North Korean Economy Watch

Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES)
2014-2-6

A pilot operation of the new electronic entry system, or radio frequency identification system (RFID), to facilitate the travel to and from the Kaesong Industrial Complex (KIC) was completed on January 15 and pilot operation began from January 28, 2014.

According to a Ministry of Unification (MOU) official, “The construction of the system began from December 11 last year and it was completed this month on the 15th. The trial operation period will begin from the 28th.”

The RFID system was agreed upon last September at the second meeting of the South-North Joint Committee for the Kaesong Industrial Complex in order to improve the South Korean companies’ access to the KIC.

The new RFID system will replace the paper document inspection with an electronic card system and personnel screening will be reduced to 5 seconds from 13 seconds while vehicle screening time will be reduced to 7 seconds from 15 seconds.

In particular, the reduced inspection time will facilitate the travel and ease the heavy traffic during Monday mornings and Friday afternoons: for personnel screenings, from 17 minutes to 5 minutes; for vehicle inspections, from 19 minutes to 8 minutes.

However, the existing personnel and vehicle access to the KIC which requires a 3-day advance notice still remains in effect, and the mobility of personnel and vehicles will still be strictly monitored and chaperoned by the North Korean military.

On the other hand, the fourth round of the sub-panel meeting was held on January 24 to discuss the operation of the RFID system, Internet connectivity, and simplification of customs process at the KIC.

In regards to the streamlining of the customs process, the two countries agreed to change it from ‘complete’ to ‘selective’ examination, but differences still remain over the ratio to be applied to the selective probe.

As for the issue of Internet connection, it is still in the infant stage and the two sides agreed to resume the negotiation on February 7.

According to the Associated Press:

North Korea allowed about 30 foreign government officials, central bankers and diplomats to tour the industrial complex in Kaesong. The foreigners were in Seoul, South Korea, for a conference of the Group of 20 countries.

…

“This is an authoritarian regime with a very nasty way of punishing anybody … who is against the regime,” said Paola Subacchi, director of international economics research at Chatham House, an independent policy institute based in London. “There’s no transparency, no accountability, nothing that could make an international investor happy and willing to invest.”

But Subacchi said the complex’s expansion might bring positive changes to North Korea because it would provide jobs and help feed North Korean workers and their families.

Hong Yang-ho, South Korean chairman of the committee that oversees management of the park, estimated the complex would create jobs for about 120,000 North Korean workers if it is fully occupied with factories. About 40 percent of the complex is currently being used.

The industrial park combines South Korean capital and technology with cheap North Korean labor. Currently around 53,000 North Koreans are working in the complex at some 120 companies. North Korea is estimated to have received $80 million in workers’ salaries in 2012, an average of $127 a month per person, paid in U.S. dollars, according to South Korea’s Unification Ministry.

The invitation to visit Kaesong was the first concrete step that the two Koreas have taken toward opening the complex to overseas investors since they agreed to restart the park in September.

Operations had been halted in April when North Korea withdrew its workers amid tension over its threats of nuclear war. The complex reopened after North Korea toned down its rhetoric and began pursuing diplomacy with South Korea.

The two Koreas also agreed to work toward attracting overseas investment and discuss other ways to improve business, including better communication and allowing people and goods to move more freely to and from Kaesong.

…

Domenico Lombardi, a think tank director, said he would not build a factory in Kaesong if he were a businessman because of the risks and high uncertainty.

But he said it was a positive sign that North Korea was eager to show the park to foreigners.

“This is the first step of what a more open North Korea would be one day,” said Lombardi, director of the Global Economy program at the Center for International Governance Innovation, based in Ontario, Canada.

The next challenge for North Korea will be “making their own economy more accessible to foreign investors,” Lombardi said.

Read the full story here:
Inter-Korean Factory Park Tough Sell to Outsiders
Associated Press
Youkyung Lee
2013-12-19

According to Yonhap:

Inter-Korean trade has gradually been returning to normal levels following the reopening of a joint industrial park in North Korea’s border city of Kaesong in September, government data showed Sunday.

According to data from the Ministry of Unification and the Korea Customs Service, two-way trade between South and North Korea amounted to US$152.15 million last month. The amount is equivalent to 80.9 percent of total bilateral trade in the same month last year.

“Exports have grown with the entry of large amounts of raw materials, production facilities and food supplies as (the Kaesong complex) prepares to resume operations in earnest,” a ministry official said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

The complex, which ground to a halt in April amid high security tensions on the Korean Peninsula, reopened in September. Inter-Korean trade is limited to the joint factory park because all other economic exchanges have been banned since May 2010 due to North Korea’s sinking of a South Korean warship in March of that year.

“The Kaesong Industrial Complex is gradually recovering to previous levels,” the official said.

The complex, a key outcome of the first-ever inter-Korean summit in 2000, combines South Korean capital and technology with cheap North Korean labor to produce clothes, utensils, watches and other labor-intensive goods.

The project serves as a key source of cash for the impoverished country.

My compendium of stories related to the closure and reopening of the Kaesong Zone can be found here.

Read the full story here:
Inter-Korean trade recovers following reopening of Kaesong complex
Yonhap
2013-11-24

UPDATE 91 (2014-1-14): ROK spends 1/3 of DPRK budget for FY 2913. According to Yonhap:

South Korea spent less than one-third of its fund intended to boost exchange and cooperation with North Korea last year, the unification ministry said Tuesday.

South Korea spent 296.4 billion won (US$280 million) last year, or 27 percent of the 1.09 trillion won earmarked, for the inter-Korean cooperation fund, according to the ministry, which handles inter-Korean affairs.

The figure represents the highest level in six years as the government paid insurance money to small South Korean companies that operate plants in the North’s border city of Kaesong.

The South Korean companies received insurance money worth 177.7 billion won due to the months-long shutdown of the inter-Korean joint factory park in Kaesong last year.

In 2008, the ministry spent 18.1 percent of the inter-Korean cooperation fund. The ratio dropped to 8.6 percent and 6.5 percent in 2009 and 2012, respectively, as inter-Korean relations soured.

The factory park resumed operations in September, more than five months after the North unilaterally closed it in anger over joint annual military exercises between South Korea and the United States. In August, Pyongyang pledged not to shut the park down again “under any circumstances.”

More than 44,600 North Koreans work at 120 South Korean firms operating in the park to produce clothes, shoes, watches and other labor-intensive goods. The project serves as a major legitimate revenue source for the impoverished communist country.

UPDATE 90 (2013-12-30): The ink has barely dried before the DPRK has seemed to breech it.  This time the DPRK has demanded that the firms in the KIC pay back taxes. According to Yonhap:

North Korea has demanded that South Korean firms operating in a jointly run factory park in the communist nation pay taxes to North Korea, an official said Monday, in an apparent breach of a September deal.

The North said in a notice last week that the firms in the factory park in the North’s western border city of Kaesong should pay taxes incurred between Jan. 1 and April 8, according to the official handling the issue at the unification ministry.

The ministry, which handles inter-Korean affairs, said the North’s demand did not make any sense, and it was in talks with North Korea over the issue.

The move comes three months after North Korea agreed not to collect taxes from the South Korean firms for 2013 to make up for their losses following its unilateral closure of the factory park on April 9.

In September, the sides resumed the operation of the factory park, a month after the North pledged not to shut it down again “under any circumstances.”

Although the North Korean government took a loss on “tax revenue” it still made plenty of money from the confiscated wages of its workers. According to the article:

The North earned US$80 million in wages for its workers last year.

UPDATE 89 (2013-11-24): Inter-Korean trade has started to recover.

UPDATE 88 (2013-11-13): The Korea Times reports that the Kaesong firms are getting loan payments deferred and a new round of talks is underway.  According to the article:

The government said Wednesday it will allow companies with factories at the inter-Korean Gaeseong Industrial Complex (GIC) to delay payment of loans due within the next six months.

“The due date for loans taken out from the state-run inter-Korean cooperation fund will automatically be pushed back six months,” said Park Soo-jin, vice-spokeswoman of the Ministry of Unification that handles inter-Korean affairs, Wednesday, during a regular briefing. “The amount equals to 46 percent of all loans provided by the fund.”

According to the ministry, 28 out of the total 123 companies, which have taken out loans totaling 9.7 billion won ($ 9 million), will benefit from this measure.

Up to date, companies that have factories in North Korea’s border city of Gaeseong altogether borrowed about 21.3 billion won ($ 19.9 million) from the cooperation fund.

The move by the government is aimed at easing the pressure on GIC companies strapped for cash in the face of declined production as a consequence of the five-month hiatus of operations because of heightened tension on the Korean Peninsula earlier this year.

In the same article, the Korea times reports on the latest round of talks between the DPRK and ROK over the management of the KIC:

Meanwhile, on the same day, working-level officials from the South and North met to discuss ways of better protecting investment at the GIC and promote its internationalization.

The meeting of two sub-panels of the Gaeseong joint management committee were held in the North’s border city, the ministry said.

“The two sub-panel meetings, the first since Sept. 26, are designed to bolster the overall global competitiveness of the GIC,” a ministry official said.

There are altogether two sub-panels under the larger GIC joint management committee that has taken charge of running the complex since operations resumed in September.

During the investment protection panel meeting, the two sides reportedly discussed the establishment of an official dispute settlement regime coupled with how to attract more foreign investors into the GIC.

Previously, the two Koreas agreed to hold an IR session on Oct. 31 but it was canceled when little headway was made in a separate sub-panel meeting to change rules dealing with travel, communication and customs at the joint complex in North Korea.

The ministry also said another meeting to discuss the rights and safety of South Koreans working in Gaeseong will be held today.

But the date for the travel and communication meeting has yet to be fixed because of its sensitivity.

Read previous posts below:

(more…)

According to Yonhap (via Global Post):

Trade between South and North Korea came to virtually zero in May after inter-Korean tensions led to the shutdown of the Kaesong Industrial Complex seen as the last symbol of bilateral economic cooperation, the government said Monday.

The volume of inter-Korean trade reached only US$320,000 last month, which accounts for just over 1 percent of the $23.4 million recorded in April, according to the Unification Ministry, which handles inter-Korean affairs.

The majority of the May trade represents electricity costs the South spent to maintain the plant facilities in the factory park in the North Korean border city of Kaesong, according to the ministry. The South exported about $260,000 worth of electricity while importing $60,000 worth of periodicals from the North last month, the ministry said.

Inter-Korean exchange came to an abrupt halt in mid-April as the North withdrew North Korean workers employed by South Korean firms in the Kaesong industrial zone in protest against South Korea’s joint military drills with the U.S. in March.

The joint factory park made up almost all of the inter-Korean trade as chilly relations cut off other exchanges.

The number of cross-border trips permitted during May came to only seven, the ministry said, adding that they were the last batch of the seven South Korean workers who returned to the South after the closing of the Kaesong complex.

As inter-Korean relations remain frosty, the hiatus in inter-Korean trade is expected to continue, analysts said.

Read the full story here:
Inter-Korean trade comes to almost naught in May
Yonhap (via Global Post)
2013-6-24

According to Yonhap:

Trade between South and North Korea tumbled last month after the North shut down the jointly run industrial park in its border town of Kaesong, government data showed Tuesday.

The monthly inter-Korean trade volume came to US$23.43 million in April, down 88 percent from $194.27 million recorded the previous month, according to the data from the Ministry of Unification in charge of inter-Korean affairs.

The April figure is almost similar to the average monthly trade volume of $23.94 million registered in 1995.

In early April, the North banned the entry of South Korean workers and materials into the Kaesong Industrial Complex and withdrew all North Korean workers employed by South Korean firms there in protest against Seoul’s joint military exercises with the U.S. in March.

…

Trade between the two countries, which remain technically at war since the 1950-53 Korean War ended in an armistice, had steadily increased since late in the 1980’s to register an annual record of $1 billion in 2005.

Read the full story here:
Tnter-Korean Trade Tumble
Yonhap
2013-5-21

According to Yonhap:

Despite rising cross-border tension, the trade between South and North Korea reached a record high last year, government data showed Saturday.

The volume of trade between the two Koreas reached US$1.97 billion in 2012, inching up from the previous record of $1.91 billion in 2010, according to the data by the Korea Customs Service.

South Korean products worth $896.26 million were shipped to North Korea, up 13.4 percent from the previous year.

The amount of products that came here from the North jumped 19.3 percent on-year to $1.07 billion, according to the data.

A total of 99 percent of the volume was shipped through a land route linked to the inter-Korean industrial complex in the North’s border town of Kaesong.

Read the full story here:
Inter-Korean trade hits record high in 2012
Yonhap
2013-2-9

According to Yonhap:

Production at the Kaesong Industrial Complex grew 17.5 percent last year from a year earlier as South Korean firms employed more North Korean workers, which raised output, Seoul’s Unification Ministry said Thursday.

The total output by the 123 South Korean firms operating in the inter-Korean economic project zone is estimated to have reached US$470 million during the one year period, according to data released by the ministry handling inter-Korean affairs.

The total number of North Korean workers employed at the industrial park in the North Korean border city of Kaesong, rose to 53,507 as of the end of 2012, up from 49,866 a year earlier, according to the data.

You can read the full story here:
Output from Kaesong complex jumps 17.5 pct on-year in 2012
Yonhap
2013-1-10

Stephan Haggard posts some economic data from the Kaesong Industrial Zone. I repost most of it here for archival purposes:

According to the MOU, the average monthly wage at KIC has reached $128.3 as of the first half of 2012. This marks a steady increase from $68.1 in 2006, $71.0 in 2007, $74.1 in 2008, $80.3 in 2009, $93.7 in 2010, $109.3 in 2011. One source of the increase is a built-in escalator clause on the minimum wage payment, which started at $50 and has increased 5% a year over the last six years. But that only gets you to about $67 for this year.

The remainder of the observed increase is apparently the result of additional payments for overtime, which has been rising dramatically. Average weekly working hours were already 55.2 hours in 2006 but now stand at 61.6 in 2012 (up to July). If we knew that these additional hours were the result of the free choices of hard-working, upwardly mobile workers we would still probably find it a little excessive. But of course, the advantages of working in Kaesong are such that North Korean authorities have absolute power to hire and fire at will. There is no way of knowing whether workers would choose this regimen if they were organized or not.

But the story is much worse, of course, because we don’t ultimately know what share of these wage payments actually end up in the hands of the workers in the complex. Wages are paid in U.S. dollars to the North Korean authorities by the South Korean companies operating in the complex. 45% of the wage bill–15% for “social security” and 30% for “socio-cultural policy entitlements”–flows into the regime’s coffer, while the remaining 55% is supposedly given to the workers in either DPRK won or coupons.

But not so fast. A crucial question is the exchange rate at which workers are paid and the value of the “coupons” they receive. We hardly need to state the obvious: North Korean workers are not getting paid the won equivalent of their dollar salaries at anything resembling the shadow-market exchange rate that reflects actual scarcities. At least in the Yonhap report, the MOU makes no mention of what the real dollar equivalent of won payments are using a realistic exchange rate. But given the country’s high inflation and rapid depreciation of the exchange rate—see my colleague Marc Noland on this—the dollar value of what North Korean workers actually receive could be only a small fraction—even a very small fraction—of the stated dollar wage .

Why has Kaesong stayed open? The answer lies in a pretty straightforward political economy calculus on both sides. For the South, Kaesong is industrial policy for labor-intensive firms. For North Korea, it is a cash cow that even hardliners have been loath to push the way of the Mt. Kumgang project. Since 2004, total wage payments for North Korean workers in the KIC has totaled $245.7 million, rising from $380,000 in 2004 (the first year of operation) to $61.76 million in 2011 and $45.93 million in the first half of 2012. For Pyongyang, even hardliners can see that this is a no-brainer.

Institute for Far Eastern Studies
2012-10-25

Recently, eight companies in the Kaesong Industrial Complex (KIC) informed that they received tax collection notices, a unilateral decision made by the North Koreans.

The Ministry of Unification and KIC reported that out of the 123 companies, 8 companies were informed by the North Korean authorities to pay about 160,000 USD in total in taxes.

Two companies out of the eight notified companies already paid close to 20,000 USD to the North Korean tax authorities.

On top of taxation, 21 companies were notified to submit additional tax documents. This may be to collect additional information for future tax collection purposes.

The tax authorities are also requiring companies to submit documents related to show proof of purchase of raw materials, and submit cost analysis documents and a copy of bank statements showing the history transactions.

Last August, the Central Special Direct General Bureau (CSDGB) notified the Kaesong Industrial District Management Committee of new tax bylaws, which enforces a fine up to 200 times the amount of accounting manipulation and abolish the retroactive taxation system while increasing the number of documents for submission. Furthermore, the North is threatening to restrict access to the KIC, if companies fail to pay owed taxes or do not submit requested documents.

In addition to imposing fines for tax frauds, new tax bylaws demanded by the CSDGB included enforcement of additional taxes in the name of corporate income tax, sales tax, and other taxes.

The unilateral decision by the CSDGB to amend bylaws is a violation of Kaesong Industrial District Law, which requires any revision of the laws must be negotiated between the North and the South. Another problematic issue is that tax imposed on the companies is based on North Korea’s own estimation rather than tax reports submitted by the companies of the KIC.

For the first time last year, tenant companies in the KIC recorded an average operating profit of 56 million KRW, finally operating in the black after years in deficit.