North Korean Economy Watch

Lankov writes in the Korea Times about the DPRK’s various Special Economic Zones:

In early June, the governments of China and North Korea declared that they would work to develop two new special economic zones (SEZs). One zone is to be situated in the small port city of Raseon, on the eastern coast of South Korea, just 20 kilometers from the nearest crossing to China. Another zone will be developed on the unremarkable sandy island of Hwanggumpyong, in the vicinity of Sinuiju, the largest city on the border (some three quarters of trade between the two countries pass through this city).

One cannot be surprised by this initiative as talk of new SEZs “soon to be established” has been around for over a decade. There is little doubt that the North Korean government is very interested in the idea of SEZs. Unfortunately, this interest does not necessary mean that the North Korean authorities are willing to make the concessions that would allow the SEZs to operate efficiently.

The history of North Korean SEZs is essentially the history of frequent failures and occasional partial successes. The first attempt to create a SEZ took place in 1991, when the North Korean government established a SEZ in the remote northwestern corner of the country. The Raseon SEZ, as it has now become known, is located where the borders of China, Russia and North Korea meet.

Read the remainder of the story below:
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Pictured above (Google Earth): Growth of the Kaesong Industrial Center (Apr. 2004, Jan. 2006, Sept. 2009)

According to Yonhap:

South Korean factories in an industrial complex in North Korea produced goods worth US$34.7 million in March, setting a monthly output record since the two Koreas launched the zone in 2004, Seoul’s Unification Ministry said Wednesday.

The complex, a key symbol of rapprochement between the two Koreas, combines the South’s technology and management expertise with the North’s cheap labor.

More than 46,000 North Koreans work for about 120 South Korean firms operating in the North Korean border city of Kaesong to produce clothes, utensils, watches and other low-tech goods.

The two divided Koreas managed to maintain the zone despite a chill in their relations over the North’s two deadly attacks on the South last year that killed 50 South Koreans.

A couple of days ago I posted a story about the growth in number of North Korean workers at the complex.

UPDATE (2011-5-27): The Wall Street Journal’s Korea Real-Time offers some 2010 joint-Korean trade and aid umbers:

For the full year, general trade between the two Koreas amounted to $118 million, down 54% from $256 million in 2009.

But the joint industrial complex at Kaesong, a city just inside North Korea on the west side of the inter-Korean border, continued to flourish.

The volume of trade at the Kaesong Industrial Complex, goods moving into the approximately 120 factories there and then being shipped back south after North Korean workers added value, rose 54% to $1.44 billion last year from $941 million in 2009.

As part of the penalties following the Cheonan incident, the South Korean government limited the number of South Koreans who could stay at the Kaesong complex. The result: one-day visits to the complex soared, lifting the total number of South Koreans who visited the North.

For all of 2010, 130,119 South Koreans went to the North while just 130 North Koreans visited the South. In 2009, 120,616 South Koreans went to the North and 246 North Koreans visited the South.

South Korea’s assistance to North Korea also dropped sharply last year, to 30.1 bililon won from 77.5 billion won a year earlier. The South’s direct government assistance was 8 billion won, down from 10.4 billion won in 2009.

Private assistance from South Korea also fell to 20 billion won in 2010, from 37.7 billion won in 2009.

Read the full story here:
Production at Koreas’ industrial complex sets monthly record
Yonhap
2011-5-18

According ot the Choson Ilbo:

The number of North Korean workers at the Kaesong Industrial Complex has been growing even as Seoul halted all other trade with the North after deadly attacks on the Navy corvette Cheonan and Yeonpyeong Island last year.

There were 46,420 North Korean workers at the industrial park at the end of February, up 11 percent from 42,415 a year ago, according to the Unification Ministry on Sunday. This represents a monthly increase of 334. The industrial park’s output rose from $256.47 million in 2009 to US$323.32 million last year.

Why the increase?

Since all other inter-Korean trade has been suspended, the Kaesong Industrial Complex is the sole window for the North to obtain a steady legal supply of hard cash. The monthly wage of workers at the complex averages at around $100, but they only see between 30 and 50 percent while the rest goes to the regime.

“The workers get their wages in North Korean won or daily necessity coupons, and the North Korean authorities take all the dollars,” said a North Korean source. That amounts to some $4.6 million every month.

If the number of workers keeps increasing at the same rate, the North is expected to earn nearly $60 million this year. With the sources of hard currency exhausted, the North finds it profitable to assign even one more workers to the complex, but that also benefits the South Korean firms there. “North Korean worker wages are far more competitive than those in China and Southeast Asia,” said a staffer with an apparel firm at the complex. “At present we employ 1,200 North Korean workers, and the more we employ, the more profit we can make.”

And Lee Im-dong, a former secretary-general of the businesses association at the complex, said, “We have asked the North Korean authorities for additional manpower of 20,000. As far as the Kaesong Industrial Complex is concerned, our interests completely coincide with those of North Korea.”

The supply of additional workers is not easy. The available labor force in Kaesong and vicinity was already exhausted several years ago, so there is even a joke that “all the healthy in Kaesong now work at the industrial park.” The authorities have turned old buildings in Kaesong into boarding houses for workers recruited from Pyongyang, Pyongan and Hamgyong provinces, said the source.

“The fact that the North is going extra mile to bring more workers to Kaesong shows how desperately it needs dollars,” opined the Unification Ministry official.

Read the full article here:
N.Korea Keeps Sending More Workers to Kaesong Complex
Choson Ilbo
2011-5-17

According to Yonhap:

A daily average of more than 600 South Korean workers are currently staying at the Kaesong Industrial Complex in North Korea, up from the 500-level in the past several months, according to a Seoul ministry Sunday.

The increase reflects a reduction in military tensions between the two Koreas, officials at the Unification Ministry that handles inter-Korean affairs said.

The ministry’s data showed that around 650 South Koreans stay at the industrial park, located just north of the inter-Korean border, per day starting last month.

“With regard to the number of production-related manpower, we are granting permission to stay (there) with more flexibility starting in the middle of April,” a ministry official said, requesting anonymity. “The number is expected to gradually increase down the road as well.”

He said the ministry’s flexible stance is attributable to petitions from companies in the Kaesong complex and the alleviation of security concerns of South Korean workers as inter-Korean tensions have eased a bit.

Read the full story here:
Number of S. Koreans at Kaesong rebounds amid letup in tension
Yonhap
2011-5-8

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
NK Brief (11-04-20)

Railroad services to Kaesong Industrial Complex on the Gyeongui Line increased from 21 to 23 times a day from April. Mainly a seasonal change, the last departure service into Kaesong has been pushed back to 5:00 pm from 4:30 pm and the arrival time also changed accordingly from 5:00 pm to 5:40 pm.

With the half of the Mount Kumgang tours, the Donghae Line is running on a more flexible schedule based on demand. Currently both lines are operating. There are 417 South Korean citizens currently residing in North Korea, with the majority (404 people) at the Kaesong Industrial Complex.

According to the Export-Import Bank of Korea, the volume of loans by the businesses operating economic cooperation with North Korea increased over the years, from 10.8 billion KRW in 2008, to 15.4 billion KRW in 2009, and 41.6 billion KRW in 2010. The increase comes as a surprise considering the enforcement of sanctions against the North from the Cheonan incident caused all inter-Korean exchanges and cooperation to discontinue except for the KIC.

The Export-Import Bank (Exim Bank) in coordination with the Ministry of Unification has continued to provide loans to businesses engaged in inter-Korean cooperation through a special loan program called, “Special Economic Exchanges and Cooperation Loan.” Special consideration was given to these small businesses suffering since the imposition of government sanctions.

Last year, a total of 25 businesses (11 economic cooperation-related, 13 exchange-related) received special loans from the Exim Bank. The loans were used mainly for stabilizing the business management to cover various business expenses including tariffs, shipping, material, distribution, manufacturing and labor costs, as well as other additional taxes and interests.

On the other hand, North Korea’s Korean Asia-Pacific Peace Committee informed Hyundai that it would retract the company’s monopoly over the tour of Mt. Kumgang, which was supposed to expire in 2028. Hyundai Asan expressed regret over the North’s decision by saying, “The agreements that were reached on Mt. Kumgang tourism must be honored and cannot be declared void or lose their validity on unilateral notification. The North’s statement should be withdrawn.”

The spokesperson of Hyundai also stated, “The root of this problem is caused by the stalled tourism project. The only solution is to resume the tours to Mt. Kumgang at the earliest time possible.” It further added its intention of working closely with the South Korean government to restart the tours. Since the suspension of Mt. Kumgang tours after a female tourist was shot and killed in July 2008, Hyundai Asan has been hitting dead ends with the project.

Regarding its plan to retract Hyundai, North Korea is pointing the finger at the “South Korean government’s vicious North Korea policy.” According to North’s Uriminzokkiri website, terminating Hyundai’s monopoly rights was an “inevitable decision based on low prospect for resuming the tours of Mount Kumkang.” It further added, “Although the South Korean government is condemning our decision as against international norms, the situation is compelling the DPRK to exercise our rights which is in accordance with domestic and international laws.”

The Congressional Research Service has published an update to its paper on the Kaesong Industrial Complex.

You can download the paper here (PDF).

You can download other CRS reports on North Korea at my CRS Reports Page.

Below is the paper’s summary:

This purpose of this report is to provide an overview of the role, purposes, and results of the Kaesong Industrial Complex (KIC) and examine U.S. interests, policy issues, options, and legislation. The KIC is a six-year old industrial park located in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK or North Korea) just across the demilitarized zone from South Korea. As of the end of 2010, over 120 medium-sized South Korean companies were employing over 47,000 North Korean workers to manufacture products in Kaesong. The facility, which in 2010 produced $323 million in output, has the land and infrastructure to house two to three times as many firms and workers. Products vary widely, and include clothing and textiles (71 firms), kitchen utensils (4 firms), auto parts (4 firms), semiconductor parts (2 firms), and toner cartridges (1 firm).

Despite a rise in tensions between North and South Korea since early 2008, the complex has continued to operate and expand. The KIC was not shut down in 2010 despite two violent incidents between the two Koreas that year: the March sinking of a South Korean naval vessel, the Cheonan, which was found to be caused by a North Korean torpedo, and North Korea’s artillery attack on a South Korean island in November. Indeed, the complex has become virtually the last vestige of inter-Korean cooperation. After the Cheonan sinking, South Korea announced it would cut off all inter-Korean economic relations except the Kaesong complex. It also has reduced the number of South Korean workers—primarily government officials and business managers—at the complex because of worries about them being taken hostage by North Korea.

The KIC represents a dilemma for U.S. and South Korean policymakers. On the one hand, the project provides an ongoing revenue stream to the Kim Jong-il regime in Pyongyang, by virtue of the share the government takes from the salaries paid to North Korean workers. South Korean and U.S. officials estimate this revenue stream to be around $20 million per year. On the other hand, the KIC arguably helps maintain stability on the Peninsula and provides a possible beachhead for market reforms in the DPRK that could eventually spill over to areas outside the park and expose tens of thousands of North Koreans to outside influences, market-oriented businesses, and incentives.

The United States has limited direct involvement in the KIC, which the United States has officially supported since its conception. At present, no U.S. companies have invested in the Kaesong complex, though a number of South Korean officials have expressed a desire to attract U.S. investment. U.S. government approval is needed for South Korean firms to ship to the KIC certain U.S.-made equipment currently under U.S. export controls. The Korea-U.S. Free Trade Agreement (KORUS FTA), which has yet to be submitted to Congress for approval, provides for a Committee on Outward Processing Zones (OPZ) to be formed and to consider whether zones such as the KIC will receive preferential treatment under the FTA. Although the KORUS FTA says that the Executive branch will seek “legislative approval” for any changes to the agreement, Congress’s precise role in accepting or rejecting these changes is not clear.

Another issue raised by the KIC is whether components made in the complex can enter the United States if they are incorporated into products that are manufactured in South Korea and that qualify as originating in South Korea. This possibility is likely to be determined mainly by the KIC’s evolution; the more that is produced in the complex, the more products are likely to enter South Korea’s supply chain.

According to Yonhap:

The monthly production from the South Korea-invested industrial park in North Korea exceeded US$30 million for the first time since tension escalated over the North’s torpedoing of a South Korean navy ship a year ago, the government said Sunday.

The Kaesong industrial complex produced $31.05 million worth of products in January, up 6.7 percent from $29.09 million in December, the Unification Ministry said.

It was the first time that the monthly production from the Kaesong complex topped $30 million since the attack took place in March last year. The complex produced $30.79 million worth of products that month.

Seoul suspended all cross-border trade after a multinational investigation found North Korea responsible for the March sinking of the warship Cheonan. Relations between the divided countries hit the worst point in more than a decade when the North shelled the South Korean island of Yeonpyeong in November.

Despite the high tension, the annual production at the complex increased 26 percent to $323.32 million last year compared to a year earlier.

The rise appears to be due to the steady increase of North Koreans working in the complex.

A total of 46,194 North Koreans, up from 42,397 in January last year, now work in the communist state’s border town of Kaesong, providing labor for South Korean firms that produce goods such as clothes, utensils and watches.

The factory park was a result of the first inter-Korean summit that took place in Pyongyang in 2000. More than 120 South Korean firms operate in Kaesong, providing capital and know-how in exchange for cheap labor.

Previous posts about the Cheonan incident are here.

Previous posts about the Kaesong Industrial Zone are here.

Read the full story here:
Production at Kaesong complex returns to $30 million mark
Yonhap
3/20/2011

According to the Daily NK:

This year, the North Korean authorities have been cracking down on the sale and distribution of products, tools and materials coming out of the Kaesong Industrial Complex. As a result, such Korean goods, formerly an expensive but popular choice in Hwanghae and South Pyongan Provinces, are now hard to find in markets.

A source from South Pyongan Province who spoke with The Daily NK in China explained, “Right up until last year, literally anything being made in the Kaesong Complex was available in the market, including clocks, metal, screws, clothes, underwear, toys and parts of electronics. However, the amounts have fallen dramatically since regulations were strengthened.”

The reason behind the regulations is unclear, however; the source suggested it could only be because of deteriorating inter-Korean relations.

Regardless, the source went on, “Nowadays, revealing the fact you sell those Kaesong Complex goods results in high fines and puts you in a bind” Therefore, he went on, “Only bread (Choco Pies), stainless steel or ceramic bowls and underwear are being sold.”

One consequence of the crackdown is that it makes the sale of other South Korean products smuggled in from China equally difficult. Albeit with some provincial differences, clothes and electronics cannot now be displayed on stalls, and must be sold in alley markets in secret.

A source from Shinuiju explained, “Market watch guards go around markets every day inspecting stalls with no notice; their investigation into South Korean products is really severe.” He explained, “If they find goods with Korean writing on, they confiscate them and give them back after two or three days later, after fines have been paid.”

“I hear there was a decree from above reinforcing crackdowns, but won’t this only lead to bribes?” the source pointed out.

Even when readily available, South Korean products are at the top of the price range, so most average families cannot afford them; one Choco Pie, a circular, individually wrapped chocolate cake made famous by the movie “JSA”, is between 180 and 200 won, a set of women’s underwear is 90,000 won, and a set of roughly ten plates, five or six small bowls and some coffee cups is around 250,000 won.

The source reported, “Due to the severe regulations, some traders sell them at home or in secret, hiding the goods behind the curtain.”

Interestingly, one South Korean official with the Kaesong Industrial Complex told the Daily NK that product leakage is not a problem at Kaesong, saying, “There have been almost no cases of complete products leaking out, but it is possible for stock, tools or things provided to workers like Choco Pies. However, the leaks are not enough to affect factory management.

And yet, one defector who used to be a worker in a shoe factory in charge of testing product quality explained that the siphoning off of materials, complete products, tools and other things is common among North Korean workers.

“The way they hide things and bring them out of the factory is really expert. I sometimes put up to 20 pairs of shoes on my body and came out of the factory. If you wear a long, thick winter coat then it is not so remarkable. Sometimes we did it in collusion with the factory manager.”

Read the full story here:
South Korean Products Disappear from Markets
Daily NK
Park Jun Hyeong and Mok Yong Jae
2010-3-10

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
NK Brief No. 11-03-07
3/7/2011

The number of male workers in Kaesong Industrial Complex (KIC) increased according to the Ministry of Unification (MOU). Since the establishment of the complex, women made up 84-85 percent of the total work staff. But from last May, the number fell below 80 percent and currently is around 74 percent.

In contrast, the number of male workers steadily increased from 15 percent from last year to 26 percent, an increase of over 10 percent.

Out of the new hires of all of last year, 56 percent were male. Even sewing factories generally dominated by female employees began to accept male workers.

Many of the South Korean companies in Kaesong preferred young female workers over male for higher work efficiency; but with declining manpower, more male workers are being hired than previously.

An official from the MOU stated, “We are facing difficulties with labor supply lately,” and added, “Many are even coming from Pyongyang in addition to the nearby areas of Kaesong.”

The total production output of Kaesong Complex reached 323.32 million USD last year, an increase of 26 percent against the previous year.

Kaesong is a popular employment spot for the North Koreans due to its higher wages and extra perks including coupons exchangeable for daily necessities and free coffee and snacks.

The MOU official also noted that even in times of troubled inter-Korean relations, North Korean officials and workers on several occasions have expressed their hopes for the KIC to continue. “KIC is a space we acquired from the North for the purpose of fulfilling our national strategy. We need to be more proactive in utilizing this opportunity to its full potential.”

On the other hand, North Korea sent a letter proposing working-level talks on the industrial complex to the South earlier last month. In the letter the North expressed, “We hope for your active support to resume the working-level talks of the Kaesong Industrial Complex at the earliest possible date to revitalize the currently stagnant business. We look forward to your positive response.”

On January 8, the DPRK officially proposed for the resumption of KIC working-level talks at the earliest possible date through a statement made by the spokesperson of the Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of Korea. Specifically, late January or early February was suggested.

On January 18, the Central Special Zone Development Guidance of North Korea also proposed through its representative for working-level talks related to the KIC to be held in Kaesong on February 9.

The request from the DPRK is analyzed to be an attempt to relax restrictions prohibiting new businesses and investments in the KIC from the “May 24 Sanctions” that the South Korean government put into effect in 2010 following the sinking of the South Korean naval corvette Cheonan in March of last year.

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
NK Brief No.11-02-18
2/18/2011

Despite the severed inter-Korean relations, Kaesong Industrial Complex related trade reached USD 1,442,860,000, surpassing last year’s figure (USD 940 million) by 53.4 percent.

Trade at Kaesong continuously rose since 2004, almost reaching USD 1 billion by 2009. Then it sharply jumped over the one billion mark last year in 2010.

A closer look at the numbers is as follows: 2004 (USD 41.69 million); 2005 (USD 176.74 million); 2006 (USD 298.79 million); 2007 (USD 440.68 million); 2008 (USD 884.40 million); 2009 (USD 940.55 million); 2010 (USD 1.44 billion).

This rise in trade brought the total trade figure up to USD 1.912 billion by 2010, an increase of 13.9 percent against last year’s total of USD 1.679 billion.

The number of total workers in North Korea reached 42,397 in March 2010, steadily increased to 44,958 in October, and reached 45,332 by November.

However, after the Cheonan incident, South Korea issued a suspension on inter-Korean trade, causing a drop in general trade and processing on commission.

General trade declined by 54 percent from 2009 to USD 117, 860, 000 while processing on commission was down by 22.5 percent to USD 317, 560, 000.

Consequently, the composition of the inter-Korean trade changed, contributing to the proportion of the trade in Kaesong to increase to 75.5 percent from 56 percent in 2009. General trade on the other hand, fell from 15.3 percent to 6.2 percent and processing on commission dropped from 24.4 percent to 16.6 percent from 2009.

In addition, commercial transactions — such as general trade and processing on commission — in Kaesong comprised 98.8 percent of total inter-Korean exchange while noncommercial activities like humanitarian assistance only reached 1.2 percent.

Also in 2010, a total of 13,119 South Koreans visited North Korea, which is an increase of 7.9 percent from the previous year (12,616 people). This is due to the rise in the number of people visiting the Kaesong Industrial Complex.

According to the Ministry of Unification, 94.5 percent (123,023) of the total visitors to the DPRK had involvement with the Kaesong Industrial Complex. This is an increase of 7.9 percent from 2009 (111,811 people).

In comparison, most of the noneconomic related visits to the DPRK declined since the Cheonan incident including socio-cultural exchanges and humanitarian assistance. With the implementation of the May 24 sanctions against North Korea, noneconomic related visitation to North Korea decreased 23 percent from 2,313 people to 1,773 from the previous year.