pyongyang. A list of controlled goods with state-set upper price limits has been distributed to each market throughout North Korea since 2003. While prices may vary slightly, comparing them with earlier price caps gives a good indication of the availability of goods.

The July appearance of rice and corn on the list of restricted goods, neither of which has been on the list even as far back as February, when strict market controls were enacted in the aftermath of failed currency reform measures, indicates that the ration system is not operating normally, even in Pyongyang. It also means that not only are officials not receiving normal rations, but that average residents are relying more on markets for their food. One Unification Ministry official stated, “Rice was on the list of controlled goods in markets outside of Pyongyang in February, but couldn’t be found in markets in the capital city…in July, rice and corn emerged [as items with price caps] in Pyongyang markets.” The official also explained that as the food ration system collapsed even in Pyongyang, the issuance of price caps on rice and corn was an indication that more people were turning to the markets to buy these staples.

Looking at other goods on the list, it appears that agricultural goods cost 3~7 times more in July than in February, and manufactured goods were as much as 7 times more expensive. Necessary goods, both agricultural and manufactured, have grown considerably more expensive in North Korea over just five months. More specifically, beans were up 3.6-fold; chicken, 3.3-fold; lettuce, 3-fold; apples, 6.3-fold; rice and corn, 2-fold. Ball-point pens and other daily-use items were up 5~6-fold. In July, rice sold for 550 won per kilogram, while corn was priced at 280 won per kilo.

The price caps are upper limits set by North Korean authorities, but the reality is that goods are often sold at higher prices. The shortage of agricultural goods, and the fact that the Chinese Yuan has appreciated 3-fold since February, has led to these record price-hikes. On May 26, Workers’ Party of Korea (WPK) authorities issued a decree, “Regarding Korea’s Current Food Situation,” calling for residents to fend for themselves. As prices skyrocketed on agricultural goods, one measure adopted by North Korean authorities has been to more than double exports of iron ore from Musan, North Hamgyong Province to China, while drastically increasing the import of corn. This increased import of corn has brought down the price of rice from 1,200 to 900 won per kilogram in Musan, while corn itself has fallen from 600 to 500 won. On the other hand, the drop in the foreign currency exchange rate in mid-July caused a shortage of dollars, driving the price of rice up to as high as 1,200 won per kilogram in some regions.

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
NK Brief No.10-07-19-4
7/19/2010

Market prices in North Korea, which had been falling since March, have again begun to grow since the second week of July. This year’s prices have not followed the trends normally seen in the North; usually, prices fluctuate around the April~May lean crop season. According to a Daily NK source within North Korea, rice cost 450-500 won/Kg at the Hyeryeong Market, in North Hamgyeong Province, up until the end of June. However, prices had shot up to 750 won/Kg by July 13. Corn had also risen to more than 400 won/Kg. Along with the rise in prices, the exchange rate for won-to-yuan rose to 150:1, indicating that the value of the North Korean won had plummeted to a very low level.

Since the mid-2000s, as market economics expanded in the North, food prices tended to shoot up during the lean season of April~May every year. After potato and barley harvests in late June, prices again rise until September, when food prices tend to drop in anticipation of fall grain harvests. Because of this trend, most market traders spend November and December concentrating on buying up food stocks, and they then actively sell their food stores after April. Government authorities have also been known to stockpile food at the end of a year in order to resell after April at considerably higher prices. This regular fluctuation of prices also leads most North Koreans to stockpile all the food they can in December and January.

However, with the currency reform efforts enacted last November 30, North Korea’s food prices set off on a very different trend. Because the North Korean authorities closed markets after last year’s currency reform, January rice prices soared to sixty times as much as before the reform measure. Markets were allowed to reopen after February 5, but food prices remained unstable through mid-March. As the food stockpiling that North Koreans needed to do in December was delayed until March, spring sales were driven more by demand than by supply.

At the beginning of April, Pyongyang authorized the distribution of a small amount of food. Residents of the capital city received enough corn to get through May and June, and these rations, along with rumors of food imports following Kim Jong Il’s trip to China, helped stabilize prices. However, this stability faltered after less than two months. Anticipated Chinese food imports never materialized, and authorities discussed food shortages. In May, North Ham Province party officials released an order titled ‘Each unit is to resolve the food problems in the latter half of the year’. The lack of food and confidence circulating even at government levels again undermined market stability.

A continually soaring exchange rate also drove up prices. The won-to-yuan rate had climbed to 110:1 by June, and in late July has risen to 150:1. North Korean prices rise with the exchange rate, so without food price stabilization measures from the government, food costs will likely continue to grow.

Traders in Hyesan, Yanggang Province have more freedom to trade than most in North Korea, and are permitted to cross over into China once every two weeks in order to purchase goods to sell in North Korean markets. However, prices in the region continue to grow as demand cannot be met, due in part to the rising exchange rate that makes it increasingly expensive to import Chinese goods.

In the aftermath of the currency reform, North Korean authorities have released some food originally slated for military use and enacted measures to force down prices in an attempt to sooth the public. But, these attempts provided only temporary stability, and cracks are again appearing under the weight of rising exchange rates.

North Korea is planning to hold the first meeting of Party leaders in 44 years, and the state media has been emphasizing the economic successes of Kim Jong Eun in order to shore up support for him. Despite the press, however, average citizens in the North only see rising prices. Recently, due to the harvest season, Hyesan markets have been open only between 3:00 and 7:00 in the afternoon. Despite the limited hours, when doors open there is no apparent crackdown on prices or on the use of foreign currency, and markets are operating freely. However, since increasing numbers of North Koreans find themselves broke after the currency reform, sales are still slow.

The North’s economic situation is likely to get worse. Flooding during the July-August rainy season could have a detrimental impact of fall harvests. Farms already suffered from frosts in the spring, raising expectations that this year’s harvests will be lean. If fall harvests are light, concerns over food could grow, further destabilizing the food markets. Food prices are expected to continue to rise, and if this inflation impacts other goods, as well, disturbances such as those seen in January are likely to occur.

According to the Daily NK:

The price of rice has exceeded 1,000 won in border areas of North Korea, according to sources.

A source from North Hamkyung Province reported to The Daily NK on Sunday that the rice price had reached 1,050 won in Hoiryeong, 1,000 won in Hyesan and 950 won in Shinuiju.

Another source from Hoiryeong reported on Monday morning, “Rice prices have been going up since July, and they continue to rise steeply. Once rice prices go up, other prices follow suit. It is worrisome.”

The pace of the rises is dramatic. On the 1st of this month, the price hit 500 won, on around the 11th, 750 won, and on the 18th, 1,000 won. In just two weeks, then, it has doubled. If it keeps rising at this speed, it will rise to more than 1,200 won, a price which was also recorded in February this year.

Indeed, one South Korean NGO, People for Successful Corean Reunification (PSCORE), said today that the rice price in Musan, North Hamkyung Province has already hit 1,200 won.

Sources unanimously agree that the cause of the rises is the rising value of the Chinese Yuan.

The North Hamkyung Province source said, “In one week, one Yuan grew to be worth 220 won (from 150 won). That is exactly double the value of the won late last month.” It is also exactly the same rate of increase as rice is experiencing.

The source predicted that, “In short order, one Yuan may be worth 300 won.”

“People are suffering from increasing food prices. Even corn is now 500 won (per kilogram),” he added.

Even though the authorities hope to trumpet economic achievements in the September Delegates’ Conference in order to publicize Kim Jong Eun’s succession, it seems that complaints against the third generation succession as well as rising food prices are increasing.

Sources are watching with keen interest whether the authorities are planning to try and ameliorate the skyrocketing prices.

Read the full story below:
Rice Prices Break Through 1,000 Won
Daily NK
Yoo Gwan Hee
7/19/2010

According to the Daily NK:

As previously reported, the price of rice in North Korea, which declined in March, has started soaring again. But this rice price fluctuation looks different from those of previous years.

According to a source from North Hamkyung Province, rice in Hoiryeong market was between 450 and 500 won per kilogram until late June, but on July 13th it hit 750 won. Corn rice is also more than 400 won now.

At the same time, one Yuan is now worth 150 won.

Since the mid-2000s when the market economy started to spread, rice prices have risen during the spring poverty season in April and May. And then, in around late June, when potatoes and barley are harvested, prices stabilize, and then, in September, they decline in expectation of the harvest.

Therefore, traders in the jangmadang generally buy rice and other grains in November and December and then sell them in the jangmadang during April. Cadres also use that regular cycle of food price rises and falls to profit by buying rice late in the year and releasing it for a higher prices during the next spring. Therefore, poorer people also try to get rice and grain in winter time.

However, since the currency redenomination, the fluctuations have changed.

Immediately after the redenomination, the authorities released a measure shutting down the markets, so in January rice prices rose by around 60 times compared with before the redenomination. The markets have been open once again since February 5th, but food prices remained unstable through mid-March. That was because people did not buy grains until March, at which time demand promptly far outstripped supply.

In April this year, there was a limited amount of food distribution and some residents in some districts of Pyongyang received corn, which they were supposed to receive in May and June, in advance. Additionally, as a result of Kim Jong Il’s visit to China, rumor had it that a large amount of food would be delivered, so rice prices were relatively flat.

However, when the rumor turned out to be empty, a decree was handed down to lower units in May ordering food self-reliance at the local level. This only intensified anxiety about the food situation.

More serious problems may come in July and August, monsoon season. If the weather affects farming, anxiety about food for the last half of the year will grow. Make things worse, there was cold-weather damage to farming early this year, so a lost harvest is clearly going to be on people’s minds.

On this, one source said, “Food wholesalers predict that prices will go on rising until the harvest in August. And when rising food prices influence general products, big troubles can come, like they did in January of this year.”

 

Click image to see Hoeryong market prices.

Read the full story here:
Food Price Cycle Twisting in the Wind
Daily NK
Yoo Gwan Hee
7/13/2010

According to the Daily NK:

The price of rice in the three northern provinces of North Korea (Yangkang, North and South Hamkyung) has risen above 750 won for the first time in four months.

A source from Yangkang Province told The Daily NK yesterday, “Chosun rice prices have reached a high of 750 won in the Hyesan jangmadang,” and added, “Rice prices in Hyesan, Wiyeon and Chundong in Yangkang Province are at a similar level.”

In Chongjin, North Hamkyung Province, on around the 5th of this month the price of a kilo of rice hit 700 won. If the inflationary trend were to continue, by late July or early in August, it could have surpassed 1,000 won.

That said, the future is hard to predict. Rice immediately after the redenomination could nominally be bought for 20 won per kilo, but by mid-March this year was setting people back more than 1,000 won. However, the next month, prices had dropped back to around 500 won.

The source explained that the reason for the current situation may be the rising exchange rate. One Yuan was 110 won until last month, but is currently worth more than 150 won. North Korean exchange rates tend not to go down without intervention, so without any decisive measures by the authorities to stabilize rice prices, the result will be a rise in prices overall.

Hyesan in Yangkang Province is one of the comparatively free places where traders can visit China once every two weeks or so; therefore, rice prices were quite fluid. However, the reason why rice prices even in this city continue to rise is that there is not enough rice being imported, while exchange rates are rising inexorably.

The North Korean authorities once tried to lower prices by releasing rice from military stores. However, the effect was fleeting.

According to the source, the Hyesan jangmadang currently opens at 3PM and closes at 7PM due to agricultural activities, but trading is unrestricted. No regulations on price or usage of foreign currency are in place, but trade in industrial products remains slow due to the dire economic status of the majority of residents.

The authorities are trying to emphasize economic achievements in order to promote Kim Jong Eun’s succession, but the economic situation people are facing is far from satisfactory.

Read the full story here:
Rice Prices on the Rise
Daily NK
Shin Joo Hyun
7/13/2010

Accroding to the Daily NK:

The 8th issue of Rimjingang, the periodical written by North Korean underground journalists, sheds light on North Korea’s private livestock industry.

One article, “Livestock Industry Developing from Private Means of Living into Private Enterprise,” describes how pig farming has developed during and since the famine period. It explains how, under the functioning planned economy, the “livestock industry” amounted to each household unit raising pigs to sell on the side, but now the planned economy is little more than a distant memory and the livestock sector has been specialized and systematized into sectors; breeding, butchery, distribution and sale.

That is why in North Korean markets 90% of goods are Chinese, but 100% of pigs and pork is North Korean.

Under the planned economy, roughly 20% of people in rural areas privately raised pigs and sold them to state meat procurement stores for two kilograms of corn per kilo of meat, the report notes. But from the mid 1980s, procurement stores bought them for cash, so competition grew and eventually the stores had to close due to increasing prices and their own lack of ready cash. Since the 1990s, distribution has stopped and more than 50% of people have started raising pigs in more specialized ways, it adds.

The report goes on to explain that during the March of Tribulation people figured out that their salaries, even when received, represented a mere tiny fraction of the labor value they could realize by trading illegally in the jangmadang. Many were unwilling to put up with it.

“Going through the March of Tribulation, the profit motive through the market has opened the door to new food lives which the Leader cannot open with his slogan, ‘reform food lives with meat,’” the report asserts. “Now, since a powerful supply and demand system has been spontaneously established, anybody can afford to eat meat as long as they can earn money.”

“’Leave us alone!’ is the real voice of the people of Chosun,” the report concludes, adding that the phenomenon of the Chosun pig farming industry implies the clear potential to develop modern industry in North Korea.

The 8th edition of Rimjingang was published in Korean on June 30th.

Read the full story here:
The All-North Korean Pig Farming Sector
Daily NK
Yoo Gwan Hee
7/10/2010

According to the Daily NK:

Food price in North Korea at the end of spring held steady against food prices in March, and worries about an impending famine proved unfounded.

The Daily NK has looked at market food prices in Pyongyang, Shinuiju, and Chongjin over the first week of July. Everywhere, rice cost about 500 won while corn cost about 400 won. Compared to food prices in March, during the period when food is traditionally in the shortest supply, rice prices were much the same, whereas corn prices had risen by 50 percent.

A source inside North Korea explained, “Since the redenomination, some people have dropped from ‘middle income’ to ‘poor.’ As a result, demand for corn has increased, and that is the reason why corn prices have gone up. Some people still eat rice; however, many of those who used to eat rice are now feeding their families on corn.”

“Because of the planting battle, market hours were made shorter, but the market is running smoothly and food prices are stabilizing.”

However, the source conceded that the food security of senior citizens with no family support and homeless children seems to be very bad. The source said some of these people are indeed dying of malnutrition and disease, though not outright starvation.

So, while the food supply situation in North Korea is not in unusually poor shape, it seems that the aftereffects of last year’s redenomination are still taking effect,

Corn prices have increased by almost 100 won on average in the last month, and flour prices have also increased by about 200 won.

However, the price of fuels such as gasoline and diesel either remained the same or decreased slightly. Gasoline remains at 900 won, which is a hundred won less than it was in May. Diesel remains at 400 won, which is 200 hundred won less than it was.

Since last year, North Korea has been pursuing various construction projects as part of its goal of building a strong and prosperous state by 2012. It is possible that fuel heading for construction sites is finding its way into the markets.

Here is the data in JPG format!

Read the full story here:
Market Prices Holding Firm
Daily NK
http://www.dailynk.com/english/read.php?cataId=nk01500&num=6568
Yang Jung A
7/7/2010