North Korean Economy Watch

Korea Times
Ryu Jin
9/12/2007

More than 50,000 people are expected to visit Mt. Geumgang in North Korea in October, breaking the record for visitors in a single month, according to Hyundai Asan, the South Korean operator of the tourism business, Wednesday.

Hyundai Asan said that the number of people who have made reservations for the tour program for October has already exceeded 54,000, some 10,000 more than the previous record of 44,000 set in August 2005.

“All tickets for the Chuseok holiday from Sept. 22 to 26 have already been booked,’’ a Hyundai Asan spokesman said. “An average of 1,500 people will cross the border to visit the North Korean resort area around the Korean version of Thanksgiving Day.’’

In the meantime, Hyundai Asan also said that it plans to hold various cultural events including an ocarina performance by East Kimura Ocarina Band from Japan on Sept. 15 to greet the advent of autumn.

The Mt. Geumgang tourism project was launched in 1998 amid thaws between the two Koreas. The cumulative number of tourists exceeded 1.5 million in early June, boosted by the reconciliation process since the first inter-Korean summit in 2000.

Yonhap
Sohn Suk-joo
9/6/2007

Inter-Korean trade surged 36.1 percent in the first eight months of this year, compared with the same period of a year earlier, the Unification Ministry said Thursday.

The two-way trade volume increased to US$1.05 billion in the January-August period, up from $775.52 million in 2006, thanks to brisk trade of fishery items and light industry products made at a joint industrial complex in the North Korean border city of Kaesong.

The industrial complex is the crowning achievement of a landmark summit between the leaders of the two Koreas in 2000. South Korean businesses use cheap North Korean labor to produce goods in Kaesong where some 26 South Korean factories employ about 15,000 North Korean workers.

“Inter-Korean commercial trade increased 37.1 percent to $809.71 million, while non-commercial trade rose 32.8 percent to $245.41 million during the same time span,” the ministry said in a statement.

Korea Times (h/t Tim Beal)
Lee Hyo-sik
9/4/2007

Shares of companies engaging in an array of inter-Korean economic cooperation projects have shot up this week, following the news on Sunday that North Korea agreed to dismantle its nuclear weapons development program by the end of the year.

Most firms, which will take part in sending electricity to the Stalinist country in return for the dismantlement of its nuclear reactors, saw their stocks rise to their daily limit up over the past two trading sessions.

Also, shares of those companies operating in the Gaesong Industrial Complex have rallied on expectations that easing of geo-political tensions associated with North Korea will further boost economic cooperation between the two Koreas.

But analysts cautioned that investors should refrain from purchasing inter-Korean project related stocks at the moment as share prices will likely fall once the North Korean hype subsides.

After two days of negotiations with his Pyongyang counterpart Kim Kye-gwan in Geneva, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill told reporters Sunday that North Korea had agreed to declare its nuclear stockpile and disable its atomic weapons programs by the end of this year.

Also, North Korea’s Foreign Ministry said Monday that the U.S. had decided to remove Pyongyang from its list of states sponsoring terrorism.

Shares of Ewha Technologies Information, a power equipment maker, hit its daily limit up on Monday, rising nearly 15 percent to 1,965 won from last Friday’s close of 1,710 won. Ewha shares rose 1.78 percent to close at 2,000 won in Tuesday’s trading session.

Romanson, a wrist watch manufacturer, which operates plants in the Gaesong Industrial Complex, saw its share price increase 14.9 percent to 3,400 won on Monday from 2,960 won last Friday.

“North Korea related stocks went up sharply early last month after the announcement of the second inter-Korean summit. And now, the latest development surrounding the reclusive state is providing a further boost to those shares,” said Lee sun-yup, an analyst at Goodmorning Shinhan Securities.

He said a large number of investors are snatching up shares of companies involved in North Korean economic projects when the local stock market has lost its directions amid volatile investor sentiment in the wake of U.S. subprime loan default risks.

He said investors should be picky, as it will take time before these companies’ profits will benefit from the easing of tension between the North and South.

“It’s risky to jump on the bandwagon at the moment as such shares will likely come down soon as in the past when the North Korean hype dies down and the market regains solid upward momentum,” Kim said.

He advised investors to choose North Korea related shares based on their corporate earnings and long-term prospects.

The most authoritative, publicly available map of North Korea
Version 4: August 29, 2007

Download it here 

This map covers North Korea’s agriculture, aviation, cultural locations, manufacturing facilities, railroad, energy infrastructure, politics, sports venues, military establishments, religious facilities, leisure destinations, and national parks. It is continually expanding and undergoing revisions. This is the fourth version.

Additions to the latest version of “North Korea Uncovered” include the city of Manpo along the Chinese border, KEDO, Kumgang Resort expansion, Kaesong Industrial Zone, as well as a few more parks, antiaircraft sites, dams, mines, canals, etc. I have also added more links in the menu which will tell the viewer a bit about the locations themselves. I have also changed the color scheme to make the collage easier to view.

Disclaimer: I cannot vouch for the authenticity of many locations since I have not seen or been to them, but great efforts have been made to check for authenticity. These efforts include pouring over books, maps, conducting interviews, and keeping up with other peoples’ discoveries. In many cases, I have posted sources, though not for all. This is a thorough compilation of lots of material, but I will leave it up to the reader to make up their own minds as to what they see. I cannot catch everything and I welcome contributions.

I hope this map will increase interest in North Korea. There is still plenty more to learn, and I look forward to receiving your additions to this project.

Institute for Far Eastern Studies
NK Brief No. 07-8-29-1

A Chinese manufacturer of artificial fingernails has become the first non-Korean business to set up shop in the Kaesong Industrial Complex. The (South) Korea Land Corporation announced that on August 27, a contract for entry into the Kaesong Industrial Complex was concluded with Dashing Diva, the South Korean subsidiary of Tianjin Jci Cosmetic, which had applied for a plot in the 1st stage of the KIC. Another firm, a plywood manufacturer located in Linyi, a city in China’s Shandong province and the hub of the country’s lumber industry, is preparing to close a contract for a 2000 square meter plot by the end of August.

In order to enhance the global image of the KIC, six plots in the first stage of the complex, designed to house small and medium-sized manufacturers, have been slated specifically for foreign manufacturers. In the event a foreign enterprise wishes to do business in the KIC, it must have a South Korean subsidiary with which a land development contract can be drawn. However, when applications were solicited last June, not a single company showed interest, so the lots were offered contract ad libitum beginning at the end of July.

In addition to these Chinese companies, representatives of the Kimberly-Clark Corporation, a U.S.-based global leader in health and hygiene products, met with KIC officials at the ROK Ministry of Unification on August 14 in order to reach an understanding on investment issues. Yuhan-Kimberly Ltd., Kimberly-Clark Corporation’s Seoul-based subsidiary, oversees all of the corporation’s Northeast Asian branches. Yuhan-Kimberly Ltd. CEO Moon Kook-hyun stated that the corporation’s Beijing plant was interested in a lot in the KIC, after Kimberly-Clark Corp. CEO Thomas Falk visited the complex earlier in the year.

Investment by foreign companies has special meaning for the inter-Korean joint project, as it reflects international confidence in the complex. In particular, when taking into account the importance of U.S.-DPRK relations, investment by the multinational Kimberly-Clark Corp. could have even greater meaning.

Joong Ang Daily
Limb Jae-un
8/29/2007

Less than 10 percent of companies in Kaesong have stayed five years.

Hundreds of companies are lining up to operate in North Korea’s Kaesong Industrial Complex, but an economist said in a seminar yesterday that the current economic cooperation with South Korea won’t bring any significant changes to the communist country.

More than 200 companies have signed a contract with the Korea Land Corp. to join the 33 domestic companies currently operating in the industrial park, according to Kim Du-bok, an employee at the state-owned company.

Korea Land Corp. is responsible for assigning space in the industrial complex.

Among the new companies are a couple of firms with foreign connections that hope to open next year.

A Korean subsidiary of Tianjin JCI Cosmetic Corp., a Chinese producer of synthetic nail tips and other cosmetic goods, agreed Monday to lease space in the section allotted for foreign companies.

“Tianjin JCI Cosmetic Corp. and its Korean subsidiary, Dashing Diva, signed a contract to lease a piece of land,” Kim said yesterday.

To operate at the inter-Korean park, which uses North Korean labor and South Korean technology, a foreign company needs to have a South Korean subsidiary.

Yuhan-Kimberly, a joint venture between U.S.-based Kimberly-Clark and Korea-based Yuhan, has expressed a desire to set up a manufacturing base in Kaesong, but has not yet applied for space.

However, Cho Dong-ho, a professor at Ewha Womans University, said during a seminar in Seoul yesterday sponsored by the Korea Rural Economic Institute, that the government needs a more practical approach to stimulate reform and the opening of North Korea.

As an example of the failure, he said there are neither goods nor people to transport on the reconnected railroad between Seoul and Sinuiju.

He also said only 9.2 percent of the companies that tried to manufacture goods in Kaesong had done so for more than five years, as of January 2007. Many companies, he said, halted their operations after one or two years.

“The purpose of the economic policy toward North Korea is to support North Korea’s economic development and encourage reform and the opening of the North, but despite the fact that the cooperation is an economic issue, non-economic considerations were made a priority.”

Korea Times
Ryu Jin
8/28/2007

A Chinese company is going to be the first foreign enterprise to do business in the inter-Korean industrial park in the North Korean border city of Gaeseong, according to the Korea Land Corporation (KLC) Tuesday.

KLC officials said that Dashing Diva, the South Korean branch of Chinese artificial nail manufacturer Tianjin Jci Cosmetic, signed a contract to purchase a 6,000-square-meter lot in the Gaeseong Industrial Complex.

It marks the first time that a foreign company has bought a site in the inter-Korean joint venture, where about 15,000 North Korean workers commute to factories owned and operated by South Koreans.

While the first-phase pilot site has so far been occupied only by South Korean firms, the KLC designated a portion of land in Gaeseong for foreign businesses to boost the industrial complex’s international image and put the lots on sale in June.

Despite the South Korean government’s efforts to lure foreign investment there, no firms had come from outside the country until recently. Multinational sanitary goods maker Kimberly-Clark has also visited the complex to discuss investment there.

Located just north of the border, the Gaeseong Industrial Complex is a flagship project signifying reconciliation between the two Koreas, which remain still technically at war after a fratricidal conflict more than half a century ago.

Despite potential risks stemming from political uncertainty, the special zone has an inescapable economic logic: cheap labor and land of the North combined with the capital and technology of the South.

Gaeseong upbeat with foreign entrants
Korea Herald
Kim Yoon-mi
8/17/2007
 
The recent submissions of applications by two Chinese companies hoping to build factories in the Gaeseong industrial park in North Korea have further brightened the outlook on the joint economic project between the two Koreas, industry sources said yesterday.

South Korean government agency, The Korea Land Corp., said both a Chinese artificial fingernail manufacturer and a plywood producer submitted documents on July 30 in hopes of securing 6,000 square meters and 29,000 square meters of land, respectively, at the Gaeseong industrial park.

The Korea Land Corp. rents land in Gaeseong to individual South Korean or foreign companies under 50-year leases. The company had initially announced in late May that there were six applications available for foreign companies for 1,750,000 square meters of land in Gaeseong. No foreign applications were received until the two Chinese companies submitted their applications in July, according to an official at Korea Land Corp., who declined to be named.

“For foreign companies to build factories in Gaeseong, they should establish entities in South Korea. So, we are waiting for the two Chinese companies to finish that procedure first,” the official said.

The contract with the two companies is expected to be completed late this month, the official said.

Experts say Chinese manufacturers may have decided to move factories to North Korea because China’s rapid economic growth is raising wages and prices.

Currently, an average North Korean employed by any one of the 26 South Korean companies operating in the Gaeseong Industrial Complex earns $60.37 per month.

There have been unconfirmed news reports that the U.S. paper-based consumer product maker Kimberly-Clark Corp. may try to invest in the North Korean city.

Kimberly-Clark CEO Thomas Falk earlier hinted that the company would be interested in investing in Gaeseong, after he visited the North Korean city in late February.

“Gaeseong industrial part has the best environment (skilled labor) and facilities for South Korean SMEs to step forward…. Kimberly-Clark will be very interested in investment (in Gaeseong),” he was quoted as saying by the local daily, Maeil Business, on March 1.

The unnamed official from The Korea Land Corp. said he could not comment on the Kimberly-Clark proposition because he is not at liberty to discuss which foreign companies are in contact with his company.

However, the official said many foreign companies have contacted the Korea Land Corp., inquiring about going into North Korea.

The entry of foreign companies into Gaeseong will clearly be a boon for Hyundai Asan, the South Korean operator of major business projects in North Korea, the company’s officials said. This good news comes in light of a second summit between the two Koreas, another upbeat announcement for the park, Hyundai Asan officials said.

Hyundai Asan is in charge of the construction of factories in Gaeseong industrial park and operates South Korea’s tour business to Mount Geumgang resort in North Korea.

The Gaeseong industrial park, near the border with South Korea, was established in 2000 following the first landmark summit between South Korea’s then-President Kim Dae-jung and North Korean leader Kim Jong-il.

Chinese want some Kaesong action
Joong Ang Daily
8/13/2007

Two small Chinese light-industry companies have applied to build factories in an industrial complex in North Korea where South Korean companies are invested, a South Korean state land developer said on Saturday.

The Korea Land Corp. said a Chinese cosmetics manufacturer and a plywood firm submitted documents on June 30 requesting 6,000 and 2,000 square meters of land respectively in the Kaesong Industrial Complex near Kaesong, a North Korean city close to the border with South Korea.

It is the first time that foreign companies have applied to build plants at the complex where 26 South Korean labor-intensive companies are currently operating with a North Korean workforce of 15,000.

By 2012, it’s anticipated the complex will have several hundred South Korean plants employing as many as 500,000 North Koreans. South Korea is responsible for water, electricity and other infrastructure at the complex which opened three years ago.

The complex is a much-vaunted achievement of the first-ever inter-Korean summit of leaders in 2000 in the North Korean capital, Pyongyang. The second-ever summit of Korean leaders is scheduled to begin on Aug 28, also in Pyongyang.

Joong Ang Daily
You Sang-won
8/27/2007

GS Caltex Corp., South Korea’s second-biggest oil refiner, plans to open a gas station near the Kaesong Industrial Complex as its first North Korea project.

To that end, the company signed a memorandum of understanding with Jiudau, a South Korean firm that has received the right to use land in Kaesong from the North Korean government, Jiudau said.

According to Jiudau, a service company specializing in events for inter-Korean cultural and sports exchanges, GS Caltex will spend 17 billion won ($18 million) to build a gas station in the 6,611 square meter (71,160 square feet) site.

Jiudau said North Korea had approved the gas station plans. After approval from South Korea’s Unification Ministry set for next month, Jiudau and GS Caltex will begin construction and open the station in the first half of next year.

Kim Kwang-soo, managing director of GS Caltex, only said, “We are considering a gas station near the Kaesong Industrial Complex as our first North Korea business project.”

Jiudau said that once the Kaesong station is running well, GS Caltex will open stations in other North Korean cities, including Pyongyang.

Hyundai Oilbank, another South Korean oil refiner, is already operating a gas station in the Kaesong Industrial Complex and selling gasoline at $1 per liter.

Yonhap
8/22/2007

Kimberly-Clark Corp., one of the world’s biggest makers of health care and sanitary goods, is considering opening a factory in a South Korean-built industrial zone in North Korea, according to the company’s senior executive on Wednesday.

Moon Kook-hyun, chief executive officer of Yuhan-Kimberly Ltd., Kimberly-Clark’s South Korean unit in Seoul, recently told reporters that the company’s “sewing plant” in China may take part in slots of the industrial complex in the North Korean border city of Kaesong.

“First of all, I plan to sign a preliminary contract (to take part in the Kaesong industrial complex) and then will persuade our head office,” Moon said.

Moon and Thomas Falk, chairman of Kimberly-Clark, visited the Kaesong industrial park in February.

Currently, state-run Korea Land Corp. is receiving bids from foreign companies which want to set up factories in Kaesong, located just 70 kilometers north of Seoul.

“If Kimberly-Clark applies to receive land for the Kaesong industrial park, there will be no difficulty,” said an official at Korea Land.

South Korea began building the industrial park in 2003 on a trial basis with the hope of creating a model for eventual reunification of the Korean Peninsula.

Currently, 26 South Korean plants employ about 16,000 North Korean workers who produce garments, kitchenware and a number of other goods.

If the industrial zone becomes fully operational by 2012, more than 350,000 North Korean workers will work there, according to the South’s Unification Ministry.

In a free trade agreement signed last month, the U.S. government said it would recognize the Kaesong-made goods as originating in South Korea.

Moon’s remark also came as optimism has been building over progress in resolving the North’s nuclear standoff.

North Korea has shut down its key nuclear facilities at Yongbyon under a February agreement, which was also signed by South Korea, the U.S., Japan, China and Russia.

It now has to disable the Yongbyon facilities and declare all of its nuclear programs in exchange for 950,000 tons of heavy fuel oil or equivalent aid.

Institute for Far East Studies (IFES)
NK Brief No. 07-8-22-1

The Bank of Korea released a report on August 17 that details economic estimates on a variety of sectors in North Korea. Overall, North Korea’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) fell 1.1 percent during 2006, the first time since 1999 that the North has failed to increase its GDP. Inclement weather was one factor that played into a fall in agricultural production, and there also appears to have been little progress in the construction of public works in the country. Overall, North Korean GNI was 2.9 percent of that in the South, with per capita GNI at 1,108 USD, 6 percent of the 18,372 USD per capita GNI in South Korea.

The entire economy of the DPRK is approximately 1/35th that of the South, with the Gross National Income (GNI) a mere 1/17th the level seen in the ROK. This shows a growing divide between the two Koreas, as the comparisons in the previous year were 1/33rd and 1/16th, respectively. Due to the North Korean nuclear issues and other foreign relations problems faced during 2006, a worsening of diplomatic relations with other countries, energy shortages and other economic woes befell the North, putting the entire economy in a difficult situation.

The North showed a weakening of the agricultural and forestry industries, increasing production by a mere 2.4 percent, 2.6 percent down from 2005. Corn and other cereal production grew by 7 percent, but rice was down 6.4 percent, and bean production was down 6.6 percent from the year before, leaving overall grain output down 3.6 percent. On the other hand, shellfish and crustacean harvests grew by 1.5 percent, while timber and livestock harvests remained unchanged.

On the mining front, coal and other non-metal mined resources showed promising increases, but production of lead, zinc, and copper fell by 1.7 percent, compared to the 3.5 percent growth posted in the previous year. Despite promising increases in production of manufactured goods and growth in the chemical and heavy industries in 2005, last year North Korean production growth rates in these fields fell flat at a mere 0.4 percent, increasing production rates of fibers, clothing and shoes, but turning out less kitchenware and food-related products. Coal and fuel products looked favorable, but fabricated metals and machine parts, as well as nonferrous metal products grew at a rate of 1.1 percent, down from 5.4 percent.

Gas-fired electrical generation was up 17 percent, while hydroelectric power grew only 2.7 percent, falling from 4.4 percent in 2005. Other infrastructure projects were also on the decline, with only 49 km of road paved in 2006.

The number of foreign tourists declined, with visitors to Kumgang Mountain falling from 366,000 in 2005 to only 265,000 last year, adding to the 21.8 percent decline in the food and lodging sector, but the transportation and communication sector grew by 5.1 percent, leading to an overall gain of 1.1 percent in the service industry.

The gap in overseas trade between the two Koreas increased from 182-fold to 212-fold as North Korean foreign trade fell off 5.2 percent. Imports in the North were up 2.3%, although seafood imports were down 48.4 percent. The slack was made up by a 34.1 percent increase in the import of plastics, a 31.2 percent increase in imported chemical goods, and a 12.4 percent increase in imported machinery.

During 2006, inter-Korean exchanges grew 27.8 percent, reaching 13.5 billion USD. South Korean exports to the North grew 16 percent as Seoul increased rice and fertilizer aid, and exports to the Kaesong Industrial Complex grew. On the other hand, North-South cooperative projects grew 52.7 percent as South Korea increasingly imported North Korean zinc, sand, and other natural resources.

In order to give some perspective to the North Korean economic data, the Bank of Korea offered the following comparisons:

DPRK/ROK/Ratio
Population (thousand) 23,079/48.297/2.1
Economic Growth (2006) -1.1%/5.0%
Nominal GNI (100 million USD) 256/8,873/34.7
Per Capita GNI (USD) 1,108/18,372/16.6
Exports (100 million USD) 9.5/3,254.6/343.8
Imports (100 million USD) 20.5/3,93.8/151.0
Coal Production (10,000 tons) 2,468/280/0.11
Electrical Use (10,000 kW) 782/6,551/8.4
Electrical Production Capacity (100 mill. KW) 225/3,812/16.9
Petroleum Imports (10,000 bbl) 384/88,843/231.4
Cereal Production (10,000 tons) 448.3/530.0/1.2
Rice Production (10,000 tons) 189.4/468.0/2.5
Seafood Harvest (10,000 tons) 92.3/303.3/3.3
Iron Ore Mining (10,000 tons) 504.1/22.7/0.05
Nonferrous Metals Mining (10,000 tons) 8.6/187.7/21.8
Automobile Production (10,000) 0.44/384.0/872.8
Steel (10,000 tons) 118.1/4,843.3/41.0
Cement (10,000 tons) 615.5/4,920.9/8.0
Fertilizer (10,000 tons) 45.4/318.3/7.0
Chemical Products (10,000 tons) 2.9/145.7/50.2
Railways (km) 5,235/3,392/0.6
Roads (km) 25,544/102,061/4.0
Port Loading Capacity (10,000 tons) 3,700/69,213/18.7
Shipping Capacity (10,000 tons) 90.4/1,180.2/13.1