North Korean Economy Watch

UPDATE: Marcus Noland discussed this subject with the Daily NK.  Joshua has some thoughts at One Free Korea.

ORIGINAL POST: Hyundai Asan (HA) was having a good year up through July 2008.  At that point, inter-Korean trade volume had experienced a 23% year-over-year  increase—reaching US$880 million.   Commercial trade comprised 94% of this volume, up from 78%, and the number of firms conducting inter-Korean trade reached 526, up from 324.

…and then a South Korean tourist was shot by North Korean soldiers at HA’s flagship project, the Kumgang tourist resort.  Shortly after the shooting, the South Korean government halted tourism to Kumgangsan until the DPRK agreed to launch a joint investigation into the shooting and guaranteed the safety of tourists—which never happened.  As a result, the newly constructed six-star “Kumgang Ananti Golf and Spa Resort” desigend by Korean- American architect Min Sung Jin, sits unused, and revenues at HA are likely to fall to as low as 220 billion won (US$165 million), from about 300 billion won last year (Yonhap).

Despite the troubles at Kumgangsan, the joint-Korean projects on the west coast (Kaesong Industrial Zone and Kaesong tourism) remained unaffected.  The Kaesong Industrial Zone, the most ambitious and risky project, has continued to receive support from both the North and South Korean governments, and the Kaesong tours have grossed the North Korean government nearly $10 million since the project was launched in December 2007. 

Since I operate on the assumption that people will never turn down free money, even communist governments, I have been skeptical that the DPRK would jeopardize these investments.  As of this week, however, it looks like my assumption is wrong.  It seems the DPRK remains intent to cut off its nose to spite its face.  On November 9, 2008:

A North Korean military team visited an inter-Korean industrial complex in Gaeseong, North Korea, last week to check personnel and facilities there.

Local experts speculated that the unprecedented survey is aimed at putting pressure on the South, whose civic groups continue to send propaganda fliers containing criticism of the North’s dictatorship.

Five military officials looked around the industrial park, Moon Moo-hong, chairman of the Kaesong Indutrial District Management Committee (KIDMAC), said.

“They made the rounds of 11 companies in the complex in the morning and asked about the amount of investment, capital, the number of workers, their salaries and working conditions,” he said.

The officials, in military uniforms, asked about how long it would take to empty the complex several times during the six-hour inspection, he added.

They did not show an amicable attitude either, saying they were not visiting to give out business cards and they had nothing to talk about.

A government official asking to remain anonymous said the visit can be read as a threat to drive out South Korean companies from the complex. (Korea Times)

Who was leading the military delegation? Lt. General Kim Yong Chol:

Kim is widely known as Pyongyang’s chief delegate to inter-Korean general-level talks in South Korea, but this time, he assumed the title of policy chief of the National Defense Committee, the most powerful organization in the North. While inspecting infrastructure and companies at the complex, he reportedly asked, “How long would it take for South Korean companies to pack up and go home?” (Donga Ilbo)

Economically, this is a terrible move:

The complex employs 35,000 North Korean workers who earn 55 dollars a month (63 dollars including social insurance), an amount considered extremely high by North Korean standards. Though the communist regime deducts a significant sum from their salaries, workers there are clearly healthier and better fed than their malnourished neighbors. If each of these workers is assumed to be part of a family of four, the complex feeds 140,000 North Koreans. (Donga Ilbo)

Yet yesterday, the implicit threat to close the border was made explicit:

[On] Wednesday, North Korea’s military threatened to “strictly restrict and cut off” all overland passage through the military demarcation line starting Dec. 1 in protest over Seoul’s “confrontational” policy. (Yonhap)

and

A Red Cross office in the North with the only civilian phone link will shut. (BBC)

Hyundai Asan Corp. said that it has yet to receive an official notice from North Korea on the suspension of its tour program to a historic city in the North, despite Pyongyang’s announcement to restrict border crossings. (Yonhap)

So what has made the DPRK so angry that its leaders are willing to take such drastic action?  Judging only from the public statments by the DPRK’s military spokesmen, it seems to be the proliferation of balloons and anti-Kim Jong il leaflets that human rights groups are sending across the DMZ.   

This seems bizarre because balloons have been crossing the DMZ for decades.  The North Korean villages along the DMZ know exactly how to deal with these leaflets and it is fairly routine for work groups to be organized to go pick them up.  Additionally, North Korea’s leaders are smart enough to know that the South Korean government has no legal authority to prevent its citizens from undertaking these activities.  So the DPRK’s ultimate goals here must be greater than stopping human rights groups from sending the balloons.

Ironically, it is the same human rights groups that are sending the balloons across the border who are most vocal about closing down the Kaesong Industrial Zone and ending the Kaesong tourism project. This is because they believe that the revenues generated by these projects are diverted to support the government with little going to the actual workers.  If the North Korean government ends these inter-Korean projects it will be delivering its most vocal opponents a double victory—the DPRK will end up with more balloons and less South Korean money.  If I was in the business of sending balloons across the DMZ, I would be sending out fundraising letters right now telling potential donors how effective my strategy is. 

Anyhow, if all of this was not strange enough, North Korea has slowed dismantling of the Yongbyon reactor (again), claiming the US owes it energy aid, and asserted that they never agreed to a nuclear verification deal which gives inspectors permission to collect samples and remove them from the country for analys.  Are they just trying to squeeze more concessions out of the Six-Party talks? Or is this a calculated political strategy?

The South Korean government seems to have made some significant changes to the way business is to be conducted between themselves and the North.  It seems regulations have been eased on South Korean companies seeking permission to operate in the North—and some new subsidies have been put on the table.

From the Korea Times:

The government Tuesday abolished a system under which companies here must receive a permit to do business in North Korea.

As a result, companies which have been seeking to operate in the reclusive state would see simplified procedures when they start inter-Korean projects.

The Cabinet approved revisions of the law governing trade and cooperation between South and North Korea.

Under the previous licensing system, a permit for both companies and projects were necessary.

But now, companies have to get approval for their projects only and inter-Korean cooperation programs designated by a presidential decree can proceed without the approval.

If firms get the license in a dishonest way, the government can cancel it.

In a bid to diversify trade between the two Koreas, the revision allows services and intangible things as well as goods to be exchanged.

The government also approved a revision bill to encourage foreign investors to invest in inter-Korean trade.

It says that foreigners who invest $10 million or more can get some incentives such as cash grants.

The legislation on South-North cooperation was introduced in 1990 to support exchanges and cooperation between the two Koreas.

The Ministry of Unification has a committee under itself to coordinate related policies and make a decision on important inter-Korean cooperation issues.

To promote economic, cultural and social exchange projects, a permit from the minister has been required.

If caught violating the law, the person will be sentenced to up to three years imprisonment or fined up to 10 million won ($6,770).

Read the full article here:
Inter-Korean Business Procedures Simplified
Korea Times
Kim Sue-young
10/28/2008

According to Yonhap:

North Korea has begun to more harshly censor South Korean newspapers subscribed to by firms operating in the inter-Korean Kaesong industrial complex, apparently to prevent workers there from reading reports on their leader Kim Jong-il’s health, officials said Monday.

“The North began to allow South Korean dailies to pass through customs only after cutting out articles critical of the country as of Oct. 20,” a Unification Ministry official told reporters on condition of anonymity.

About 30 copies of nine different papers cross the inter-Korean border every day for delivery to the Kaesong Industrial District Management Committee in the complex, a civilian administrative body of South Korean firms there, according to the official.

The North is strictly enforcing customs regulations barring the entry of overseas publications critical of Pyongyang, the official said.

It is not known exactly what types of articles have been censored by the North, but officials say the measure could be related to recent reports that Kim is ailing.

South Koreans are forbidden to carry the newspapers when they leave the office, but some have received warnings from North Korean authorities for violating the rule, according to the Unification Ministry official.

Read the full article here:
N. Korea intensifies control of S. Korean dailies sent to Kaesong
Yonhap
Shim Sun-ah
10/27/2008

After a 56 year hiatus, regular freight rail service between the two Koreas resumed on December 11, 2007.  According to reports at the time:

The new service is expected to slash the cost of transporting products to and from the [Kaesong Industrial Zone], just north of the border, considered a major achievement of Seoul’s “sunshine” policy of engaging the North over the past decade.

South Korean officials hope the cargo train service will lay the groundwork for a regular train service for passengers and the railway will be linked through North Korea to the Trans-China and Trans-Siberian railroads.

A 12-car train carrying curbstones and other construction materials left left South Korea’s Dorasan Station at 8:20 a.m. and arrived at North Korea’s Panmun Station 20 minutes later. A joint ceremony was held at the North Korean station around 11 a.m. with the attendance of some 180 officials from both Koreas.

The train returned to the South later in the day with goods including shoes, clothes and watches made at the industrial complex.

Trains will run daily on weekdays from Dorasan Station in Munsan to Panmun, carrying up to 10,000 tons of cargo on each run. The train service begins at 9 a.m. and returns from the North Korean station at 2 p.m. Trains are restricted to a maximum speed of 60 kilometers per hour when traversing the closely guarded frontier. (Korea Times)

However, the following January 29, a mere six weeks after launch, South Korea sought to scale back the rail service:

On the first day of working-level talks in North Korea on Tuesday, the two Koreas discussed scaling back their first regular inter-Korean railway service to run in more than a half century, as the trains are often empty, South Korean officials said. (Yonhap)

Since that time, though, things have not gotten much better:

A daily train service between South and North Korea that was opened as a symbol of reconciliation is nearly always completely empty, according to rail operators.

But in the first ten months, it carried only 340 tons of goods, the operators said in a report to the Seoul parliament. On 150 out of 163 return trips so far, it was a ghost train, carrying nothing at all.

“It may not make sense for cargo trains to run empty but this is too symbolic a project to stop now,” a Korail spokesman said. “It should be viewed in terms of the nation’s future economy.”

Officials said the firms working at the Kaesong park, the only customers for the service, found it easier and cheaper to use the road link previously opened to service it. (Telegraph of London)

Given the nature of political institutions and decision-making, it should not surprise anyone that this service is still in operation.  White elephants of this sort have been justified by any number of quasi-economic excuses: 1. The construction and operation of these projects creates jobs 2. Projects of this sort boost aggregate demand (Keynesian justification) 3. These projects provide some sort of political benefit to which a price cannot be easily attached 4. Capital markets are too short term to see value in these “long-term” projects (market failure argument). 

The dedicated public servant from Korail (qouted above) creatively combines cases 3 and 4 to justify the continued operation of an empty train.  Most of these claims, however, have been long debunked in the economics and political science literatures.  Sunk costs are sunk, so there is no need to fret about them now, but it is a waste to continue subsidizing an empty train.  Surely the South Koreans have a long list of investment projects they could attempt in the DPRK with these funds.  I am sure many in the DPRK would also prefer aid that actually helps as well.

Korea Business Consultants has published their latest newsletter.  You may download it here.

Topics covered include:
Six Party Talk progress
South Korea/Russia gas deal
More factories opening in the DPRK
UN survey of DPRK population
Summit pledges
Pyongynag hosts autumn trade fair
KEPCO to Abandon NK Reactor Gear
Trust Company Handling DPRK’s Overseas Business
DPRK-Russia Railway Work Begins
ROK Opposition Calls for Renewed Cooperation with DPRK
ROK Delegation Leaves for DPRK
ROK Aid Workers Leave for DPRK
“ROK Makes US$27.6 Billion from DPRK Trade”
“Kaesong Output Tops US$400 Million”
DPRK, Kenya Set Up Diplomatic Ties
Medvedev Hails DPRK Anniversary
Claim to North Korean rock fame
International Film Festival Opens
Ginseng

According to Yonhap:

Hyundai Asan Corp., a unit of the South’s Hyundai Group in charge of businesses in North Korea, opened the tour to Kaesong in December last year. Everyday, about 370 people visit the North Korean city, about 70 kilometers north of the frontier separating the two Koreas.

The high number of tourists to Kaesong comes as the two Koreas are still bickering over responsibility in the July death of the South Korean tourist, who was fatally shot dead by a North Korean soldier while touring the North’s scenic mountain resort of Geumgang.

Since then tours to Mt. Geumgang, which began in 1998, have been indefinitely suspended.

In a ceremony to celebrate the 100,000th tourist, Hyundai Asan Chief Executive Officer Cho Kun-shik expressed hope that the two Koreas could amicably resolve the impasse over the shooting death.

According to the Associated Press (via the New Zealand Hearld):

Company officials said most of the tourists have been South Koreans but about 2,600 Americans, Japanese and other foreigners also have taken part in the programme.

Before the [Kumgangsan] shooting incident, about 10,000 people travelled to Kaesong every month, but the number of monthly visitors declined to about 7,450 in August and 5,770 in September, according to Hyundai Asan.

Facts:

1. By May 2008, 40,090 tourists had visited Kaesong, and the daily quota was increased from 300 to 500.  

2. Last August, Hyundai announced it was sending $928,560 to North Korea for the Kaesong tours. 

3. According to Dr. Lankov, the price to customers is W180,000, W100,000 of which is paid to the DPRK.  Additionally, Hyundai pays for all infrastructure improvements.  If these numbers are correct, the DPRK has grossed (and probably netted) W10,000,000,000  since the project was launched (appx. US$9,800,000 using an average interbank exchange rate from January through today).

4.  Although Hyundai Asan asserts (above) that appx. 370 tourists visit Kaesong per day, the most recent monthly figures (5,770 in September) indicate a mere 192/day.  370 is the number derived by taking the total (100,000) and dividing it by the number of days the project has run (appx. 270 this year)…so the daily average trend by month is now well below the annualized daily average.

Read more here:
N. Korean city draws 100,000 tourists from South despite shooting impasse
Yonhap
10/15/2008

North Korea: Border city draws 100,000 tourists
Associated Press (via the New Zealand Hearld)
10/16/2008

North Korea Uncovered: Version 12
Download it here

About this Project: This map covers North Korea’s agriculture, aviation, cultural locations, markets, manufacturing facilities, energy infrastructure, political facilities, sports venues, military establishments, religious facilities, leisure destinations, national parks, shipping, mining, and railway infrastructure. It is continually expanding and undergoing revisions. This is the 12th version.

Additions include: Tongch’ang-dong launch facility overlay (thanks to Mr. Bermudez), Yongbyon overlay with destroyed cooling tower (thanks to Jung Min Noh), “The Barn” (where the Pueblo crew were kept), Kim Chaek Taehung Fishing Enterprise, Hamhung University of education, Haeju Zoo, Pyongyang: Kim il Sung Institute of Politics, Polish Embassy, Munsu Diplomatic Store, Munsu Gas Station, Munsu Friendship Restaurant, Mongolian Embassy, Nigerian Embassy, UN World Food Program Building, CONCERN House, Czech Republic Embassy, Rungnang Cinema, Pyongyang University of Science and Technology, Pyongyang Number 3 Hospital, Electric Machines Facotry, Bonghuajinlyoso, Second National Academy of Sciences, Central Committee Building, Party Administration Building, Central Statistics Bureau, Willow Capital Food House, Thongounjong Pleasure Ground, Onpho spa, Phipa Resort Hotel, Sunoni Chemical Complex (east coast refinery), Ponghwa Chemical complex (west coast refinery), Songbon Port Revolutionary Monument, Hoeryong People’s Library, Pyongyang Monument to the anti Japanese martyrs, tideland reclamation project on Taegye Island. Additionally the electricity grid was expanded and the thermal power plants have been better organized. Additional thanks to Ryan for his pointers.

I hope this map will increase interest in North Korea. There is still plenty more to learn, and I look forward to receiving your contributions to this project.

Version 12 available: Download it here

The South Korean Ministry of Unification has reports on economic output at the Kaesong Industrial Zone.  Below are the highlights from Yonhap:

The total output by South Korean factories operating in North Korea has exceeded US$400 million, Seoul’s Unification Ministry said Monday.

Companies at the Kaesong industrial complex produced goods worth a total of US$410 million between January 2005, when the compound was opened, and July this year. One-fifth of all goods produced were exported, according to the ministry handling inter-Korean affairs.

The output in the first seven months of this year amounted to $140 million, up 51 percent from the same period last year.

As of August, 79 firms operated in the area, employing more than 32,000 North Korean workers, mostly women.

Read the full article here:
Production in inter-Korean business town tops $400 million
Yonhap
9/15/2008

Andrei Lankov writes in the Korea Times that South Korea’s threats to reduce tourism levels to Kaesong, as well as support for the Kaesong Industrial Zone, are misguided.  His reasoning is as follows:

North Korea is a very peculiar society, where the elite are almost entirely free from the pressures experienced by those below them. When sanctions are applied to such a regime, they seldom have a direct bearing on the elite and their lifestyle.

Sanctions usually work in an indirect way, by punishing the population which then might either rebel against the government or vote it out of power. Neither rebellion nor elections are possible in North Korea (well, elections are happening there, as everybody knows, with the approval rate of the government candidates standing at a world record high of 100 percent). As a result of sanctions the populace will die without protesting, while the elite will survive and stay in control, even if for a while they will have ride their beloved Mercedes limousines less frequently.

The only way to bring changes to North Korea is to create forces which will be able to challenge the government. This might lead to a revolution, but one cannot completely rule out that the regime will start giving in if sufficiently pressed from within.

In addition to Lankov’s point above, sanctions can perversely benefit those in power who control and profit from black market activity (at higher prices).   Additionally, politically sophisticated leaders exploit the consequences of foreign-imposed sanctions to restrict domestic freedoms and political opposition. 

Bossuyt (Adverse Consequences of Economic Sanctions) shows even the most optimistic accounts of sanctions point to only a third having partial success.  Others find a mere 2% success rate among authoritarian regimes.  So sanctions have a poor track record of inducing positive policy changes, particularly in North Korea. 

So why are the Kaesong and Kumgang projects worthwhile?  Though not all that economical, Lankov argues that these aid projects create alternate channels for information to permeate the hearts and minds of the isolated North Korean people, and that shattering the North’s monopoly on information is key to promoting change within the DPRK:

…in order to facilitate North Korea’s transformation, more truth about the outside world needs to be imported. The survival of the North Korean regime now critically depends on a few important myths, and each myth is patently false and hence very vulnerable.

When the North Korean propaganda-mongers are talking to the North Korean public, they have to hide how poor their country actually is, and they also have to lie about the great respect Kim and his regime enjoys worldwide, especially in South Korea. An increase in contact with the outside world is the best way to undermine these falsities.

…

The inconvenient truth regarding South Korea’s huge economic advantage will start to surface soon. It will probably take more time before it will dawn on the North Koreans that their Seoul guests are not exactly full of love and respect for the Pyongyang dynasty, either.

There is plenty of journalistic evidence that many North Koreans already know the South is “rich”—although they might not have any idea what that actually means. Still, of all the Hyundai projects in the DPRK, I believe the Kaesong Industrial Zone is probably the most helpful for the South in the long term.  None of Hyundai’s other projects do all that much to improve the human capital of the DPRK people, and when things eventually change, it is important for the RoK to have a population of constituents in the DPRK who have some job and management skills and familiarity with the South’s culture to ease the transition.

Comments welcome.

Read the full article here:
Sanctions Harden Lives of Ordinary North Koreans
Korea Times
Andrei Lankov
8/20/2008

Last week, the Choson Ilbo reported on trade, tourism and other exchanges between the two Koreas:

The number of [South Korean] tourists to North Korea plunged more than 60 percent last month following the shooting death of a South Korean tourist at Mt. Kumgang resort.

The Unification Ministry says the number dropped to about 21,000, almost a 20 percent decrease from July of last year. The resort was closed after the shooting.

The amount of trade between the Koreas also dropped 1.5 percent from last year.

Although commercial transactions at the jointly-operated Kaesong Industrial Complex in the North increased more than 28 percent year on year, non-commercial transactions, such as aid to the North, plunged more than 80 percent.

Read more here:
Tourism to N. Korea Drops 60% in July
Choson Ilbo
8/18/2008