North Korean Economy Watch

Korea Herald
Ko Kyoung-tae
10/16/2007

South Korean experts yesterday called on the government to develop Haeju, a North Korean port which South and North Korean leaders recently agreed to develop as a special zone, into a business hub covering a wide array of industries, from fisheries to manufacturing.

Jeong Hyung-gon, an economist at the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy, recommended in a seminar yesterday that the special zone of Haeju should be transformed into a comprehensive economic zone so as to expand inter-Korean economic ties.

He cited several Chinese free economic zones as good models for the joint-development project. “It should be developed like Shenzhen or Dongguan,” Jeong said.

These two coastal cities have been locomotives of China’s red-hot economic growth since the Beijing administration opened them to the global economy in the late 1970s.

Jeong’s speech implies that North Korea should also substantially open Haeju to foreign investors, including South Korean companies.

South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun and North Korean leader Kim Jong-il recently agreed to transform this harbor city into another joint industrial complex.

A special peace zone will be set up along the coast of Haeju, with the purpose of developing joint fisheries and establishing a new economic zone.

The city is geographically advantageous to South Korean manufacturers because it is close to Incheon Port, the nation’s second-largest harbor.

“The Haeju project and Gaeseong Industrial Complex should be complementary to each other,” Jeong said.

But he cautioned that Seoul and Pyongyang should settle their dispute over the Northern Limit Line in the West Sea, in order to effectively operate the Haeju special zone.

The sea border was unilaterally drawn by the U.N. forces at the end of the 1950-53 Korean War, but there has been no legal agreement on the demarcation between the two Koreas.

This has caused frequent military and diplomatic conflicts, including two deadly naval clashes in the West Sea, and has been a major obstacle to co-developing Haeju.

Choson Ilbo
Song Hee-young
10/8/2007

One of the facts confirmed in the second inter-Korean summit is that North Korea is willing to push ahead with an open economic policy. Though he is reportedly averse to the terms of reform and opening, North Korean leader Kim Jong-il agreed to add Haeju, Nampo, Anbyeon and Mt. Baekdu as open areas, along with Mt. Kumgang and the Kaesong Industrial Complex. He also permitted opening infrastructure like railroads and ports.

Slow as it is, the direction of the flow can be confirmed. It resembles China’s early opening stage from the late 1970s to early 1980s when Deng Xioaping first pushed his reform policies.

Considering the pace, outsiders were pessimistic about reform in China then, and they predicted failure for companies that invested there. By the 1990s, however, it was clear that tremendous changes had taken place.

Korean entrepreneurs doing business in Kaesong and Mt. Gumgang believe that the North won’t move backwards now. Projects in those areas continued unhindered even during the nuclear test crisis, they point out. Unlike in the past, minor problems are eventually resolved through dialogue, albeit slowly, they testify.

“Now the North Koreans know the taste of money,” one businessman said, and they have begun to feel the fever for making more. A primitive sort of capitalist consciousness is growing, he said, and North Koreans are beginning to realize that making profits through a steady business is better than hoping for a windfall from the millions in aid money the Kim Dae-jung administration donated to the regime.

Having suffered through the Korean War, armed commando raids, naval skirmishes off the western coast and the nuclear crises, many South Koreans might dismiss the changes. Businessmen who were forced to hand over computers and fax machines as “entrance fees” or “meeting charges” when they visited Pyongyang may insist that nothing will change unless the regime is replaced.

But Mao Zedong’s Red Guards were also never expected to change, but they emerged as major Wall Street investors in three decades. If they truly feel the taste of money, there is no reason why the generations that follow Kim Jong-il will not change.

Now that we’ve seen the signs of such change, however small, we have to transform our formula for investing in the North. The government, above all, has to abandon its stance of controlling, coordinating and managing cross-border investment. The time has come to trust our businessmen. There should be no special treatment simply because the counterpart is North Korea; instead the government should leave investment in the North up to the investors, as it does with Vietnam and Africa.

Our corporations have had plenty of experience in the North. Daewoo, Hyundai, the Peace Motors Corp. owned by the Unification Church, and not a small number of small- and medium-sized firms have invested across the border. Many have come back with bitter tales, but now they can distinguish promising projects from dubious ones. They have paid their tuition.

What’s more, South Korean entrepreneurs have accumulated experience in making money in other dictatorial socialist countries, such as China, Russia and Eastern European nations, accessing the top leaders and breaking through bureaucratic barriers. In dealing with communists, businessmen can be far more competitive than public servants.

Nevertheless, the government requires advance notification when any South Korean company wants to contact North Korea, and the Unification Ministry and National Intelligence Service often get involved with even the smallest details. As it is now, North Korea asks our government what it can request from our businesses and the president had to be accompanied by a group of conglomerate heads when he visited Pyongyang.

Businesses that are forced to deal with our close-minded public servants in addition to the North Korean regime are liable to abandon cross-border plans altogether, especially when profitability is questionable. This is why the larger businesses have in many cases been the most reluctant to invest in the North.

Now that the opening of North Korea at last seems certain, it’s time that we adopted the same formula that succeeded in China. It was our businessmen who rushed into China first, and they contributed toward reconciliation and establishment of diplomatic ties between the two countries. We went through the same procedures in Russia and Vietnam.

The idea that the government should be the one to build industrial parks and conduct business and wage negotiations in North Korea is outmoded. When it comes to investing across the border, the government’s job should be to guarantee business freedoms. Then the investors should be left to negotiate with the regime and work out how to make money.

Version 5: Download it here (on Google Earth) 

This map covers North Korea’s agriculture, aviation, cultural locations, manufacturing facilities, railroad, energy infrastructure, politics, sports venues, military establishments, religious facilities, leisure destinations, and national parks. It is continually expanding and undergoing revisions. This is the fifth version.

Additions to the latest version of “North Korea Uncovered” include updates to new Google Earth overlays of Sinchon, UNESCO sites, Railroads, canals, and the DMZ, in addition to Kim Jong Suk college of eduation (Hyesan), a huge expansion of the electricity grid (with a little help from Martyn Williams) plus a few more parks, antiaircraft sites, dams, mines, canals, etc.

Disclaimer: I cannot vouch for the authenticity of many locations since I have not seen or been to them, but great efforts have been made to check for authenticity. These efforts include pouring over books, maps, conducting interviews, and keeping up with other peoples’ discoveries. In many cases, I have posted sources, though not for all. This is a thorough compilation of lots of material, but I will leave it up to the reader to make up their own minds as to what they see. I cannot catch everything and I welcome contributions.

I hope this map will increase interest in North Korea. There is still plenty more to learn, and I look forward to receiving your additions to this project.

Yonhap
10/5/2007

Leaders of the two Koreas discussed issues relating to oil field development and exploration at the latest summit in Pyongyang, South Korea’s top economic policymaker said Friday.

“The oil development issue was discussed at the summit, and North Korean leader Kim Jong-il expressed keen interest in the South’s oil field and gas exploration projects,” Finance Minister Kwon O-kyu said in a press briefing.

“South Korea also discussed the development of resources in North Korea, including oil fields.”

Kwon said the oil development issue may continue to be discussed at talks of the proposed Joint Committee for Inter-Korean Economic Cooperation, a committee to be formed through upgrading the status of the existing Inter-Korean Economic Cooperation Promotion Committee in an effort to accelerate bilateral economic cooperation.

Kwon played down concerns about potential financial burdens on the government from proposed inter-Korean business projects.

At the three-day summit, ended Thursday, the two Koreas agreed on a range of cross-border business projects, including creation of a special economic zone at the North’s western port city of Haeju, development of an existing port of Haeju, and expansion of an industrial complex in the North Korean border town of Kaesong.

The two also agreed to jointly repair and maintain the North’s dilapidated expressway linking Kaesong and Pyongyang, as well as the North’s railway between Kaesong and Sinuiju on the North’s western Chinese border.

The two countries also decided to construct an inter-Korean joint shipbuilding complex in Nampo, near Pyongyang.

South Korea will be able to finance the development of Haeju port through a proposed 2 trillion won (US$2.2 billion) overseas port development fund, which will be created by the nation’s port authority, Kwon said.

In a related note, Maritime Minister Kang Moo-hyun said in a meeting with reporters that about 220 billion won will be spent for the development of the port which will have eight berths, including two container berths.

The government will also able to attract international cooperation for repairing the railways since it is part of a wider international railway project of Trans-Siberian Railway, he said.

South Korean shipyards, which hold a combined 45 percent share of the global market, by investing in the envisioned shipbuilding complex will be able to maintain their competitiveness through access to North Korea’s cheap labor, Kwon said.

In case of the summit’s impact on domestic financial markets, Kwon declined to make concrete predictions, but said rising expectations of improving profitability and competitiveness by domestic businesses might be able to boost investor spirits.

Korea Times
10/5/2007

More than $11 billion is needed to implement cross-border business projects that the leaders of the two Koreas agreed to at the historic summit this week, a local research institute estimated Friday.

Wrapping up a three-day summit, the second one since 2000, South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun and North Korean leader Kim Jong-il on Thursday agreed to a number of inter-Korean business projects.

According to Hyundai Research Institute, the development of a special economic zone in Haeju, the North’s western port city, will cost about $4.6 billion. Around $2.5 billion will be spent to finance the expansion of an industrial complex in the North Korean border city of Kaesong.

A project to build leisure facilities around Mount Baekdu is expected to cost $1.3 billion, the research institute said.

The estimated cost, when it is financed over five years, is equivalent to 8.75 percent of the North’s gross domestic income, and 0.25 percent of the South’s gross domestic product, Hyundai Research said.

The two leaders called for rapidly expanding the South-supported industrial park in the North’s border town of Kaesong and launching cross-border freight transportation via an inter-Korean railway between the South’s Munsan and the North’s Pongdong.

The two Koreas also agreed to jointly repair and maintain the North’s dilapidated expressway linking Kaesong and Pyongyang, as well as the North’s railway between Kaesong and Sinuiju on the North’s western Chinese border.

As part of a bilateral agreement to boost relations in tourism, history, language, education, culture, sport and art, the Koreas agreed to open a direct air route between Seoul and Mount Paekdu, allowing South Koreans to tour the scenic North Korean mountain on the North’s northern border with China.

The research institute, meanwhile, projected that the North would get $138 billion worth of economic benefits and the South $4.8 billion should the inter-Korean business projects be implemented as planned.

Institute for Far East Studies
NK Brief No. 07-10-4-2

1. The South and the North shall uphold and endeavor actively to realize the June 15 Declaration.

The South and the North have agreed to resolve the issue of unification on their own initiative and according to the spirit of “by-the-Korean-people-themselves.”

The South and the North will work out ways to commemorate the June 15 anniversary of the announcement of the South-North Joint Declaration to reflect the common will to faithfully carry it out.

2. The South and the North have agreed to firmly transform inter-Korean relations into ties of mutual respect and trust, transcending the differences in ideology and systems.

The South and the North have agreed not to interfere in the internal affairs of the other and agreed to resolve inter-Korean issues in the spirit of reconciliation, cooperation and reunification.

The South and the North have agreed to overhaul their respective legislative and institutional apparatuses in a bid to develop inter-Korean relations in a reunification-oriented direction.

The South and the North have agreed to proactively pursue dialogue and contacts in various areas, including the legislatures of the two Koreas, in order to resolve matters concerning the expansion and advancement of inter-Korean relations in a way that meets the aspirations of the entire Korean people.

3. The South and the North have agreed to closely work together to put an end to military hostilities, mitigate tensions and guarantee peace on the Korean Peninsula.

The South and the North have agreed not to antagonize each other, reduce military tension, and resolve issues in dispute through dialogue and negotiation.

The South and the North have agreed to oppose war on the Korean Peninsula and to adhere strictly to their obligation to nonaggression.

The South and the North have agreed to designate a joint fishing area in the West Sea to avoid accidental clashes. The South’’s Minister of Defense and the North’’s Minister of the People’’s Armed Forces have also agreed to hold talks in Pyongyang this November to discuss military confidence-building measures, including military guarantees covering the plans and various cooperative projects for making this joint fishing area into a peace area.

4. The South and the North both recognize the need to end the current armistice regime and build a permanent peace regime. The South and the North have also agreed to work together to advance the matter of having the leaders of the three or four parties directly concerned to convene on the Peninsula and declare an end to the war.

With regard to the nuclear issue on the Korean Peninsula, the South and the North have agreed to work together to implement smoothly the September 19, 2005 Joint Statement and the February 13, 2007 Agreement achieved at the Six-Party Talks.

5. The South and the North have agreed to facilitate, expand, and further develop inter-Korean economic cooperation projects on a continual basis for balanced economic development and co-prosperity on the Korean Peninsula in accordance with the principles of common interests, co-prosperity and mutual aid.

The South and the North reached an agreement on promoting economic cooperation, including investments, pushing forward with the building of infrastructure and the development of natural resources. Given the special nature of inter-Korean cooperative projects, the South and the North have agreed to grant preferential conditions and benefits to those projects.

The South and the North have agreed to create a “special peace and cooperation zone in the West Sea” encompassing Haeju and vicinity in a bid to proactively push ahead with the creation of a joint fishing zone and maritime peace zone, establishment of a special economic zone, utilization of Haeju harbor, passage of civilian vessels via direct routes in Haeju and the joint use of the Han River estuary.

The South and the North have agreed to complete the first-phase construction of the Gaeseong Industrial Complex at an early date and embark on the second-stage development project. The South and the North have agreed to open freight rail services between Munsan and Bongdong and promptly complete various institutional measures, including those related to passage, communication, and customs clearance procedures.

The South and the North have agreed to discuss repairs of the Gaeseong-Sinuiju railroad and the Gaeseong-Pyongyang expressway for their joint use.

The South and the North have agreed to establish cooperative complexes for shipbuilding in Anbyeon and Nampo, while continuing cooperative projects in various areas such as agriculture, health and medical services and environmental protection.

The South and the North have agreed to upgrade the status of the existing Inter-Korean Economic Cooperation Promotion Committee to a Joint Committee for Inter-Korean Economic Cooperation to be headed by deputy prime minister-level officials.

6. The South and the North have agreed to boost exchanges and cooperation in the social areas covering history, language, education, science and technology, culture and arts, and sports to highlight the long history and excellent culture of the Korean people.

The South and the North have agreed to carry out tours to Mt. Baekdu and open nonstop flight services between Seoul and Mt. Baekdu for this purpose.

The South and the North have agreed to send a joint cheering squad from both sides to the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games. The squad will use the Gyeongui Railway Line for the first-ever joint Olympic cheering.

7. The South and the North have agreed to actively promote humanitarian cooperation projects.

The South and the North have agreed to expand reunion of separated family members and their relatives and promote exchanges of video messages.

To this end, the South and the North have agreed to station resident representatives from each side at the reunion center at Mt. Geumgang when it is completed and regularize reunions of separated family members and their relatives.

The South and the North have agreed to actively cooperate in case of emergencies, including natural disasters, according to the principles of fraternal love, humanitarianism and mutual assistance.

8. The South and the North have agreed to increase cooperation to promote the interests of the Korean people and the rights and interests of overseas Koreans on the international stage.

The South and the North have agreed to hold inter-Korean prime ministers” talks for the implementation of this Declaration and have agreed to hold the first round of meetings in November 2007 in Seoul.

The South and the North have agreed that their highest authorities will meet frequently for the advancement of relations between the two sides.

Oct. 4, 2007

Pyongyang
[Document signed by both Roh Moo-hyun and Kim Jong Il]