North Korean Economy Watch

Version 5: Download it here (on Google Earth) 

This map covers North Korea’s agriculture, aviation, cultural locations, manufacturing facilities, railroad, energy infrastructure, politics, sports venues, military establishments, religious facilities, leisure destinations, and national parks. It is continually expanding and undergoing revisions. This is the fifth version.

Additions to the latest version of “North Korea Uncovered” include updates to new Google Earth overlays of Sinchon, UNESCO sites, Railroads, canals, and the DMZ, in addition to Kim Jong Suk college of eduation (Hyesan), a huge expansion of the electricity grid (with a little help from Martyn Williams) plus a few more parks, antiaircraft sites, dams, mines, canals, etc.

Disclaimer: I cannot vouch for the authenticity of many locations since I have not seen or been to them, but great efforts have been made to check for authenticity. These efforts include pouring over books, maps, conducting interviews, and keeping up with other peoples’ discoveries. In many cases, I have posted sources, though not for all. This is a thorough compilation of lots of material, but I will leave it up to the reader to make up their own minds as to what they see. I cannot catch everything and I welcome contributions.

I hope this map will increase interest in North Korea. There is still plenty more to learn, and I look forward to receiving your additions to this project.

Korea Times
Yoon Ja-young
10/2/2007

The second inter-Korea summit is expected to lay the ground not only for the establishment of a permanent peace on the peninsula but for further re-rating of the Seoul stock market, analysts said.

They said that Seoul stocks, burdened so long with the so-called “Korea discount” due to geopolitical concerns, will get a fresh boost as President Roh Moo-hyun entered North Korea for a summit with the North’s leader Kim Jong-il.

The main index KOSPI closed above 2,000 points again Tuesday as it closed at 2,014.09 points, up 51.42 points, or 2.62 percent, on the balmy news from north on top of the bullish New York bourse.

Most analysts agree that the summit will have a positive effect on the bourse in the long term. They advise investors to pay attention to stocks that have to do with social overhead capital (SOC) projects in North Korea.

Samsung Securities said the summit will be a great boon for the bourse in the long run. “The political events between the two countries haven’t affected stock prices much. Opinions diverge regarding its effect in the short term, but it would greatly contribute to the revaluation of local stock market in the end,” said Ahn Tae-kang, an analyst at Samsung Securities.

The world was surprised when the two countries announced the summit plan in 2000 April, and the whole nation watched the historic scene on TV when former President Kim Dae-jung was greeted by North Korean leader Kim Jong-il in Pyongyang two months later.

The stock market soared after each of these events, yet change was not always predictable. When North Korea conducted nuclear tests in 2006, on the contrary, stocks continued to rise as foreign investors sought buying shares on cheap prices.

It is different this time, according to analysts. “It would be a remarkable bullish factor once the two come out with a concrete plan on economic cooperation and SOC,” said Lee Seon-yeob, an analyst at Goodmorning Shinhan Securities. It would be only symbolic if without concrete agreements, he feared, but it would still be meaningful, according to Lee.

“The two can talk about setting up special economic zones, which can give rising momentum to North Korea related stocks and improve overall investor sentiment,” Kiwoom Securities said in a report.

Samsung Securities’ Ahn cited decreasing geopolitical risk and consequent reevaluation of stocks, the economic cooperation between the two and decreasing cost of unification after North Korea’s adoption of a market system and opening of the market as meanings of the summit. “The growing possibility of the sovereign credit ratings raise and Seoul index’s incorporation into developed world indices and the risk premium decrease are some of the positive effects,” he said.

He advised investors to concentrate on large cap blue chips that will benefit from infra projects in North Korea. Hyundai Engineering & Construction, POSCO, Hyundai Merchant Marine, Hyundai Elevator, KEPCO, and Hyosung were among his top picks.

Goodmorning Shinhan’s Lee said cited SOC related businesses, including construction and power transmission as the ones to benefit from the summit. “In the first summit, all stocks related with North Korea skyrocketed, but not this time. Investors are taking out the ones that will have a visible benefit. Investors seem to know how to make a good investment,” Lee said.

North Korea-related shares rise on summit
Joong Ang Daily
Kim Bo-yung
10/2/2007

With just a day left before the second epoch-making inter-Korean summit, North Korea-related shares surged on the Korean stock market yesterday.

The power facility industry enjoyed a moderate increase. Geumhwa PCS Co. advanced 5.5 percent, and Doosan Heavy Industries & Construction Co. climbed 2.37 percent.

The electric wire sector also posted a bull run as LG Cable and Taihan Electric Wire Co. surged 5.3 percent and 2.8 percent.

Nam Hae Chemical Corporation, a local agrichemical product manufacture, increased 5.6 percent.

However, the companies that have penetrated into the Kaeseong Industrial Complex suffered a loss.

Romanson Co. tumbled 3.3 percent and JY Solutec Co. slid 0.8 percent.

The share prices of Ewha Technologies Information, Cheryong Industrial Co. and KwangMyung Electronic, potential beneficiaries of electricity transmission from South to North Korea, dropped by 6 to 13 percent.

The second inter-Korean summit is expected to improve investment sentiment, generating strong gains across the board.

However, some market watchers warn investors not to make impulsive investments in North Korea-related shares.

“Although investment sentiment surrounding the stock market is [expected] to improve once the inter-Korean summit kicks off, it will only have a short-term effect,” said Oh Hyun-seok, the investment information manager at Samsung Securities.

Chosun Ilbo (h/t Tim Beal)
9/19/2007

The government is seeking to incorporate the cost of electricity supply for the Kaesong Industrial Complex in North Korea into South Korea’s own electricity fee system. Combining the two would allow losses from the Kaesong complex worth several billions of won a year since 2005 to be absorbed by the overall scheme. But that would mean the South Korean public has to shoulder the cost.

Grand National Party lawmaker Eom Ho-sung on Tuesday released official documents exchanged between the Unification Ministry and power monopoly KEPCO. “According to a feasibility study by Deloitte HanaAnjin accounting firm commissioned by KEPCO, electricity transmission to Kaesong costs the South an annual W19.3 billion (US$1=W930) and an estimated total of W966.8 billion by 2054,” he said. It cost the South W5.8 billion in the 2005/2006 fiscal year.

Electricity used at Kaesong is rated as industrial-use costing W4,190-5,520 per kilowatt, cheaper than for South Korean homes, so a loss is inevitable. According to the documents released Tuesday, the ministry told related departments in June to review a way to compensate for the fee loss at Kaesong, by using the Inter-Korean Cooperation Fund to fill in for the past loss and combining the Kaesong fees with the domestic electricity bills in the future.

The most authoritative, publicly available map of North Korea
Version 4: August 29, 2007

Download it here 

This map covers North Korea’s agriculture, aviation, cultural locations, manufacturing facilities, railroad, energy infrastructure, politics, sports venues, military establishments, religious facilities, leisure destinations, and national parks. It is continually expanding and undergoing revisions. This is the fourth version.

Additions to the latest version of “North Korea Uncovered” include the city of Manpo along the Chinese border, KEDO, Kumgang Resort expansion, Kaesong Industrial Zone, as well as a few more parks, antiaircraft sites, dams, mines, canals, etc. I have also added more links in the menu which will tell the viewer a bit about the locations themselves. I have also changed the color scheme to make the collage easier to view.

Disclaimer: I cannot vouch for the authenticity of many locations since I have not seen or been to them, but great efforts have been made to check for authenticity. These efforts include pouring over books, maps, conducting interviews, and keeping up with other peoples’ discoveries. In many cases, I have posted sources, though not for all. This is a thorough compilation of lots of material, but I will leave it up to the reader to make up their own minds as to what they see. I cannot catch everything and I welcome contributions.

I hope this map will increase interest in North Korea. There is still plenty more to learn, and I look forward to receiving your additions to this project.

Institute for Far Easter Studies
NK Brief No. 07-8-14-1

The second inter-Korean summit meeting is coming up soon, scheduled to open on August 28 in Pyongyang, and interest is building regarding discussion on economic cooperation. It is true that the North is prioritizing political and military issues in order to shore up its government by normalizing relations with the United States. However, considering its serious economic woes, the ability of South Korea to offer a ‘gift package’ can significantly influence the success or failure of this summit.

It is not yet clear how economic cooperation will fit into the agenda, but Seoul and Pyongyang have been constantly discussing this issue, so some insight has been given. In particular, the ‘consumer’ North has been referring to domestic and international cooperation, and through Pyongyang’s requests, some clarity has been added to what goals could unfold during the upcoming meeting.

Energy Sector

The North Korean economy is saddled with severe shortages of electricity and fuel oil, causing production to slow and therefore stagnating consumption, putting the country into an ongoing vicious circle of economic depression. North Korea possesses facilities to produce 7.7 million kW of steam- and hydro-electric power, but in reality is incapable of operating these facilities at more than 30%.

The opinion that expansion of North Korea’s electrical infrastructure is necessary, not only for the North, but also for South Korea, is gaining strength. South Korean projects to develop North Korean mines and import its coal have been delayed due to a lack of electrical power. In the future, enterprises looking to set up in North Korea will also require a steady supply of electricity.

In what way the two Koreas will cooperate on energy is not yet known, but North Korea is sticking to its demand for light-water nuclear reactors. If construction were restarted on the reactors begun by the now-defunct Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization (KEDO), North Korea could quickly have not only the energy production amount currently available, but an additional 2 million kW, as well.

North Korea’s power facilities are in a state of deterioration, but the number of facilities in the North are adequate for the current state of the economy, so a plan for the restoration of generation and transmission facilities, or the 2 million kW of electrical power offered by the South Korean government two years ago could be considered sufficient.

Natural Resource and Infrastructure Development

One other highly probable agenda item on inter-Korean economic cooperation will be development of natural resources. This is because a model in which North Korea’s relatively abundant underground natural resources are developed, and in which these resources being used by South Korean businesses, would create a ‘win-win’ result for both Seoul and Pyongyang.

According to a report given by the Korea Resources Corporation at a conference last year, North Korea possesses upward of forty different valuable minerals, including iron-ore. Analysis of these North Korean resources shows that a considerable amount of South Korea’s 40 trillion won (430 billion USD) worth of mineral imports per year could be brought in from North Korea instead.

As development projects in North Korea’s graphite mines are already underway, and the import of North Korean anthracite is being considered in order to meet quickly growing demand for charcoal in the South, cooperation in the natural resource sector appears to be one of the core points to inter-Korean economic cooperation.

As for North Korea’s railways, the heart of the country’s distribution infrastructure, completion of the section of track on the Kyungui Line between Kaesong Station and Moonsan Station, as well as the section of the East Sea Line between Mt. Kumgang Station and Jejin Station, means that the infrastructure for regular service between the two countries is now in place, although talks regarding the details of such regular service are not being held.

If regular service on these two lines between North and South Korea can be achieved, expensive transportation costs can be reduced, and of course, in the future, connection of the railway with continental rail networks such as the Trans-Siberian Rail and the Trans-China Rail would help to enable the Korean Peninsula to emerge as the hub of North East Asian distribution.

Furthermore, considering the fact that North Korea’s mining facilities and technology, as well as its ports, loading facilities, and other transportation infrastructure, are severely lacking, a plan linking development of natural resources to projects developing infrastructure also appears viable. It is also already known, to some extent, the nature of North Korean needs in its infrastructure sector, and if this upcoming summit closes successfully, it is expected that an inventory of these needs will become more concrete.

Vitalizing Kaesong Industrial Complex

The Kaesong Industrial Complex (KIC) is also an important undertaking. At the moment, a problem has arisen concerning the construction of a second KIC, but even if only the originally planned 26.4 million square-meter complex is built, the fact is that currently the first 3.3 million square-meter stage is complete, and considering that it employs North Korean labor, this is no easy feat. Companies moving into the KIC are asking that easy communication with South Korea and simplified import procedures be prioritized.

Yonhap
Lee Joon-seung
8/13/2007

Repairing North Korea’s existing power generation infrastructure is an effective way to help North Korea cope with its chronic power shortage, a South Korean state-run think tank said Monday.

The Korea Energy Economic Institute (KEEI) said refurbishing North Korea’s existing infrastructure may be a more effective way to boost electric power than building new thermal generators and nuclear reactors.

Korea Times
Ryu Jin
8/9/2007

South Korea is expected to propose a large-scale investment plan in social overhead capital (SOC) in North Korea in the inter-Korean summit late this month to help the impoverished state revive its economy, according to officials on Thursday.

Officials in Seoul said that the package proposal will likely include the provision of electricity, renovation of the Pyongyang-Gaeseong highway, improvement of facilities in Nampo port and establishment of a fertilizer factory.

President Roh Moo-hyun and North Korean leader Kim Jong-il are set to meet in Pyongyang Aug. 28-30, seven years after Roh’s predecessor, Kim Dae-jung, met with the reclusive North Korean leader.

While the Roh administration finds itself in a difficult position to give direct assistance to the North, such as provisions of rice and fertilizer — not to mention cash — it appears to have opted for “indirect’’ SOC investment, according to the sources.

Former President Kim Dae-jung won the Nobel Peace Prize for the first-ever summit in June 2000, but his achievement was partly tainted by later revelation that Seoul had secretly transferred $500 million to Pyongyang to foster the historic summit.

Roh, who has put more weight on transparency in North Korea affairs, often stressed the need to help North Korea repair its devastated economy with its own hand and get out of its economic slump.

In February, the Unification Ministry drew up a roadmap for a large-scale economic cooperation, focusing on “what the North really wants.’’ Seoul will likely make some offers to Pyongyang in the upcoming summit, according to government sources.

Dubbed “Roadmap to Hope,’’ the ministry plan includes as many as 16 items such as the provision of 2 million-kilowatt electricity, worth some $900 million every year, and renovation of the 170-kilometer Pyongyang-Gaeseong highway ($307.7 billion).

Other items include the improvement of facilities in Nampo port, the construction of a 330,000-ton fertilizer plant and installation of tree nurseries in Pyongyang, Gaeseong and Hamheung.

“We are sorting out items that could be offered,’’ a high-profile government official said on condition of anonymity. “I think our proposal for the SOC investment could be discussed in the working-level preparatory talks in Gaeseong next week.’’

Experts estimated that the aid package could reach 9 trillion won to 13 trillion won ($9.7 billion to $14 billion) in the coming several years, if major items such as the highway renovation are included on top of the ongoing supply of heavy fuel oil.

Seoul is expected to demand the establishment of liaison offices across the border and the regularization of military talks headed by the defense ministers from the two sides in return for the economic incentives, according to the sources.

But the large-scale economic assistance is expected to trigger fiery debate in the South, as conservatives, represented by the opposition Grand National Party (GNP), have often lashed out at the government’s “single-handed’’ assistance amid the nuclear standoff.

Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance and Economy Kwon O-kyu, who is to accompany Roh to Pyongyang, stressed on Thursday that the aid package would be offered “transparently’’ in close coordination with the international community.

“South-North Cooperation Fund, operated under the endorsement of the National Assembly, could be used first,’’ he told reporters. “I think we should also try to create a favorable environment for the inter-Korean economic projects in close cooperation with the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank.’’

Daily NK
Han Young Jin
8/1/2007

With the flooding season also starting in North Korea, the electricity situation has taken an upturn with the increase in hydroelectric plants’ water, an insider source relayed on the 29th.

The source said, “Presently, close to 20 hours of electricity out of 24 hours in the day are supplied in big cities and in the provinces, electricity is provided for four to five hours. Compared to an hour a day beginning of the year, the situation has improved significantly.”

Further, he said, “After dinner, the heaven and earth became dark, but nowadays, electric light comes on every household. With the provision of electricity, the People’s Safety Agency is raising a racket inspecting whether or not civilians are watching foreign CDs.”

The source criticized the People’s Safety Agency’s behavior, “During winter, thieves who stole electric lines going into major organizations were threatened with severe punishment, but now, with hours of electric supply, the Agency is going around saying they will severely punish those who watch foreign movies.”

Most of North Korea is supplied by hydraulic power, but in the winter season, there is a shortage of water of hydroelectric dams, so the generation of power shrinks by half. On top of this, the recent production of fossil has decreased, which caused thermal power plants’ rate of operations to fall and worsened the shortage.

In North Korea, the wintertime electricity situation is normally the worst. During summer, the situation gets better, but from winter, it becomes worse again. With the recent flooding season, the precipitation rose and has caused an improvement in the electricity situation as a whole.

The source said, “Generally, with the resolution of the electricity shortage, the amount of operations of North Korean railroads has increased and the speed has become faster as well. North Korean railroads mostly operate by electricity. The railroads have overseen 90% of freights and approximately 60% of travelers.

On one hand, the source said, “The cases of people who can afford trades and use buses over trains are increasing. Traders prefer arriving on time and traveling comfortably, even if that means paying more money.”

He added, “Individuals or organizations can operate buses for three years after receiving business permits, but in three years, it is known that they offer the buses to the state and operate them by charter.”

Now available on Google Earth! 
(click above to download to your own Google Earth)

North Korea Uncovered v.3

Google Earth added a high-resolution overlay of the area between Pyongyang and Nampo.  In it, most of the Koguryo tombs listed with UNESCO are now distinguishable.  In addition, viewers can see the latest Kim Jong Il palace (including a yacht), the DPRK’s premier golf course, and the Chinese-built Taean Glass factory.  I have also made some progress in mapping out the DPRK electricity grid.

This is the most authoritative map of North Korea that exists publicly today.  Agriculture, aviation, cultural institutions, manufacturing, railroad, energy, politics, sports, military, religion, leisure, national parks…they are all here, and will captivate anyone interested in North Korea for hours.

Naturally, I cannot vouch for the authenticity of many locations since I have not seen or been to them, but great efforts have been made to check for authenticity. In many cases, I have posted sources, though not for all. This is a thorough compilation of lots of material, but I will leave it up to the reader to make up their own minds on the more “controversial” locations. In time, I hope to expand this further by adding canal and road networks.

I hope this post will launch a new interest in North Korea. There is still plenty more to learn, and I look forward to hearing about improvements that can be made.

Daily NK
Park Hyun Min
6/23/2007

Power transmission lines not used since May 1948 have been reopened to supply electricity to North Korea. The Ministry of Commerce, Industry, and Energy and the Korea Electric Power Corporation (KEPCO) held a commemoration ceremony for the completion of the Pyonghwa (Peace) Substation on June 21st. The substation will supply electricity to a first-phrase zone (3,3mn square meters) in the Kaesung Industrial Complex. Kim Young Joo, the Minister of Commerce, Industry, and Energy, Lee Won Gul, the CEO of KEPCO, and Lee Yoon Sung, a member of National Assembly participated in the ceremony.

Natural sources of electricity were abundant in North Korea before the Korean War because most electronic power facilities built during Japanese colonial period were concentrated in the North. Southern provinces of the Korean peninsula received electricity from the North through the 154kV power-transmission line between Pyongyang and Susaek Substation in Seoul until May 14, 1948.

The new substation was completed at a cost of 35bl dollars. The line runs 16km from Munsan Substation in Paju, Gyeonggi, South Korea, through the DMZ, and terminates at the Kaesung Complex. It consists of 48 pylons, 154kV power-transmission wire, and outdoor substations in Kaesung. The substation is supplying 100 thousand kilowatts of electricity to approximately 300 factories located in the first-phrase zone of the Kaesung Complex. As demand increases, the amount of electricity supplied by KEPCO could double. KEPCO has already been supplying electricity to specific factories in the Kaesung Complex since March, 2005.

In his congratulatory speech, Kim Young Joo compared “the historic linkage of power transmission lines to repairing blood vessels between the South and North, which were ruptured in May 14th, 1948.” He added that “Completing the construction of Pyonghwa Substation will strengthen the foundation of Korean Peninsula peace. North-South cooperation can flourish by supplying a stable source of electricity to the Kaesung Complex.”