North Korean Economy Watch

Choson Ilbo
12/10/2009

Even as North Korea struggles under UN sanctions and is in the midst of a controversial currency reform aimed at breaking the back of a nascent free market, the reclusive country is apparently in the process of changing laws in order to attract more foreign investment, an expert said Wednesday. It is even offering foreign companies wages cheaper than those paid to North Korean workers at the joint-Korean Kaesong Industrial Complex, according to Jack Pritchard, president of the Korea Economic Institute in Washington D.C.

Pritchard, who visited Pyongyang last month along with Scott Snyder, director of the Center for U.S.-Korea Policy at the Asia Foundation, told reporters in Washington. The North Korean trade department official they met there told them there are no strikes among North Korea’s skilled workers and were very aggressive in luring foreign investment. He added North Korean officials offered wages of 30 euros a month (around US$44), which was lower than the average $57 paid to workers at the Kaesong Industrial Complex. The officials said they were also willing to offer various incentives to foreign companies interested in taking part in the construction of 100,000 homes in Pyongyang. North Korea appeared to be changing its attitude toward foreign countries as part of its goal to become a strong and powerful nation by 2012, he said.

In an article for Global Security [Posted below], the Internet-based provider of military and intelligence information, Snyder wrote, “North Korean colleagues at the Ministry of Trade appeared genuinely surprised and dismayed when we mentioned that UN Security Council Resolution 1874… contains provisions prohibiting companies from making new investments in North Korea.”

Snyder said North Korea’s interest in foreign investment as part of its goal to become a “strong and powerful nation” by 2012 is a new development and one that could play a role in resolving the nuclear stalemate.

But efforts to attract foreign investment and capital over the past 25 years have been a disaster. North Korea announced new regulations in September of 1984 to allow businesses from capitalist countries to operate there. It set up special economic zones in Rajin-Songbong in 1991 and in Sinuiju in 2002. But the Sinuiju project never got beyond the ground-breaking stage due to conflict with China, while empty factories litter Rajin-Sonbong.

North Korea aimed to attract $7 billion worth of foreign investment into Rajin-Sonbong, but actual investment amounted to only $140 million. According to the South Korean government and other sources, there are an estimated 400 foreign businesses operating in North Korea. Most of them are small businesses run by Chinese or North Korean residents in Japan. The shining exception is the Egyptian telecom company Orascom, which offers mobile phone services in the North. “It’s more accurate to say that there are no major foreign businesses operating in North Korea,” said Cho Dong-ho, a professor at Ewha Woman’s University.

North Korea forged its first pact guaranteeing foreign investment with Denmark in September 1996 and signed similar pacts with around 20 countries, including China, Russia, Singapore and Switzerland, as of 2008. There have been consistent reports that businesses in Europe and Southeast Asia were interested in doing business in the North, but hardly any made the move.

Cho Myung-chul, a professor at the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy, who taught economics at Kim Il Sung University in North Korea, said, “The reason why no listed foreign companies are operating in North Korea is because they may end up on the list of businesses subject to U.S. sanctions.” This is one of the reasons why North Korea has tried so desperately to be removed from the U.S. list of terrorism-sponsoring countries.

And even if foreign businesses are interested in investing in North Korea, its lack of infrastructure, including steady power supply and adequate roads and ports, make it impossible to operate factories there. Cho Young-ki, a professor at Korea University, said, “You have to build a power plant if you want to build a factory in North Korea. Cheap labor does not mean businesses will profit there.” The electricity used by the Kaesong Industrial Complex is provided by South Korea, while Hyundai Asan operates its own generator at the North Korean resort in Mt. Kumgang.

Dispatch from Pyongyang: An Offer You Can’t Refuse!
Global Security
Scott Snyder
12/07/2009

Every North Korean seems to have been mobilized for an all-out push to mark their country’s arrival as a “strong and powerful nation” in 2012, which marks the 100th anniversary of Kim Il Sung’s birth, Kim Jong Il’s seventieth birthday, and the thirtieth birthday of Kim Jong Il’s third son and reported successor, Kim Jong-Eun. Pyongyang citizens have cleaned up the city during a 150-day labor campaign, followed by a second 100-day campaign now underway. The Ryugyong Hotel in the middle of Pyongyang, unfinished for over two decades, has been given a facelift courtesy of the Egyptian telecommunications firm Orascom, which expects to have 100,000 mobile phone customers in Pyongyang by the end of the year. But it is still difficult to shake the feeling in Pyongyang that one has walked onto a movie set in between takes. Or that the used car looks good on the outside, but you really don’t know what you might find if you were able to look under the hood or give it a test-drive.

North Korean foreign ministry officials saw United Nations condemnation of their April missile launch as an affront to their sovereignty. This is the ostensible reason the North Koreans have walked away from six party talks. Having conducted a second nuclear test, North Korean officials want to be considered as a nuclear power, choosing instead to “magnanimously” set aside nuclear differences in order to focus on the need to eliminate U.S. “hostile policy” by replacing the armistice with a permanent peace settlement. Essentially, Pyongyang’s new offer–as a “nuclear weapons state”–has shifted from the denuclearization for normalization deal at the core of the 2005 Six Party Joint Statement to “peace first; denuclearization, maybe later.” There was no mention of “action for action” by our North Korean interlocutors.

But the North Koreans are likely to find when Ambassador Stephen Bosworth arrives in Pyongyang next week that the United States will not accept North Korea as a nuclear weapons state. There is virtually no area of agreement between the two governments on the nuclear issue based on public statements made by the two sides thus far, suggesting the likelihood that both sides will face a difficult conversation.

A new component of North Korea’s strategy for achieving its economic and infrastructure goals in the run-up to 2012 is its effort to attract investment from overseas. The Director of North Korea’s newly established Foreign Investment Board unveiled a new plan for attracting equity, contractual, and 100% foreign owned joint venture investments. On paper, the rules incorporate provisions for repatriation of profit, generous tax incentives, and a labor rate of thirty Euros per month. This rate undercuts the compensation of $57.50 per month currently offered at the South Korean-invested Kaesong Industrial Zone. Even more generous was the offer of special concessions in North Korea’s natural resources sector for companies willing to build 100,000 units of new housing in Pyongyang that have already been promised in the run-up to 2012.

North Korean colleagues at the Ministry of Trade appeared genuinely surprised and dismayed when we mentioned that UN Security Council Resolution 1874, which condemned North Korea’s May 25, 2009, nuclear test, contains provisions prohibiting companies from making new investments in the DPRK. This is all the more unfortunate because on paper, North Korean efforts to open its economy through foreign investment are exactly the course that should be encouraged, and North Korea’s goals for 2012 could be advanced significantly with inward investment from companies that might be willing to take the risk, but the nuclear issue stands in the way. This is not to mention that North Korea’s own economic retrenchment and anti-market policies, including the “currency reforms” announced earlier this week, stretch the credibility of the North Korean government to back up these laws. Recent surveys of Chinese investors suggest few demonstration projects for successful investment in North Korea and a high probability of getting scammed or fleeced on the ground.

But the North Korean plea for foreign investment does suggest a potential point of leverage that deserves careful consideration, and that is the possibility of an investment in a strategic commodity that is of special interest to the United States: North Korea’s plutonium stock. During the Clinton administration, former Defense Secretary William Perry led efforts to make similar purchases of nuclear materials from the Ukraine and Kazakhstan, which had inherited stocks of nuclear materials from the breakup of the Soviet Union. These transactions advanced the cause of nuclear non-proliferation by ensuring that these countries would not become nuclear states. A 2004 report of a Task Force on U.S.-Korea Policy co-sponsored by the Center for International Policy and the University of Chicago, also suggested a plutonium “buy-out” proposal for North Korea, despite the obvious moral hazard of appearing to reward North Korea’s bad behavior. Any transaction with North Korea involves moral hazard, and North Korea has already proven that it will sell or sub-contract nuclear materials to the highest bidder. One positive of this approach is that any transaction involving removal of nuclear materials or capabilities from the North would be irreversible, in contrast to past practice of offering irreversible food-aid benefits to North Korea in exchange for participation in multilateral dialogue, but not for irreversible steps toward denuclearization.

In a post-9/11, post-North Korean nuclear test world, the Obama administration must find a formula that facilitates North Korea’s irreversible actions on the path toward denuclearization rather than agreeing to half-measures: North Korea’s immediate focus is on gaining the resources necessary to mark 2012 as a year of accomplishment, yet the North has been highly critical of Lee Myung-bak’s “grand bargain” Proposal. Denuclearization needs to be placed on the North Korean agenda as an accomplishment that North Korea will be able to justify as part of its broader 2012 objective of becoming a “strong and prosperous state.” Unless a new formula can be found by which to bring these two objectives into line with each other, it is likely that the United States and North Korea will continue to talk past each other.

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
NK Brief No.09-11-30-1

In an effort to seek new ways to develop the inter-Korean joint industrial complex in Kaesong, it is expected that the first joint complex between China and Vietnam will be inspected in the middle of next month. According to a high-ranking official in the South Korean Ministry of Unification, “If the Kaesong Industrial Complex (KIC) is to be made into an internationally competitive industrial complex, [we] need to take a close look at the processes and structure of the international market,” and, “In order to develop the KIC, we decided to inspect a foreign industrial complex, and the North has agreed.”

This inspection was agreed upon during the second round of inter-Korean working level talks in June, and is being looked at as a breakthrough in restarting talks between officials from the North and the South. The source added, “The thought is that the inspection will be of a China-Vietnam industrial complex,” and, “If this overseas inspection goes well, the 3-C problem (Communication, Conveyance, Customs) and issues of visits and sojourns by South Koreans in the complex, dormitories for the North Korean workers, the construction of roads for coming to and from work, and other issues will be advanced.”

The inspection team will include 10 officials from North Korea and 10 from the South, and plans to visit the site for ten days beginning on the 12th of next month. The South Korean delegation is expected to include representatives from the Ministry of Unification, the Ministry of Knowledge Economy, Korea Land Corporation, and members of the KIC management committee. The agreement between the two Koreas to inspect an overseas industrial zone is seen as a sign that inter-Korean relations are improving. It appears that North Korea is continuing to work toward improving inter-Korean relations.

At the very least, it looks like this inspection will foster an atmosphere in which Seoul and Pyongyang can resolve all of the problems, listed above, surrounding the KIC. In June of 2007, 14 Koreans, 7 from the North and 7 from the South, spent ten days and nine nights inspecting the joint Chinese-Vietnamese industrial complex, so expectations are that this visit will further boost inter-Korean relations and KIC competitiveness.

This story was also reported in the Joong Ang Ilbo:

The Unification Ministry announced yesterday that 10 officials from ech country will visit China and Vietnam for about 10 days in mid-December. Ministry spokesman Chun Hae-sung said the two Koreas will continue to discuss detailed itineraries and the makeup of the delegations. Chun added that the trip will be financed by the South’s inter-Korean cooperation fund. It is the third such joint trip to overseas industrial sites, but the first during the Lee Myung-bak administration. The previous two trips took place in June 2005 and March 2007.

The two Koreas have held four rounds of mostly fruitless working-level discussions on Kaesong this year and wrangled over land use fees and wage increases. During the second meeting in June, the South proposed a joint overseas trip, and Chun said the North recently agreed. “We hope the trip will allow the two Koreas to build a consensus on stable development of the Kaesong complex,” he said. “The officials will study legal structures, incentives designed to draw investments and customs clearance. We expect Kaesong to grow into a globally competitive complex.”

While it appears intent on improving inter-Korean ties at Kaesong, Seoul is in no hurry to resume suspended tourism to the North’s Mount Kumgang.

UPDATE: The South Korean government is showing no eagerness to resume tours to Kumgnagsan.  Its list of conditions for doing so are listed below in the original post.  The last item in the list (The DPRK needs to provide more transparency about how it spends the money it receives from the Kumgang resort) seems to be the most important to the South Korean government at this point.  According to the Joong Ang Daily:

While it appears intent on improving inter-Korean ties at Kaesong, Seoul is in no hurry to resume suspended tourism to the North’s Mount Kumgang. The South Korean government for the first time tied the Mount Kumgang tours to international sanctions, saying providing cash payments for the program would run counter to an existing United Nations Security Council resolution.

Speaking to reporters late Wednesday, a high-ranking Unification Ministry official said Seoul was reviewing the possibility of replacing cash with goods to pay North Korea for tours to Kumgang. “The issue of compensating the North for the tourism is related to UN Security Council Resolution 1874,” the official said.

He was referring to the resolution adopted in June, following North Korea’s second nuclear test in late May. The resolution states that member states must not provide financial assistance to North Korea, except for “humanitarian and developmental purposes directly addressing civilian needs.” The resolution also says that UN members must not provide “public financial support” for North Korea where such aid “could contribute to the country’s nuclear-related or ballistic missile-related or other [weapons of mass destruction]-related programs or activities.”

The Kumgang tours have been suspended since July of last year after a female South Korean tourist was fatally shot by a North Korean soldier in a nearby restricted zone. Last week, the North sent a message through Hyundai Group, the South Korean operator of the tours, that it wanted to talk to the South about the resumption of the tours, but Seoul has been lukewarm to the overture. The Mount Kumgang tour had been regarded as a major cash cow for North Korea. Since it is difficult to verify the use of cash in the North, the question of the program’s possible violation of the resolution has been raised in the past.

When the North made the proposal through Hyundai, one government official said he was “none too pleased” with the North because it could have sent its message through official channels.

I expressed some skepticism for “alternative payment mechanisms” below.

ORIGINAL POST: The South Korean government does not plan to allow South Korean tourists to return to Mt. Kumgang until the DPRK:

1. Cooperates in an investigation of the shooting of a South Korean tourist last year.

2. Implements measures to prevent a recurrence.

3. Guarantees tourist safety.

Recently, however, the South Korean government added another item to the list:

4. The DPRK needs to provide more transparency about how it spends the money it receives from the Kumgang resort.

According to the Hankyoreh:

The government’s attitude is in line with a statement given by President Lee Myung-bak in an interview with European news channel EuroNews on July 7, in which he namely said that there are suspicions that the massive aid given to North Korea over the last decade had been used to develop nuclear weapons. A government official said they were unable to block all of the cash entering North Korea from tourists spending money at Mt. Kumgang, but the government has concluded that at least the tourism fees should be transparent. Up until the project was suspended last July, Hyundai Asan, the company that operates the Mt. Kumgang tourism project, had sent North Korea 30 dollars per person for same-day tours, 48 dollars for two-day, one-night tours and 80 dollars for three-day, two-night tours. In total, Hyundai Asan had given North Korea an estimated 15 million dollars per year.

How can they achieve “transparency”? The Hankyoreh reports on a couple of ideas:

1. Pay North Korea in goods such as grain or sugar.

2. Open up an escrow account for North Korea that would limit the DPRK government to transferring money only for the import of specific non-military-use items.

I am skeptical that these latter two ideas could accomplish their goal.  If South Korea paid the DPRK in goods (food, fertilizer, equipment), these could simply be resold to China for cash–as previous aid has been.

If South Korea set up an escrow account for the North Korean government which would be restricted somehow, such as prohibitions on the purchase of dual-use technologies, (would I be too cynical to predict that funds in the account would be limited to purchases of goods made in South Korea?) not much changes from the example above–although now there is a greater opportunity for the DPRK to engage in strategic arbitrage.  If I was the DPRK official in charge of the escrow account, I would look for price differences in commodities and capital between South Korea and China.  When I saw a price differential, I would buy the cheap goods in South Korea using the escrow funds and sell them for a profit in China. This could potentially net the DPRK more money than the previous policy proposal, but it does bring the DPRK one step closer to trading futures contracts!

Even if the DPRK did not get into the arbitrage game, there is no getting around fungibility.  For example, if the DPRK spent the entire escrow account on food, it could  steer domestic resources towards more profitable exports and get the cash that way.

Either way, most of the money goes where the leadership wants it to go.

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
NK Brief No.09-11-23-1
11/23/2009

Companies in the inter-Korean joint Kaesong Industrial Complex (KIC) have recorded a growth since North Korea abolished restrictions on traffic to and from the complex, as well as on the number and length of visits by South Korean workers.

According to the South Korean Ministry of Unification, companies in the KIC recorded September exports worth 3.42 million USD, 21.5 percent higher than the 2.82 million USD-worth of goods exported in September 2008. From May 2008 to July of this year, KIC exports were lower than the previous year every single month, but finally showed a 29% jump in August, the first time in 15 months. The increase in the value of the complex’s exports was helped by exports of machinery and household electrical appliances now being produced there.

There are currently 116 companies operating in the KIC, but according to the Ministry of Unification, at the end of September there were only 40,848 North Korean laborers working there, and the problems revolving around hiring more workers are clouding future prospects for the complex. As there are only around 40,000 North Korean workers living in Kaesong City and the surrounding area, it appears that the KIC cannot currently accommodate any new businesses. This poses a dilemma for the 18 construction projects currently underway, and puts on hold another 105 projects that have been allotted land within the KIC, but have not yet begun construction of any factories.

Furthermore, despite the fact that managers in the KIC are trying to maintain a sense of stability in order to attract further orders, if the North decides to close the door on friendly policies, the beginning of next year could see a reversal of the growth. The KIC is, at best, enjoying an ‘uneasy peace.’

KIC officials say that the primary issue at the moment appears to be whether roads to and from the complex will be constructed and whether the inter-Korean agreement reached during the Roh Moo-hyn administration to provide dormitories for 15,000 workers will be implemented. According to a survey of businesses, companies already in operation and/or under construction want to hire an additional 26,000 workers. However, with the current government closely linking the North Korean nuclear issue with inter-Korean relations, the road and dormitory construction, which would cost tens of millions of dollars, would have to be based on progress toward denuclearization, the likelihood of which, at this point, is cloudy.

The incumbent government also seems to put more weight on maintaining the current, relatively stable state of things in the complex than on further developing the group project. One problem they are working to solve is that officials managing the KIC are now prepared to rent out space in one ‘apartment-style factory’ in which many different companies operate production facilities under one roof, but are having difficulties finding willing clients, while current tenants complain about close quarters and a lack of space.

Korea Business Consultants has published their October 2009 newsletter.  You can read it here.

Here is the newsletter table of contents:

COVER
– China eyes DPRK’s mineral wealth
– SinoMining acquires 51% of DPRK’s Hyesan Copper Mine
– Transformation and Modernization of North Korea
– DPRK sees peace pact with US as key to disarmament
– US “willing to engage DPRK directly”
– “DPRK Energy Sector Assistance to – Accompany Progress in… Discussions”
– Billy Graham’s son visits DPRK to deliver aid
– Lang visits Seoul

ECONOMY
– DPRK vows to expand trade
– China poised to give substantial aid
– DPRK films looking for joint producers

INTER KOREAN
– Buddhists from south, north call for reopening of Mount Kumgang tour
– Kaesong factory recognized for quality
– Frayed relations hindering development of mineral resources
– ROK aid to north falls
– Lawmakers call for use of rice surplus as DPRK aid
– Farmers demand rice price stabilization

POLITICAL
– Kenya establishes diplomatic relations with DPRK

CULTURE & SPORTS
– Eriksson to coach DPRK?
– DPRK’s Hong battles for gold at World Gymnastic Championships
– DPRK begins preparations for World Cup

KOREA COMPASS
– Mangyongdae
– Korean Proverb

1. Dutch import DPRK clothing and machinery (via Yonhap):

Dutch companies gave purchase orders to clothing and machinery firms in North Korea following their visit there organized by the Chamber of Commerce of the Netherlands in September, said the Japan-based Choson Sinbo in a dispatch from Pyongyang.

“Exchange and cooperation projects that were agreed to in meetings between the Dutch business delegation and the DPRK Commercial Office are entering the stage of implementation,” the report said. DPRK is short for the North’s official name, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.

“Production by the (North) Korean clothing and machinery trade firms is underway according to the agreements,” it added.

Dutch businesses along with firms from 14 other countries participated in the Pyongyang Autumn International Fair held Sept. 21 to 24. North Korea holds a trade fair twice a year to draw foreign investment and boost technology exchanges.

The Choson Sinbo said the Dutch firms then showed interest in the information technology area, machinery parts and clothing goods and held talks with pertinent North Korean companies, such as the Joson Computer Center and Unha Clothing Company.

After returning home, the Dutch produced a report on North Korea’s international economic relations for distribution at home and in other Western European countries, the newspaper said.

2. Seoul sets DPRK official assistance budget.  According to Yonhap:

According to its 2010 budget plan submitted to the National Assembly unification, foreign affairs and trade committee, the Unification Ministry allocated 1.18 trillion won (US$1.02 billion), about the same as the earmarked budget for this year, for inter-Korean relations and exchanges.

“The ministry has reflected the government’s policy to continue to proceed with humanitarian projects despite the strained phase in inter-Korean relations,” the ministry proposal said.

Broken down to specifics, 616 billion won has been set aside for the possible resumption of rice and fertilizer aid that was suspended after President Lee Myung-bak took office last year. The sum is slightly less than the 718 billion won for this year but remains mostly untouched. The ministry cited the fall of grain prices as the reason for adjustment.

The amount will be worth 400,000 tons of rice and 300,000 tons of fertilizer that had been annually provided to the North over the past decade. But Seoul officials have said they there is no immediate plan yet to resume the rice and fertilizer aid.

The ministry also set aside 18 billion won and 25 billion won to assist North Korea through non-governmental organizations or international agencies like the World Food Program.

For economic projects, including a joint industrial park in the North’s border town of Kaesong, the proposed budget earmarks 144.8 billion won, up 17 percent from the previous year.

“Massive economic cooperation projects were considered in preparation for the possibility of progress in the North Korean nuclear issue,” the ministry said.

It should be pointed out that Seoul has hardly touched its current inter-Korean assistance budget (here and here).  These sorts of policy moves are intended to offer Pyongyang a highly visible carrot.

3. Pyongyang’s 2009 Kaesong antics have unfortunately scared away more foreign direct investment from the Kaesong Zone, despite significant South Korean subsidies.  According to Yonhap:

Romanson Co., a South Korean watchmaker, said Thursday it has no intention to further invest in an inter-Korean industrial complex because of the political risks.

Romanson operates a plant in the industrial park in the North Korean border town of Kaesong, which turns out 40,000 watches per month. In 2005, the company invested 6.1 billion won (US$5.3 million) to build the factory.

4. And the first shipment of NOKO Jeans have arrived in Europe!  Learn more at their Facebook Page.  Here is a photo of the shipment on Flickr.

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
NK Brief No. 09-10-26-1
10/26/2009

Companies in the Kaesong Industrial Complex (KIC) are pushing for permission to transport goods manufactured within the complex along the railway running from Kaesong to Sinuiju and the highways connecting Kaesong, Pyongyang, Sinuiju and the Chinese city of Dandong.

Currently, the majority of goods exported from the KIC flow through the South Korean port of Incheon. They are then distributed elsewhere after arriving at the Chinese port of Dalian. This route is expensive and slow. Shipping by sea costs 1,900 USD per container and takes as many as 10 days, while if the railway infrastructure was built up between Kaesong and Sinuiju, both the cost and the time could be significantly reduced.

Seventeen percent of Kaesong goods are exported not only to China, but to Europe, the Middle East and Russia. In the mid- to long-term, Kaesong needs to be connected with Rajin-Sunbong, so that goods can be distributed throughout Russia and Europe via the Trans-Siberian Railway. In order to make this happen, companies within the KIC are seeking to attract foreign joint-ventures and investments while at the same time lobbying North Korean authorities in an effort to convince them of the need for such land transportation infrastructure.

These companies are also pushing for improvements in the highway spanning the 160 km between the KIC and Pyongyang and the injection of KIC goods into the Pyongyang markets, where they could compete with Chinese imports. One part of this effort is promoting the attachment of ‘Made In DPRK’ labels to goods produced in these factories.

It appears that North Korean authorities have been receptive to these ideas, but questions still remain on the logistics of the project. One source has said that the North Korean Central Special Direct General Bureau has shown interest recently in the idea of including KIC goods in the annual Pyongyang International Trade Fair.

On the one hand, the number of North Korean workers in the KIC has now topped 40,000; but on the other hand, given the number and size of the factories in the complex, the factories are about 26,000 workers short of full capacity. The effort to find suitable workers means that now people from Sariwon, Pyongyang and Hamheung have been brought in. Companies in the KIC are adamant that construction of dormitories in the complex needs to be sped up. At the same time, North Korean authorities are demanding that workers be paid according to their level of education, job description, and experience.

For the first time in 13 months, trade between the two Koreas began to rise again. In September 2009, inter-Korean trade amounted to 173.17 million USD, a 2.6 percent rise over the 166.86 million USD recorded in 2008. The economy has shown signs of recovery since last July, and as inter-Korean relations have inched toward improvement, trade has also risen.

The article was not as informative as I hoped.  But here are a few lines that I thought were interesting:

Q: When you were talking with Kim Jong Il, was it your impression that he wants more investment from South Korea? That he wants to do more business with your country?

A: He showed a lot of enthusiasm. He said he hopes the North and South Korean government can talk things through so to have a lot of South Korean companies enter the North, and he also said that since they have the natural resources and the South has the skills to sell, if both sides work together he expects the North and South to prosper.

Comment: There is a vast literature on the relationship between natural resources, economic growth, and conflict.  Natural resources tend to be the kiss of death for widespread economic development and “democracy.” Unfortunately, given the way the North Korean system is managed, I would expect most of the revenues from increased natural resources exports to go to the DPRK leadership with little tangible benefit to the North Korean people.

The Kaesong industrial complex, the joint facility run by North and South, what is the future of that complex?

Currently we are only operating the first block, but I am sure that once things get settled down by both governments, we have many plans for the second block as well. A hotel needs to be built. We need to have hospitals, post offices, so I am expecting gradually that we will expand business there.

I am more optimistic about the Kaesong Zone than I am about the DPRK’s desire for increasing natural resource exports because the workers at Kaesong actually process resources to build the textiles.  As a result, their productivity has increased over time and the workers have been able to capture some of that extra value themselves in the form of higher incomes (although at a ridiculously steep “tax rate” since the DPRK government keeps the vast majority of their salaries).  If Kaesong was closed down the workers would certainly be worse off, and so would all of those who depend on them.  Despite the DPRK’s efforts to increase tensions this year, business never closed down at Kaesong.  It could be that the DPRK leadership now considers Kaesong too big to fail.

Read the full interview below:
Doing business in North Korea
CNN
10/19/2009

According to Yonhap:

Inter-Korean trade grew for the first time in 13 months in September amid improving global economic conditions and eased cross-border tensions, customs data showed Monday.

According to data compiled by the Korea Customs Service, trade between South and North Korea amounted to US$173.17 million last month, up 2.6 percent from a year earlier when the global financial turbulence first began following the collapse of Lehman Brothers.

Also according to Yonhap however, the DPRK and RoK failed to agree on an aid-for-family reunions deal:

The two Koreas on Friday ended their day-long negotiations over further cross-border family reunions and other humanitarian issues without reaching any concrete agreement, with Pyongyang asking for resumption of aid by Seoul, officials said.

In the meeting arranged by Red Cross offices from both sides, South Korea proposed holding new rounds of reunions for families separated by the 1950-53 Korean War next month in both Seoul and Pyongyang, and again around February at the North’s Mount Kumgang resort.

But aid is not off the table.  According to the Korea Times today:

The government has been reviewing whether to subsidize non-government organizations through the inter-Korean cooperation fund in order to provide aid to North Korea, according to the Ministry of Unification, Monday.

“The government is mainly checking plans to offer health and medical care,” ministry spokesman Chun Hae-sung told reporters. “But details have yet to be determined.”

Chun reiterated that Seoul is sticking to its existing stance that it will provide North Korea with humanitarian assistance regardless of the political climate.

According to government sources, the subsidy would total less than 1 billion won (about $853,000).

The plan, however, is not related to North Korea’s request for humanitarian aid made during the inter-Korean Red Cross talks last Friday, the sources said.

Seoul has also been reviewing whether to provide the reclusive state with government-level support such as food and fertilizer aid, according to ministry officials.

The inter-Korean cooperation fund has served as a lifeline for cross-border business projects, including the Gaeseong Industrial Complex and the Mt. Geumgang tourism program, which has been suspended.

It is also a main source of South Korea’s economic aid to the impoverished North.

The cash pot was introduced in 1990 in order to boost personal exchanges, economic cooperation and trust-building between the two Koreas.

In August, the ministry approved a plan to subsidize 10 civic groups with approximately 3.6 billion won ($3 million) from the fund for relief activities involving North Korean babies, pregnant women and other social minorities.

The government originally planned to distribute the money starting from April but North Korea’s provocations postponed the plan.

As reported before, the South Korean government has spent just 5% of the funds it budgeted for inter-Korean projects this year.

At the same time North Korea is soliciting aid from South Korean and Western religious origanizations.  See here, here, and here in just the last few days.

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
NK Brief No. 09-30-1
9/30/2009

North Korean laborers in the Kaesong Industrial Complex are gaining attention as they are awarded with the government’s certificate of high quality, a certification difficult for even South Korean companies to earn. It is very rare for the North Koreans to earn in only about one year what it takes South Korean small and mid-sized businesses 2~3 years to get.

On September 25, the Korea Chamber of Commerce and Industry presented the food container-producing Sungrim factory, located in the KIC, with the Chamber’s ‘Single PPM Quality Certification’. This certification is awarded to the company that, during the last six months, have found less than 10 out of 1,000,000 products (0.001%, 10PPM) to be defective. To date, only 1,664 factories throughout Korea have earned the certificate, and this is the first time it has been awarded to a factory in the Kaesong Industrial Complex.

The Sungrim factory launched a ‘Single PPM’ project to boost the quality of its output in July of last year, and received the Korea Chamber of Commerce and Industry’s award just 14 months later. The KIC Sungrim factory was opened in April 2008, and manufactures food container lids for the CJ Corporation. It employs 88 North Korean workers and 3 South Korean supervisors.

When the factory first opened, the skill level of the workers was considerably lower than counterparts elsewhere, and this was reflected in the dissatisfaction of customers and large number of defective products. It appeared that workers were indoctrinated with the North Korean system of equality, in which production numbers were less important than providing meals, exercise facilities, and other benefits. However, as the workers became more loyal to the company, their efficiency improved as well, and employees even began repairing their own equipment in the event of a failure. The CJ management recognized this, and allowed the North Korean laborers to improve at their own pace, sparing no expense to support their efforts.

The result was that the factory which had produced as many as 650 defective goods per month at the beginning was able to reduce the number of maligned goods to 15 within a year, and eventually down to 1.8 PPM. This placed the factory more than 17 times higher than the 31.3 PPM average for the 111 companies receiving one of Korcham’s three certificates (Single PPM, 100 PPM, and 1000 PPM).