North Korean Economy Watch

From the Herald Tribune:
Donald Greenlees

In May, Kelvin Chia, one of the first foreign lawyers to receive a license to practice in North Korea, took a party of Indonesian miners on an investment tour.
 
Visiting a coal mine outside Pyongyang, the group was surprised by the welcome from North Korean officials and found that the basic road and power infrastructure serving the mine site was in a better condition than they expected. Chia said the mining company – which he declined to identify for commercial reasons – is likely to soon enter a joint venture with the North Korean operator to further develop the mine.
 
Since being granted the right to open an office in Pyongyang last October, Chia, who is from Singapore, says his firm has been approached by about 20 companies from Europe, Southeast Asia and Australia with an interest in investing in communist North Korea’s shaky economy. Chia’s firm was the first wholly owned foreign legal practice in North Korea.
 
“I think there is an upsurge of interest in that country,” said Chia, who is based in Singapore but runs an office of two lawyers in the North Korean capital and has plans to expand.
 
Chia’s recent experience mirrors that of other hardy business people who have persisted with North Korea in the past decade, despite a nuclear crisis and U.S. commercial embargoes. Some business people equate the current level of investor interest with the early 1990s, when foreign companies, including some multinationals, started a spate of investments in the hope that North Korea’s largely self-imposed isolation would end.
 
While the latest round of six-nation talks to dismantle North Korea’s nuclear weapons program remains inconclusive, a handful of Asian and Western investors, some with earlier experience in doing business there, are again considering possibilities in defiance of Washington’s desire to use economic seclusion as a bargaining tool.
 
These investors, mainly manufacturers and miners, are being enticed back by low wages, plentiful mineral resources and a regime that appears increasingly prepared to support foreign investment and open its economy.
 
Pyongyang has signaled plans to open investment promotion offices within its embassies in Singapore and Malaysia, according to Chia, who maintains regular contact with North Korean officials. A revised foreign investment law, passed by the North Korean Supreme People’s Assembly in 2004, relaxed some conditions on foreign investment and permitted full foreign ownership of some ventures. The assembly has also strengthened intellectual property rights laws.
 
A South Korean government official said that Pyongyang also recently started to approve visas for foreign buyers to enter the joint North-South industrial park at Gaeseong, just north of the demilitarized zone. The official said 19 visas had been approved as of mid-July for buyers from Germany, Japan, China and Australia.
 
Investment in Gaeseong is restricted to South Korean companies.
 
Tony Michell, [Korean Associates Business Consultancy]a business consultant based in Seoul, has received permission to take a group of eight investors to North Korea in September in the first of what he said would be monthly investment missions. The first group will comprise European and Asian business people, none of whom are from China or South Korea, the countries with the largest investment in the North.
 
Michell, who introduced a number of companies to North Korea during the last upswing in investment interest from 1993 to 1995, said there had recently been “a revival of interest.”
 
“This comes up to the 1993 level of interest,” said Michell, managing director for Asia of the Euro-Asian Business Consultancy, adding that if the United States dropped its economic embargo “this would be a humdinger of an emerging market.”
 
Still, potential investors in North Korea have to weigh a long history of failure. Of the eight companies Michell introduced during the early 1990s, only one investment survives. An investment bank based in Hong Kong, Peregrine, entered a joint venture to establish Daedong Credit Bank in Pyongyang. Peregrine collapsed, but Daedong is marking a decade in business.
 
The experience of North East Asia Telecom, a Thai firm, is sobering. It set up a mobile phone network, but since May 2004 use of mobile phones has been suspended by the North Korean government as part of a security crackdown.
 
New investment largely dried up after October 2002 when U.S. officials claimed that North Korean officials had admitted during talks to possessing a nuclear weapons program. There is general agreement among investment advisers and economic analysts that if the nuclear impasse can be resolved foreign investment will accelerate.
 
The nuclear crisis erupted as North Korea was implementing a series of measures to open its economy and increase appeal to investors, like giving state-owned enterprises greater freedom to operate commercially, removing price controls and allowing its currency, the won, to be exchanged for the euro, which was adopted in December 2002 for all foreign currency transactions.
 
Analysts of the North Korean economy say those reforms remain largely on track and paved the way for an upsurge of direct investment in 2004 from China, North Korea’s main economic partner. Ahn Ye Hong, who studies the North Korean economy for the Bank of Korea, the South Korean central bank, said that investment from China rose from $1.3 million in 2003 to $173 million in 2004.
 
He said this investment was driven by China’s desire to “obtain as much of North Korea’s resources as it can,” particularly iron ore. He expects a further significant increase in Chinese investment this year.
 
The South Korean government is also seeking to increase direct investment in the North. Although the bulk of South Korean investment has gone into just two projects, Gaeseong and the Mount Geumgang tourism development, recent talks between the two Koreas explored the possibility of investment in upgrading or repairing mines that have fallen into disuse.
 
An official in South Korea’s Ministry of Unification said an inter-Korean economic cooperation meeting in Pyongyang between Sept. 28 and Oct. 1 would discuss the proposal further. The official, who requested anonymity due to restrictions on speaking publicly, said it was likely any South Korean involvement in redevelopment of the mines would be carried out by a joint enterprise between the government and the private sector.

Korea Times
Na Jeong-ju
6/9/2005

South Korean companies setting up operations in the Kaesong industrial complex face difficulties due to a North Korean obligation that they must purchase insurance policies from a North Korean state-run firm.

North Korea demands that South Korean firms have insurance against accidents with a North Korean state-run firm, but they question whether it is financially stable enough to cover all possible accidents.

According to related regulations set up by North Korea last November, South Korean firms in the Kaesong industrial complex must buy insurance policies from North Korean firms. If South Korean companies didn’t follow the rule, they had to pay $10,000 in fines.

South Korean firms regard this rule as unfair.

“We have to buy insurance from a North Korean company despite its inability to cover possible accidents,’’ said an official of a company in the Kaesong complex.

“We have asked the South Korean government to correct this problem because we don’t trust North Korean companies.’’

According to sources, the Unification Ministry, the Financial Supervisory Commission and the Korea Non-Life Insurance Association (KNIA) will hold a meeting today to discuss the matter. The South Korean government has been aware of the problem faced by South Korean companies, but it has delayed notifying the issue to North Korea, the sources said.

“South Korea should have a consultation with North Korea to address insurance matters,’’ a source said. “North Korea may be active in correcting the problem, but it may demand something in return.’’

Currently, a total of 15 South Korean companies have signed contracts with Hyundai Asan, a North Korean business arm of Hyundai Group, to set up a factory in the Kaesong complex. Hyundai Asan has the exclusive rights to develop the Mt. Kumgang tourism complex and the Kaesong complex under agreements signed in 2000.

“South Korean companies have asked the government to check the financial status of the North Korean insurance firm, but they have received no answer,’’ a KNIA official said. “In case of accidents, insurance firms must conduct investigations and check the financial status of policyholders. In this sense, we believe North Korean insurance companies are not capable.’’

North Korea has only one insurance company run by the government, but South Korean companies have little information about it.

The BBC offers a summary of economic conditions in the DPRK:

The focus of the international community’s alarm over North Korea is the isolated nation’s nuclear arsenal, and its refusal to talk about it.

An aspect that is sometimes overlooked is the dire state of its economy, and yet this could be at the heart of the nuclear crisis.

The regime, with few allies in the world, cannot appeal to the sort of humanitarian emotions that African or South Asian nations have in the past.

To ensure the flow of food and oil, it must have a bargaining chip, and its nuclear arsenal is that chip.

Therefore Pyongyang’s diplomatic bluster is inextricably linked to its need to keep what remains of its economy propped up by donations.

North Korea has recently attempted limited reforms to its economy, but these have not been comprehensive or well-enough planned to work.

Pushed into reform

North Korea became an independent state in 1953, and has operated a rigid centrally planned, or “command” economy based on that developed by Stalin in the USSR.

Industry and agriculture are planned on a five-year basis, all farms are collectivised, volume is praised over value and most foods and goods are rationed.

This model initially allowed for rapid industrialisation and rebuilding, but it failed to deliver sustainable growth or raise living standards.

The economy began to collapse, and by the mid-1990s the country was in a state of famine. The industrial base and the agricultural sector have been in decline ever since. Beijing, North Korea’s only real ally, decided to act in October 2001 with an economics lesson for North Korean leader Kim Jong-il.

He was shown round a GM plant and a hi-tech factory in Shanghai, and received a lecture about the benefits of Chinese-style reform.

The Chinese were effectively telling Mr Kim that it was time for change – and that they were fed up with the growing number of refugees fleeing over the Chinese border, and increasing demands for aid.

Mr Kim realised he needed to keep China close, and in June 2002 announced a series of economic reforms.

Pyongyang partially ended rationing and reformed the wages and pricing system.

Retail prices shot up – rice by 55,000%, corn 5,000%, electricity 143% and public transport fares 2,000% – but average wages increased by just 1,818% – from 110 won to 2,000 won (US$22) per month.

It also allowed private farmers’ markets to expand – to provide more goods for the consumers this monetary liberalisation had created.

Another major plank of the reforms was the new investment zone in Sinuiju – and another one in Kaesong, agreed as part of Kim Dae-jung’s Sunshine Policy.

These investment zones used foreign investment to create new economic ventures.

But neither the wage and pricing reform, nor the investment zones, have worked.

Scarce resources

The government had hoped that inflation created by the reforms, if kept under control, would “kick-start” the economy.

But this theory assumed there was a mass of underutilised resources waiting to be kick-started. Twenty-five years of decline meant that these resources were now scarce.

More food found its way into the farmers’ markets, but at prices ordinary people could not afford.

This effective legitimisation of private farming and smuggling across the border from China only succeeded in increasing the availability of goods to the elite – those whose wages were protected or had access to foreign currency.

As for the economic zones, Sinuiju’s position, opposite China’s flourishing economic zone in Dandong, annoyed Beijing.

It consequently arrested the Chinese businessman hired to run Sinuiju, imprisoning him for 18 years for tax evasion and effectively ending the project.

Kaesong survives but all the ventures are foreign-owned, with little benefit, therefore, for North Korea.

By the end of 2002, economic growth was estimated at just 1.2% at best, with the average citizen’s purchasing power severely eroded.

For most ordinary North Koreans, the end result of the reforms was further impoverishment and the eroding of any savings they may have been able to build up.

So, in light of the reforms’ failure, North Korea’s alleged announcement in October 2002 that its country was pursuing an enriched uranium programme could be interpreted as a return to its old bargaining tactics.

The international community responded to the announcement by setting up six-party talks in August 2003.

But the diplomacy is failing because North Korea, with no allies but the increasingly exasperated Chinese, and little prospect of economic revitalisation, needs to ensure a continued drip feed of aid.

That means a hard bargaining process, and Mr Kim has one bargaining chip – his nuclear bombs.

Already twice, as far as we know, Beijing has managed by persuasion, and perhaps a little economic pressure, to get Pyongyang back to the table after talks have stalled.

Now Beijing is trying again. Perhaps what Pyongyang wants most is a serious package of economic aid from China.

China may provide it to get the talking started again.

But the price Beijing will need to demand is that Pyongyang restarts economic reform in earnest, and moves away from the continual brink of collapse that forces it to make desperate diplomatic gambles such as the current crisis.

As for the economy today, it has to all intents and purposes collapsed.

The reforms were limited, and benefited just the elite of the country rather than ordinary people.

The basic structure remains in place and continues to erode the economy.

However, as long as the regime can keep the country isolated, it can survive on this drip-feed indefinitely.

The endgame is simple – regime survival. It is a long-term strategy using diplomatic belligerence and military threat to secure enough aid to maintain power and isolation.

The regime may survive, and may under pressure begin another round of tentative reform, but it seems unlikely that life will improve for ordinary North Koreans any time soon.

Read the full story here:
Economy root to N Korea crisis
BBC
Paul French
2005-4-12

Korea Economic Institute
Oh-Seung Yeul

February 2005

Download in PDF: Oh.pdf

Trade, reform, inter-Korean cooperation, China, IT, aid.

Check it out.

From Chongryun:

On December 11, 2004, the DPRK finalized management, entry and residency regulations, and customs regulations for the Kaesong Industrial Zone.

Set up under a de facto constitution, the “Kaesong Industrial Zone Management Institution” consist of 21 articles.

The Management Institution is a corporation in charge of administrating the region.  People who have experience in these kinds of managemnt fields can work for the Institution, but employees of firm that operate in the zone are no allowed to serve.

The Institution will make annual plans for the development of the zone on its own and carry out the plans and will discuss with the central leading organ of the zone in case an important problem arises in the course of its work.

Entry and residence articles: 30

The regulations apply to South Koreans, overseas Koreans and foreigners who come to the zone from the South or do so by transportation means using the same route. According to the regulations, persons can enter the zone by showing their passports or certificates issued by the management institution.

They can stay in the zone for a long or short term. A short term stay is within 90 days and a long term stay is over 91 days. The extension of their stay is permitted if they applied for it at the immigration office of the industrial zone. Excluded from extended stay are those who are expected to leave the zone within 7 days from their arrival, as well as members of international organizations and foreign missions in South Korea, tourists and those who are not required to register themselves for their stay.

The regulations also clarify the issue of certificates related to entry into the zone, procedures for issuing the certificates of stay and residence registration cards and the extension of their term of validity, orders of deportation from zone, etc.

Customs

According to the regulations, goods, postal matter and persons engaged in transport service who stay in the zone for a certain length of time, can pass through the customs clearance house.

The goods that are sent by organizations and enterprises in the DPRK to the zone are exempt from customs procedures. But customs should be imposed on the goods from other countries which are to be sold in the DPRK as they are, without being processed.

Also clarified in the regulations are the rules of customs registration, the rules of customs exemption and payment, presentation of applications for permits to carry goods into and out from the zone, declaration of postal matter and personal belongings, customs inspection and supervisory institutions, the inspection method of goods to be carried into or carried out from the zone, standard customs rates and calculation methods, etc.

The goods prohibited to be carried into the zone include weapons, bullets, explosives and other materials for military use, narcotics, radioactive material, toxic chemical agents, printed matter that may adversely affect public order and good manners and customs of the nation and listed goods coming from contagious disease-afflicted areas.

Those goods banned to be taken out from the zone include weapons, bullets, explosives, materials for military use, lethal weapons, wireless apparatuses and their accessories, poisonous substances, powerful medicines, narcotics, radioactive material, toxic chemical agents, historical relics, secret documents, printed matter (copies included) and their manuscripts, films, photos, cassettes and video tapes, records, compact disks and other goods which are banned from being carried out under related agreement.

From KCNA:

Regulations of Insurance in Kaesong Industrial Zone Adopted

Pyongyang, October 11 (KCNA) — Decision No. 35 of the Presidium of the DPRK Supreme People’s Assembly “On the Adoption of the Regulations of Insurance in the Kaesong Industrial Zone” dated September 21, Juche 93 (2004) has been published. The decision says the regulations were adopted and the Cabinet and organs concerned of the DPRK are to take working measures for their implementation. 

The regulations consist of 28 articles.

The mission of the regulations is to strictly establish the system and order in the work of insurance in the Kaesong industrial zone so as to help toward stabilizing the business activities and life of those who reside and stay there.

The regulations are applied to the enterprises, branches and offices established in the Kaesong industrial zone.

They are applied also to the south Koreans, overseas Koreans and foreigners who stay and reside in the industrial zone.

From Asia Times:

North Korea has mass-produced computers with Pentium IV processors since 2002, a Russian journalist says in a new book. The confirmation came at a time when the United States and North Korea are in a war of nerves over US and international export control regulations that would ban 15 South Korean firms selected to operate in an industrial complex in the North’s city of Kaesong from bringing in “strategic materials,” including computers.

The South Korean companies said they must be permitted to bring computers with at least Pentium IV chips, which are essential for normal office work, citing earlier unconfirmed reports that the North already began to produce those kinds of computers.

“North Korea has produced computers with Pentium IV processors since 2002, which I saw during my visit to an electric appliance factory in Pyongyang,” Olga PMaltseva, a Vladivostok-based journalist, said in her new book about the North Korean leader, Kim Jong-il.

The Korean translation of the book, titled “A Waltz with Kim Jong Il” was published here on Monday.

“Seven hundred workers and technicians made 14,000 Pentium IV computers in 2002,” she said.

“The factory has produced tens of thousands of computers since 1986 and half of them were exported to Germany.”

There was a similar report by the Choson Sinbo, organ of the pro-Pyongyang General Association of Korean Residents in Japan, in May last year.

The newspaper reported at the time that a North Korean electronic appliance developer has been selling computers with Pentium IV processors in a joint venture with China’s Nanjing Panda Electronics Co since September 2002.

South Korea’s Korea Trade-Investment Promotion Agency (KOTRA) confirmed the report in August last year, citing data from its North Korean counterpart, the International Trade Promotion Committee.

The KOTRA said the North’s electronics firm “Achim (Morning)” and China’s Nanjing Panda have produced three types of Pentium IV computers.

The Russian author is believed to have visited the joint venture factory.

North Korea is classified as a “dangerous country” under the Wassenaar Arrangement, which replaced the Cold War era’s Coordinating Committee for Export Control to Communist Areas in 1996, and thus signatory countries cannot export items classified as “strategic materials” to the communist state.

The items include computers, various metal machinery, laser equipment, high-tech materials and electronic appliances with US-produced parts.

South Korea is among the 33 signatory nations.

An earlier report said the South Korean government is studying ways for the 15 domestic companies to use production equipment, materials and office supplies in Kaesong without conflicts with the U.S.

The Kaesong industrial complex, being built by the Korea Land Corp and Hyundai Asan Corp, a South Korea firm, is one of the most prominent symbols of inter-Korean reconciliation set in motion by the first-ever summit of the leaders of the two countries in 2000.

The developers are scheduled to open Kaesong’s main complex to hundreds of South Korean manufacturers in the first half of next year.

KIEP has published the North Korea Development Report 2003/04 (follow the link to download all several hundred pages!)

Summary: As a result of North Korea’s isolation from the outside world, international
communities know little about the status of the North Korean economy and its
management mechanisms. Although a few recent changes in North Korea’s economic system have attracted international interests, much confusion remains as to the characteristics of North Korea’s recent policy changes and its future direction
due to the lack of information. Therefore, in order to increase the understanding of readers in South Korea and abroad, KIEP is releasing The North Korea Development Report in both Korean and English. The motivation behind this report stemmed from the need for a comprehensive and systematic investigation into North Korea’s socio-economic conditions, while presenting the current status of its industrial sectors and inter-Korean economic cooperation. The publishing of this second volume is important because it not only supplements the findings of the first edition, but also updates the recent changes in the North Korean economy. The topics in this report include macroeconomics and finance, industry and infrastructure, foreign economic relations and inter-Korean economic cooperation, social welfare and science & technology.

This report also covers the ‘July 1 Economic Reform’ launched two years ago and
subsequent changes in the economic management system. The North Korea
Development Report helps to improve the understanding of the contemporary North
Korean economy.
Table of Contents  
 
Part I Macroeconomic Status and Finance
Chapter 1 Current Status of the North Korean Economy and Its Prospects
Chapter 2 National Financial Revenue and Expenditure
Chapter 3 Banking and Price Management

Part II Industrial Management and Problems
Chapter 4 The Industrial Sector
Chapter 5 The Agricultural Sector
Chapter 6 Social Overhead Capital
Chapter 7 Commerce and Distribution Sector
Chapter 8 The Defense Industry

Part III International Economic Activities
Chapter 9 Foreign Economic Relations
Chapter 10 Special Economic Zones
Chapter 11 Inter-Korean Economic Relations

Part IV Social Security and Technology Development
Chapter 12 Social Security and Social Services
Chapter 13 Science and Technology Sector

Part V The Recent Economic Policy Changes
Chapter 14 The Contents and Background for the Recent Policy Changes
Chapter 15 The Features and Problems of the Recent Economic Policy Changes
Chapter 16 Prospects and Future Tasks of the July 1 Economic Reform  

From the BBC:

North Korea has unveiled the terms under which foreign investors will be lured to a ground-breaking industrial zone near the tense border with South Korea.

Two South Korean companies – Korean Land and an arm of the Hyundai conglomerate – are developing an international business park in Kaesong, part of a package of cautious economic reforms in the Stalinist country.

So far, more than 1,000 South Korean firms have enquired about setting up shop in Kaesong, where labour costs will be a tiny fraction of those south of the border.

The North Korean Government now promises investors favourable tax rates, but there are still considerable concerns over whether it will allow businesses much economic freedom.

Most of the companies so far interested in Kaesong are in light manufacturing, particularly textiles.

Depending on their line of business, these firms will be taxed at up to 14%, less than half the rate levied in the South.

Pyongyang is, however, especially keen to lure hi-tech firms, which will be subject to a tax rate of just 10%.

Investors will have to pay a number of other smaller levies, and must adhere to a minimum monthly wage of $50.

Such incentives have sparked a flurry of interest in the South, but many companies remain wary.

They will be forced to hire workers through a North Korean state agency whose powers and attitude remain unclear.

And there is still little confidence in the fundamental stability of North Korea, which has turned to economic reform in recent years, but which remains virulently opposed to most forms of foreign influence.

The Kaesong development does, however, seem to be a relatively permanent arrangement.

It forms part of a large-scale construction project in the region, which is just 50 kilometres northwest of Seoul.

Elsewhere the focus is on tourism, especially scenic Mount Kumgang on the country’s east coast, which Hyundai has been trying to develop for five years, with mixed success.

There is also a Unification Park, which will be the venue for reunions of families split by the country’s division.

Most significant are major road and rail developments which mark the first time the two rival countries have re-established transport links since the end of the Korean war in 1953.

BBC
8/28/2003

North and South Korea have signed a landmark agreement to increase direct trade, the latest step in the slow economic thaw between the two enemies.

According to the agreement, made at bilateral talks unrelated to the simultaneous discussions over nuclear capability, South Korean firms will be encouraged to set up in the North.

The town of Kaesong, just north of the border, has been selected as the site of an industrial park, currently being built by South Korea’s Hyundai.

The two governments will open a corporate liason office in Kaesong, which will deal with the many southern companies keen to exploit cheap northern labour.

Slowly opening

Cross-border economic contacts have become frequent in recent years.

But almost all the $270m (£172m) in north-south trade so far this year has been conducted through intermediary countries, a formality the new agreement aims to dispose of.

The deal represents another step in the extremely slow economic opening of the stalinist North, which long operated in complete isolation from the world economy.

Over the past three years, Pyongyang has reformed its currency, invited visits from foreign investors, cautiously liberalised some prices and planned various – mainly abortive – schemes along the lines of the Kaesong industrial zone.

Reliance on aid

The motivation in much of this, analysts say, is the desperate economic situation in the north.

A series of natural disasters in the 1990s crippled northern agriculture, and the government has done little to put the sector back on its feet.

North Korea – which long rejected outside help – has become increasingly dependent on aid.

This latest agreement concedes to the South the right to oversee the distribution of food aid in the North.